[412-code-talk] Fwd: Who won the Olympics? A spreadsheet tells ya

Mark Rauterkus Mark at rauterkus.com
Fri Aug 20 09:15:05 EDT 2021


---- Forwarded message ---------
From: Sportkid Newsletter <sportkid at substack.com>

The Games are much more than a simple medal count. A sensible scoring
system could add a new layer of excitement to the quadrennial spectacle.
This letter proposes a framework for such a
system. ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌
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<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVkltvozAQhX9NeEvkC8bwwEO3FRHZhmhV0kR9QcYeEgeCEZhQ8uvXbboPK_kinTlHI803Ulg4mX6OOzNY7-sp7NxB3MI0NGAt9N44QF9oFQcMYcKop2Jf4ZCFnh6Kqge4Ct3Eth_B68ay0VJYbdqvAOGcOf85rnjIKgqhlIhxVpaR9MMgoLxiXBAi_EdfMSoNrYQYbtDPpgWvic_WdsOCPi1I4s7Qmd7WWq2GsRyskPVKmqvTO3ens1lOpl3aMyxNM187LV0wsaaGdkFfYN5gSd7nI2nq9GJIlj99bi_7--vzZipphn70-y5PcXZ_otnbpMUhQU77zC4py172ZJdvZ-fvJN3qnd5M6pDa7UXSLN_fUz1pSd-182u5ju7qGc8fh-Si1s2t1JtotQvrtDjkr81Jj0m-puvfyZ8uuR2RxCmomh9_fSxNb1D-tvd0TBDBKCQIIzdBvMIrqahCTFZY-EHlR-BLAZwTXrpyiHm18NH1RP4bjNfHV9HXrtKL0YGsx-FbdpQK91_HVtu5gFaUDagHQPtYg2-kxQla6N16qELYGAck8lkQUYpw9ODlCNOIMI4481xfZVyqjf8x-gtOZ8nu>
Who won the Olympics?
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVkltvozAQhX9NeEvkC8bwwEO3FRHZhmhV0kR9QcYeEgeCEZhQ8uvXbboPK_kinTlHI803Ulg4mX6OOzNY7-sp7NxB3MI0NGAt9N44QF9oFQcMYcKop2Jf4ZCFnh6Kqge4Ct3Eth_B68ay0VJYbdqvAOGcOf85rnjIKgqhlIhxVpaR9MMgoLxiXBAi_EdfMSoNrYQYbtDPpgWvic_WdsOCPi1I4s7Qmd7WWq2GsRyskPVKmqvTO3ens1lOpl3aMyxNM187LV0wsaaGdkFfYN5gSd7nI2nq9GJIlj99bi_7--vzZipphn70-y5PcXZ_otnbpMUhQU77zC4py172ZJdvZ-fvJN3qnd5M6pDa7UXSLN_fUz1pSd-182u5ju7qGc8fh-Si1s2t1JtotQvrtDjkr81Jj0m-puvfyZ8uuR2RxCmomh9_fSxNb1D-tvd0TBDBKCQIIzdBvMIrqahCTFZY-EHlR-BLAZwTXrpyiHm18NH1RP4bjNfHV9HXrtKL0YGsx-FbdpQK91_HVtu5gFaUDagHQPtYg2-kxQla6N16qELYGAck8lkQUYpw9ODlCNOIMI4481xfZVyqjf8x-gtOZ8nu>The
Games are much more than a simple medal count. A sensible scoring system
could add a new layer of excitement to the quadrennial spectacle. This
letter proposes a framework for such a system.

<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVkEluxCAQRU_T7GIBBmMWLLLJNSyGcjdqDIghkW8fuq0sIpWqUA36_Gd1g3sqp8qpNvRKWzszqAg_NUBrUFCvUDbv1MIxoXxGTjFHVr4iX7e9ABzaB9VKB5S7Cd7q5lN8HVAh-Nh_qFVyuUrnsFmp5IRJyo2d3WIsAa25vXR1dx6iBQXfUM4UAQX1aC3X2_x5o18jak6lPb2baje1afucbDpGP0PKAcaDLoQsgvEP40P4yMVbQF5RTAleKSZ4fIdMZLJudpjbnWi27EwCsxqEoMKM8UrEfmP4uNN_KqioQ5fnmBTdB5Vnr-_2sLyNevTo27lB1CaAu2i0i-mbz3aHCGWwdptuiixUMr7IecZEXuYHrnlgEVhwNHRdGldR_Rn-BccYjLQ>
Bill Price
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Aug 20
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Good morning and thanks for your continued support for The Sportkid
Newsletter.
*Housekeeping*

Feedback, tips, and ideas are always welcome and you can contact me at
price at sportkid.asia. Or, if you're reading this on the Sportkid Substack
you can leave comments directly under each article.

Other articles on this topic:

   -

   Who won the SEA Games?
   <https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVkMmOhSAQRb_msdMwii5Y9KZ_wyCUSlQwDG38--Y904tOqoqkhlzuMTrDEuKtzpAyepcx3ycoD1faIWeIqCSIo7OqE5hQwZBV3JJe9MilcY4Ah3a7yrEAOsu0O6OzC_59QKUUdX9V1vTcdhaoHtgErO8Z5vNsZ4OFIYTIR1cX68AbUPAD8Q4e0K7WnM_0Yl8v-l0jnSHmzdk2lSllbbbWhKP2z5rXGpor-Cav0CTQzaIPSMgpiinBPcUE17-QlrTGMlt1Z6J5N_MBuNEgJZVTHfdEzi-Oj4X-k0BRHTpudRJ1qUi2kj7t6nes71G8y_cIXk872AdFfoB-4IwLeIgVtB11VqSjAxfdwBgmw-O8smIDFRJLgaquDfXKqz-3v3LqjR8>
   -

   Who won the Asian Games?
   <https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVkMuOhCAQRb-m2bXhKbpgMZv5DYNQKFHB8JiOfz90m1lMQkGlHrncY3SBJaZLnTEX9L6mcp2gArzyDqVAQjVDmrxVvcCECoas4pYMYkA-Ty4BHNrvqqQK6Kzz7o0uPob3ApVStPm1JcZZjJ0AGK0mgxNEcMbczC3vJTa3rq7WQzCg4AfSFQOgXa2lnPnBvh70u518xlQ2b7tc51y02ToTj1Y_W7zW-HzF8CwrPHX2OjwXfUBGXlFMCR4oJrj9hnSkM5ZZLIwjmveOj8CNBimpnFt7INI9OD4W-k8EJXXotLVO0rVB2Wr-lJvjqb1HDb5cEwQ972BvGOVG-sEzLRAgNdR20kWRno5c9CNjmIy390aLjVRILAVquja2raD-_P4CdciNwg>
   -

   Who won the Commonwealth Games?
   <https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVkMuOhSAMhp_msNNwEZEFi9nMaxiEqkQFw2WMbz-cY2YxSdvF3zZ_-xmdYQnxVmdIGb3LmO8TlIcr7ZAzRFQSxNFZ1XNMKGfIqs6SgQ_IpXGOAId2u8qxADrLtDujswv-vUCF4HV-VZPsCBPzZDSToqMSD7KnFCiXMEhr6OOri3XgDSj4gXgHD2hXa85nerGvF_2ukc4Q8-Zsm8qUsjZba8JR9bPmtYbmCr7JKzRVPYK_QO95bRZ9QGo0copiSvBAMcH1LNKS1lhmMTcz0V0_dxI6o0EIKqbaHoiYXx0-FvrPDUV16LjVTtSl0tlK-sj19fFtW7zL9wheTzvYh0p-2H44jQt4iJW5HXVWpKey471kDBP5QKjYmKRcYMFR9bWhbnn19_gvLl-QqA>

*Dive into the numbers yourself.* Get a copy of the 2020 Olympic Scoring by
Sport
<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkcluxCAMhp9mOEYsISQHDr2Mpupy6mGml4iAk9AsRCwd5e1LGgmwZP-_bX1oFWFwfpebCxEdTxv3DeQKzzBDjOBRCuBba2TFMaGcISNLQ2peIxva3gMsys4y-gRoS91stYrWrYeBCsGzfpRM9z3rupr2WOiurKuG0zo3ERVVuqP0nKuSsbBqkPALfncroFmOMW7hwl4u9JqPcToUg3PDDIV2S86EzYMyYQSI4RDkS36oSIufvt4cwX0axf1xe2C4kfrDfu_JX5v3z9cnG4a7fWa5dtuOrKSYElxTTHBemRSk0IYZzHVPVFn1ZQOlViAEFV0u10T0lxIvAy1C6kJUejr2QV4uyk-54lXK5KYU_tMZS5vjklYb9xZW1c1gTmLx5P7PsB1gBZ__w7QqSlLRpuRVwxgmzQkoI2UN5QILjvJc47JrlWFzPk7W_AHVXJjy>
dataset. As usual, it's a Google Sheets document so click 'Make a copy'
when asked.

Word of mouth is the best way to promote content like this, so if you know
someone who might be interested in this article please share it with them.

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------------------------------
*Who won the Olympics?*

No country actually *wins* the Olympics. Even though the media rehashes the
medal count everyday, the Games are not officially scored. This is true of
all multi-sport events, Pan American Games, Asian Games, etc., no country
walks away with the gold, so to speak. However, and precisely because there
is no official method for determining an overall winner, the public and
media long ago settled on the gold medal count as the *de facto* standard
for declaring victory. While this is an easy way to measure success it's
certainly not the best way.

In this letter I suggest two ways to evaluate performance in multi-sport
events:

   1.

   Use a point system for each medal. I have discussed this idea in
   previous articles (linked in the housekeeping section above). In keeping
   with the gold, silver, and bronze logic I suggest a 5-3-1 point structure.
   2.

   Scoring each sport separately—as a separate tournament within the
   multi-sport Games—and then total the sport results to determine a Games
   winner.

Changes resulting from either of these ideas are administrative and occur
in the background. Neither method requires any changes to how the current
Games are conducted.
*The **gold** standard*

First, let's review what the Tokyo medal count looks like.Table 1 shows the
Top 20 teams from Tokyo based on their total gold medal count. This is what
is unofficially used to gauge national performance in the Olympics. It's
all over the media during the Games and it's presented as the final result
for the 2020 Tokyo games.

<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUkuO5CAMPU1ll4hvgAWL1khzjYiPk44qgTSQ7qk5_TiV1UjINjb2M34OrsGSy8seubbuElN7HWAT_NQNWoPSnRXKtEY7SkKZ5F20IlItdbfWaS4Au1s328oJ3XH6bQ2urTldCUwpie8_LcgYddRKe6MdozCP1I3iCrLADIw3rjvjCimAhW8or5yg2-xna0d98I8H-40nxDTU09fmwnMIeUfXursFUM_QwuelsUzLD_br6zb4x5JzxPu8TUfJS4Fa129Af20AB2bcEPgxBJEXDAp_hidgvPRApPdBi947x3vBFfRGUt276DnzoJTRYqh8cLv7m5P7qXdfWOMextt8N1nf5syEGglAP4fIehEC9FrR0BsxK6f9aHygkzHij9FsONLSrZYRRolmhBIcGB3oECKPRIaZOjHOwoAIDhthymNYUzU_BNkX9t-kumJ3V54YKTgWKM_z3ejF2IR6P9PaXhMk5zeIN5ntXok3vdMCCQquSpxcs3RkRsjRcE6oublDtrlhUhElO8SNGbOSrUcu7bnGf3EixzY>

There were 205 countries and a refugee team that participated in Tokyo. Of
the 93 countries that won medals; 65 of them took home at least one of the
340 gold medals offered. Most of the 46 sports were contested in a men's
and women's category. Two sports, artistic swimming and rhythmic
gymnastics, were for women only and equestrian conducted a mixed-only
competition. Eleven other sports offered a limited number of mixed events
in addition to the sport's traditional men's and women's categories.

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The Olympic Games is a variety show of sports and gold medals don't tell
the full story. They don't reveal the strength of teams participating in a
contest, nor does the gold tally reveal anything about the Games *as a
competition* all by itself.

Additionally, there is a huge difference in how medals are distributed.
Team sports usually offer just two medals, men's and women's, while
individual sports are able to offer a number of different events, thus a
larger number of medals.

These differences are due to the nature of team and individual sports, of
course, but it's hard to understand why football, a sport played
enthusiastically by countries around the globe earns only one medal while
much less popular or expensive sports can offer more—in some cases many
more. In athletics, for example, 48 medals are contested with an odd 49th
thrown in for a mixed relay

The almost exclusive emphasis on gold medals originates with the media and
is mostly unquestioned by quadrennial, media-created fans. Devising ways to
recognize the value of silver and bronze medals is an  exercise for
insiders who realize that the true scope of performance within the Games is
lost when only gold medals seem important.
*Value each medal by using points*

In Table 2 a point system has been applied to each medal: Five points for
gold medals, three for silver, and one for bronze. Using points the ROC and
Japan flip their Table 1 positions; Ukraine and Spain are now in the Top
20; a few others shift slightly; Norway and Kenya are out.

<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUkuO5CAMPU1ll4hfAixYtEaaa0R8TDqqBNJAuqfm9ONUViMh29jYz_jZ2wZLLi9z5Nq6S8ztdYBJ8FM3aA1Kd1Yo8xrMNBLKRt4FIwJVo-rWOscCsNt1M62c0B2n21Zv25rTlcCkHPH9pwlESOZ4mDTnSrAoJyXJNBHHhNSU8BvXnmGF5MHAN5RXTtBt5rO1oz74x4P9xuNDGurparP-Ofi8o2vd7QKoIzT_eWks0_KD_fq6Df6x5BzwHrf5KHkpUOv6DeivDeDAjBsCP4Yg4wWDwp3-CRgvPZDROa9E76zlveASej1S1dvgOHMgpVZiqHywu_2bk_2pd19Y4x7G23w3Wd9mtDLYqFlPncR6RHGszGIvIpuUi1Q4L2etxR-tyHCkpVsNI4wSxQglOE060MEHHsjoI7ViikKD8BYbYdJhWFEZH4LsC_tvUl0xuy1PjBQcC5Tn-W70YmxGvZ9pba8ZknUbhJvMdq_Em955gQQFVyXMthk6MS3Gi0xC9c0dss01GyWRY4e4IWNWMvXIpT3X8A_n0cXD>

The point system makes it possible to calculate a points-per-athlete (PPA)
metric relative to team size, or as in Table 2, relative to the number of
men and women a country entered. A combined  PPA appears in Table 3.

<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUkuO5CAMPU1ll4hvAgsWrZHmGhEfk4oqgTSQ7q4-_bgqq5GQbWzsZ_zsbYMll6c5cm3dS8zteYBJ8F03aA1Kd1Yo8xrMKAllknfBiECVVN1a51gAdrtuppUTuuN02-ptW3N6JbBpkvj-bkYhJAQvggUXlYoycDWRyMCNko6BX7j2DCskDwa-oDxzgm4z99aOeuMfN_YXjw9pqKerzfrH4POOrnW3C6CO0Pz9pbFMyzf25_My-MeSc8B73Oaj5KVAresXoL82gAMzLgj8GILIFwwKd_oHYLz0QKRzXoneWct7wSfotaSqt8Fx5mCatBJD5YPd7W9O9rtefWGNaxhv891kfZvSa6YiFiDCkl7EIHtlg-qVlgG0xopazJRL9UMJFcORlm41jDBKFCOU4DzpQAcfeCDSR2rFGIUG4S22wiaHYUWneBNkX9h_s-qK2W15YKTgYKA8znerL85m1PuZ1vacIVm3QbjobNdSvAmeF0hQcFnCbJuhI9NCjppzQvXFHvLNNZMTmWSHuCFjVjL1yKU91vAPHqTHXw>

Table 4 expands the PPA idea and applies it to a country's population for
calculating a points-per-million (PPM) metric. This tends to favor smaller
countries but I have a hunch that it may also be telling us something about
sport capitalization but I don't know what this is...yet. Note that Table 4
is limited to countries with populations over 1 million.

<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUsuO5CAM_JrOLRHPAAcOo5X2NyIeTjrqBDJAZqbn69fdOa2EbGNjqnARXIMll6c9cm3dy0zteYBN8F03aA1Kd1Yo0xrtKAllknfRiki11N1ap7kA7G7dbCsndMfptzW4tub0amBKSTx_t44aNRtFtSbgg6QEQIY46hFmDUaSC9edcYUUwMIXlGdO0G323tpRb_zjxv7iCjEN9fS1ufAYQt4xte5uAfQztHB_ebym5Rv783kF_GPJOeJ-3qaj5KVAresXYL42gAM7Lgh8GILIFwwaf4YHYL30QKT3QYveO8d7wRX0RlLdu-g586CU0WKofHC7-83JfdeLF95xDeMdvknWdwjjaORM5l5FoXoxa95rN_o-SEa4dsYISSY1sh9KqBiOtHSrZYRRohmhBMdJBzqEyCORYaZOjLMwIIJDJkx5LGuq5psg-8L-G1VX7O7KAysF5wLlcb6ZviSb0O9nWttzguT8BvFSs11_4q3vtECCgn8lTq5ZOjLkORrOCTWXeCg3N0wqomSHuDFjV7L1yKU91vgPcMzGbQ>

*A better way: Score the sports, not the medals*

While the point system recognizes value in each medal it obscures sport
specific information in the same way the gold medal standard does; the
Games remain a mostly individual showcase. There is a better way to treat
the Olympic Games as the *multi-sport event* that it is; score each sport
separately, awarding points for first, second, and third place in each
sport tournament; and then adding those points—*game points*—to get a Games
winner.

The judo example in Table 5 shows how this works. Countries are ranked
according to the points they score within the competition using the 5-3-1
system based on medals won in the 15 events contested in the judo
tournament. These are called 'sport points' in the table and are used to
determine the outcome of the judo tournament itself. The top three
countries (or in the judo example the top four, due to a tie on the men's
side) are then awarded game points, which go toward their overall score in
the Games. This is done in all three categories: Men, Women, and Mixed if
it exists. In judo, Japan won both the men's and women's categories and
received 5 game points for each, and 3 game points for their second place
finish in the mixed category for a total of 13 points from the judo
competition. Only the top three countries in each *sport* receive game
points toward their Games score.

<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUsuO5CAM_JrOLRHPQA4cRivtb0Q8TDrqBDJAZqbn69fdOa2EsMHYZarsbYMll6c5cm3da5vb8wCT4Ltu0BqU7qxQ5jWYURLKJO-CEYFqqbu1zrEA7HbdTCsndMfpttXbtub0SmBKSXx_NxPnilk5Rh09p5wRAiBs9JpT6ZWyF649wwrJg4EvKM-coNvMvbWj3vjHjf3F5UMa6ulqs_4x-Lzj1brbBdBGaP7-slim5Rv783k5_GPJOeA5bvNR8lKg1vUL8L42gAMzLgj8GILIFwxu7vQPwHjpgUjnvBa9s5b3givoJ0l1b4PjzIFSkxZD5YPd7W9O9rtefWGNi4y3-26yvt1pdGz00vU2Ot0LGTmWUqHXSoDTzlER-UwlYT_I8HCkpVsNI4wSzQglSCcd6OADD0T6SK0Yo5hAeIudMOUwrKmKN0H2hf1HVVfMbssDIwV5gfI4352-JJvR7mda23OGZN0G4VKzXTPx1ndeIEHBWQmzbYaObBJyRFkJnS7xUG4-MamIkh3ihoxZydQjl_ZYwz_SJMc9>

Table 6 shows what the Tokyo result would look like if this sport scoring
system were used. In Tokyo Great Britain won the men's competition and the
United States won the women's and the combined competitions.

<https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUsuO5CAM_JrOLRHPQA4cRivtb0Q8nAzqBDJAZrb369fpnFYCDBhXGZe9bbDm8jJHrq27lrm9DjAJfuoGrUHpzgpljsGMklAmeReMCFRL3cU6LwVgt3EzrZzQHafborct5nQFMKUkvv80xFqnJE4vtXAevCMBrA5slCA1kJvXniFC8mDgG8orJ-g289naUR_848F-4_AhDfV0tVn_HHze8SrudgW0CzT_eVmEafnBfn3dG_6x5hzwvGzzUfJaoNb4DXhfG8CBETcFfgxJ5EWDizv9E9BfeiDSOa9F76zlveAK-klS3dvgOHOg1KTFUPlgd_s3J_tT77wQ4y7Ge_tOst7Ik_bc6gnxJOnFyC8o4nukEZQ7wadAZq3YH0oYGY60dtEwwijRjFCC5aQDHXzggUi_UCvGRUwgvMVMmHLo1lQtD0H2lf1Xqq6Y3ZYnegrWBcrzfGd6STaj3c8U22uGZN0G4Vaz3T3x1ndeIUHBXgmzbYaObBJynDgndLrFQ7n5xKQiSnbIGzJGJVOPXNozhn86Ocd3>

These changes would only add an administrative component to the results, so
for the spectator everything would remain exactly as it is now. An official
scoring system could create an extra layer of interest and drama, thus
focusing on how each sport's result impacts the overall standings. Most
importantly a scoring system would recognize the value of each medal,
something that is not done now.
------------------------------

Thanks for reading the Sportkid Newsletter. Comments are always welcome and
if you have ideas for future articles please let me know.

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