{news} Recount/Exit Polls update

[Jean de Smet]

>March 31^st , 2005
>
>http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/Exit_Polls_2004_Edison-Mitofsky.pdf
>
>Scientific Analysis Suggests Presidential Vote Counts
>
>May Have Been Altered
>
>/Group of University Professors Urges Investigation of 2004 Election/
>
>Officially, President Bush won November's election by 2.5%, yet exit polls 
>showed Kerry winning by 3%[1] . According to a report to be 
>released today by a group of university statisticians, the odds of a 
>discrepancy this large between the national exit poll and election results 
>happening by accident are close to 1 in a million.
>
>In other words, by random chance alone, it could not have happened. But it 
>did.
>
>Two alternatives remain. Either something was wrong with the exit polling, 
>or something was wrong with the vote count.
>
>Exit polls have been used to verify the integrity of elections in the 
>Ukraine, in Latin America, in Germany, and elsewhere. Yet in November 
>2004, the U.S. exit poll discrepancy was much more than normal exit poll 
>error (and similar to that of the invalid Ukraine election.[2] 
>
>In a recent survey of US members of the world's oldest and largest 
>computer society, The Association for Computing Machinery, 95% opposed 
>software driven un-auditable voting machines[3] , of the type that 
>now count at least 30% of U.S. votes. Today's electronic vote-counting 
>machines are not required to include basic safeguards that would prevent 
>and detect machine or human caused errors, be they innocent or 
>deliberate.[4] 
>
>The consortium that conducted the presidential exit polls, 
>Edison/Mitofsky, issued a report in January suggesting that the 
>discrepancy between election results and exit polls occurred because Bush 
>voters were more reticent than Kerry voters in response to pollsters.
>
>The authors of this newly released scientific study "Analysis of the 2004 
>Presidential Election Poll Discrepancies" consider this "reluctant Bush 
>responder" hypothesis to be highly implausible, based on extensive 
>analysis of Edison/Mitofsky's exit poll data. They conclude, /"The 
>required pattern of exit poll participation by Kerry and Bush voters to 
>satisfy the exit poll data defies empirical experience and common sense 
>under any assumed scenario."/
>
>A state-by-state analysis of the discrepancy between exit polls and 
>official election results shows highly improbable skewing of the election 
>results, overwhelmingly biased towards the President.
>
>The report concludes, "/We believe that the absence of any 
>statistically-plausible explanation for the discrepancy between 
>Edison/Mitofsky's exit poll data and the official presidential vote tally 
>is an unanswered question of vital national importance that needs thorough 
>investigation./"
>
>Ph.D. statisticians in America who have seen this group's preliminary exit 
>poll study have not refuted it. This new study is a much more 
>comprehensive an analysis of the exit poll discrepancies.
>
>The report is available on-line:
>
>http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/Exit_Polls_2004_Edison-Mitofsky.pdf
>
>An executive summary of the report by is available at:
>
>http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/Exit_Polls_summary.pdf
>
>*Contributors and Supporters of the Report include:*
>
>*Josh Mitteldorf*, PhD - Temple University Statistics Department
>
>*Steven F. Freeman*, PhD - Center for Organizational Dynamics, University 
>of Pennsylvania
>
>*Brian Joiner*, PhD - Prof. of Statistics (ret) University of Wisconsin
>
>*Frank Stenger*, PhD - Professor, School of Computing, University of Utah
>
>*Richard G. Sheehan*, PhD -Professor, Department of Finance, University of 
>Notre Dame
>
>*Paul F. Velleman*, PhD - Associate Prof., Department of Statistical 
>Sciences, Cornell University
>
>*Victoria Lovegren*, PhD - Department of Mathematics, Case Western Reserve 
>University
>
>*Campbell** B. Read*, PhD - Prof. Emeritus, Department of Statistical 
>Science, Southern Methodist University
>
>*Jonathan Simon*, J.D., National Ballot Integrity Project
>
>*Ron Baiman, *PhD* *­ Institute of Government and Public Affairs, 
>University of Illinois at Chicago
>
>*About US Count Votes*
>
>US Count Votes is a Utah non-profit corporation. It is seeking financial 
>support to complete its "National Election Data Archive" project. The goal 
>of the project is to apply statistical and analytic methods to investigate 
>the integrity of the 2004 elections and to provide for timely verification 
>of the integrity of future elections..
>
>For further information: contact Bruce O'Dell, Vice President, US Count Votes
>
>Email: bruce at uscountvotes.org <mailto:bruce at uscountvotes.org>
>
>612-309-1330
>
>or visit www.electionarchive.org
>
>
>------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>[1] <#_ftnref1> "Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004" 
>prepared by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for the 
>National Election Pool (NEP) Jan. 19, 2005
>
>[2] <#_ftnref2> In the November 21 runoff, Ukraine's official vote count 
>had Prime Minister Yanukovych the winner by 2.7%. Two exit polls showed 
>him losing by 8% and 2%, respectively. Thus, the discrepancy was between 
>10.7% and 4.7%. In the US, the discrepancy was between 6.5% and 5.5%. See 
>http://www.templetonthorp.com/ru/news808 and 
>http://www.indybay.org/archives/archive_by_id.php?id=2669&category_id=44.
>
>[3] <#_ftnref3> www.acm.org/usacm/weblog/index.php?p=73
>
>[4] <#_ftnref4> http://uscountvotes.net/voting_machines/Best_Practices_US.pdf
>
>
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