{news} Fw: USGP-INT Analytical piece on UK Greens in May 4th local elections

[Justine McCabe]

> http://www.socialistunitynetwork.co.uk/activate/Election2006/greens03.htm
>
> The Green Party Result
>
> Peter Cranie, Green Party NEC
>
> Our target at this election was a media friendly 100 council seats. 
> Internally we were looking at this as a top performance, expecting to get 
> somewhere in the mid-80s as a minimum, but satisfied by our result of 91 
> councillors, a gain of 20 on the night, with several holds and no losses. 
> We narrowly lost out on (100 votes or less) further seats in Enfield, 
> Gosport, Lambeth and Kirklees. What makes this more remarkable is that 
> this was an election that did not include the Green strongholds of 
> Brighton and Lancaster, both of which will have all-out elections next 
> year. The victory in this week’s by-election in Scarborough is an example 
> of why we expect our councillor number to tick up to the mid-90s ahead of 
> the 2007 elections.
>
> The most interesting aspect of the campaign for us is that we were able to 
> compete with the big three parties for airtime. Our national credibility 
> was high, primarily because we were contesting 30% of all the seats up for 
> election, just short of our highest ever total achieved in 1990. 
> Considering that none of the major parties actually have 100% coverage, we 
> appeared to be a credible, emerging force because we stood wherever we 
> could.
>
> Our second reason for enhanced credibility at this election was our 
> targeting strategy at a local level. We were well placed to make 15 to 30 
> gains and this was based on years of work in the local areas and having 
> already established political groups on a number of councils.
>
> Thirdly, the political agenda moved onto our territory for a whole week of 
> the campaign. The Conservatives fought hard to display their green 
> credentials, but we had prepared a briefing with their dismal record at a 
> local level. This was picked up on by the media, who then also caught out 
> the Cameron green spin in other respects. For the Tories it was a 
> successful campaign largely because Labour and the Lib Dems did really 
> badly.
>
> For a week the Liberal Democrats disappeared from media view, with Ming 
> Campbell completely off the political pace, and when he did emerge he 
> walked into not just one, but two planned Green ambushes. In Norwich, 
> Campbell staged a visit due to mounting local pressure. He was assaulted 
> by a dismal record of the Lib Dems in Norwich and local government 
> generally, the local incinerator campaign backed by the Lib Dems and the 
> fact that a Lib Dem councillor had earlier in the year been found guilty 
> of misleading the public over a proposed road scheme. Unsurprisingly the 
> Greens took 4 seats from the Lib Dems in Norwich. If we manage to take 
> just two more next year, which is highly likely, Greens will be the 
> official opposition group on the council.
>
> A week later, Campbell visited Liverpool on the day we were able to 
> announce our second defection of the campaign, from the Lib Dem group 
> here. Our councillor went on record criticising the dismal Lib Dem 
> recycling rate and highlighting that the Lib Dem council still paid higher 
> mileage allowances for bigger cars, for both councillors and officers. 
> Needless to say, the Lib Dems actually lost three seats to Labour in 
> Liverpool, completely bucking the national trend.
>
> It is clear to us that the Lib Dems have made the wrong tactical choice as 
> leader. Campbell is steady and uninspiring and at the very best, you can 
> say he is getting bad tactical advice. Fortunately for the Greens, the 
> alternatives are not plausible at the moment, which means that Campbell is 
> likely to take them all the way up to the next General Election. Lib Dem 
> support amongst voters is not entrenched in the same way that Labour or 
> Conservative loyalty can be. Steady is not going to enable the Lib Dems to 
> make much progress and is already looking like a defensive position ahead 
> of the next General Election. Their vote is soft and Greens, once 
> established, can quickly erode their electoral base.
>
> Despite the media frenzy over the far right, we continued to steadily make 
> the news, particularly at a regional level and in the written media. Under 
> BBC reporting guidelines, political parties have to be running campaigns 
> (plural) locally and regionally, and we were therefore able to justify our 
> coverage through our sheer number of candidates. Single or small number of 
> seat parties struggled to make a media impact at the local level, with the 
> exception of the far right BNP.
>
> I am conducting some separate research into their gains at this election. 
> Outside of Barking and Dagenham, the gains were not spectacular, but I 
> have observed that the far right parties are exploiting gaps left due to 
> the targeting policies of all other parties. In Liverpool they managed a 
> second place finish in Norris Green largely because the Lib Dems abandoned 
> the area this time to defend other seats while the Conservatives had 
> abandoned it long ago.
>
> The Greens stood a candidate in this ward but we did not campaign here. If 
> the only leaflets presented to voters are from the Labour or BNP, it is 
> unsurprising that the far right make this kind of advance. It is a 
> difficult situation, because Greens and other left parties must target our 
> limited resources in a way that helps elect their own leading candidates 
> as councillors. However it is clearly unacceptable to give any far right 
> party a clear run into second place and the political credibility that it 
> allows them. Further work must be done on this subject.
>
> Labour got a bloody nose, but this is unlikely to be terminal for Blair 
> yet. He seems determined to stay in office for 10 years, at least, or 
> possibly 11 so that he can outlast Thatcher. Labour MPs could remove him, 
> but the party as a whole seems to have become so supine, that they are 
> likely to wait it out knowing he will not renege on his pledge to step 
> down before the end of his term. However, the longer he remains, the more 
> likely we will see a repeat of the Major 1992 election in 2010, rather 
> than a "big bang" Euro + General Election in 2009. Unless the economy 
> looks as though it is heading into the buffers in 2008, I would now expect 
> a five year term from this Labour government.
>
>
>
> Results on the Left
>
>
>
> Salma Yaqoob’s election in Sparkbrook in Birmingham is to be applauded. 
> British politics will be better for her presence and I look forward to 
> seeing her continue to make mainstream politicians uncomfortable with her 
> astute insights and ability to expose the pre-conceptions of her fellow 
> interviewees. It may also be possible for Respect to win a second or 
> possibly third Birmingham seat in 2007 on the back of her personal 
> political reputation. However, with just 3 seats out of 18 from outside 
> London, there is a considerable work to do for Respect to establish a 
> national profile.
>
> Respect now has two high profile significant figureheads in Galloway and 
> Yaqoob, both of whom are capable and engaging media figures. Outside of 
> London and Birmingham however, Respect’s has only one other area with 
> elected representatives, which is Preston. This is also the only area 
> where they have a councillor with an SWP background. If Respect fails to 
> secure re-election in Preston in 2007 it will be interesting to see how it 
> evolves from its current form, with all of its elected representatives 
> owing less to the SWP’s organisational strengths and more to their 
> community based support.
>
> This will be a huge opportunity for Respect to move forward but I would 
> expect some tension as the agenda is less influenced by the mass movement 
> focus of the SWP and increasingly by the practical concerns of its elected 
> councillors and the people they represent. How this plays out, with votes 
> on difficult issues at conferences and at local meetings, will be 
> interesting. Should a "packing the meeting" approach be used to force 
> through SWP rather than local priorities, there is likely to be conflict 
> that could rapidly escalate. Respect’s own internal structures will need 
> to be reformed to prevent this happening.
>
> If as expected, Galloway departs in 2009/10, Respect can call on Salma 
> Yaqoob as an equally capable national figure to speak for them. With 
> either Galloway or Yaqoob as a focus, I would expect Respect to remain on 
> the British political scene for some time. Losing Galloway to a future 
> career in the media is now widely expected. Losing Yaqoob would be 
> catastrophic for them.
>
> Quietly but noticeably, the Socialist Party have built up an impressive 
> reputation at a local level, gaining and holding their 7 seats by 
> retaining a strong community focus, and working at a local level. I’d 
> particularly highlight the election of Dr Jackie Grunsell in Kirklees on 
> the back of the Save Huddersfield NHS campaign. This shows that genuine 
> community involvement, irrespective of political background, can enable 
> committed progressive candidates to get elected.
>
> The Community Action Party in Wigan is still the main opposition party 
> there with 15 seats, presenting a genuine left of Labour alternative to 
> the local voters. Despite the Labour Party’s strong attempts to drive out 
> the CAP, they continue to offer sensible alternatives to New Labour 
> policies being trickled down to a local level. The IWCA remain a feature 
> in Oxford politics and once again demonstrate the value of genuine 
> commitment to the local community.
>
> What is an overall disappointment is that there was no radical shift to 
> left of centre parties at a national level. Even the Liberal Democrats, 
> fighting on the soggy middle ground, largely failed to benefit from the 
> Labour’s bad night, with the Conservatives seen as the victors. Only in 
> areas where there is an established record of alternative parties working 
> hard in their local communities, or exceptional personalities such as 
> Galloway and Yaqoob, have breakthroughs for left parties happened.
>
>
>
> Where Do We Go From Here?
>
>
>
> This site is dedicated to unity, but as always, we as Greens remain a 
> tricky proposition for everyone else on the left, because we don’t neatly 
> fit into the left/right spectrum viewed in a historical context. On a 
> positive note, informal understandings at a local level were developed in 
> many areas of London. This was in line with the guidance I outlined in my 
> 2005 post election debrief on Socialist Unity Network. Lambeth was a good 
> example of this. Local Greens allowed Respect a clear run at their target 
> ward of Vassall. These informal arrangements with the Greens were not the 
> exclusive preserve of Respect, and in a number of areas, there were 
> similar informal understandings with the Liberal Democrats.
>
> Realistically there are also going to be contests where Greens and Respect 
> are in competition, but it is how these contests are perceived by the 
> respective parties that is important. A post election SWP briefing 
> (08/05/06) obtained by the Green Party states:
>
> "It's also worth noting that in Preston, Newham and Tower Hamlets the 
> Green Party ran spoiling candidates, which meant that we lost at least 
> three seats!"
>
> Greens don’t share this view of electoral competition, perhaps because we 
> have been contesting elections for a lot longer and have a much more 
> realistic expectation of what electoral co-operation involves. To give 
> examples, we could equally point to "spoiler" Labour Party candidates in 
> Huddersfield, "spoiler" Liberal Democrats in Widnes or even Respect’s 
> "spoiler" candidate in Hackney where we got one candidate elected but our 
> second candidate missed out by less than 51 votes. The Greens and Respect 
> are electoral competitors and these situations should be expected in this 
> stage of the electoral cycle.
>
> Electoral results have to be viewed in this way without resorting to 
> negativity. A view that Respect have some entitlement to Green votes or 
> expect that Greens should step down or not contest important strategic 
> areas ahead of proportional elections to come, is unrealistic. It is 
> absolutely clear that Respect, like the Greens, are looking to the longer 
> term and are intending to compete at these proportional elections, where 
> we will be in direct competition for votes.
>
> The SWPbriefing goes onto make the following point:
>
> "The next national set of elections in 2 years time will be the entirely 
> different European elections and the Mayoral and GLA elections in London."
>
> Respect are planning to step up their activity in the run up to the Euro 
> 2009 elections nationwide. The Green Party will be standing more 
> candidates and increasing our activity in the seats we are standing in as 
> we seek to add to our current tally of 2 Euro MPs. It will be interesting 
> to see whether the Socialist Party also intends to stand list candidates 
> in the London GLA elections in 2008 and the Euros in 2009.
>
> It is clear that there are fundamental differences in the Green approach 
> to politics compared to the tactics (necessarily) adopted by Respect, 
> UKIP, the Socialist Party and unfortunately, the BNP. The Greens will 
> contest seats citywide in urban areas wherever possible, in an attempt to 
> compete for coverage with the big 3 parties. The benefits to us are a 
> national election broadcast, better local media coverage and a reputation 
> for trying to match upwards, not downwards, with genuine ambition to 
> become a major player in British politics.
>
> The tactics adopted by Respect and other parties, of serious targeting, 
> are often borne out of necessity and an inability to get the sheer number 
> of candidates needed. Targeting brought an outstanding result in 2005 with 
> the election of George Galloway. Greens had to adjust to this political 
> shock and at the time there was little room for complacency about this 
> potential electoral competitor that could possibly affect us. A year 
> onwards there is a sense amongst Greens that any threat to us in terms of 
> local elections, the Welsh Assembly, London Assembly or Euro Elections 
> from Respect is diminishing rapidly.
>
> The demographics that enabled Galloway to win in Bethnal Green and Bow, 
> and for Respect to elect 12 councillors in Tower Hamlets are unique. The 
> circumstances in which the 2005 election result occurred were also unique 
> and no Labour MP will make a similar voting mistake during their term of 
> office, although it is to be hoped that Labour will avoid ever taking us 
> into an American led war ever again.
>
> Outside of London and the outstanding presence of Salma Yaqoob, Respect 
> has very little in place to suggest that it can get established 
> nationally. Unlike the organic growth of the Socialist Party in particular 
> areas, or the progress of IWCA, Respect are being forced to graft a 
> political movement into the potentially favourable local political scenes 
> in Liverpool and Manchester. This is a difficult task and like the Greens, 
> Respect can only instantly prosper in new areas if existing campaigners 
> and political activists can be persuaded to come on board.
>
> Leading members of the Green Party Executive are driving socially 
> progressive politics into the heart of the Green agenda. We will continue 
> to have issues arising out the fundamental decentralist nature of the 
> Green Party, but these are also being assessed constitutionally. I am now 
> satisfied that that the manifesto we will present in the Welsh Assembly 
> elections next year, the London Assembly elections in 2008 and the 
> European Elections in 2009, will be one suitable for voters who want 
> progressive, left of Labour candidates elected in future PR elections.
>
> The criticism that the Greens are all white and middle class is no longer 
> valid. In the last year the Black and Minority Ethnicities group within 
> the Greens has made tremendous strides. Our language project has enabled 
> us to put up speakers for interviews on Tamil TV network, Channel S and 
> other non-English language stations during these local elections. The fact 
> that over 20% of our staff and volunteers in our offices are B&ME and that 
> we stood our largest total of B&ME candidates ever nationwide is an 
> indication that things are rapidly changing within the Green Party.
>
> Only the Greens have the ability to appeal beyond the small demographic 
> that is left politics. Our message is that there is a fundamental issue of 
> Climate Change. This can only be dealt with by major changes to our 
> thinking, lifestyle and consumption and require a global vision as well as 
> a local focus. These are also changes that will make society a better 
> place to live and improve the quality of life for most people. Such 
> clarity of thinking, honesty and a sense of purpose attracts people with 
> no political orientation and those currently unhappily mired in the soggy 
> centre ground of politics.
>
> Green strategy is based on a tipping point timescale that requires radical 
> action and intervention within 20 to 25 years. It is not enough to follow 
> the European Green model of 5 to 10% support and a role in coalition 
> politics that often requires difficult compromises and unsatisfactory 
> electoral arrangements. It is not enough simply to hold the balance of 
> power of councils, implementing useful policies but hamstrung by the 
> conservatism of others. We must become the main opposition and then gain 
> control of councils to implement practical but radical action.
>
> It is also not enough for us to gain a foothold in national politics and 
> become a minority partner in a coalition government. Our aim must be more 
> ambitious. Our 92 elected councillors are the evidence that we are 
> continually building support even under the first past the post system. We 
> will have well over 100 councillors at this time next year and our first 
> Welsh Assembly members. The Scottish Greens are likely to gain councillors 
> all over the country to link up the national political presence and the 
> local grassroots activity under the new PR system for electing Scottish 
> councillors in 2007.
>
> Green politics is the growing force. It is the future in British politics 
> and has a global resonance. The door is wide open for radical, progressive 
> activists on the left to join us and to make a practical difference in 
> local, regional and national politics.
>
>
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