[TheClimate.Vote] August 18, 2017 - Daily Global Warming News

[Richard Pauli]

/August 18, 2017/
*
Analysis: Why US carbon emissions have fallen 14% since 2005 
<https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-us-carbon-emissions-have-fallen-14-since-2005>*
ZEKE HAUSFATHER
Before 2005, US carbon emissions were marching upwards year after year, 
with little sign of slowing down. After this point, they fell quickly, 
declining 14% from their peak by the end of 2016.
Researchers have given a number of different reasons for this marked 
turnaround. Some have argued that it was mainly due to natural gas and, 
to a lesser extent, wind both replacing coal for generating electricity. 
Others have suggested that the declines were driven by the financial 
crisis and its lasting effects on the economy.
Here Carbon Brief presents an analysis of the causes of the decline in 
US CO2 since 2005. There is no single cause of reductions. Rather, they 
were driven by a number of factors, including a large-scale transition 
from coal to gas, a large increase in wind power, a reduction in 
industrial energy use and changes in transport patterns.
Carbon Brief's analysis shows that in 2016…
- Overall, CO2 emissions were around 18% lower than they would have 
been, if underlying factors had not changed, and 14% lower than their 
2005 peak.
- Coal-to-gas switching in the power sector is the largest driver, 
accounting for 33% of the emissions reduction in 2016.
- Wind generation was responsible for 19% of the emissions reduction.
- Solar power was responsible for 3%.
- Reduced electricity use – mostly in the industrial sector – was 
responsible for 18%.
- Without these changes, electricity sector CO2 emissions would have 
been 46% higher than they are today.
- Reduced fuel consumption in homes and industry was responsible for an 
additional 12% of the overall emissions reductions.
- Changes in transport emissions from fewer miles per-capita, more 
efficient vehicles, and less air travel emissions per-capita account for 
the final 15%.
Conclusion
Many factors have come together to drive US emissions down in recent 
years. While gas, wind and reduced electricity and energy use played the 
largest roles, other sectors made important contributions, too.
Emissions continued to fall as the US economy recovered from the 
financial crisis and associated recession, suggesting this was not the 
main cause of emission reductions, though it may have served as a catalyst.
The falling price of gas, wind and solar, ongoing efficiency efforts and 
vehicle fuel economy standards mean US emissions may remain flat or 
continue to decline, regardless of current federal inaction on climate 
change.
States are also increasingly taking their own actions to meet emission 
reduction goals in the absence of federal policy. In this context, 
significant increases in US emissions would be unexpected, barring 
subsidies for coal or equally unconventional market interventions.
However, the current rate of US CO2 reductions is not sufficient to meet 
the commitments it made under the Paris Agreement. It is also much too 
slow to avoid more than 2C of warming since the pre-industrial era.
While it is useful to understand the factors behind CO2 reductions to 
date, both federal and local policy will need to play a role in driving 
the deep reductions needed to avoid potentially dangerous warming.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-us-carbon-emissions-have-fallen-14-since-2005


Climate Nexus
*MO Regulators Reject Midwest Wind Power Line: 
<http://climatenexus.org/> *The Missouri Public Service Commission 
rejected a $2.3 billion proposal to build a high-voltage, wind-powered 
transmission line. This is the second time the regulators have denied 
the proposal by Clean Line Energy Partners, citing the company's 
inability to obtain necessary approval from counties along the route of 
the proposed project. The 780-mile-long transmission line would carry 
wind power from southwest Kansas to eastern states, but local Missouri 
residents oppose the project fearing lowered land values. Four out of 
five Commission members believe the project is needed and is in the 
public interest, but deferred to a March appeals court decision 
requiring local approval. All other states have granted approval, and 
Clean Line Energy is reviewing next steps. (AP 
<http://climatenexus.us4.list-manage.com/track/click?u=d1f5797e59060083034310930&id=f57f81c89d&e=95b355344d>, 
News Press-Now 
<http://climatenexus.us4.list-manage2.com/track/click?u=d1f5797e59060083034310930&id=db9f7ee387&e=95b355344d>) 
http://climatenexus.org/


*(video) Rural communities to power providers: How everyone is prepping 
for electric vehicle adoption 
<http://business.financialpost.com/transportation/ev-feature/wcm/c098ba01-2ca3-4995-b5b9-655a25be6477>*
/(video news report)/
'The technology we have now is what we need for the next 20 years during 
this transition to electric vehicles, when we don't have enough capacity 
to justify upgrades to the grid'...
"It's not local demand that's driving this initial strategy, it's the 
desire to be prepared and ahead of the game to facilitate the transition 
to electric vehicles," said Megan Lohmann, head of community energy 
management at Community Energy BC, a partner in the Accelerate Kootenay 
project that will install 53 chargers in the area...
The project is a small step forward and it doesn't change the fact that 
charging infrastructure remains one of the most significant obstacles 
when it comes to adopting electric vehicles, say government officials 
and auto industry experts, but it also shows how communities and 
electrical grid operators are trying to prepare for the eventual influx 
of EVs that the federal government is pushing for...
There are two common levels of public chargers: Level 2 chargers, faster 
than a basic level 1, can recharge vehicles from zero in about four to 
six hours; and Level 3 chargers can recharge cars to 80 per cent 
capacity in about 30 minutes. Canada doesn't appear to have enough of 
either. ..
There were 3,900 publicly accessible Level 1 and Level 2 chargers and 
315 Level 3 chargers in Canada in 2016, according to the International 
Energy Agency. That pales in comparison to other countries such as China 
(52,778 Level 1 and 2 chargers; and 88,476 Level 3), the United States 
(35,089 Level 1 and 2; and 5,384 Level 3) and Japan (17,260 Level 1 and 
2; and 5,990 Level 3). ..
video 
http://business.financialpost.com/transportation/ev-feature/wcm/c098ba01-2ca3-4995-b5b9-655a25be6477
http://business.financialpost.com/transportation/ev-feature/wcm/c098ba01-2ca3-4995-b5b9-655a25be6477


*Loss of Arctic sea ice impacting Atlantic Ocean water circulation 
system 
<https://news.yale.edu/2017/07/31/loss-arctic-sea-ice-impacting-atlantic-ocean-water-circulation-system>*
Arctic sea ice is not merely a passive responder to the climate changes 
occurring around the world, according to new research.
Scientists at Yale University and the University of Southampton say the 
ongoing Arctic ice loss can play an active role in altering one of the 
planet's largest water circulation systems: the Atlantic Meridional 
Overturning Circulation (AMOC).
AMOC has a lower limb of dense, cold water that flows south from the 
north Atlantic, and an upper limb of warm, salty water that flows north 
from the south Atlantic as part of the Gulf Stream. AMOC plays a major 
role in regional and global climate, affecting the Atlantic rim 
countries - particularly those in Europe - and far beyond. It was 
featured in the movie "The Day After Tomorrow."
"Conventional thinking has been that if ocean circulation weakens, 
reducing the transport of heat from low to high latitudes, then it 
should lead to sea ice growth. But we have found another, overlooked, 
mechanism by which sea ice actively affects AMOC on multi-decadal time 
scales," said professor Alexey Fedorov, climate scientist at the Yale 
Department of Geology and Geophysics and co-author of a study detailing 
the findings in the journal Nature Climate Change.
The first author of the paper is Florian Sévellec, a former Yale 
postdoctoral researcher in Fedorov's lab who is now an associate 
professor at the University of Southampton. Wei Liu, a Yale postdoctoral 
associate, is another co-author of the study.
Earlier this year, a different Yale-led study cautioned that the AMOC 
system was not as stable as previously thought. That study said the 
possibility of a collapsed AMOC under global warming conditions is being 
significantly underestimated.
https://news.yale.edu/2017/07/31/loss-arctic-sea-ice-impacting-atlantic-ocean-water-circulation-system


*Wind and Solar Have Saved Lives in the US*: <http://climatenexus.org/> 
Fossil fuel not burnt due to rapid deployment of windand solar energy 
helped drastically decrease major pollutants in the air and prevented up 
to 12,700 deaths over nine years in the US, according to a new study 
<http://climatenexus.us4.list-manage.com/track/click?u=d1f5797e59060083034310930&id=88bd3ddfd8&e=95b355344d>. 
Between 2007-2015, the country also saved up to $220 billion due to 
avoided deaths, fewer hospital visits,and climate-change mitigation. An 
analysis by Quartz 
<http://climatenexus.us4.list-manage2.com/track/click?u=d1f5797e59060083034310930&id=70fca71acc&e=95b355344d>determines 
that the US government spent between $50 billion and $80 billion in wind 
and solar incentives, showing a handy return in investment already. 
(Quartz 
<http://climatenexus.us4.list-manage.com/track/click?u=d1f5797e59060083034310930&id=1b5447e101&e=95b355344d>, 
EurActiv 
<http://climatenexus.us4.list-manage.com/track/click?u=d1f5797e59060083034310930&id=a10f4cdf8e&e=95b355344d>, 
Independent 
<http://climatenexus.us4.list-manage.com/track/click?u=d1f5797e59060083034310930&id=4fb37c8732&e=95b355344d>, 
EcoWatch 
<http://climatenexus.us4.list-manage.com/track/click?u=d1f5797e59060083034310930&id=b2b75d2663&e=95b355344d>, 
Grist 
<http://climatenexus.us4.list-manage.com/track/click?u=d1f5797e59060083034310930&id=303cf740e4&e=95b355344d>) 
http://climatenexus.org/


*Science Says: Fast-melting Arctic sign of bad global warming 
<http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/science-fast-melting-arctic-sign-bad-global-warming-49199787>*
Of all the global warming warning signs in the Arctic, "it is the sea 
ice that is screaming the loudest," Serreze said.
That's a problem because a growing body of studies connects dwindling 
sea ice to wild weather. The reduced winter sea ice interacts with 
warmer oceans to change conditions in the air that then triggers a 
potent noticeable shift in the jet stream, the giant atmospheric river 
that controls much of our weather, said Rutgers University climate 
scientist Jennifer Francis. This theory is still debated by scientists, 
but increasingly more researchers are agreeing with Francis.
It's not just sea ice on the decline. Glaciers in the Arctic are 
shrinking. And the massive Greenland ice sheet is slowly but steadily 
melting and that can add a big dose to sea level rise. Since 2002, it 
has lost 4,400 billion tons (4,000 billion metric tons) of ice.
Then there's the Arctic carbon bomb. Carbon dioxide and methane - which 
traps even more heat - are stuck in the permafrost in places like Alaska 
and Siberia.
"Roast the Arctic and you create a mess everywhere on Earth," said 
Princeton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer.
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/science-fast-melting-arctic-sign-bad-global-warming-49199787


      Data rescue projects
      <http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2017/08/data-rescue-projects/>

Filed under:

  * Climate Science
    <http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/category/climate-science/>
  * Instrumental Record
    <http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/category/climate-science/instrumental-record/>
  * Scientific practice
    <http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/category/scientific-practice/>

- gavin @ 17 August 2017

It's often been said that while we can only gather new data about the 
planet at the rate of one year per year, rescuing old data can add far 
more data more quickly. Data rescue is however extremely labor 
intensive. Nonetheless there are multiple data rescue projects and 
citizen science efforts ongoing, some of which we have highlightedhere 
<http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/04/rescuing-data/>before. 
For those looking for an intro into the subject, this2014 article 
<https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/08/the-quest-to-scan-millions-of-weather-records/378962/>is 
an great introduction.

with a bit of help fromTwitter 
<https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin/status/897862259619364864>, we came 
up with the following:

  * Old Weather <http://www.oldweather.org/>(@oldweather)
  * Weather Detective <http://www.weatherdetective.net.au/>(closing soon)
  * Weather Rescue (coming soon)/[Link to be added when it goes live]/
  * NOAA Climate Database Modernization Program
    <https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/research-programs/climate-database-modernization-program>
  * New Zealand
    <http://www.deepsouthchallenge.co.nz/assessing-and-validating-new-zealand-earth-system-model-nzesm-using-modern-and-historic>(@DeepSouth_NZ)
  * The International Environmental Data Rescue Organization (IEDRO)
    <http://iedro.org/>
  * Atmospheric Circulation Reconstruction over the Earth
    <http://www.met-acre.org/wg1-data/>(@met_acre)
  * The International Data Rescue Portal (i-Dare)
    <https://www.idare-portal.org/>
  * Met Éirann <https://t.co/ROGrmAWll2>(poster)
  * Historical Climatology
    <http://www.historicalclimatology.com/databases.html>(list of more
    databases)
  * Data Rescue at home <http://www.data-rescue-at-home.org/>
  * Historical Canadian data
    <https://sites.google.com/site/historicalclimatedata/canadian-historical-data-typing-project>
  * SE Australia Recent Climate History
    <http://climatehistory.com.au/>(no longer active?)

(If you know of any more, please add them in the comments, 
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2017/08/data-rescue-projects/ 
and I'll try and keep this list up to date).


*Officials resort to artificial rain to tackle raging wildfires in 
Siberia 
<http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/features/officials-resort-to-artificial-rain-to-tackle-raging-wildfires-in-siberia/>*
By The Siberian Times reporter     24 July 2017
Fires have wreaked havoc this summer with Yakutia and the Yamalo-Nenets 
autonomous the latest to be hard hit.
Clouds are being spiked with a special compound over remote areas of 
Yakutia to force rain in forest infernos.
The skies are cannoned from An-26 planes with silver iodide or liquid 
nitrogen by forestry fire fighters, provoking 50 minutes of rain across 
a 30 kilometre area.
An 18,000 hectare fire in Viluisky district is being targeted, some 425 
kilometres northwest of regional capital Yakutsk.
Firefighters are also using explosives to remove obstacles and build 
mineral lines to block the spread of fires.
Yakutia has some 12 wildfires.
In Yamalo-Nenets  officials reported 47 wildfires across 2,097 hectares 
after a blast of hot weather.
Emergency measures are in place in 17 regions and republics in Siberia 
and the Russian Far East.
Locals in many regions say the summer forest fires are are worse each 
year as temperatures rise.
http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/features/officials-resort-to-artificial-rain-to-tackle-raging-wildfires-in-siberia/


*(video) This Day in Climate History August 18, 2015 
<http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/clinton-breaks-from-obama-on-arctic-drilling-508148803750>-  
from D.R. Tucker*
MSNBC's Rachel Maddow discusses Democratic presidential candidate 
Hillary Clinton's opposition to drilling in the Arctic.
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/clinton-breaks-from-obama-on-arctic-drilling-508148803750 

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