[TheClimate.Vote] August 30, 2017 - Daily Global Warming News

[Richard Pauli]

/August 30, 2017/

*Houston's Growth at any Cost Makes Floods Inevitably Worse 
<https://climatecrocks.com/author/greenman3610/>*
You'd think nobody ever watched "Jaws".
Jaws [1975] - Mayor Vaughn Reports: No Danger; Fun in the Sun on Amity 
Island <https://youtu.be/ecm-F80q_HA>
https://youtu.be/ecm-F80q_HA
Texas Tribune:
The area's history is punctuated by such major back-to-back storms, but 
many residents say they are becoming more frequent and severe, and 
scientists agree.
"More people die here than anywhere else from floods," said Sam Brody, a 
Texas A&M University at Galveston researcher who specializes in natural 
hazards mitigation. "More property per capita is lost here. And the 
problem's getting worse."
Why?
Scientists, other experts and federal officials say Houston's explosive 
growth is largely to blame. As millions have flocked to the metropolitan 
area in recent decades, local officials have largely snubbed stricter 
building regulations, allowing developers to pave over crucial acres of 
prairie land that once absorbed huge amounts of rainwater. That has led 
to an excess of floodwater during storms that chokes the city's vast 
bayou network, drainage systems and two huge federally owned reservoirs, 
endangering many nearby homes - including Virginia Hammond's.
*(YouTube) Why Houston Wasn't Ready For A Big Hurricane Like Harvey | 
All In | MSNBC 
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=15&v=Zz7w7b8MYhI>*
Sprawl and a quick pace of development make it hard for Houston to be 
prepared for natural disasters such as Hurricane Harvey.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=15&v=Zz7w7b8MYhI
On top of that, scientists say climate change is causing torrential 
rainfall to happen more often, meaning storms that used to be considered 
"once-in-a-lifetime" events are happening with greater frequency. Rare 
storms that have only a miniscule chance of occurring in any given year 
have repeatedly battered the city in the past 15 years. And a 
significant portion of buildings that flooded in the same time frame 
were not located in the "100-year" floodplain - the area considered to 
have a 1 percent chance of flooding in any given year - catching 
residents who are not required to carry flood insurance off guard.
Scientists say the Harris County Flood Control District, which manages 
thousands of miles of floodwater-evacuating bayous and helps enforce 
development rules, should focus more on preserving green space and 
managing growth. The City of Houston, too. And they say everyone should 
plan for more torrential rainfall because of the changing climate. (A 
host of cities in the U.S. and around the world are doing so.)
But county and city officials responsible for addressing flooding 
largely reject these arguments. Houston's two top flood control 
officials say their biggest challenge is not managing rapid growth but 
retrofitting outdated infrastructure. Current standards that govern how 
and where developers and residents can build are mostly sufficient, they 
say. And all the recent monster storms are freak occurrences - not 
harbingers of global warming or a sign of things to come.
The longtime head of the flood control district flat-out disagrees with 
scientific evidence that shows development is making flooding worse. 
Engineering projects can reverse the effects of land development and are 
doing so, Mike Talbott said in an interview with The Texas Tribune and 
ProPublica in late August before his retirement after 18 years heading 
the powerful agency. (His successor shares his views.)...
.
*Harvey Is What Climate Change Looks Like 
<http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/28/climate-change-hurricane-harvey-215547>*
It's time to open our eyes and prepare for the world that's coming.
By ERIC HOLTHAUS August 28, 2017
In all of U.S. history, there's never been a storm like Hurricane 
Harvey. That fact is increasingly clear, even though the rains are still 
falling and the water levels in Houston are still rising.
But there's an uncomfortable point that, so far, everyone is skating 
around: We knew this would happen, decades ago. We knew this would 
happen, and we didn't care. Now is the time to say it as loudly as 
possible: Harvey is what climate change looks like. More specifically, 
Harvey is what climate change looks like in a world that has decided, 
over and over, that it doesn't want to take climate change seriously.
Houston has been sprawling out into the swamp for decades, largely 
unplanned and unzoned. Now, all that pavement has transformed the bayous 
into surging torrents and shunted Harvey's floodwaters toward homes and 
businesses. Individually, each of these subdivisions or strip malls 
might have seemed like a good idea at the time, but in aggregate, 
they've converted the metro area into a flood factory. Houston, as it 
was before Harvey, will never be the same again.
Harvey is the third 500-year flood to hit the Houston area in the past 
three years, but Harvey is in a class by itself...
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/28/climate-change-hurricane-harvey-215547


*Electricity demand in southern Europe to soar with air con - scientists 
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/aug/28/electricity-demand-in-southern-europe-to-soar-with-air-con-say-climate-scientists>*
Study predicts power consumption to rise with hotter temperatures, 
increasing need for renewable sources, while northern Europe's demand 
may fall
The results reveal that overall, the total demand for electricity in 
Europe overall is expected to remain almost constant. But within Europe, 
daily peak demand is expected to become polarised, with countries in the 
north predicted to show a drop and those in the south a boom - a trend 
bucked by Italy alone, for reasons the researchers say is unclear.
The authors warn the polarisation would be strongest at the end of the 
century in a scenario where nothing is done to tackle global warming.  
In this case, the authors say the average maximum daily electrical power 
demand of Spain and Portugal could rise by up to 5-7% by the end of the 
century.
"What [the authors] are finding is large increases in electricity 
consumption on hot days - but if this happened tomorrow, the 
[electricity] system would not be ready," he said, adding that the 
impact on the use of air conditioning was "one of the big untold stories 
about climate change", and that more energy-efficient air conditioners 
and better insulated homes were needed.
"Air conditioning is wonderful - I would not want to live in Houston or 
Miami or Phoenix without air conditioning - but it puts enormous stress 
on our electricity systems and results in billions of tonnes of carbon 
dioxide emission annually," he said.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/aug/28/electricity-demand-in-southern-europe-to-soar-with-air-con-say-climate-scientists


NATURE GEOSCIENCE | COMMENTARY
*Acts of God, human influence and litigation 
<https://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo3019.html>*
   "The question is not whether there will be another wave of 
climate-related litigation - the wave is already in motion.
"The question instead is whether it will be more successful than 
previous efforts."
https://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo3019.html
.
*Governments face 'wave of legal action' over climate change inaction as 
natural disasters worsen, activists warn 
<http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-sue-governments-companies-legal-action-warning-natural-disasters-clientearth-a7917106.html>*
Companies could also find themselves in legal trouble, environmental 
lawyers say
A "wave of legal action" over climate change has already begun and cases 
will become more likely to succeed as the scientists get better at 
attributing extreme weather events to global warming, activists have warned.
Writing in the journal Nature Geoscience, lawyers from ClientEarth in 
London and Earth & Water Law in Washington DC said events previously 
regarded as "acts of God" could increasingly land humans with a bill for 
damages.
In July, chief executives of 92 green organisations voted ClientEarth as 
the UK's most effective environmental campaign group 
<https://www.clientearth.org/green-leaders-choose-clientearth-effective-uk-environmental-group/>
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-sue-governments-companies-legal-action-warning-natural-disasters-clientearth-a7917106.html
.
*Extreme weather means more litigation risk for business and government 
<https://www.clientearth.org/new-nature-report-says-stronger-science-means-climate-litigation-risk-business-government/>*
28 Aug 2017
With Hurricane Harvey battering the southern United States, a new report 
by ClientEarth warns that governments and business may be increasingly 
at risk of litigation for failing to prevent foreseeable climate-related 
harm to people and infrastructure.
It's the conclusion of a report published in Nature, which says that as 
cutting-edge climate science improves, event attribution studies are now 
able to quantify the link between human activity and extreme weather 
events like droughts and heatwaves.
Authors Sophie Marjanac, Lindene Patton and James Thornton said: "The 
science of extreme weather attribution is improving rapidly, and is 
making important predictions about future weather events.
"This means the legal duties of those responsible for keeping people, 
the built environment and the natural world safe are changing too. 
Identifying the human influence in events once only understood as 'acts 
of god' will reshape the legal landscape, meaning governments and 
businesses could be sued if they don't take action to protect people 
from floods, heatwaves and other foreseeable climate change risks."
The paper argues that, without strong signals from government, 
litigation could play a key role in spurring states and businesses to 
mitigate or adapt to risks associated with greenhouse gas emissions.
https://www.clientearth.org/new-nature-report-says-stronger-science-means-climate-litigation-risk-business-government/


*How Harvey - and climate change - could change American real estate 
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/aug/29/hurricane-harvey-climate-change-real-estate-florida>*
Floridians have long recognised the threat of climate change to their 
homes. Amid the latest disaster, home buyers may increasingly look to 
higher ground
Many of the lessons that Florida has learned since 1992 have parallels 
in the unfolding disaster in Texas, experts say, and what was already a 
trend toward factoring in environmental threats and climate change to 
land and property values looks certain to become the standard nationwide 
as Houston begins to mop up from the misery of Harvey.
"The question is whether people are going to be basing their real estate 
decisions on climate change futures," said Hugh Gladwin, professor of 
anthropology at Florida International University, who says his research 
suggests higher-standing areas of Miami are becoming increasingly 
gentrified as a result of sea level rise.
"Will there be a massive decline in the property values of the flooded 
areas in Houston?  Common sense would say yes. And if that's combined 
with new legislation that's going to require full disclosure, then wow."
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/aug/29/hurricane-harvey-climate-change-real-estate-florida


*Hurricane Harvey Was No Surprise 
<https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/28/opinion/hurricane-harvey-global-warming.html>*
Incorporating this scientific understanding into federal, state and 
local decision-making can help prepare for extreme events. For decades, 
the default approach has been to assume a "stationary" climate - one in 
which the odds of extremes have remained unchanged. But because global 
warming is increasing those odds, being resilient and prepared means 
incorporating the changing probabilities into planning, design and 
operation decisions...
Unfortunately, President Trump is moving America in the opposite 
direction...
Refusing to acknowledge the changing odds of extremes means that we will 
be unprepared for events that fall outside of our experience. Denying 
climate science is not just a political statement. It also puts American 
lives and property at risk.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/28/opinion/hurricane-harvey-global-warming.html


*How to Talk About Hurricane Harvey and Climate Change 
<http://www.climatesignals.org/resources/infographic-climate-change-amplifies-hurricane-impacts>*
Topline Message: Through warmer air and water and rising sea levels, 
climate change makes hurricanes more powerful and dangerous.
Impacts
Parts of Houston saw over two feet of rain in 24 hours, as the entire 
metropolitan Houston region is flooding. At least five people have died, 
and on Sunday there was a two and a half hour wait for 911 assistance.
At least nine trillion gallons of water have fallen on Texas, with an 
additional five to 10 trillion gallons to come over the week - up to 50 
inches of rain, meaning some areas will get a year's worth of rain in a 
week. According to the National Weather Service, "This event is 
unprecedented & all impacts are unknown & beyond anything experienced."
*Climate Connection*
*Climate change is not the only factor in Hurricane Harvey's 
destruction, but there is a clear climate connection to the storm. *"The 
human contribution can be up to 30 percent or so up to the total 
rainfall coming out of the storm," said climate scientist Kevin 
Trenberth. While it would be a mistake to ask if climate change "caused" 
Harvey, scientists are increasingly confident about how climate change 
amplifies storms.
*Heat Makes Rains Heavier:* Warmer air can hold more moisture and warmer 
seascause water to evaporate faster, which means more rainfall during 
storms-a key factor in Harvey's extensive flooding. (Infographic and 
sources)
*Hurricanes Feed on Warm Water: *Warm sea surface temperatures intensify 
hurricanes. Warmer temperatures makes ocean water evaporate faster, 
providing more heat energy and moisture. This increases a storm's 
potential maximum wind speed. The waters in the Gulf prior to Hurricane 
Harvey were 2.7 - 7.2°F (1.5 - 4°C) above average, which was one of two 
key factors that facilitated the rapid strengthening of Harvey to 
Category 4 at landfall. (Infographic and sources)
*Sea Level Rise Makes Storm Surge Worse:* As glaciers have melted, seas 
have risen. The higher the seas, the further inland and more devastating 
a storm surge. (Infographic and sources)
*Hurricanes are Getting Stronger:* Studies have found a 30-year trend 
showing an increase in Atlantic tropical cyclones strength alongside an 
increase in ocean temperatures over the Atlantic Ocean and elsewhere. So 
far, the fingerprint of global warming in the intensity of tropical 
cyclones has been identified in one ocean basin: the Northwest Pacific.
*Atlantic Hurricanes have been getting more frequent:* Looking at all 
storm categories, nine of the last 11 Atlantic hurricane seasons have 
produced more storms than normal. There has been an increase in Atlantic 
hurricanes over the past few decades.
*Past Events Don't Change Present:* There have always been variations in 
hurricane frequency across time, but scientists say the evidence is 
mounting that greenhouse gases play a role in the observed increase.  
Prior periods of increased hurricane activity due to natural variation 
do not rule out a role for global warming in the current period of 
increased activity since the early 1980s. To use a metaphor: just 
because lightning started a particular forest fire doesn't mean people 
can't start them too.
*Quotes*
     Kevin Trenberth in The Atlantic: "The human contribution can be up 
to 30 percent or so up to the total rainfall coming out of the storm. It 
may have been a strong storm, and it may have caused a lot of problems 
anyway-but [human-caused climate change] amplifies the damage considerably."
     Mike Mann in Facebook post: "[Climate change] exacerbates several 
characteristics of the storm in a way that greatly increased the risk of 
damage and loss of life"
     National Weather Service in WaPo: "This event is unprecedented and 
all impacts are unknown and beyond anything experienced."
     Jon Erdman and Chris Dolce at The Weather Channel: "This may end up 
being one of the worst flood disasters in U.S. history."
     Matthew Cappucci in WaPo: "Many textbooks have the 60-inch mark as 
a once-in-a-million-year recurrence interval, meaning that if any spots 
had that amount of rainfall, they would essentially be dealing with a 
once-in-a-million-year event."
     Matthew Cappucci in WaPo: "Sometimes, there simply aren't words. 
This is entirely uncharted territory. For years, many had watched movies 
like 'The Day After Tomorrow' and thought, 'Someday …' Unfortunately, 
that day is today. Welcome to the future of weather. "
     Eric Fisher in WaPo: "[I]t's fair to say [Harvey] will produce more 
rain than we have ever seen before in the U.S. from a tropical system 
and over the fourth-largest city in the country."
     Lonnie Thompson in Boston Herald: "As we move to these abnormal 
extremes in many places, to me, it points to the role of increasing 
temperatures on our planet. It's becoming the new norm."
     Juliette Rooney-Varga in Boston Herald: "As the ocean warms, it can 
transfer energy through the storm. The warmer the atmosphere is, the 
more moisture it can absorb from the ocean. We are hearing the terms 
'record-setting rainfall' or 'intense precipitation' more and more 
across the country - not just in this storm."
Tweets
#Harvey's strength was fueled by the abnormally warm Gulf of Mexico.  
(Infographic and sources)
Warmer air holds more moisture, meaning more rainfall from #Harvey and 
more flooding. Stay safe, Texas. (Infographic and sources)
Generalized graphic re hurricanes & climate here:
http://www.climatesignals.org/resources/infographic-climate-change-amplifies-hurricane-impacts
#Harvey intensified quickly due to warm sea surface temps, linked to 
global warming (Infographic and sources)
http://www.climatesignals.org/resources/infographic-climate-change-amplifies-hurricane-impacts


*If Donald Trump won't tackle climate change, then Chicago will 
<https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/29/if-donald-trump-wont-tackle-climate-change-then-chicago-will>*
Rahm Emanuel
Across the US, towns and metropolises like mine are united to meet the 
Paris climate agreement's targets and protect our residents and businesses
American cities have the power and the will to take action collectively 
and in our own communities. We control the levers of planning, land use 
and development - and we can use these tools to turn promises and 
commitments into results.
This fall, Chicago will host the first North American Climate Summit, a 
new forum for leaders from across the US, Canada and Mexico to exchange 
innovative ideas and strengthen coordination and collaboration in our 
common fight for a sustainable future.
*Something is wrong when a president will do anything to protect every 
Confederate statue in every city and town, but not one thing to protect 
those cities and towns from rising sea levels, severe storms and other 
climate change impacts that threaten municipalities' very existence.*
We hope that Washington finds the courage to lead, but in the meantime 
we are going to keep pushing forward by cutting emissions, reducing our 
reliance on coal and adopting the Paris climate agreement locally. Our 
residents and businesses demand nothing less.
Rahm Emanuel is the mayor of Chicago


*(text + video) 1,200 Die as "Devastating" Climate Change-Linked Floods 
Submerge Parts of South Asia 
<https://www.democracynow.org/2017/8/29/1_200_die_as_devastating_climate>*
In the past month, more than 1,200 people have died amid flooding in 
Bangladesh, Nepal and India. This year's monsoon season has brought 
torrential downpours that have submerged wide swaths of South Asia, 
destroying tens of thousands of homes, schools and hospitals and 
affecting up to 40 million people. Aid organizations are warning that 
this is one of the worst regional humanitarian crises in years, with 
millions of people facing severe food shortages and disease caused by 
polluted flood water. Flood victims in southern Nepal say they have lost 
everything.
...for two reasons. One, as temperatures increase and we are seeing 
warming across the globe, the glaciers and the snowmelt are swelling 
rivers as they come through, down through the Himalayas, through Nepal, 
India, and into Bangladesh, where they go into the sea. At the same 
time, warming temperatures in the sea means that there's more moisture 
in the atmosphere, which means more intense and heavier rains.
"We have never faced this before. We have uncertainty in how the water 
is going to react as it moves out of the spillway and into the 
surrounding area," Lindner told a news conference on Tuesday. "We are 
trying to wrap our heads around what this water will do."
Linder named six subdivisions that appear most at imminent risk and told 
residents: "If you want to leave, now is the time to leave. The reason 
being, once the water comes into the street you're not going to be able 
to leave."
https://www.democracynow.org/2017/8/29/1_200_die_as_devastating_climate
https://www.democracynow.org/shows/2017/8/29?autostart=true
- more:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/monsoon-floods-cut-off-villages-wash-away-farms-south-asia/
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/08/floods-kill-1200-india-nepal-bangladesh-170826230610924.html
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/aug/22/floods-across-india-nepal-and-bangladesh-claim-more-than-800-lives-south-asia


*(Music)  Bob Dylan - A Hard Rain's A-Gonna Fall (Audio) 
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5al0HmR4to>*
Music video by Bob Dylan performing A Hard Rain's A-Gonna Fall (Audio). 
(C) 2016 Columbia Records, a division of Sony Music Entertainment 
http://vevo.ly/c0yygc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5al0HmR4to


<August%2030,%202005:,,,In%20an%20essay%20published%20in%20the%20Boston%20Globe,%20and%20republished%20the%20next,day%20in%20the%20New%20York%20Times,%20Ross%20Gelbspan%20writes:,,,%22The%20hurricane%20that%20struck%20Louisiana%20yesterday%20was%20nicknamed%20Katrina,by%20the%20National%20Weather%20Service.%20Its%20real%20name%20is%20global%20warming.%22,,,http://web.archive.org/web/20130618033413/http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0830-22.htm>*This 
Day in Climate History August 30, 2005 
<August%2030,%202005:,,,In%20an%20essay%20published%20in%20the%20Boston%20Globe,%20and%20republished%20the%20next,day%20in%20the%20New%20York%20Times,%20Ross%20Gelbspan%20writes:,,,%22The%20hurricane%20that%20struck%20Louisiana%20yesterday%20was%20nicknamed%20Katrina,by%20the%20National%20Weather%20Service.%20Its%20real%20name%20is%20global%20warming.%22,,,http://web.archive.org/web/20130618033413/http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0830-22.htm>-  
from D.R. Tucker*
August 30, 2005:
In an essay published in the Boston Globe, and republished the next
day in the New York Times, Ross Gelbspan writes:
*"The hurricane that struck Louisiana yesterday was nicknamed Katrina**
**by the National Weather Service. Its real name is global warming..."*
http://web.archive.org/web/20130618033413/http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0830-22.htm
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/31/opinion/hurricane-katrinas-real-name.html

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