[TheClimate.Vote] December 5, 2017 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/December 5, 2017
/
[LA Times]
*More than 150 structures destroyed, 27,000 people evacuated in raging 
Ventura wildfire 
<http://beta.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-evacuation-ventura-county-fire-20171204-story.html>*
A fast-moving, wind-driven brush fire broke out Monday night in the 
foothills near Thomas Aquinas College in Santa Paula and swept into the 
city of Ventura early Tuesday, burning homes and forcing thousands to 
evacuate. The extent of the losses was unclear, but fire officials said 
there was little they could do stop the flames being pushed by gusts of 
50 mph. One person was reported killed in a traffic accident on a road 
closed because of the fire.
http://beta.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-creek-fire-20171205-story.html
Mass evacuations as fire burns more than 2,500 acres in Sylmar area 
<http://beta.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-creek-fire-20171205-story.html>
The blaze comes as firefighters are dealing with a fast-moving, 
wind-fueled wildfire that swept into the city of Ventura, burning 31,000 
acres, destroying homes and forcing 27,000 people to evacuate. About 150 
structures - including at least one large apartment complex - were 
consumed by flames, and many more were threatened as the fire crept 
about a quarter-mile from Ventura City Hall.
http://beta.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-evacuation-ventura-county-fire-20171204-story.html


*Americans oppose drilling in Arctic National Wildlife Refuge 
<http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/americans-oppose-drilling-arctic-national-wildlife-refuge/>*
The tax bills that were recently approved by the U.S. Senate and House 
of Representatives each contain a provision allowing drilling for oil 
and gas in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. The bill now heads for 
reconciliation by the two chambers, an up or down vote of the final bill 
by the House and Senate, and then to President Trump for his signature...
*In our most recent nationally representative survey, conducted in late 
October, we found that a large majority of American voters (70%) oppose 
drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Those strongly opposed 
outnumber those who strongly support the policy by more than 4 to 1.*
Further, majorities of Democrats (84%), Independents (64%), and 
Republicans (52%) oppose drilling for oil in the Arctic National 
Wildlife Refuge. Only 18% of Republicans "strongly support" the policy.
For more information about the survey methodology, please click here 
<http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/climate-change-american-mind-october-2017/11/>.
http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/americans-oppose-drilling-arctic-national-wildlife-refuge/


*Monster heat wave reaches Greenland, bringing rain and melting its ice 
sheet 
<https://thinkprogress.org/omg-heat-wave-scorches-greenland-up-to-54f-warmer-than-normal-9981de9c6a92/>*
NASA's Oceans Melting Greenland (OMG) mission warns the ice sheet is 
more at risk to global warming than we knew...
It's been unusually warm in the United States in recent days, with 
records being set across the country. But it's been scorching in 
Greenland, with temperatures as much as 54 degrees above normal, which 
means above freezing in many places.
And this comes on the heels of new research from NASA's aptly-named 
Oceans Melting Greenland (OMG) mission, which finds that the enormous 
ice sheet is far more unstable than we realized. That's bad news because 
the Greenland ice sheet contains enough land-locked ice to raise sea 
levels by over 20 feet....
The bottom line is that over half of the entire ice sheet may be at risk 
from this underwater melting. We knew that global warming is leading to 
more of the kind of monster heatwaves that intensify and extend the 
surface melt season on Greenland - the kind it is now experiencing. But 
we are learning that global warming poses a potentially larger risk to 
underwater melt from warming ocean waters.
https://thinkprogress.org/omg-heat-wave-scorches-greenland-up-to-54f-warmer-than-normal-9981de9c6a92/


*Sir David Attenborough begs Donald Trump not to ruin our planet amid US 
plans to withdraw from climate change agreement 
<http://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/sir-david-attenborough-begs-donald-11634625>*
Blue Planet II narrator has asked the US president to reconsider as he 
warns carbon dioxide in the sea will kill all coral by 2100
By Nicola Methven
we have a responsibility to protect the planet and all life on Earth
The broadcaster, 91, said he hoped the President had seen the error of 
his ways since he announced the US would quit the 2015 deal.
Trump believes the accord, which aims to slash global carbon emissions, 
is bad for the US economy and will quit it in 2020. He justified his 
decision by saying: "I was elected to ­represent the citizens of 
Pittsburgh, not Paris."
But ahead of the final episode of Blue Planet II on BBC1, Sir David 
said: "Let us hope that Trump will eventually recognise that the Paris 
Agreement was not about Pittsburgh, or even Paris, but the entire planet.
"Never before have we been so aware of what we are doing to our planet - 
and never before have we had such power to do something about it."
http://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/sir-david-attenborough-begs-donald-11634625


*Skepticism takes many forms 
<https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/12/171201104726.htm>*
Not every kind of science skepticism is the same. For example, 
skepticism about climate change is linked to political ideology, whereas 
skepticism about vaccinations consistently correlates with religious 
beliefs. In contrast, skepticism about genetically modified foods is not 
fuelled by religious or political ideology. These are some of the major 
findings of a new research study conducted by UvA psychologist Bastiaan 
Rutjens among North Americans. The results were published on Friday, 1 
December in the journal Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin.
Why are some people more skeptical about science than others? And how 
big is the influence of political conviction and religion on the degree 
of skepticism? 'Extensive research has been done in particular on 
political ideology as a predictor of climate change skepticism, for 
example. To date, however, no research exists in which different forms 
of skepticisms are studied simultaneously and in which several different 
predictors are taking into account', says Rutjens. 'In our research, we 
focused on skepticism about climate change, genetically modified foods 
and vaccinations. We also looked at general levels of trust in science.'
*The importance of science*
For their study, the researchers presented several groups of online 
participants with items and surveys on science. The participants were 
then asked to grade various statements, including: 'human CO2 emissions 
cause climate change' and 'vaccinations cause autism'. The researchers 
also used a basic test to assess the participants' level of science 
literacy and asked them to do a short task in which they could indicate 
the level of priority the government should give to science, and more 
particularly the amount of money that should be allocated to science.
The results reveal that climate change skepticism coincides with 
political beliefs, particularly social conservatism. Skepticism about 
vaccinations is consistently correlated to religious conviction -- 
higher levels of religiosity correspond with higher levels of mistrust 
in vaccinations. The best predictors of skepticism about genetically 
modified foods are the level of trust in and knowledge about science. 
Finally, the researchers observed that the degree of importance attached 
to science mainly correlates with religiosity, and much less with 
political beliefs or knowledge about science. Religious conservatives 
who took part in the study were also found to be the least supportive of 
allocating money to science.
*Scientific literacy*
"Our research also shows that skepticism cannot be reduced simply by 
increasing the level of science literacy. Some people have a problem 
with (certain forms of) science on account of ideological, religious or 
moral reasons. This cannot be addressed by simply increasing their 
knowledge of science," says Rutjens. "What might help is to change the 
way science or certain findings are framed. This, for example, is one of 
the results that emerged from research by Matthew Baldwin and Joris 
Lammers, which was published last year in PNAS. Their findings revealed 
that conservatives are more open to the idea of climate change if a 
comparison is made with the past instead of the current frame in which 
future scenarios dominate."
The research was conducted entirely on participants and data from North 
America. Rutjens plans to do comparative research among other 
nationalities, starting with Europeans. "We might very likely identify 
other patterns," says Rutjens.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/12/171201104726.htm


*(opinion) The moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the Republican Party 
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/dec/04/the-moral-and-intellectual-bankruptcy-of-the-republican-party>*
The GOP strategy on taxes and climate: reject evidence and expert 
opinion, lie, and wage culture wars
Dana Nuccitelli
Monday 4 December 2017 06.00 EST Last modified on Monday 4 December 2017 
06.02 EST
The parallels between the Republican Party positions on taxes and 
climate change are striking. Both are morally appalling and reject the 
available evidence and expert opinion.
The Initiative on Global Markets' panel of economic experts was recently 
asked about the Republican tax plan. Among the experts who took a 
position either way, there was a 96% consensus that the plan would not 
substantially grow the economy more than the status quo, and a 100% 
consensus that it would substantially increase the national debt.
Those numbers are quite similar to the 97% consensus among climate 
scientists that humans are driving global warming and the 95% consensus 
among economists that the US should cut its carbon pollution...
The House and Senate Republicans have passed similar versions of their 
tax bill, and neither chamber is allowing any climate policy to move 
forward...
So what's making Republican Party leaders reject the expert consensus on 
these incredibly important issues?...
As Nobel-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said, "Either it's a 
religious belief, a belief where no amount of evidence would change 
that, or they are using the argument cynically and they just want more 
money for themselves." He was talking about trickle-down economics, but 
just as easily could have been describing climate denial...
Eating away at the GOP intellectual core: Fox News
A 2012 survey found that Americans who only watch Fox News are less 
informed than Americans who watch no news at all. At the time, 55% of 
Americans including 75% of Republicans reported watching Fox News. The 
network is powerful - a recent study found that Fox News might have 
enough influence to tip American elections - and on the whole it 
prioritizes ideological messaging over factual accuracy...
Trump's attacks on the so-called "fake news" media have further eroded 
Republicans' trust of news sources that lack a conservative bias. As 
David Roberts wrote for Vox:

    The US is experiencing a deep epistemic breach, a split not just in
    what we value or want, but in who we trust, how we come to know
    things, and what we believe we know - what we believe exists, is
    true, has happened and is happening … the right has created its own
    parallel set of institutions, most notably its own media ecosystem …
    "conservative media is more partisan and more insular than the left."

Similarly, climate denial is based on endless myths and misinformation - 
Skeptical Science has catalogued and debunked about 200 of them 
<https://skepticalscience.com/argument.php>. And recent research showed 
that these myths are quite effective at misinforming their audience. 
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/nov/29/new-study-uncovers-the-keystone-domino-strategy-of-climate-denial> 
...
It's all morally reprehensible, and so far, it's working. At this point, 
the only way to fix the problem is to defeat the Republicans who have 
rotted their party to its core and are now spreading that rot throughout 
America and the rest of the world.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/dec/04/the-moral-and-intellectual-bankruptcy-of-the-republican-party
-
(Map) Estimated % of registered Republicans who think global warming is 
mostly caused by human activities, 2016 
<http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/11/this-map-shows-exactly-how-many-republicans-in-your-district-dont-believe-in-global-warming/>
http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/11/this-map-shows-exactly-how-many-republicans-in-your-district-dont-believe-in-global-warming/


*"The Last Great Exploration On Earth Is To Survive On Earth" 
<https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-last-great-exploration-on-earth-is-to-survive_us_5a236d66e4b05072e8b569ea>*
Aiko Stevenson, Contributor
Robert Swan OBE <http://www.2041.com/robert-swan/>...he is retracing his 
footsteps back to the South Pole together with his 23 year old son 
Barney. Passing on the baton of polar exploration from one generation to 
the next, the duo are the first father and son team to make the 600 mile 
trek 
<https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/robert-and-barney-swan-limber-up-for-solar-powered-polar-adventure-w3xhf5mt2>,..
Twice the size of Texas and two and a half miles thick 
<https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2017/07/antarctica-sea-level-rise-climate-change/>, 
it has two of the largest and fastest melting glaciers in Antarctica: 
Pine Island and Thwaites. Stretching over 150 miles long 
<https://grist.org/article/antarctica-doomsday-glaciers-could-flood-coastal-cities/>, 
"together, they act as a plug holding back enough ice to pour 11 feet of 
sea-level rise into the world's oceans," writes Eric Holthaus in Grist. 
<https://grist.org/article/antarctica-doomsday-glaciers-could-flood-coastal-cities/>
That's enough water to inundate every coastal city on the planet. 
Although there is no doubt that this ice will melt as the planet warms 
up, the important question is: when?
And, the bad news is that when we look back to the end of the last Ice 
Age, (when temperatures were similar to where they are now), both 
glaciers collapsed very quickly. That's because the ocean floor there is 
so deep that each new iceberg that breaks off exposes higher and higher 
cliffs which eventually buckle under their own weight.
"And, once they start to crumble," writes Holthaus: "The destruction 
would be unstoppable. Minute-by-minute, huge skyscraper-sized shards of 
ice cliffs would crumble into the sea, as tall as the Statue of Liberty 
and as deep underwater as the height of the Empire State Building. The 
result: a global catastrophe the likes of which we've never seen."
With half of the world's population living within 50 miles of the coast, 
such a seismic event would create hundreds of millions of climate 
refugees, whilst wiping out trillions of dollars of property. And, 
although scientists used to think that it would take millennia to melt 
these ice sheets, the work of two prominent climatologists 
<https://www.nature.com/articles/nature17145.epdf?referrer_access_token=3pYbX2r78-5squl3O1C7VdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0M-pvJMg7VLINRa2mnTNsvXHo27XGipFYASWYeuVfMI6vfDgWVX4CDZPI6LE9T76qWyloMessSXmHlgrTc4eYo6snojtwiQ0vxUWo-va3LBGAmcwViMQaOUn3nut7x0SLMen6aiNKogSqACh40dQG55tuCLA0u-ExmTz4vftV317m-yQIlPN3rWMw5vZfzhBwJtmXcPmeWMluUAVcdDxJMj&tracking_referrer=grist.org>suggests 
that it could happen as early as this century if carbon emissions 
continue along their business-as-usual trajectory.
"Antarctica used to be the sleeping elephant", notes 
<http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/the-doomsday-glacier-w481260> 
Mark Serreze, the head of the National Snow and Ice Data Center: "But 
now the elephant is stirring," begging the question: will we heed its 
warming? In a rational world, humans would do anything to prevent this 
nightmare. Instead, as Jeff Goodell writes in Rolling Stone: 
<http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/the-doomsday-glacier-w481260>

    "Americans elected a president who thinks climate change is a hoax,
    who is hellbent on burning more fossil fuels, who installs the CEO
    of the world's largest oil company as secretary of state, and who
    wants to slash climate-science funding and instead spend nearly $70
    billion on a wall at the Mexican border."

Ever since Donald Trump took over the White House this year, our odds of 
surviving this planetary crisis have considerably worsened: the property 
tycoon pulled the US out of the Paris climate accord 
<http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/the-doomsday-glacier-w481260> 
this summer. The treaty, though short on ambition, represented 
humanity's best chance of survival as it committed world leaders to 
limiting global warming to two degrees celsius. Endorsed by over 190 
nations when it was signed in 2015, it was hailed as a "historic" 
<http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/the-doomsday-glacier-w481260>victory 
for mankind.
Without it, according to the UN's latest climate study, world 
temperatures will race past the four degrees Celsius 
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/dec/31/planet-will-warm-4c-2100-climate> 
mark well before the turn of this century. This will usher in changes 
not seen since the last Ice Age, marking the end of civilisation as we 
know it. And, to make matters worse, 4C is only the median forecast: 
<http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html> 
the upper end of the curve goes as high as 8C...
"The greatest threat to our planet is the belief that someone else will 
save it." After all, with a steep temperature rise sitting on our 
collective horizon: "The last great exploration on Earth is to survive 
on Earth."
The Swans are expected to reach the Pole on January 15th. You can follow 
their journey here <http://www.2041.com/blog/>: http://www.2041.com/blog/
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-last-great-exploration-on-earth-is-to-survive_us_5a236d66e4b05072e8b569ea
-
[Nature]
*Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise 
<https://www.nature.com/articles/nature17145.epdf?referrer_access_token=3pYbX2r78-5squl3O1C7VdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0M-pvJMg7VLINRa2mnTNsvXHo27XGipFYASWYeuVfMI6vfDgWVX4CDZPI6LE9T76qWyloMessSXmHlgrTc4eYo6snojtwiQ0vxUWo-va3LBGAmcwViMQaOUn3nut7x0SLMen6aiNKogSqACh40dQG55tuCLA0u-ExmTz4vftV317m-yQIlPN3rWMw5vZfzhBwJtmXcPmeWMluUAVcdDxJMj&tracking_referrer=grist.org>*
Article summary:
Polar temperatures over the last several million years have, at times, 
been slightly warmer than today, yet global mean sea level has been 6-9 
metres higher as recently as the Last Interglacial (130,000 to 115,000 
years ago) and possibly higher during the Pliocene epoch (about three 
million years ago). In both cases the Antarctic ice sheet has been 
implicated as the primary contributor, hinting at its future 
vulnerability. Here we use a model coupling ice sheet and climate 
dynamics-including previously underappreciated processes linking 
atmospheric warming with hydrofracturing of buttressing ice shelves and 
structural collapse of marine-terminating ice cliffs-that is calibrated 
against Pliocene and Last Interglacial sea-level estimates and applied 
to future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Antarctica has the 
potential to contribute more than a metre of sea-level rise by 2100 and 
more than 15 metres by 2500, if emissions continue unabated. In this 
case atmospheric warming will soon become the dominant driver of ice 
loss, but prolonged ocean warming will delay its recovery for thousands 
of years.
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature17145.epdf


*This Day in Climate History December 5, 2007 
<http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2007/12/05/what_s_wrong_with_war_for_oil2> 
-  from D.R. Tucker*
December 5, 2007: In a monologue that clearly explains why he had
spent the previous nineteen years claiming that climate change was a
hoax, Rush Limbaugh declares:
"Can I give you a real simple reality? It may be controversial, but
it's inarguable. This is a world that runs on fossil fuels, folks, and
it's going to run on fossil fuels long after you and I and your
grandkids are dead. Wind, solar, all pipe dream stuff, as we sit here
and speak now. Would somebody explain to me what is so immoral about
the leaders of this country attempting to maintain a supply and access
to the fossil fuel that runs the world and runs our economy?...What
I'm suggesting here is that even if a part of all of the strategy here
[with the Iraq War] is to maintain the free flow of oil at market
prices, what in the name of Sam Hill is wrong with that? What's the
crime? Where's the immorality in it?"
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2007/12/05/what_s_wrong_with_war_for_oil2

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