[TheClimate.Vote] October 13, 2017 - Daily Global Warming News
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Fri Oct 13 09:31:28 EDT 2017
/October 13, 2017/
*THE NAPA FIRE IS A PERFECTLY NORMAL APOCALYPSE
<https://www.wired.com/story/the-napa-fire-is-a-perfectly-normal-apocalypse/>*
BLAME THE WIND,if you want. In Southern California they call it theSanta
Ana
<https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/cnap/wp-content/uploads/sites/109/2017/02/GuzmanMorales2016_SantaAnaWinds.pdf>;
in the north, the Diablos. Every autumn, from 4,000 feet up in the Great
Basin deserts of Nevada and Utah, air drops down over the mountains and
through the canyons. By the time it gets near the coast it's hot, dry,
and can gust as fast as a hurricane.
Or blame lightning, or carelessness, or downed power lines. No one yet
knows the cause of the more than a dozen fires ablaze around California,
but fires start wherehumans meet the wild forests
<https://www.wired.com/story/wildfire-housing-crisis/>, where people
build for solitude or space or beauty. Things go wrong in those liminal
spaces, at the interface between the wilds and the built.
So blame sprawl, or civilization's cycling of wilderness into rural into
exurban into suburban-urban agglomerations with an ever-expanding wavefront.
Blame all of it. There's a reason the great Californian writer Raymond
Chandler called it theRed Wind
<http://www.design.caltech.edu/erik/Misc/Red_Wind-Raymond_Chandler.pdf>-winds
"that come down through the mountain passes and curl your hair and make
your nerves jump and your skin itch." Those winds blast down from the
mountains and fansmall fires into infernos
<https://www.wired.com/tag/wildfires/>, and sometimes those infernos
maim or kill a city. In 1991 it was in thehills of Oakland
<http://www.ebparks.org/about/fire/fire_history>. And this past weekend
it was Napa and Sonoma, and the town of Santa Rosa. At least 15 people
are dead. More than 1,500 houses are gone. Theskies of the West
<https://www.wired.com/2015/08/stuart-palley-terra-flamma-hellish-beauty-california-wildfires-drought/>are
full of dust and ash.
https://www.wired.com/story/the-napa-fire-is-a-perfectly-normal-apocalypse/
*Hurricane Maria: Three weeks after landfall, Puerto Rico is still dark,
dry, frustrated. <http://www.dailyclimate.org/t/1195107355338417156>*
While the metropolis of San Juan inches toward normalcy, much of the
rest of the island still awaits basic services. Washington Post.
http://www.dailyclimate.org/t/1195107355338417156
*Warming seas could lead to 70 percent increase in hurricane-related
financial loss
<https://phys.org/news/2017-10-seas-percent-hurricane-related-financial-loss.html>*
Phys.Org
If oceans warm at a rate predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, the United Nation-sponsored group that assesses climate
change research and issues periodic reports, expected financial losses
caused by hurricanes could increase more than 70 percent by 2100,
according to a study just published in the journal Sustainable and
Resilient Infrastructure.
Read more at:
https://phys.org/news/2017-10-seas-percent-hurricane-related-financial-loss.html#jCp
"What is today's worst case scenario will likely become more probable in
the IPCC's future reports if little action is taken to slow the effects
of climate change."
The increasing severity of hurricanes will also affect hurricane
modeling, Rosowsky said, and consequent predictions of damage and
financial loss. In a postscript to the paper, which will also be
published as a chapter in a forthcoming book, Rosowsky cites the three
catastrophic storms of the current hurricane season, Harvey, Irma and
Maria, as examples of events so severe they will shift the assumptions
about the likelihood that such severe hurricanes will occur in the future.
https://phys.org/news/2017-10-seas-percent-hurricane-related-financial-loss.html
*(video music poem) Bill Murray with Jan Vogler & Friends Perform 'Saint
Säens: <https://youtu.be/G80v5a-7wlI?t=15s>*
The honorable Bill Murray performs a poem, 'Blessing the Boats' by
Lucille Clifton, backed by his companions on the new album 'New
Worlds.' 2:15
https://youtu.be/G80v5a-7wlI?t=15s
*The Climate Disasters of 2017 (So Far): By the Numbers
<https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2017/10/12/climate-change-disasters-hurricane-wildfires-drought/>*
Climate Liability News
Here's a look at the crazy numbers of 2017's climate-related disasters:
*$300 billion-A preliminary estimate of the total damages caused by
hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria *- double the cumulative cost of all
the decade's previous hurricanes, according to the Universal Ecological
Fund. Official U.S. government estimates of losses from the three
hurricanes are still being assessed, and are expected to be released by
the end of the year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration.
*10-Number of consecutive Atlantic storms* that have developed into
hurricanes, the first time that has happened since 1893. That milestone
was reached when Ophelia reached hurricane strength on Wednesday,
putting her on the list with Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irma, Jose, Katia,
Lee, Maria and Nate.
*$36.5 billion-Amount of disaster relief* in the package proposed by
House Republicans on Tuesday to help recovery and rebuilding from the
year's hurricanes, floods and wildfires.
*$5 billion-Puerto Rico relief *designated in that package as a loan
that the territory must pay back, despite its already staggering debt
and the continuing devastation.
*$567.5 million-Amount of that package earmarked for the U.S. Forest
Service to combat wildfires.*
*At least 20-The death toll of the Northern California wildfires in Napa
and Sonoma counties as of late Wednesday. *More than 240 people remain
missing after hurricane-force winds blew the blazes across wine country,
destroying more than 2,000 buildings and scorching over 122,000 acres.
*8,502,805 acres-The total number of acres burned by wildfire in the
U.S. in 2017 through Oct. 10, *making the year's wildfire season the
second-worst of the decade in terms of land area burned. More land -
about 8.8 million acres - burned in 2012 than any other year this
decade. Over the previous decade, 2006-2016, an average of 6 million
acres burned annually, according to the National Interagency Fire Center.
*$5.1 billion-Total losses from U.S. wildfires in the decade leading up
to the 2017 wildfire season, *according to Verisk Insurance Solutions.
The firm also estimates that 4.5 million homes in the U.S. are it high
or extreme risk of wildfire.
*$2 billion-NOAA's estimate of the losses from all of the West's
wildfires burning during July and August.* The year's devastating
wildfires were fueled by extreme drought in the Pacific Northwest.
*$2.5 billion-NOAA's estimate of the losses from the North Dakota, South
Dakota and Montana drought,* which devastated agriculture and fed
wildfires between March and September.
*15-Number of weather and climate events with at least $1 billion in
damages so far in 2017*, according to NOAA.
*6.9 million people-The number of people living in an area around
Houston that received or 30 or more inches of rainfall,* submerging much
of the city beneath floodwaters high enough to submerge traffic lights.
*2.7 to 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit-Degrees above normal the water of the
Gulf of Mexico registered as Hurricane Harvey approached *Houston,
fueling the amount of water the storm could hold. The stretch of the
Atlantic Ocean that Irma traveled over was up to 2 degrees warmer,
according to the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
*60.58 inches-Total rainfall from Hurricane Harvey recorded in
Nederland, Texas. *National Weather Service meteorologist Nikki Hathaway
said that rainfall amounts are still being verified, and the agency is
still determining whether that rainfall total represents a precipitation
record for the continental U.S. A previously reported Harvey rainfall
total of 51.88 inches in Cedar Bayou, Texas, was found to be incorrect.
*70 percent-Amount of damage from Harvey estimated to be covered by no
form of insurance*.
*37 Hours-Total time Hurricane Irma maintained an intensity of 165 knots
or greater,* with winds reaching 185 mph or greater, possibly breaking a
global record for duration of tropical cyclone intensity. Phil
Klotzbach, a research scientist who forecasts hurricanes at Colorado
State University, said his research of global cyclone data found that
only Typhoon Haiyan, which devastated the Philippines in 2013, came
close to being so intense for so long. Haiyan maintained 165-knot or
greater intensity for 24 hours.
*50-Days remaining in Atlantic hurricane season.*
https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2017/10/12/climate-change-disasters-hurricane-wildfires-drought/
*(opinion) World needs a collective strategy to deal with US at Bonn
climate conference
<http://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/world-needs-a-collective-strategy-to-deal-with-us-at-bonn-climate-conference-58864>*
US move to repeal Clean Power Plan proves that naming and shaming has
not worked, nor are the statements to stand united on Paris Agreements
enough.
Repercussions of Trump's climate denial:
Trump's antagonism on climate change has turned out to have at least
three major repercussions: Trump has been branded irresponsible for not
standing up to the need of addressing climate change despite the US
being the largest contributor. Secondly, even though, it was thought
that city-level and sub-national actions
<http://www.downtoearth.org.in/blog/us-states-push-for-climate-change-action-despite-country-s-exit-from-paris-deal-58189>
should be the new focus of climate agenda, the federal-level actions
have greatly undermined those actions and positive mood as well.
Thirdly, and most importantly, the US has set a bad precedence to other
countries by making it clear that it is not necessary to fulfill even
the domestic climate targets.
Trump has hinted at being open to re-negotiation of Paris Agreement to
secure American interests. This has invited questions and suspicions as
to how the US would behave from now on in climate negotiations as it
would still remain part of the official negotiations for three years, as
per the process.
With Paris Agreement being voluntary in nature and lacking strong
compliance mechanisms, the question of how to deal with rogue players
such as the US becomes a crucial one. The world cannot continue to stay
hostage to US' irresponsible actions. It is important to check its
regressive steps and enable it to join in the global efforts to cut
emissions and switch to cleaner energy sources. The nature of climate
diplomacy does not warrant coercive diplomacy, but imposing restrictions
in select sectors could be one option. Diplomatic isolation of such
players is definitely needed to send a loud and clear message on the
need for adopting ambitious climate actions and deter other countries
from following the US policy.
The lead climate negotiator from Fiji has demanded a strong political
statement in the UN Climate Change Conference in Bonn this November. It
reflects political will, but it cannot be restricted to that. A
collective strategy to respond to and deal with the US is the need of
the hour.
http://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/world-needs-a-collective-strategy-to-deal-with-us-at-bonn-climate-conference-58864
*Geologic evidence is the forerunner of ominous prospects for a warming
earth
<https://phys.org/news/2017-10-geologic-evidence-forerunner-ominous-prospects.html>*
Phys.Org
A new analysis published in Marine Geology shows that the limestone
islands of the Bahamas and Bermuda experienced climate changes that were
even more extreme than historical events.
...It demonstrates that during a global climate transition in the late
last ... These events occurred at a time of only slightly warmer global
climate and CO2 ...
During the last interglacial, sea levels were about 3-9 meters higher
than they are now. The geologic evidence indicates that the higher
sea-levels were accompanied by intense "superstorms," which deposited
giant wave-transported boulders at the top of cliffed coastlines, formed
chevron-shaped, storm beach ridges in lowland areas, and left wave runup
deposits on older dunes more than 30 meters above sea level. These
events occurred at a time of only slightly warmer global climate and CO2
(about 275 ppm) was much lower than today.
The authors emphasize "the LIG record reveals that strong climate
forcing is not required to yield major impacts on the ocean and ice
caps." In our industrial world, rapidly increasing atmospheric CO2 has
surpassed 400 ppm, levels not achieved since the Pliocene era about 3
million years ago, while global temperature has increased nearly 1
degree C since the 1870s. Today, ice sheets are melting, sea level is
rising, oceans are warming, and weather events are becoming more extreme...
Drs. Hearty and Tormey conclude that with the greatly increased
anthropogenic CO2 forcing at rates unmatched in nature, except perhaps
during global extinction events, dramatic change is certain. They
caution that, "Our global society is producing a climate system that is
racing forward out of humanity's control into an uncertain future. If we
seek to understand the non-anthropogenic events of the last
interglaciation, some of the consequences of our unchecked forward speed
may come more clearly into focus...a message from the past; a glimpse
into the future."
https://phys.org/news/2017-10-geologic-evidence-forerunner-ominous-prospects.html
*Conserving habitat not enough to help species cope with climate change
<https://news.mongabay.com/2017/10/conserving-habitat-not-enough-to-help-species-cope-with-climate-change/>*
New research finds that habitat-based conservation strategies don't
adequately compensate for the range that species in three groups stand
to lose due to climate change.
The team of scientists based in Austria looked at the effects of climate
change on 51 species of grasshoppers, butterflies and vascular plants
living in central Europe.
Habitat-based conservation can provide a lifeline, but their model
predicts that it won't be enough to prevent some species from regional
extinction.
The researchers also found that certain strategies in their model were
more effective than others. Managing protected areas such as parks and
reserves and the creation of corridors to connect habitats did a better
job of providing the species with suitable homes than did the piecemeal
restoration of fragmented habitats, which they referred to as "matrix
improvement."
"However, none of the conservation strategies evaluated could fully
compensate the negative impact of climate change for vascular plants,
butterflies or grasshoppers in central Europe," the authors write.
Alpine species - those living in mountain habitats - can face a
particularly tough road to survival in the face of climate change,
according to the research. In part that's because few of them can
survive in tree-heavy environments, the authors state, so in order to
create viable habitats for them, we would have to take the
counter-intuitive - and carbon-releasing - step of getting rid of
largely natural forests.
Critically, habitat conservation didn't prevent some lowland and alpine
species from disappearing completely from the region.
"For those species that went extinct, we observed a slight delay (due to
an increase in their range compared to business-as-usual scenario) but
no reversal of the deadly trend," Wessely said. "One implication is that
it is very important to identify species that are threatened to develop
particular conservation strategies for them."
https://news.mongabay.com/2017/10/conserving-habitat-not-enough-to-help-species-cope-with-climate-change/
*Bill McKibben*
*(YouTube video) Chubb Fellowship Lecture : "Simply Too Hot: the
Desperate Science and Politics of Climate"
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0jOymmkpGQ>*
Yale University Oct 10, 2017
This Chubb Fellowship Lecture will feature Bill McKibben, an author and
environmentalist who in 2014 was awarded the Right Livelihood Prize,
sometimes called the "alternative Nobel." He is a founder of 350.org.
More about Bill McKibben and the Chubb Fellowship at:
http://chubbfellowship.org
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0jOymmkpGQ starts 19 minutes in
*A Brief Climate Change Reading List
<http://www.architectmagazine.com/design/editorial/a-brief-climate-change-reading-list_o>*
Six books that present the truths and consequences of our global
addiction to fossil fuels.
The fossil fuel industry and its allies have fueled a massive
disinformation campaign on the subject of climate change. If you're
looking for honest reporting and informed opinion on the subject, check
out the following six books:
*Climate Change: What Everyone Needs to Know,* by Joseph Romm (Oxford
University Press, 2015) Lost in a sea of data and jargon? Romm's
scientific primer answers essential questions such as "What is the
difference between weather and climate?" and "What will the impacts of
sea-level rise be?"
*Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed*, by Jared Diamond
(Penguin Books, 2005) Easter Island, Angkor, Copán: We've been down this
road before. That's the message Diamond sends with Collapse, through
eye-opening case studies of self-inflicted environmental catastrophe
throughout history.
*The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History,* by Elizabeth Kolbert
(Henry Holt & Co., 2014) Farewell, Golden Toad: Amphibians are going
extinct at 45,000 times the historical background rate. The New Yorker's
Kolbert documents the tragic evidence of mass species loss due to human
activity.
*This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. the Climate,* by Naomi Klein
(Simon & Schuster, 2014) Perhaps the most challenging of the books on
the list, This Changes Everything exposes the often terrible
socio-environmental costs of privatization, deregulation, and other
tenets of neoliberal economics.
*Drawdown: The Most Comprehensive Plan Ever Proposed to Reverse Global
Warming, *edited by Paul Hawken (Penguin Books, 2017) For those who fear
all is lost, Hawken provides an antidote-dozens of them, actually.
Drawdown compiles proven methods to reduce CO2 emissions and increase
efficiency, in arenas from agriculture to architecture.
*Eaarth: Making a Life on a Tough New Planet*, by Bill McKibben (Henry
Holt & Co., 2010) McKibben, writing during the Great Recession,
characterizes the society and systems we need to build in response to
climate change: slower, smaller, more durable, decentralized, and,
possibly, more rewarding.
http://www.architectmagazine.com/design/editorial/a-brief-climate-change-reading-list_o
*(classic) The World Wasted Trillions of Dollars on Fossil Fuels Because
of Bad Math
<https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/d7edgk/governments-wasted-trillions-on-fossil-fuels-without-even-noticing-because-of-bad-math>*
The global measurement of fossil fuel subsidies is most likely wrong.
Government subsidies for fossil fuels over the last three decades have
been far larger than anyone previously thought, according to a new study
<https://www.policyschool.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/fossil-fuels-stefanski.pdf>
published by the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy in March.
A fossil fuel subsidy is any government policy
<http://priceofoil.org/fossil-fuel-subsidies/> that lowers the cost of
fossil fuel production, raises prices received by producers, or lowers
prices paid by consumers: they can consist of tax breaks and direct
funding for fossil fuel companies. But subsidies can also consist of
loans, price controls, or giveaways in the form of land or water at
below market-rates, and many other actions.
So what's the damage? It's pretty colossal. For the last year in his
model, 2010, Stefanski found that the total global direct and indirect
financial costs of all fossil fuel subsidies was $1.82 trillion, or 3.8
percent of global GDP. He also found that the subsidies meant much
higher carbon emissions released into our atmosphere.
Policymakers looking for a quick fix for environmental, energy and
economic problems would do well to heed Stefanski's final words of advice:
"Any government looking to ease strained budgets and make a significant
(and cheap) contribution to the fight against climate change must
consider slashing fossil fuel subsidies."
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/d7edgk/governments-wasted-trillions-on-fossil-fuels-without-even-noticing-because-of-bad-math
*This Day in Climate History October 13, - from D.R. Tucker*
/
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
////Send email to subscribe
<a%20href=%22mailto:contact at theClimate.Vote%22> to this mailing. /
. *** Privacy and Security: * This is a text-only mailing that
carries no images which may originate from remote servers.
Text-only messages provide greater privacy to the receiver and
sender.
By regulation, the .VOTE top-level domain must be used for
democratic and election purposes and cannot be used for
commercial purposes.
To subscribe, email: contact at theclimate.vote with subject:
subscribe, To Unsubscribe, subject: unsubscribe
Also youmay subscribe/unsubscribe at
https://pairlist10.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/theclimate.vote
Links and headlines assembled and curated by Richard Paulifor
http://TheClimate.Vote delivering succinct information for
citizens and responsible governments of all levels. List
membership is confidential and records are scrupulously
restricted to this mailing list.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote/attachments/20171013/459befe4/attachment.html>
More information about the TheClimate.Vote
mailing list