[TheClimate.Vote] August 5, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/August 5, 2018/

[That's about 118 F]
*Europe heatwave: Hottest day in Europe ever could come in the next week 
<https://www.9news.com.au/world/2018/08/03/09/02/europe-heatwave-could-break-records-temperatures-rise>*
Hot air from Africa is bringing a new heatwave to Europe, which 
forecasters say could break records as the continent continues to swelter.
Health warnings have been issued about Sahara Desert dust and 
exceptionally high temperatures that are forecast to peak at 47 degrees 
Celsius (116.6 Fahrenheit) in some southern areas.
The UK Met Office said parts of the Iberian peninsula could beat the 
all-time continental European record of 48 degrees Celsius (118.4 
degrees Fahrenheit) this week, with inland areas likely to be hotter 
than the coast.
That record was set in the Greek capital, Athens, in July 1977. 
According to the World Meteorological Organization, the record for Spain 
is currently 47.3 Celsius, while for Portugal it's 47.4 Celsius.
https://www.9news.com.au/world/2018/08/03/09/02/europe-heatwave-could-break-records-temperatures-rise


[worsening confounds, understanding still possible]
*Our climate plans are in pieces as killer summer shreds records 
<https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/04/world/climate-change-deadly-summer-wxc-intl/index.html>*
By Angela Dewan, CNN August 5, 2018
(CNN)Deadly fires have scorched swaths of the Northern Hemisphere this 
summer, from California to Arctic Sweden and down to Greece on the sunny 
Mediterranean. Drought in Europe has turned verdant land barren, while 
people in Japan and Korea are dying from record-breaking heat.
Climate change is here and is affecting the entire globe -- not just the 
polar bears or tiny islands vulnerable to rising sea levels -- 
scientists say. It is on the doorsteps of everyday Americans, Europeans 
and Asians, and the best evidence shows it will get much worse...
https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/04/world/climate-change-deadly-summer-wxc-intl/index.html


[Low waters reveal the past]
*Record heat is stoking wildfires in Europe - and it's setting off 
leftover bombs from World War II 
<https://www.businessinsider.com/record-heat-in-europe-cause-forest-wildfires-and-explode-world-war-ii-2018-8>*
Europe is wilting under record heat that has already sparked deadly 
fires and looks unlikely to relent any time soon.
The heat is exacerbating another problem that European countries have 
long dealt with: Still-potent weaponry left over from World War II.
At the end of July, firefighters grappling with a forest fire southwest 
of Berlin were further challenged by unexploded World War II ammunition 
still buried there...
- - - -
The heatwave in Germany has driven water levels so low along the Elbe 
River that weapons and ammunition from World War II have started to 
emerge. At the city of Magdeburg, the water level is just a few 
centimeters above the historic low measured in 1934.
In Saxony-Anhalt in eastern Germany, police have warned people not to 
touch the grenades, mines, or other weapons that have started to appear. 
Munitions were found five places last week, and over the past few weeks 
there have been 24 such finds , compared to 12 during all of last year. 
Specialists are working overtime to deal with the munitions - sometimes 
defusing them where they're found.
A police spokeswoman from the region said most of the munitions were 
discovered by people walking through areas usually covered by water, but 
some people had gone out in search of leftover explosives. "This is 
forbidden and dangerous," the spokeswoman said.
Even after decades underwater, the weapons can still be active - in some 
cases, sediment can build up and obscure rusted exteriors and the 
dangerous components inside. "Found ammunition is always dangerous," the 
spokeswoman said...
- - - -
On July 25, a Swedish Gripen fighter jet dropped a 500-pound 
laser-guided bomb close to a fire approaching a military firing range 
near Alvdalen, where tough terrain and unexploded ammunition made 
traditional firefighting methods unviable.
The bomb was used to "cut" the fire, as the explosion would burn oxygen 
on the ground and starve the flames of fuel.
It had a "very good effect," a Swedish official said.
https://www.businessinsider.com/record-heat-in-europe-cause-forest-wildfires-and-explode-world-war-ii-2018-8

*Extreme weather just caused a fire tornado and the world's hottest 
rainfall 
<https://thinkprogress.org/climate-change-extreme-weather-heat-wildfire-record-events-fddc7bcd43a4/>*
"We are now seeing the face of climate change."
KYLA MANDEL
AUG 3, 2018, 3:08 PM
And last week at the end of July, we saw the hottest temperature ever 
measured while rain was falling. Temperatures reached 119F in southern 
California near the U.S-Mexico border on July 24. At the same time 
clouds from the Gulf of California brought rain showers to the area. As 
the website Weather Underground wrote, this "sets a new record for the 
hottest rain in world history."...
- - - -
But on July 26 another extraordinary thing happened. That evening there 
was a sudden extreme, upwards expansion in the fire. This rapid vertical 
growth created an updraft, a so-called vortex of wind, which eventually 
created what looked like a tornado. According to estimates by the 
National Weather Service, this fire-tornado had winds exceeding 143 
miles per hour - equivalent to an EF3 tornado, which is on the more 
intense side of the 0-5 scale...
https://thinkprogress.org/climate-change-extreme-weather-heat-wildfire-record-events-fddc7bcd43a4/


[not the heat, but the failure to cool down]
*The disturbing reason heat waves can kill people in cooler climates 
<https://www.vox.com/2018/7/18/17561266/summer-2018-heat-wave-japan-texas-weather-health>*
It's not a record-high temperature that necessarily makes a heat wave 
dangerous. It's whether you can cool off.
By Umair Irfan  Updated Aug 1, 2018
These heat waves comport with what scientists expect from climate 
change. The body of evidence shows that the world will face longer, more 
intense heat waves as average temperatures go up, and that they will be 
deadly.
Already, at least 70 people have died in Canada from the recent heat. 
Record temperatures in recent weeks killed more than 90 people and 
injured more than 57,000 in Japan. In May, a heat wave killed 65 in 
Karachi, Pakistan.
But it turns out that heat waves are often most dangerous not 
necessarily where it's hottest, but where it's hardest to cool off...
- - - -
A 105 F day in Phoenix may barely register for Arizona residents, but 90 
F weather in Portland, Oregon, could send people to the hospital.
https://www.vox.com/2018/7/18/17561266/summer-2018-heat-wave-japan-texas-weather-health


[Gather 'round, kids]
*Teaching climate change in middle schools and high schools: 
investigating STEM education's deficit model 
<https://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-018-2253-8>*
Authors and affiliations - Eric Plutzer, Lee Hannah
Abstract

    Science teachers play an important role promoting civic scientific
    literacy, but recent research suggests they are less effective than
    they could be in educating the next generation of citizens about
    climate change and its causes. One particular area of concern is
    that many science teachers in the USA encourage students to debate
    settled empirical findings, such as the role of human-generated
    emissions of greenhouse gases in raising global temperatures. A
    common reaction is to call for science teachers to receive more
    formal training in climate science to increase their knowledge,
    which will then improve teaching. Using a nationally representative
    survey of 1500 middle school and high school science teachers, we
    investigate each element in this argument, and show that increased
    science coursework in college has modest effects on teachers'
    content knowledge and on their teaching choices, including decisions
    about debating "both sides." We also find that teachers' personal
    political orientations play a large role in their teaching
    strategies: right-leaning teachers devote somewhat less time to
    global warming and are much more likely to encourage student debate
    on the causes of global warming. We discuss the implications of
    these findings and argue teacher education might be more effective
    if informed by insights from the emerging discipline of science
    communication. However, although knowledge and ideology are
    predictive of pedagogy, a large number of teachers of all
    ideological positions and all levels of subject expertise encourage
    students to debate established findings. We discuss this and
    highlight potential explanations.

https://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-018-2253-8


*Heatwave and climate change having negative impact on our soil say 
experts <https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/08/180802102337.htm>*
Date: August 2, 2018
Source: University of Manchester

    Summary:
    The recent heatwave and drought could be having a deeper, more
    negative effect on soil than we first realized say scientists.
    That's because organisms in soil are highly diverse and are
    responsible not only for producing the soil we need to grow crops,
    but also provide humans with many other benefits, such as cleaning
    water and regulating greenhouse gas emissions.

"A major challenge is to understand how these complex microbial 
communities respond to and recover from disturbances, such as climate 
extremes, which are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity 
with climate change.
"These microbial communities within the soil play a crucial role in any 
ecosystem. But it wasn't known how soil networks respond to such 
disturbances until now."
Sequencing of soil DNA for the study was conducted at the Centre for 
Ecology & Hydrology (CEH). Dr Robert Griffiths, a molecular microbial 
ecologist at CEH, said: "This study further identifies those key 
organisms affected by drought, which will guide future research to 
predict how future soil microbial functions are affected by climate change."
The research team tested the effects of summer drought on plant 
communities consisting of four common grassland species. They found that 
drought increased the abundance of a certain fast-growing, 
drought-tolerant grass. With greater above ground vegetation comes an 
increased rate of evapotranspiration, or cycling of water from plants to 
the atmosphere, lowering the overall soil moisture.
- - - -
Unlike past research, this study considered the multitude of direct and 
indirect interactions occurring between different microbial organisms in 
soil. Rather than focusing on select attributes of bacteria and fungi, 
this research takes a comprehensive approach to studying soil ecosystems.
Dr de Vries added: "This study allows soil ecologists to estimate the 
current and future impacts of drought on belowground organisms, helping 
to understand the complex interactions of species due to climate change."
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/08/180802102337.htm


[RollingStone in 2015, but it could be this year]
*What Megablazes Tell Us About the Fiery Future of Climate Change 
<https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/what-megablazes-tell-us-about-the-fiery-future-of-climate-change-81547/>*
Pervasive drought and record temperatures have turned forests across 
California into tinderboxes. And it's only getting worse
By TIM DICKINSON
The tragedy of climate-driven megafire is that the fires themselves 
worsen global warming by pumping megatons of carbon dioxide into the 
atmosphere. This is especially true north of the Arctic Circle. For the 
past 5,000 years, the Arctic Alaskan tundra was too frigid and too wet 
to support significant wildfire. That changed in 2007, when a massive 
blaze ripped through Alaska's North Slope. The fire burned more than 400 
square miles, not only charring a pristine landscape, but setting off a 
greenhouse bomb, igniting organic matter in the soil that had lain 
dormant for centuries. This single fire released as much carbon dioxide 
into the air as the Arctic's entire tundra ecosystem, including the 
northern reaches of Canada and Russia, had absorbed in the previous 
quarter century. Scientists long considered the tundra the "most secure 
storehouse of carbon - fixed carbon, keeping it out of the atmosphere - 
that you could possibly think of," says Juday. "It was frozen - and a 
thick mat of it. We never thought a big chunk of it would burn. It's 
astounding." What's worse: Tundra fire also thins the soil layer that 
insulates permafrost, further destabilizing this terrifying reserve of 
greenhouse gases...
https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/what-megablazes-tell-us-about-the-fiery-future-of-climate-change-81547/


[Sunday: a good day to notice serious words about the future] (or is 
this just a way to sell subscriptions?)
*Global heatwave is symptom of early stage cycle of civilisational 
collapse 
<https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/global-heatwave-is-symptom-of-early-stage-cycle-of-civilisational-collapse-efef3c1dd7eb>*
Welcome to a 1C planet: the precursor of an 8C catastrophe in 82 years 
if we keep burning up fossil fuels like there's no tomorrow
Nafeez Ahmed
- - - - [clips] - - -
The extreme weather events of the summer of 2018 are not just symptoms 
of climate breakdown. They are early stage warnings of a protracted 
process of civilisational collapse as industrial societies face some of 
the opening symptoms of having already breached the limits of a safe 
climate. These events are a taste of things to come on a 
business-as-usual trajectory. They elicit a sense of how industrial 
civilisational systems are vulnerable to collapse due to escalating 
climate impacts. And they highlight the urgent necessity of communities 
everywhere undertaking steps to achieve a systemic civilisational 
transition toward post-capitalist systems which can survive and prosper 
after fossil fuels.
Climate 'doom' is already here
This summer's extreme weather has hit home some stark realities.
Climate disaster is not slated to happen in some far-flung theoretical 
future.
It's here, and now.
Droughts threatening food supplies, floods in Japan, extreme rainfall in 
the eastern US, wildfires in California, Sweden and Greece.
In the UK, holiday-makers trying to cross the Channel tunnel to France 
faced massive queues when air conditioning facilities on trains failed 
due to the heatwave. Thousands of people were stranded for five hours in 
the 30C heat without water.
In southern Laos, heavy rains led to a dam collapse, rendering thousands 
of people homeless and flooding several villages.
The stories came in thick and fast, from all over the world.
Most of the traditional media did not report these incidents as symptoms 
of an evolving climate crisis.
Some commentators did point out that the events might be linked to 
climate change.

    None at all acknowledged that these extreme weather events might be
    related to the fact that since 2015, we have essentially inhabited a
    planet that is already around 1C warmer than the pre-industrial
    average: and that therefore, we are already, based on the best
    available science, inhabiting a dangerous climate.
    The breaching of the 1C tipping point - which former NASA climate
    science chief James Hansen pinpointed as the upper limit to retain a
    safe climate - was followed this March by atmospheric carbon
    concentrations reaching, for the first time since records began, 400
    ppm (parts per million).
    Once again, the safe upper limit highlighted by Hansen and
    colleagues - 350 ppm - has already been breached.

Yet these critical climate milestones have been breached consecutively 
with barely a murmur from either the traditional and alternative media.
The recent spate of catastrophic events are not mere anomalies. They are 
the latest signifiers of a climate system that is increasingly out of 
balance - a system that was already fatally struck off balance through 
industrial overexploitation of natural resources centuries ago.
Our sense-making apparatus is broken
But for the most part, the sense-making apparatus by which we understand 
what is happening in the world - the Global Media-Industrial Complex (a 
network of media communications portals comprised of both traditional 
corporate and alternative outlets) - has failed to convey these stark 
realities to the vast majority of the human population.
We are largely unaware that 19th and early 20th century climate change 
induced by industrial fossil fuel burning has already had devastating 
impacts on the regional climate of Sub-Saharan Africa; just as it now 
continues to have escalating devastating impacts on weather systems all 
over the world.

    The reality which we are not being told is this: these are the grave
    consequences of inhabiting a planet where global average
    temperatures are roughly 1C higher than the pre-industrial norm.

Sadly, instead of confronting this fundamentally existential threat to 
the human species - one which in its fatal potential implications point 
to the bankruptcy of the prevailing paradigms of social, political and 
economic organisation (along with the ideology and value-systems 
associated with them) - the preoccupation of the Global Media-Industrial 
Complex is at worst to focus human mind and behaviour on consumerist 
trivialities.

At best, its focus is to pull us into useless, polarising left-right 
dichotomies and forms of impotent outrage that tend to distract us from 
taking transformative systemic action, internally (within and through 
our own selves, behaviours psychologies, beliefs, values, consciousness 
and spirit) and externally (in our relationships as well as our 
structural-institutional and socio-cultural contexts).
Collapse happens when the system is overwhelmed
These are the ingredients for the beginning of civilisational collapse 
processes. In each of these cases, we see how extreme weather events 
induced by climate change creates unanticipated conditions for which 
international, national and local institutions are woefully unprepared.
In order to respond, massive new expenditures are involved, including 
emergency mobilisations as well as new spending to try to build more 
robust adaptations that might be better prepared 'next time'.

But the reality is that we are already failing to avert an ongoing 
trajectory of global temperatures rising to not merely a dangerous 2C 
(imagine a doubling intensity of the sorts of events we've seen this 
summer happening year on year); but, potentially, as high as 8C (the 
catastrophic impacts of which would render much of the planet 
uninhabitable).

In these contexts, we can begin to see how a protracted collapse process 
might unfold. Such a collapse process does not in itself guarantee the 
'end of the world', or even simply the disappearance of civilisation.

What it does imply is that specific political, economic, social, 
military and other institutional systems are likely to become 
increasingly overwhelmed due to rising costs of responding to 
unpredictable and unanticipated climate wild cards.

It should be noted that as those costs are rising, we are simultaneously 
facing diminishing economic returns from our constant overexploitation 
of planetary resources, in terms of fossil fuels and other natural 
resources.

In other words, in coming decades, business-as-usual implies a future of 
tepid if not declining economic growth, amidst escalating costs of 
fossil fuel consumption, compounded by exponentially accelerating costs 
of intensifying climate impacts as they begin to erode and then pummel 
and then destroy the habitable infrastructure of industrial civilisation 
as we know it.*
**
**Collapse does not arrive in this scenario as a singular point of 
terminal completion. Rather, collapse occurs as a a series of discrete 
but consecutive and interconnected amplifying feedback processes by 
which these dynamics interact and worsen one another.*

Earth System Disruption (ESD) - the biophysical processes of climate, 
energy and ecological breakdown - increasingly lead to Human System 
Destabilisation (HSD). HSD in turn inhibits our capacity to meaningfully 
respond and adapt to the conditions of ESD. ESD, meanwhile, simply 
worsens. This, eventually, leads to further HSD. The cycle continues as 
a self-reinforcing amplifying feedback loop, and each time round the 
cycle comprises a process of collapse.
This model, which I developed in my Springer Energy Briefs study Failing 
States, Collapse Systems, demonstrates that the type of collapse we are 
likely to see occurring in coming years is a protracted, cyclical 
process that worsens with each round. It is not a final process, and it 
is not set-in-stone. At each point, the possibility of intervening at 
critical points to mitigate, ameliorate, adapt, or subvert still exists. 
But it gets harder and harder to do so effectively the deeper into the 
collapse cycle we go.
Insanity

*One primary symptom of the collapse process is that as it deepens, the 
capacity of the prevailing civilisational configuration to understand 
what is happening becomes increasingly diminished.**
****
**Far from waking up and taking action, we see that the human species is 
becoming increasingly mired in obsessing over geopolitical and economic 
competition, self-defeating acts of 'self'-preservation (where the 
'self' is completely misidentified), and focused entirely on projecting 
problems onto the 'Other'.**
****
**A key signifier of how insidious this is, is in yourself. Look to see 
how your critical preoccupations are not with yourself or those with 
which you identify; but that and those whom you oppose and consider to 
be 'wrong.'**
**At core, the critical precondition for effective action at this point 
is for each of us to radically subvert and challenge these processes 
through a combination of internal introspection and outward action.**
****
**In ourselves, the task ahead is for each of us to become the seeds of 
that new, potential civilisational form - 'another world' which is 
waiting to be birthed not through some far-flung 'revolution' in the 
future, but here and now through the transformations we undertake in 
ourselves and in our contexts.*
*
**We first wake up. We wake up to the reality of what is happening in 
the world. We then wake up to our own complicity in that reality and 
truly face up to the intricate acts of self-deception we routinely 
undertake to conceal ourselves from this complicity. We then look to 
mobilise ourselves anew to undo these threads of complicity where 
feasible, and to create new patterns of work and play that connect us 
back with the Earth and the Cosmos. And we work to connect our own 
re-patterning with the re-patterning work of others, with a view to 
plant the seed-networks of the next system - a system which is not so 
much 'next', but here and now, emergent in the fresh choices we make 
everyday.

*So… welcome. Welcome to a 1C planet. Welcome to the fight to save 
ourselves from ourselves.
Dr. Nafeez Ahmed is the founding editor of INSURGE intelligence. Nafeez 
is a 16-year investigative journalist, formerly of The Guardian where he 
reported on the geopolitics of social, economic and environmental 
crises. Nafeez reports on 'global system change' for VICE's Motherboard, 
and on regional geopolitics for Middle East Eye. He has bylines in The 
Independent on Sunday, The Independent, The Scotsman, Sydney Morning 
Herald, The Age, Foreign Policy, The Atlantic, Quartz, New York 
Observer, The New Statesman, Prospect, Le Monde diplomatique, among 
other places. He has twice won the Project Censored Award for his 
investigative reporting; twice been featured in the Evening Standard's 
top 1,000 list of most influential Londoners; and won the Naples Prize, 
Italy's most prestigious literary award created by the President of the 
Republic. Nafeez is also a widely-published and cited interdisciplinary 
academic applying complex systems analysis to ecological and political 
violence.
https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/global-heatwave-is-symptom-of-early-stage-cycle-of-civilisational-collapse-efef3c1dd7eb
This story was 100% reader-funded. Please support our independent 
journalism and share widely.


['Stay cool' is the slogan of the future]
*Human Core Body Temperature Limits Adaptability to Heat Stress 
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzscnQqCAiM>*
Paul Beckwith
Published on Aug 4, 2018
Many people think that as global temperatures and humidity rises the 
human body will physically adapt to the new conditions. FALSE. Since 
human core body temperature is 37 C (98.6 F), with skin temperature a 
few degrees lower (35 C, 95 F) when air temperature reaches 35 C and 
humidity is 100% (known as wet-bulb temperature) the body no longer 
loses heat to the environment. Even at rest, the 100 Watts of metabolic 
heat produced by an adult human thus builds up in the body, raising core 
body temperature leading to heat exhaustion, heat stroke, and death. 
Other mammals, and birds have higher core body temperatures than humans, 
and thus may fare better.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzscnQqCAiM


*This Day in Climate History - August 5, 1996 - from D.R. Tucker*
August 5, 1996: The New York Times profiles climate scientist Ben 
Santer, who had just become the target of a lavishly-financed defamation 
campaign by the fossil fuel industry.

    *Believer Finds Himself At Center of Hot Debate*
    By WILLIAM K. STEVENS
    LIVERMORE, CALIF. -- Dr. Benjamin D. Santer, a shy, even-spoken,
    41-year-old American climatologist who climbs mountains, runs
    marathons and enjoys a reputation for careful and scrupulous work,
    is the chief author of what may be the most important finding of the
    decade in atmospheric science: that human activity is probably
    causing some measure of global climate change, as environmentalists
    have long assumed and skeptics have long denied.

    The finding, issued for the first time in December 1995 by a panel
    of scientists meeting under United Nations sponsorship in Madrid,
    left open the question of just how large the human impact on climate
    is. The question is perhaps the hottest and most urgent in
    climatology today.

    Dr. Santer is in the forefront of a rapidly unfolding effort to
    answer it..

    Dr. Santer graduated with top honors in 1976 from the University of
    East Anglia in Britain with a degree in environmental sciences.

    To his dismay, his British education availed him little in the job
    market when he returned to his parents' home, then in the Baltimore
    area. He bounced around for the next few years, working at various
    times as a soccer teacher, a German teacher for Berlitz and an
    assembler in a zipper factory, at which point, he says, he found
    himself "down and out in Seattle." He made two stabs at a doctorate
    at East Anglia, abandoning both.

    He soon made a third attempt to earn a doctorate at East Anglia,
    which boasts one of the world's top climatology departments, and
    this time he succeeded.

    Dr. Benjamin D. Santer, author of a crucial chapter of a U.N.
    climate report. (Darcy Padilla for The New York Times)
    "I found it fascinating," he said, "the idea that humans could have
    a potentially large impact on climate." In his dissertation, Dr.
    Santer used statistical techniques to investigate the accuracy with
    which computerized models of the climate system simulated regional
    climates.

    He soon moved to another leading climatological laboratory, the Max
    Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, where he worked for the
    first time on the problem of detecting the signal of human-caused
    climate change, especially global warming -- the "greenhouse
    fingerprint." He also met his wife, Heike, in Hamburg, and they now
    have a 3-year-old son, Nicholas.

    Since moving to Livermore in 1992, Dr. Santer has grappled with the
    related problems of testing the validity of climate models and
    searching for the greenhouse fingerprint. His strategy is to examine
    observed patterns of temperature change to see whether they matched
    the unique patterns expected to result from the combination of
    growing industrial emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon
    dioxide, on one hand, and sulfate aerosols that cool some parts of
    the planet, on the other. According to this reasoning, the pattern
    produced by the combination of greenhouse gases and aerosols would
    be markedly different from that produced by any natural cause.

    Climate models have been widely criticized for, among other things,
    failing to adequately represent natural variability. One critic, Dr.
    Richard S. Lindzen of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
    says the models are so flawed as to be no more reliable than a Ouija
    board.

    "I think that's garbage," said Dr. Santer, part of whose job is to
    assess how good the models are. "I think models are credible tools
    and the only tools we have to define what sort of greenhouse signal
    to look for. It's clear that the ability of models to simulate
    important features of present-day climate has improved enormously."
    He says that if the models are right -- still a big if -- the human
    imprint on the climate should emerge more clearly in the next few
    years. All in all, he says, he expects "very rapid" progress in the
    search for the greenhouse fingerprint.

    When might it become clear enough to be widely convincing?

    "Even if New York were under six feet of water, there would be
    people who would still say, 'Well, this is a natural event,' " he said.

http://partners.nytimes.com/library/national/120197believe.html


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