[TheClimate.Vote] December 24, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/December 24, 2018/

[forecast for 2050]
*Winters are warming faster than summers. These US cities could lose 
weeks of freezing days by 2050.*
The dire consequences of having fewer days below freezing, explained.
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/12/20/18136006/climate-change-warmer-winters


[cascading tipping points - academic study pre-print]
*Cascading regime shifts within and across scales*
View ORCID ProfileJuan Carlos Rocha,  View ORCID ProfileGarry D 
Peterson, Orjan Bodin, Simon A Levin
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/364620
This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does 
this mean?].
AbstractInfo/HistoryMetrics Preview PDF
Abstract
Regime shifts are large, abrupt and persistent critical transitions in 
the function and structure of systems. Yet it is largely unknown how 
these transitions will interact, whether the occurrence of one will 
increase the likelihood of another, or simply correlate at distant 
places. Here we explore two types of cascading effects: domino effects 
create one-way dependencies, while hidden feedbacks produce two-way 
interactions; and compare them with the control case of driver sharing 
which can induce correlations. Using 30 regime shifts described as 
networks, we show that 45% of the pair-wise combinations of regime 
shifts present at least one plausible structural interdependence. Driver 
sharing is more common in aquatic systems, while hidden feedbacks are 
more commonly found in terrestrial and Earth systems tipping points. The 
likelihood of cascading effects depends on cross-scale interactions, but 
differs for each cascading effect type. Regime shifts should not be 
studied in isolation: instead, methods and data collection should 
account for potential teleconnections.
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/early/2018/07/07/364620/
- - -
[YouTube Paul Beckwith explains the paper 15 mins]
*Cascading Feedbacks Destabilizing Our Climate System: 2 of 2*
Paul Beckwith
Published on Dec 23, 2018
One global truth: the only constant is change. In the case of the 
climate system, this change is massive far-reaching abrupt change, 
highly nonlinear, much faster than expected, highly exponential in many 
cases, full of unexpected surprises, leaving no part of Earth untouched. 
In this video (and next) I chat on a new study that makes a stab at a) 
identifying elements in the Earth system that are changing, b) 
identifying drivers that cause these changes, and c) identifying 
feedbacks and interconnections between changing elements and processes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Jj3vFqbJoY
- - -
[Data source]
*Regime Shifts DataBase*
The Regime Shifts DataBase provides examples of different types of 
regime shifts that have been documented in social-ecological systems. 
The database focuses specifically on regime shifts that have large 
impacts on ecosystem services, and therefore on human well-being.
Large persistent changes in ecosystem services
http://regimeshifts.org/


[waters rising]
*The Marshall Islands: A nation that fears it's on the brink of extinction*
ABC News
By JASMINE BROWN, GLORIA RIVIERA, ALLIE YANG - Dec 21, 2018,
The Marshall Islands, a tiny nation of islands and atolls located 
between Hawaii and Australia, are in a fight for survival.
In a battle between man and nature, officials say climate change is 
threatening the islands' existence. The most extreme predictions say 
that rising sea levels could make the nation uninhabitable as soon as 2030.

The capital city of Majuro is only 300 feet wide in most places, yet the 
thin strip of land is home to over 27,000 people.

The Marshall Island's capital city of Majuro is only 300 feet wide in 
most places.
Charlotte Jack, one of the city's residents, lives just steps from the 
water's edge -- her front yard is the ocean. At 16 years old, she has 
grown up feeling its fury made worse by unpredictable weather.

How corn farmers are adapting to climate change
"One day it could be like…just the perfect day," she said. "Tomorrow it 
could be like pouring rain, and water is up high and it's just scary."

More than once, she said, she's been woken up by water flooding into her 
home.

ABC News' Gloria Riviera speaks with Marshall Islands resident Charlotte 
Jack, 16. She's part of what's called "the last generation" – over half 
the country's population is under the age of 24.more +
Jack is part of what's called the "last generation" -- over half the 
country's population is under the age of 24.

"Time is very limited," Jack said. "Sometimes I think that by the time I 
graduate and go get my education, try to come back and serve my island, 
there's no more island. There's no more nation. There's no more culture. 
And I'm just there, stuck on the mainland, thinking, 'What could I have 
done?'"

The ocean's waves have eroded the coastline of Majuro, reducing much of 
the land where families' homes once stood to rubble.
Earlier this fall, a United Nations report sounded the alarm about the 
dire consequences of global warming, stating that if the earth's 
temperature rises just a half-degree more, there will be longer periods 
of drought, severe heat waves and more sea level rise.

The government of the Marshall Islands has had one of the loudest voices 
on the world's stage with regard to climate change. It was instrumental 
in drafting the Paris Agreement, a landmark measure to curb carbon 
emissions and combat climate change worldwide.

Draft agreement emerges at UN climate talks, pitfalls remain
"[The Paris Agreement] came to be…really our last hope to galvanize the 
entire global community to say, 'OK enough is enough,'" The islands' 
Minister of Environment David Paul said.

The Marshall Islands' Minister of Environment David Paul stresses the 
importance of acting on climate change -- as quickly as possible.more +
The country is working to protect itself against mother nature's wrath 
by building concrete sea walls, but it remains to be seen how effective 
they will be.

"We've deployed the best engineering calculations we can deploy with the 
resources we have," Paul said. "With climate change… nothing is guaranteed."

The island of Eneko is among other smaller islands on the outer edge of 
Majuro's lagoon. Paul pointed out that the island has had a significant 
amount of land turned to beach.

"The beach is expanding, sooner or later everything will be beach rather 
than land," he said.

This pristine, unspoiled land may one day soon be lost forever.

"Land here is owned by families for hundreds of years. It's...a feeling 
of wealth for most Marshallese," explained Jack Niedenthal, an American 
expat who has spent decades advocating for the rights of the Marshallese.

Niedenthal said this is not the first time their land and their 
well-being has come under threat. During the Cold War, the United States 
used the Bikini atoll as a strategic military position and a testing 
ground for nuclear weapons.

"What the U.S. did out here was horrendous. I mean there's no other way 
to describe it," Niedenthal said. "The one weapon that did most of the 
damage to the northern marshlands was called the 'Bravo Shot,' and that 
was 1,000 times greater than the weapons that were used on Hiroshima and 
Nagasaki."

The nuclear fallout from that bomb was so wide, ash rained down on the 
outer atolls. For years, residents from there have suffered from birth 
defects and high rates of cancer. They had to be evacuated from their homes.

Today, more than 50 years later, their land is still contaminated by 
radiation.

"They've sacrificed both land and health," Niedenthal said.

As a small reparation for their suffering, the Marshallese are allowed 
to live and work in the United States without a visa. Over a third of 
the population has already left, seeking opportunity in the U.S. Soon, 
the more than 70,000 left behind may have no other choice than to also 
flee to the U.S.

In June 2017, President Donald Trump delivered another crushing blow to 
the islands with the announcement that the U.S. will withdraw from the 
Paris climate accord.

"The United States government…let us down," Paul said. "This is…life and 
death for us. It's really a death sentence."

The U.S. is responsible for one of the world's largest carbon 
footprints, but it's some of the smallest nations that are most affected 
by their giant neighbors to the north.

Climate change, "for us, it's...really a daily reality," Paul said. "We 
are seeing our shoreline being eroded, we are experiencing longer 
drought, more frequent...It's quite challenging to try to cope with it."

As sea levels continue to rise, they will also threaten to destroy the 
islands' freshwater aquifers and could kill vegetation.

In combating climate change, "we always say this: we may go first, but 
you're next," Paul said, referring to the fact that the rest of the 
world should take the island nation's concerns seriously.

Despite the bleak outlook, the Marshallese are not ready to give up just 
yet.

"I want to be the last guy to leave," Niedenthal said. "I'm going to be 
the guy…floating out on a kayak…when everyone else is gone."

Three generations of Niedenthal's family now live on Majuro.

"You know, you hear a lot of people talking about all of these new 
emission things in by 2050, and I don't know if we have until 2030," he 
said. "When it becomes in other people's backyard and not just ours, my 
hope is that they will start trying to do things."

It's clear that this is a battle that the Marshallese cannot win alone, 
Jack said.

"Come help us," Jack said. "We need help."
This report was supported in part by the IWMF's Howard G. Buffett Fund 
for Women Journalists.
https://abcnews.go.com/International/marshall-islands-nation-fears-brink-extinction/story?id=59941977


[Climate Litigation - video from COP24]
*Dan Galpern & Sarah Mead - Suing the Bad Actors*
UPFSI
Published on Dec 21, 2018
http://ScientistsWarning.TV/ - On today's program we have with us 
attorneys Dan Galpern and Sarah Mead over-viewing for us the 
opportunities for taking action on climate change by bringing both 
corporations and governments to court.  Please share this program with 
any attorneys you know, especially the ones who have children. They 
would be the most likely to take such legal actions since it is their 
children's world that is being stolen from them by a destructive 
alliance of politics and money.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZhsrJIkfDM


*This Day in Climate History - December 24 1988, - from D.R. Tucker*
December 24, 1988: TIME Magazine names "Endangered Earth" its "Planet of 
the Year" for 1988, citing in part rising concerns over global warming.
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/28176/TIME-MAGAZINE-PICKS-EARTH-IN-LIEU-OF-MAN-OF-THE-YEAR.html
http://content.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,19890102,00.html
/-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------/

/Archive of Daily Global Warming News 
<https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote/2017-October/date.html> 
/
https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote

/To receive daily mailings - click to Subscribe 
<mailto:subscribe at theClimate.Vote?subject=Click%20SEND%20to%20process%20your%20request> 
to news digest./

*** Privacy and Security:*This is a text-only mailing that carries no 
images which may originate from remote servers. Text-only messages 
provide greater privacy to the receiver and sender.
By regulation, the .VOTE top-level domain must be used for democratic 
and election purposes and cannot be used for commercial purposes.
To subscribe, email: contact at theclimate.vote 
<mailto:contact at theclimate.vote> with subject subscribe, To Unsubscribe, 
subject: unsubscribe
Also you may subscribe/unsubscribe at 
https://pairlist10.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/theclimate.vote
Links and headlines assembled and curated by Richard Pauli for 
http://TheClimate.Vote <http://TheClimate.Vote/> delivering succinct 
information for citizens and responsible governments of all levels. List 
membership is confidential and records are scrupulously restricted to 
this mailing list.