[TheClimate.Vote] February 27, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/February 27, 2018/

[Weathering Changing Climate]
*'Wacky' weather makes Arctic warmer than parts of Europe 
<https://in.reuters.com/article/us-europe-weather/wacky-weather-makes-arctic-warmer-than-parts-of-europe-idINKCN1GA2AD>*
On the northern tip of Greenland, the Cape Morris Jesup meteorological 
site has had a record-smashing 61 hours of temperatures above freezing 
so far in 2018, linked to a rare retreat of sea ice in the Arctic winter 
darkness.
"It's never been this extreme," said Ruth Mottram, a climate scientist 
at the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). Warmth was coming into the 
Arctic both up from the Atlantic and through the Bering Strait, driving 
and cold air south.
Around the entire Arctic region, temperatures are now about 20C (36 
degrees F) above normal, at minus eight degrees Celsius (17.6 degrees 
F), according to DMI calculations...
"What we once considered to be anomalies are becoming the new normal. 
Our climate is changing right in front of our eyes, and we've only got a 
short amount of time to stop this from getting significantly worse," he 
told Reuters...
https://in.reuters.com/article/us-europe-weather/wacky-weather-makes-arctic-warmer-than-parts-of-europe-idINKCN1GA2AD
-
*Freakishly warm air has again surged over the North Pole, and sea ice 
is breaking up north of Greenland — in winter 
<http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/2018/02/26/freakishly-warm-air-has-again-surged-over-the-north-pole/>*
Any sort of large opening in the sea ice north of Greenland is abnormal. 
This is where thick, old sea ice once dominated. And even at the end of 
summer in September, this area is normally ice-covered.
"This has me more worried than the warm temps in the Arctic right now," 
says Mike MacFerrin, a University of Colorado scientist specializing in 
ice sheets. "That sea ice north of Greenland [is] among the last 
vestiges of old, thick sea ice existing in the Arctic ocean. Break it 
apart, it can circulate straight out into the Atlantic come summer. 
We'll see what comes," he wrote in a Tweet 
<https://twitter.com/IceSheetMike/status/968152228212232192>this morning.
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/2018/02/26/freakishly-warm-air-has-again-surged-over-the-north-pole/


*Antarctica's king penguins 'could disappear' by the end of the century 
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/26/antarcticas-king-penguins-could-disappear-by-the-end-of-the-century>*
Rising temperatures and overfishing in the pristine waters around the 
Antarctic could see king penguin populations pushed to the brink of 
extinction by the end of the century, according to a new study...
The report, published in the journal Nature Climate Change 
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0084-2>, found that as 
global warming transforms the environment in the world's last great 
wilderness 70% of king penguins could either disappear or be forced to 
find new breeding grounds...
And as the distance between their breeding grounds and their food grows, 
scientists predict entire colonies will be wiped out.
Le Bohec, who led the study with Robin Cristofari from the Centre 
Scientifique de Monaco and Emiliano Trucchi from the University of 
Ferrara in Italy, said the plight of the king penguin should serve as a 
warning about the future of the entire marine environment in the 
Antarctic...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/26/antarcticas-king-penguins-could-disappear-by-the-end-of-the-century


[Poll care]
*Poll: Millennials care about climate change 
<https://www.axios.com/poll-millennials-care-about-climate-change-1519649123-0c3a4634-dd7b-4e12-a1a2-19fca93aa3b7.html>*
The nonprofit Alliance for Market Solutions released new polling on 
millennial attitudes about the reality of human-induced climate change 
and efforts to combat it...
The bottom line: Millennials are broadly convinced human-induced climate 
change is real and deserves action, but millennial Republicans are 
relatively less concerned...
- Slightly over three-fourths of millennials agree that humans should 
take steps to slow or stop climate change.
- Majorities of varying degrees of Democrats, independents and 
Republicans want action (see chart above).
62% of millennials say the climate is changing due to human activity, 
though under half of the young Republicans polled said this comes 
closest to their view. (Note: The consensus view among scientists 
<https://science2017.globalchange.gov/> is that human activities are the 
primary driver of rising temperatures.)
- Almost 70% of millennials say climate change will either seriously or 
somewhat affect them in their lifetimes.
- A slim majority (51%) of young Republicans are concerned about climate 
change, while 61% are concerned about air pollution.
https://www.axios.com/poll-millennials-care-about-climate-change-1519649123-0c3a4634-dd7b-4e12-a1a2-19fca93aa3b7.html


[USAToday]
*Global warming prompts Norway to strengthen its doomsday seed vault 
<https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2018/02/26/global-warming-prompts-norway-strengthen-its-doomsday-seed-vault/372274002/>*
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2018/02/26/global-warming-prompts-norway-strengthen-its-doomsday-seed-vault/372274002/
-
[Crop Trust - Interactive Visit]
Svalbard Global Seed Vault - Crop Trust 
<https://www.croptrust.org/our-work/svalbard-global-seed-vault/>
Deep inside a mountain on a remote island in the Svalbard archipelago, 
halfway between mainland Norway and the North Pole, lies the Global Seed 
Vault.
It is a long-term seed storage facility, built to stand the test of time 
— and the challenge of natural or man-made disasters. The Seed Vault 
represents the world's largest collection of crop diversity.
*Interactive Visit 
<https://www.croptrust.org/our-work/svalbard-global-seed-vault/interactive-visit/>*
OUTSIDE THE VAULT The seeds arrive to the Seed Vault amidst an October 
blizzard.
THE ENTRANCE HALL The seeds enter the entrance hall on the Seed Vault's 
trolley.
THE TUNNEL The seeds are brought down through the 100 meter long tunnel.
THE MAIN CHAMBER In the Main Chamber, the seeds are labelled.
THE VAULT The seeds are placed on the shelves in the vault room.
https://www.croptrust.org/our-work/svalbard-global-seed-vault/interactive-visit/
https://www.croptrust.org/our-work/svalbard-global-seed-vault/


[mass mortality event (MME)]
*The terrifying phenomenon that is pushing species towards extinction 
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/25/mass-mortality-events-animal-conservation-climate-change>*
Scientists are alarmed by a rise in mass mortality events – when species 
die in their thousands. Is it all down to climate change?
The scientists on the ground pinpointed blood poisoning as the cause, 
but were puzzled as to why whole herds were dying so quickly. After 32 
postmortems, they concluded the culprit was the bacterium Pasteurella 
multocida, which they believe normally lives harmlessly in the tonsils 
of some, if not all, of the antelopes. In a research paper published in 
January in Science Advances, Kock and colleagues contrasted the 2015 MME 
with the two from the 1980s. They concluded that a rise in temperature 
to 37C and an increase in humidity above 80% in the previous few days 
had stimulated the bacteria to pass into the bloodstream where it caused 
haemorrhagic septicaemia, or blood poisoning...
The weather link raises the spectre of climate change. Just as it is 
rarely wise to link a single extreme weather event – whether it's the 
Australian heatwave, last summer's Hurricane Harvey or this winter's 
North American cold snap – to climate change, it is equally difficult to 
blame an MME on global warming. But what can be said with confidence is 
that the sorts of extreme weather events linked to MMEs – such as the 
temperature and humidity rise that nearly wiped out the saiga – will 
become more frequent...
"The tragedy is, we will probably see more events like the event that 
affected the saiga," he says. "Evolution takes millions of years and if 
we have a shift in environmental conditions, everything that's evolved 
in that particular environment is under different pressures. Microbes 
adapt and can respond to changes quickly, but mammals take hundreds of 
thousands of years or millions of years to adapt. That's the real worry."
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/25/mass-mortality-events-animal-conservation-climate-change


*Women at the front can help defeat global warming, say leaders 
<https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-women-cities/women-at-the-front-can-help-defeat-global-warming-say-leaders-idUSKCN1GB04Y>*
MEXICO CITY (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Cities will be the 
battleground and women can be effective warriors on the frontlines in 
the fight against climate change, activists and leaders said on Monday.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-women-cities/women-at-the-front-can-help-defeat-global-warming-say-leaders-idUSKCN1GB04Y


[Duty to defend the future]
*Release: A Responsibility to Prepare – Military and National Security 
Leaders Release New Reports on Climate Change <https://wp.me/p1t6fZ-42D>*
by Caitlin Werrell and Francesco Femia
Washington, DC – On Capitol Hill today, two nonpartisan groups of senior 
military and national security experts facilitated by the Center for 
Climate and Security <https://climateandsecurity.org> (CCS) released 
reports identifying rapidly-growing risks to national security due to 
climate change, and urging the U.S. government to take those risks 
seriously (click here <http://www.eesi.org/livecast> for a livestream of 
the release event, beginning at 9:30am EST). The reports include the 2nd 
Edition of CCS's Military Expert Panel Report: Sea Level Rise and the 
U.S. Military's Mission 
<http://www.climateandsecurity.org/militaryexpertpanel2018> and the 
Climate and Security Advisory Group's Roadmap and Recommendations for 
the U.S. Government 
<http://www.climateandsecurity.org/csagrecommendations2018> which 
outlines a "Responsibility to Prepare 
<http://www.climateandsecurity.org/csagrecommendations2018>" framework 
for the U.S. government. Read more of this post 
<http://climateandsecurity.org/2018/02/26/release-a-responsibility-to-prepare-military-and-national-security-leaders-release-new-reports-on-climate-change-and-what-to-do-about-it/#more-15539>
https://wp.me/p1t6fZ-42D


[http://www.fews.net/]
*Conflict and poor rainfall impact household food access as assistance 
needs persist*
Acute Food Insecurity: Near Term (January 2018) 
<http://www.fews.net/?utm_source=FEWS+NET+Daily+Digest&utm_campaign=15a16924a7-Video_Presentation_july_FAOB_2017&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_02ee344349-15a16924a7-95463409>
Looking forward seven months, August marks the end of the lean season in 
Central America and the Caribbean, where typical levels of needs are 
expected. However, West Africa will be moving towards the end of the 
pastoral lean season and beginning of the agricultural lean season. A 
high magnitude of needs continues in DRC, South Sudan, Sudan, Yemen, 
Nigeria, Somalia, Afghanistan, and Ethiopia.
Watch our February Food Assistance Outlook Video 
<https://fews.us6.list-manage.com/track/click?u=c596c85ad4fda9a2686b18c7a&id=25ed8c2e67&e=c9b2c73449> 
for more detailed food security projections.
  You can also read the FOOD ASSISTANCE OUTLOOK BRIEF PROJECTED FOOD 
ASSISTANCE NEEDS FOR AUGUST 2018 
<https://fews.us6.list-manage.com/track/click?u=c596c85ad4fda9a2686b18c7a&id=db2dbb3593&e=c9b2c73449>
http://www.fews.net/?utm_source=FEWS+NET+Daily+Digest&utm_campaign=15a16924a7-Video_Presentation_july_FAOB_2017&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_02ee344349-15a16924a7-95463409


[Peter Sinclair]
*Coming Climate Caucus Could Consist of Conservatives 
<https://climatecrocks.com/2018/02/27/coming-climate-caucus-could-consist-of-conservatives/>*
February 27, 2018
Recent polling by Yale University and George Mason University found that 
conservative Republican support for the idea that climate change is real 
has fallen 13 points since 2008, to 37 percent. However, 63 percent of 
liberal-to-moderate Republicans agreed global warming is happening. In 
comparison, 67 percent of moderate-to-conservative Democrats felt that 
way, along with 97 percent of liberal Democrats.
video ***Climate 'Skeptic' Flips, Now Backs Action 
<https://youtu.be/1cbey_bxI2U>*
YaleClimateConnections
Published on Feb 20, 2018
Jerry Taylor for more than two decades was a leading spokesperson 
against concerns expressed by the climate science community and, 
accordingly, against taking action on greenhouse gases. All that has 
changed. He's broken with hard-line previous employers seen as climate 
contrarians. After doing his own
'due diligence' research, Taylor now fully endorses the climate science 
'consensus' embraced by climatologists. What's more, he supports taking 
strong action to reduce global warming, consistent with his commitment 
to market-based approaches. A talented messenger, Taylor, head of the 
Niskanen Center in Washington, D.C., carries a big rhetorical stick in 
urging strong policies on climate change. https://youtu.be/1cbey_bxI2U
-
*Richard Alley on Being a Republican Climate Scientist 
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tMeqjbA94I>*
Dr. Richard Alley on the frustrations of a conservative climate scientist.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tMeqjbA94I
-
*Jerry Taylor: Busting Republicans out of Climate Denial Prison 
<https://youtu.be/fCR0RLfuLT4>*
https://youtu.be/fCR0RLfuLT4
https://climatecrocks.com/2018/02/27/coming-climate-caucus-could-consist-of-conservatives/


[2015 video]
Worth Comparing on Climate Attitudes – Pope to Pruitt 
<https://wp.me/pOYWd-dBL>
by greenman3610
*video Brother Sun, Sister Moon: Pope Francis and the Meaning of Climate 
Action <https://youtu.be/GqF2vujwfQk>*
In anticipating Pope Francis' encyclical on climate change, catholics, 
protestants, scientists, and lay people discuss the ethics and spiritual 
meaning of climate action.
https://youtu.be/GqF2vujwfQk
I produced the above just before the publication of the Pope's 
encyclical on climate. It still holds up. Apologies for bad sound a 
couple places.
https://wp.me/pOYWd-dBL


[repetition?]
*Analysis: BP significantly upgrades its global outlook for wind and 
solar – again 
<https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-bp-significantly-upgrades-global-outlook-wind-solar-again>*
BP, the oil and gas major, has significantly increased its global 
outlook for wind and solar energy.
The main scenario in the company's latest annual "Energy Outlook", 
released yesterday, shows renewables rising four-fold to 2,000 million 
tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) by 2035. This is an upwards revision of 
around 400Mtoe compared to last year's main forecast.
The projections also show, for the first time, global oil demand peaking 
by 2040. Oil remains the world's largest fuel source, however.
This 2018 edition of BP's outlook also projects coal will peak before 
2030, an even earlier projection than it gave last year...
BP's report focuses on its new "evolving transition" scenario, which 
replaces its "base case" scenario from previous years (see more on this 
below). However, it no longer says this is the "most likely" future 
scenario.
In this new projection, rising energy demand over the next 20 years is 
driven by fast-growing developing economies, with China and India 
accounting for half of the growth...
It is worth a cursory note to emphasise that none of the scenarios in 
the energy outlook are predictions. Instead, they are modelled scenarios 
based on a range of different inputs. As BP puts it:

    "These scenarios are not predictions of what is likely to happen or
    what BP would like to happen. Rather, they explore the possible
    implications of different judgements and assumptions by considering
    a series of "what if" experiments."

As Carbon Brief's comparisons of earlier outlooks shows, BP has 
repeatedly underestimated the rise of renewables, as well as 
overestimating the demand for coal....
This year, BP has scrapped this "base case" and instead uses what it 
calls the "evolving transition" scenario as its reference scenario (red 
in the chart above). The new report stresses that this "does not imply 
that the probability of this scenario is higher than the others"...
The evolving transition scenario assumes that government policies, 
technology and social preferences continue to evolve "in a manner and 
speed seen over the recent past". World GDP more than doubles by 2040, 
driven by increasing prosperity in fast-growing emerging economies...
This remains one of its highest emission scenarios, with carbon 
emissions increasing over 10% by 2040. BP notes that carbon emissions in 
this scenario are not consistent with achieving the Paris Agreement 
goals. This highlights "the need for a more decisive break from the 
past", it says...
The CO2 emissions resulting from BP's evolving transition scenario are 
shown in the graph below in orange. Note that projections go up to 2040 
for the first time, rather than 2035 as in recent years....
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-bp-significantly-upgrades-global-outlook-wind-solar-again


[Data
*More ice-out and skating day data sets 
<http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/02/more-ice-out-and-skating-day-data-sets/>*
Filed under: Climate impacts Climate Science Instrumental Record — gavin 
@ 26 February 2018
The responses to the last post on the Rideau Canal Skateway 
<http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/02/rideau-canal-skateway/> 
season changes were interesting, and led to a few pointers to additional 
data sets that show similar trends and some rather odd counter-points 
from the usual suspects.
Minnesotan Lakes
The most comprehensive (and up-to-date) set of "ice out" data for lakes 
is, unsurprisingly perhaps, from the Dept. of Natural Resources in 
Minnesota. <http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/ice_out/index.html> Data 
(sometimes patchy) goes back in places to the 19th Century. The earliest 
data is for Lake Pepin starting in 1843. By 1900, there are a further 6 
lakes with data: Clear, Christmas, Minnetonka, Osakis, Sagatagan, and 
Shields...
One commentator on twitter made a point of picking out Lake Minnetonka, 
and noting that the earliest ice out date on record was in 1878, as if 
that negated any of the long term trends there or elsewhere. It is 
however quite interesting to look into data from that year. Pepin, 
Osakis and Clear had huge anomalies that year, and estimates of regional 
temperature <http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/regions/minnesota> show a very 
warm winter that has only recently been matched. Given the standard 
deviation in the residuals (about 10 days), the 30+ day earlier ice out 
was a massive anomaly (more than 3\sigma) and was noticed and commented 
on at the time. Contemporary reports from Minneapolis described it the 
"Year without a Winter". 
<http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/1877_1878_winter.html> But 
one warm winter does not a trend make, and the trends in almost all the 
lakes are clearly towards an earlier ice out over the last 40 years. 
Given the interannual variability though, you still need a multiple 
decades to significantly detect a trend of 10 days or so per century...
Other North American lakes...
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/02/more-ice-out-and-skating-day-data-sets/


*Kiwi creatives invent Donald Trump ice cubes to help fight global 
warming 
<https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/food-wine/food-news/101664851/kiwi-creatives-create-donald-trump-ice-cubes-to-help-fight-global-warming>*
Polkinghorne said they hoped to raise at least £20,000 (NZ $38,000) by 
selling 5000 of the Trump Trays, which could be pre-ordered through 
Crowdfunder.
The idea came following Trump's decision to pull out of the Paris 
agreement. "That was a big one for us. We thought, well, we can't sway 
the mind of that man, but we can make a point," Polkinghorne said.
"What we liked about it was that we were giving such a practical product 
for such an absurd, horrible thing: climate change.
"There's something lovely about the fact you can't really argue with 
science: ice melts. There's that element," he said.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/food-wine/food-news/101664851/kiwi-creatives-create-donald-trump-ice-cubes-to-help-fight-global-warming


*This Day in Climate History February 27, 2009 
<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUdgQXOwCLQ>  -  from D.R. Tucker*
February 27, 2009: MSNBC's Keith Olbermann leaves some clean coal in
Fox News Channel host Glenn Beck's stocking:

    "The runner-up, Glenn Beck.  We all laughed the first time he attacked
    the carbon capture projects in the stimulus package, branding them
    'earmarks,' and saying, 'I don‘t even know what the hell that is.'
    But he's done it again, derisively saying: 'The spending bill, 'clean'
    of earmarks, has $800 million for carbon capture projects.'

    "Glenn, carbon capture projects...that‘s clean coal technology. Last
    June, you claimed that Democrats, 'controlled by the radical
    environmental special interest groups,' were blocking clean coal
    technology.  You support clean coal technology, nit wit!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUdgQXOwCLQ

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