[TheClimate.Vote] January 1, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Mon Jan 1 09:50:54 EST 2018
/January 1, 2018/
[discuss]
*Is Climate Change Too Scary? How Best to Talk About It
<https://www.care2.com/causes/is-climate-change-too-scary-how-best-to-talk-about-it.html>*
Just thinking about climate change can be pretty overwhelming. We're
currently on a terrible trajectory and it's hard not to feel despair for
the future given all that we know.
Even some scientists, who damned well understand the consequences we
face, have cautioned against talking about climate change with too much
alarm. Their fear is that people can only handle so much bad news and
they're liable to shut it out if they feel helpless to act.
Amidst new research, that school of thought is receiving a serious
challenge. Environmental psychologists Daniel Chapman, Brian Lickel and
Ezra Markowitz from the University of Massachusetts-Amherst conducted a
study in which they determined that people can probably handle the
reality and magnitude of climate change a lot better than experts are
willing to give them credit for.
The study, "Reassessing Emotion in Climate Change Communication,"
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0021-9?WT.feed_name=subjects_scientific-community-and-society>
looks at whether or not certain emotions trigger certain reactions. From
their research, the team concluded that it's an oversimplification to
say that fear cannot be a motivating factor. Emotions and people are
complex, and there's no reason to suggest that saying too much about
global warming is liable to push them away.
There are ways to maximize the impact of having a conversation about
climate change, however. In an interview with Bloomberg, Chapman shared
a few additional takeaways from his research:
*SHOOT IT TO 'EM STRAIGHT, BUT DON'T LEAVE OUT THE ACTION*
While it's understandable why giving lots of information about climate
change would be perceived as pessimistic, that doesn't mean the message
has to be entirely a downer. In fact, Chapman thinks it's best to follow
up these details with suggestions on how to counter the devastation with
action.
Presumably, when we're talking about climate change, we're hoping to
build a community of people willing to take action, not just depress
them. So explore both avenues in your conversations.
*FOCUS LOCALLY*
It's called global warming because it affects the entire planet but that
can be too large and abstract for people to comprehend. People are more
likely to take the message to heart and act accordingly when they have a
better understanding of the consequences that will and are impacting
their immediate communities.
Local environmental examples, as well as local solutions, will go a long
way toward leaving people motivated rather than just overcome with fear.
*MINIMIZE THE AGENDA AND SPEAK HONESTLY*
People don't respond well to being pitched a perspective, so even though
it's important to get more people concerned about climate change, you
don't want to make it obvious that you're trying to make an
environmentalist out of them.
In a world of polarized news sources, that may seem counterintuitive,
but Chapman insists that most people still prefer unbiased, balanced
sources. Stick to the facts and the consequences and people will use
that information they deem trustworthy to inform their own opinions
moving forward.
https://www.care2.com/causes/is-climate-change-too-scary-how-best-to-talk-about-it.html
-
[Nature]
*Reassessing emotion in climate change communication
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0021-9?WT.feed_name=subjects_scientific-community-and-society>*
Daniel A. Chapman, Brian Lickel & Ezra M. Markowitz
Debate over effective climate change communication must be grounded in
rigorous affective science. Rather than treating emotions as simple
levers to be pulled to promote desired outcomes, emotions should be
viewed as one integral component of a cognitive feedback system guiding
responses to challenging decision-making problems.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0021-9?WT.feed_name=subjects_scientific-community-and-society
[Video Moody's]
*Preparing for climate change: Maine coastal communities adapt or face a
credit downgrade
<http://www.wcsh6.com/news/local/preparing-for-climate-change-maine-coastal-communities-adapt-or-face-a-credit-downgrade/503518991>*
PORTLAND, Maine (NEWS CENTER) -- One of the largest credit rating
agencies is issued a warning to coastal communities. In the Moody's
Investor Service report it calls on communities around the nation, and
in Maine to start adapting for climate change or local governments could
see a financial impact.
Moody's is one of the largest credit rating agencies. The report issued
last month says "the growing effects of climate change, including
climbing global temperatures, and rising sea levels, are forecast to
have an increasing economic impact on US state and local issuers."
Maine coastal communities see a large portion of their tourism dollars
from its beaches. Jonathon Carter, the town manager of Wells, Maine,
said his community has prepared for sea level rise since 2012.
"All of it, for a fairly small staffed community is fairly
overwhelming," said Carter. "The damage we are seeing is from the surges
from the storms. Whether you call it climate change or sea rise, we are
seeing more and more storm surges. That is the culprit."
In the report, Moody's cites climate change and its effects when issuing
credit, "...even if this is a number of years in the future."
The town of Wells is valued at $3.2 billion. Carter says two-thirds of
that is Route 1 to the coast.
Michael Livingston, an engineer with the town of Wells, said protecting
the beach barrier system is already underway.
"We look at each road individually. The drainage that passes under the
roads and the impact of storm surge to those roads," mentioned
Livingston. "We have had a couple of occasions where we have asked
evacuations of the areas because there would be no access to them."
Video
http://www.wcsh6.com/news/local/preparing-for-climate-change-maine-coastal-communities-adapt-or-face-a-credit-downgrade/503518991
Wells just finalized a $250,000 culvert upgrade project on Furbish Road,
according to the town manager. "It's ten times bigger than the other
culvert systems and it's raised up. It will help prevent the road from
flooding."
The Gulf of Maine Research Institute is working with the cities of South
Portland and Portland to develop community engagement tools. It helps
citizens better understand sea level rise, storm surge, increased
precipitation and the flooding impacts on coastal communities.
As we lose property we lose tax income that comes from those
properties," said Gayle Bowness, the program manager at the Gulf of
Maine Research Institute. "We really need to think about adaptation. How
can we best adapt to keep the water out of areas or to let the water
come in naturally and not be disruptive to daily patterns?"
Bowness added that in an extreme scenario, models predict our sea levels
rising by almost 11 feet in Portland, Maine by the year 2100.
Maine is lagging behind other states with beach protection preservation,
such as dune protection systems and growth of erosion areas by with
offshore work, according to Carter. "We can't keep up with mother nature."
Moody's report did not mention when the downgrades are potentially
happening.
http://www.wcsh6.com/news/local/preparing-for-climate-change-maine-coastal-communities-adapt-or-face-a-credit-downgrade/503518991
-
[NPR audio]
*Credit Rating Agency Issues Warning On Climate Change To Cities
<https://www.npr.org/2017/12/01/567843604/credit-rating-agency-issues-warning-on-climate-change-to-cities>*
One of the largest credit rating agencies in the country is warning U.S.
cities and states to prepare for the effects of climate change or risk
being downgraded.
In a new report, Moody's Investor Services Inc. explains how it assesses
the credit risks to a city or state that's being impacted by climate
change — whether that impact be a short-term "climate shock" like a
wildfire, hurricane or drought, or a longer-term "incremental climate
trend" like rising sea levels or increased temperatures.
Also taken into consideration: "[communities] preparedness for such
shocks and their activities in respect of adapting to climate trends,"
the report says.
"If you have a place that simply throws up its hands in the face of
changes to climate trends, then we have to sort of evaluate it on an
ongoing basis to see how that abdication of response actually translates
to changes in its credit profile," says Michael Wertz, a Moody's vice
president.
https://www.npr.org/2017/12/01/567843604/credit-rating-agency-issues-warning-on-climate-change-to-cities
-
*Climate Change & Sovereign Credit Risk - Moody's
<https://www.moodys.com%2Fsites%2Fproducts%2FProductAttachments%2FClimate_trends_infographic_moodys.pdf%3FWT.z_referringsource%3DTB%7EESGhub%7Eclimatetrends&usg=AOvVaw1S2zwdsTLivU39g_bUeXG->*
Our sovereign bond methodology captures the effects of physical climate
change in a broad set of rating factors that influence a sovereign's
ability and willingness to repay its debt. This infographic is an
overview of the indicators that highlight the potential credit impact
and relative susceptibility of rated sovereigns to climate ...
PDF:
https://www.moodys.com/sites/products/ProductAttachments/Climate_trends_infographic_moodys.pdf
[migration]
*Climate Change Drives Mexican Migration to US: Study
<https://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Climate-Change-Drives-Mexican-Migration-to-US-Study-20171230-0020.html>*
Climate change forces will influence some 41,000 people to migrant to
the United States over the next 50 years.
Several studies indicate that climate change is becoming a significant
driver in migration from Mexico to the United States.
A recent University of California Davis study indicates that climate
change forces will influence some 41,000 people to migrate to the United
States over the next 50 years.
Michael Oppenheimer, the author of a 2010 study about climate and
migration, projects that some 6.7 million people could arrive to the
U.S. from Mexico as a result of global warming by 2080.
Both conclude that as global temperatures rise and precipitation
patterns change, arid regions, particularly like those in northern and
southern Mexico, will become more drought prone, making it difficult for
farmers to yield a crop and forcing them to move north.
Oppenheimer, also a professor at Princeton University, admits that many
factors contribute to a person's decision to move, but that climate
change oftens plays a strong role. He said that high temperatures and
reduced rainfall — signs of climate change — have influenced people from
Mexico to relocate in the U.S. in the past due to their subsequent
reduction of food and income in their home country.
"More hot days in rural Mexico, predicted by the major climate models,
will increase migration out of rural Mexico, including to the U.S.,"
said Ed Taylor, a development economist at the University of California
at Davis and co-author of the 2016 migration study.
https://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Climate-Change-Drives-Mexican-Migration-to-US-Study-20171230-0020.html
[interview]
*Camille Parmesan: 'Trump's extremism on climate change has brought
people together'
<https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/dec/31/camille-parmesan-trump-extremism-climate-change-interview>*
The climate scientist on leaving the US to work in France – with funding
from President Macron – and why she believes Trump's decision to pull
out of the Paris agreement will backfire on him
*Are you surprised?*
I am shocked at the ubiquitousness of climate change. We are seeing
change in every country and every ocean. That is what surprises
biologists. All regions studied are being impacted. Every group of
animal and plant, from the oak tree to birds, is being impacted. All
groups are showing change. We would expect to find some regions or
groups which are stable, but to date we are not. We are seeing change
happen much faster than I thought it would 10 years ago.
*What is the present state of climate science?*
The science of climate change, and its impacts, is at a very strong
place. Conclusions that were tentative 15-20 years ago have been firmed
up and are now well supported. Numbers that used to be presented as
rough estimates are now being given with high confidence and low error.
So our conclusions are being stated with higher and higher confidence,
and stronger wording, because all of the research we've been doing has
backed up nearly all of the trends and patterns we saw many years ago.
We are now sure of what we only suspected many years ago. This is great
news for the public and policymakers, because it gives them the support
to take strong action. Policy needs to catch up with science.
*When do you expect the major impacts to take place?*
Things will shift to the extremely negative in the next 50 years.
Climate scientists are doing decadal projects and it starts really
shifting about 2070-2090. That is in my children's lifetimes. They will
have to deal with it. That's what makes me angry. Policymakers are
mostly in their 50s and they will be dead by then. The worst impacts
will hit their grandchildren. That's what annoys me about young people
not voting. They will be the most severely impacted.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/dec/31/camille-parmesan-trump-extremism-climate-change-interview
[media manipulation]
*HOW CLIMATE CHANGE DENIERS RISE TO THE TOP IN GOOGLE SEARCHES...
<http://www.joboneforhumanity.org/how_climate_change_deniers_rise_to_the_top_in_google_searcheshttp://www.joboneforhumanity.org/how_climate_change_deniers_rise_to_the_top_in_google_searches>*
Posted by David Pike 27sc on December 30, 2017
Groups that reject established climate science can use the search
engine's advertising business to their advantage, gaming the system to
find a mass platform for false or misleading claims...
Type the words "climate change" into Google and you could get an
unexpected result: advertisements that call global warming a hoax.
"Scientists blast climate alarm," said one that appeared at the top of
the search results page during a recent search, pointing to a website,
DefyCCC, that asserted: "Nothing has been studied better and found more
harmless than anthropogenic CO2 release."
Another ad proclaimed: "The Global Warming Hoax — Why the Science Isn't
Settled," linking to a video containing unsupported assertions,
including that there is no correlation between rising levels of
greenhouse gases and higher global temperatures.
(In reality, the harmful effects of carbon dioxide emissions linked to
human activity, like rising temperatures and melting sea ice, have been
acknowledged by every major scientific organization in the world.)
Google's search page has become an especially contentious battleground
between those who seek to educate the public on the established climate
science and those who reject it.
Not everyone who uses Google will see climate denial ads in their search
results. Google's algorithms use search history and other data to tailor
ads to the individual, something that is helping to create a highly
partisan internet.
A recent search for "climate change" or "global warming" from a Google
account linked to a New York Times climate reporter did not return any
denial ads. The top results were ads from environmental groups like the
Natural Resources Defense Council and the Environmental Defense Fund.
But when the same reporter searched for those terms using private
browsing mode, which helps mask identity information from Google's
algorithms, the ad for DefyCCC popped up.
"These are the info wars," said Robert J. Brulle, a Drexel University
professor of sociology and environmental science who has studied climate
advocacy and misinformation. "It's becoming harder and harder for the
individual to find unbiased information that they can trust, because
there's so much other material trying to crowd that space."
The climate denialist ads are an example of how contrarian groups can
use the internet's largest automated advertising systems to their
advantage, gaming the system to find a mass platform for false or
misleading claims.
The climate denial ads on Google come amid a wider effort — backed by
wealthy conservatives, fossil fuel companies and right-wing think tanks
— to discredit the prevailing science on global warming and to prevent
action.
DefyCCC, the site that recently bought the "climate change" search term
on Google, devotes an entire section of its site to content from
WattsUpWithThat, a well-known climate denial site by the blogger Anthony
Watts. Mr. Watts has received funding from the Heartland Institute,
backed by the billionaire Koch brothers.
http://www.joboneforhumanity.org/how_climate_change_deniers_rise_to_the_top_in_google_searches
[With 2 degrees of warming]
*Global warming: Study predicts a significantly drier world at 2 C
<https://phys.org/news/2017-12-global-significantly-drier-world.html>*
Over a quarter of the world's land could become significantly drier if
global warming reaches 2C—according to new research from an
international team including the University of East Anglia.
The change would cause an increased threat of drought and wildfires.
But limiting global warming to under 1.5C would dramatically reduce the
fraction of the Earth's surface that undergoes such changes...
Aridity is a measure of the dryness of the land surface, obtained from
combining precipitation and evaporation. The research team studied
projections from 27 global climate models to identify the areas of the
world where aridity will substantially change when compared to the
year-to-year variations they experience now, as global warming reaches
1.5C and 2C above pre-industrial levels.
Dr. Chang-Eui Park from SusTech, one of the authors of the study, said:
"Aridification is a serious threat because it can critically impact
areas such as agriculture, water quality, and biodiversity. It can also
lead to more droughts and wildfires—similar to those seen raging across
California.
"Another way of thinking of the emergence of aridification is a shift to
continuous moderate drought conditions, on top of which future
year-to-year variability can cause more severe drought. For instance, in
such a scenario 15 per cent of semi-arid regions would actually
experience conditions similar to 'arid' climates today."
Dr. Manoj Joshi from UEA's School of Environmental Sciences said: "Our
research predicts that aridification would emerge over about 20-30 per
cent of the world's land surface by the time the global mean temperature
change reaches 2C. *But two thirds of the affected regions could avoid
significant aridification if warming is limited to 1.5C."*
Dr. Su-Jong Jeong from SusTech said: "The world has already warmed by
1C. But by reducing greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere in
order to keep global warming under 1.5C or 2C could reduce the
likelihood of significant aridification emerging in many parts of the
world."
Drought severity has been increasing across the Mediterranean, southern
Africa, and the eastern coast of Australia over the course of the 20th
Century, while semi-arid areas of Mexico, Brazil, southern Africa and
Australia have encountered desertification for some time as the world
has warmed.
Prof Tim Osborn from UEA said: "The areas of the world which would most
benefit from keeping warming below 1.5C are parts of South East Asia,
Southern Europe, Southern Africa, Central America and Southern
Australia—where more than 20 per cent of the world's population live today."
'Keeping global warming within 1.5C constrains emergence of
aridification' is published in the journal Nature Climate Change on
January 1, 2018.
https://phys.org/news/2017-12-global-significantly-drier-world.html
-
[California]
*Preparing People for Climate Change in California
<http://www.theresourceinnovationgroup.org/california-2018-conference/>*
Conference To Launch a Movement to Make California the First Trauma-Informed
Human Resilience Enhancing State in the U.S. for Climate Traumas & Stresses!
When: Wednesday-Thursday, January 24-25, 2018
Where: The California Endowment's Oakland Conference Center, in Downton
Oakland, CA.
Even with aggresive emission reductions, global temperatures will
rise by 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5C) above pre-industrial levels,
possibly within just 9-10 years, and likely by at least 3.6 degrees
(2C) afterwards. Humanity is entering an era of dramatic changes in
the earth's climate and ecological systems that for decades will
produce gut-wrenching shocks and stresses for people until
successful emission cuts bring temperatures back down to safe levels
again.
The U.N. Inter-Agency Standing Committee states that mental health,
psychosocial, and humanitarian crisis are often closely connected.
Yet, almost no attention has been given to preparing people in
California for the individual psychological and collective
psycho-social-spiritual impacts of climate change.
This conference will directly address these risks and opportunities
by explaining:
Why climate change is the ultimate social determinant of mental and
physical health and how, left unaddressed, the disasters and chronic
toxic stresses generated by climate change will produce rising
psychological problems including deblilitating anxiety, depression,
PTSD, and suicides, as well as psycho-social-spiritual maladies such
as hopelessness, child and spousal abuse, crime, we vs them hatred,
and interpersonal violence that threaten the safety, health, and
wellbeing of everyone.
To Register Click Here
<https://docs.google.com/a/trig-cli.org/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfmHRfm9Qn8z98dNiFOXZV4MNMKufg4mWjt2yUj9j8ExXDGOg/viewform>
http://www.theresourceinnovationgroup.org/california-2018-conference/
[planning]
*FIGHTING CLIMATE CHANGE, AND BUILDING A WORLD TO WITHSTAND IT
<https://www.wired.com/story/planning-climate-change/>*
..And the next time someone in a city planning meeting says that new
housing shouldn't get built in a residential area because it's not in
keeping with the sense of the community and might disrupt parking, tell
them what that means: that they want young people to have lesser lives,
that they don't want poor people and people of color to have the same
opportunities they did, and that they'd rather the planet's environment
get crushed by letting bad buildings spread to inhospitable places
<https://www.wired.com/story/in-ed-lees-san-francisco-utopia-and-dystopia-are-neighbors/>
than increasing density in cities...
This apocalypse doesn't hurt everyone. Some people benefit. It's not a
coincidence that the FIRE industries also donate the most money
<http://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?Ind=F> to federal
political campaigns. Rich people living behind walls they think can't be
breached by any rising tide, literal or metaphoric, made this disaster.
And then they gaslighted the vulnerable into distrusting anyone raising
the alarm. The people who benefit have made it seem as if this dark
timeline was all perfectly fine.
It isn't. And that's why it'll change.
https://www.wired.com/story/planning-climate-change/
[announcing Webinar Jan 31st] *
Sound Science and Sound Journalism in an Era of Fake News
<https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/4703054722158057219>*
Wed, Jan 31, 2018 1:15 PM – 2:15 PM EST (11:15 AM PST)
REGISTER at
<https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/4703054722158057219>
http://bit.ly/2Dv9Q5X http://securityandsustainabilityforum.org/
Join Island Press and the Security and Sustainability Forum in a sixty
minute discussion about how journalists conduct their research and
investigations, confirm facts, ferret out false information and maintain
a sound basis for their reporting.
Island Press in partnership with the Security and Sustainability Forum
has set a date for our upcoming webinar featuring Carey Gillam, veteran
journalist and author of Whitewash: The Story of a Weed Killer, Cancer,
and the Corruption of Science. On January 31 at 1:15 PM EST Carey will
be joined by Dr. Dana Barr, Environmental Health Professor at Emory's
Rollins School of Public Health for a a conversation on sound science
and sound journalism in an era of fake news. The discussion will be
moderated by journalist Paul Thacker and will be followed by a question
and answer session.
https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/4703054722158057219
http://securityandsustainabilityforum.org/
[All from The Vatican]
*This Day in Climate History January 1, 1990
<http://www.vatican.va/holy_father/john_paul_ii/messages/peace/documents/hf_jp-ii_mes_19891208_xxiii-world-day-for-peace_en.html>,
1999
<http://www.vatican.va/holy_father/john_paul_ii/messages/peace/documents/hf_jp-ii_mes_14121998_xxxii-world-day-for-peace_en.html>,
2010
<http://www.vatican.va/holy_father/benedict_xvi/messages/peace/documents/hf_ben-xvi_mes_20091208_xliii-world-day-peace_en.html>
- from D.R. Tucker*
*January 1, 1990: *In his World Day of Peace message, Pope John Paul II
declares:
"The gradual depletion of the ozone layer and the related 'greenhouse
effect' has now reached crisis proportions as a consequence of
industrial growth, massive urban concentrations and vastly increased
energy needs. Industrial waste, the burning of fossil fuels,
unrestricted deforestation, the use of certain types of herbicides,
coolants and propellants: all of these are known to harm the
atmosphere and environment. The resulting meteorological and
atmospheric changes range from damage to health to the possible future
submersion of low-lying lands.
"While in some cases the damage already done may well be irreversible,
in many other cases it can still be halted. It is necessary, however,
that the entire human community - individuals, States and
international bodies - take seriously the responsibility that is
theirs.
"The most profound and serious indication of the moral implications
underlying the ecological problem is the lack of respect for life
evident in many of the patterns of environmental pollution. Often, the
interests of production prevail over concern for the dignity of
workers, while economic interests take priority over the good of
individuals and even entire peoples. In these cases, pollution or
environmental destruction is the result of an unnatural and
reductionist vision which at times leads to a genuine contempt for
man.
"On another level, delicate ecological balances are upset by the
uncontrolled destruction of animal and plant life or by a reckless
exploitation of natural resources. It should be pointed out that all
of this, even if carried out in the name of progress and well-being,
is ultimately to mankind's disadvantage."
http://www.vatican.va/holy_father/john_paul_ii/messages/peace/documents/hf_jp-ii_mes_19891208_xxiii-world-day-for-peace_en.html
*January 1, 1999: In his World Day of Peace Message, Pope John Paul II
declares:*
"The promotion of human dignity is linked to the right to a healthy
environment, since this right highlights the dynamics of the
relationship between the individual and society. A body of
international, regional and national norms on the environment is
gradually giving juridic form to this right. But juridic measures by
themselves are not sufficient. The danger of serious damage to land
and sea, and to the climate, flora and fauna, calls for a profound
change in modern civilization's typical consumer life-style,
particularly in the richer countries."
http://www.vatican.va/holy_father/john_paul_ii/messages/peace/documents/hf_jp-ii_mes_14121998_xxxii-world-day-for-peace_en.html
*January 1, 2010: In his World Day of Peace message, Pope Benedict XVI
declares:*
"In 1990 John Paul II had spoken of an 'ecological crisis' and, in
highlighting its primarily ethical character, pointed to the 'urgent
moral need for a new solidarity.' His appeal is all the more pressing
today, in the face of signs of a growing crisis which it would be
irresponsible not to take seriously. Can we remain indifferent before
the problems associated with such realities as climate change,
desertification, the deterioration and loss of productivity in vast
agricultural areas, the pollution of rivers and aquifers, the loss of
biodiversity, the increase of natural catastrophes and the
deforestation of equatorial and tropical regions? Can we disregard the
growing phenomenon of 'environmental refugees,' people who are forced
by the degradation of their natural habitat to forsake it – and often
their possessions as well – in order to face the dangers and
uncertainties of forced displacement? Can we remain impassive in the
face of actual and potential conflicts involving access to natural
resources? All these are issues with a profound impact on the exercise
of human rights, such as the right to life, food, health and
development."
http://www.vatican.va/holy_father/benedict_xvi/messages/peace/documents/hf_ben-xvi_mes_20091208_xliii-world-day-peace_en.html
/
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