[TheClimate.Vote] July 11, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Wed Jul 11 11:08:11 EDT 2018
/July 11, 2018/
[Los Angeles heatwave blackout]
*Here's Why The Power Grid Had An Epic Fail This Weekend
<http://www.laist.com/2018/07/10/heres_why_the_power_grid_had_an_epic_fail_this_weekend.php>*
BY EMILY GUERIN IN NEWS ON JULY 10, 2018
More than 90,000 people lost power in greater Los Angeles during this
weekend's heat wave. And as of Tuesday morning, the LAWDP said about 700
still didn't have it back. Wondering what happened? Here you go:
How, exactly, does heat cause a power outage?
First, demand for power rises during a heat wave, as more people switch
on their air conditioners. And when it's hotter, your fridge, freezer
and AC have to work extra hard to cool the air, which requires even more
power.
Sometimes there's not enough electricity being generated to meet all the
extra demand. In other words, it's a problem with supply.
*Yes. Except that's not what happened this weekend.*
*There was plenty of power available*
The problem was the electricity distribution system: the local network
of poles, wires and transformers that are operated by utilities like
LADWP or SoCal Edison.
Typically, power demand surges in the afternoon and evenings when people
come home from work and turn on their air conditioners. It usually
begins to die down around 9:00 p.m. as temperatures drop.
But during heat waves, it's hot at night. So people keep running their
ACs while they sleep, and fridges and freezers keep working hard after
dark. That means transformers don't get a chance to catch a break, or to
cool down.
And that can cause transformers to break, according to SoCal Edison
spokesman Robert Villegas.
"No piece of equipment is designed to run at 100 percent capacity of the
time, forever," he said. "A piece of equipment can fail due to the
continual strain.".....
https://twitter.com/LAist/status/1016702990701473793
http://www.laist.com/2018/07/10/heres_why_the_power_grid_had_an_epic_fail_this_weekend.php
[Cornell lecture overview and latest science]
*Trends in Hurricane Activity (2018)
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLRDapQ9aRk>*
Climate State - Published on Jul 10, 2018
Tropical cyclones, which are called hurricanes in the Atlantic, are one
of the most destructive weather phenomena. This presentation will
explore the links between climate and tropical cyclones, with a focus on
how hurricanes and tropical cyclones have changed in the past, and what
we think they will do in the future.
http://www.atkinson.cornell.edu/events/ClimateChangeSem.php
Speaker: Gabriel Vecchi (Princeton University)
Recorded at Cornell University - May 7, 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLRDapQ9aRk
- - - - - -
[more lectures]
*Cornell University Climate Change Seminar
<http://www.atkinson.cornell.edu/events/ClimateChangeSem.php>*
Perspectives on the Climate Change Challenge
http://www.atkinson.cornell.edu/events/ClimateChangeSem.php
[Trumpet into Trump's ear]
*Vice Admiral McGinn on CNN: The President should acknowledge climate
threat at NATO
<https://climateandsecurity.org/2018/07/10/vice-admiral-mcginn-on-cnn-the-president-should-acknowledge-climate-threat-at-nato/>*
In an article published today by CNN, the Center for Climate and
Security's Vice Admiral Dennis McGinn, U.S. Navy (Ret), former Assistant
Secretary of the Navy for Energy, Installations and Environment, has an
important bit of advice for the U.S. President and other NATO leaders as
they head to Brussels to participate in the NATO Summit: Take the advice
of U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis and acknowledge the security
threat of a changing climate.
From the article:
US Defense Secretary James Mattis is one of this country's greatest
military leaders. A former four-star Marine General, he's well read,
thoughtful, pragmatic and highly intelligent. As our foremost
national security strategist, in 2017, he described climate change
as a threat facing the US.
“The effects of a changing climate - such as increased maritime
access to the Arctic, rising sea levels, desertification, among
others - impact our security situation,” he wrote.
Since then, 15 other senior US defense leaders have reaffirmed that
view.
Read the full article at the CNN website:
- - - - -
[CNN says ]
*The threat Trump has to acknowledge at NATO
<https://edition.cnn.com/2018/07/10/opinions/trump-nato-climate-change-opinion-intl/index.html>*
By Vice Admiral Dennis McGinn
The President's narrow focus on the near term billions that NATO needs
misses a key point: climate change is an oncoming reality that could
cost us trillions.
Lloyds of London's 2017 annual report said the "cost of major claims to
the Lloyd's market in 2017 is the third highest since 2003." The largest
hits in the US were Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Harvey and wildfires
across California. Direct costs were more than $140 billion.
"Global risks are changing and the potential consequences are severe,"
Lloyds said. "Increased frequency and severity of major weather events
mean that climate change has increased the risks and costs of insurance."
Further, the banking giant Schroders warns that global supply chains
worth billions of dollars are at material risk from extreme weather.
"Without public policy looking to change private sector behavior,
economies run the risk of continuing to pollute to a point where it is
too late and the economic costs are catastrophic."
The Pentagon also has done extensive analysis and produced multiple
reports explicitly spelling out the dangers the US faces from a warming
climate, including under the Trump administration.
"DoD looks at climate through the lens of its mission. From that
perspective, changes in climate affect national security in several
ways. Changes in climate can potentially shape the environment in which
we operate and the missions we are required to do," the Pentagon said in
a report released just this past January.
In 2015, the Pentagon also noted -- and this is important: "Department
of Defense sees climate change as a present security threat, not
strictly a long-term risk."
Seawalls may help stop some storm surges and coastal erosion, but
building walls is not always the answer, especially when our economic
security rests on the foundation of reliable allies for trade.
In Brussels, the President is not likely to change course and honestly
admit that, as a strategic leader, he's concerned about climate change.
But he should. And leaders in the US and NATO must continue to press
their case...
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/07/10/opinions/trump-nato-climate-change-opinion-intl/index.html
[Spots of intense cold]
*Finding the pulse of the polar vortex
<https://phys.org/news/2018-07-pulse-polar-vortex.html#jCp>*
July 10, 2018 by Josie Garthwaite, Stanford University
If you can predict the path of the jet stream, the upper atmosphere's
undulating river of wind, then you can predict weather - not just for a
week or two, but for an entire season. A new Stanford study moves toward
that level of foresight by revealing a physical link between the speed
and location of the jet stream and the strength of the polar vortex, a
swirl of air that usually hovers over the Arctic.
"The jet stream sets everything," said Aditi Sheshadri, lead author and
assistant professor of Earth System Science in the School of Earth,
Energy, & Environmental Sciences (Stanford Earth). "Storms ride along
it. They interact with it. If the jet stream shifts, the place where the
storms are strongest will also shift."
The research, published in the Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,
identifies two distinct modes in how air flows within the jet stream and
the layers of atmosphere that sandwich it.
*The atmosphere's deep system*
In one mode, changes in wind speed and direction start close to the
equator in the troposphere, the wet, stormy layer of atmosphere below
the jet stream and closest to Earth's surface. Shifts of wind in this
mode quickly propagate up through the jet stream and into the polar
vortex in the dry, upper layer of atmosphere known as the stratosphere.
In the other mode, the strength of the stratosphere's polar vortex
influences the path and strength of the jet stream - and how it
interacts with storms in the troposphere. In this mode, the polar vortex
sends a signal all the way down to the surface like a pulse. A weaker
vortex produces a weak jet stream that slips toward the equator; a
stronger vortex intensifies the jet stream while drawing it poleward.
"These deep vertical structures haven't been shown before," Sheshadri
said. "It's something fundamental about the system itself." Her analysis
could help explain the surface weather impacts of an event that occurred
in early 2018, when the vortex weakened so much that it ripped in two -
a phenomenon that scientists know can blast up to two months of extreme
weather into western Europe. Until now, understanding of these
interactions has been based on observations and statistical modeling
rather than knowledge of their physical foundation.
These modes could be key to predicting the long-term effects of certain
environmental changes on Earth's surface. While air is thought to flow
relatively independently within the troposphere and stratosphere in
normal winters, depleted ozone, high levels of greenhouse gases, ocean
warming, reduced snow cover, and other disturbances can rattle this
independence, affecting both the vortex and jet stream in complex ways.
Greenhouse gas emissions, for example, can strengthen the vortex while
simultaneously boosting waves that propagate up from the troposphere and
weaken the vortex as they break...
- - - --
By revealing the physical processes that underpin some of these dynamic
variables, the method developed in this study could also help weed out
flaws in climate models.
"The way that we currently do this is that you take a model and you run
it forward," checking the model's predictions against observed data,
Sheshadri explained. But many models built upon the same historic data
produce different predictions for the future, in part because they make
different assumptions about how the troposphere and stratosphere
interact and how the jet stream fluctuates. Until now there has not been
a way to check those assumptions against the atmosphere's actual
variability.
"We need to be sure the models are right, and for the right reasons,"
Sheshadri said. The new work provides a way to resolve that uncertainty
- and to anticipate storms months into the future.
Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-07-pulse-polar-vortex.html#jCp
[Paleo-alarmism]
*Stronger west winds blow ill wind for climate change
<https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-07/uons-sww070918.php>*
Strengthening west winds close to Antarctica previously led to massive
outgassing of carbon
UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES
Stronger westerly winds in the Southern Ocean could be the cause of a
sudden rise in atmospheric CO2 and temperatures in a period of less than
100 years about 16,000 years ago, according to a study published in
Nature Communications.
The westerly winds during that event strengthened as they contracted
closer to Antarctica, leading to a domino effect that caused an
outgassing of carbon dioxide from the Southern Ocean into the atmosphere.
This contraction and strengthening of the winds is very similar to what
we are already seeing today as a result of human caused climate change.
"During this earlier period, known as Heinrich stadial 1, atmospheric
CO2 increased by a total of ~40ppm, Antarctic surface atmospheric
temperatures increased by around 5°C and Southern Ocean temperatures
increased by 3°C," said lead author Dr Laurie Menviel, a Scientia Fellow
with the University of New South Wales (Sydney).
"With this in mind, the contraction and strengthening of westerly winds
today could have significant implications for atmospheric CO2
concentrations and our future climate."
Scientists know changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide have profound
impacts on our climate system. This is why researchers are so interested
in Heinrich events, where rapid increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide
occur over a very short period of time.
Heinrich event 1, which occurred about 16,000 years ago, is a favorite
to study because alterations in ocean currents, temperature, ice and sea
levels are clearly captured in an array of geological measures. This
allows theories to be tested against these changes.
Until now, many of the propositions put forward for the carbon dioxide
spike struggled to explain its timing, rapidity and magnitude.
But when the researchers used climate models to replicate an increase in
the strength of westerly winds as they contracted towards the Antarctic,
the elements began to align. The stronger winds caused a domino effect
that not only reproduced the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide but
also other changes seen during Heinrich 1.
The stronger winds had a direct impact on the ocean circulation,
increasing the formation of bottom water along the Antarctic coast and
enhancing the transport of carbon rich waters from the deep Pacific
Ocean to the surface of the Southern Ocean. As a result, about 100Gt of
carbon dioxide was emitted into the atmosphere by the Southern Ocean.
Today, observations suggest westerly winds are again contracting
southwards and getting stronger in response to the warming of our planet.
"The carbon exchange in particular between the Southern Ocean and the
atmosphere matter deeply for our climate. It is estimated the Southern
Ocean absorbs around 25% of our atmospheric carbon emissions and that
~43% of that carbon is taken up by the Ocean south of 30S," said Dr Menviel.
"With westerly winds already contracting towards Antarctica, it's
important to know if this event is an analogue for what we may see in
our own future.
"For this reason, it is vital to bring more observational networks into
the Southern Ocean to monitor these changes. We need a clear warning if
we are approaching a point in our climate system where we may see a
spike in atmospheric carbon dioxide and the rapid temperature rise that
inevitably follows."
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-07/uons-sww070918.php
[precision]
*Big Tech Should Take the Lead on Climate Change-Here's Why
<https://singularityhub.com/2018/07/09/big-tech-should-take-the-lead-on-climate-change-heres-why/#sm.000085yh3g9z1covzi41quxjccq50>*
By Owen Gaffney - Jul 09, 20180
At Collision, which calls itself “North America's fastest-growing tech
conference,” former United Nations climate chief Christiana Figueres
threw down a challenge to tech titans: move the world from incremental
to exponential action on climate change.
The digital tech sector is the wild card in fossil-fuel escape plans.
Disruption of the global economy is on the way through AI, Internet of
Things, big data, biotech, and more. But it is far from clear whether
this will drive greenhouse gas emissions up or slash them in half. The
climate conversation with tech entrepreneurs and leaders needs to change
for three reasons.
First, the technology sector gets it. Tech titans are already on course
to carbon neutrality. Apple has committed to adopting a 100 percent
circular economy throughout its supply chain. Alphabet claims it is now
the world's largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy. And Bill
Gates and Mark Zuckerberg are investing a billion dollars in clean
energy solutions.
Second, the technology sector gets how to harness the power of
exponentials better than any other economic sector on Earth. And we need
this expertise right now. More later.
Third, and most significantly, the biggest influence the tech sector can
have is not on its own emissions or even those of its suppliers-it is,
after all, just 2-2.5 percent of global emissions. Tech titans are the
interface with global consumers and citizens. On a daily basis,
Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft influence the behavior
of billions of people-the world's middle classes and the world's
businesses...
- - - - -
The next decade is critical for the planet. The global economy will
transform. We have the perfect opportunity to kickstart global
cooperation for exponential change at the Global Climate Action Summit
in San Francisco this summer. As they say, the best way to predict the
future is to create it.
https://singularityhub.com/2018/07/09/big-tech-should-take-the-lead-on-climate-change-heres-why/#sm.000085yh3g9z1covzi41quxjccq50
[Humor - First things first]
*Wednesday's Global Warming meeting postponed
<https://wembleymatters.blogspot.com/2018/07/wednesdays-global-warming-meeting.html>*
Kensal & Kilburn Better 2018 have postponed the meeting on 'Why aren't
we talking/worrying/panicking more about global warning?' that was to be
held on Wednesday July 11th because of the clash with England's Word Cup
football game.
The organisers said:
As you will likely know, our event scheduled for 7pm on Wednesday 11
July is now a direct clash with England's first World Cup semi-final
since 1990. Although this is a relatively trivial matter compared with
global warming and the future of human life on the planet, we have taken
the difficult decision to postpone the event. We want to be fair to our
speakers (including Natalie Bennett who would be travelling down from
Sheffield) and so we don't want to ask them to come along to address a
much-diminished audience.
Tuesday, 10 July 2018
We are looking for a new date and will be in touch as soon as possible.
https://wembleymatters.blogspot.com/2018/07/wednesdays-global-warming-meeting.html
*This Day in Climate History - July 11, 1990
<http://articles.latimes.com/1990-07-11/news/mn-224_1_global-warming-issue>
- from D.R. Tucker*
July 11, 1990: The Los Angeles Times observes that President George H.
W. Bush seems to have dissociative identity disorder when it comes to
climate:
"The tension is often explained as a dispute between Bush's
strong-willed chief of staff, John H. Sununu, who is deeply
suspicious of environmentalists, and his Environmental Protection
Agency chief, William K. Reilly.
"That explanation, however, is an inaccurate characterization,
Administration officials say. Although Reilly has advocated a
stronger environmental policy, he has neither the clout nor the
access to Bush to challenge Sununu, the officials say. In fact,
Reilly has been conspicuous by his absence from the economic summit,
virtually the only senior Administration official with an interest
in the summit issues whom Bush left in Washington.
"Instead, the disputes within the Administration reflect Bush's own
ambivalence about the issues. Throughout his Administration, he has
been pulled in opposite directions on the environment, tugged
between his desire to placate environmentally-conscious voters on
the one side and his instinct to protect business people from
government regulation on the other."
The Times also notes:
"Bush's top aides are unanimous in believing that the scientific
evidence is shaky on all aspects of global warming--the problem's
dimensions, its potential effects and its causes."
http://articles.latimes.com/1990-07-11/news/mn-224_1_global-warming-issue
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