[TheClimate.Vote] July 16, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Mon Jul 16 09:57:11 EDT 2018
/July 16, 2018/
[All American sport]
*The hot, stormy weather forecast for the MLB All-Star Game and events
leading up <https://www.washingtonpost.com/>*
By Angela Fritz - July 13
(The Washington Post - subscription)
It's All-Star Weekend in Washington, and baseball fans are overrunning
the capital. A mini-heatwave is also moving in, with temperatures in the
90s and a triple-digit heat index through Tuesday
https://www.washingtonpost.com/
[Audio and text]
*The global corn crop is vulnerable to the effects of climate change
<https://www.pri.org/stories/2018-07-15/global-corn-crop-vulnerable-effects-climate-change>*
Living on Earth
July 15, 2018 - Writer Adam Wernick
stream/download
<http://loe.org/audio/stream.m3u?file=/content/2018-06-29/loe_180629_b2_Crop%20Failures%20-Ozone8_03-01.mp3>
this segment as an MP3 file
Corn, also known as maize, is the world's most-produced food crop. But
it could be headed for trouble as the Earth warms.
A new study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America finds that climate change will not only
increase the risk of food shocks from world corn production but that
these crop failures could occur simultaneously.
"Increased warming leads to global crop failures because plants are not
adapted to really high temperatures," explains Michelle Tigchelaar, a
research associate at the University of Washington. "Most of our crops
are really well-adapted for our current climate. There is an optimum
temperature at which they grow and beyond that their yields decline.
Extreme heat has really negative impacts on…the flowering of crops and
also increases their water usage."
- - - -
Farmers may be able to find ways to adapt to new conditions. For
example, Tigchelaar says her study did not look at the extent to which
growing regions could shift. "Already we see that wheat is expanding
northward," she explains. "So, we might be able to soon grow corn in
places we couldn't grow it before. Similarly, farmers might decide to
shift their planting dates to avoid the hottest time of the year."
Ultimately, however, if a four-degree-warmer world is our future, the
world will need crops that tolerate heat better, Tigchelaar says.
International maize and wheat organizations have worked for decades at
breeding crops more tolerant to heat, so far without success.
"This is a really difficult trait to breed into crops, and it should be
a major effort - but it's also a little disconcerting that they haven't
achieved that yet," Tigchelaar says...
https://www.pri.org/stories/2018-07-15/global-corn-crop-vulnerable-effects-climate-change
- - - - -
[Read the full study here <http://www.pnas.org/content/115/26/6644/>]
*Future warming increases probability of globally synchronized maize
production shocks <http://www.pnas.org/content/115/26/6644/>*
*Significance*
Climate-induced shocks in grain production are a major contributor
to global market volatility, which creates uncertainty for cereal
farmers and agribusiness and reduces food access for poor consumers
when production falls and prices spike. Our study, by combining
empirical models of maize production with future warming scenarios,
shows that in a warmer climate, maize yields will decrease and
become more variable. Because just a few countries dominate global
maize production and trade, simultaneous production shocks in these
countries can have tremendous impacts on global markets. We show
that such synchronous shocks are rare now but will become much more
likely if the climate continues to warm. Our results underscore the
need for continued investments in breeding for heat tolerance.
Abstract
Meeting the global food demand of roughly 10 billion people by the
middle of the 21st century will become increasingly challenging as
the Earth's climate continues to warm. Earlier studies suggest that
once the optimum growing temperature is exceeded, mean crop yields
decline and the variability of yield increases even if interannual
climate variability remains unchanged. Here, we use global datasets
of maize production and climate variability combined with future
temperature projections to quantify how yield variability will
change in the world's major maize-producing and -exporting countries
under 2C and 4C of global warming. We find that as the global mean
temperature increases, absent changes in temperature variability or
breeding gains in heat tolerance, the coefficient of variation (CV)
of maize yields increases almost everywhere to values much larger
than present-day values. This higher CV is due both to an increase
in the SD of yields and a decrease in mean yields. For the top four
maize-exporting countries, which account for 87% of global maize
exports, the probability that they have simultaneous production
losses greater than 10% in any given year is presently virtually
zero, but it increases to 7% under 2C warming and 86% under 4C
warming. Our results portend rising instability in global grain
trade and international grain prices, affecting especially the ∼800
million people living in extreme poverty who are most vulnerable to
food price spikes. They also underscore the urgency of investments
in breeding for heat tolerance.
http://www.pnas.org/content/115/26/6644/
[World Bank Study from 2013]
*Which Coastal Cities Are at Highest Risk of Damaging Floods? New Study
Crunches the Numbers
<http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2013/08/19/coastal-cities-at-highest-risk-floods>*
August 19, 2013
- - - - -
In terms of the overall cost of damage, the *cities at the greatest risk
are: 1) Guangzhou, 2) Miami, 3) New York, 4) New Orleans, 5) Mumbai, 6)
Nagoya, 7) Tampa, 8) Boston, 9) Shenzen, and 10) Osaka. The top four
cities alone account for 43% of the forecast total global losses.*
However, developing-country cities move up the list when flood costs are
measured as a percentage of city gross domestic product (GDP). Many of
them are growing rapidly, have large populations, are poor, and are
exposed to tropical storms and sinking land.
The study lists the *10 most vulnerable cities when measured as
percentage of GDP as: 1) Guangzhou; 2) New Orleans; 3) Guayaquil,
Ecuador; 4) Ho Chi Minh City; 5) Abidjan; 6) Zhanjing; 7) Mumbai; 8)
Khulna, Bangladesh; 9) Palembang, Indonesia; and 10) Shenzen.*
In most of these cities, the poor are most at risk as rapid urbanization
has pushed them into the most vulnerable neighborhoods, often in
low-lying areas and along waterways prone to flooding...
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2013/08/19/coastal-cities-at-highest-risk-floods
- - - -
CLIMATE CHANGE WILL FORCE THE POOR FROM THEIR HOMES
*'Climate Gentrification' Will Deepen Urban Inequality
<https://www.citylab.com/equity/2018/07/the-reality-of-climate-gentrification/564152/>*
RICHARD FLORIDA JUL 5, 2018
A new study investigates the intersection of climate change and real
estate, and finds that higher elevations bring higher values.
It's no surprise that a list of places most at risk from climate change
and sea-level rise reads like a Who's Who of global cities, since
historically, many great cities have developed near oceans, natural
harbors, or other bodies of water. Miami ranks first, New York comes
second, and Tokyo, London, Shanghai, and Hong Kong all number among the
top 20 at-risk cities in terms of total projected losses.
Cities in the less developed and more rapidly urbanizing parts of the
world, such as Ho Chi Minh City and Mumbai, may experience even more
substantial losses as a percentage of their total economic output.
Looking out to 2050, annual losses from flooding related to climate
change and sea-level rise could increase to more than $60 billion a year.
But global climate change poses another risk for cities: accelerated
gentrification. That's according to a new study by Jesse Keenan, Thomas
Hill, and Anurag Gumber, all of Harvard University, that focuses on
"climate gentrification." While still emerging and not yet clearly
defined, the theory of climate gentrification is based, the authors
write, "on a simple proposition: [C]limate change impacts arguably make
some property more or less valuable by virtue of its capacity to
accommodate a certain density of human settlement and its associated
infrastructure." The implication is that such price volatility "is
either a primary or a partial driver of the patterns of urban
development that lead to displacement (and sometimes entrenchment) of
existing populations consistent with conventional framings of
gentrification."
The study, published in Environmental Research Letters, advances a
simple "elevation hypothesis," arguing that real estate at higher
elevations in cities at risk for climate change and sea-level rise
appreciates at a higher rate than elsewhere...
https://www.citylab.com/equity/2018/07/the-reality-of-climate-gentrification/564152/
- - - -
[Environmental Research Letters]
*Climate gentrification: from theory to empiricism in Miami-Dade County,
Florida <http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aabb32>*
Abstract
This article provides a conceptual model for the pathways by which
climate change could operate to impact geographies and property
markets whose inferior or superior qualities for supporting the
built environment are subject to a descriptive theory known as
'Climate Gentrification.' The article utilizes Miami-Dade County,
Florida (MDC) as a case study to explore the market mechanisms that
speak to the operations and processes inherent in the theory. This
article tests the hypothesis that the rate of price appreciation of
single-family properties in MDC is positively related to and
correlated with incremental measures of higher elevation (the
'Elevation Hypothesis'). As a reflection of an increase in observed
nuisance flooding and relative SLR, the second hypothesis is that
the rates of price appreciation in lowest the elevation cohorts have
not kept up with the rates of appreciation of higher elevation
cohorts since approximately 2000 (the 'Nuisance Hypothesis'). The
findings support a validation of both hypotheses and suggest the
potential existence of consumer preferences that are based, in part,
on perceptions of flood risk and/or observations of flooding. These
preferences and perceptions are anticipated to be amplified by
climate change in a manner that reinforces the proposition that
climate change impacts will affect the marketability and valuation
of property with varying degrees of environmental exposure and
resilience functionality. Uncovering these empirical relationships
is a critical first step for understanding the occurrence and
parameters of Climate Gentrification.
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aabb32
[a new field of study]
*Studying the health impacts of global environmental change
<http://climateandcapitalism.com/2018/07/15/studying-the-health-impacts-of-global-environmental-change/>*
Posted on July 15, 2018
Planetary Health, a new field of scientific research, focuses on the
human health impacts of the growing disruption of Earth's metabolic systems
The growing global crisis poses immediate and long-term threats to human
health and well-being. This article, first published in Environmental
Health Perspectives, provides important background on the efforts of
scientists to understand and respond to those threats.
*DOWN TO EARTH: THE EMERGING FIELD OF PLANETARY HEALTH*
by Nate Seltenrich
Nate Seltenrich is an award-winning freelance journalist based in the
San Francisco Bay Area, whose work covers science, energy, and the
environment.
Human impacts on our planet have become so profound that many
researchers now favor a new name for the current epoch: the
Anthropocene. The underlying premise of this term is that essentially
every Earth system, from the deep oceans to the upper atmosphere, has
been significantly modified by human activity.
This idea, and related concepts like the great acceleration, planetary
boundaries, and tipping points may be of interest, even grave concern,
to ecologists, biologists, and climatologists. Yet viewed through an
environmental health lens-which recognizes the critical links between
human health and the food we eat, the water we drink, and the air we
breathe-humans' growing influence on the planet threatens the very
long-term survival of our species.
"There's a bit of a paradox that we're seeing for the last 100 to 150
years," says Michael Myers, managing director for health at the
Rockefeller Foundation. "Exploitation of the environment has contributed
to human health. By exploiting Earth resources we have a more
comfortable existence, and our life spans have increased considerably.
But we're now at a tipping point in which the exploitation of the
environment is beginning to have a negative impact on human health." The
same natural systems that have benefited us for so long, he says, are
now beginning to collapse.
From this realization has come another new term: planetary health.
There is significant overlap between planetary health and traditional
environmental health; both examine the relationship between human health
and conditions and exposures originating outside the body, be they
extreme temperatures, chemicals and biological agents, vector-borne
diseases, or any number of other potential factors. However, planetary
health, by definition, explicitly accounts for the importance of natural
systems in terms of averted cases of disease and the potential harm that
comes from human-caused perturbations of these systems-a consideration
that has not necessarily factored into environmental health research to
date...
- - - - -
"We're seeing young people who combine the insights of different fields
very fluidly, and that's exactly what we'll need in this field in coming
years."
To achieve its goals, adds Osofsky, the field will also need to play an
active and deliberate role in shaping policy and decision-making. For
example, he recommends formally including public health considerations
in environmental impact assessments for major development projects.
"When we think about large infrastructure projects like a dam on the
Mekong, and millions of people are depending on fisheries for
micronutrients and protein, that's really important-and yet we don't do
robust public health impact assessments," says Osofsky. "If you're
building a highway through the Amazon, you need to methodically look at
what that means for vector-borne disease. And today, we don't do that.
We have to look at the pros and cons of these actions in terms of
economic impact, social impact, environmental impact, and public health
impact."
Raffaella Bosurgi, editor of The Lancet Planetary Health, agrees that
the field is inherently political. "We need to build the scientific
evidence, and then once we build it, it must help us strengthen the case
for policy action," she says. "In that way, we can revise and
practically change the way we interact with the environment."
Ultimately, Osofsky says, the field of planetary health is an optimistic
one. It makes the case that complex relationships between human
modification of the environment and human health outcomes can be
understood and thus more thoughtfully and proactively addressed. "If you
measure something, then you can really hold
people-ourselves-accountable," he says. "The planetary health message
gives one prospect for hope."
http://climateandcapitalism.com/2018/07/15/studying-the-health-impacts-of-global-environmental-change/
[Media competence]
*Climate change is behind the global heat wave. Why won't the media say
it?
<http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-stokes-heat-wave-media-climate-change-20180715-story.html>*
By LEAH C. STOKES
JUL 15, 2018
*Climate change is behind the global heat wave. Why won't the media say it?*
Last week's heat wave brought record temperatures to Southern
California. Hot winds blew fire into my community in Santa Barbara
County, ripping through a dozen homes and threatening hundreds more.
I tuned into the local news channel, where reporters reminded viewers
that we had just finished a record-breaking fire season. They strained
to list all the fires we'd had over the past decade. There were too many
to recall.
Fires are happening a lot more often across California. You can't
accurately call it a fire "season" anymore. The season is year-round.
But journalists who report on the fires or heat waves rarely acknowledge
this reality. Last week, the local newscasters in my area never did,
even though it has a very familiar name: climate change.
The same is true of the media at large. Although it reports on each
fresh disaster - every fire, every hurricane, every flood - it tends to
stop short of linking extreme weather events to global warming, as
though the subject were the exclusive province of reporters on the
climate beat.
The science is clear. Journalists need to start using it.
*
**As a result, we're missing what is arguably the biggest story of all:
The climate we knew is no more. We've already warmed the planet, whether
we deny it or not.*
It's not hard to spot global warming in the news. If you're looking, its
marks are everywhere. Right now, southern Japan is flooded. Two months'
worth of rain fell in five days, a day's worth in an hour. Mudslides
followed. More than 200 are dead, more are missing, millions are displaced.
But to get the larger story about extreme weather events, you have to
read between the headlines.
There is no sound justification for this. Not anymore. Scientists have
been churning out evidence of human-caused climate change for more than
a century. Some are figuring out exactly how much to blame global
warming for any given weather event. They're getting really good at it.
We can now link many recent disasters and weather events to climate
change. We know, for instance, that more than three-quarters of moderate
heat waves are connected to warming. We also know that, were it not for
climate change, fires in the West would have burned half as much land
since the 1980s. Scientists have been documenting the increase in
extreme rain events in Japan since the early 1990s.
There are reasons they haven't. Reporters are trained to distinguish
weather from climate. They are also conditioned to avoid the appearance
of political bias, and a decades-long campaign to sow doubt about global
warming has cast a partisan aura on the facts.
But with a bit of nuance, journalists can carefully identify the
pattern. Any weather event has multiple causes. More and more, climate
change is one of them, and its share of blame is growing.
The public is not entirely in the dark. In fact, research by Peter D.
Howe, a geographer at Utah State University, shows that 60% of people in
89 countries correctly perceive that temperatures where they live have
warmed over time. According to a study by the political scientists Matto
Mildenberger and Dustin Tingley, most Americans underestimate how many
people share their belief that climate change is real. Most of us know
this is not a drill, and most of us want our government to do more.
We all need to do more. Countries around the world need to go beyond the
commitments made in Paris. We need more wind and solar energy. We need
states to keep nuclear plants open when they are safe, because they
already produce clean energy. We need to stop rolling back renewable
energy laws, as my research has documented in Ohio, Texas and Arizona.
But we won't do any of this until we can see what's happening.
Journalists play a critical role in helping the public to make these
connections. They need to start telling the whole story.
Leah C. Stokes (@leahstokes) is an assistant professor of environmental
politics at UC Santa Barbara.
*This Day in Climate History - July 16, 1992
<http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/27161-1>- from D.R. Tucker*
July 16, 1992: At the 1992 Democratic National Convention, Senator and
Vice-Presidential nominee Al Gore notes:
"I've spent much of my career working to protect the environment,
not only because it is vital to the future of my State of Tennessee,
our country and our earth, but because I believe there is a
fundamental link between our current relationship to the earth and
the attitudes that stand in the way of human progress. For
generations we have believed that we could abuse the earth because
we were somehow not really connected to it, but now we must face the
truth. The task of saving the earth's environment must and will
become the central organizing principle of the post-Cold War world.
"And just as the false assumption that we are not connected to the
earth has led to the ecological crisis, so the equally false
assumption that we are not connected to each other has led to our
social crisis."
He also declares that President George H. W. Bush and Vice President Dan
Quayle "embarrassed our nation when the whole world was asking for
American leadership in confronting the environmental crisis. It is time
for them to go."
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/27161-1
http://www.speeches-usa.com/Transcripts/al_gore-1992dnc.htm
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