[TheClimate.Vote] June 18, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Mon Jun 18 11:00:10 EDT 2018
/June 18, 2018/
[weather defines climate]
*Roads Washed Out, Dozens of Sinkholes Reported as Flash Flooding Slams
Upper Midwest
<https://weather.com/news/news/2018-06-17-flash-flooding-minnesota-michigan-wisconsin>*
Heavy rain caused flash flooding in the Upper Midwest Sunday morning.
At least 60 sinkholes have been reported in Michigan, where a Flash
Flood Emergency was declared.
Numerous roads have been washed out.
https://weather.com/news/news/2018-06-17-flash-flooding-minnesota-michigan-wisconsin
[fundamental cryology]
*Why the Pine Island Glacier began to suddenly shrink
<https://www.earth.com/news/pine-island-glacier-shrink/>*
By: Chrissy Sexton on 06.15.2018...
The team's maps revealed an unknown submarine ridge and two mountains,
the peaks of which reach up to a water depth of 370 meters.
The 400-meter thick ice shelf of the Pine Island Glacier had likely been
grounded on the ridge for several decades, which satellite images
confirm. In the older images, the surface of the ice was visibly raised
at the precise points where the peaks of the ridge are directly under
the ice shelf.
"But after 2006, these landmarks are nowhere to be seen," explained
study co-author Dr. Karsten Gohl. "By that time, the ice shelf must have
melted so extensively from below that it was either too light to produce
any impression on the surface of the ice, or the ice sheet must have
already lost contact with the mountains beneath it."
When an ice shelf loses contact with its "pinning points," the ice
stream is released and flows rapidly out to sea.
The scientists found that mountains can stabilize ice shelves like giant
brakes, but that they also have the potential to set off calving events.
In 2007, satellite images show that the edge of the Pine Island ice
shelf crashed into one of the underlying mountains with such a force
that the entire face of the ice shelf broke off. The calving event of
2015, they concluded, was caused by a similar event when the ice shelf
made contact with the ridge.
"The roughly 50-kilometer-long edge of the Pine Island Glacier's ice
shelf currently runs between an island to the north and another glacier
to the south, which once again give the ice a bit of support," said Dr.
Arndt.
If the melting beneath the glacier persists, the process could make the
ice shelf so thin that it becomes unstable. According to the study
authors, however, the ice thickness at the calving front of the glacier
currently measures approximately 400 meters, and instability is not a
threat at this point.
https://www.earth.com/news/pine-island-glacier-shrink/
[Calling on the Arctic Council]
*Finnish president demands Arctic Summit to stop dangerous black carbon
emissions
<https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2018/06/finnish-president-demands-arctic-summit-stop-dangerous-black-carbon-emissions>*
President Sauli Niinisto addressed the Finnish Climate Summit in
Helsinki on Wednesday, calling on the Arctic Council member states to
meet to tackle black carbon emissions in the far north.
June 13, 2018
Niinisto said Finland wants to see "a first-ever Arctic Summit, bringing
together the heads of state and government from the eight members of the
Council: the United States, Russia, Canada and the five Nordic states,"
adding that "a firm high-level commitment to reduce black carbon
emissions in the Arctic would be welcome news for the environment".
Black carbon refers to soot deposits that are darkening Arctic ice. As a
result, it begins absorbing heat rather than reflecting sunlight, thus
speeding up global warming.
*Black carbon speeds ice melt*
"Unlike the long-term impacts of CO2, black carbon has immediate
effects," the president said. "In the Arctic, it accelerates the melting
of the sea ice. This creates a negative feedback loop, making climate
change even faster. But the positive side to the story is that our
action can also have an immediate impact."
"If we are able to cut down black carbon emissions - for instance from
maritime transport, from old-fashioned power plants and from flaring in
oil and gas fields - we will make a significant contribution to
combating climate change in the Arctic. And saving the Arctic is
essential in saving the globe."...
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2018/06/finnish-president-demands-arctic-summit-stop-dangerous-black-carbon-emissions
[another CO2 source]
*Dry riverbeds are contributing to climate change more than previously
thought <https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180615094839.htm>*
Date: June 15, 2018
A massive world-wide study of dry riverbeds has found they're
contributing more carbon emissions than previously thought, and this
could help scientists better understand how to fight climate change.
Dr Nathan Waltham from the Tropical Water and Aquatic Eco-systems
Research Centre (TropWATER) and James Cook University in Australia,
joined scientists from 22 other countries who looked at 212 dry
riverbeds on every continent on earth.
He said the contribution of intermittent rivers and streams to the
process of carbon cycling - the process by which carbon is circulated
around the ecosystem - is largely ignored.
"There is a substantial amount of plant litter that accumulates in dry
riverbeds and when they flow again this material can breakdown rapidly.
We've now estimated the potential short-term CO2 emissions during these
rewetting events."
"We believe that a single pulse of CO2 emission upon litter rewetting
contributes up to 10% of the daily CO2 emission compared to perennial
rivers and streams, particularly in temperate climates. What this means
is that the contributions of intermittent rivers and streams should be
included in global carbon-cycling assessments," said Dr Waltham...
-- - -
Intermittent rivers, as the name suggests, sometimes stop flowing and
can dry completely. Although far less studied than permanent rivers,
they could represent half of the world's river network and, in response
to climate change and increasing water demands, may come to dominate the
landscape in some regions.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180615094839.htm
[East Asia Forum]
*A storm of climate change migration is brewing in South Asia
<http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2018/06/17/a-storm-of-climate-change-migration-is-brewing-in-south-asia/>*
17 June 2018
Authors: Simrit Kaur and Harpreet Kaur, University of Delhi
With climate change and the associatedwarmer temperatures
<https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf>already
altering the timings and patterns ofbird
<http://%20https/www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/climate-change-and-avian-population-ecology-in-22147741>migrations,
climate change-induced human migration is not far behind. Estimates
suggest that by 2050 there are likely to be between25 million and 1
billion <https://www.iom.int/complex-nexus#estimates>environmental
migrants in the world, with a major proportion of these originating
fromlow and lower-middle income countries
<https://www.oxfam.org.uk/media-centre/press-releases/2017/11/people-in-poorer-countries-five-times-more-likely-to-be-displaced-by-extreme-weather>.
South Asia
<http://siteresources.worldbank.org/SOUTHASIAEXT/Resources/Publications/448813-1231439344179/5726136-1259944769176/SAR_Climate_Change_Full_Report_November_2009.pdf>is
particularly vulnerable to climate change. Nearly half of the region's
population lives in areas that are projected to becomemoderate to severe
climate hotspots
<http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/South%20Asia%27s%20Hotspots.pdf>by
2050.Unhealthy temperatures
<http://time.com/4884648/climate-change-india-temperatures/>andvariable
precipitation patterns
<https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap24_FINAL.pdf>have
contributed to declines in agricultural production, productivity and
food security. Natural calamities such as floods, tsunamis and
earthquakes have increased the susceptibility of the region's already
vulnerable population.
Migration has emerged as an importantsurvival and adaptation strategy
<http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/>. InBangladesh
<https://www.iom.int/migrant-stories/climate-change-and-displacement-bangladesh-silent-crisis>alone,
15 million people are expected to be displaced due to the environmental
degradation of thecountry's coastal zone
<https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/environmental_degradation_nexus_in_south_asia.pdf>.
The bulk offorced climate-induced migration
<https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/project-document/64546/43181-reg-tar.pdf>has
involved themost vulnerable
<http://journals.brandonu.ca/jrcd/article/view/1177/289>.
Themajor migration corridors
<http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0024/002494/249459e.pdf>in South Asia
are between Bangladesh-India, Afghanistan-Pakistan, India-Pakistan and
Nepal-India. In 2015, more than 85 per cent ofmigrants in South Asia
<http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/estimates2/estimates15.shtml,%20http:/publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/wmr_2018_en.pdf>originated
from other countries in the region. There are currently about 3,230,025
and 810,172 migrants from Bangladesh and Nepal respectivelyin India
<http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/03/23/the-changing-climate-of-bangladeshi-migration-to-india/>.
Pakistan has about 2,326,275 Afghani migrants. With current levels of
transboundary migration already high, it is difficult to decipher the
number of these who are climate-induced migrants. As such, climate
change has remained largely invisible in discussions about migration.
Empirical evidence
<https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/7aed/090a3441dc28cb2c369b2de420acf3ea5ce1.pdf;%20ftp:/ftp.unibocconi.it/pub/RePEc/bcu/papers/iefewp100.pdf;%20http:/services.feem.it/userfiles/attach/20151131331234NDL2015-087.pdf>suggests
that environmental degradation is an important factor in pushing
migration, particularly in less developed countries. With climate change
already impacting the availability of water, food and arable land in
host countries, transboundary migration is expected to trigger conflicts
and exacerbate tensions. Migration also contributes to ethnic tensions,
discords, distrust and the demolition of social capital.
For instance, many illegal Bangladeshi immigrants are seeking employment
in India. This is leading to rising Indian intolerance towards
Bangladeshis, especially in Assam and West Bengal. Tensions are also
brewing between Bangladeshi migrants and the ethnic Bodo group in Assam.
The presence of a large number ofAfghan refugees
<http://www.atimes.com/article/afghan-refugees-peril-tensions-escalate-pakistan/>in
Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is seen by the Pakistani military as a
security risk that aggravates drug trafficking, smuggling and terrorist
activities. Followingthe 2015 earthquake in Nepal
<https://www.indiatimes.com/news/despite-all-the-help-during-the-2015-nepal-earthquake-here-s-why-we-are-losing-the-trust-of-our-neighbours-254829.html>,
agitation by the Madhesis (an ethnic group of Indian origin) in Nepal
contributed to nation-wide political turmoil.
The presence of Nepali migrants in Bhutan and India, Sri Lankan Tamils
in India and Chakmas in Bangladesh have increased security issues for
these countries.South Asia
<https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/10157/566100BRI0EP310Box353729B01PUBLIC1.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y>is
already considered the second most violent place on earth after Iraq.
In2016 <https://www.prio.org/Data/Armed-Conflict/UCDP-PRIO/>, about 20
per cent of all conflicts in the world took place in this volatile
region and resulted in about 22 per cent of total conflict-related
deaths. Climate-induced migration will worsen these existing tensions.
Cross-border migration also impacts the psyche of migrants. For
instance, Pakistan has often used pressure tactics to repatriate Afghan
refugees that include imposing insecure legal statuses, threatening to
deport asylum seekers in the winter, enforcing arbitrary detentions and
conducting nocturnal police raids.
The large-scaletrafficking of women and children
<https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1913316>across borders in the region is
another matter of grave concern. Barring Afghanistan,no other South
Asian <http://www.fmreview.org/non-signatories.html>country has signed
the 1951 UN Convention relating to the Status of Refugees and its 1967
Protocol.
Climate-induced migration necessitates the acknowledgement of two
issues. First, there areno official definitions of climate-induced
migration
<https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/resource-documents/10996.pdf>or
displacement at theinternational level
<http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/12/08/more-un-action-needed-on-climate-change-displacement/>.
Second, the negligibledata
<http://www.actionaid.org/news/climate-change-will-cause-migration-south-asia-escalate-uncontrollably-coming-years-warn-three->on
climate-induced migration inhibits the design of effective resilience
and adaptation policies, especially for trans-boundary migration. It is
thus important toinvest in data and analysis
<https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2018/03/20/climate-change-could-force-over-140-million-to-migrate-within-countries-by-2050/>to
understand migration patterns and trajectories.
Countries mustembed climate-induced migration
<https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/29461/GroundswellPN2.pdf?sequence=7&isAllowed=y>in
their development planning.Bangladesh's
<https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/environmental_degradation_nexus_in_south_asia.pdf>Disaster
Management Act 2012, which mentions the rehabilitation of displaced
people, andSri Lanka's
<https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/environmental_degradation_nexus_in_south_asia.pdf> proposed
relocation of coastal communities are steps in the right direction. But
more needs to be done. Countries need inclusive frameworks that focus on
adaptability, such as building climate-smart infrastructure and
addressing declines in agricultural yields. To achieve this, South Asian
countries need to effectively manage their irrigation projects and
adoptland-based greenhouse gas mitigation policies
<http://www.fao.org/3/a-i6030e.pdf>involving agriculture, forestry
andother land uses
<https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter11.pdf>.
In thelong run
<https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/29461/GroundswellPN2.pdf?sequence=7&isAllowed=y>,
investing in human capital, diversifying income generating activities
and pushing towards less climate-vulnerable sectors (including non-farm
activities) would help combat migration.
While the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)
doesrecognise climate change
<http://www.nanseninitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/070715_FINAL_BACKGROUND_PAPER_SOUTH_ASIA_REGIONAL_CONSULTATION_screen.pdf,%20http:/ijlljs.in/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Human_Migration.pdf>as
a challenge, migration concerns are only scantly mentioned in the 2014
SAARC Kathmandu Declaration and 2005 SAARC Social Charter. It is
important tobuild solidarity
<http://www.actionaid.org/news/climate-change-will-cause-migration-south-asia-escalate-uncontrollably-coming-years-warn-three->and
increase cooperation among the South Asian nations that face common
challenges. Developing early warning systems, regional food banks and
amenable solutions to water disputes would enhance resilience and reduce
forced migration. It would also help in improving the public's attitudes
towards migrant populations and in resolving the social tensions caused
by climate migration.
/Simrit Kaur is a Professor of Economics and Public Policy//and the
Principal of Shri Ram College of Commerce, University of Delhi, India./
/Harpeet Kaur is Assistant Professor in Sri Guru Gobind Singh College of
Commerce at the University of Delhi, India./
http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2018/06/17/a-storm-of-climate-change-migration-is-brewing-in-south-asia/
[Opinion deep background]
*The legal fight to leave the dirtiest fossil fuels in the ground
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/jun/14/the-legal-fight-to-leave-the-dirtiest-fossil-fuels-in-the-ground>*
John Abraham
Enbridge wants to build a new tar sands pipeline
Thu 14 Jun 2018
Tar sands are the dirtiest fossil fuels. These are low-quality heavy
tar-like oils that are mined from sand or rock. Much of the mining
occurs in Alberta Canada, but it is also mined elsewhere, in lesser
quantities.
Tar sands are the worst. Not only are they really hard to get out of the
ground, requiring enormous amounts of energy; not only are they
difficult to transport and to refine; not only are they more polluting
than regular oils; they even have a by-product called "petcoke" that's
used in power plants, but is dirtier than regular coal.
This stuff is worse than regular oil, worse than coal, worse than
anything. Anyone who is serious about climate change cannot agree to
mine and burn tar sands. To maintain climate change below critical
thresholds, tar sands need to be left in the ground.
This fact is what motivated me to testify to the Minnesota Public
Utilities Commission last November, to inform my state's ruling
commission about the impact of tar sands on the climate. Canadian energy
company Enbridge has petitioned to put a pipeline through my state to
carry this dirty tar to refining sites on the coast.
The proposed pipeline is called "Line 3." The pipeline would carry
approximately 760,000 barrels per day - the new pipeline would make it
easier and cheaper for the oil companies to transport tar sands and
consequently, would boost their bottom line. We already move over two
million barrels per day through Minnesota in Enbridge pipelines. This
new pipeline would encourage them to extract and sell more tar sands.
So, how much pollution would this pipeline carry? 170bn kilograms of
carbon dioxide each year. The emissions are equal to approximately 50
coal power plants. These are huge numbers, but more importantly,
approval of pipelines like this make it more likely that all of the tar
sands in Alberta will be extracted. If that happens, global temperatures
will increase by approximately 0.65°F (0.36°C). An astonishing number -
approximately three decades worth of global warming.
If you care about climate change, then it is not logically possible to
approve any pipeline or other infrastructure that may further worsen our
climate. We are already screwing up the climate enough as it is.
The decision-making body in my state has heard climate arguments before.
In fact, in 2016, the same body ruled against the coal giant Peabody.
That ruling decided that fossil fuel companies low-balled the social
cost of carbon. Back then, Peabody brought in a group of climate
contrarians to argue their nonsense. My colleagues and I were able to
convince the Commission that the facts were clear - we are causing
climate change, and our decisions today can make tomorrow's climate
worse. This ruling was used when evaluating the social cost of carbon
pollution for a new Line 3 pipeline. A judge found that emissions from
this project would impose $287bn in social costs over 30 years.
In this case, the oil company Enbridge did not invite any contrarian
climate scientists. They simply focused on arguments that a new pipeline
will be safer to operate (fewer spills) and lessen other issues like
rail traffic. They effectively conceded the climate arguments.
The decision will be revealed later this month. But already, an
Administrative Law Judge has given a recommendation that the new
pipeline be built, but in the exact same location as the current pipe.
While this recommendation presents large costs to Enbridge, it
completely misses the science. The judge's opinion made no mention of
climate change. How can a decision on extracting tar sands be made
without considering climate effects?
Just last week, the staff of the commission also recommended
construction of the new pipeline. They too omitted climate change from
their decision.
I was proud to be able to stand alongside tomorrow's leaders. Courageous
youth became parties to the litigation and helped arrange the testimony
of various climate experts like myself. One of the youth involved in the
litigation, Frances Wetherall, summarized her view and told me why she
was involved in the case.
With every barrel of oil burned, my future children and grandchildren's
chances of a long and happy life diminish. I can't stand by while Big
Oil profits off the destruction of future generations.
Whether or not these youth prevail in this case, their courage,
intelligence, and drive give me hope for a better future.
I am hopeful that the commission dismisses these opinions. It is clear
to me that not only must tar sands be kept in the ground, but actions to
assist in their extraction make one complicit. I believe that decisions
have consequences and we must take responsibility for our decisions. We
cannot say "climate matters" and then facilitate tar sands extractions.
We also cannot say "we didn't know" when our children ask us why we made
poor decisions.
I would hate to be a fossil fuel lawyer, or executive, or lawmaker who
fights for climate destruction today and has to justify his actions to
his kids tomorrow. History will be a very harsh judge to them; but of
course it will be too late for the rest of us.
I've said this before and I will say it again, if we cannot say no to
tar sands, what can we say no to?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/jun/14/the-legal-fight-to-leave-the-dirtiest-fossil-fuels-in-the-ground
[big changes]
*Only 'rapid and far-reaching' changes will stop global warming
exceeding 1.5C target by 2040, leaked UN report reveals
<https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-paris-agreement-global-warming-temperature-un-report-ipcc-a8400506.html>*
Draft paper presents 'moment of truth' to world leaders, say campaigners
Josh Gabbatiss Science Correspondent
Global warming will likely exceed the most ambitious target set by the
Paris climate agreement by around 2040, according to a draft United
Nations (UN) report.
In its strongest warning yet about the dangers of climate change, the
UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that only
"rapid and far-reaching" changes to the world economy would prevent
temperatures from rising 1.5C above pre-industrial times.
The report was obtained by Reuters, ahead of the publication of the
final version in October after it has been revised and approved by
governments.
Campaigners say "the moment of truth" has come for world leaders, who
will have to take quick and decisive action in order to avoid the most
harmful effects of climate change...
- - - - -
"As was clear from a number of scientific studies that were published
recently, there is now a lot of evidence that the risks of climate
change are significantly lower when temperature increase is limited to
1.5C, compared to an increase of 2C," said Bert Metz, fellow at the
European Climate Foundation and former IPCC co-chair.
"This holds for the overall economic damage, loss of biodiversity,
health impacts of fossil fuel associated air pollution, sea level rise -
particularly over the next hundreds of years - and many other aspects of
society and nature."
"The moment of truth has come for our leaders," said Greenpeace
International executive director Jennifer Morgan.
"They can achieve their Paris commitment of capping temperature rise
below 1.5C with 'rapid and far-reaching' actions.
"The feasibility of achieving the Paris goals is a political choice.
This choice must be driven by a moral obligation that binds us together.
Through international cooperation, real ambition and working with
communities, our leaders still have the time to do what they must."
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-paris-agreement-global-warming-temperature-un-report-ipcc-a8400506.html
[not surprising]
*Nasa full of 'fear and anxiety' since Trump took office, ex-employee
says
<https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/may/30/nasa-climate-change-sensitive-subject-since-trump-former-employee>*
Those still at the agency fear climate science funding will be cut since
it is now considered a 'sensitive subject'
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/may/30/nasa-climate-change-sensitive-subject-since-trump-former-employee
*This Day in Climate History - June 18, 2005
<http://www.bradshow.com/Archives/BradShow_061805_Hour1_24k.mp3>- from
D.R. Tucker*
June 18, 2005: Investigative journalist Brad Friedman interviews White
House whistleblower Rick Piltz regarding the Bush Administration's
assault on science.
http://www.bradshow.com/Archives/BradShow_061805_Hour1_24k.mp3
http://www.bradshow.com/Archives/BradShow_061805_Hour4_24k.mp3
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