[TheClimate.Vote] June 23, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Sat Jun 23 10:47:12 EDT 2018
/June 23, 2018/
[Weather Channel slick video report - passive info]
USA NATIONAL FORECAST
*Here's What You Can Expect For Temperatures and Precipitation the Rest
of Summer
<https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2018-06-20-temperature-precipitation-outlook-united-states-july-august>*
At a Glance
Warmer-than-average conditions may give way to below-average
temperatures in parts of the nation's northern tier July-August.
Many areas in the West will experience above-average temperatures for
the rest of summer.
Rainfall could be above average in the Southwest and mid-Atlantic
through September.
For the rest of the summer, temperatures in portions of the central and
eastern states may start out warmer-than-average but then transition to
below average, while much of the West is expected to see above-average
warmth, according to the latest outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM
Business.
- - - -
In July, parts of the nation's northern tier and the West are the most
favored areas for above-average warmth, including a swath from the Great
Lakes westward to the northern Plains and the northern Rockies, and then
southward into Nevada and southern California.
- - - - -
Many other areas in the eastern half of the nation are forecast to see
temperatures near or slightly above average for July. The exceptions are
parts of the Gulf Coast and Florida where it may be slightly-cooler-than
average, although typical summertime warmth and humidity will still be
in place.
The expectation of warmer-than-average conditions across the northern
tier of the U.S. in July is because a positive North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO) pattern will be in place, which is indicative of a
strong polar vortex.
"If we look at the temperature pattern during July in a positive NAO
pattern we can see a warm north, cool-south pattern. It is difficult to
go against this idea at this point," said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief
meteorologist with The Weather Company.
As we transition to August, the potential emergence of El Nino and its
impact on tropical activity in the northwest Pacific Ocean may influence
the jet stream pattern downstream in the United States, and therefore,
temperatures as well.
"We've cooled off August a bit in the East as we expect the emerging El
Niño forcing to continue to strengthen and enable an active late-summer
period in the northwest Pacific tropics," Crawford said.
As a result, the Great Lakes and upper Midwest are expected to see
below-average temperatures in August, with near or slightly below
average temperatures in many other eastern locations. In the West, the
opposite is expected with widespread hotter-than-average conditions
forecast.
Looking ahead to September, there are no major areas of above or
below-average temperatures forecast at this time. A large swath of the
nation is forecast to see near or slightly above-average temperatures.
South Georgia and Florida are the most likely locations for
above-average warmth, and parts of the Southwest may be slightly
cooler-than-average.
*Rainfall Outlook Next Three Months**
**The mid-Atlantic, Southwest and the central Rockies are forecast to
see above-average precipitation the next three months, according to an
outlook from NOAA.*
In the Southwest and Rockies, monsoonal moisture and the remnants of
eastern Pacific tropical systems may increase rainfall chances
July-September, tipping the scale towards wetter-than-average conditions.
Drier-than-average conditions are most likely July-September from the
eastern half of Texas to the lower-Mississippi Valley. The Pacific
Northwest is also forecast to see below-average rainfall, though summer
is a typically dry time of year for that region.
Keep in mind, these outlooks are overall trends. A cold front or an
upper ridge of high pressure can lead to a brief period of colder or
warmer weather, respectively. The same front or area of high pressure
can bring a brief period of enhanced precipitation or dry spell that may
or may not be indicative of the overall trend we're anticipating.
- - - - -
[NOAA - interactive government report site - same info as above - just
more clicks to find it]
*Climate Prediction Center - Monthly to Seasonal Climate Outlooks
<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/>*
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is responsible for issuing seasonal
climate outlook maps for one to thirteen months in the future. In
addition, the CPC issues extended range outlook maps for 6-10 and 8-14
days as well as several special outlooks, such as degree day, drought
and soil moisture, and a forecast for daily ultraviolet (UV) radiation
index. Many of the outlook maps have an accompanying technical
discussion. The CPC's outlook and forecast products complement the short
range weather forecasts issued by other components of the National
Weather Service (e.g. local Weather Forecast Offices, and National
Centers for Environmental Prediction). These weather and climate
products comprise the National Weather Service's Suite of Forecast
Products.
* *Monthly to Seasonal Climate Outlooks*
<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/month_to_season_outlooks.shtml>
The CPC issues maps showing the probabilities of temperature,
precipitation and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) deviation from
normal for the next month and three month periods. These outlooks
are issued from 2 weeks to 13 months in advance, for the lower 48
states and Hawaii and other Pacific Islands. In addition, seasonal
climate outlooks show average temperature (degrees Fahrenheit) and
precipitation (inches) for the lower 48 states by climate regions,
andprobability of exceedance outlook
<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/poe_index.php?lead=1&var=t>.
* *Extended Range Outlooks*
<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/extended_range_outlooks.shtml>
The CPC issues*6-10 Day*
<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/>and*8-14
Day
<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/>*Outlook
maps showing probabilities of temperature and precipitation
departing from normal, with an accompanying technical discussion.
An*excessive Heat Index Outlook*
<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/heat/hi_610.php>(April-September)
and*Wind Chill Index Outlook*
<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/cold/wc_610.php>(October-March)
for 6-10 days are made every day.
* *Special Outlook Products*
<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/special_outlooks_products.shtml>
The CPC also issues a Palmer Drought Outlook, Weekly Degree Day
Outlook, 14-day Calculated Soil Moisture Outlook, Probability of
Exceedance Outlook, daily UV Index Forecast, and verification of
seasonal outlooks.
* *National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Products*
<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/NWS_forecasts.shtml>
The National Weather Service and its 121 local forecast offices
issue local weather forecasts, and watches and warnings to protect
life and property from acute short-term threats due to severe
weather events. Another of the many products available is
the*GFS-Based 8-Day Guidance*
<http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/mrfmex.txt>.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
[video report too]
*U.S. Is Out of Sync With World on Climate Change, Canada Says
<https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-21/trump-is-out-of-touch-and-control-in-climate-fight-canada-says>*
By Ewa Krukowska and Jonathan Stearns
June 21, 2018,
Canada has an environmental message for Donald Trump: you can't stop the
global campaign against climate change and you will hurt the U.S. by
abandoning the battle.
Canadian Environment and Climate Change Minister Catherine McKenna said
countries around the world are forging ahead with measures to reduce
greenhouse gases, unfazed by Trump's planned withdrawal from a landmark
United Nations deal to counter global warming. Canada, the European
Union and China are leading the charge, which will bring businesses big
rewards, she said.
"I hate to say this, but I don't want to overestimate the importance of
the U.S.," McKenna said in an interview on Thursday in Brussels, where
she attended a gathering with her EU and Chinese counterparts. "The
world is moving forward because we need to do that for our kids and
there's a huge economic opportunity."
The U.S. turn inward under Trump and his upending of American foreign
policies ranging from trade to security have left the rest of the world
rushing to fill a void and create new alliances.
- - - - -
"Every country is now stepping up and saying what they're going to do,
but you need the engine of the Paris Agreement," McKenna said. "It's
extremely important and business needs to see that."
China, the EU and Canada together accounted for 40 percent of global
emissions of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, in 2017, according
to the latest BP Plc statistical review. China, the top polluter, had a
28 percent share of worldwide discharges, followed by the U.S. with 15
percent.
While Trump is depriving the U.S. of a climate leadership role at the
federal level, other American actors are helping to ensure the country
doesn't miss out altogether on the worldwide shift to cleaner energy,
according to McKenna.
"When the president said he was pulling out of the Paris Agreement, you
saw U.S. business leaders step up, U.S. governors, cities step up. And
citizens," she said. "Is it sad and unfortunate that the U.S. is not
there? Sure, but we can still do it. No one country can stop progress."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-21/trump-is-out-of-touch-and-control-in-climate-fight-canada-says
[Republicans want a tax, with strings - rather with ropes attached]
*Energy lobbyists have a new PAC to push for a carbon tax. Wait, what?
<https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/6/22/17487488/carbon-tax-dividend-trent-lott-john-breaux>*
The oil and gas industry is trying to get ahead of the climate policy curve.
By David Roberts
This policy is not bipartisan in any meaningful sense, it is not likely
to be political popular, it's not all that great as policy to being
with, and it is naive to see it as a gambit that arises primarily, or
even tangentially, from environmental concerns. It is first and foremost
a bid by oil and gas and nuclear to secure the gentlest and most
predictable possible energy transition...
- - - -
This new PAC is a pure industry effort, a coalition of energy groups
from almost every big energy sector except coal, backed by
industry-friend lobbyists...
- - - -
Overall, it makes for an extremely volatile and unpredictable policy
environment — or rather, dozens of disparate policy environments. And
oil and gas companies know that Trump won't be in power forever.
Democrats will return to federal power eventually, and when they do,
they will have an appetite for bold climate policy.
Basically, oil and gas sees a big wave of climate policies building.
That is what [Trent] Lott meant when he told the Wall Street Journal
<https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-conservative-political-group-to-push-for-u-s-carbon-tax-1529444820>
that "the tide is turning on the realization that something needs to be
done in this area." He didn't mean "we've been doing some reading and
realized we were terribly wrong." He meant "the jig is up."
Thus the inclusion of two key provisions in the AFCD proposal.
First, EPA regulations meant to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, like
the Clean Power Plan, would be revoked, allegedly rendered unnecessary.
(It's unclear exactly which regulations are included.) And second,
energy companies would be given immunity to climate-based lawsuits like
severalcurrently underway
<https://www.vox.com/2018/5/25/17394468/climate-lawsuits-san-francisco-oakland-alsup-exxon-bp>,
a provision climate activists are certain to oppose...
- - - -
Under any economy-wide carbon tax, it will be coal that's hit first and
hardest. And what's bad for coal is good for natural gas, at least in
the short-term. Especially absent further policy, a price on carbon will
leave oil quite healthy for quite some time. Oil and gas don't have to
be faster than the bear — they just have to be faster than coal...
- - - -
Making things tidy and predictable for giant energy companies is just
not a top-tier consideration, much less a starting point.
Democrats don't often act like it, but they are right on climate change.
They're on the right side of history. That's why fossil fuel companies
are reaching out to, ahem, "end the impasse." It's what you do when
you're losing.
Dems should have the courage of their convictions, support the policies
they believe most able to pass and most likely to work, and begin
negotiations there, not where fossil fuel lobbyists draw the line.
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/6/22/17487488/carbon-tax-dividend-trent-lott-john-breaux
[Hansen is the wise grandfather]
*James Hansen Today: A Warning on Antarctica
<https://climatecrocks.com/2018/06/22/james-hansen-today-a-warning-on-antarctica/>*
by greenman3610
30 Years after prophetic predictions of global change unfolding today,
Jim Hansen is still sounding warnings - climate change may not happen in
a slow steady process. Recent studies showing accelerating Antarctic
melt seem to be supportive of his science. Given his track record, can
we afford to ignore him again?
Video Jim Hansen on the Rate of Ice Sheet Melt
<https://youtu.be/wdw37BeBi_4>
James Hansen's predictions of global climate change in the 1980s were
uncannily accurate.
Should we be taking his latest warnings of Antarctic melt with the same
seriousness? Most recent research confirms very sharp uptick in
Antarctic melt.
https://youtu.be/wdw37BeBi_4
- - - -
Video Jim Hansen: The Last Time Ice Sheets Melted..
<https://youtu.be/PgAcnbHINwk>
Published on Jun 15, 2018
The record of past sea level rise shows us that ice sheets can melt
quickly - so quickly that we can't resolve the lag in the record.
Reason for extreme concern as we change the atmosphere and warm the planet.
https://climatecrocks.com/2018/06/22/james-hansen-today-a-warning-on-antarctica/
[Submit, commit]
*Solutions Search
<https://solutionsearch.org/contest/climate-change-needs-behavior-change>*
Are you using creative approaches to changing behaviors in order to
tackle climate change? Have you helped people adopt more sustainable
lifestyles and lower their carbon footprint?
Rare, Conservation International, National Geographic, The Nature
Conservancy , The United Nations Development Programme and the World
Wildlife Fund are teaming up on a global search to identify successful
efforts that are inspiring and enabling people to change the way they
consume – the way they cook, eat, dispose of waste, purchase goods,
travel, and more.
Submit your efforts to Solution Search for the chance to win $25,000,
gain international exposure, and expand your potential partner and donor
networks! Apply by August 7, 2018.
Visit:https://solutionsearch.org/contest/climate-change-needs-behavior-change
What people eat, what they buy and what they use contributes directly to
climate change. In just eight months, humans consume what the earth can
sustainably produce in a single year. Nearly two-thirds of global
emissions are linked to both direct and indirect forms of human
consumption. Promoting sustainable behaviors holds enormous potential
for reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and protecting the Earth on
which we all depend.
What could these solutions look like? Strategies and efforts that apply
behavior change insights to inspire and enable people to:
-Increase plant-rich diets
-Reduce end-user waste
-Increase adoption of clean cookstoves
-Increase demand for products such as locally-grown staple trees and
plants, crops grown through regenerative or conservation agriculture,
kelp or certified sustainable wood
-Reduce consumption of energy, water or relevant products, such as paper
or cotton
-And otherwise reduce greenhouse gas emitting behaviors amongst
individuals, households and communities
By participating in Solution Search, you not only have the chance of
winning funding and international recognition for your efforts – you can
also change the world.
We have categorized behavior adoption strategies into three core approaches:
Emotional appeals: Unleash the power of emotions to drive change
Social incentives: Change social norms to influence adoption
Choice architecture: Utilize context and timing to support change
Help us demonstrate that just as people are the cause of environmental
challenges, they are also the solution.
Submit an entry, or if you know of someone doing great work, you can
nominate them. Visit the link below today!
https://solutionsearch.org/contest/climate-change-needs-behavior-change
[art has always exhibited]
*Taking The Erratic Temperature Of A Climate Change Art Exhibit
<https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/climate-change-art-exhibit_us_5b28059ae4b0f0b9e9a3bef8>*
Storm King Art Center's new installations offer varying degrees of
insight into life on a radically changing planet.
By Alexander C. Kaufman
NEW WINDSOR, N.Y. - When the guilt and dread set in, I realized I'd
found the good stuff.
The eyes hit me first. An array of 100 crimson, gold and azure bird eyes
- all representing species identified as threatened or endangered by
climate change in a 2014 Audubon Society study - deliver their judgment
on humankind.
About a quarter-mile away came what looked like towers of skulls, but
were really stalagmites of bone-white tambourines rising from an island
on a pond. The title of that piece, "The peo-ple cried mer-cy in the
storm," with hyphens drawing out the words, struck me as eerie. It was
taken from a 1928 hymn by religious songwriter Judge Jackson written two
years after the Great Miami Hurricane, which killed hundreds of black
migrant workers.
The two installations, haunting attempts to grapple with a manmade
cataclysm that looks increasingly inevitable, were the highlights of
"Indicators: Artists on Climate Change," the newest series at the Storm
King Art Center, a 500-acre sculpture park in New York's Hudson Valley.
The exhibition, which opened May 19, offers meditations on a warming
planet from more than a dozen artists.
Unfortunately, much of the exhibit's work comes closer to the level of
contemplation achieved by downloading a mindfulness app.
There's a "living sculpture" of 15 flower beds equipped with four sets
of solar panels that power an irrigation system. It's a nice garden with
a clever approach to maintenance. But as a commentary on climate change,
it feels about 15 years late and a bit sloppy. Its flora is billed as
native to New York but includes flowers that originated in Asia and
Europe. Solar panels are as tritely synonymous with climate change as
polar bears. Maybe a greenhouse could have encased the garden, slowly
simulating the effect of rising temperatures in the region.
Down the hill is a piece comprising more than a dozen banners, staked in
a circle, with embarrassingly cheesy wordplay and cheap alliteration:
"Salute the Superstorms," "Grieve the Grid," "Find a Mole Model," "Fete
the Fungus," "See the Sea Levels."
If that isn't enough of a flashback to a freshman-year writing class, a
short walk brings you to a highway traffic sign, the kind that cautions
drivers about roadwork ahead. Flashing in the lights: "Neanderthals 'R'
Us," "Humankindness," "Warning: Hurricane Human," "We Are The Asteroid."
At the end of the exhibit stands the globe of death - yes, a metal stunt
cage in which, and get ready to have your mind blown, a fossil-fueled
vehicle is driven at increasingly reckless speeds.
These pieces felt like amateurish epiphanies - shallow,
#Resistance-type recognitions of a problem that was a global crisis long
before President Poorly-Trained Circus Organgutan pulled out of the
Paris Agreement or Environmental Protection Agency chief Scott Pruitt
began advancing pro-polluter policies. That was particularly frustrating
because I was looking for something more.
After years of reporting on climate change, reading the increasingly
dire warnings from scientists and talking to policymakers whose
solutions remain blindly divorced from that reality, I've found myself
in the past year seeking the kind of spiritual perspective that comes
from creative reflection on this thing that's happening to us.
It started last year when I read Kim Stanley Robinson's New York 2140, a
dystopian novel depicting life after climate catastrophe - a reminder
that life can flourish even in the Venice-like canals that might
overtake the Lower Manhattan neighborhood where part of my family once
lived. Earlier this month, I finished Claire Vaye Watkins' Gold Fame
Citrus, which lyrically envisions the rise of new plant and animal
species, alien in their adaptations to a changed world. Now I'm reading
Omar El-Akkad's American War, a bleak depiction of an ecologically
devastated nation in the throes of civil war.
The art world has produced some visual gut punches in the dozen or so
years since Bill McKibben, the renowned environmentalist and 350.org
founder, implored artists to make more work focused on climate change.
Isaac Cordal's street art installation of tiny men in suits debating
global warming while neck deep in water should be remembered as a
masterpiece of political commentary. It's easy to imagine the day when
Lorenzo Quinn's "Support," two hands reaching out of a Venice canal to
hold up a building, will seem clairvoyant.
Back at Storm King, a few more scientifically literate pieces help to
redeem the exhibit. Hara Woltz, a New York-based artist and conservation
ecologist currently doing fieldwork in the Solomon Islands, built a
functioning weather station that collects climate data and is encircled
by cylinders arranged at slightly different heights to represent
predictions about sea level rise and Arctic sea ice melt.
Mark Dion's life-size replica of a disordered scientific lab in a wooden
cabin, dubbed "Field Station for the Melancholy Marine Biologist," was
originally shown at a gallery in New Orleans. Here it has been recast
with ecological specimens from the surrounding area.
A time of radical change requires art that asks radical questions: "What
does it mean to say goodbye? Whom do we grieve? How do we live with
ourselves?" Yet it feels like we're still hung up on "Why is this
happening?"
The exhibit is open until Nov. 11.
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/climate-change-art-exhibit_us_5b28059ae4b0f0b9e9a3bef8
*This Day in Climate History - June 23, 1988
<http://www.nytimes.com/1988/06/24/us/global-warming-has-begun-expert-tells-senate.html>;
2008
<https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/twenty-years-later-tippin_b_108766>
- from D.R. Tucker*
June 23, 1988: NASA scientist James Hansen warns the US Senate about the
risks of human-caused climate change.
http://www.nytimes.com/1988/06/24/us/global-warming-has-begun-expert-tells-senate.html
June 23, 2008:
In a Huffington Post piece marking the 20th anniversary of his
historic 1988 Senate testimony, NASA scientist James Hansen notes:
"Special interests have blocked transition to our renewable energy
future. Instead of moving heavily into renewable energies, fossil
companies choose to spread doubt about global warming, as tobacco
companies discredited the smoking-cancer link. Methods are
sophisticated, including disguised funding to shape school textbook
discussions.
"CEOs of fossil energy companies know what they are doing and are
aware of long-term consequences of continued business as usual. In
my opinion, these CEOs should be tried for high crimes against
humanity and nature. If their campaigns continue and 'succeed' in
confusing the public, I anticipate testifying against relevant CEOs
in future public trials."
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/twenty-years-later-tippin_b_108766
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