[TheClimate.Vote] June 25, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Mon Jun 25 09:47:24 EDT 2018
/June 25, 2018/
[live video Bears in rapids eat a salmon buffet]
*Bear Cam is Back <https://earther.com/bear-cam-is-back-1827055046>*
Live video on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UIA8xOVcOs
*Brooks Falls - Katmai National Park, Alaska powered by EXPLORE.org
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UIA8xOVcOs>*
Explore Bears & Bison
Started streaming on Jun 7, 2018
Brooks Falls in Alaska's Katmai National Park is the best place in the
world to watch brown bears feasting on salmon as they swim upstream to
spawn. Find out the best time to watch live and learn more about Katmai
and its brown bears on Explore.org @ https://goo.gl/fhMmQy.
EXPLORE is the largest live nature cam network on the planet. We bring
nature to you, raw, unscripted, and unedited. Enjoy the natural world as
it unfolds in real time in front of our cameras. EXPLORE.org takes you
from Kenya, Africa to the riverbanks of Katmai, Alaska and everywhere in
between.
Visit the full multicam experience: http://explore.org
Facebook: http://goo.gl/SFRAfX - Twitter: http://goo.gl/n03NNU
Be sure to visit and subscribe to all your favorite EXPLORE live-cam
channels.
Explore Main Channel https://goo.gl/9L2vjH
Explore Africa https://goo.gl/8GXlAz
Explore Bears & Bison https://goo.gl/bKBhR8
Explore Birds Bats Bees https://goo.gl/chM5Zp
Explore Cats Lions Tigers https://goo.gl/1m3vAd
Explore Farm Life https://goo.gl/KVU98J
Explore Dog Bless You https://goo.gl/F01N6i
Explore Oceans https://goo.gl/6lKaus
Explore Sunsets https://goo.gl/zfG1DI
Explore Zen Dens https://goo.gl/Id1WMF
https://earther.com/bear-cam-is-back-1827055046
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UIA8xOVcOs
https://earther.com/bear-cam-is-back-1827055046
[Wildfires]
*Firefighters out West prepare for what could be another busy summer
wildfire season
<https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/22/firefighters-out-west-prepare-for-what-could-be-another-busy-summer-wildfire-season.html>*
Firefighters in Western states are preparing for what could be another
difficult summer wildfire season.
Extreme heat along with drought conditions and more than 129 million
dead trees could pose a fire hazard.
Mock drills have been staged with fire crews in several Western states
in recent weeks.
As of Saturday, there were major wildfires burning in several states,
including Colorado, California and New Mexico.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/22/firefighters-out-west-prepare-for-what-could-be-another-busy-summer-wildfire-season.html
- - - -
[News, but If you lived nearby, you'd know already ]
*Hundreds Forced to Evacuate, Structures Destroyed as Wildfires Burn in
Northern California
<https://weather.com/news/news/2018-06-24-pawnee-fire-lake-county-california-wildfire>*
*Hundreds have been forced from their homes and several structures have
been damaged by the Pawnee Fire.**
**It's one of four fires burning in Northern California.**
**The largest blaze burned 5.5 square miles, but no buildings were
reported damaged.*
CAL FIRE says the blaze is being driven by low humidity, volatile winds
and high temperatures.
"Low humidity and gusty winds allowed wildfires in northern California
to spread rapidly Saturday," said weather.com meteorologist Chris Dolce.
"Increased humidity and cooler temperatures should help firefighters by
Monday."
No deaths or injuries have been reported.
https://weather.com/news/news/2018-06-24-pawnee-fire-lake-county-california-wildfire
[reported by Forbes magazine:]
*New Study Finds Climate Change Shareholder Resolutions Have No Impact
<https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblackmon/2018/06/24/new-study-finds-climate-based-shareholder-resolutions-have-no-impact/#3e19f6495dd1>*
A new study finds that the climate-based shareholder resolutions being
so actively pushed by proxy advisory firms and their Environmental,
Social and Governance (ESG)-based institutional investors have "no
statistically significant impact" on a company's bottom line, either
positive or negative. The study, funded by the National Association of
Manufacturers (NAM), was led by the highly-respected PHD economist
Joseph Kalt, Senior Economist at Compass Lexecon and is the Ford
Foundation Professor (Emeritus) of International Political Economy at
the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblackmon/2018/06/24/new-study-finds-climate-based-shareholder-resolutions-have-no-impact/#3e19f6495dd1
[what Barrons says]
*How Jeremy Grantham Is Taking On Climate Change
<https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-jeremy-grantham-is-taking-on-climate-change-1529712002>*
Jeremy Grantham, No. 7 on our list, is widely known as the value
investor who correctly predicted the 2000 and 2008 downturns. But he is
also a force in increasing awareness of climate change.
At the Morningstar conference last week, Grantham shook his audience
with a narrative that went like this: The increase in surface
temperatures is accelerating. Air carries more water vapor, so downpours
are more likely. But so are extreme weather events like floods,
droughts, wildfires. And though renewable-energy costs are falling,
fossil fuels will make up half of all energy consumption by 2050. That
means climate change will continue.
So prepare yourselves, he told them, for a two-degree scenario. In fact,
prepare for three degrees. (Signatories to the Paris climate accord,
from which the U.S. will withdraw in 2020, have agreed to hold the
increase in the global average temperature to well below two degrees
Celsius above preindustrial levels.)
Climate change will have a terrible effect on food supplies. The United
Nations forecasts that the world population, now about 7.6 billion, will
reach 11.2 billion in 2100. The planet's "last best hope," Grantham
related, is that fertility rates will drop. But in Africa, population
growth is exploding-expected to nearly quadruple by 2100.
At the same time, arable land is shrinking. This growing population
simply cannot be fed. All of those rains in the Midwest mean soil is
eroding. In Iowa, the soil depth has halved since intensive cultivation
began in 1850. As a result, crop yields are expected to fall sharply.
Temperature swings and droughts will ruin harvests.
"I ended my harangue by saying, 'I want you to go back to your
investment firms, cash in your career chips, and get your bosses to go
greener and lean on their portfolio companies to be greener-then you'll
be able to look your grandchildren in the eye,' " Grantham recalled last
week.
"The great weakness of U.S. capitalism, particularly at the corporate
level, is the fixation on the short term," he continued. Capitalism
"does a million things much better than a command economy, except for
sustainability. Corporations simply aren't paid to give up today's
profits in favor of the longer-term profits. And sustainability gets
right to the heart of long-term thinking."
[Oh No! Not NOAA!]
*A leading U.S. climate agency may lose its climate focus
<https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2018/06/24/a-leading-us-climate-agency-may-lose-its-climate-focus.html>*
By JOHN SCHWARTZThe New York Times
Sun., June 24, 2018
The Trump administration appears to be planning to shift the mission of
one of the most important federal science agencies that works on climate
change - away from climate change.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which is
part of the Department of Commerce, operates a constellation of
earth-observing satellites. Because of its work on climate science data
collection and analysis, it has become one of the most important U.S.
agencies for making sense of the warming planet. But that focus may
shift, according to a slide presentation at a Department of Commerce
meeting by Tim Gallaudet, the acting head of the agency.
In the presentation, which included descriptions of the past and present
missions for the agency, the past mission listed three items, starting
with "to understand and predict changes in climate, weather, oceans and
coasts." In contrast, for the present mission, the word "climate" was
gone, and the first line was replaced with "to observe, understand and
predict atmospheric and ocean conditions."
The presentation also included a new emphasis: "To protect lives and
property, empower the economy, and support homeland and national security."
NOAA's sprawling mission includes the National Weather Service and
management of the nation's fisheries. Its use of satellites and
scientific research to understand climate change has been an enormous
part of its work in forecasting the cycles of phenomena such as El Nino
and tracking hurricanes, as well as forecasting the coastal effects of
rising seas.
While the past mission for the agency was focused on resiliency,
including "healthy ecosystems, communities and economies that are
resilient in the face of change," the present mission, according the
presentation, replaced that with a focus on "a safe, secure and growing
economy empowered through accurate, reliable and timely environmental
information."...
- - - - - - -
The presentation by Gallaudet, an oceanographer and retired Navy rear
admiral, was part of a Department of Commerce "Vision Setting Summit."
While it is common for agencies to shift priorities under a new
administration, sweeping changes to the core mission of an agency are
unusual.
It is unclear whether a large shift in the federal science agency's
direction could be accomplished without extensive action by Congress.
The agency's current structure and mission are defined by 127
congressional mandates, and Congress passes the agency's budget.
Changing the agency's focus would require an extensive rule-making
process - a process that has proved troublesome to the Trump administration.
Andrew A. Rosenberg, a former NOAA scientist and senior executive who
now serves as director of the Center for Science and Democracy at the
Union of Concerned Scientists and who has seen the presentation
material, issued a statement responding to the NOAA presentation that
called the move "a shocking change in the mission of one of the nation's
premier scientific agencies." The decision, he said, is "misguided and
harmful to our country."
"Understanding the changing climate is becoming more critical by the
day, as the effects of global warming mount," he added.
Climate research already protects the economy, Rosenberg said. "NOAA is
continuously working to improve forecasts of extreme events, which are
intensifying in a warming world. As we know from last year's wildfires
and hurricanes, these kind of forecasts are critical for protecting
American lives and infrastructure."
When asked for comment, Gallaudet said in a statement that the
presentation was "*a simplified draft for discussion.*"
- - - - -
Trenbeth said that trying to eliminate climate from NOAA's mission was
in line with previous congressional attacks on the agency. However, he
said, there's no getting away from the centrality of understanding
climate change to the agency's mission. "The fact is that improving
weather and seasonal forecasts is now a climate problem: it inherently
involves interactions among the atmosphere and ocean and land."
"The omission of anything related to climate, which includes El Nino, is
extremely negligent," he said.
https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2018/06/24/a-leading-us-climate-agency-may-lose-its-climate-focus.html
- - - -
[data that NOAA offers is what every forecaster reads:]
*National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center
<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/>*
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
- - - - - -
[Oh, this is the reason why]
*The White House Apparently Forgot to Tell NOAA Not to Mention Climate
Change
<https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2018/06/federal-agency-talking-about-climate-change/>*
"It's an every-agency-for-themselves kind of thing."
REBECCA LEBER
Since Trump took office, the administration has been relentlessly
undermining environmental enforcement against polluters, and the science
that underpins that work. Trump officials have systematically tampered
with climate science at the Environmental Protection Agency, the
Department of Energy, and the Department of the Interior. References to
climate change have been scrubbed from federal websites; grants have
been scrutinized for any mention of the word "climate;" scientists were
sidelined from public outreach or barred from advisory committees
altogether. Trump's often-repeated promise to "cancel all wasteful
climate change spending," appeared to be getting closer to being
fulfilled....
[Because private weather forecasting companies get their data from NOAA]
NOAA simply might be lucky that Trump's choice to lead the agency-Barry
Myers, the CEO of the private weather company Accuweather- has stalled
in the Senate confirmation process. Myers has advocated for privatizing
forecasting services that NOAA provides, though he backtracked during
his confirmation hearing last year, where he also said he backed climate
science. But Myer's nomination, which passed out of committee, has still
not been brought for a full Senate vote.
https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2018/06/federal-agency-talking-about-climate-change/
- - - -
[quick understanding of the changes]
*NOAA Mission Statement Change Would Threaten Climate, Conservation Work
<https://www.ucsusa.org/news/press-release/noaa-mission-statement#.WzBclKdKguU>*
Statement by Andrew Rosenberg, Union of Concerned Scientists
WASHINGTON (June 24, 2018)-At a Department of Commerce summit last week,
the acting head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA), Rear Admiral Timothy Gallaudet, proposed a new mission statement
for the agency-one that would undermine the agency's vital work on
behalf of the American people, according to the Union of Concerned
Scientists (UCS).
The mission of NOAA has been:
To understand and predict changes in climate, weather, oceans and
coasts;
To share that knowledge and information with others; and
To conserve and manage coastal and marine ecosystems and resources.
In his presentation, Rear Admiral Gallaudet suggested the mission
statement would change to:
To observe, understand and predict atmospheric and ocean conditions;
To share that knowledge and information with others; and
To protect lives and property, empower the economy, and support
homeland and national security.
Below is a statement from Andrew Rosenberg, Director of the Center for
Science and Democracy at UCS.
"This is a shocking change in the mission of one of the nation's premier
scientific agencies.
"Axing its focus on climate change and resource conservation is foolhardy.
"Understanding the changing climate is becoming more critical by the
day, as the effects of global warming mount, and it's essential to
protecting our economy and security, as the work of NOAA has shown time
and again.
"NOAA is continuously working to improve forecasts of extreme events,
which are intensifying in a warming world. As we know from last year's
wildfires and hurricanes, these kind of forecasts are critical for
protecting American lives and infrastructure.
"Removing 'conservation' from its mission statement is equally alarming.
We have made outstanding progress in ocean conservation, from fisheries
to whales and other endangered species over the past few decades.
America's ocean's are a national treasure enjoyed by all, and coastal
communities depend on the conservation of fisheries for their
livelihood. But this doesn't seem to matter to the administration.
NOAA's revised mission seems to be all about deregulation, which could
have a big impact on fish stocks.
"This is another unconscionable action taken by the administration under
the guise of national security.
"As a former NOAA scientist and senior executive, I fundamentally
believe this is a step backward for a critical national program. It is
misguided and harmful to our country. I hope the American people and
their elected representatives say a resounding no – we care about
scientific understanding and the conservation of our ocean resources."
https://www.ucsusa.org/news/press-release/noaa-mission-statement#.WzBclKdKguU
[Unanticipated events]
*Physicists Think the Weather Can Trigger Blackouts in an Unexpected Way
<https://gizmodo.com/physicists-think-the-weather-can-trigger-blackouts-in-a-1827051182>*
Renewable resources are great, but they bring a new element of
uncertainty to a power grid. This element can lead to failure in
surprising ways, according to a new paper.
A team of researchers built a model of power grids that transport
electricity from solar and wind power. That means that there are places
where the grid receives fluctuating inputs of power, since levels of
sunlight and wind and vary...
https://gizmodo.com/physicists-think-the-weather-can-trigger-blackouts-in-a-1827051182
- - - -
[Physics letters]
*Synopsis: How Correlated Weather Fluctuations Take Down Power Grids
<https://physics.aps.org/synopsis-for/10.1103/PhysRevLett.120.258301>*
June 21, 2018
Line failures can emerge and propagate in power grids because of varying
power injections such as those from wind and solar plants.
Intermittent power generation from renewable sources such as wind and
solar may test the reliability of a power grid in ways that aren't fully
understood. Now, Tommaso Nesti of the National Research Institute for
Mathematics and Computer Science, Netherlands, and colleagues have drawn
on concepts from statistical physics to predict how such power grids
might respond to randomly fluctuating power injections.
The researchers' model of power grids includes information about power
line capacity, network topology, and historical data on power loads and
generation. They predicted potential failures in the network using large
deviations theory, a mathematical framework for analyzing rare events
and the way they occur. This analysis created a ranking of which lines
are most likely to fail for a given set of grid operating parameters and
weather conditions.
To validate their theoretical findings, the team used real data from a
power transmission network in Germany. The researchers first estimated
the correlations of power injections resulting from weather
fluctuations. They then used these correlations to identify the power
production pattern that most likely leads to the failure of any given
line. One key finding is that failures don't necessarily result from
large fluctuations in nearby power injections but rather from "summing
up" many smaller unusual fluctuations spread across the network. They
also found that failures can propagate in nonobvious ways. An initial
line failure can cause stress and possibly the failure of other lines,
even those far from the original point of failure, depending on the
layout of the network and weather-induced correlations.
This research is published in Physical Review Letters
<http://journals.aps.org/prl>.
https://physics.aps.org/synopsis-for/10.1103/PhysRevLett.120.258301
[Press release: new book on the subject of rainwater-smart agriculture
in arid and semi-arid areas]
*Rainwater-Smart Agriculture in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas: Fostering the
Use of Rainwater for Food Security, Poverty Alleviation, Landscape
Restoration and Climate Resilience
<https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319662381>*
Edited by Walter Leal Filho and Josep de Trincheria
Abstract: This book introduces state-of-the-art approaches, methods and
research, focusing on smart management of rainwater. In addition, it
provides an overview of projects from across the world, illustrating how
rainwater-smart management has been implemented in drylands. Focusing on
the scientific perspective it demonstrates how rural dryland agriculture
can be improved. It also documents the wealth of rainwater-smart
know-how available today, and replicates and transfers results to other
countries and regions, to encourage cross-sector interactions among
various stakeholders, such as practitioners from governmental and public
organisations, policy- and decision-makers, and teaching staff from
academic scientific institutions. The contributors showcase vital
lessons learned from research, field projects and best-practice
examples. They address the integrated use of rainwater harvesting
management with landscape restoration practices and water-, and
climate-smart agriculture for food security and poverty alleviation in
arid and semi-arid areas. Original research, combined with the
contributors' synthetic approach, lays a foundation for new concepts and
ideas. Through case studies and research reports, the book discusses all
the relevant issues necessary for the comprehensive analysis and
successful implementation of the technologies in rainwater management.
Highlighting the working principles and technical recommendations with
regard to cost-efficient rainwater-smart solutions, it is of interest to
practitioners. It is also a valuable resource for academic specialists,
professionals and students, since many development agencies are funding
rainwater harvesting for irrigation purposes.
For details see: https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319662381
[SA is South Africa]
*Climate change report: SA's cities urged to prepare for heat waves and
floods
<https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/science-and-environment/2018-06-25-climate-change-report-sas-cities-urged-to-prepare-for-heat-waves-and-floods/>*
Across SA [South Africa] heat waves will scorch the interior, coastal
cities will battle to push back the encroaching sea and people will
fondly remember Eskom's load shedding. It is 2050 and the planet is
ravaged by climate change.
Billions feel the effects of this change every day and cities across the
globe grapple with flooding, famine, temperature extremes and inequality.
A new report, The Future we Don't Want - How Climate Change could Impact
the World's Greatest Cities, predicts that by the middle of this
century, millions of people will be crammed into the growing number of
megacities across the globe. The report was compiled by C40 Cities, the
Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy, the Urban Climate Change
Research Network, and Acclimatise.
They predict that Port Elizabeth, Cape Town, Durban, George, Paarl and
Uitenhage will be battling to overcome coastal flooding. About
800-million people living in 570 cities will be vulnerable to rising sea
levels, which will also cause water shortages, with Cape Town, Paarl and
George most at risk in SA. A further 2.5-billion people's food supply
will be threatened and 470-million people's power supply will be
affected by rising seas.
"For decades, scientists have been warning of risks climate change will
pose from increasing global temperatures, rising sea levels, growing
inequality and water, and food and energy shortages," says C40 Cities
executive director Mark Watts.
"Now we have the clearest possible evidence of just what these impacts
will mean for the citizens of the world's cities...
https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/science-and-environment/2018-06-25-climate-change-report-sas-cities-urged-to-prepare-for-heat-waves-and-floods/
*This Day in Climate History - June 25, 2008
<http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2008/06/26/174068/epa-email-denial/> -
from D.R. Tucker*
June 25, 2008: The New York Times reports: "The [George W. Bush] White
House in December refused to accept the Environmental Protection
Agency’s conclusion that greenhouse gases are pollutants that must be
controlled, telling agency officials that an e-mail message containing
the document would not be opened, senior E.P.A. officials said last week."
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/25/washington/25epa.html
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2008/06/26/174068/epa-email-denial/
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