[TheClimate.Vote] March 20, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Tue Mar 20 10:20:45 EDT 2018
/March 20, 2018/
[Critical weather day declared - NASA sources]
*Merged Total Precipitable Water data product
<http://weatherwest.com/archives/6203#disqus_thread>* using microwave
instrument data from several satellites.
( After following link
<http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu...%C3%97pan=24hrs&anim=html5>, click on
"Real-time" top left and then zoom in on CA. Read explanation on "About"
tab also. Courtesy University of Wisc.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu...×pan=24hrs&anim=html5 )
NOAA satellite ops gearing up to focus observing capability and
processing on severe weather approaching both coasts. They have also
paused some scheduled JPSS-1 instrument cal activities while this
occurs. The email below is typical for severe wx events. I expect to
see requests coming from WFO LA Oxnard for targeted Rapid Scans of
debris flow areas from GOES-15 once we're in the thick of it. This
came out at 11 am this morning:
Topic: *Critical Weather Day has been declared.*
Date/Time Issued: March 19, 2018 2140Z
Date/Time of Initial Impact: March 20, 2018 2000Z J/D 079
Date/Time of Expected End: March 23, 2018 0000Z J/D 083
Length of Outage: 52 hours
Type: Western/Eastern Region
Who: NCEP, NWSTG, NCF, Western and Eastern Region
*Reason: Eastern Region - Developing nor'easter with impacts in the
Mid-Atlantic and New England from heavy rain, snow, and strong wind
potential.**
**Western Region - Developing atmospheric river event with excessive
rainfall over portions of central/southern California.*
http://weatherwest.com/archives/6203#disqus_thread
- - - - - -
[Peter Sinclair: Calif weather warning]
*Heads-Up California! - Atmospheric River Hitting Now
<https://climatecrocks.com/2018/03/19/heads-up-california-atmospheric-river-hitting-now/>*
March 19, 2018
*New threat of mudslides, avalanche to burned area in Southern Cal.*
Local folk: If asked to evacuate, don’t hesitate.
*Daniel Swain’s blog WeatherWest: <http://weatherwest.com/archives/6203>*
The strongest storm of the year (and perhaps longer) for southern
California is rapidly developing over the Eastern Pacific west of
California. This system already has a visually spectacular presentation
on satellite imagery, and is exhibiting almost textbook structure for an
atmospheric river of the “Pineapple Express” variety (so named for the
subtropical origins of the associated moisture transport axis near
Hawaii). This slow-moving storm will take its time getting here, but
will also linger after making landfall on Wednesday. As a result, a
long-duration heavy precipitation event is expected from the Central
Coast and southern Sierra Nevada (in the north) to the coastal plain in
SoCal (in the south). The focus of very heavy precipitation appears to
be Santa Barbara and possibly Ventura County (plus or minus 50-100 miles
of coastline), but everyone in that above-mentioned region is going to
get soaked...
This does *not* appear to be one of those atmospheric rivers (AR) with
“all bark and no bite.” ...
When a very moist AR “attaches” itself to a strong surface low, though,
the associated dynamical lift provided by the associated cold front can
produce intense precipitation just about everywhere, which adds to the
topographical enhancement....
- - - - - - -
The big question: to what extent, for how long, and precisely where will
this AR stall out on Wednesday-Thursday? If it moves relatively quickly,
flood concerns will be considerably reduced; if it shifts northward, the
Thomas Fire burn scar will be at less risk; but if a stall occurs near
Santa Barbara–as currently appears possible–then watch out. Right now,
it’s not possible to distinguish between these scenarios. But all of
them entail quite a bit of water for a broad swath of SoCal. It is worth
noting that the majority of major historical flood events in California
have been the result of a slow-moving or stalled atmospheric river; such
stalling is often as a result of a frontal wave, similar to the one
described above. This is a storm to watch very closely on the Central
Coast southward to LA County.
Just how unusual is a storm of this magnitude? When measured in terms of
the “vertically integrated water vapor transport” (IVT, i.e. the amount
of water in motion in the entire column of air above your head), the
inbound atmospheric river may be among the strongest (or perhaps *the*
strongest) on record for the months of March or April in Southern
California. With water vapor fluxes of this magnitude, it is possible
that the models are actually underestimating the precipitation potential
with this event (and they’re spitting out some huge totals for much of
SoCal already).
https://climatecrocks.com/2018/03/19/heads-up-california-atmospheric-river-hitting-now/
[re-calculate]
*The Arctic's carbon bomb might be even more potent than we thought
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/03/19/the-arctics-carbon-bomb-might-be-even-more-potent-than-we-thought/?utm_term=.05ebe8a9aca3>*
Washington Post - Chris Mooney
For some time, scientists fearing the mass release of greenhouse gases
from the carbon-rich, frozen soils of the Arctic have had at least one
morsel of good news in their forecasts: They predicted that most of the
gas released would be carbon dioxide, which, though a greenhouse gas,
drives warming more slowly than some other gases. Scientists obviously
weren't excited about more carbon dioxide emissions, but it was better
than the alternative: methane, a shorter-lived but far harder-hitting
gas, which could cause faster bursts of warming.
New research <http://nature.com/articles/doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0095-z>
released Monday suggests that methane releases could be considerably
more prevalent as Arctic permafrost thaws. The research finds that in
waterlogged wetland soils, where oxygen is not prevalent, tiny
microorganisms will produce a considerable volume of methane, a gas that
doesn't last in the air much more than a decade but has a warming effect
many times that of carbon dioxide over a period of 100 years.
This finding, if further confirmed, could potentially reorient
calculations of the overall potential of permafrost to worsen global
warming over the coming century. For instance, one major study of the
permafrost warming potential, published in 2015 in the journal Nature,
downplayed the potential for ...
- - - - - - - - - - -
The divergent finding came after Knoblauch and his colleagues conducted
a lengthy experiment, more than seven years long, monitoring patches of
submerged and artificially warmed soil from Siberia in the laboratory,
and gradually seeing sensitive methane-producing microorganisms become
more prevalent over time.
Knoblauch contends that other studies have not examined waterlogged
Arctic soils for as long, and he notes that in some cases it took three
years or more for the methane-generating microorganisms to really get
cranking.
"What we saw is that it takes a very long time until methane starts
being produced, and the study that we did is really the first one which
is so long," Knoblauch said.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/03/19/the-arctics-carbon-bomb-might-be-even-more-potent-than-we-thought/?utm_term=.05ebe8a9aca3
[Journal nature climate change]
*Methane production as key to the greenhouse gas budget of thawing
permafrost <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0095-z.epdf>*
Abstract:
Permafrost thaw liberates frozen organic carbon, which is decomposed
into carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). The release of these
greenhouse gases (GHGs) forms a positive feedback to atmospheric CO2
and CH4 concentrations and accelerates climate change. Current
studies report a minor importance of CH4 production in
water-saturated (anoxic) permafrost soils and a stronger permafrost
carbon-climate feedback from drained (oxic) soils. Here we show
through seven-year laboratory incubations that equal amounts of CO2
and CH4 are formed in thawing permafrost under anoxic condi-tions
after stable CH4-producing microbial communities have established.
Less permafrost carbon was mineralized under anoxic conditions but
more CO2-carbon equivalents (CO2-Ce) were formed than under oxic
conditions when the higher global warming potential (GWP) of CH4 is
taken into account. A model of organic carbon decomposition,
calibrated with the observed decomposition data, predicts a higher
loss of permafrost carbon under oxic conditions (113 +/-
58 g CO2-C kgC-1 (kgC, kilograms of carbon)) by 2100, but a twice
as high pro-duction of CO2-Ce (241 +/- 138 g CO2-Ce kgC-1) under
anoxic conditions. These findings challenge the view of a stronger
permafrost carbon-climate feedback from drained soils and emphasize
the importance of CH4 production in thawing permafrost on
climate-relevant timescales
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0095-z.epdf
*- - - - - -
*[NASA shows how they map methane]*
"Mapping Methane Plumes with the AVIRIS-NG Instrument: Four Corners" by
Andrew Thorpe <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJJAxz5Xy8I>
*"Mapping Methane Plumes with the AVIRIS-NG Instrument: Four Corners"
presented by Andrew Thorpe. Originally presented at the Fall AGU 2017
conference on Monday, December 12, 2017 at 10:30 a.m.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJJAxz5Xy8I
[Minneapolis researcher talks adaptation at TED ]
*The side of climate change we must debate: how do we adapt? | Jessica
Hellmann <https://youtu.be/xml2kORynMQ>*
Published on Mar 13, 2018
There is a part of climate change that we are not debating and
developing enough, and it's called "adaptation." Though we know how to
stop climate change (and we should), we do not yet know how to live with
it. So that humans and other living things can survive--and perhaps
thrive--in a changing climate, we need a generation of adaptation
doctors to develop therapies and strategies that treat the climate
change disease. Jessica Hellmann is the director of the Institute on
the Environment at the University of Minnesota, an internationally
recognized organization working to solve grand environmental challenges.
Her research led an important paradigm shift in ecology and natural
resource management by showing that living with climate change is just
as crucial to the future of humanity and Earth's ecosystems as slowing
and stopping greenhouse gas emissions. Hellmann regularly counsels with
a variety of government and corporate organizations, is a frequent
contributor to leading scientific journals, and is routinely called upon
by leading media outlets like CNN, NPR, Fox News, The Telegraph and the
Chicago Tribune to provide expert input on topics related to global change.
https://youtu.be/xml2kORynMQ
[Interior Director meets Nation Mining Association (NMA)]*
Zinke is attending a private meeting of the NMA board of directors
today in Phoenix.
<http://documentedinvestigations.org/2018/03/19/zinke-nma-board-meeting/>
*This is not the first time NMA has hosted key officials in the Trump
Administration. EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt attended the NMA Spring
board meeting last year in Naples, Florida, according to Pruitt's
schedule released by the New York Times. Commerce Secretary Wilbur
Ross, Energy Secretary Rick Perry, and Labor Secretary Alexander Acosta
spoke at the NMA 2017 fall board meeting, according to a report by the
Washington Post . That event took place at the Trump International Hotel
in Washington, D.C.. According to The Intercept, Zinke was initially
scheduled to address the event at the Trump International but could not
attend due to travel-Interior Deputy Secretary David Bernhardt attended
in his place.
The Trump administration has delivered numerous wins for the coal
industry since taking office. The Environmental Protection Agency is
replacing two major rules from the Obama Administration that would
significantly impact the coal industry: the Clean Power Plan, and Waters
of the United States ("WOTUS"). Secretary Zinke's Interior Department
has repealed the Obama-era ban on coal-leasing on federal lands, and
reversed the closing of a loophole that would have led to higher royalty
payments being paid by coal companies extracting on public lands.*...
*http://documentedinvestigations.org/2018/03/19/zinke-nma-board-meeting/
https://twitter.com/ItsDocumented/status/975791596607336449
[theGuardian]
*Climate change soon to cause mass movement, World Bank warns
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/19/climate-change-soon-to-cause-mass-movement-world-bank-warns>*
140m people in three regions expected to migrate before 2050 unless
environment is improved...
"Climate change-driven migration will be a reality, but it does not need
to be a crisis, provided we take action now and act boldly," said John
Roome, a senior director for climate change at the World Bank group.
He laid out three key actions governments should take: first, to
accelerate their reductions of greenhouse gases; second, for national
governments to incorporate climate change migration into their national
development planning; and third, to invest in further data and analysis
for use in planning development.
Within countries, the effects of climate change will create multiple
"hotspots": made up of the areas people move away from in large numbers,
and the areas they move to.
"Local planners need to make sure the resources are made available, and
to make sure it takes place in a comprehensive and coordinated manner,"
said Roome.
Globally, many tens of millions more are expected to be similarly
affected, creating huge problems for national and local governments.
Nearly 3% of the population was judged likely to move owing to climate
change in the areas studied - a proportion that might be repeated
elsewhere...
Climate change is likely to most affect the poorest and most vulnerable,
making agriculture difficult or even impossible across large swaths of
the globe, threatening water resources and increasing the likelihood of
floods, droughts and heatwaves in some areas. Sea level rises and
violent storm surges are also likely to hit low-lying coastal areas,
such as in Bangladesh.
Kristalina Georgieva, the chief executive of the World Bank, in her
introduction to the report published on Monday, said: "There is growing
recognition among researchers that more people will move within national
borders to escape the effects of slow-onset climate change, such as
droughts, crop failure and rising seas.
"The number of climate migrants could be reduced by tens of millions as
a result of global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and with
far-sighted development planning. There is an opportunity now to plan
and act for emerging climate change threats."
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/19/climate-change-soon-to-cause-mass-movement-world-bank-warns
[video AGU glacier moves in Antarctica]
*The 2017 Pine Island Glacier and Larsen C Ice Shelf Calving Events by
Christopher Shuman <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwOSWGlfZzI>*
"The 2017 Pine Island Glacier and Larsen C Ice Shelf Calving Events"
presented by Christopher Shuman. Originally presented at the Fall AGU
2017 conference on Tuesday, December 12, 2017 at 3:45 p.m.
*Release by NASA Scientific Visualization Studio
<https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCM2GOiW_Dxn1D7HHP80IrBg>***
NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio (SVS) works closely with
scientists to create visualizations of NASA data in order to promote a
greater understanding of Earth and space science research activities at
NASA and its collaborators. We are creating more and more of our content
in 4K resolution and are starting to experiment in 360-degree visuals,
so releasing material through YouTube will allow users greater ease and
flexibility in using our visualizations. Starting in 2017, we plan on
releasing all our new material here as well as on our website,
https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov .
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCM2GOiW_Dxn1D7HHP80IrBg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwOSWGlfZzI
[move to the Northern Plains]
*Human influence on climate change will fuel more extreme heat waves in
US <https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180319124302.htm>*
Human-caused climate change will drive more extreme summer heat waves in
the western U.S., including in California and the Southwest as early as
2020, new research shows.
The new analysis of heat wave patterns across the U.S., led by
scientists at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and
Atmospheric Science (UM) based Cooperative Institute for Marine and
Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS) and colleagues, also found that human-made
climate change will be a dominant driver for heat wave occurrences in
the Great Lakes region by 2030, and in the Northern and Southern Plains
by 2050 and 2070, respectively.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180319124302.htm
[Journal Nature Climate Change]
*Early emergence of anthropogenically forced heat waves in the western
United States and Great Lakes
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0116-y>*
Abstract
Climate projections for the twenty-first century suggest an increase
in the occurrence of heat waves. However, the time at which
externally forced signals of anthropogenic climate change (ACC)
emerge against background natural variability (time of emergence
(ToE)) has been challenging to quantify, which makes future
heat-wave projections uncertain. Here we combine observations and
model simulations under present and future forcing to assess how
internal variability and ACC modulate US heat waves. We show that
ACC dominates heat-wave occurrence over the western United States
and Great Lakes regions, with ToE that occurred as early as the
2020s and 2030s, respectively. In contrast, internal variability
governs heat waves in the northern and southern Great Plains, where
ToE occurs in the 2050s and 2070s; this later ToE is believed to be
a result of a projected increase in circulation variability, namely
the Great Plain low-level jet. Thus, greater mitigation and
adaptation efforts are needed in the Great Lakes and western United
States regions.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0116-y
[not nicer]
*Climate Change Will Not Make Us Nicer
<https://www.citylab.com/environment/2018/03/climate-change-will-not-make-us-nicer/554279/>*
Amanda Kolson Hurley
A recent study found that people who grow up in places with mild weather
are more agreeable and outgoing. What does that mean in a world of
climate extremes?...
A report published in November in the journal Nature Human Behaviour
<https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/cbs-directory/sites/cbs-directory/files/publications/Regional%20ambient%20temperature%20is%20associated%20with%20human%20personality.pdf>
claimed that ambient temperature (that is, the temperature of the
surrounding environment) is a "crucial" factor associated with an
individual's personality....
Why would the outdoor temperature influence our personalities? The
hypothesis seems almost too simple: In comfortably warm weather, we are
more likely to go outside, where we encounter other people and engage in
a wider range of activities. But in cold or very hot weather, we tend to
stay indoors, where our social interactions and activities are more
limited...
The researchers found a "robust" connection between enjoying a balmy
hometown temperature in childhood and being more agreeable as an adult...
"The future is going to be radically strange."
https://www.citylab.com/environment/2018/03/climate-change-will-not-make-us-nicer/554279/
[Movie: Hurricane Heist]*
Climate change message in Cohen's new film The Hurricane Heist
<http://www.straitstimes.com/lifestyle/climate-change-message-in-cohens-new-film-the-hurricane-heist>*
SAN DIEGO •This year, the United States Federal Reserve will shred an
estimated 5.6 billion damaged, out-of-date or just plain shabby
banknotes worth US$175 billion (S$230 billion).
Money gets trashed regularly and mostly no one notices, but what if a
hurricane and a gang of sophisticated thieves are headed right towards
where it is kept?
That is the premise of The Hurricane Heist, the latest release from
veteran director Rob Cohen, creator of the Fast And Furious franchise.
"A shootout is no longer just a shootout, a chase is no longer just a
chase. Any of the tropes of action films suddenly have to be
reinterpreted by taking place in (strong) winds and driving rain," the
68-year-old said.
"It just seemed like, what a delicious challenge to be able to create a
hurricane itself and create an action film within it."
The Hurricane Heist stars Toby Kebbell (Kong: Skull Island, 2017) as a
meteorologist tracking the fiercest storm in US history as it heads for
coastal Alabama.
As the locals evacuate, the US mint in the fictional town of Gulfport
races against time to shred US$600 million of old bills, but a gang of
tech-savvy robbers have other ideas.
Extreme weather is a nightmare all too real for Cohen, who remembers a
terrifying storm when he was growing up in Cornwall, an hour's drive
north of New York.
"We got hit with a hurricane sometime in the 1950s and all I remember is
the power going out and trees falling. You hear the trees snapping and
falling and those banshee winds howling," he said.
"We were on the edge of that storm, not even in the brunt of it, but I
remember I was six or seven years old, just hunkering down, worried that
a tree was going to crush the house with me in it."...
Creating the storm of the century on camera is the kind of challenge the
director of high-octane blockbusters such as xXx (2002) and Dragon: The
Bruce Lee Story (1993) relishes.
Kebbell and actress Maggie Grace, who plays a US treasury agent, endured
pummelling by crushing rain, 160kmh wind gusts and routine 16-hour days
on set.
You do not have to look particularly hard to find the subtext in all
this chaos, for The Hurricane Heist wears its ecology message very much
on its sleeve...
Kebbell's character explains at one point that the increasing frequency
and severity of hurricanes is caused by global warming and that "with
all due deference to Donald Trump, there is man-made climate change".
Cohen, it turns out, has vitriol to spare for the American President,
who has described climate change as a Chinese hoax.
"I hate everything he stands for, including on climate change," he said.
"He doesn't want to hear that fossil fuels may in fact be poisoning the
whole Earth."
AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
http://www.straitstimes.com/lifestyle/climate-change-message-in-cohens-new-film-the-hurricane-heist
[IMDB]
*The Hurricane Heist (2018)
<https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5360952/?ref_=nv_sr_1>*
PG-13 | 1h 43min | Action, Thriller | 9 March 2018 (USA)
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5360952/?ref_=nv_sr_1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQpSvJGrArY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UxEKa0p2ghk
*This Day in Climate History - March 20, 2007
<March%2020,%202007:%20In%20a%20published%20interview,+then-Rep.+Wayne+Gilchrest+%28R-MD%29+notes+that+he+was+blocked+from+being+appointed+to+the+bipartisan+Select+Committee+on+Energy+Independence+and+Global+Warming+by+House+Minority+Leader+John+Boehner+because+Gilchrest+refused+to+disavow+the+overwhelming+evidence+of+human-caused+climate+change.+Gilchrest+also+notes+that+fellow+Republican+Roy+Blunt+of+Missouri+%22%E2%80%A6said+he+didn%27t+think+there+was+enough+evidence+to+suggest+that+humans+are+causing+global+warming,%22%20Gilchrest%20said.%20%22Right%20there,%20holy%20cow,%20there%27s%20like%209,000%20scientists%20to%20three%20on%20that%20one.%22,,http://www.orangepower.com/threads/global-warming-panel-makeup-questioned.33589/>
- from D.R. Tucker*
March 20, 2007: In a published interview, then-Rep. Wayne Gilchrest
(R-MD) notes that he was blocked from being appointed to the bipartisan
Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming by House
Minority Leader John Boehner because Gilchrest refused to disavow the
overwhelming evidence of human-caused climate change. Gilchrest also
notes that fellow Republican Roy Blunt of Missouri "…said he didn't
think there was enough evidence to suggest that humans are causing
global warming," Gilchrest said. "Right there, holy cow, there's like
9,000 scientists to three on that one."
http://www.orangepower.com/threads/global-warming-panel-makeup-questioned.33589/
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