[TheClimate.Vote] March 25, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Sun Mar 25 10:27:41 EDT 2018
/March 25, 2018/
[Maine Maple Sunday is today]
*How Climate Change Is Affecting The Maine Maple Syrup Industry
<http://mainepublic.org/post/how-climate-change-affecting-maine-maple-syrup-industry>*
On a spring day so cold the sap froze in the few old-fashioned buckets
that Mark Cooper of Coopers Maple Products still uses, the Windham maple
producer talked about the changes he has noticed over the 31 years he's
been in business.
The season used to start in late February and run through early April.
"It was pretty consistent," he said.
Not anymore. These days, it's not uncommon for him to make maple syrup
in January or to have balmy 65 degree February days followed by huge
snow storms and frigid temperatures in March. He's noticing his maple
trees have struggled some, with fungal diseases or branches on otherwise
healthy trees that drop to the ground for no reason he can ascertain.
Red maples are moving in and sugar maples are losing ground, he's
noticed. Big wind and snow storms also have taken a toll on the trees.
And even when the sap is running, there's just not as big a flow as
there used to be.
"We certainly have seen a change, and not for the better," Cooper said.
- - - - -
"Sweeping climate change under the rug won't change anything," Kristin
Jackson, the NRCM federal outreach coordinator, said.
Cooper has already made a couple of major technological shifts during
his decades as a maple producer. He started with buckets, then moved to
a gravity tubing system, then most recently to a vacuum pump-operated
system. That system lets him collect sap even when the conditions are
less than ideal, and makes his trees more productive. That's a help, he
said, but can only do so much.
"Our biggest challenge is getting decent weather to produce enough sap
flow," Cooper said. "We've had below average production over the last
seven years, compared to the previous 20 years. Those wide swings of
temperatures are something we didn't use to deal with."
Still, despite everything, he loves making syrup and is looking forward
to the crowds and festivities of Maine Maple Sunday, which will mark its
35th year on Sunday, March 25. The people who come to his farm will
enjoy a big breakfast, complete with maple syrup, of course. They'll
have the chance to meet some of his farm animals and will smell the
fragrant aroma of simmering maple sap. And maybe they'll come away with
an understanding of how weather and climate changes can affect his industry.
http://mainepublic.org/post/how-climate-change-affecting-maine-maple-syrup-industry
- - - -
[Map of Maple Sugar Producers]
About Maine Maple Sunday - Maine Maple Producers Association
<http://mainemapleproducers.com/about-maine-maple-sunday/>
The Maine Maple Producers Association welcomes you to join Maine's Maple
Syrup Producers, statewide, as they celebrate Maine Maple Sunday. Most
sugarhouses offer free maple syrup samples and demonstrations on how
pure Maine maple syrup is made. Many farms offer games, activities,
treats, sugarbush tours, ...
http://mainemapleproducers.com/about-maine-maple-sunday/
*
*[Ready to act] *
>From wildfires to floods, climate change keeps coming for Montecito,
California
<https://grist.org/article/from-wildfires-to-floods-climate-change-keeps-coming-for-montecito-california/>*
This time it might have been the people of Montecito, and this time the
storm might have passed without turning the hillsides into a deathtrap.
But that's the thing about California; there's always another drought
and another fire and another flood around the corner. Which means in the
Golden State, it's always evacuation season.
https://grist.org/article/from-wildfires-to-floods-climate-change-keeps-coming-for-montecito-california/
[coal messes will get messier]
Obama official: Trump cuts will leave coal clean-up agency unable to
function
<http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/03/15/obama-official-trump-cuts-will-leave-coal-clean-agency-unable-function/>
Published on 15/03/2018
The number of mine site inspections is falling and proposed budget cuts
at the federal regulator will further erode oversight, a former top
official warns
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/03/15/obama-official-trump-cuts-will-leave-coal-clean-agency-unable-function/
[PBS Frontline]
*Mailings to Teachers Highlight a Political Fight Over Climate Change in
the Classroom
<https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/mailings-to-teachers-highlight-a-political-fight-over-climate-change-in-the-classroom/>*
MARCH 23, 2018 / by KATIE WORTH
Last spring, science teachers across the nation began receiving
unsolicited packages containing classroom materials from a libertarian
group that rejects the scientific consensus on climate change.
This spring, some of the same teachers are opening packages containing
very different materials: A book written by a Cornell University
affiliate called "The Teacher-Friendly Guide to Climate Change," which
embraces the prevailing science, explains the phenomenon in detail and
includes recommendations for how to teach the subject to children...
This rare back-and-forth of direct mailings to teachers demonstrates how
classrooms have emerged as a battleground in the American political war
over climate change. While those who reject mainstream climate science
have long advocated their view in Washington and statehouses across the
country, their efforts to influence educators – and the counter-efforts
from the science community – shows the extent to which the minds of
children are also being targeted.
Last year's mailings were sent out by the Heartland Institute, an
Illinois-based think tank that holds an annual conference that has
become a pilgrimage for those who reject the overwhelming findings of
the scientific community that humans are causing the earth's climate to
change. The packages contained pamphlets, a DVD and a book titled "Why
Scientists Disagree about Global Warming." A spokesman for the group
said it sent more than 350,000 packages to K-12 and college-level
science teachers last year...
- - - - - - -
Among those who've picked up a copy of the PRI book is Lisa Ballard, an
environmental science teacher at Glendale Union High School District in
Phoenix. She said she and other teachers at her school received the
Heartland packages last year. She said she was shocked to find a
colleague was considering using those materials in her class.
"I had a talk with her," she said. "I told her it wasn't credible and
not aligned with our standards, and she said she'd had no idea."
Ballard suspects there are many other teachers out there like her colleague.
"Teachers don't get a lot of free stuff, so when they do – even if it's
just slightly relevant to their class – they'll be inclined to use it,"
she said.
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/mailings-to-teachers-highlight-a-political-fight-over-climate-change-in-the-classroom/
[Bill Maher video 6:06]
*Gina McCarthy on Bill Maher: "All Out Attack on Science"
<https://youtu.be/Syc6CpF3GZw>*
March 24, 2018
Former EPA Administrator and Harvard Center for Health and the Global
Environment Director Gina McCarthy joins Bill to discuss the
intersection of science, safety, and policy.
Gina McCarthy | Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)
https://youtu.be/Syc6CpF3GZw
[FactCheck.Org: FALSE]
*Smith's Error-Filled Climate Op-Ed
<https://www.factcheck.org/2018/03/smiths-error-filled-climate-op-ed/>*
By Vanessa Schipani, Posted on March 23, 2018
*Lamar Smith,U.S. Representative*
Wrote that climate scientists have predicted "global temperatures
would increase more than one degree Celsius by 2020," but observed
temperatures have been only "half as high."
Op-ed for Fox News – Monday, March 12, 2018
- Smith took a quote by climate scientist Stephen Schneider out of
context, claiming he advised other researchers in his field to "never
express doubt" about their work to the public.
- Smith said climate scientists have predicted "global temperatures
would increase more than one degree Celsius by 2020," but observed
temperatures have been "half as high." Since the late 19th century, the
planet has already warmed about 1.1 C, says NASA.
- He said research shows the Paris agreement "would decrease warming
only 0.16 degree Celsius by 2100." But the author of that study said his
research was cherry-picked.
- He claimed the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has "low
confidence" that climate change contributes to extreme weather. The
IPCC's confidence in 2012 varied from medium to low. Newer reports by
other organizations have increased confidence.
- He said "the historical record disproves" climate scientists who have
"tried to link [hurricanes] and climate change." But there is evidence
to suggest there's a link.
- He claimed wildfires are "decreasing in frequency." But they've
increased in total acreage - the metric scientists use to measure fire
behavior.
- Smith, who announced his retirement from Congress when his term ends
this year, primarily argued in his March 12 op-ed that the House
Science, Space and Technology Committee - unlike "climate alarmists" -
"follows the scientific method, which welcomes critiques, avoids
exaggerated predictions, and relies on unbiased data."
Yet his op-ed is filled with scientifically inaccurate claims.
- - - - - -
Smith took a quote by Stephen Schneider, a professor at Stanford
University who died in 2010, out of context when he claimed the climate
scientist "has said, '…we have to offer up scary scenarios, make
simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts
we might have.' " Smith added, "His message is clear: never express
doubt and never accept any critiques." That was not Schneider's message.
The quote comes from an article published in Discover magazine's 1989
issue. Schneider, who also served as a co-author or lead author on all
five IPCC reports, provides the full quote from that article in an
editorial he wrote for the American Physical Society's newspaper in
1996. (We verified this quote's accuracy with a microfilm version of
that issue of Discover.)
Schneider, Oct. 1989, Discover: On the one hand, as scientists we
are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to
tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but – which means that
we must include all the doubts, the caveats, the ifs, ands, and
buts. On the other hand, we are not just scientists but human beings
as well. And like most people we'd like to see the world a better
place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce
the risk of potentially disastrous climatic change. To do that we
need to get some broadbased support, to capture the public's
imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media
coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified,
dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might
have. This 'double ethical bind' we frequently find ourselves in
cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the
right balance is between being effective and being honest. I hope
that means being both.
- - - - - -
Smith also made a couple of faulty claims about global temperatures. For
one, he claimed that global warming predictions scientists made in the
1970s "are so far off" observed temperatures.
Smith, March 12: Since the late 1970s, climate scientists have told
the American people that global temperatures would increase more
than one degree Celsius by 2020. However, actual satellite
temperature observations do not support these predictions. Observed
temperatures were less than half as high as the climate models'
predictions. When the predictions are so far off, we should not make
policy decisions based on them.
We couldn't find any support for Smith's claims, and his office didn't
provide us with any solid support either. The spokesperson said that
"climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
consistently predict temperatures that are higher than the
temperature[s] that are observed by satellites."
- - - - - -
Lastly, Smith claimed in his op-ed: "Examination of patterns of other
extreme weather events in the United States shows that a changing
climate does not increase the frequency of these events," adding, "U.S.
wildland fires are decreasing in frequency." But scientists look at the
total acreage of fires - not the number of fires - to evaluate links
with global warming. And the total acreage has increased since at least
the 1980s.
Kari Cobb, a spokesperson for the National Interagency Fire Center,
explained to us by email: "It's important to look at the acreage burned
over the number of fires reported because that is what is indicative of
fire behavior."
The "acres burned can be tied to environmental factors like climate and
availability of fuels," such as dry leaves, brush or grass. But the
number of fires "does not provide a correlation to most environmental
factors that truly affect fire." In other words, "All it provides is how
many of fires were reported, not how that fire behaved or moved across
the landscape," she said.
We also spoke with Cobb for an article we wrote back in October that
looked at whether global warming is linked to the increase in the total
acreage of wildfires in the West - an increase that dates back to at
least the 1980s. As we pointed out in that piece, researchers say a hot
and dry summer - conditions more likely in a warmer world - caused
widespread wildfires in Western states last year. But land use changes
dating back to the 1800s have also played a role.
When we asked Cobb in October what role climate change plays in the
severity and length of the fire season, she pointed to "longer summers,
higher temperatures, decreased precipitation, and longer episodes of
drought." She added, "The combination of these changes has increased the
availability of dry fuels and the ease at which fire ignites and spreads."
Overall, Smith's Fox News piece twisted the words, findings and methods
of climate scientists, making it what we'd call an error-filled op-ed.
https://www.factcheck.org/2018/03/smiths-error-filled-climate-op-ed/
[Automotive News]
*Moves on CAFE could just bring uncertainty
<http://www.autonews.com/article/20180323/OEM11/180329841/cafe-moves-bring-uncertainty>*
March 23, 2018 - Eric Kulisch
WASHINGTON - The Trump administration finally will tip its hand this
week about how it intends to treat fuel efficiency rules in place for
early next decade, but clear answers on potential changes likely will
take several months.
Clean-air advocates expect the White House to significantly water down
Obama-era standards aimed at addressing global warming, throwing into
doubt the unified national program that automakers say protects them
from the cost and complexity of building vehicles to disparate
government specifications.
Automakers lobbied a year ago for a second look at the EPA's tailpipe
emission standards for the 2022-25 model years and got their wish with
the new Republican administration. But the outcome of that effort is
replete with risks for all stakeholders -- not least the automakers
themselves.
The forthcoming decisions may be anticlimactic. The EPA has a regulatory
deadline to issue a final determination by Sunday, April 1. The
administrator widely is expected to announce that the standards are not
appropriate, which would then kick off a new rule-making process. The
explanation for the decision could provide insight into which way the
agency is headed. A proposal for new standards could take months,
although some reports say officials are shooting for a release this summer.
Bloomberg and Reuters, both citing anonymous sources, reported Friday
that EPA officials have decided that the 2022-2025 standards should be
relaxed
<http://www.autonews.com/article/20180323/OEM11/180329782/epa-poised-to-side-with-automakers-calls-to-ease-fuel-rules-report>.
Car companies insist they only wanted the government to stick to the
original timetable for evaluation of the corporate average fuel economy
standards, rather than the Obama administration's accelerated review, in
hopes of gaining some flexibility with compliance. But environmentalists
say the gambit could backfire if an administration with strong
deregulation instincts and skepticism about climate change opts for
greater revisions.
"Based on what we've seen from this administration, it's entirely within
the realm of possibility that the standards will be completely rolled
back and flatlined," said David Cooke, senior vehicles analyst at the
Union of Concerned Scientists. "Automakers should have recognized ...
this was always a possibility. If all they wanted was minor tweaks, they
didn't need to roll back the final determination."
http://www.autonews.com/article/20180323/OEM11/180329841/cafe-moves-bring-uncertainty
[Coal looks backwards]
Obama official: Trump cuts will leave coal clean-up agency unable to
function
<http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/03/15/obama-official-trump-cuts-will-leave-coal-clean-agency-unable-function/>
Published on 15/03/2018 By Mark Olalde
The number of mine site inspections is falling and proposed budget cuts
at the federal regulator will further erode oversight, a former top
official warns
Trump-era budget cuts will leave the office that oversees the clean-up
of the nation's coal mines unable to do its job, according to an
official who headed up the division under Barack Obama.
Donald Trump's administration has proposed to slash $130 million from
the annual discretionary budget for the Office of Surface Mining
Reclamation and Enforcement (OSMRE). Savings are to come from axing a
pilot programme that couples reclamation of abandoned sites with
economic development projects and cutting staff numbers 12% to 381
full-time employees.
But Joe Pizarchik, who led OSMRE for seven years until Trump's
inauguration, said it would struggle to fulfil its mandate under the
proposed budget.
"If OSMRE is going to fulfil its legal obligations to assist the states
and tribes, to work with the citizens, to do the statutory mandated
oversight, OSMRE should have approximately 570 employees," said Pizarchik.
OSMRE did not respond to requests for comment.
- - - - -
Campaigners expressed fears that enforcement will be further weakened
under Trump's "energy dominance" strategy to promote fossil fuels.
"It's really been frustrating to watch these lawmakers double down on
their commitment to the industry at the expense of the citizens and the
taxpayers who are really going to have to bear the cost of the legacy of
these mines," said Peter Morgan, a senior attorney at the Sierra Club
who focuses on the coal industry.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/03/15/obama-official-trump-cuts-will-leave-coal-clean-agency-unable-function/
- - - -
Related Posts:
Why and how we investigated the coal industry's clean-up funds
<http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/03/15/investigated-coal-industrys-clean-funds/>
Crackdown on coal mine 'self-bonds' stalls under Trump
<http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/03/15/crackdown-coal-mine-self-bonds-stalls-trump/>
US coal hasn't set aside enough money to clean up its mines
<http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/03/14/us-coal-hasnt-set-aside-enough-money-clean-mines/>
Arch Coal goes bankrupt as US sector declines
<http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/01/11/arch-coal-goes-bankrupt-as-us-sector-declines/>
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/03/15/obama-official-trump-cuts-will-leave-coal-clean-agency-unable-function/
- - -
[meanwhile]
*Chile declares start of coal power phase-out
<http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/02/01/chile-declares-start-coal-power-phase/>*
Published on 01/02/2018
President Michelle Bachelet says the country will not build new coal
plants without carbon capture and begin talks to replace existing
capacity with cleaner sources
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/02/01/chile-declares-start-coal-power-phase/
[SMU Research]
*Radar images show large swath of West Texas oil patch is heaving and
sinking at alarming rates
<http://blog.smu.edu/research/2018/03/20/radar-images-show-large-swath-of-texas-oil-patch-is-heaving-and-sinking-at-alarming-rates/>*
Analysis indicates decades of oil production activity have destabilized
localities in an area of about 4,000 square miles populated by small
towns, roadways and a vast network of oil and gas pipelines and storage
tanks
Two giant sinkholes near Wink, Texas, may just be the tip of the
iceberg, according to a new study that found alarming rates of new
ground movement extending far beyond the infamous sinkholes.
That's the finding of a geophysical team from Southern Methodist
University, Dallas that previously reported the rapid rate at which the
sinkholes are expanding and new ones forming.
Now the team has discovered that various locations in large portions of
four Texas counties are also sinking and uplifting.
Radar satellite images show significant movement of the ground across
localities in a 4000-square-mile area - in one place as much as 40
inches over the past two-and-a-half years, say the geophysicists.
"The ground movement we're seeing is not normal. The ground doesn't
typically do this without some cause," said geophysicist Zhong Lu, a
professor in the Roy M. Huffington Department of Earth Sciences at SMU
and a global expert in satellite radar imagery analysis.
- - - - - -
Ground movement associated with oil activity
The SMU researchers found a significant relationship between ground
movement and oil activities that include pressurized fluid injection
into the region's geologically unstable rock formations.
Fluid injection includes waste saltwater injection into nearby wells,
and carbon dioxide flooding of depleting reservoirs to stimulate oil
recovery.
Injected fluids increase the pore pressure in the rocks, and the release
of the stress is followed by ground uplift. The researchers found that
ground movement coincided with nearby sequences of wastewater injection
rates and volume and CO2 injection in nearby wells.
Also related to the ground's sinking and upheaval are dissolving salt
formations due to freshwater leaking into abandoned underground oil
facilities, as well as the extraction of oil...
- - - - - -
At two wastewater injection wells 9.3 miles west of Wink and Kermit, the
radar detected upheaval of about 2.1 inches that coincided with
increases in injection volume. The injection wells extend about 4,921
feet to 5,577 feet deep into a sandstone formation.
In the vicinity of 11 CO2 injection wells nearly seven miles southwest
of Monahans, the radar analysis detected surface uplift of more than 1
inch. The wells are about 2,460 feet to 2,657 feet deep. As with
wastewater injection, CO2 injection increased pore pressure in the
rocks, so when stress was relieved it was followed by uplift of about 1
inch at the surface...
Radar analysis by the SMU team detected rapid subsidence ranging from
three-fourths of an inch to nearly 4 inches around active wells,
abandoned wells and orphaned wells...
http://blog.smu.edu/research/2018/03/20/radar-images-show-large-swath-of-texas-oil-patch-is-heaving-and-sinking-at-alarming-rates/
[video, diplomacy]
*Should the UN Security Council take up climate change and if so how?
Interview with Prof. Ken Conca <https://youtu.be/1IwjwkKW_X0>*
Adelphi, Berlin Published on Mar 12, 2018
The UN Security Council is under increasing pressure to incorporate
climate threats under its global security umbrella. Ken Conca, Professor
of International Relations at the American University, highlights
current barriers for the UNSC to take up the issue and suggests steps to
a transformation of the body.
The Climate Diplomacy initiative is a collaborative effort of the German
Federal Foreign Office in partnership with adelphi
(http://www.climate-diplomacy.org).
Subscribe to the newsletter here: http://bit.ly/subscribeECC
Follow Climate Diplomacy on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ClimateDiplo
- - - - -
"So there have been several proposals to try to get the Security Council
more active and engaged on the question of climate change. One thing our
work shows it that there are a few really difficult challenges to doing
that more effectively.
First, the Council really struggles with information flows. It does not
have any independent capacity to generate good analyses and information.
The countries on the Council that do have that capacity often don't
share that information and information is shared very poorly with other
parts of the United Nations system. For example the humanitarian organs.
Second problem is: the Council is almost inevitably a reactive body. And
so much of the climate security agenda is preventive. What we keep
hearing when we talk to people in and around the Council is that until
crisis hits, until refugees start showing up its very difficult to know
what it is that the Council could do.
And a third problem is many other countries around the Council are very
weary of seeing it intrude upon the responsibilities of other parts of
the UN system, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Chance, the
activities of some of the specialised agencies. There is lots of
suspicion about the Council as being a hierarchical, unrepresentative
body. And there is a strong preference on the part of many countries to
move climate conversations into the more legitimate parts of the United
Nations. Those that are governed by the climate change convention for
example....
https://youtu.be/1IwjwkKW_X0
[science overview video]
*2017 Fall Meeting - U23A: Climate Science Special Report
<https://youtu.be/fDJP5RgKkj4?t=9m25s>*
U23A: Climate Science Special Report: An Assessment of the Science
Focusing on the United States
Tuesday, 12 December 2017 13:40 - 15:40
Donald J Wuebbles, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign
Patrick C Taylor, NASA Langley Research Center
David R Easterling, NOAA Asheville
Robert E Kopp, Rutgers University, Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences
Michael F Wehner, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Benjamin Joseph DeAngelo, US Global Change Research Program
https://youtu.be/fDJP5RgKkj4?t=9m25s
*This Day in Climate History - March 25, 2005
<March%2025,%202005:%20In%20a%20Boston%20Globe%20column%20later%20republished%20in%20the%20New%20York%20Times,%20Derrick%20Z.%20Jackson%20notes,%20%22Every%20time%20the%20world%20calls%20for%20action%20on%20climate%20change,%20the%20United%20States%20emits%20more%20White%20House%20gases.%22,,http://archive.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2005/03/25/hot_air_and_global_warming/>
- from D.R. Tucker*
March 25, 2005: In a Boston Globe column later republished in the New
York Times, Derrick Z. Jackson notes, "Every time the world calls for
action on climate change, the United States emits more White House gases."
Earlier in the month, the former chief scientific adviser to the
British government, Lord May of Oxford, bluntly compared Bush to a
modern-day Nero. Last fall, British Prime Minister Tony Blair said,
''If what the science tells about climate change is correct, then
unabated it will result in catastrophic consequences for our world.
The science almost certainly is correct."
At the recent London conference, Brown said, ''Environmental issues
including climate change have traditionally been placed in a
category separate from the economy and from economic policy. But
this is no longer tenable. Across a range of environmental issues,
from soil erosion to the depletion of marine stocks, from water
scarcity to air pollution, it is clear now not just that economic
activity is their cause, but that these problems in themselves
threaten future economic activity and growth."
Nero and his fiddlers would hear none of that. Asked last month what
the science was on global warming, Connaughton said on CNBC, ''There
are many different views."
The science ceased to have many views years ago. The very first
sentence in the executive summary of the 2001 National Academies of
Science report on climate change begins with, ''Greenhouse gases are
accumulating in Earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities .
. . " The report further said, ''Global warming could well have
serious adverse societal and ecological impacts by the end of this
century." The science continues to choke under the White House effect.
http://archive.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2005/03/25/hot_air_and_global_warming
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