[TheClimate.Vote] May 5, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Sat May 5 12:10:15 EDT 2018
/May 5, 2018/
[A brief polar jamboree ended]
*North Pole campers pack up after shortest ice drift ever
<https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2018/04/north-pole-campers-pack-after-shortest-ice-drift-ever>*
The ice became too thin and the cracks too many. This year's Barneo
North Pole base existed only 12 days.
By Atle Staalesen - April 26, 2018
'That is all, we are finishing this season", said camp organizer Irina
Orlova on 25th April. 'The whole crew has returned to Longyearbyen, and
will proceed to Murmansk", she added in a social media post.
<https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001774757853>
It became the shortest ice drift in the 16 years history of the Barneo
camps. The camp officially opened on 13th April and was abandoned only
12 days later.
Similarly, the ice drift of the campers was shorter than ever. The
Barneo-2018 drifted only about half the distance of the Barneo-2017.
Only few years ago, the duration and ice drift of the Barneo was far
more comprehensive. In 2015, the drift lasted 27 days and the distance
was about three times longer.
'This year's season was short, but we still managed to do everything as
planned," Orlova says on her Facebook page. During the short life of
Barneo 2018, the ice base served as starting point for the North Pole
Marathon, various research activities and two groups with tourists.
Several groups used the camp for their North Pole expeditions, among
them the 19 students from Moscow who took part in an expedition
organized by explorer Matvey Shparo, and the Young Explorers NORTH
Expedition
<https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/2018/03/4-year-old-boy-soon-his-way-north-pole>.
On the 18th April, as many as 70 people were on their way from Barneo to
the North Pole point, says Orlova.
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2018/04/north-pole-campers-pack-after-shortest-ice-drift-ever
[studying unstable ice]
*Unprecedented U.S.-British project launches to study the world's most
dangerous glacier
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/04/30/unprecedented-u-s-british-project-launches-to-study-the-worlds-most-dangerous-glacier/>*
West Antarctica's Thwaites glacier - a Florida-size ice body that,
scientists fear, could flood the world's coastlines in our lifetimes.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/04/30/unprecedented-u-s-british-project-launches-to-study-the-worlds-most-dangerous-glacier/
- - - -
[Video - very advanced academic seminar - paleo-cryology] [explains why
underwater continental shelves are so steep]
*Abrupt climate and sea level changes A view from the past | Dr Lauren
Gregoire <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlHcHO4rhAg>*
Grantham Imperial - Published on Feb 15, 2018
A seminar organised by students of the Science and Solutions for a
Changing Planet DTP, with Dr Lauren Gregoire, Academic Research Fellow
at the University of Leeds.
Dr Gregoire is an Earth System modeller interested in interactions
between climate ice and the carbon cycle in the past, present and
future. Her research focuses on ice sheet and climate processes involved
in ice sheet collapse and rapid sea level rise. One of her current
projects aims at modelling interactions between sea level changes and
marine ice sheet instability.
Abstract
The last deglaciation (21-7 ka), the period of transition out of the
last ice age, was punctuated by several abrupt climate and sea level
changes, in which ice sheets are thought to have played an important
role. Studying these events, with geological data and numerical
modelling, opens a window on how and how fast ice sheets and climate can
change. This seminar will describe mechanism of ice sheet instability
and how these have led to major episodes of sea level and climate
change, such as Henrich Stadial 1, Meltwater Pulse 1a and the 8.2 kyr
event. We will also discuss how models and data can be brought together
to quantify uncertainties in past and future environmental changes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlHcHO4rhAg
[H2O in SW US]
*The water war that will decide the fate of 1 in 8 Americans
<https://grist.org/article/the-water-war-that-will-decide-the-fate-of-1-in-8-americans/?>*
By Eric Holthaus
Lake Mead is the country's biggest reservoir of water. Think of it as
the savings account for the entire Southwest. Right now, that savings
account is nearly overdrawn.
For generations, we've been using too much of the Colorado River, the
300-foot-wide ribbon of water that carved the Grand Canyon, supplies
Lake Mead, and serves as the main water source for much of the American
West.
The river sustains one in eight Americans - about 40 million people -
and millions of acres of farmland. In the next 40 years, the region is
expected to addat least 10 million more people
<https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/crbstudy/TechMemoC/TMCreport.pdf>,
as the region's rainfall becomes more erratic.
An especially dismal snowpack this past winter has forced a
long-simmering dispute over water rights to the fore, one that splits
people living above and below Lake Mead...
- - - - -
For now, the spat over the Colorado River offers a glimpse into water
politics in an era of permanent scarcity. The low snowpack in the upper
basin states means that inflows into Lake Mead will be just43 percent of
normal
<https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-environment/2018/04/04/colorado-river-forecasters-look-6th-driest-runoff-year-after-dry-winter/484024002/>this
year, raising the stakes for conservation programs throughout the West.
In the midst of long-running drought,2017 was the most successful year
for water conservation in decades
<http://www.inkstain.net/fleck/2018/04/2017-lower-colorado-river-basin-water-use-the-lowest-in-a-quarter-century/>-
which is evidence that when there's less water around, people can make
things work.
"We must all find a way to collectively use less water while respecting
the Law of the River,"Sorensen says. "That's of course a tricky
proposition because the Law of the River is basically the most complex
governance structure ever created by human beings."
https://grist.org/article/the-water-war-that-will-decide-the-fate-of-1-in-8-americans/?
Quarterly report from Carbon Brief
*State of the climate: Warm start to 2018 despite La Nina conditions
<https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-warm-start-to-2018-despite-la-nina-conditions>*
GLOBAL TEMPERATURE 1 May 2018
The first three months of 2018 have been between the fourth and sixth
warmest first quarter on record since 1880. This is despite a modest La
Nina event leading to a relatively cooler start to the year, compared to
recent record warmth.
Overall, 2018 is on track to be the fourth warmest year on record after
2016, 2017, and 2015, but depending on how the rest of the year shapes
up it could be as high as the second warmest, or as low as the 12th warmest.
In the latest quarterly "state of the climate" report, Carbon Brief
reviews the various metrics for 2018 to date and looks ahead at what the
rest of the year might bring.
A cooler start to 2018
Global surface temperatures have warmedabout 1.1C
<https://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2017/defining-pre-industrial/>since
pre-industrial times and0.8C since the 1970s
<https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/>. Despite this long-term warming
trend, each year does not necessarily set a new record for warmth.
Short-term variations in the Earth's climate associated withEl Nino and
La Nina events
<https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-much-did-el-nino-boost-global-temperature-in-2015>help
make some years warmer and some cooler.
For example, 2016 was exceptionally warm with help from a strong El Nino
event. In contrast, 2017 was largely "neutral", having no strong El Nino
or La Nina conditions. The start of 2018, on the other hand, has been
cooled by amodest La Nina event
<https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/el-ni%C3%B1o-la-ni%C3%B1a-update-march-2018>.
Whilescientists predict
<https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/>that
the La Nina will fade and switch back to El Nino conditions in the
coming months, it will only have a modest effect on 2018 as surface
temperaturestend to lag
<http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022/meta>El
Nino and La Nina conditions by a few months.
Temperatures in the first quarter of 2018 have been between the fourth
and sixth warmest on record since 1880...
more at:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-warm-start-to-2018-despite-la-nina-conditions
[Policy Analysis Article]
*The effectiveness of climate clubs under Donald Trump
<https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2017.1410090>*
ABSTRACT
On 1 June 2017, President Trump announced that the US intends to
leave the Paris Agreement if no alternative terms acceptable to his
administration can be agreed upon. In this article, an agent-based
model of bottom-up climate mitigation clubs is used to derive the
impact that lack of US participation may have on the membership of
such clubs and their emissions coverage. We systematically analyse
the prospects for climate mitigation clubs, depending on which of
three conceivable roles the US takes on: as a leader (for
benchmarking), as a follower (i.e. willing to join climate
mitigation clubs initiated by others if this is in its best
interest) or as an outsider (i.e. staying outside of any climate
mitigation club no matter what). We investigate these prospects for
three types of incentives for becoming a member: club goods,
conditional commitments and side-payments. Our results show that
lack of US leadership significantly constrains climate clubs'
potential. Lack of US willingness to follow others' lead is an
additional, but smaller constraint. Only in a few cases will US
withdrawal entail widespread departures by other countries. We
conclude that climate mitigation clubs can function without the
participation of an important GHG emitter, given that other major
emitters show leadership, although these clubs will rarely cover
more than 50% of global emissions.
*Key policy insights*
The US switching from being a leader to being a follower substantially
reduces the emissions coverage of climate mitigation clubs.
- The US switching from being a follower to being an outsider sometimes
reduces coverage further, but has a smaller impact than the switch from
leader to follower.
- The switch from follower to outsider only occasionally results in
widespread departures by other countries; in a few instances it even
entices others to join.
- Climate mitigation clubs can function even without the participation
of the US, provided that other major emitters show leadership; however,
such clubs will typically be unable to cover more than 50% of global
emissions.
- Climate mitigation clubs may complement the Paris Agreement and can
also serve as an alternative in case Paris fails...
more at: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2017.1410090
[Webinar May 24th]
*Increasing regulatory pressures to address climate-related risks.
Demand for science-based climate metrics is rising. Are you ready?
<https://www.crowdcast.io/e/the-net-is-tightening->*
Tune in for a webinar directed at legal practitioners, rating providers
and financial actors, looking for legal direction. We'll walk you
through the sources and recent happenings leading to requests for
science-based climate metrics.
Hannah and Marcela will guide you through:
- How to calculate and disclose your specific contribution to climate
change?
- How to prepare for stricter regulation demanding climate disclosures?
- How to reduce liability exposure when using scenario analysis?
more at: https://www.crowdcast.io/e/the-net-is-tightening-
[another conclusion, well, duh]
*No future for egoists -- that's what their brain says!
<https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/04/180425120245.htm>*
*Researchers analysed the cerebral activity of egotistical people,
discovering that they do not think about the future if it seems too far
off to concern them*
Date: April 25, 2018 - Source: Universite de Geneve
Some people are worried about the future consequences of climate change,
while others consider them too remote to have an impact on their
well-being. Researchers at the University of Geneva (UNIGE),
Switzerland, examined how these differences are reflected in our brains.
With the help of neuro-imaging, the scientists found that people deemed
"egotistical" do not use the area of the brain that enables us to look
into and imagine the distant future. In "altruistic" individuals, on the
other hand, the same area is alive with activity. The research results,
published in the journal Cognitive, Affective & Behavioural
Neuroscience, may help psychologists devise exercises that put this
specific area of the brain to work. These could be used to improve
people's ability to project themselves into the future and raise their
awareness of, for example, the effects of climate change.
- - - - -
Set your projection capabilities to work
These outcomes, which can be applied to areas other than climate change,
demonstrate the importance of being able to think about the distant
future in order to adapt one's behaviour to the future constraints of
the world. "We could imagine a psychological training that would work on
this brain area using projection exercises," suggests Brosch. "In
particular, we could use virtual reality, which would make the
tomorrow's world visible to everyone, bringing human beings closer to
the consequences of their actions."
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/04/180425120245.htm
[book release at climate talks]
We're pleased to announce the publication of our new book:
*_Governing Climate Change: Polycentricity in Action?_
<http://www.cambridge.org/gb/academic/subjects/earth-and-environmental-science/environmental-policy-economics-and-law/governing-climate-change-polycentricity-action?format=HB&isbn=9781108418126#4gzaOyzS1vXUwLtD.97>
/Edited by Andrew Jordan, Dave Huitema, Harro van Asselt and Johanna
Forster, / Cambridge University Press.*
*Available in Hardback and Open Access*
<http://www.cambridge.org/gb/academic/subjects/earth-and-environmental-science/environmental-policy-economics-and-law/governing-climate-change-polycentricity-action?format=HB&isbn=9781108418126#opo6JACaPqr95w95.97>*.
ISBN 9781108418126*
Climate change governance is in a state of enormous flux. New and more
dynamic forms of governing are appearing around the international
climate regime centred on the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC). Some appear to be emerging spontaneously,
producing a more dispersed pattern of governing, which Nobel Prize
laureate Elinor Ostrom described as 'polycentric'.
This new 20-chapter book with Cambridge University Press brings together
contributions from 40 of the world's foremost experts to provide the
first systematic test of the ability of polycentric thinking to explain
and enhance societal attempts to govern climate change.
It provides
- The first systematic application of polycentric theory in the area of
climate change, offering a much more realistic appreciation of the
potential and limits of polycentric governing
- A novel attempt to comprehend climate governance as a single, evolving
system, rather than a series of isolated parts
- Many fresh insights by a diverse team of international experts on the
most significant domains and processes of governing
With expert contributions from:
Harriet Bulkeley, Michele Betsill, Thomas Hale, Matthew Hoffmann, Peter
Newell, Matthew Paterson, Jan-Peter Vor, Elin Lerum Boasson, Duncan
Liefferink, Jale Tosun, Philipp Pattberg, Sander Chan, Oscar Widerberg,
Kenneth W. Abbott, Katja Biedenkopf, Jorgen Wettestad, Steven Bernstein
and Liliana B. Andonova
Pre-publication praise:
"brings [an] important conceptual debate to a higher level…. This
superbly edited volume is an essential collection for both theorists and
practitioners of modern global climate governance." Prof Frank Biermann
"delivers an excellent critical assessment, markedly advances the
state-of-the-art, and provides a systematic and inspiring basis for
future research." Prof Sebastian Oberthür
"a major contribution to the critical debate … on polycentric
governance…. [B]reaks inspiring new ground in the vitally important
project of governing climate change." Prof Tiffany H. Morrison
*Further details:
**http://www.cambridge.org/gb/academic/subjects/earth-and-environmental-science/environmental-policy-economics-and-law/governing-climate-change-polycentricity-action?format=HB&isbn=9781108418126#opo6JACaPqr95w95.97*
The book is linked to a *Massive Open Online Course (MOOC)* developed by
the Open University of the Netherlands, launching in May 2018. For
further details about the MOOC or the INOGOV network on innovations in
climate policy governance, click here <https://inogov.eu>.
*To join the INOGOV network* and receive information about many other
outputs click here
<http://inogov.us9.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=e9f15f2620fc0790ae1c65183&id=5e80d9fe79>.
[2 minute video message to children ]
*The Future We See <https://youtu.be/1m-4xbyZGDE>*
Published 2017 Grantham Imperial
The Paris Agreement has galvanised global commitment to taking strong
action on climate change. To limit the average global temperature rise
to two degrees Celcius, the future will involve a mix of new
technologies, business scenarios and personal decisions. The Grantham
Institute is working with policymakers, business leaders and researchers
to evaluate decarbonisation pathways and help make the transition to a
low-carbon future. Find out more on our website:
www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham/our-work/mitigation/the-path-to-a-low-carbon-future
Expect the Unexpected: the Disruptive Power of Low-carbon Technology, is
a report produced by the Grantham Institute in partnership with Carbon
Tracker Initiative. It explores the disruptive power of low-carbon
technology by looking at how ongoing cost reductions could see solar
photovoltaics (PV) and electric vehicles (EVs) impact future demand for
coal, oil and gas.
https://youtu.be/1m-4xbyZGDE
- - - -
[very mature messages ]
*Expect the unexpected: The disruptive power of low-carbon technology
<http://www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham/publications/expect-the-unexpected-the-disruptive-power-of-low-carbon-technology.php>*
Topics: Mitigation
Type: Collaborative publications
Publication date: February 2017
Download *Expect the unexpected: The disruptive power of low-carbon
technology [PDF]
<http://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/grantham-institute/public/publications/collaborative-publications/Expect-the-Unexpected_CTI_Imperial.pdf>*
Summary:
Achieving climate stability will require deep and widespread changes
in the global energy sector. Fossil fuel industry projections,
however, continue to present a future energy system that is very
similar to that of today. This is in spite of recent examples of
disruption in the energy sector at the hands of the low-carbon
transition, namely for EU utilities and the US coal sector.
This scenario analysis was produced in partnership between Carbon
Tracker and the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London and
explores the extent to which ongoing cost reductions could see solar
photovoltaics (PV) and electric vehicles (EVs) impact future demand
for coal, oil and gas. The findings of this study should motivate
energy companies and their investors to retire the use of
business-as-usual scenarios (BAU) and further integrate the
consideration of downside demand scenarios.
Following the launch of this report, the Grantham Institute hosted a
workshop that convened energy modellers, analysts and researchers from a
range of organisations to discuss the changing face of 'business as
usual' and reference scenarios in energy modelling.
http://www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham/publications/expect-the-unexpected-the-disruptive-power-of-low-carbon-technology.php
- - - -
[arcane study of business as usual]
To find out more, download the workshop notes: BAU energy modelling
workshop - discussion notes [pdf]
<http://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/grantham-institute/public/website/BAU-workshop-5-July-2017.pdf>
[wanderers, close-to-the land]
*The vulnerability of pastoralism to climate change
<http://www.aguanomics.com/2018/05/the-vulnerability-of-pastoralism-to.html>*
Posted: 04 May 2018 - Pieter writes:
Central to our response to climate change, at any scale and in any form,
should be an understanding vulnerability. A group is vulnerable [pdf]
<http://dismalmoron.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Vulnerability.pdf>when
it is "susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects". Most
definitions of vulnerability stress three variables:
Exposure: the magnitude, frequency, duration, and geographical
coverage of environmental pressures experienced.
Sensitivity: the extent to which social equilibria are altered or
affected by change.
Adaptive capacity: the ability to evolve to accommodate changes in
the environment and to increase the scope of the variability it can
cope with.
I argue that pastoralist livelihoods are particularly vulnerable to
climate change, referring to the case of the Maasai in Kenya and
Tanzania for empirical support. It is worth identifying the two
fundamental characteristics of pastoralism
<http://www.fao.org/wairdocs/ILRI/x5510E/x5510e02.htm>: animal husbandry
and nomadism. The Maasai are well known
<https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fvets.2015.00046/full> for
owning cows, goats, and sheep, and today still roam a total of 160,000
km2. <http://www.maasai-association.org/maasai.html> It is these
features that underlie the vulnerability of pastoralism.
*A Maasai in Nairobi*
To sustain their livestock, pastoralists tend to live in rural
environments that allow for free movement to locations with sufficient
natural resources. This lifestyle involves greater exposure to climate
patterns, and the Maasai are severely impacted by draughts for example.
Currently East Africa, and Kenya in particular, faces a draught
<https://reliefweb.int/disaster/dr-2014-000131-ken> [drought] that has
persisted since 2016, with higher temperatures, a longer duration, and
greater geographical range relative to previous occurrences.
The Maasai livelihood is sensitive to increasingly intense climate
change. The draught has substantively reduced
<https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-anthro-091908-164442>
the area suitable for grazing cattle, forcing sedentism and diminishing
the viability of maintaining livestock. In other words, the existence of
pastoralism as an identity and as a livelihood strategy is under attack.
Maasai are above all people-of-cattle
<https://anthrosource.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1525/ae.1982.9.1.02a00010>,
and it is thought that all other values originate from this central
commitment. Additionally, the quantity of livestock is an important
determinant of social status and wealth. Lastly, their cattle provide
<https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00141844.1987.9981349>
nutrition, as well as financial capital for food, tuition fees, and
other basic necessities. Therefore, pastoralism is undermined by the
decrease in natural, social, and financial capital as a consequence of
changes in climate, demonstrating its sensitivity.
Finally, the adaptive capacity of individual pastoralists themselves is
likely to be sufficient. The Maasai, for example, are progressively
becoming educated
<https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09540253.2016.1156061>,
preparing children for employment in formal economic sectors.
Alternatively, people migrate
<https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/e/9781136029127/chapters/10.4324%2F9780203798416-12>to
nearby cities (e.g. Nairobi and Arusha), start agricultural cultivation,
or trade in goods like charcoal and sand. However, these forms of income
diversification come at the cost of a pastoral livelihood, threatening
its preservation as a way of life.
Bottom line: Pastoralist livelihoods are vulnerable to climate change as
its fundamental characteristics are exposed and sensitive to
environmental pressures, while adaptation comes at the cost of their
traditional lifestyle.
http://www.aguanomics.com/2018/05/the-vulnerability-of-pastoralism-to.html
*This Day in Climate History - May 5, 2014
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/for-president-obama-a-renewed-focus-on-climate/2014/05/04/6b81412c-d144-11e3-9e25-188ebe1fa93b_story.html?hpid=z1>
- from D.R. Tucker*
May 5, 2014, The Washington Post reports:
"After years of putting other policy priorities first — and
dismaying many liberal allies in the process — Obama is now getting
into the weeds on climate change and considers it one of the key
components of his legacy, according to aides and advisers.
"He is regularly briefed on scientific reports on the issue,
including a national climate assessment that he will help showcase
Tuesday. He is using his executive authority to cut greenhouse gas
emissions from power plants and other sources, and is moving ahead
with stricter fuel-efficiency standards for the heaviest trucks.
"And while he routinely brings up climate change in closed-door
meetings with world leaders, according to his aides, he also
discusses it in his private life, talking about global warming’s
implications with his teenage daughters."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/for-president-obama-a-renewed-focus-on-climate/2014/05/04/6b81412c-d144-11e3-9e25-188ebe1fa93b_story.html?hpid=z1
http://www.msnbc.com/now-with-alex-wagner/watch/white-house-to-release-climate-assessment-247391811973
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