[TheClimate.Vote] May 27, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Sun May 27 10:14:11 EDT 2018
/May 27, 2018/
[Desdemona Despair]
Brazil drought - 24 May 2018
*Sao Paulo faces another drought as Brazil's second corn crop yields 10
million tons less than last season - "We have learned little or nothing
from the crisis"
<http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2018/05/sao-paulo-faces-another-drought-as.html>*
By Roberto Samora and Ana Mano
SAO PAULO (Reuters) - A severe drought has compromised Brazil's second
corn, the country's largest crop of the cereal, which is now expected to
be 10 million tonnes lower than last season, consultancy Agroconsult
said on Thursday.
The firm, which is leading a crop tour of Brazil's top producing areas,
forecast the second corn crop will likely fall to around 57 million
tonnes, reducing its previous view by more than 3 million tonnes.
Brazil's second corn, which is planted after soybeans, accounts for
roughly 70 percent of the country's entire production and make it the
world's third largest producer after the United States and China.
"The drought eased," said Andre Pessoa, partner at Agroconsult, during
an event in Sao Paulo, referring to dryness during April and early May,
which caused significant losses.
Still, he said Agroconsult's estimate may be cut further pending a
survey of fields in producing states like Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do
Sul, Paraná and Goiás....]
More at
http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2018/05/sao-paulo-faces-another-drought-as.html
- - - -
*Sao Paulo Heading To Another Dry Spell
<http://www.circleofblue.org/2018/water-climate/drought/sao-paulo-heading-to-another-dry-spell/>*
March 7, 2018/in Cities, Drought, Pollution, South America, Water
Management /by Kayla Ritter
Three years after the megacity nearly ran out of water, signs of a new
crisis emerge.
http://www.circleofblue.org/2018/water-climate/drought/sao-paulo-heading-to-another-dry-spell/
[Word vectors]
*Linguistic analysis shows oil companies are giving up on climate change
<https://qz.com/1276282/corporate-social-responsibility-reports-show-oil-companies-becoming-passive-about-climate-change-say-linguists/>*
Oil companies don't like talking about climate change. As the prime
movers of fossil fuels, they'd probably prefer not to mention it at all.
But sometimes outside pressure forces companies to do things they don't
like.
That's where "corporate social responsibility" (CSR) reports come in.
Issued annually by many large companies, these reports assess
performance on measures that go beyond the bottom line, like
environmental protection or human rights.
Oil companies don't have to release CSRs, but more than three-quarters
of them do anyway. This is where they address the hairy issue of climate
change, caused in no small part by their own products. It's a topic
they'd probably rather avoid, and increasingly, that's exactly what
they're doing.
These companies are mentioning the phrase "climate change" less and less
in their social responsibility reports, as the chart below shows. It's
the result of a new paper by Sylvia Jaworska, a linguist at the
University of Reading in the UK.
Jaworska created a dataset comprising the CSRs of every major oil
company that produces them, from 2000 to 2013. Altogether, it includes
294 reports, and nearly 15 million words from the likes of Gazprom,
Exxon, BP, Sinopec, Norsk, and others.
Beyond the "climate change" drop, the paper has several interesting
findings. It shows, for example, that these companies really don't like
the term "global warming," which is almost never used, except for a
brief jump in 2001. "Warming," after all, sounds worse than nondescript
"change."
More generally, Jaworska's results reveal that oil companies are
gradually becoming more passive about climate change. It's not just that
they are using the term less; they're literally using more passive
language around the term "climate change."
Jaworska parsed out the terms that frequently appear next to or near
"climate change" in these reports, or "collocations," as linguists call
them. At the peak of the chart, when companies were mentioning climate
change more often, collocations showed a relatively active approach to
global warming. The most frequently used word, for example, was "combat."
But as the term "climate change" began to decline in use, the top
collocations became "convention" and "risks."
"Risks" is interesting. The rise of that term shows that oil companies
are presenting climate change less as an environmental issue and more as
a threat to their industry, Jaworska suggests. One report says, "The
raising awareness of the risks connected to climate change can seriously
affect energy demand," not mentioning its possible effect on humans or
nature...
- - - -
Oil companies indisputably play a role in causing climate change. But
judging by the way they discuss climate change in their CSRs, they're
less and less sure about their role in stopping it.
https://qz.com/1276282/corporate-social-responsibility-reports-show-oil-companies-becoming-passive-about-climate-change-say-linguists/
[Racism joins denialism]
*The Weekend Wonk: Weaponizing the Worst in US
<https://climatecrocks.com/2018/05/26/the-weekend-wonk-weaponizing-the-worst-in-us/>*
https://climatecrocks.com/2018/05/26/the-weekend-wonk-weaponizing-the-worst-in-us/
Environmental Politics:
<https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09644016.2018.1457287?journalCode=fenp20>
*The spillover of race and racial attitudes into public opinion about
climate change
<https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09644016.2018.1457287?journalCode=fenp20&>*
Salil D. Benegal
Abstract:
The relationship between racial attitudes and public opinion about
climate change is examined. Public opinion data from Pew and
American National Election Studies surveys are used to show that
racial identification and prejudices are increasingly correlated
with opinions about climate change during the Obama presidency.
Results show that racial identification became a significant
predictor of climate change concern following Obama's election in
2008, and that high levels of racial resentment are strongly
correlated with reduced agreement with the scientific consensus on
climate change. These results offer evidence for an effect termed
the spillover of racialization. This helps further explain why the
public remains so polarized on climate change, given the extent to
which racial grievances and identities have become entangled with
elite communication about climate change and its related policies today.
- - -
*Elite Domination of Public Doubts About Climate Change (Not Evolution)
<https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10584609.2017.1380092?src=recsys>*
Michael Tesler
Politically attentive conservatives, in fact, were more likely to
believe scientists about global warming than liberals were in the 1990s
before the media depicted climate change as a partisan issue. The United
States is also the only nation where political interest significantly
predicts both conservatives' skepticism about, and liberals' belief in,
climate change. Finally, evidence from a national survey experiment
suggests that Americans would be less skeptical of manmade global
warming if more Republicans in Congress believed in it, but a growing
Congressional consensus about evolution would not diminish doubts about
its existence.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10584609.2017.1380092?src=recsys
[Scientists talk about less-than-zero carbon emissions]
*Negative emissions: Scientists meet in Sweden for first international
conference
<https://www.carbonbrief.org/negative-emissions-scientists-meet-sweden-first-international-conference>*
This week, Gothenburg in Sweden played host to the first international
conference on "negative emissions".
The three-day event brought together around 250 researchers at Chalmers
University of Technology to discuss the different ways to remove CO2
from the atmosphere and store it on land, underground or in the oceans.
The topics presented and debated ranged from "natural" solutions to the
technologically advanced, through to the potential limitations and
risks. Running parallel to the scientific discussions was a focus on the
policy challenges.
Eva Svedling, Sweden's secretary of state for development and climate,
marked the occasion by launching a public enquiry into the potential for
forests, soil and bioenergy to provide carbon removal for the country.
Sweden already has a legally binding target to reach net-zero carbon
emissions by 2045.
Carbon Brief was at the conference to watch the 11 keynote speeches, 140
presentations and three panel debates. A range of presenters, such as Dr
James Hansen and Dr Sabine Fuss, was asked on camera (see below) what
they each think is needed for negative emissions to become a reality at
scale...
- - - -
The "feasibility" of negative emissions was routinely raised by
presenters and questions from the floor. Policymakers, if they are to
implement regulations and incentives enabling NETs to be rolled out at
the scale the modellers indicate are required, need to know answers to
some key questions: which NETs work best? How much will they cost? Where
should they be located? What are the trade-offs and side-effects? How
can societies be persuaded they are required? How can their performance
be monitored and verified?
[Video ] https://youtu.be/BSFMYGKDHAo
*How can negative emissions become a reality at scale?
<https://youtu.be/BSFMYGKDHAo>*
Carbon Brief - Published on May 25, 2018
Carbon Brief asked attendees at The International Conference on Negative
CO2 Emissions 2018, in Gothenburg, "What needs to happen for negative
emissions to become a reality at scale?"
https://www.carbonbrief.org/negative-emissions-scientists-meet-sweden-first-international-conference
With contributions from (in order of appearance):
Dr James Hansen, director of Climate Science, Awareness and
Solutions at Earth Institute, Columbia University 0:00 - 1:26
Prof Sally Benson, professor of Energy Resources Engineering,
Stanford Precourt Institute of Energy, Stanford University 1:27 - 3:00
Dr Florian Kraxner, deputy program director of Ecosystems Services
and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis 3:01 - 4:41
Dr Duncan McLaren, research fellow at Lancaster Environment Centre,
Lancaster University 4:42 - 5:48
Dr Silke Beck, Department of Environmental Politics,
Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung, UFZ 5:49 - 7:54
Dr Sabine Fuss, head of working group Sustainable Resource
Management and Global Change, Mercator Research Institute on Global
Commons and Climate Change 7:55 - 9:48
Dr Rob Bellamy, research fellow at the Institute for Science,
Innovation and Society, University of Oxford 9:49 - 11:51
Prof Detlef van Vuuren, professor of Integrated Assessment of Global
Environment Change at the Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University
11:52 - 13:10
Our Creative Commons license: you are welcome to reproduce unadapted
material in full for non-commercial use, credited 'Carbon Brief' with a
link to the original article.
http://carbonbrief.org
https://www.carbonbrief.org/negative-emissions-scientists-meet-sweden-first-international-conference
[Do not scratch]
*What you need to know about Lyme disease this summer
<https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/news/what-you-need-know-about-lyme-disease-summer>*
By Nina Bai, UCSF
May marks the beginning of the summer season when black-legged ticks
that spread Lyme disease are more prevalent - even in California.
Earlier this month, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
(CDC) reported that cases of tickborne diseases had more than doubled
from 2004 to 2016, from 22,000 to 48,000, and that Lyme disease
accounted for 82 percent of tickborne diseases.
Moreover, due to underreporting, the actual number of Lyme disease cases
is estimated to be significantly higher - likely more than 350,000 in 2016.
We talked to infectious disease expert Charles Chiu, M.D., Ph.D., about
the rise in Lyme disease cases, better diagnostic tests on the horizon
and what you need to know to protect yourself from infection. Chiu is an
associate professor of laboratory medicine and medicine and director of
the UCSF-Abbott Viral Diagnostics and Discovery Center.
*How common is Lyme disease in California? And why have rates been
increasing?*
In terms of reported cases, there are about 80 to 100 a year in the
state. Residents in or travelers to the northwestern coastal counties -
Trinity, Humboldt, and Mendocino - are at highest risk. But because of
underreporting, the actual number of Lyme disease cases likely exceeds
1,000 cases a year, simply because most cases of Lyme disease are not
reported.
There are several potential reasons why rates have increased in
California and nationwide. One is globalization. People travel
extensively, and for instance, someone could get infected while on the
East Coast and come back with Lyme disease.
Another reason is climate change, in that the geographic range of the
tick vector, which is the Ixodesor black-legged tick, has expanded
westward from the northeast United States as well as southward year
after year. For ticks to be maintained in nature, they need to have what
we call an animal reservoir, essentially a mammal such as a squirrel or
rodent that can harbor Borrelia burgdorferi - the bacterium in the tick
that causes Lyme disease. Therefore, expansion of the animal reservoir
is also another reason for increasing Lyme disease rates. On the East
Coast, the reservoir is the white-footed mouse. In California, the
Western gray squirrel harbors the bacterium. Lizards, while not a
reservoir for B. burgdorferi, are common hosts for the black-legged tick
in California so increase the risk of infections to humans by
maintaining the tick population in the wild.
*How is Lyme disease transmitted, and is it contagious between humans?*
B. burgdorferi causes asymptomatic infection in these small mammal
reservoirs. When the ticks feed on mammals carrying B. burgdorferi,
these ticks get infected. They can then transmit the infection to humans.
However, humans are considered a dead-end host because the efficiency of
transmitting the bacterium to other humans is extremely low. The period
during which you can find the bacterium in blood is very brief,
generally a few days at most, and blood-borne transmission of B.
burgdorferi, such as by transfusion, has never been reported. B.
burgdorferi is also not excreted in other body fluids such as sweat,
urine, saliva, or respiratory secretions. Lyme disease is therefore not
considered contagious.
*Compared to other infections, is Lyme disease more difficult to detect
and diagnose?*
It does appear that Lyme disease is harder to diagnose, and it's because
the Borrelia burgdorferivery rapidly leaves the blood and disseminates
into the lymph nodes and into tissues. As a result, blood tests for
early Lyme disease have low sensitivity.
*Why is it important to accurately diagnose Lyme disease?*
Timely and accurate diagnosis of Lyme disease can help prevent potential
complications, which include encephalitis, a brain infection;
myocarditis, a heart infection; or endocarditis, a heart valve infection.
*Is it true that it takes at least 24 hours for a tick to transmit Lyme
disease to you?*
Yes, this is true. The CDC recommends that patients who notice the tick
and remove it within 24 hours do not need antibiotic prophylaxis with
doxycycline to prevent Lyme disease transmission. The tick typically
needs to be on you, basically sucking your blood and attached to you for
36 to 48 hours, during which the B. burgdorferi migrates from the tick
gut to its salivary glands, before it can transmit the Lyme pathogen.
*So it's definitely important to find the ticks early and get them off you.*
Yes, I recommend that after you go hiking or camping or are otherwise
potentially exposed to ticks, that you always do a tick check. The ticks
that are most likely to transmit the bacterium are young nymphal ticks.
They're about the size of a poppy seed, so they're extremely small.
*Be careful of the grass - ticks like to "quest."*
Ticks do not jump or fly. What they do is called "questing," which means
that they wait at the ends of grass or foliage and when you brush by,
they'll immediately latch onto your leg or onto your clothing. But you
really need to conduct a tick check all over your body because you won't
necessarily get bitten by the tick where the grass contracted your leg.
Ticks can crawl to your armpit or groin and bite there, for instance.
*What percentage of black-legged ticks carry Lyme?*
It can be fairly high, anywhere from 2 percent to 15 percent among
nymphal ticks in California, depending on the geographic location and
season.
*How accurate are the current diagnostic tests for Lyme disease? And why
do many cases remain undiagnosed?*
The current approved testing for Lyme disease is a two-tier serologic
test that looks for the generation of antibodies in response to the
infection.
But the key limitation of the serologic test in early Lyme disease is
that typically an infected individual may take several weeks before he
or she is able to mount an antibody response. Therefore, in early Lyme
disease, the test sensitivity is only about 30 to 40 percent.
Now after a person generates antibodies after three to four weeks, then
the two-tiered serologic test tends to be very sensitive and is good for
determining whether a patient was infected.
The take-home message is that we do not have an accurate test for early
Lyme disease, and this is why the diagnosis is generally made clinically
by a physician and also why there is so much underreporting.
If a patient presents with fever, a bull's-eye rash, and during tick
season with tick exposure, this, according to CDC criteria, is enough to
make a diagnosis of Lyme disease. Part of the reason why laboratory
testing isn't an essential criterion for the diagnosis of Lyme disease
is that we simply don't have a test that is conclusive.
*Your lab is working on better diagnostics for Lyme disease. How is your
new test different?*
- - - -
The big area of clinical need is the ability to diagnose early Lyme
disease before you can reliably detect it by antibody testing. Usually
that window is zero to one month following the tick bite.
About two years ago, we did RNA sequencing of blood samples from
patients with Lyme disease to look at the human host response. We looked
at the pattern of gene expression in patients following infection,
comparing the gene signature of Lyme disease to that for control
patients. And we found that Lyme disease, interestingly enough, has a
very distinct pattern of human gene expression in response to the infection.
We used this data in a follow-up study - which is currently unpublished
- to develop a test with more than 90 percent accuracy in diagnosing
early Lyme disease in patients presenting a fever and rash, generally
seven to 10 days after the tick bite.
It's really a completely new category of diagnostic tests made possible
because of advances in sequencing over the past several years.
*What is currently the best standard of care for treatment of Lyme disease?*
The standard of care for early uncomplicated Lyme disease recommended by
the CDC is 10 to 21 days of doxycycline, which is an oral antibiotic
that you take twice a day. Patients admitted to the hospital with severe
complications of disseminated Lyme disease, such as meningitis or
endocarditis, typically receive a two- to four-week course of an
intravenous antibiotic such as ceftriaxone.
*If you get Lyme disease once, can you get it again?*
Yes, you can, because protective antibody immunity can wane after
several years and you may also be infected by a different strain of B.
burgdorferi.
*There's a Lyme disease vaccine for dogs, why isn't there one for humans?**
***There actually was a vaccine called LYMErix that was approved by the
FDA in 1998. But four years later, it was withdrawn from the market. At
the time, there were questions involving the safety of the vaccine,
concerns raised by anti-vaccine groups, cost, burdensome vaccination
schedule (three doses a year), uncertainty regarding efficacy and need
for boosters, and low public demand.
I think that there are now some efforts underway to bring back either
this vaccine or other vaccines onto the market, especially given the
rise of Lyme disease. This is a disease that infects more than 300,000
people a year, so it's certainly something for which a vaccine would be
really helpful.
*Why do some patients with Lyme disease show persistent symptoms, even
after being treated for the disease with antibiotics?*
A small percentage of patients with Lyme disease - depending on the
study, 5 to 15 percent - exhibit persistent symptoms after treatment,
which can include chronic fatigue, muscle and joint pain, headaches,
episodes of "dizziness" or blackouts, cognitive difficulties and/or
arthritis. After six months, given significant impairment in quality of
life, these patients may be diagnosed with PTLDS (post-treatment Lyme
disease syndrome).
We don't know the cause of PTLDS, or why some patients develop this.
Some hypotheses are that the B. burgdorferi bacterium causes persistent
infection somewhere in the body or that the symptoms are due to an
aberrant immune response to Lyme infection, such as autoimmune disease.
*What do you see as the next step in Lyme disease research?*
Part of the reason why we haven't been seeing, clinical trials,
vaccines, or drugs for Lyme disease is that we don't have an accurate
diagnostic test, and we would have no way of monitoring, for instance,
effectiveness of a prospective vaccine or drug therapy in a clinical
trial. We really need the diagnostic test to guide our potential
treatments or prevention methods for the bacterium. I think it's really
going to be the development of better diagnostics that will drive
potential therapies forward.
A second critical next step is identifying why is it that a proportion
of patients with Lyme disease exhibit persistent symptoms that can last
for months to years. We need to identify both the cause of PTLDS and
identify potential treatments.
https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/news/what-you-need-know-about-lyme-disease-summer
Australia Opinion [Same in the US?]
*When it comes to climate change, our governments are letting us down
<https://www.cnet.com/news/green-energy-renewables-governments-climate-change/>*
<https://www.cnet.com/news/green-energy-renewables-governments-climate-change/>Commentary:
At the cutting edge of green energy tech, there's a common thread:
Governments aren't doing enough to secure our future.
BY MARK SERRELS - MAY 25, 2018
For the past few months, the CNET team has been working on a series of
stories about green energy and the role technology and innovation play
in pushing renewable energy to the forefront.
We called the series "Fight the Power" because there was a clear common
thread. Almost everyone we interviewed in green energy projects cited a
lack of government support. It was a constant theme: Change was
occurring, but it was occurring in spite of Australia's federal
government. The support wasn't there. These people were literally
fighting the power.
With Fight the Power, we wanted to shine a spotlight on those trying to
rescue the environment from the people who govern it.
- - - -
To date, Australia is the only developed country to establish, and
subsequently repeal, its own carbon tax. Roger Jones, a research fellow
at the Victoria Institute of Strategic Economic Studies, called it a
"perfect storm of stupidity."
It was a decision that tells you everything you need to know about the
discourse surrounding environmental issues in Australia. We're in a
strange place.
- - - - -
We're heading in the wrong direction. We're ignoring the possibilities.
A future powered entirely by renewable energy is not only within reach,
it's already possible. Countries like Iceland, Costa Rica, Albania,
Ethiopia, Paraguay, Zambia and Norway are already at 99 percent or 100
percent.
It's difficult, and it requires a complete rethinking of infrastructure,
but it can be done.
And in all likelihood it will be done. Eventually, you'd hope. Surely.
20 years from now? 50 years? But if we get there, if we finally reach
that goal, we won't have our elected officials to thank.
The ones who fight the power will save us in the end.
https://www.cnet.com/news/green-energy-renewables-governments-climate-change/
[so there IS a conspiracy]
*Emails show collaboration among EPA and climate-change deniers
<https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/emails-show-collaboration-among-epa-and-climate-change-deniers>*
Nation May 25, 2018 5:13 PM EDT - Updated on May 25, 2018 5:32 PM EDT
WASHINGTON - Newly released emails show senior Environmental Protection
Agency officials collaborating with a conservative group that dismisses
climate change to rally like-minded people for public hearings on
science and global warming, counter negative news coverage and tout
Administrator Scott Pruitt's stewardship of the agency.
John Konkus, EPA's deputy associate administrator for public affairs,
repeatedly reached out to senior staffers at the Heartland Institute,
according to the emails.
"If you send a list, we will make sure an invitation is sent," Konkus
wrote to then-Heartland president Joseph Bast in May 2017, seeking
suggestions on scientists and economists the EPA could invite to an
annual EPA public hearing on the agency's science standards.
Follow-up emails show Konkus and the Heartland Institute mustering
scores of potential invitees known for rejecting scientific warnings of
man-made climate-change, including from groups like Plants Need CO2, The
Right Climate Stuff, and Junk Science.
The emails underscore how Pruitt and senior agency officials have sought
to surround themselves with people who share their vision of curbing
environmental regulation and enforcement, leading to complaints from
environmentalists that he is ignoring the conclusions of the majority of
scientists in and out of his agency especially when it comes to
climate-changing carbon emissions.
They were obtained by the Environmental Defense Fund and the Southern
Environmental Law Center, which sued to enforce a Freedom of Information
request and provided them to The Associated Press...
More at:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/emails-show-collaboration-among-epa-and-climate-change-deniers
[Classic video discussion]
*Climate Documentary: The Cross of the Moment
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UuSxiCJ0co>*
Climate State - Published on Sep 18, 2016
The Cross of the Moment attempts to connect the dots between Fermi's
Paradox, climate change, capitalism, and collapse. Interviews with top
scientists and public intellectuals are woven together into a narrative
that is challenging, exhausting, and often depressing as it refuses to
accept the easy answers posited by other overly-simplistic climate
change documentaries.
Directed by Jacob Freydont-Attie
Official website http://www.crossofthemoment.com/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UuSxiCJ0co
[data visualizations]
*Warming stripes <http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2018/warming-stripe>*
A new set of climate visualisations, communicating the long term rise in
temperatures for particular locations as a changing set of colours from
blue to red. Each stripe represents the temperature of a single year,
ordered from the earliest available data to now.
Annual temperatures in central England from 1772-2017
The colour scale goes from 7.6 degrees C (dark blue) to 10.8 degrees C
(dark red) [data]
Annual temperatures for the contiguous USA from 1895-2017
The colour scale goes from 50.2 degrees F (dark blue) to 55.0 degrees F
(dark red) [data]
Annual temperatures in Toronto from 1841-2017
The colour scale goes from 5.5 degrees C (dark blue) to 11.0 degrees C
(dark red) [data]
Annual global temperatures from 1850-2017
The colour scale represents the change in global temperatures covering
1.35 degrees C [data]
http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2018/warming-stripes/
*This Day in Climate History - May 27, 2008
<http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/27/business/27exxon.htm> - from D.R. Tucker*
May 27, 2008: The New York Times reports:
"The Rockefeller family built one of the great American fortunes by
supplying the nation with oil. Now history has come full circle: some
family members say it is time to start moving beyond the oil age."
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/27/business/27exxon.html
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