[TheClimate.Vote] November 22, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Thu Nov 22 09:14:20 EST 2018
/November 22, 2018/
[Marvelous]
*A Thanksgiving Meditation in the Face of a Changing Climate
<https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/hot-planet/a-thanksgiving-meditation-in-the-face-of-a-changing-climate/>**te
<https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/hot-planet/a-thanksgiving-meditation-in-the-face-of-a-changing-climate/>*
I feel grief, guilt, anger, determination, hope, and sadness all at the
same time. But what I feel more than anything is gratitude for what we have.
*By Kate Marvel* on November 21, 2018
The Universe is not perfect, and that's why you exist. There were tiny
wrinkles at the beginning of space and time, and these led to tiny
imperfections in the smooth face of the early Universe. In some regions,
there was a bit more matter, in others a bit less. This slight
difference multiplied as the gravity of the rich regions pulled in the
matter from the poorer regions. As in real life, the rich got richer.
But this is why the cosmos is dotted with stars and galaxies. Every
single speck of light you've ever seen in the nighttime sky is evidence
of the Universe's flaws.
In one small gravity well, dust and gas collapsed and piled on top
itself to create a ball, and then a larger ball, and eventually a star.
This is our star, and there is nothing special about it. But its
ordinariness is the fuel for all the life we've ever known. In the sun's
hot center, protons are flung around so violently by the heat that they
overcome their natural electrical repulsion. When they come together,
they make something less than the sum of their parts. The difference is
translated into energy, some of which comes to you. You are fortunate to
benefit from an enormous nuclear reactor in the sky. If the sun were
made of coal, it would have burned out sixty-five thousand years after
it formed. Everything you've ever eaten or drunk, every move you've ever
made, every beautiful thing you've ever seen is because of a mediocre
star in an unexceptional galaxy.
You live on a small rock not too close and not too far from the Sun. You
go around it once per year in an almost perfect circle, the year marked
in seasons caused by axial tilt. Your planet can and does wobble in its
orbit over tens or hundreds of thousands of years, with the circle
becoming an ellipse, the tilt becoming larger or smaller, and the North
Star alternating between Polaris and Vega. Any small shift in the
orbital parameters can lead to massive climatic shifts, blanketing the
planet in glaciers. You are lucky to live in an interglacial, a respite
from the Ice Age that has lasted longer than human civilization, and may
outlast us, too.
On this planet, everything is unequal but intertwined. In the tropics,
hot air moves skyward, shedding water on the rainforests below as it
rises and cools. The air flows toward the colder poles like a flock of
birds returning home for the summer. Eventually, it cools and begins to
sink, pushing away the air underneath. The sinking air is dry and
cloudless, and underneath are the Sahara, the Empty Quarter, and the
Kalahari. The deserts are a gift from the tropics. But the deserts give,
too. Dust kicked up from the Sahara is carried by air currents across
the globe, where it fertilizes the lush forests of the Amazon.
The air you breathe contains oxygen put there by land plants and
phytoplankton, which use the carbon dioxide you exhale to turn light
into sugar. There is enough land to live and farm on, and enough ocean
to provide food and transportation and mystery. Millions of years of
evolution has produced a staggering array of animals and plants, and all
of your friends and family, too.
Dig deep into the land, and the layers of rocks reveal a history
punctuated by mass death. There have been five mass extinctions. You are
living through the sixth. You helped cause it, which means you have the
power to stop it. You are not an asteroid or a volcano.
The civilization you live in that creates the books you read, the movies
you enjoy, the technology that allows you to stay in touch with distant
family and friends- this has developed during the Holocene, a period of
remarkably stable climate. Arguably, we don't know how to think about
climate change because we've never really had to think about climate.
It's always been a hum in the background, small variations around a mean
that we take for granted. Now, that background note is growing louder
and higher.
Our climate is changing because of our actions. We can already see the
impacts: changes in the range and behavior of animal species, coastal
cities smashed by hurricanes and inundated by floodwaters, a haze of
unseasonal wildfire smoke. Science says nothing about how to feel about
these changes. I feel grief, guilt, anger, determination, hope, and
sadness all at the same time. But what I feel more than anything is
gratitude for what we have. We live on a medium-sized rock that goes
around a garden-variety star in a galaxy that exists only because of a
flaw in the smooth perfection of the early cosmos.
Science says there is nothing special about our place in the Universe. I
have to disagree.
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/hot-planet/a-thanksgiving-meditation-in-the-face-of-a-changing-climate/
[pass the potatoes first]
*Debunking Climate Change Myths: A Thanksgiving Conversation Guide
<https://insideclimatenews.org/news/22112017/thanksgiving-family-climate-denial-global-warming-science-answers>*
[clips edited] We asked our readers to share the top climate denial
claims and global warming questions they hear from family. Here's what
science shows -- and how to explain it.
BY STAFF, INSIDECLIMATE NEWS
- -
Some of the misinformation that creeps into the doubters' discussions
are the lingering leftovers of years of deliberatepeddling of
misinformation
<https://insideclimatenews.org/news/22102015/Exxon-Sowed-Doubt-about-Climate-Science-for-Decades-by-Stressing-Uncertainty>,
often by fossil fuel interests.
- - -
*'Brrrr, it's cold out. Is there really global warming?'*
Just ask your parents and grandparents. They'll probably remember that
winters were colder when they were your age. And on average, they'd be
right. If you start with their reminiscences, it's easy to turn the
conversation toward today's realities.
Sure, it still gets cold in the winter--sometimes too cold for comfort!
But "the frequency of cold waves has decreased since the early 1900s,"
the updated science report says.
[see the chart
https://insideclimatenews.org/sites/default/files/styles/icn_centered_medium/public/image_large/Global-Warming-Temps-1880-2018-529px.png?itok=Nz_GAK0z]
"The temperatures of extremely cold days and extremely warm days are
both expected to increase," the report predicts--with very high
confidence. "Cold waves are projected to become less intense while heat
waves will become more intense. The number of days below freezing is
projected to decline while the number above 90°F will rise."
The holidays of November and December will still bring sweater weather
to many Americans. But it's already clear that they won't be like the
olden days....
- - -
*'What about the Sun? Isn't climate change caused by solar activity that
changes its brightness?'*
The U.S. Global Climate Change Program's Climate Science Special Report,
released in 2017, found "no convincing evidence" of this. Solar
fluctuations "have been too small to explain the observed changes in
climate" in the past 60 years.
The sun, of course, is the primary source of all the world's
energy--even our fossil fuels were once plants and the animals that ate
them. So if the strength of solar radiation fluctuates, it can affect
the climate.
But scientists know that these fluctuations have been relatively small.
Measurements have gotten a lot better in the satellite era, and the
changes in solar activity simply don't track with the observed warming
in the way that the other main influence on climate does--that is, the
growing blanket of carbon dioxide that traps the heat of the sun...
- - -
*'How can you be so sure about warming when the climate computer models
are uncertain?'*
Even the most rudimentary climate models, starting about 50 years ago,
were remarkably accurate in forecasting what has happened to the climate
since then.
And they are getting better, leading scientists to become ever more
confident about their conclusions...
-- -
*'Carbon dioxide is plant food, right? So the more of it the better.'*
Not exactly.
Research has shown that increased carbon dioxide has had a fertilizing
effect on plants, boosting growth of certain vegetation in some areas
over the past three decades.
But after CO2 delivers an initial jolt to some plant life, levels of
plant productivity drop as most plants get saturated with CO2. Besides,
plants need more than CO2 to grow--like people, they need other
nutrients, too. Without an increase in those, growth plateaus.
The real problem is that with more CO2 entering the atmosphere,
temperatures will rise, droughts will expand and rain patterns will
change. The National Climate Assessment has said these changes will be
"increasingly negative on most crops and livestock."...
- - -
*'About those wildfires, isn't it all just poor forest management?'*
You may have heard President Trump suggest, repeatedly, that poor forest
management is to blame for 2018's deadly wildfires in California.
Firefighters were quick to call that "ill-informed," and scientists and
Californians have had plenty to say about the role of climate change.
While the frequency and intensity of large wildfires is influenced by a
combination of natural and human factors--including fire suppression
practices and more people moving into forested areas--climate change is
playing an increasing role.
For one thing, increasing heat sucks more moisture from plants. "The
amount of evaporated water coming out of living plants goes up pretty
dramatically even at a couple of degrees. That affects how flammable the
vegetation is, which not only affects if a spark catches but also how
the vegetation burns," California climate scientist Daniel Swain
explained in an ICN interview. "The whole character of the wildfire can
change."...
- - -
*'The Arctic may be losing ice, but Antarctic ice is expanding, right?
How could that be if the planet is warming?'*
First, it's important to remember that the North Pole and the South Pole
are two very different places--polar opposites, right? The Arctic is
mostly an ocean (and it has polar bears), and Antarctica is a big
continent (with penguins). We don't expect to see the same things.
True, Antarctica's sea ice was building up for a while, but recent
observations show that's changed drastically.
The real worry is what's happening with Antarctica's ice sheets, which
are anchored on the ground and on the seafloor. If warming ocean water
causes the ice shelves at the edges of Antarctica's glaciers to
disappear, the glaciers behind them start to flow faster, and the ice
sheets could start to collapse. That's already starting to happen. The
amount of ice that could ultimately be released into the ocean would
cause catastrophic flooding across the planet.
The question is when the flooding will happen, and how much. According
to the latest science, we may already have locked in nearly 4 feet of
sea level rise from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet alone. It would
probably take many centuries, but not necessarily. If we don't cut back
our carbon pollution, most of it could occur in this century. And over
the long term, there's even some risk of 70 feet of sea level rise over
a span of 10,000 years! Future generations may well thank us if we can
avoid that.
This story, originally published in 2017, was updated with wildfire
details and 2018 temperature and sea ice data on Nov. 20, 2018.True,
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/22112017/thanksgiving-family-climate-denial-global-warming-science-answers
[Audio report]
*Maine Lobstermen Forced To Diversify Their Work As Coastal Waters Warm
<https://www.npr.org/2018/11/21/670142234/maine-lobstermen-forced-to-diversify-their-work-as-coastal-waters-warm>*
November 21, 2018
Heard on All Things Considered
FROM Maine Public
Maine's coastal waters are warming quickly. Lobster may not be abundant
forever so fishermen are finding new ways to make a living on the water.
https://www.npr.org/2018/11/21/670142234/maine-lobstermen-forced-to-diversify-their-work-as-coastal-waters-warm
[Another brief video 1:33]
*Carbon Removal is Critical <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ryv94OvVhw>*
Climate One
Published on Nov 16, 2018
We need to be removing carbon from the atmosphere now to avoid two
degrees of warming, argues Kate Gordon - and there's more than a few
ways to go about it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ryv94OvVhw
- -
[long video - important discussion]
*Intro: Extract and Store Carbon Dioxide [CO2] from the Atmosphere
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWkutysVPBM>*
Climate State
Published on Oct 6, 2018
Increasing numbers of scientists and climate policy experts are claiming
that carbon removal (also known as negative emissions technologies) is
necessary to meet the Paris Agreement goals. How can we assess carbon
removal as part of a portfolio response to climate change and as
individual technologies or approaches?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWkutysVPBM
[Denver TV getting high on catastrophism]
*Earth has only until 2030 to stem catastrophic climate change, experts
warn <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFgXTQ7o56E>*
Denver7 - The Denver Channel
Published on Oct 8, 2018
Holding global warming to a critical limit would require "rapid,
far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society," says
a key report from the global scientific authority on climate change
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFgXTQ7o56E
[blurb from Bill McKibben
<https://act.350.org/go/67976?t=8&utm_medium=email&utm_source=actionkit&akid=57810%2E2926285%2Eg86iC7>]
Dear Friends,
Every once in a great while, I write a piece that I think is important
to share. This time it's an essay in this week's New Yorker (actually, a
sneak preview of my new book that will be out in the spring). In it I
try to offer some perspective on where we are, 30 long hot years after I
wrote The End of Nature.
I warn you, it's not all easy reading. In fact, given the horrific fires
still burning in California, an almost literal pall hangs over the
words. But I want you to know I write it from a place of engagement, not
despair--I won't give up, and I know you won't either. Movement building
demands honesty, and hence my essay, but it also demands the courage to
face facts and fight on.
And we do have much to be thankful for: our young colleagues from the
Sunrise Movement who have been doing great work persuading the new
Congress to take up a Green New Deal, for instance, and the scenes from
London where people are taking to the streets in an aptly-named
Extinction Rebellion.
Take a moment to read my new piece in the New Yorker, and then share it
with your friends.
<https://act.350.org/go/67976?t=8&utm_medium=email&utm_source=actionkit&akid=57810%2E2926285%2Eg86iC7>
So perhaps you could do me the favor of reading this essay, and sharing
it with some others who you think might appreciate it. And then back to
the fight!
With thanks,
Bill
https://act.350.org/go/67976?t=8&utm_medium=email&utm_source=actionkit&akid=57810%2E2926285%2Eg86iC7
[from the Books Blog]
*Why the world needs more climate fiction
<https://newint.org/blog/2018/11/20/why-world-needs-more-climate-fiction>*
To build the political will to cut emissions, climate change must be
personalized - and that requires storytelling. This is why a new genre,
climate fiction - cli-fi for short - has so much potential, Leo Barasi
writes.
Visitor numbers at Bletchley Park, the home of UK wartime code-breaking,
have soared in recent years. From fewer than 50,000 in 2005, ticket
sales grew to 196,000 by 2014. The next year they suddenly jumped per
cent, with an extra 84,000 people visiting the park.
Why the sharp rise in visitors? Word about Bletchley had been building
for years but there was a specific reason visitors suddenly flocked to
the museum after 2014. What had changed was the release of the
Oscar-winning film, The Imitation Game, which dramatized Alan Turing's
wartime experience at Bletchley. Visitors rushed to the park not because
they had seen a documentary or read a book about it, but because they
had been told a story.
The story the film tells is, of course, about how Turing and others
cracked the Enigma code - but it's not just about that. It's also about
how women and gay men struggled in the strictures of mid-Twentieth
Century Britain and how the country mistreated a hero. Without those
sides of the story, the film wouldn't have had such wide appeal and the
park probably wouldn't have had so many visitors.
Stories about individuals are easy to dismiss as trivial but are
essential for conveying bigger stories. Anne Frank's diaries help us
grasp the horror of the Holocaust; photographs of three-year-old Aylan
Kurdi, dead on a Turkish beach, drew global attention to the European
refugee crisis in a way that 3,000 deaths in the Mediterranean the
previous year had not.
The roots of climate apathy
When it comes to climate change you might think the world has no need
for human-interest stories. The record-breaking heat of this summer came
after a year in which the US suffered its costliest hurricane season on
record, much of South Asia was under water and Cape Town got within
weeks of switching off the taps.
But there is little sign that these changes in the world's weather are
causing a surge in public worries. Long-term studies suggest concern
about climate change has drifted up and down over the last 20 years. As
I show in my book, climate apathy is widespread and resilient: most
people understand climate change is real but don't spend much time
thinking about the subject.
A lack of science communication isn't the problem. Since the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 2001 report, scientific
confidence that humans are the cause of recent warming has gone from 66%
to more than 95%. The latest report - at nearly 5,000 pages, the
definitive statement of knowledge about the subject - had plenty of
media coverage yet little measurable impact on public opinion.
Psychologists wouldn't be surprised by this. To the human mind, climate
change is distant, complex and slow-moving - a bad combination according
to Harvard social psychologist Daniel Gilbert, who described the brain
as a "get out of the way machine". It has evolved to deal with problems
that are proximate, clear and rapidly changing and it prioritizes these
over distant threats like climate change. However quickly the planet is
changing in geological terms, it's still slow in human terms.
Perhaps this reflects the limits, in terms of persuasion, of the factual
description of climate science. To persuade more people that the world
needs to urgently cut emissions means making climate science personal
and that requires storytelling. This is why a new genre, climate fiction
- cli-fi for short - has so much potential.
Most people's experience of cli-fi is limited to one or two
blockbusters. The 2004 disaster film The Day After Tomorrow is the best
known: it may be the only work of cli-fi that editors assume audiences
know. Other prominent ones include the post-apocalyptic book and film
The Road - which doesn't actually mention climate change though is often
categorised as cli-fi.
But the famous works of cli-fi are perhaps the least important. They're
dramatic because they show a world that has been utterly transformed.
But the world they show is so unrelatably different from everyday life
that viewers might as well worry about a zombie apocalypse as about
climate change. They're unlikely to persuade many people that climate
change is a threat they need to act to prevent.
Instead of this extreme transformation, cli-fi is most persuasive when
it doesn't try to do so much. Paradoxically, it's the works that tell
the smallest stories that may be the most important: those that focus on
one change and explore what it means for the people living through it.
Among the most interesting, The End We Start From, by Megan Hunter, is
narrow and simple. A woman gives birth, her home floods and she has to
flee with her partner and baby. We hear no more about the rest of the
country - let alone the rest of the world - than the woman does and the
short book is dominated by the day-to-day of life with a growing baby as
she seeks refuge. In its simplicity it conveys, more powerfully than any
scientific report, what it would feel like to live through a climate
change-induced flood.
Others don't narrow their scope so much but still convey the emotion of
global warming. Kim Stanley Robinson's Aurora isn't obviously cli-fi -
it's mostly set on a generation starship - but gives a compelling
description of a particular loss that could come from climate change
when a character sets herself to remaking beaches that have been
swallowed by rising oceans. The reader could easily have been alienated
with descriptions of a future Earth but beaches are familiar. As a
translation of the dull term "sea-level rise", a woman's experience of
restoring sandy beaches conveys their loss in a way that makes it
painfully imaginable.
If any descriptions of climate change could trigger Gilbert's get out of
the way machine, it's ones like these. The power of the most persuasive
cli-fi is its relatability. Homes flooding and beaches drowning,
experienced through the eyes of a character we're behind, are easier to
imagine and care about than any scientific report or desperate struggles
after a world-shattering apocalypse.
Cli-fi is still little known - it's still largely limited to books (no
big-budget Netflix show yet) and most of those are published with little
attention. For now the climate change story is mostly told through dry
reports, whose facts may be terrifying but whose story is barely heard.
But there is one sign that things might be changing. A production
company, SunnyMarch, last year acquired the rights to turn The End We
Start From into a film. The name behind that production company is
someone who knows about telling personal stories: Benedict Cumberbatch,
star of The Imitation Game.
Leo Barasi is author of The Climate Majority: Apathy and Action in an
Age of Nationalism (New Internationalist)
https://newint.org/blog/2018/11/20/why-world-needs-more-climate-fiction
- - -
[Consider apathy]
*The Climate Majority
<https://newint.org/books/politics/the-climate-majority/>*
Apathy and Action in an Age of Nationalism
Author: Leo Barasi
The Climate Majority is not about the climate deniers or the climate
activists. It's about apathy, about those who don't talk about global
warming - the billions of people who have heard plenty about climate
change and acknowledge there's a problem, but who are just not engaged
enough to stimulate the change required to stop it.
This is the first book to investigate climate apathy, to describe how it
prevents action to stop climate change and to show how it can be beaten
with an approach developed for political campaigns. Drawing on opinion
polls, psychological research and examples of successful campaigns from
across the globe the author asks 'Who are the "swing" voters?', 'What do
they think and why?' and 'How can we talk about climate change in a way
that will provoke action?'
Preventing extreme climate change is one of the hardest tasks humans
have ever faced. Rising nationalism and the US withdrawal from the Paris
agreement are blows to progress. But only by influencing those who have,
so far, remained outside the debate will we have a chance of building a
climate majority to back the measures required to avoid disaster.
How we can use evidence from opinion polls and strategies from political
campaigns to turn apathy into action
About the Author
As an expert in public opinion, campaigns and climate change policy, Leo
Barasi is uniquely able to show why climate apathy matters and how it
can be beaten. A climate and energy policy analyst and experienced
campaigner with a background in opinion polls, he has worked with
political candidates, charities, campaigns and private companies to help
them understand and shape public opinion. He writes regularly for the
New Statesman, openDemocracy and ClimateHome.
https://newint.org/books/politics/the-climate-majority/
*Scientists Slam Trump's Clueless Climate Change Tweet: 'He's A Clown'
<https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-climate-change-tweet_us_5bf6019ae4b0eb6d930b6d25>*
On the eve of what's expected to be a cold Thanksgiving in the
Northeast, the president asked: "Whatever happened to Global Warming?"
By Nick Visser
President Donald Trump once again cast doubt on the scientific consensus
behind climate change Wednesday night because forecasters said it could
be cold in parts of America this week.
"Brutal and Extended Cold Blast could shatter ALL RECORDS," Trump, who
is vacationing in 80-degree weather at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida
for Thanksgiving, tweeted late Monday. "Whatever happened to Global
Warming?"
The comments appear to reference forecasts that parts of the Northeast
could see the coldest late November on record. AccuWeather said the
Thanksgiving weekend would be below freezing from New York City up to
Maine, and meteorologists said millions of Americans could see the
coldest holiday weekend in more than a century.
However, Trump's suggestion that cold weather means the climate isn't
changing is wrong. NASA notes that weather is a short-term event
(raininess, cloudiness, humidity, etc.), while climate is a measurement
of weather over time.
"In most places, weather can change from minute-to-minute, hour-to-hour,
day-to-day, and season-to-season. Climate, however, is the average of
weather over time and space," the agency says on a government website.
"An easy way to remember the difference is that climate is what you
expect, like a very hot summer, and weather is what you get, like a hot
day with pop-up thunderstorms."
The world's scientists overwhelmingly agree that the climate is changing
rapidly, and the planet has already warmed dramatically since
pre-industrial times due to human activity. A landmark scientific report
released by 13 federal agencies last year reached the same conclusion.
Trump, however, has regularly expressed doubt about climate science and
has appointed many like-minded officials to senior government positions,
including the leaders of the Environmental Protection Agency and the
Interior Department.
Climate scientists lambasted the president's message Wednesday, saying
there was "nothing unusual" about it being cold in November.
"This demonstrates once again that Donald Trump is not an individual to
be taken seriously on any topic, let alone matters as serious as climate
change," Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Pennsylvania State
University, told HuffPost in an email. "He is a clown -- a dangerous clown."
The president's comments come as California is dealing from the ongoing
effects of several massive wildfires, including the devastating Camp
fire that left at least 81 people dead. It's difficult to link any
specific natural disaster with climate change, but scientists note that
California's climate has been changing in recent decades, which may
contribute to fires happening more frequently and growing far bigger.
"The fact of the matter is if you look at the state of California,
climate challenge is happening statewide," Los Angeles Fire Chief Daryl
Osby said earlier this month as the region was dealing with another
horrific blaze. "It is going to be here for the foreseeable future."
Trump toured the ruins of Paradise, a town in Northern California that
bore the brunt of the Camp fire. When asked if he believed climate
change had contributed to the blaze, the president demurred, saying a
"lot of factors" were to blame.
"I have a strong opinion," he said. "I want a great climate."
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-climate-change-tweet_us_5bf6019ae4b0eb6d930b6d25
- - -
*[Cartoon from John Cook, climate scientist]*
I've quickly retooled a cartoon debunking the "it's cold" myth in
response to this latest Trump tweet:
https://twitter.com/johnfocook/status/1065428835229999104
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10156213254583920&set=a.10152942422548920&type=3&theater
*This Day in Climate History - November 22, 2009
<http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/11/18/climate.change.women/>-
from D.R. Tucker*
November 22, 2009:
CNN reports on the disproportionate toll climate change takes on women.
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/11/18/climate.change.women/
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