[TheClimate.Vote] October 11, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Thu Oct 11 11:07:38 EDT 2018
/October 11, 2018/
[Hurricane Michael fast strike]
*In a harrowing two hours, Hurricane Michael devastates Panama City
<https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2018/10/10/hurricane-michaels-assaults-panama-city-florida/1596550002/>*
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2018/10/10/hurricane-michaels-assaults-panama-city-florida/1596550002/
*Hurricane Michael in Florida: Beach Towns Left in Ruins; Air Force Base
Damaged*
<https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-10-hurricane-michael-impacts-florida-gulf-coast>
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-10-hurricane-michael-impacts-florida-gulf-coast
*Images, video showing Michael's destruction emerge: 'All the houses are
submerged'
<https://abcnews.go.com/US/images-showing-michaels-destruction-emerge-houses-submerged/story?id=58412487>*
https://abcnews.go.com/US/images-showing-michaels-destruction-emerge-houses-submerged/story?id=58412487
[the first task of a town crier, is to cry out]
*Majority of top U.S. newspapers fail to mention landmark climate change
report on their homepages
<https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2018/10/08/Majority-of-top-US-newspapers-fail-to-mention-landmark-climate-change-report-on-their-home/221608>*
After new U.N. IPCC climate report comes out, only 22 of the top 50 U.S.
newspapers' homepages made note of it
October 8, 2018 - TED MACDONALD
A United Nations scientific panel released a major new climate change
report on the night of October 7, warning of dire consequences if world
governments don't take unprecedented and dramatic steps in the next
decade to rein in greenhouse gas emissions. The next morning, the
majority of top U.S. newspapers failed to mention the report on their
homepages.
IPCC report warns that fast, sweeping action is necessary to fight
climate change
At 9 p.m. EDT on October 7, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) released its long-awaited special report about what will
happen if the average global temperature rises more than 1.5 degrees
Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and what would be required to
prevent such a rise. The average temperature has already risen 1 degree
C worldwide, and we will see dramatic and deadly impacts if it rises 2
degrees or more, which is now considered extremely likely. The IPCC
report was requested by world leaders as part of the 2015 Paris climate
agreement. The report emphasizes the need for unprecedented action in
the coming years to prevent the worst effects of climate change, and
warns of the dire impacts if humanity fails to take that action.
The majority of top U.S. newspapers neglected to cover the IPCC report
on their homepages
Between 9 a.m. and noon EDT on October 8, Media Matters analyzed the
homepages of the top 50 U.S. newspapers as ranked by average Sunday
circulation. Twenty-eight of the papers did not mention the report on
their homepages at all:
The Arizona Republic
The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The Baltimore Sun
The Buffalo News
Chicago Sun Times
Chicago Tribune
The Cincinnati Enquirer
The Columbus Dispatch
The Courier-Journal (Louisville, KY)
The Dallas Morning News
The Denver Post
El Nuevo Dia (Puerto Rico)
Fort Worth Star-Telegram
Houston Chronicle
New York Daily News
Newsday (New York and Long Island, NY)
The Oklahoman (Oklahoma City, OK)
The Orange County Register
The Oregonian
Orlando Sentinel
The Philadelphia Inquirer
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
San Antonio Express-News
San Diego Union-Tribune
The Star-Ledger (New Jersey)
Tampa Bay Times
St. Paul Pioneer Press
Of the above newspapers, 10 serve cities that are listed among the "25
U.S. Cities Most Affected by Climate Change" in a 2015 weather.com
report: Baltimore, Buffalo, Columbus, Denver, Louisville, Newark,
Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Portland, and St. Paul.
- - - -
Other major newspapers in cities heavily affected by climate change also
failed to highlight the IPCC report. The Las Vegas Review-Journal, the
largest newspaper in Nevada, did not note the report on its homepage.
Las Vegas is ranked third in the weather.com list. The Miami Herald also
did not mention the IPCC report on its homepage, though it did link to
an article about how the risk of sea-level rise threatens real estate
prices. Miami will be particularly affected by sea-level rise; a study
published last year in the journal Nature concluded that rising seas as
a result of climate change could cause more than 2.5 million Miami
residents to flee the city...
more at -
https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2018/10/08/Majority-of-top-US-newspapers-fail-to-mention-landmark-climate-change-report-on-their-home/221608
- - - -
[Beckwith video comment]
*Abrupt Climate Change Will Rapidly Blow Past 1.5C and 2C
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyZs6LdQ1cQ>*
Paul Beckwith
Published on Oct 10, 2018
As I filmed today, yet another massive hurricane has just come ashore in
Florida's panhandle. Hurricane Michael, at 155 mph (1 mph shy of Cat. 5)
appeared almost out of nowhere and strengthened rapidly in the way
too-warm Gulf of Mexico. This video is not just on this storm, but
primarily on the human/media/global storm that has arisen with the
release of the IPCC 1.5C report on our present state of the climate
system, and whether or not we can keep global temperature rise to 1.5C
or even to 2C.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyZs6LdQ1cQ
- - -
[YouTube video report from RealNews]
*Michael Mann: We Are Even Closer To Climate Disaster Than IPCC Predicts
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSg4KpijU9k>*
TheRealNews
Published on Oct 9, 2018
A new report from the world's leading body on climate change says we
could see catastrophic global warming by 2030, and climate scientist
Michael Mann says their predictions are too conservative
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSg4KpijU9k
[Yale Climate Communications]
Oct 9, 2018
*Americans are More Worried about Global Warming, and Show Signs of
Losing Hope
<http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/americans-are-more-worried-about-global-warming-but-show-signs-of-losing-hope/>*
By Matthew Ballew, Jennifer Marlon, Edward Maibach, Abel Gustafson,
Matthew Goldberg and Anthony Leiserowitz
With weather becoming more extreme--including powerful hurricanes,
stronger droughts and heatwaves, and increased flooding due to sea-level
rise--more Americans are personally experiencing the effects of climate
change. It is, therefore, no surprise that this increase in danger is
accompanied by an increase in worry about global warming. In our recent
nationally representative survey of American adults, more than six in
ten said they were "very" or "somewhat" worried about global warming,
whereas fewer than half did in 2010.
In contrast, our data show that American's feelings of hope about global
warming have declined over the past two years--diverging from worry. In
2010, the number of Americans expressing hope was similar to that of
worry: about 46% of the U.S. population said they were "very" or
"moderately" hopeful when thinking about global warming. During the
final years of the Obama Administration (from 2014 to 2016) and the
signing of the 2016 Paris Climate Agreement, there was an uptick in both
hope and worry. However, from 2017 onward--coinciding with the Trump
Administration--Americans became more worried and less hopeful about
global warming.
Research indicates that worry and hope motivate constructive engagement
with global warming. In a 2014 study conducted by Dr. Nicholas Smith, a
social and environmental psychologist at the University of Westminster,
and Dr. Anthony Leiserowitz, Director of the Yale Program on Climate
Change Communication, the emotions of worry and hope were among the
strongest predictors of public support for climate change policy.
The increase in worry may be motivating some Americans to act on global
warming. Still, remaining hopeful is also important to spur engagement.
Data from our latest 2018 nationally representative survey show that
Americans who remain hopeful are consistently more likely than those
with less hope to say they will act on global warming, including
contacting a government official, donating and volunteering to
environmental organizations, and joining a campaign to convince elected
officials to take action. Hopeful Americans are also more likely to
discuss global warming with their friends and family and support
policies to reduce global warming, such as regulating CO2 (the primary
greenhouse gas) as a pollutant, requiring utilities to use more
renewable energy (e.g., solar, wind power), and funding more research
into renewable energy...
- - - -
Although global warming is one of the world's most serious threats to
humans and other species there are many reasons to remain hopeful about
reducing global warming. Our 2018 research on American public opinion
reveals several key reasons:
- Most Americans support diverse policies to reduce global warming.
For example, 85% of Americans support funding more research into
renewable energy, 77% support regulating CO2 as a pollutant, 70%
support setting strict CO2 limits on existing coal-fired power
plants, and 68% support requiring fossil fuel companies to pay a
carbon tax.
- Most Americans (70%) think environmental protection is more
important than economic growth when there is a conflict between the two.
- Americans across the country overwhelmingly support teaching
climate science in schools: about 79% agree that schools should
teach children about the causes, consequences, and potential
solutions to global warming (even in conservative states).
Beyond public opinion on global warming, many individuals,
organizations, and institutions in the United States are joining the
fight against global warming.
For instance:
- Institutions across the U.S. are upholding the 2016 Paris Climate
Agreement to reduce heat-trapping carbon pollution (see We Are Still
In). So far, 10 states, 280 cities and counties, 344 colleges and
universities, and over 2,000 businesses and investors have pledged
to join the global pact to reduce global warming.
- About half of Fortune 500 companies have committed to at least one
climate or clean energy goal, according to a 2017 Worldwide Wildlife
Foundation report. In fact, Fortune 100 companies are leading the
way, as 63% have set one or more clean energy goals. Together, the
annual reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from companies is
comparable to 45 coal-fired power plants going off the grid for one
year.
-The clean energy industry is flourishing. The 2018 E2 Clean Jobs
America Report shows that about 3.2 million Americans are employed
in the clean energy industry, such as solar, wind, energy
efficiency, and clean vehicles. The solar industry alone employs
about four times more workers than the coal industry, and the energy
efficiency industry (including contractors who perform building and
home upgrades) employs twice as many people as the entire fossil
fuel industry.
What can every American do to keep hope alive? All of us can take action
by discussing global warming with our friends and family, changing our
consumer choices (e.g., making clean energy with solar panels, or buying
clean energy from our utility company or a third party provider),
contacting our government officials to urge them to act on global
warming, and making clear to candidates that our votes can be earned by
those pledging to enact climate change policies. For more information on
how to act on global warming, check out this list of resources.
http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/americans-are-more-worried-about-global-warming-but-show-signs-of-losing-hope/
[It's the economy stupid]
*Climate change will make the next global crash the worst
<https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/11/climate-change-next-global-crash-world-economies-1929>*
Larry Elliott
The storm clouds are gathering, but the world's economies now have far
fewer shelters from disaster than they did in 1929
- - - -
On the day when the IMF issued a warning about trouble ahead for the
global economy, the latest report from the UN's intergovernmental panel
on climate change said the world had only a dozen years left to take the
steps necessary to prevent a global warming catastrophe. The message is
clear for those willing to hear it: get ready for a time when economic
failure combines with ecological breakdown to create the perfect storm.
Even without the added complication of climate change, the challenge
facing the finance ministers and central bank governors gathered in Bali
would be significant enough. The IMF has cut its forecast for global
growth, but the chances are that next year will be a lot worse than is
currently forecast. The risks, the IMF says, are skewed to the downside.
You bet they are...
more at-
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/11/climate-change-next-global-crash-world-economies-1929
[video Democracy Now]
*Climate Scientist: As U.N. Warns of Global Catastrophe, We Need a
"Marshall Plan" for Climate Change
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PkB0YyXnzAU>*
Democracy Now!
Published on Oct 9, 2018
https://democracynow.org - A new report from the United Nations' climate
panel warns humanity has only a dozen years to mitigate global warming
and limit the scope of global catastrophe. Otherwise, millions will be
imperiled by increasing droughts, floods, fires and poverty. The
sweeping report by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
urges immediate and unprecedented changes to global policy in order to
keep global warming at a maximum of 1.5ºC. We speak with Kevin Anderson,
Zennström professor in climate change leadership at the Centre for
Environment and Development Studies at Uppsala University and chair of
energy and climate change at the Tyndall Center for Climate Change
Research at the University of Manchester in Britain. He says that the
IPCC report fails to hold the world's highest emitters accountable and
argues a "Marshall Plan" for climate change is necessary to save the
planet from destruction. "About 70 percent of global emissions of carbon
dioxide [come] from about 20 percent of the world population. … When we
try to address climate change and reduce our emissions by focusing on
all 7.5 billion people, I think it misunderstands where the actual
responsibility of emissions resides," Anderson says. "We're not
developing policies that need to be tailored to that particular 20 percent."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PkB0YyXnzAU
[White House accepts, but says it rejects]*
The White House Approved a Climate Report (and What That Even Means)
<https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/10/climate/white-house-approves-climate-report-what-that-means.html>*
By Lisa Friedman, John Schwartz and Eduardo Garcia
Oct. 10, 2018
- - - -
Despite the scientists' call to action, Coral and Mark Landler report,
the response from the White House was muted, with President Trump saying
Tuesday evening only that he "will be looking at it." Since the Trump
administration has systematically worked to discredit climate science
and dismantle regulations aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, it
fit a pattern.
And yet Coral noted something significant: Despite its stance on climate
science, the Trump administration formally approved the document. In the
world of diplomacy, it sends a signal that even the Trump administration
might not be willing to publicly buck the conclusions of the world's top
climate scientists...
- - - -
It's notable that the report came out just as the American economists
William Nordhaus and Paul Romer won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic
Science for their work on climate change -- specifically, the notion
that putting a price on carbon can be a powerful force for taming
emissions. That idea, Brad reports, is picking up steam around the world.
What news might the coming days bring? As you read this, Hurricane
Michael is expected to wallop the Florida Panhandle. Governor Rick Scott
called it a "monstrous storm" and potentially the worst to hit that part
of the state in decades. For more on how the United States handles
disasters, this eye-opening piece by Kevin Sack and John Schwartz
reports that at least $81 billion in taxpayer money has been spent on
recovery projects since 1992, often with no regard for the realities of
climate change.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/10/climate/white-house-approves-climate-report-what-that-means.html
[Summary of condtions]
*Global Warming: How Far to 1.5°C?
<https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/10/10/global-warming-how-far-to-1-5c/>*
Posted on October 10, 2018
- - - - -
There's been a lot of talk recently about limiting global warming to
1.5°C, mainly focused on two things: 1) how important it is, and 2) how
difficult it will be. This raises an important question: how far have we
come already, and how much farther until we reach the 1.5°C limit?
The threshhold 1.5°C refers to how much we have warmed the planet above
its pre-industrial temperature, but that of course begs the question,
what was pre-industrial temperature? It's easy to say it's the long-term
average around the year 1750 (about the start of the industrial
revolution), but we don't have enough historical thermometer data to
know precisely what that was. Various analyses have substituted a
different reference level based on a different reference time. For
example, some analysis uses the average temperature over the period
1850-1899, some use the average over the period 1861-1880. These aren't
pre-industrial times, but at least they give us a place to start, i.e.
somewhere around the late 19th century...
- - -
Even if we do decide on an aggressive emissions reduction plan and
actually stick to it, there are other things to worry about. There
really are feedbacks in the climate system and some of them might get
ugly. Best-known (and probably most-worried-about) is permafrost melt,
which threatens to add even more CO2 to the atmosphere than we already
have. Perhaps the best approach to these is: *don't poke the bear...*
- - - -
There's also the fact that most near-term forecasts are based on a
linear approximation of the climate system's response to perturbations.
We all know that linear response is usually close and often useful, but
we also know that the system isn't linear, and when the nonlinearity
kick in things can get very ugly.
All of which emphasizes just how important it is to begin drastic
emissions reduction now. Most of the world seems to be waking up to the
fact of just how important and how urgent this is. Unfortunately, the
United States is going the wrong way at just the wrong time.
There's sure to be disagreement about many of my choices and results.
But only those in serious denial disagree with how important it is to
begin drastic emissions reduction now.
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/10/10/global-warming-how-far-to-1-5c/
[societal resilience]
*Mental health issues linked to climate change
<https://www.salon.com/2018/10/09/mental-health-problems-linked-to-climate-change/>*
Temperatures rising and the fear of more natural disasters is affecting
our mental health, a new study says
warning on the impact of climate change from 90 scientists around the
world issued on Monday did not herald good news. According to the
report, issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
a half-degree Celsius difference in the Earth's rising temperature could
mean the difference between saving the planet and catastrophe.
The impact of climate change extends beyond ruining Earth's biosphere
and our physical safety, however. A separate report published this week
suggests that climate change has a negative impact on our mental health,
too.
The study, published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy
of Sciences of the United States (PNAS), links an increase in monthly
temperatures to a rise in mental health issues. The empirical evidence
stems from meteorological data paired with information collected from
nearly 2 million randomly sampled residents in the United States. The
data was collected over the span of a decade.
The report specifically focused on mental health outcomes due to the
effects of environmental stress -- such as temperature, and
precipitation, tropical cyclones -- but other climate change–related
issues are likely to impact mental health as well -- specifically, the
stress and anxiety of knowing natural disasters could be more frequent
as temperatures rise.
"One thing we weren't able to study was the stress/anxiety associated
with the anticipation of more intense natural disasters in the future,"
Nick Obradovich, lead author of the study and a research scientist at
the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Media Lab, told Salon in an
email. "That stress/worry is likely to also play a non-negligible role
in the mental health impacts of a changing climate."
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) briefly addresses
on its website the impact climate change can have on mental health: "For
example, research demonstrated high levels of anxiety and post-traumatic
stress disorder among people affected by Hurricane Katrina, and similar
observations have followed floods and heat waves. Some evidence suggests
wildfires have similar effects. All of these events are increasingly
fueled by climate change. Other health consequences of intensely
stressful exposures are also a concern, including pre-term birth, low
birth weight, and maternal complications."
Obradovich said the link between climate change and mental health should
be considered by government policy makers as they work to combat climate
change and its social ills.
"Policymakers should be very actively considering how to increase
societal resilience to our changing climate," Obradovich said. "We
certainly won't go wrong if we improve the overall quality and
availability of mental health care. Doing so may help provide a buffer
against the added mental health stress presented by climate change."
NICOLE KARLIS
Nicole Karlis is a news writer at Salon. She covers health, science,
tech and gender politics. Tweet her @nicolekarlis.
https://www.salon.com/2018/10/09/mental-health-problems-linked-to-climate-change/
[Hot ice]
*Melting glaciers at Novaya Zemlya contain radiation from nuclear bomb
tests
<https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2018/10/melting-glaciers-novaya-zemlya-contain-radiation-nuclear-bomb-tests>*
A science expedition to the area has discovered "big concentrations of
radioactivity" in the ice – and concludes that the glaciers are melting
into the sea at record speed.
By Thomas Nilsen - October 09, 2018
The primary goals for the Russian researchers were to study whether
hundreds of containers with dumped radioactive waste in the Kara Sea
were leaking or not...
- - -
More worrying is the radiation discovered in the glaciers stretching out
in the waters.
From 1957 to 1962, a total of 86 nuclear bomb tests were carried out in
the atmosphere at Novaya Zemlya. The tests include the largest nuclear
devices ever exploded, like the so-called 58 megatons Tsar-bomb on
October 30, 1961.
Most bombs were exploded above ground at the northern polygon near the
Matotchin Shar dividing the northern and southern island of the
archipelago. Wind direction, for the most, was towards the north when
the tests took place.
It is the fallout from these tests that now are about to melt out to the
sea...
- - -
"On the Novaya Zemlya, the wind direction is such that most of the
pollution is accumulated on the northern island and the northern ice
sheet. We have studied one of the glaciers that could carry such
pollution - the Nally Glacier in the Blagopoluchiye Bay, and in this
glacier we found parts that hold big concentrations of radioactivity,"
Mikhail Flint tells...
- - - -
While there are close to nothing of commercial fisheries in the Kara
Sea, the Barents Sea has a high biological production and the fisheries,
in particular the cod fisheries, are of great importance for both Norway
and Russia.
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2018/10/melting-glaciers-novaya-zemlya-contain-radiation-nuclear-bomb-tests
*This Day in Climate History - October 11, 2015
<http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/opinion/sunday/teaching-the-truth-about-climate-change.html>
- from D.R. Tucker*
October 11, 2015. The New York Times editorial page observes:
"Misinformation about climate change is distressingly common in the
United States -- a 2014 Yale study found that 35 percent of
Americans believe that global warming is caused mostly by natural
phenomena rather than human activity, and 34 percent think there is
a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether global warming
is even happening. (In fact, an overwhelming majority of scientists
agree that climate change is here and that it is caused by humans.)
One way to stop the spread of this misinformation is to teach
children about climate change.
"The Next Generation Science Standards offer one guide for doing so.
Developed by a committee of scientists and education experts and
honed by teams in 26 states before their release in 2013, the
standards set forth a variety of scientific practices and concepts
for students from kindergarten through 12th grade to master.
"Middle school students should understand that 'human activities,
such as the release of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels,
are major factors in the current rise in Earth's mean surface
temperature.' In high school, students should learn that
human-caused environmental changes, including climate change, 'can
disrupt an ecosystem and threaten the survival of some species,' and
they should be able to use climate models to determine the rate of
climate change and its possible effects."
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/opinion/sunday/teaching-the-truth-about-climate-change.html
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