[TheClimate.Vote] April 5, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/April 5, 2019/

[New Yorker Dispatch - Climate refugees]
*How Climate Change Is Fuelling the U.S. Border Crisis*
In the western highlands of Guatemala, the question is no longer whether 
someone will leave but when.
By Jonathan Blitzer
- - -
In most of the western highlands, the question is no longer whether 
someone will emigrate but when. "Extreme poverty may be the primary 
reason people leave," Edwin Castellanos, a climate scientist at the 
Universidad del Valle, told me. "But climate change is intensifying all 
the existing factors." Extended periods of heat and dryness, known as 
caniculas, have increased in four of the last seven years, across the 
country. Yet even measurements of annual rainfall, which is projected to 
decline over the next fifty years, obscure the effects of its growing 
irregularity on agriculture. Farming, Castellanos has said, is "a 
trial-and-error exercise for the modification of the conditions of 
sowing and harvesting times in the face of a variable environment." 
Climate change is outpacing the ability of growers to adapt. Based on 
models of shifting weather patterns in the region, Castellanos told me, 
"what was supposed to be happening fifty years from now is our present 
reality."...
- -
https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/how-climate-change-is-fuelling-the-us-border-crisis


[Guardian report on US government]
*Climate change group scrapped by Trump reassembles to issue warning*
Panel was disbanded after a Trump official voiced concerns that it did 
not have enough members 'from industry'
A US government climate change advisory group scrapped by Donald Trump 
has reassembled independently to call for better adaptation to the 
floods, wildfires and other threats that increasingly loom over American 
communities.

The Trump administration disbanded the 15-person Advisory Committee for 
the Sustained National Climate Assessment in August 2017. The group, 
formed under Barack Obama's presidency, provided guidance to the 
government based on the National Climate Assessment, a major compendium 
of climate science released every four years.
Documents released under freedom of information laws subsequently showed 
the Trump administration was concerned about the ideological makeup of 
the panel. "It only has one member from industry, and the process to 
gain more balance would take a couple of years to accomplish," wrote 
George Kelly, then the deputy chief of staff at the National Oceanic and 
Atmospheric Administration, in a June 2017 email.

The advisory group has since been resurrected, however, following an 
invitation from New York's governor, Andrew Cuomo, and has been 
financially supported by Columbia University and the American 
Meteorological Society. It now has 20 expert members.
- - -
In its new report, the Science to Climate Action Network recommends the 
creation of a "civil-society-based climate assessment consortium" that 
would combine private and public interests to provide more localized 
help for communities menaced by floods, wildfires or other perils.

"Imagine working in state or county government - you have a road that is 
flooding frequently and you get three design options all with different 
engineering," Moss said. "You don't have the capacity to know what is 
the best option to avoid flooding, you just know what costs more.

"Climate issues aren't being raised in communities. They may know they 
are vulnerable but they don't know whether to use, for example, wetlands 
or a flood wall to stop flooding. We need to establish best practices 
and guide people on how to apply that locally.

"This is extremely urgent. Every year that goes by means more people 
losing everything from flooding and fire, including the lives of loved 
ones. This needs to be addressed as rapidly as possible."
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/apr/04/climate-change-trump-advisory-group-report-warning-global-warming


[International climate calamity]
*At least 62 people killed in Iran floods as US accused of blocking aid*
Iranian government criticised over response to crisis that has left 
thousands displaced
The death toll from two weeks of flooding in Iran has risen to 62 as 
frustration mounts inside the country at the government's handling of 
the crisis and an international dispute has broken out over whether 
renewed US sanctions are blocking aid.
- -
Tens of thousands more have been displaced, and many may have been made 
permanently homeless by the flooding. But getting in relief supplies is 
likely to remain a challenge for months to come.

Thousands of roads have been blocked or washed away and 84 bridges 
destroyed, making rescue operations complicated, a spokesman for the 
National Disaster Management Organisation told state TV.

"[In total] 141 rivers burst their banks and around 400 landslides were 
reported," said Behnam Saeedi, a spokesman for the organisation.

The damaged roads make up about a third of the national network. 
Sanctions mean the country has not been able to update its fleet of 
rescue helicopters.

The United Nations said at the start of the crisis that it was ready to 
offer help, but also warned that "challenges caused by unilateral 
sanctions will affect the UN response and the accountability of UN to 
deliver the appropriate support", the office for the coordination of 
humanitarian affairs said in a statement.

The tepid international response is in marked contrast to the crisis 
after the Bam earthquake in 2003, when the world raced to offer help 
after the historic city was nearly totally destroyed.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/04/iran-floods-death-toll-reaches-62



[Read the original study By BlackRock Investment Institute]
GLOBAL INSIGHTS
*Getting physical: assessing climate risks*
Apr 4, 2019
*Here are our key findings:*
- We show how physical climate risks vary greatly by region, drawing on 
the latest granular climate modeling and big data techniques. We focus 
on three sectors with long-dated assets that can be located with 
precision: U.S. municipal bonds commercial mortgage-backed securities 
(CMBS) and electric utilities.

    - Extreme weather events pose growing risks for the creditworthiness
    of state and local issuers in the $3.8 trillion U.S. municipal bond
    market. We translate physical climate changes into implications for
    local GDP -- and show a rising share of muni bond issuance over time
    will likely come from regions facing economic losses from climate
    change and events linked to it.
    - Hurricane-force winds and flooding are key risks to commercial
    real estate. Our analysis of recent hurricanes hitting Houston and
    Miami finds that roughly 80% of commercial properties tied to
    affected CMBS loans lay outside official flood zones -- meaning they
    may lack insurance coverage. This makes it critical to analyze
    climate-related risks on a local level.
    - Aging infrastructure leaves the U.S. electric utility sector
    exposed to climate shocks such as hurricanes and wildfires. We
    assess the exposure to climate risk of 269 publicly listed U.S.
    utilities based on the physical location of their plants, property
    and equipment. Conclusion: The risks are underpriced.

Climate-related risks pose a threat to the economies - and 
creditworthiness - of many U.S. state and local issuers, our analysis 
shows. Our work with Rhodium Group shows a rising share of U.S. 
metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) will likely be hit by climate 
change in the coming decades. Within a decade, more than 15% of the 
current S&P National Municipal Bond Index by market value would come 
from MSAs suffering likely average annualized economic losses from 
climate change of up to 0.5% to 1% of GDP. The impacts are projected to 
grow more severe in the decades ahead.
https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/insights/blackrock-investment-institute/physical-climate-risks


[Paul Beckwith talks of recent changes ]
*State of the Climate: Not a Pretty Picture*
Paul Beckwith - Published on Apr 4, 2019
Every spring, for the past 25 years, the World Meteorological 
Organization (WMO) releases their State of the Climate report. This 
years edition clearly shows how dire our climate situation is becoming. 
Just when you think it can't get worse, it does. In this, and the next 
few videos, I chat on highlights and key points that are in the report, 
which I highly recommend you read as well. Consequences to us and all 
other species on our planet are profound.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGxKXB04Q3k



[Forbes magazine gets radical]
*What If Toxic Masculinity Is The Reason For Climate Change?*
Carolyn Centeno Milton - Apr 3, 2019
When a person walks out of the grocery store holding an eco-friendly 
canvas bag instead of a plastic bag, what gender do you think they are? 
Most likely, your unconscious bias answers that they are female. This is 
the type of answer Dr. Aaron Brough of Utah State University is trying 
to get to the bottom of through his research.

Brough co-authored a paper with professors from four other universities 
to understand how gender norms affect sustainable decision making. They 
report data from seven experiments that included over 2,000 participants 
from the US and China. What they found was remarkable.

They found that both men and women associated doing something good for 
the environment with being "more feminine." And when men's gender 
identity was threatened, they tried to reassert their masculinity 
through environmentally damaging choices. The report states that "men 
may be motivated to avoid or even oppose green behaviors in order to 
safeguard their gender identity." This unearths a deeply held 
unconscious bias that Brough and team call the "Green-Feminine 
Stereotype." Once this unconscious bias is revealed, it has the 
potential to help society shift our increasingly precarious relationship 
with the environment for the better. If it remains hidden, it has the 
potential to greatly damage our environment permanently.

In one of Brough and team's experiments, both men and women were asked 
to recall a time when they did something good or bad for the 
environment. Those who recalled having done something good for the 
environment rated themselves as more "feminine" than those who recalled 
having done something bad to the environment. One might expect this type 
of gender stereotyping around green behavior to happen only when someone 
is concerned about how they appear to others. But even upon 
self-evaluation judged themselves feminine when acting responsibly 
towards the environment. This experiment shows how deeply held this bias is.

Another experiment took the idea further and applied the concept of the 
"Green-Feminine Stereotype" to product and brand selection. Male 
participants were exposed to one of two Walmart gift cards--one that 
used more comically feminine design elements like pink and floral, 
selected to threaten masculine stereotypes, or another gift card that 
was designed to not threaten masculinity. The men were then asked to 
make a series of choices between green and non-green products to 
purchase. Men who were shown the "gender threat" gift card chose more 
non-green products than men shown the other gift card. That means that 
when men felt emasculated, they asserted their masculinity and 
safeguarded their gender by making choices that would ultimately harm 
the environment.

To take this concept further, the group worked with BMW in China to test 
two print ads of the same car. The only difference between the ads was 
that the word eco-friendly was replaced in one ad with a more masculine 
Chinese word for protection.  What they found was that men evaluated the 
protection option more positively than the eco-friendly option even 
though it was the same car. Which begs the question, do brands need to 
pander to an unconscious bias and affirm masculinity or use 
stereotypically masculine elements to positively move the needle in 
environmental impact?

It seems regressive to do so. With so many brands launching with a 
female-only audience due to lack of representation in products and 
market understanding, it seems like a perfect time to rebrand 
eco-friendly's association with femininity as a positive thing. And 
men's affiliation with positive environmental steps as a human-affirming 
truth that shifts us from negative and segregated gender identities into 
our roles as humans on this planet.

The more interesting opportunity seems to be in exposing the toxicity 
present within the unconscious bias that acting green is a feminine and 
therefore weaker or negative thing. Exposing the fact that our society 
creates a toxic hierarchy around femininity as a lesser thing. Brough 
himself cited gender research around "gender incongruence" and the great 
penalties that men (and women) face when they don't fit stereotypical 
gender norms. Research suggests that men experience greater 
psychological damage or face harsher consequences when associated with 
feminine qualities. As a society, we are beginning to address these 
problems with corporate unconscious bias training, exposure and 
conversation. But when it comes to our environment, our toxic 
masculinity is greatly affecting our shared environment for the worse.

Brough sums it up nicely, "We need to overcome our unhealthy judgements 
of gender incongruence. And men need to be confident in their 
self-identity and decide to live a sustainable lifestyle without caring 
what other people think." Let's begin the conversation to start 
overriding our natural judgements. Our future depends on it.

Interview with Dr. Aaron Brough of Utah State University
All research and insights are from Dr. Aaron Brough and team's paper
https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolyncenteno/2019/04/03/what-if-toxic-masculinity-is-the-reason-for-climate-change/#204dc5c337e4


[Video briefing on Ocean Currents]
*Climate Change and The Great Ocean Conveyor*
Just Have a Think - Published on Mar 31, 2019
The Great Ocean Conveyor, The Thermohaline Circulation, The Gulf Stream, 
AMOC...all terms we hear quite a lot these days. And they all seem to be 
linked with climate change, or even abrupt climate change according to 
some. The circulation of currents around our globe is an extremely 
complex system that brings nutrients to our ocean food chain and heat 
energy to different parts of the planet. This week we attempt to 
understand the basics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpvUivhCw2Y


[Fairly smart]
***Cuba acknowledges climate change threats in its constitution*
Move is the latest in a series that the country has made aimed at 
dealing with stronger hurricanes, more intense droughts and rising sea 
levels.
Emiliano Rodríguez Mega
Cuba has become the latest country to enshrine the fight against climate 
change in its constitution -- provoking a mixed response from the 
scientific community.

In late February voters approved a new constitution that included 
amendments directing Cuba to "promote the conservation of the 
environment and the fight against climate change, which threatens the 
survival of the human species". The country joins ten other nations, 
including Ecuador and Tunisia, that mention "climate" or "climate 
change" in their constitutions.

Some researchers believe the additions are a positive sign of a growing 
worldwide impetus to combat extreme weather events. Cuba has already 
introduced aggressive policies to combat global warming, including a 
long-term plan to adapt to more destructive hurricanes, extreme droughts 
and sea level rise.

"It's very exciting to see what Cuba is doing," says Carl Bruch, an 
attorney at the Environmental Law Institute in Washington DC. "The fact 
that you're seeing climate change in the highest law of the land 
reflects the growing urgency in addressing it."

A mixed bag
But others doubt that the move will amount to meaningful action.

The climate-related language in the constitution is "a nice sentiment", 
says Rolando García, an atmospheric chemist and Cuban expat at the 
National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. But 
efforts to address climate change in Cuba seem to proceed slowly, he 
says. "The aspirational goal enshrined in the new Cuban constitution 
does not change anything."

Any plans by Cuba to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions will be a drop in 
the bucket for global carbon emissions, García says. Cuba was 
responsible for 0.1% of the world's total carbon dioxide emissions in 
2014; by contrast, the United States released about 15%, according to 
data gathered by the World Resources Institute, an environmental 
think-tank in Washington DC.

Others say that the move is also political -- a thumb in the eye of the 
United States, which has been reluctant to take meaningful measures to 
address climate change.
- -
"We're a group of scientists trying to overcome the limitations of the 
country's poverty," says Antuna Marrero, who also collaborates with the 
University of Valladolid in Spain. "But our philosophy is to find 
solutions, not to complain."

Holding back the tide
Cubans have much to lose if the planet keeps warming. The country has 
experienced intense droughts and increased sea-level rise in the past 50 
years. And according to Cuba's Institute of Meteorology in Havana, 
stronger, more frequent hurricanes have flooded cities, flattened cane 
fields and caused billions of dollars in damage.

In response, Cuba has begun mapping areas at high risk for sea-level 
rise, moving its citizens out of those regions and razing their homes. 
This is the opposite of what often happens in the United States, where 
houses are rebuilt exactly where they once stood before being washed 
away by a storm, says David Guggenheim, a marine biologist at the 
environmental non-profit group Ocean Doctor in Washington DC.
- -
The inclusion of climate change in the constitution is also helping Cuba 
to distinguish itself politically from its neighbour to the north, says 
Oliver Houck, a lawyer at Tulane University in New Orleans, Louisiana, 
who travelled to Cuba in the 1990s to help draft some of its 
environmental laws. The Cuban government, after all, "has no love for 
the United States", he says.

Few Cubans have told Houck that they don't care about climate change. 
"And I can't tell you the number of people in America who say that," 
Houck says. "I mean, we have an entire political party who says that."
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00760-3



[Fake news, propaganda, misinformation - some important questions]
*Stop The Presses! Newspapers Affect Us, Often In Ways We Don't Realize*
SHANKAR VEDANTAM - April 4, 2019
"Fake news" is a phrase that may seem specific to our particular moment 
and time in American history.

But Columbia University Professor Andie Tucher says fake news is deeply 
rooted in American journalism.

In 1690, British officials forced the first newspaper in North America 
to shut down after it fabricated information. Nineteenth-century 
newspapers often didn't agree on basic facts. In covering a lurid murder 
in 1836, two major papers in New York City offered wildly differing 
perspectives on the case.

"They both looked at the same crime and had entirely different 
interpretations based on what they thought their readers would prefer to 
hear," says Tucher, who researches the history of fake news. Different 
newspapers had different audiences, so journalists catered to the tastes 
and sympathies of their particular readerships.

The debate over this approach continues across the media landscape 
today. And it often masks a larger question that persists in American 
journalism: Should reporters think of their readers and listeners as 
consumers, or as citizens?

This week on Hidden Brain, we explore this tension at the heart of 
journalism. And we'll consider another thorny question: when nobody 
wants to pay for the press, does someone ultimately foot the bill?

These days there are plenty of ways to pay little--or nothing--to read 
the news. Millions of Americans have simply decided they don't need a 
subscription to their local newspaper.

But new research suggests this strategy may have costs in the long run. 
That's because newspapers are not like most things we purchase. If we 
decide not to buy a watch or a cappuccino, we save money. But if we 
decide not to pay for a police department, we might save money in the 
short run, but end up paying more in the long run.

Whereas most of us treat newspapers like consumer products, new research 
from Paul Gao, Chang Lee, and Dermot Murphy suggests that they might be 
more like police departments. Gao, Lee, and Murphy looked at how 
newspaper closures might affect the cost of borrowing in local 
governments. What they found is a price tag that may give many taxpayers 
sticker shock.
Download 
https://play.podtrac.com/npr-510308/ondemand.npr.org/anon.npr-mp3/npr/hiddenbrain/2019/04/20190404_hiddenbrain_hb_rad_stop_the_presses__-_radio_ep_for_web.mp3
https://www.npr.org/2019/04/04/709554779/stop-the-presses-newspapers-affect-us-often-in-ways-we-dont-realize
- - - -
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*Global Warming Disinformation Database*
Welcome to the DeSmog Climate Disinformation Research Database where you 
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climate science denier individuals and organizations.
An extensive database of individual climate deniers involved in the 
global warming denial industry.
An extensive database of organizations involved in the global warming 
denial industry.
https://www.desmogblog.com/global-warming-denier-database


[Science lesson]
*Evolution of Earth's Atmosphere*
Antonio Zamora - Published on Mar 31, 2019
The atmosphere of the Earth has changed several times under the 
influence of temperature-dependent chemical reactions, volcanic activity 
and living organisms.
NOTE: At 10:30 the soundtrack says 850 thousand instead of 850 million
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Zvj6ddXBOU



[What would a corporation as a person say?]
*Exxon Can Block Shareholder Climate Proposal, SEC Rules*
By Kaitlin Sullivan
April 3, 2019
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will allow Exxon to block 
its shareholders from voting on a proposal calling on the oil giant to 
set and disclose targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

The SEC decision, which was issued Tuesday, is in response to a 
shareholder submission filed in January by the New York State Common 
Retirement Fund, the Church of England and dozens of co-filers, asking 
Exxon to set a series of emission targets that would align its business 
plan with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.

In an effort to sidestep the proposal, Exxon sent a letter to the SEC 
asking for permission to block a shareholder vote on the proposal, which 
it said was "vague and misleading" and would undermine its management 
responsibilities.

In its decision, the SEC agreed with Exxon and said passage of the 
proposal would "micromanage" the company.

Andrew Logan, senior director of oil and gas at the sustainability 
nonprofit organization Ceres, said investors will continue to push for 
disclosure of the company's plan to reduce emissions.

"Contrary to the SEC's incorrect determination that the resolution 
amounted to micromanagement, what shareholders are really looking for is 
large-scale realignment of the company's business plan to address 
climate-related risks,"  said Logan in a statement.

Exxon said it released the requested targets in its 2018 Energy and 
Carbon Summary, which was released after a landmark investor vote passed 
in 2017. The resolution forced the company to produce an annual report 
that details how the company will be impacted by global efforts to align 
with a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris Climate 
Agreement. The report downplayed the threat posed by international 
climate goals, which prompted the latest shareholder request.

Exxon is facing a growing number of climate change-related lawsuits and 
investigations related to its climate change disclosures...
https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2019/04/03/exxon-can-block-shareholder-climate-proposal/


Colorado State University]
*ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2019*
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE
ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2019
We anticipate that the 2019 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have 
slightly belownormal activity. The current weak El Niño event appears 
likely to persist and perhaps
even strengthen this summer/fall. Sea surface temperatures averaged 
across the tropical
Atlantic are slightly below normal, and the far North Atlantic is 
anomalously cool. Our
Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is below its long-term average. 
We anticipate a
slightly below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall 
along the
continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case 
with all hurricane
seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane 
making landfall to
make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for 
every season,
regardless of how much activity is predicted.
Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010
Average (in parentheses)
Issue Date 4 April 2019
Named Storms (NS) (12.1) 13
Named Storm Days (NSD) (59.4) 50
Hurricanes (H) (6.4) 5
Hurricane Days (HD) (24.2) 16
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.7) 2
Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (6.2) 4
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (106) 80
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (116%) 90
https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2019/04/2019-04.pdf


*This Day in Climate History - April 5, 2002- from D.R. Tucker*
April 5, 2002: New York Times columnist Paul Krugman denounces White 
House press secretary Ari Fleischer's "...use of a press conference on 
the crisis in the Middle East to shill, once again, for the Bush energy 
plan," observing:

"Even if the United States weren't dependent on imported oil, the Middle 
East would still be a strategically crucial region, and the 
Israeli-Palestinian conflict would still be a world nightmare.

"But to the extent that oil independence would help -- and it would, a 
bit, by reducing the leverage of Persian Gulf producers -- the Bush 
administration has long since forfeited the moral high ground. It has 
done so by vigorously opposing any serious efforts at conservation, 
which would have to be the centerpiece of any real plan to reduce oil 
imports.

"There are many ways to make this case; here are two more. Even at its 
peak, a decade or so after drilling began, oil production from the 
Arctic National Wildlife Refuge would reduce imports by no more than 
would a 3-mile-per-gallon increase in fuel efficiency -- something 
easily achievable, were it not for opposition from special interest 
groups. Indeed, the Kerry-McCain fuel efficiency standards, which the 
administration opposed, would have saved three times as much oil as ANWR 
might produce. Or put it this way: Total world oil production is about 
75 million barrels per day, of which the United States consumes almost 
20; ANWR would produce, at maximum, a bit more than 1 million.

"Yet a few months ago, Republican activists ran ads with side-by-side 
photos of Tom Daschle and Saddam Hussein, declaring that both men oppose 
drilling in ANWR -- and Dick Cheney, when asked, stood behind those ads. 
Administration critics could, with rather more justification, run ads 
with side-by-side photos of George W. Bush and Saddam Hussein, declaring 
that both men oppose increased fuel efficiency standards. (Actually, I'm 
not aware that Iraq's ruler has expressed an opinion on either issue.) 
Of course, if such ads did run, there would be enormous outrage. After 
all, turnabout wouldn't be fair play because, well, just because."
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/05/opinion/at-long-last.html
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