[TheClimate.Vote] April 12, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/April 12, 2019/


[weather plus time equals climate]
*Midwest storm brings extreme weather*
Extreme temperatures, fast winds, thundersnow, blizzard conditions and 
severe thunderstorms innundate the middle of the U.S.
A wild spring storm is walloping parts the Midwest U.S. with extreme 
temperatures, heavy snow, blizzards and high winds.

It's already caused mayhem from the Rockies to the Midwest. Thundersnow 
has been common, and snow totals keep climbing - already up to 18 inches 
in spots. High-speed winds, over 70 mph in some areas, have rocked the 
Plains, sending dust plumes flying.

On the storm's south side, sweltering heat has set records; in the 
north, temperatures are more typical of midwinter. The temperature 
contrasts over relatively small distances have been extraordinary.

The storm's intensity has flirted with historically low levels over 
Kansas, indicating an exceptionally strong storm.

Major temperature contrasts help develop giant storms like this one, 
which is feeding off unusually chilly air to the north of its center.
- -
The worst of the winds were focused on parts of the southern Rockies and 
High Plains on Wednesday.

Several areas in New Mexico's plains saw gusts above 70 mph. One 
observation near Clovis showed a gust to 77 mph.

Across the border, from West Texas into the panhandle, also saw a number 
of gusts above 65 mph, including a 70 mph report from Anton, northwest 
of Lubbock. Peak gusts of around 60 mph were also common into western 
Kansas and eastern Colorado.

In mountainous elevations, a gust to 107 mph was recorded in Colorado, 
as were numerous others approaching or surpassing 80 mph.

These winds came along with tons of dust; satellite images show a long 
trail coming off White Sands park in New Mexico.

As this dust was ingested into the storm system, it appears to have made 
it as far north as parts of Minnesota, where pictures of dusty snow have 
come across the wire...
https://www.inforum.com/news/weather/1003560-Midwest-storm-brings-extreme-weather 




[Get ready]
*San Francisco wants to prepare for extreme weather, turns to climate 
scientists for help...*
- - -
The impacts of climate change are expected to grow as greenhouse gas 
emissions continue to heat the planet.

Scientists Chris Patricola and Michael Wehner at Lawrence Berkeley Lab, 
who are developing the storm model for San Francisco, hypothesize that 
global warming will pack increasing amounts of rain into West Coast 
storms, simply because hotter air holds more moisture. But they don't 
know how much more rain will come, nor do they know how the changing 
circulation of storms will affect factors like wind and sea surges.

The lab's work, which will simulate future storms based on past events 
and higher greenhouse gas concentrations, is expected to provide a more 
complete picture of what San Francisco should anticipate.

The simulations will narrow the likely impacts of global warming to 
within as little as 2 miles, meaning city officials will know precisely 
how weather in San Francisco will differ from other parts of the region.

"The Bay Area would (normally) be all in one grid box. There wouldn't be 
any differentiation between San Francisco and the Peninsula," Patricola 
said. But "due to the advances in the supercomputing, we can do this at 
even finer and finer resolutions."

City officials hope to begin learning the results of the lab's work in 
about a year.
Kurtis Alexander is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer
https://www.sfchronicle.com/science/article/San-Francisco-wants-to-prepare-for-extreme-13757656.php



[Destined to Burn - Map the California fire season]
*This story is part of the Destined to Burn series, a collaboration with 
newsrooms across California and the Associated Press.*
map 
https://media.sacbee.com/static/graphics/2019/VHFH/Map_firehazards_digital_lg.png
Impoverished towns in the shadow of Mount Shasta. Rustic Gold Rush 
cities in the Sierra Nevada foothills. High-dollar resort communities on 
the shores of Lake Tahoe. Ritzy Los Angeles County suburbs.
They all could be the next Paradise.

A McClatchy analysis reveals more than 350,000 Californians live in 
towns and cities that exist almost entirely within "very high fire 
hazard severity zones" -- Cal Fire's designation for places highly 
vulnerable to devastating wildfires. These designations have proven 
eerily predictive about some of the state's most destructive wildfires 
in recent years, including the Camp Fire, the worst in state history.

Nearly all of Paradise is colored in bright red on Cal Fire's map -- 
practically the entire town was at severe risk before the Camp Fire 
raged through last November, burning the majority of homes in its path 
and killing 85 people...
- -
The maps aren't perfect in their ability to forecast where a fire will 
be destructive. For instance, the Coffey Park neighborhood of Santa Rosa 
isn't in a very high hazard zone, but powerful winds pushed the Tubbs 
Fire into that part of the city, largely leveling the neighborhood in 
October 2017.

Coffey Park was built "with zero consideration for fire," said Chris 
Dicus, a forestry and fire expert at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo. "Fire was 
in the mountains -- there was no consideration that fire would cross 
(Highway) 101."

Cal Fire is making new fire hazard maps - ready in a year or so - that 
will incorporate regional wind patterns and other climatological 
factors. In the meantime, experts say the current maps, created about a 
decade ago, still provide an important guide to predict where wildfires 
could do the most damage, in the same way floodplain maps highlight 
areas that could be hit hardest during severe storms...
https://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/fires/article227589484.html
- -
[When you smell smoke or see flames check here]
*California Statewide Fire Map*
https://www.fire.ca.gov/general/firemaps


[Minnesota teens take command]
*Minnesota Introduces Bold New Climate Change Bill Crafted by Teens*
Brian Kahn
- - -
"This is our future, and we're actually taking action on it," Anna Grace 
Hottinger, a 16 year old sophomore who helped author the bill, told Earther.

Hottinger is part of the group Minnesota Can't Wait, a youth-led climate 
advocacy group that has been pushing for climate action at the state 
level. The idea of a bill arose in the fall and the group has been 
meeting with Minnesota state legislators for months, including a January 
meeting Governor Tim Walz shortly after his inauguration. After that 
meeting, he announced a working group on climate change, something 
that's fine but pretty standard fare for kicking the can down the road...
- - -
Throughout, the text nods to the need for getting input from a wide 
range of groups including unions, low income communities, people of 
color, and tribes. Hottinger said those provisions were really 
important, and that Minnesota Can't Wait reached out to trade unions and 
other groups who would be impacted for feedback on the proposed text. 
The bill is ripe with language on how the state can help facilitate a 
just transition to a clean energy economy, from jobs training to 
identifying any economic impact the shift could have on electricity rates.

"The Minnesota Green New Deal not only represents a bold agenda toward 
climate change, but also represents a new style of politics, one that 
values people over profits," Tiger Worku, a junior from Minneapolis, 
said at the press conference announcing the bill on Wednesday....
- -
"This is the first I've ever witnessed high school students write a 
bill," Hornstein said at the press conference announcing the 
legislation. "They wrote it with a nonpartisan staff, but it's really 
their bill. They went door-to-door to get 17 co-sponsors. I've never see 
anything quite like it."

The bill's introduction is only the first step, and it's not immediately 
clear if it can pass, especially given a Republican-controlled state 
senate and the fact that it has no Republican co-sponsors. The response 
to Governor Walz's proposal in March to decarbonize the electric grid by 
2050 provides a hint of what kind of reaction the Green New Deal bill 
could engender. David Osmek, the Republican chairman of the senate's 
Committee on Energy and Utilities, said Walz's earlier proposal "ignores 
the stark reality that we will always have a need for traditional energy 
generation methods, which includes carbon-based options."
Hottinger said Minnesota Can't Wait is planning to continue drumming up 
support, though, by organizing town halls around the state and 
continuing outreach to legislators on both sides of the aisle. The group 
is also asking for hearings, something Congress has pointedly not done 
with the federal version of the bill.
https://earther.gizmodo.com/minnesota-introduces-bold-new-climate-change-bill-craft-1833969181



[Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research]
*More CO2 than ever before in 3 million years, shows unprecedented 
computer simulation*
03/04/2019 - CO2 greenhouse gas amounts in the atmosphere are likely 
higher today than ever before in the past 3 million years. For the first 
time, a team of scientists succeeded to do a computer simulation that 
fits ocean floor sediment data of climate evolution over this period of 
time. Ice age onset, hence the start of the glacial cycles from cold to 
warm and back, the study reveals, was mainly triggered by a decrease of 
CO2-levels. Yet today, it is the increase of greenhouse gases due to the 
burning of fossil fuels that is fundamentally changing our planet, the 
analysis further confirms. Global mean temperatures never exceeded the 
preindustrial levels by more than 2 degrees Celsius in the past 3 
million years, the study shows - while current climate policy inaction, 
if continued, would exceed the 2 degrees limit already in the next 50 years.
More CO2 than ever before in 3 million years, shows unprecedented 
computer simulation
Transien modelling results: Atmospheric CO2 concentration (in pink) 
compared to ice core data (solid line) and other proxies. Willeit et al, 
2019

"We know from the analysis of sediments on the bottom of our seas about 
past ocean temperatures and ice volumes, but so far the role of CO2 
changes in shaping the glacial cycles has not been fully understood," 
says Matteo Willeit of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact 
Research, lead author of the study now published in Science Advances. 
"It is a breakthrough that we can now show in computer simulations that 
changes in CO2 levels were a main driver of the ice ages, together with 
variations of how the Earth's orbits around the sun, the so-called  
Milankovitch cycles. These are actually not just simulations: we 
compared our results with the hard data from the deep sea, and they 
prove to be in good agreement. Our results imply a strong sensitivity of 
the Earth system to relatively small variations in atmospheric CO2. As 
fascinating as this is, it is also worrying."

Studying Earth's past and its natural climate variability is key to 
understanding possible future pathways of humanity. "It seems we're now 
pushing our home planet beyond any climatic conditions experienced 
during the entire current geological period, the Quaternary," says 
Willeit. "A period that started almost 3 million years ago and saw human 
civilization beginning only 11,000 years ago. So, the modern climate 
change we see is big, really big; even by standards of Earth history."
Learning from Earth's past to understand the future

Building on previous research at PIK, the researchers reproduced the 
main features of natural climate variability over the last few million 
years with an efficient numerical model - a computer simulation based on 
astronomical and geological data and algorithms representing the physics 
and chemistry of our planet. The simulation was driven only by 
well-known changes in the ways the Earth circles the sun, the so-called 
orbital cycles, and different scenarios for slowly varying boundary 
conditions, namely CO2 outgassing from volcanoes. The study also lookedt 
into changes in sediment distribution of the Earth surface, since ice 
sheets slide more easily on gravel than on bedrock. It has also 
accounted for the role of atmospheric dust, which makes the ice surface 
darker and thereby contributes to melting.

"The fact that the model can reproduce the main features of the observed 
climate history gives us confidence in our general understanding of how 
the climate system works," says co-author Andrey Ganopolski, author of 
several previous groundbreaking studies the new analysis now builds 
upon. "The simulations we develop have to be simple enough to allow for 
thousands of calculation runs of many thousands of years, and yet have 
to capture the critical factors that drive our climate. This is what we 
have achieved. And it is confirming how outstandingly important changes 
in CO2 levels are for Earth's climate."
Article: M. Willeit, A. Ganopolski, R. Calov, V. Brovkin (2019): 
Mid-Pleistocene transition in glacial cycles explained by declining CO2 
and regolith removal. Science Advances [DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aav7337]
Weblink to the article: http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/4/eaav7337
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/more-co2-than-ever-before-in-3-million-years-shows-unprecedented-computer-simulation



[McKibben]
*The clock keeps ticking in the fight to save the planet*
By Bill McKibben - APRIL 10, 2019
Thirty years ago I published "The End of Nature," which is often called 
the first book about global warming for a general audience. I was 28 -- 
a young man, newly wed, with a thick head of hair. I'm 58 now, my 
daughter has just announced her engagement, and the top of my head has 
turned shiny. I'm a little wistful about some of those changes, but they 
are natural, normal -- the proper progress of time.

Over the same period, the planet has changed at least as dramatically: 
More than half the sea ice in the Arctic is gone. Sea water is far more 
acidic, rainfall is far more intense, and temperatures and humidities 
are routinely reaching levels we've never recorded before. But none of 
this is natural or normal -- unlike humans, the earth is not supposed to 
change profoundly in the course of a few decades. In hundreds of 
millions of years of history, we've seen change anything like this only 
a few times -- say, when a giant asteroid strikes...
- -
For many years, there wasn't one; most of us assumed we were engaged in 
an argument and that if we produced enough books, reports, and journal 
articles our leaders would act. But eventually we figured out that, even 
having won the argument, we were now in a fight, and that the money of 
the oil companies would have to be matched by people in power. That 
force has been building: It's blocked pipelines, put huge parts of the 
earth off limits to fracking and drilling, and prompted the divestment 
of trillions of dollars from the stocks of energy companies. But it must 
quickly grow bigger still if it's going to change the outcome.

Because it's all too easy to look 30 years into the future. On current 
trajectories, economics alone mean we'll be building a lot more solar 
panels and wind turbines, but not fast enough to really alter the 
violent pace of global heating. Unless we goose the pace with government 
action, the world that we some day power with clean energy would be a 
dirty world, a broken planet. I do not want to turn 88 on that earth, 
and I definitely don't want anyone turning 28 on it. That's why we fight.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2019/04/10/the-clock-keeps-ticking-fight-save-planet/R8ZrHbh2yFqA8bNXe6wdjJ/story.html


[NYTimes Magazine]
*How Big Business Is Hedging Against the Apocalypse*
Investors are finally paying attention to climate change -- though not 
in the way you might hope.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/11/magazine/climate-change-exxon-renewable-energy.html


[Discussions in adaptation]
*The Love in Deep Adaptation - A Philosophy for the Forum*
Posted by jembendell on March 17, 2019...
- - -
Deep Adaptation refers to the personal and collective changes that might 
help us to prepare for - and live with - a climate-induced collapse of 
our societies. Unlike mainstream work on adaptation to climate change, 
it doesn't assume that our current economic, social, and political 
systems can be resilient in the face of rapid climate change. When using 
the term social or societal collapse, we are referring the uneven ending 
to our current means of sustenance, shelter, security, pleasure, 
identity and meaning. Others may prefer the term societal breakdown when 
referring to the same process. We consider this process to be 
inevitable, because of our view that humanity will not be able to 
respond globally fast enough to protect our food supplies from chaotic 
weather. People who consider that societal collapse or breakdown is 
either possible, likely or already unfolding, also are interested in 
deep adaptation.

Four questions guide our work on Deep Adaptation within the forum:

- Resilience: what do we most value that we want to keep and how?
- Relinquishment: what do we need to let go of so as not to make matters 
worse?
- Restoration: what could we bring back to help us with these difficult 
times?
- Reconciliation: with what and whom shall we make peace as we awaken to 
our mutual mortality?
These questions invite exploration of Deep Adaptation to our climate 
predicament in order to develop both collapse-readiness and 
collapse-transcendence.

Collapse-readiness includes the mental and material measures that will 
help reduce disruption to human life - enabling an equitable supply of 
the basics like food, water, energy, payment systems and health.
Collapse-transcendence refers to the psychological, spiritual and 
cultural shifts that may enable more people to experience greater 
equanimity toward future disruptions and the likelihood that our 
situation is beyond our control.
Uncertainty and lack of control are key aspects of our predicament; we 
do not know whether what we do will slow climate change and societal 
collapse or reduce harm at scale. It looks likely to us that many will 
die young and that we may die sooner than we had expected. That does not 
mean we do not try to extend the glide and soften the crash - and learn 
from the whole experience.
https://jembendell.wordpress.com/2019/03/17/the-love-in-deep-adaptation-a-philosophy-for-the-forum/
- - -
*The study on collapse they thought you should not read - yet*
Posted by jembendell on July 26, 2018
https://jembendell.wordpress.com/2018/07/26/the-study-on-collapse-they-thought-you-should-not-read-yet/
- -- 
[continuing dialog]
*Responding to Green Positivity Critiques of Deep Adaptation*
https://jembendell.wordpress.com/2019/04/10/responding-to-green-positivity-critiques-of-deep-adaptation/


[Inside Climate News]
*Extreme Hemispheric Heat Waves Like 2018's Growing More Common with 
Climate Change, Study Says*
Heat waves are covering wider areas, and people are suffering the 
consequences. With 2C of warming, most summers will look like 2018, 
scientists say.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/11042019/2018-heat-wave-climate-change-attribution-northern-hemisphere-extreme-weather-record



[More guys talking and joking in 'Crazy Town' score a few insightful 
comments]
*"Zombies vs MILFs"*
With equal parts humor and in-depth analysis, Asher, Rob, and Jason 
safeguard their sanity while probing crazy-making topics like climate 
change, overshoot, runaway capitalism, and why we're all deluding ourselves.
Apocalypse is upon us, at least in movies, television shows, books, and 
even podcasts. Teen characters in youth literature are more likely to 
solve their differences by bow-hunting one another rather than hugging 
it out in the school hallways. In this episode, Asher, Rob, and Jason 
search for reasons why the movie theater is so obsessed with Armageddon 
and the political theater offers empty promises of infinite progress, 
when the reality is likely to be somewhere in the messy middle. For 
listeners interested in culinary topics, this is your chance to explore 
cannibalism-lite cuisine.
https://www.postcarbon.org/crazytown/


[Forwarding the link to the essay]
*Existential risk, Neoliberalism and UN Climate Policymaking*
By David Spratt, originally published by Climate Code Red
April 11, 2019
We have to save the world but we have to save it in a muddled way, in a 
chaotic way, and also in a costly way. That is the bottom line, if you 
want to do it in an [economically] optimal way, you will fail...
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-04-11/existential-risk-neoliberalism-and-un-climate-policymaking/


*This Day in Climate History - April 12, 2013 - from D.R. Tucker*
April 12, 2013: Joe Romm of Climate Progress and Kevin Trenberth of the 
National Center for Atmospheric Research point out the flaws in a NOAA 
study regarding recent droughts in the United States.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/04/12/1859541/yes-climate-change-is-worsening-us-drought-noaa-report-needlessly-confuses-the-issue/
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