[TheClimate.Vote] April 14, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Sun Apr 14 10:56:32 EDT 2019
/April 14, 2019/
[AP report in the spirit of Rachel Carson]
*Pace of Bering Sea changes startles scientists*
**By DAN JOLING
Scientists who study the northern Bering Sea say they're seeing changed
ocean conditions that were projected by climate models, but not until 2050
ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) -- The Yupik Eskimo village of Kotlik on Alaska's
northwest coast relies on a cold, hard blanket of sea ice to protect
homes from vicious winter Bering Sea storms.
Frigid north winds blow down from the Arctic Ocean, freeze saltwater and
push sea ice south. The ice normally prevents waves from forming and
locks onto beaches, walling off villages. But not this year.
In February, southwest winds brought warm air and turned thin sea ice
into "snow cone ice" that melted or blew off. When a storm pounded
Norton Sound, water on Feb. 12 surged up the Yukon River and into
Kotlik, flooding low-lying homes. Lifelong resident Philomena Keyes, 37,
awoke to knee-deep water outside her house.
"This is the first I experienced in my life, a flood that happened in
the winter, in February," Keyes said in a phone interview.
Winter storm surge flooding is the latest indication that something's
off-kilter around the Bering Strait, the gateway from the Pacific Ocean
to the Arctic Ocean. Rapid, profound changes tied to high atmospheric
temperatures, a direct result of climate change, may be reordering the
region's physical makeup. Ocean researchers are asking themselves if
they're witnessing the transformation of an ecosystem.
The Bering Sea last winter saw record-low sea ice. Climate models
predicted less ice, but not this soon, said Seth Danielson, a physical
oceanographer at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.
"The projections were saying we would've hit situations similar to what
we saw last year, but not for another 40 or 50 years," Danielson said.
Walruses and seals use sea ice to rest and give birth. Villagers use sea
ice to hunt them. Sea ice is the primary habitat of polar bears. Algae
that clings to the bottom of sea ice blooms in spring, dies and sinks,
sending an infusion of food to clams, snails and sea worms on the ocean
floor -- the prey of gray whales, walruses and bearded seals.
Sea ice also affects commercially valuable fish. Sea ice historically
has created a Bering Sea "cold pool," an east-west barrier of extremely
cold, salty water at the bottom of the wide, shallow continental shelf.
The wall of cold water historically has concentrated Pacific cod and
walleye pollock in the southeastern Bering Sea.
"It tends to extend from the Russian side to the northwest," said Lyle
Britt, a fisheries biologist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration. "It kind of comes down almost like a little hockey stick
shape ... through the center of the southeast Bering Sea."
However, when Britt and other NOAA researchers last year conducted
annual fish and ocean condition surveys, they got a big surprise: For
the first time in 37 years, they found no cold pool.
Researchers found high concentrations of Pacific cod and walleye pollock
in the northern Bering Sea. But the species that was supposed to be
there, Arctic cod, was hardly found.
More than half the fish landed in U.S. waters come from the North
Pacific, and most are caught in the Bering Sea. Chad See, executive
director of the Freezer Longline Coalition, a trade association of
vessels that target Pacific cod using baited lines, said members caught
their quota last year but had to travel farther north.
"Does that mean that the stock is declining, is suffering because of the
warming temperatures? Or is it that they've moved north and it's still a
vibrant fishery?" See said.
It's too soon to conclude that atmosphere and ocean changes are due
simply to climate change, said NOAA physical oceanographer Phyllis
Stabeno, who has studied the Bering Sea for more than 30 years. The
southern Bering Sea since 2000 has undergone multi-year stanzas of low
and extensive ice, she said.
When sea ice in November began forming as usual, she expected a
bounce-back this winter. Instead, warm winds in February mostly cleared
the northern Bering Sea of sea ice through the Bering Strait into the
Chukchi Sea.
"We're in winter," she said. "This is all supposed to be frozen."
Formation of the cold pool is again in doubt. It could return in the
future, but temperatures are trending upward with the rate of greenhouse
gases entering the atmosphere.
Scientists say figuring out the ocean physics is far less of a challenge
than projecting the biological ramifications.
"We sort of opened up this whole Pandora's box of not really knowing how
the ecosystem as a whole is going to adjust to that," Danielson said.
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the National Park Service early
last summer detected trouble. Resident called with reports of emaciated
and dead seabirds.
Common murres, which can use up fat reserves and starve after three days
without eating, fly hundreds miles to find fish schools or krill but
were washing up dead on shore. Forktail storm petrels, fulmars,
shearwaters, kittiwakes, auklets and puffins also died.
No one can say why. Seabird experts wonder whether the presence of more
pollock and Pacific cod, which have voracious appetites and are far more
efficient hunters of forage fish than seabirds, was a factor.
Dean Stockwell, a research associate professor at the University of
Alaska Fairbanks with a specialty in phytoplankton, said the ocean
changes have the potential to affect plant life at the bottom of the
food web but it's too soon to know.
Of immediate concern is whether warmer water will allow harmful algae
containing toxins to stay viable long enough for shellfish to eat them
and pass toxins to marine mammals and people. Toxins are being carried
to the Arctic, Stockwell said.
"The question with global warming types of things is, 'Can it get a
foothold? Can they do damage?'" he said.
Seabird experts wonder if toxins played a role in recent seabird deaths
by affecting their ability to forage.
No one has connected the dots, said Britt, the NOAA fisheries biologist.
"At the moment, nobody's sitting with in-hand a comprehensive research
study that covers the birds and the mammals and the fish and the
zooplankton all in one synthesized report," he said, adding that it will
take researchers more time to figure out what's going on.
Meantime, Kotlik resident Keyes is researching climate change effects in
her coastal village of 650 as project coordinator for a team working
under a Bureau of Indian Affairs program.
The absence of sea ice since mid-February meant taking land routes to
visit nearby villages, she said. And seal hunters this spring found
bearded seals to harvest but not near the village.
Like the cod fishermen, "They had to go farther north," Keyes said.
https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2019/04/13/us/ap-us-bering-sea-transformation.html
[Thanks RollingStone, yes, it is.]
*Is This the Dumbest Moment in Congressional History?*
A Kentucky congressman's impossibly daft line of questioning left John
Kerry flabbergasted
Tim Dickinson
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) may have studied robotics at MIT, but he is
now responsible for one of the most asinine moments in congressional
history.
At a House committee hearing Tuesday on "The Need for Leadership to
Combat Climate Change and Protect National Security," the Kentucky
Republican thought he could pwn former secretary of state John Kerry.
Kerry is an expert on climate change who helped broker the Paris climate
accord and recently criticized president Trump for proposing to set up a
task force that seeks to counter the scientific consensus on climate
change. Massie calls advocates of climate action "alarmists" and
believes that the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide is "plant food."
The transcript of the literally unbelievable exchange follows:
*Massie:* Sec. Kerry, I want to read part of your statement back to
you: "Instead of convening a kangaroo court, the president might
want to talk with the educated adults he once trusted his top
national security positions." It sounds like you're questioning the
credentials of the president's advisers, currently. But I think we
should question your credentials today. Isn't it true you have a
science degree from Yale?
*Kerry:* Bachelor of arts degree.
*Massie:* Is it a political science degree?
*Kerry:* Yes, political science.
*Massie:* So how do you get a bachelor of arts, in a science?
*Kerry:* Well it's a liberal arts education and degree. It's a bachelor…
*Massie:* OK. So it's not really science. So I think it's somewhat
appropriate that someone with a pseudo-science degree is here
pushing pseudo-science in front of our committee today.
*Kerry:* Are you serious?! I mean this is really a serious happening
here?
*Massie: *You know what? It is serious. You're calling the
president's Cabinet a "kangaroo court." Is that serious?
*Kerry: *I'm not calling his Cabinet a kangaroo court, I'm calling
this committee that he's putting together a kangaroo committee.
*Massie:* Are you saying it doesn't have educated adults now?
*Kerry:* I don't know who it has yet because it's secret.
*Massie**:* Well you said it in your testimony.
*Kerry:* Why would he have to have a secret analysis of climate change?
*Massie:* Let's get back to the science of it.
*Kerry:* But it's not science, you're not quoting science!
*Massie:* Well, You're the science expert. You have the political
science degree.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/dumbest-moment-congressional-history-820690/
[Paul Beckwith video]
*Food Supply Threats from Ongoing Catastrophic FLOODING in US Midwest*
Paul Beckwith
Published on Apr 12, 2019
I chat about ongoing US Midwest misery from a deep, persistent jet
stream trough. After a cold snowy winter, a "bomb cyclone" dumped up to
5 feet of snow over a wide area; then another hit the region; the
forecast indicates the possibility of a third event. These storms occur
over the ocean as well known "nor'easter's", but rarely over land.
Ongoing rain and snow from ongoing storm trains flooded many farms, and
destroyed stored grains. Normal April planting is not happening. Not
good for our food supply.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDJUVc1-om8
[Melting proceeds]
*Landslides on Arctic island have increased 6,000% since 1984, study finds*
'A single warm summer can have a very long impact,' says permafrost
scientist
Avery Zingel · CBC News · Posted: Apr 02, 2019
Landslides caused by thawing permafrost on a Canadian Arctic island have
increased by over 60 times since 1984, according to a new study, and
could triple again by the end of the century.
In the study, published in Nature Communications, researchers from the
University of Ottawa found the number of thaw slumps on Banks Island
rose from 63 to 4,077 in 30 years.
Those researchers predict that based on the same moderate climate
warming scenarios used by the International Panel on Climate Change,
slumping will multiply. Between 2075 and 2085, Banks Island could see
10,000 new slumps, according to the study, with a similar number each
decade that follows.
- -
"In many parts of the Canadian Arctic there's lots of old ice that's
been preserved, essentially left over from the last glaciation. And it's
these landscapes that are extremely sensitive to contemporary climate
change," he said.
"There's some pretty important implications to water quality which, of
course, communities are going to be very interested in."
Past studies have shown permafrost thaw can "dramatically affect" water
quality in lakes and streams, said Kokelj.
"Figuring out how those impacts kind of cascade through the system
becomes really important in terms of managing our water resources."
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/landslides-canadian-arctic-1.5080617
[TV documentary]
*With the Netflix Series "Our Planet," David Attenborough Delivers an
Urgent Message*
By Rachel RiedererApril 13, 2019
"Our Planet" is a departure from Attenborough's previous documentaries.
It places global climate catastrophe front and center, and treats the
problems of climate change and habitat loss with a new urgency. "The
longer we leave it, the more difficult it will be to solve the problem,"
Attenborough, who is ninety-two, told me over the phone from Washington,
where he was going to deliver a speech to the International Monetary
Fund. "Eventually, of course, you can't solve the problems, and the
result is chaos."
The changes in the series seem to reflect a kind of political evolution
in Attenborough...
- - -
Attenborough said that these documentaries have always had a role to
play in teaching people about how earth's systems work, so that this
understanding and valuing of nature can filter up to the elected
officials they choose; they are more important than ever now that half
of the world's population is urbanized, he told me, and therefore
perhaps more disconnected from the natural world. Later in the day, in
his speech to the I.M.F., Attenborough critiqued our dependence on
fossil fuels and government subsidies of them, drew a connection between
global migration and climate change, and called for nations to uphold
their commitments to the Paris climate accord. Over the phone, he spoke
like someone with financial systems on his mind. "The principles by
which you deal with the natural world are very like the way you deal
with finance," he said. "If you have a system that is producing you an
income, you are very foolish if you take so much of the profits that you
start eroding your capital--you're heading for a disaster."
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/on-television/with-the-netflix-series-our-planet-david-attenborough-delivers-an-urgent-message
[More like an "Ice Melter" - interesting details. ]
*"Hair Dryer" Winds Could Strain Vulnerable Antarctic Ice Shelf*
Warm, dry winds can cause major melt as they sweep across the ice, even
during frigid winter months
Warm, dry winds sweeping across Antarctica can temporarily cause
extraordinary melting events. Known as "foehn" winds -- from a German
word often translated as "hair dryer" -- they pack a major punch, even
during the frigid fall and winter months.
It's a natural phenomenon, periodically occurring in various regions of
the ice sheet. But some researchers say continued climate change could
alter some of the atmospheric circulation patterns driving the winds,
potentially causing them to occur more frequently in the future.
That could put a major strain on places like the vulnerable Larsen C ice
shelf, located on the northeast Antarctic Peninsula.
Research increasingly suggests that foehn winds have a major effect on
the ice shelf's melt rates in ways that could make it more prone to
fracturing and potentially collapsing...
- - -
"Even if you don't have large-scale melting occurring during the summer,
the ice shelf is still vulnerable to foehn winds occurring during other
parts of the season," Datta said. In fact, foehn events tend to be
strongest during the colder seasons, she added.
The extra meltwater trickles down into the porous snow on top of the ice
sheet and refreezes there once temperatures go back down, the
researchers note. This causes the ice shelf to become denser, which
scientists believe can make it more vulnerable to breaking and
collapsing down the road.
The region has already seen some major changes in the past two decades.
In 2002, the nearby Larsen B ice shelf abruptly collapsed, likely
weakened by a series of unusually warm summers that caused large amounts
of meltwater to accumulate on its surface...
- - -
Glaciologist Peter Munneke of Utrecht University in the Netherlands is
one of those scientists who suggest that foehn winds may happen more
frequently in a warming world. The conditions that lead to foehn events
are often characterized by strong westerly winds around Antarctica. And
some research indicates that "westerly winds in the southern hemisphere
will increase under increased greenhouse gas concentrations," he noted
in an email to E&E News.
Munneke led a 2018 study, also published in Geophysical Research
Letters, that pointed to a significant increase in winter melting on the
Larsen C ice shelf when foehn winds sweep through. The researchers noted
that although no trends have been observed in these kinds of events so
far, they "anticipate an increase in winter melt as a response to
increasing greenhouse gas concentration" in the future.
And that would mean a one-two punch from climate change on the Antarctic
Peninsula.
Datta noted that continued climate warming will likely cause additional
melting in the region either way, particularly during the warmer months
of the year. But she agreed that while the impact of climate change on
atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere still needs more
investigation, it's an important consideration, as well.
"It's certainly something to worry about," she said.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ldquo-hair-dryer-rdquo-winds-could-strain-vulnerable-antarctic-ice-shelf/
[Warmest since long before ]
*Arctic is warmest it's been in 10,000 years, study suggests*
Social Sharing
Permafrost samples suggest Arctic is 2 C warmer than previous record
highs thousands of years ago
CBC News · Posted: Apr 12, 2019
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/arctic-warmest-in-10000-years-1.5094392
[Bill McKibben has a new book coming out; clips from exerpt-]
*This Is How Human Extinction Could Play Out*
Food-system collapse, sea-level rise, disease. In his new book "Falter,"
Bill McKibben asks, "Is it Too Late?"
By BILL MCKIBBEN
Excerpted from "FALTER: Has the Human Game Begun to Play Itself Out?" by
Bill McKibben. Published by Henry Holt and Company April 16th 2019.
Copyright © 2019 by Bill McKibben. All rights reserved.
Oh, it could get very bad.
In 2015, a study in the Journal of Mathematical Biology pointed out that
if the world's oceans kept warming, by 2100 they might become hot enough
to "stop oxygen production by phyto-plankton by disrupting the process
of photosynthesis." Given that two-thirds of the Earth's oxygen comes
from phytoplankton, that would "likely result in the mass mortality of
animals and humans."...
- - -
There's even this: if we keep raising carbon dioxide levels, we may not
be able to think straight anymore. At a thousand parts per million
(which is within the realm of possibility for 2100), human cognitive
ability falls 21 percent. "The largest effects were seen for Crisis
Response, Information Usage, and Strategy," a Harvard study reported,
which is too bad, as those skills are what we seem to need most...
- - -
But let's try to occupy ourselves with the most likely scenarios,
because they are more than disturbing enough. Long before we get to
tidal waves or smallpox, long before we choke to death or stop thinking
clearly, we will need to concentrate on the most mundane and basic
facts: everyone needs to eat every day, and an awful lot of us live near
the ocean.
FOOD SUPPLY first. We've had an amazing run since the end of World War
II, with crop yields growing fast enough to keep ahead of a fast-rising
population. It's come at great human cost -- displaced peasant farmers
fill many of the planet's vast slums -- but in terms of sheer volume,
the Green Revolution's fertilizers, pesticides, and machinery managed to
push output sharply upward. That climb, however, now seems to be running
into the brute facts of heat and drought...
- - -
A 2017 study in Australia, home to some of the world's highest-tech
farming, found that "wheat productivity has flatlined as a direct result
of climate change." After tripling between 1900 and 1990, wheat yields
had stagnated since, as temperatures increased a degree and rainfall
declined by nearly a third....
- - -
Corn is vulnerable because even a week of high temperatures at the key
moment can keep it from fertilizing. ("You only get one chance to
pollinate a quadrillion kernels of corn," the head of a commodity
consulting firm explained.) But even the hardiest crops are susceptible.
Sorghum, for instance, which is a staple for half a billion humans, is
particularly hardy in dry conditions because it has big, fibrous roots
that reach far down into the earth. Even it has limits, though, and they
are being reached. Thirty years of data from the American Midwest show
that heat waves affect the "vapor pressure deficit," the difference
between the water vapor in the sorghum leaf's interior and that in the
surrounding air. Hotter weather means the sorghum releases more moisture
into the atmosphere. Warm the planet's temperature by two degrees
Celsius -- which is, again, now the world's goal -- and sorghum yields
drop 17 percent. Warm it five degrees Celsius (nine degrees Fahrenheit),
and yields drop almost 60 percent...
- - -
At about the same time, a team of British researchers released a study
demonstrating that even if you can grow plenty of food, the
transportation system that distributes it runs through just fourteen
major choke-points, and those are vulnerable to -- you guessed it --
massive disruption from climate change. For instance, U.S. rivers and
canals carry a third of the world's corn and soy, and they've been
frequently shut down or crimped by flooding and drought in recent years.
Brazil accounts for 17 percent of the world's grain exports, but heavy
rainfall in 2017 stranded three thousand trucks. "It's the glide path to
a perfect storm," said one of the report's authors.
Five weeks after that, another report raised an even deeper question.
What if you can figure out how to grow plenty of food, and you can
figure out how to guarantee its distribution, but the food itself has
lost much of its value?...
The paper, in the journal Environmental Research, said that rising
carbon dioxide levels, by speeding plant growth, seem to have reduced
the amount of protein in basic staple crops, a finding so startling
that, for many years, agronomists had overlooked hints that it was
happening. But it seems to be true: when researchers grow grain at the
carbon dioxide levels we expect for later this century, they find that
minerals such as calcium and iron drop by 8 percent, and protein by
about the same amount. In the developing world, where people rely on
plants for their protein, that means huge reductions in nutrition: India
alone could lose 5 percent of the protein in its total diet, putting 53
million people at new risk for protein deficiency. The loss of zinc,
essential for maternal and infant health, could endanger 138 million
people around the world. In 2018, rice researchers found "significantly
less protein" when they grew eighteen varieties of rice in high-carbon
dioxide test plots. "The idea that food became less nutritious was a
surprise," said one researcher. "It's not intuitive. But I think we
should continue to expect surprises. We are completely altering the
biophysical conditions that underpin our food system." And not just
ours. People don't depend on goldenrod, for instance, but bees do. When
scientists looked at samples of goldenrod in the Smithsonian that dated
back to 1842, they found that the protein content of its pollen had
"declined by a third since the industrial revolution -- and the change
closely tracks with the rise in carbon dioxide."...
- - -
Throughout the Holocene (the ten-thousand-year period that began as the
last ice age ceased, the stretch that encompasses all recorded human
history), the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere stayed stable, and
therefore so did the sea level, and hence it took a while for people to
worry about sea level rise. The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted in 2003 that sea level should rise a
mere half meter by the end of the twenty-first century, most of that
coming because warm water takes up more space than cold, and while a
half meter would be enough to cause expense and trouble, it wouldn't
really interfere with settlement patterns. But even as the IPCC
scientists made that estimate, they cautioned that it didn't take into
account the possible melt of the great ice sheets over Greenland and
Antarctica. And pretty much everything we've learned in the years since
makes scientists think that those ice sheets are horribly vulnerable...
- - -
As Jeff Goodell (who in 2017 wrote the most comprehensive book to date
on sea level rise) put it, such a rise would "create generations of
climate refugees that will make today's Syrian war refugee crisis look
like a high school drama production."...
- - -
The biggest worry for people losing their homes is . . . losing their
homes. So, let me tell you about a trip I took last summer, to the ice
shelf of Greenland. I was with a pair of veteran ice scientists and two
young poets -- a woman named Kathy Jetnil-Kijiner, from the Marshall
Islands in the Pacific, and another named Aka Niviana, who was born on
this largest of all the Earth's islands, a massive sheet of ice that,
when it melts, will raise the level of the oceans more than twenty feet...
- - -
Science can tell us a good deal about this crisis. Jason Box, an
American glaciologist who organized the trip, has spent the last
twenty-five years journeying to Greenland. "We called this place where
we are now the Eagle Glacier because of its shape when we first came
here five years ago," Box said. "But now the head and the wings of the
bird have melted away. I don't know what we should call it now, but the
eagle is dead." He busied himself replacing the batteries in his remote
weather stations, scattered across the ice. They tell one story, but his
colleague Alun Hubbard, a Welsh scientist, conceded that there were
limits to what instruments could explain. "It's just gobsmacking looking
at the trauma of the landscape," he said. "I just couldn't register the
scale of how the ice sheet had changed in my head."
- - -
We all have losses already. Where I live, it's the seasons: winter
doesn't reliably mean winter anymore, and so the way we've always
viscerally told time has begun to break down. In California, it's the
sense of ease: the smell of the fire next time lingers in the eucalyptus
groves. There are many ways to be poorer, and we're going to find out
all of them.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/bill-mckibben-falter-climate-change-817310/
[Three guys do media happy-talk while standing in harsh reality]
*Republican Climate Myths (with Joe Romm)*
Hotpocalypse
Published on Apr 13, 2019
Joe Romm (founding editor of Climate Progress) joins us to discuss
Republican climate myths, and how to fight them!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBgY93B7fWc
*This Day in Climate History - April 14, 1964 - from D.R. Tucker*
April 14, 1964: Writer and biologist Rachel Carson, whose 1962 book
"Silent Spring" galvanized a generation to take environmental concerns
seriously, passes away at 56.
http://www.nytimes.com/books/97/10/05/reviews/carson-obit.html
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