[TheClimate.Vote] August 2, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/August 2, 2019/


[Dems on climate]
*How 2020 Democrats plan to fight climate change*
https://www.vox.com/2019/6/25/18715447/green-new-deal-climate-change-first-democrat-debate


[Most radical position]
*Andrew Yang urges Americans to move to higher ground because response 
to climate change is 'too late'**
*Published: July 31, 2019 10:28 p.m. ET
DETROIT -- Andrew Yang says it's already too late to stop climate 
change, and that it's time for Americans to head for the hills.
Yang, debating his fellow Democrats on Wednesday night in Detroit, had 
this to say when the subject of climate change was in full swing.

    'We are too late. We are 10 years too late. We need to do everything
    we can to start moving the climate in the right direction but we
    also need to start moving our people to higher ground.' -- Andrew Yang

- -
He said the best way to move to higher ground is to "put economic 
resources into your hands so you can protect yourself and your families."

Yang said the U.S. acts like it controls 100% of global emissions 
itself, and that, "the truth is even if we were to curb our emissions 
dramatically, the Earth is still going to get warmer, and we can see it 
around us this summer."

The environment and climate change took turns in the spotlight over two 
nights of debates in Detroit.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/andrew-yang-urges-americans-to-move-to-higher-ground-because-response-to-climate-change-is-too-late-2019-07-31


[article from UNION OF CONCERNED SCIENTISTS]
*What do Alaska Wildfires Mean for Global Climate Change?*
CARLY PHILLIPS - JULY 31, 2019
Alaska is on fire.
During the (on-going) 2019 fire season, over 2 million acres have burned 
– an area roughly equivalent to that of Yellowstone National Park. In 
comparison to many fires in the conterminous United States, many fires 
in Alaska burn far away from population centers, and as such can be 
fought and responded to differently. However, to put the alarming nature 
of this season in context, the 2019 fire season in Alaska has already 
burned greater acreage than ALL fires in California during 2018 (~1.8 
million acres), the year of the devastating Camp, Woolsey, and Carr 
fires. We can see in the figure below that 2019 is slated to burn far 
more acreage than an average Alaskan season and may be on a trajectory 
to surpass 3 million acres burned...
https://blog.ucsusa.org/carly-phillips/alaska-wildfires-climate-change


["the totalizing challenge" - best interview with Inslee I have heard]
*The Climate Campaign with Gov. Jay Inslee*
Why Is This Happening? with Chris Hayes
Gov. Jay Inslee is running a presidential campaign unlike any other. The 
Washington governor is basing his run on the fundamental organizing 
premise that the climate crisis is more important than anything else. 
It's a unique strategy that comes at a time when more and more people 
are recognizing the urgency of the climate crisis. But while climate is 
moving up on the list of issues voters care about, Gov. Inslee is making 
the case that it's not just 'an issue - it's 'the issue'.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/why-is-this-happening-with-chris-hayes/id1382983397?i=1000445112711


[Video from Beckwith]
*How Much Heating can we EXPECT from an Ice-Free Arctic Ocean?*
Paul Beckwith
Published on Aug 1, 2019
Abrupt Climate System Disruption is clearly accelerating; we are in a 
global climate EMERGENCY, not yet widely acknowledged by the powers that 
run our society. This will change very soon, as geopolitics pivots to a 
fight for our very existence on this planet. The HUGE Achilles Heel of 
our climate system is the Arctic, and the Blue Ocean Event that is 
coming at us like a freight train. It will hit us hard, but how hard? I 
don’t have anywhere near all the answers but I go through the very 
latest science and my thoughts on what we can expect in a few short 
years when Arctic sea-ice vanishes from the top of our planet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34A-bsXDYII



[US Army ]
*Army War College: The U.S. Military is "Precariously Underprepared" for 
Climate Change*
US Army War College -Implications of Climate Change for the U.S. Army - 
2019 - By Mariah Furtek,

The United States Army War College recently released a report exploring 
the significant impact climate change will have on national security and 
U.S. Army operations, and offering a set of urgent recommendations. The 
second sentence of the report sets the stage immediately, stating "the 
Department of Defense is precariously underprepared for the national 
security implications of climate change-induced global security 
challenges."

The report details the most eminent threats climate change poses to 
national security: severe weather events, mass migration, diminishing 
global freshwater supplies, changing disease vectors, Arctic 
competition, stress on the U.S. power grid and nuclear reactors, as well 
as sea-level rise.

In addition to addressing these broader climate security risks, the 
authors focus on the U.S. Army and highlight how diminished freshwater 
supplies jeopardize existing hydration practices. Currently, the Army 
relies heavily on bottled water and local wells in the theater of 
operation to hydrate troops when they are deployed. The Army lacks 
in-house hydration capacity: the Brigade Combat Teams, for example, have 
not been able to support their own water needs since 2015.

Reliance on external sources for water poses a serious threat to Army 
mobility and capacity. This threat expands as environments around the 
world grow even hotter, increasing troops' demand for water. As stated 
by the authors, "The US Army is precipitously close to mission failure 
concerning hydration of the force in contested arid environments." To 
mitigate this risk, the report recommends the Army explore advanced 
technologies that capture ambient humidity and recycle water for reuse.

At the pole, melting ice in the Arctic is opening a new zone of 
competition over Arctic transit routes and natural resources. The report 
argues that the Army must improve training and equipment to prepare for 
an expanded role in the Arctic. To highlight the importance of U.S. Army 
investment in Arctic operations, the authors draw attention to Russia's 
ongoing renovation of its Soviet-era Arctic bases and expansion of its 
"Arctic Army."

The report also highlights how the Army will be called on to respond to 
domestic and foreign infectious disease outbreaks due to its unique 
proficiency operating in challenging environments. The Army must prepare 
for an increase in frequency and intensity of these disease outbreaks as 
changing disease vectors and a warmer, more humid climate amplify 
tickborne diseases and malaria.

The authors advise the Army to prepare for future restrictions on fuel 
use by running simulations using virtual and augmented reality.

Finally, the report recommends that the Army engage proactively in 
climate change-oriented campaign planning to anticipate future climate 
conflicts and mass migration in countries like Bangladesh. Incorporating 
future challenges into today's budgets will distribute the cost of 
adaptation.

Climate change is radically altering the theater of operations and the 
homefront, increasing the challenges the U.S. military faces at each 
stage of its national security mission. This report echoes the need to 
more fully incorporate climate threats into our security awareness and 
military readiness.
https://climateandsecurity.org/2019/08/01/army-war-college-the-u-s-military-is-precariously-underprepared-for-climate-change/
= = = =
[download the full report ]
*Implications of Climate Change for the **U.S. Army*
https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2019/07/implications-of-climate-change-for-us-army_army-war-college_2019.pdf


[easy to see if we look]
*Are We Watching the Arctic Pass a Tipping Point This Summer?*
https://earther.gizmodo.com/are-we-watching-the-arctic-pass-a-tipping-point-this-su-1836824810



[Arctic speed melt]
*Greenland Is Melting Away Before Our Eyes*
"I have my fingers crossed for it not being washed away"
By ERIC HOLTHAUS
Amid an ongoing heat wave, new data show the Greenland ice sheet is in 
the middle of its biggest melt season in recorded history. It's the 
latest worrying signal climate change is accelerating far beyond the 
worst fears of even climate scientists.

The record-setting heat wave that sweltered northern Europe last week 
has moved north over the critically vulnerable Greenland ice sheet, 
triggering temperatures this week that are as much as 25 to 30 degrees 
Fahrenheit warmer than normal.

Weather models indicate Tuesday's temperature may have surpassed 75 
degrees Fahrenheit in some regions of Greenland, and a weather balloon 
launched near the capital Nuuk measured all-time record warmth just 
above the surface. That heat wave is still intensifying, and is expected 
to peak on Thursday with the biggest single-day melt ever recorded in 
Greenland. On August 1 alone, more than 12 billion tons of water will 
permanently melt away from the ice sheet and find its way down to the 
ocean, irreversibly raising sea levels globally.

A tweet from the Danish Meteorological Institute, the official weather 
service of Greenland, said "almost all the ice sheet, including Summit" 
measurably melted on Tuesday. According to a preliminary estimate, that 
melt covered 87 percent of the ice sheet's surface, which would be the 
second-biggest melt day in Greenland's recorded history. Separate 
weather monitoring equipment at Summit Camp at the top of the 
10,000-foot-thick Greenland ice sheet confirmed the temperature briefly 
reached the melting point.

Downhill, meltwater was seen dramatically streaming off the edge of the 
ice sheet in massive waterfalls. Climate scientist Irina Overeem, who 
placed a meltwater monitoring station in western Greenland eight years 
ago, recorded a dramatic video of a rushing torrent of water. In a 
comment posted on Twitter, she said "I have my fingers crossed for it 
not being washed away." In an email to Rolling Stone, Overeem described 
the nature of life in Greenland these days: After recording that video, 
she spotted a warning of the major glacial water runoff on the 
announcement board of the main supermarket in the capital city. A 
similar glacial flood in 2012 was so intense it washed away bridge.
Ice core records show melt days like these have happened only a handful 
of times in the past 1,000 years. But, with the advent of human-caused 
climate change, the chances of these full-scale melt events happening 
are sharply increasing.

Even just a few decades ago, an event like this would have been 
unthinkable. Now, island-wide meltdown days like this are becoming 
increasingly routine. The ongoing melt event is the second time in seven 
years that virtually the entire ice sheet simultaneously experienced at 
least some melt. The last was in July 2012, where 97 percent of the ice 
sheet simultaneously melted.

In the 1980s, wintertime snows in Greenland roughly balanced summertime 
melt from the ice sheet, and the conventional wisdom among scientists 
was that it might take thousands of years for the ice to completely melt 
under pressure from global warming.

That's all changed now.

With a decade or two of hindsight, scientists now believe Greenland 
passed an important tipping point around 2003, and since then its melt 
rate has more than quadrupled.

This week alone, Greenland will lose about 50 billion tons of ice, 
enough for a permanent rise in global sea levels by about 0.1mm. So far 
in July, the Greenland ice sheet has lost 160 billion tons of ice -- 
enough to cover Florida in about six feet of water. According to IPCC 
estimates, that's roughly the level of melt a typical summer will have 
in 2050 under the worst-case warming scenario if we don't take 
meaningful action to address climate change. Under that same scenario, 
this week's brutal, deadly heat wave would be normal weather in the 2070s.

Xavier Fettweis, a polar scientist at the University of Liège in Belgium 
who tracks meltwater on the Greenland ice sheet, told Rolling Stone in 
an email that the recent acceleration of these melt events means the 
IPCC scenarios "clearly underestimate what we currently observe over the 
Greenland ice sheet" and should revisit their projections for the future.

"This melt event is a good alarm signal that we urgently need change our 
way of
living," said Fettweis. "It is more and more likely that the IPCC 
projections are too optimistic in the Arctic." Altogether, the Greenland 
ice sheet contains enough ice to raise global sea levels by about 24 feet.

  his isn't happening in isolation: This summer has been horrific all 
across the Arctic.

Unusual wildfires across Siberia, Scandinavia, Alaska, and Greenland 
have been raging all summer, and by one estimate released about 50 
million tons of carbon dioxide in the month of June alone -- equivalent 
to the annual emissions of Sweden. In Switzerland, some glaciers melted 
so rapidly during last week's heatwave that they sent swirling mudflows 
racing downhill. In the Arctic Ocean, sea ice is at a record-low extent 
as the melt season continues to lengthen. In Alaska, ecosystems are 
rapidly changing, especially in the Bering Sea region where this year's 
ice-free season began in February.

As daunting as this is, the latest science on Greenland also points to a 
window of hope: Greenland's meltdown is not yet irreversible. That 
self-sustaining process of melt-begetting-more-melt would kick in at 
around 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius of global warming. That means whether or 
not Greenland's ice sheet melts completely is almost entirely in human 
control: A full-scale mobilization ­-- including rapidly transforming 
the basis of the global economy toward a future where fossil fuels are 
no longer used -- would probably be enough to keep most of the remaining 
ice frozen, where it belongs.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/greenland-ice-sheet-melt-865803/



[more dangerous behavior]
*The White House Blocked My Report on Climate Change and National Security*
Politics intruded on science and intelligence. That's why I quit my job 
as an analyst for the State Department.
By Rod Schoonover
Dr. Schoonover was a senior analyst in the Bureau of Intelligence and 
Research at the State Department.
Ten years ago, I left my job as a tenured university professor to work 
as an intelligence analyst for the federal government, primarily in the 
State Department but with an intervening tour at the National 
Intelligence Council. My focus was on the impact of environmental and 
climate change on national security, a growing concern of the military 
and intelligence communities. It was important work. Two words that 
national security professionals abhor are uncertainty and surprise, and 
there's no question that the changing climate promises ample amounts of 
both.

I always appreciated the apolitical nature of the work. Our job in the 
State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research was to generate 
intelligence analysis buttressed by the best information available, 
without regard to political considerations. And although I was 
uncomfortable with some policies of the Trump administration, no one had 
ever tried to influence my work or conclusions.

That changed last month, when the White House blocked the submission of 
my bureau's written testimony on the national security implications of 
climate change to the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. 
The stated reason was that the scientific foundation of the analysis did 
not comport with the administration's position on climate change.

After an extended exchange between officials at the White House and the 
State Department, at the 11th hour I was permitted to appear at the 
hearing and give a five-minute  summary of the 11-page testimony. 
However, Congress was deprived of the full analysis, including the 
scientific baseline from which it was drawn. Perhaps most important, 
this written testimony on a critical topic was never entered into the 
official record.
- - -
Grappling with the implications of climate change and biodiversity loss, 
the two primary security concerns I'm focused on, is too important to me 
to wait around for a possible change on these issues in a future 
administration. We need to better understand and anticipate the 
challenges facing the nation and its partners. Whatever my next step 
might be, I believe these issues remain critical, and I will try to 
continue this work going forward.

Rod Schoonover was, until recently, a senior analyst in Bureau of 
Intelligence and Research at the State Department. He also worked as 
director of environment and natural resources at the National 
Intelligence Council and was a professor of chemistry and biochemistry 
at California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/30/opinion/trump-climate-change.html



[Oh, this was shown in Canada - not on US tv]
*The 1984 Climate Change Documentary*
Climate State
Published on Jul 30, 2019
During the late 1970s it became increasingly clear that the planet was 
warming, culminating in the landmark Charney report, published in 1979, 
The Charney Report: 40 years ago, scientists accurately predicted 
climate change https://phys.org/news/2019-07-charney...

This 1984 documentary outlines our understanding of global climate 
change at the time.

Topics discussed include, the scientific consensus, weather patterns, 
sea level rise, adaptation, climate actions, or the greenhouse effect.
There's weather, and then there's climate. Weather patterns come and go, 
but forecasting has become much more accurate through improved 
meteorological techniques. Climate change is harder to predict. But, as 
the CBC's Peter Kent shows in this 1984 documentary, it's happening. 
Carbon dioxide levels in the Earth's atmosphere have been steadily rising..
Program: The Journal / CBC
Broadcast Date: Jan. 24, 1984
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5cCmPZmHPM



[some lessons in chaos theory]
[atmosphere is a fluid system]
*Mathematicians Find Wrinkle in Famed Fluid Equations*
Two mathematicians prove that under certain extreme conditions, the 
Navier-Stokes equations output nonsense.
https://www.quantamagazine.org/mathematicians-find-wrinkle-in-famed-fluid-equations-20171221/
audio podcast 
https://d2r55xnwy6nx47.cloudfront.net/uploads/2018/06/Quanta-90-Wrinkle-in-Fluid-Equations.mp3
- - -
[Neuroscience]
*To Make Sense of the Present, Brains May Predict the Future*
A controversial theory suggests that perception, motor control, memory 
and other brain functions all depend on comparisons between ongoing 
actual experiences and the brain's modeled expectations.
https://www.quantamagazine.org/to-make-sense-of-the-present-brains-may-predict-the-future-20180710/
- -
*A World Without Clouds*
A state-of-the-art supercomputer simulation indicates that a feedback 
loop between global warming and cloud loss can push Earth's climate past 
a disastrous tipping point in as little as a century.
https://www.quantamagazine.org/cloud-loss-could-add-8-degrees-to-global-warming-20190225/#comments


*This Day in Climate History - August 2, 2006 - from D.R. Tucker*
August 2, 2006: Republican televangelist Pat Robertson calls for action 
on human-caused climate change, a position he would abandon several 
years later.
http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2006/08/03/6719/robertson-global-warming/
http://youtu.be/zxT0Nug1XqY
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