[TheClimate.Vote] August , 16 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/August 16, 2019/


[A little video report about a blue spot on the map]
*The North Atlantic's Mystery Spot*
YaleClimateConnections
Published on Aug 15, 2019
In NASA's annual summary of global temperature rise, a field of warming 
reds and yellows is broken by a persistent cold blue spot in the North 
Atlantic. Learn what explains that anomaly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nxt5_-SzAUQ



[Beckwith video]
*Accelerating Sea-Level Rise with Increase in Extreme Weather Frequency, 
Severity, and Duration*
Paul Beckwith
Published on Aug 15, 2019
I continue to expand upon my argument that global sea level will rise 7 
meters by 2070, as I originally discussed over 5 years ago in a video. 
An Arctic Blue-Ocean Event (BOE) that is very likely by 2022 will cause 
very large Arctic warming. With no sea-ice left to melt, we lose our 
Arctic "refrigerator" and all that previous "latent heat" will now be 
"sensible heat" jacking up temperatures. This will further expose 
Greenland to accelerated, catastrophic ice loss with rapid sea-level 
rise and abrupt increases in frequency, severity, duration of extreme 
weather events globally.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TtjcELcNH1E




[National Geographic report]
*Arctic permafrost is thawing fast. That affects us all.*
As the frozen ground warms much faster than expected, it's reshaping the 
landscape--and releasing carbon gases that fuel global warming.
- - -
Permafrost--ground that remains frozen year-round--is capped by a few 
feet of dirt and plant detritus. Called the active layer, this soil 
normally thaws each summer and refreezes in winter, protecting 
permafrost from rising heat above. But in the spring of 2018, a crew 
working for Nikita found that dirt near the surface around Cherskiy had 
not iced up at all during the long dark polar night. That was unheard 
of: January in Siberia is so brutally cold that human breath can freeze 
with a tinkling sound that the indigenous Yakuts call "the whisper of 
stars." The Soviets used to land heavy planes on the Kolyma. Soil 30 
inches down should have been frozen. Instead it was mush.

"Three years ago, the temperature in the ground above our permafrost was 
minus 3 degrees Celsius [27 degrees Fahrenheit]," Sergey Zimov said. 
"Then it was minus 2. Then it was minus one. This year, the temperature 
was plus 2 degrees."...

On one level that's not surprising. Earth's five warmest years since the 
late 19th century have come since 2014, and the Arctic is warming more 
than twice as fast as the rest of the planet, as it loses the sea ice 
that helps chill it. In 2017 tundra in Greenland faced its worst known 
wildfire. Days before we landed in Siberia, thermometers in Lakselv, 
Norway, 240 miles above the Arctic Circle, recorded a blistering 32 
degrees Celsius, or 90 degrees Fahrenheit. Arctic reindeer hid in road 
tunnels for relief.

Permafrost temperatures globally have been rising for half a century. On 
Alaska's North Slope, they spiked 11 degrees Fahrenheit in 30 years. 
Localized thawing of permafrost, especially in villages where 
development disturbs the surface and allows heat to penetrate, has 
eroded shorelines, undermined roads and schools, cracked pipelines, and 
collapsed ice cellars where Arctic hunters store walrus meat and bowhead 
whale blubber. Warm summers are already warping life for Arctic residents.

What the Zimovs were documenting in 2018, though, was something 
different, with implications beyond the Arctic: a wintertime thaw. The 
culprit, paradoxically, was heavy snow. Siberia is dry, but for several 
winters before 2018, thick snow had smothered the region. The snow acted 
like a blanket, trapping summer heat in the soil. At a research site 11 
miles from Cherskiy, Mathias Goeckede of Germany's Max Planck Institute 
for Biogeochemistry found that snow depth had doubled in five years. By 
April 2018 temperatures in the active layer had risen 10 degrees 
Fahrenheit...
- -
Globally, permafrost holds up to 1,600 gigatons of carbon, nearly twice 
what's in the atmosphere. No one expects all or even most of that to 
thaw. Until recently, researchers presumed permafrost would lose at most 
10 percent of its carbon. Even that, it was thought, could take as much 
as 80 years.

But when the active layer stops freezing in winter, things speed up. The 
added warmth lets microbes chomp organic material in the soil--and emit 
carbon dioxide or methane--year-round, instead of for just a few short 
months each summer. And the winter warmth spreads down into the 
permafrost itself, thawing it faster...
- -- 
The park is the ultimate test of Sergey Zimov's hypothesis--and, he 
hopes, a hedge against future climate change. Grasslands, especially 
when snow covered, reflect more sunlight than does dark forest. Grazing 
animals tamp down deep snow, allowing heat to escape the soil. Both 
things cool the land. If wildlife could restore grasslands, it would 
slow permafrost thaw and thus climate change. To make a real difference, 
though, you'd need to unleash thousands of zoos' worth of animals across 
millions of acres of the Arctic.

The Zimovs say the evidence from their 36,000-acre park is promising. 
Even with only about a hundred animals, the park's grasslands stay 
substantially cooler than the ground in the surrounding area.

The gap between the Zimovs' ambitions and the reality of the park is 
unquestionably large. During a tour one afternoon, Orlinsky and I hiked 
soggy grasses to a stretch of marsh to watch the horses. A lone bison 
hid in the distance. Nikita loaded us onto an eight-wheel mini-tank and 
took us crashing through the willows. After a steep climb we plowed over 
some skinny larches. This is why he needs giant herbivores, Nikita said: 
"At the moment I don't have any animals which can kill those trees." He 
spends a lot of time raising funds, most recently in California, 
hobnobbing with the likes of former Governor Jerry Brown, just to keep 
this proof of concept going.

The concept has its critics. Some scientists dispute the Zimovs' 
estimates of how many large animals were roaming around Siberia in the 
Pleistocene, or insist that their theory of ecological change, both past 
and present, is too simplistic. Above all, most criticism seems leveled 
at the Zimovs' audacity. Max Holmes of Woods Hole, who knows them well, 
sees a spark of genius in their work. The Zimovs are "at the fringe," 
Holmes said, "but that's often where big ideas and big changes originate."

Outside Pleistocene Park, the modern world has responded to the warming 
Arctic with complacency. We've spent decades ignoring the evidence of 
climate change and hoping that things won't get too bad. We count on 
technological advances that seem always just out of reach. And we do 
this in spite of the fact that climate scientists--permafrost experts in 
particular--say all signs point to the need for urgent and even 
audacious action.

The Zimovs are different: They've spent their lives battling an 
unforgiving landscape that rewards bullheadedness. Is trying to save 
permafrost by restoring the Arctic steppe, they ask, really so much 
crazier than counting on humans to quickly retool the world's energy 
system? Maybe we need a little craziness.

"Fighting climate change needs multiple actions from multiple different 
fronts," Nikita said. Only if we combine them all can we make the future 
"not entirely miserable."
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/arctic-permafrost-is-thawing-it-could-speed-up-climate-change-feature/



[Tides flow]
*World's most powerful tidal turbine to be built in Scotland*
Orbital Marine Power has awarded the multi-million-pound manufacturing 
contract for its 'O2' tidal stream turbine to TEXO Group, which will 
build the technology at its quayside facilities in Dundee
https://www.energylivenews.com/2019/08/15/worlds-most-powerful-tidal-turbine-to-be-built-in-scotland/


[PBS video]
*New analysis finds parts of the U.S. have already warmed close to 
critical 2-degree level*
Aug 14, 2019
For years, scientists have warned that we need to stop the planet from 
warming an additional two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels to 
avoid catastrophic problems. But a new analysis by The Washington Post 
finds many major areas across the U.S. have already reached that mark. 
The Post's Chris Mooney joins Amna Nawaz to discuss why some parts of 
the country are affected more than others...
- - -
Yes. So, one of the most striking patterns is the northern border of the 
country, from roughly Montana, all the way to Maine is, you know, 
repeatedly high levels of warming compared to what's below it. And if 
you were to look at Canada, you would see that continuing.

So, it's something about northern land areas are warming faster. We 
think this has something to do, probably, with the winter season and 
with snow melting faster than bare grounds exposed, and absorbing more 
solar radiation. This is a process that scientists think will play out 
on climate change. And given what we're seeing this pattern having to do 
with the north, we suspect that's what it is. There are some other hot 
spots as well but that's one of the biggest patterns...
more at:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/new-analysis-finds-parts-of-the-u-s-have-already-warmed-close-to-critical-2-degree-level



[report and opinion in CounterPunch]
*Sea Level Rise!*
AUGUST 13, 2019
by ROBERT HUNZIKER
Sea level has been stable, at current levels, throughout recorded 
history for 5,000 years. That's about to change. Still, it's very 
difficult for people to imagine a change in sea level after 5,000 years 
of rock solid stability.

Nevertheless, assuming sea levels do rise markedly, one of the biggest 
questions of the century is whether the world is prepared for sea level 
rise?

As a guess, the answer is: No, not even close.

Well, they better start making plans because there's no stopping at 410 
ppm CO2 and +1C post-industrial temperature, sea level rise is locked 
and loaded. It's only a matter of when how much.

A recent scientific forum offers insight. In February 2019, John 
Englander, oceanographer and world-renown sea level expert, spoke at The 
Royal Institution, London, which is affectionately called "the home of 
science." It's one of the world's most prestigious and long-standing 
institutions.

The Royal Institution has promoted scientific breakthroughs and new 
theories for 220 years. In 1859, Prof. John Tyndall spoke at the same 
spot and same desk where John Englander stood to deliver his speech. 
Tyndall was one of the first scientists to theorize the impact of 
greenhouse gases (GHG) on climate change.

One hundred-sixty-years later, John Englander spoke about the 
consequences of Tyndall's observations, the onset of sea level rise: "We 
really can't wait for the tragedy to evolve to deal with it." 
Unfortunately, "We tend to make big changes and expensive projects when 
tragedy has happened… But, with this one, we really can't wait for the 
tragedy to unfold to begin to deal with it. And, therein lies a 
particular challenge for all of us."

Accordingly, sea level rise should be the most important consideration 
for thousands of coastal communities around the world. And, not only 
that, but surprise, surprise! Sea level rise is a regular, normal 
feature in Earth's climate history of the past 400,000 years. In fact, 
major instances of sea level rise happened four times during that time.

The four-glacial/interglacial periods of the past 400,000 years happened 
at the rate of one per 100,000 years with four Down (cold) Cycles each 
lasting 80,000 years and four Up (warm) Cycles each lasting 20,000 years.

The last Down (cold) Cycle ended 22,000 years ago. Thus, and therefore, 
today is the tail end of the last Up (warm) Cycle and a new Down (cold) 
Cycle should already be here, but, no, human greenhouse gases (GHG) like 
CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide have altered the normal rhythms of the 
planet, stopped dead in its tracks, preventing another long overdue Down 
(cold) Cycle.

Englander claims there won't be another Down (cold) Cycle as long as 
people exist on the planet. People are "heat machines." They have 
changed the planet's chemistry and physics and thus, artificially 
extended the Up (warm-to-hot-to-hotter) Cycle.

The paleoclimate record shows temperatures over the past 400,000 yrs 
ranged plus/minus 5C and CO2 ranged 180 ppm to 280 ppm.

Today's CO2 at 410 ppm literally smashes the old record of 280 ppm that 
stood for 400,000 years. Hmm.

Over those 400,000 years, 5C temperature change brought 120 meter (394 
feet) sea level changes in its wake. Looked at another way, sea level 
rise equals 20 meters (60 feet) per 1C temperature increase. Uh-oh! 
Earth's already heated that much. Does this mean 20 meters (60 feet) of 
sea level rise is already "baked in the cake," ready to burst forward?

Well, yes, but not exactly, the key ingredient is when it happens 
because timing is tricky. In days of yesteryear when 280 ppm was top 
end, CO2 grew at a rate 0.1 to 0.3 ppm/annum, so sea level rise took 
centuries as temperatures slowly increased, whereas today, CO2 at 410 
ppm and growing 3.0 ppm/annum (10xs the paleoclimate rates) is like a 
turbo-charged Indy race car on a geological track, and it has powered 
ahead, thus leaving sea level rise choking on fumes. But, it'll catch 
up…count on it. Thus, there's a lag time between GHGs today and 
temperature rise and sea level rise tomorrow.

Think of Earth, the biosphere, as a big oven, similar to the one at 
home, when turned to 450F, the home oven takes several minutes to crank 
up to 450F. It's not instantaneous. Similarly, the biosphere oven 
receives tons and tons of greenhouse heat-trapping gases, but its 
version of "several minutes" is "several years-to-decades" to achieve 
maximum heat. In other words, your 2010 auto exhaust generated today's 
global warming.

It's all about "timing." After all, when warming cycles happen, sea 
level rise usually takes centuries and centuries to increase. For 
example, 14,000 years ago an increase in temperatures took seas up 65 
feet over 400 years. Accordingly, that's 1.5 feet per decade, which 
calculation, in part, led John Englander to make the assumption that 
today's sea level rise will be 1-2-3 feet by mid 21st century. In turn, 
that would be a real shocker, especially to the Intergovernmental Panel 
on Climate Change (IPCC) with its median expectation of one-half a meter 
or 1.6 feet by 2100.

The IPCC's absolute "worst-case" guesstimate is 32 inches by 2100, but a 
footnote hidden in fine print says the IPCC does not factor Antarctica 
into their calculations. Ahem! Antarctica is not included! Mercy!

Englander's key points:

1. Sea level never rises smoothly. It's not a straight line or a curved 
line. There are inflection points when it suddenly rises. So far, that 
has not been experienced. In fact, over the past 100 years, temps are up 
1C and sea level rise is only up 4 inches.

2. Sea level has been stable, at current levels, throughout human 
recorded history for 5,000+ years.

3. Thus, it's very difficult for people to imagine a change in sea 
level, especially after 5,000 years of rock solid stability.

Today's big problem: Sea levels are now (today) at an early stage of 
exponential growth, meaning, the rate of growth is doubling, 
cycle-by-cycle, for the first time in known history. Based upon 
satellite recordings since 1993: sea level rise 1993-98 +1.5MM/yr. 
1998-2011 +3.2MM/yr. 2011-2018 5.0MM/yr. That's nearly double every 
cycle, which is an exponential function, and it's trouble, very-very big 
trouble.

The exponential: "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our 
inability to understand the exponential function." (Albert Allen 
Bartlett, 1923-2013 /Harvard PhD, Professor Emeritus, Nuclear Physics, 
University of Colorado at Boulder)

An exponential, to wit: How long does it take to fill Yankee Stadium 
with water, assuming 1 drop of water is added, then 2 drops, then 4 
drops, then 8 drops, then 16 drops, on and on, doubling the number of 
drops every minute? Answer: 47 minutes.

Exponential is fast, real fast, and sea level rise is now on an 
exponential pathway for the first time ever!!! That's a very big pill to 
swallow! But still, timing is everything, which nobody knows for certain.

Meantime, the sources of sea level rise are readily identifiable as 
Greenland 24 feet and Antarctica 186 feet and another 3 feet in glaciers 
found in Alps and around the world in mountainous terrain.

Greenland is surprisingly big. Englander has been there 6 times; it's 
1,600 miles north to south and 1,000 miles east to west. It's the 
biggest island in world with ice 2 miles thick that covers 80% of the 
island.

Antarctica is even more enormous at 7xs Greenland. There are four parts 
to Antarctica:

    1. East Antarctica - relatively solid but starting to rumble - it's
    the final frontier of global warming

    2. West Antarctica - glaciers go under water here and a high risk zone

    3. Antarctica Peninsula- melting the fastest and closest to South
    America

    4. Ice Shelves - thick ice slabs resting on the water, serving as
    backstops to glaciers- increasingly breaking off in ever-bigger
    chunks, e.g., Antarctica's Iceberg B-15 at 183 miles long by 23
    miles wide.

With mounting concerns expressed by scientists, six Antarctic glaciers 
are under special watch: Pine Island Glacier - a huge cavity discovered 
only recently - Thwaites Glacier-a new disturbing discovery found only 
recently, Haynes Glacier, Pope Glacier, Smith Glacier, and Kohler 
Glacier. All of these glaciers are located around the Amundsen Sea. 
Combined, these six have 10 feet of sea level locked up inside. Nobody 
knows when, but the entire region is extremely vulnerable, already 
showing the early signals of "losing it."

Meanwhile, Englander's guesstimate: By mid century, we could get a 
couple of feet of sea level rise. But keep in mind it doesn't happen all 
at once. It's the buildup that destroys, and that is now, unfortunately, 
on an exponential pathway. In other words, it's an extremely dicey 
affair that could be gradual, or it could be rapid, awful, and nasty.

Englander's conclusion: Sea level rise is unstoppable.

Interestingly, ever since the 1990s, mainstream science has been at 
least 30 years late with sea level projections, consistently way too 
low, but then again, exponential growth throws off the best of 'em. It's 
a wild card.

According to Englander, there are three key takeaways from his speech:

1. Reduce emissions, immediately - it's most important to slow warming 
as much as possible as early as possible.

2. Regardless, sea level rise will still be catastrophic on a global 
scale. Even with 100% renewable energy tomorrow, sea level rise will 
happen. As an aside, oceans (2/3rds of the planet) absorbed 85% of 
planetary heat and emit CO2 when too warm/hot.

3. The sooner "engineering for the future" happens, the easier to adapt.

According to Englander, society has 20-30 years to redesign cities to 
prepare for the inevitable as thousands of coastal communities must move 
or adapt to sea level rise. As an aside, and in fairness to contrary 
opinion, there are scientists that disagree with the timeline of 20-30 
years to do something.

The risk factor is heightened by the fact that past sea level rises had 
saw-toothed patterns with inflection points of rapid increase along the 
way, making it nearly impossible to predict timing.

As such, and here's the big oops-a-daisy, with exponentials kicking into 
gear, it's truly a gamblers' world.
According to John Englander, there are no options. It must be dealt 
with. Come hell or high water, sea level rise is forthcoming.
https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/08/13/sea-level-rise/


*This Day in Climate History - August 16, 2013 - from D.R. Tucker*
August 16, 2013: The climate documentary "The Politics of Power" airs 
for the first, last and only time on MSNBC.

    Despite our best efforts at the time to receive an explanation from
    MSNBC or Chris Hayes or the producers of his nightly prime-time
    show, All In (which produced and presented the doc during their
    normal hour), as to why the special had not been posted online,
    several weeks went by and we received no response.

    The unexplained online "black out" of Politics of Power led Tucker
    to wonder, by August 29th, if "certain entities" (such as ExxonMobil
    and other fossil fuel industry corporations, global warming deniers
    and other similarly big advertisers on MSNBC) "might not be happy
    with the prospect of the video being widely available and, who
    knows, maybe even going viral."

    Well, we've still received no direct response to our queries from
    Hayes or anyone at MSNBC as to the whereabouts of the "missing"
    documentary, or the explanation for it. But while browsing some
    video clips recently at the MSNBC website, I just happened to come
    across this graphic amongst a list of video clips available on the
    site...

http://www.bradblog.com/?p=10284
/-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------/

/Archive of Daily Global Warming News 
<https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote/2017-October/date.html> 
/
https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote

/To receive daily mailings - click to Subscribe 
<mailto:subscribe at theClimate.Vote?subject=Click%20SEND%20to%20process%20your%20request> 
to news digest./

*** Privacy and Security:*This is a text-only mailing that carries no 
images which may originate from remote servers. Text-only messages 
provide greater privacy to the receiver and sender.
By regulation, the .VOTE top-level domain must be used for democratic 
and election purposes and cannot be used for commercial purposes.
To subscribe, email: contact at theclimate.vote 
<mailto:contact at theclimate.vote> with subject subscribe, To Unsubscribe, 
subject: unsubscribe
Also you may subscribe/unsubscribe at 
https://pairlist10.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/theclimate.vote
Links and headlines assembled and curated by Richard Pauli for 
http://TheClimate.Vote <http://TheClimate.Vote/> delivering succinct 
information for citizens and responsible governments of all levels. List 
membership is confidential and records are scrupulously restricted to 
this mailing list.