[TheClimate.Vote] August 28, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest.

Wed Aug 28 09:43:35 EDT 2019

/August 28, 2019/

[expand boundary of change]*
**How to Rebound After a Disaster: Move, Don't Rebuild, Research Suggests*
- - -
But a paper published Thursday in the journal Science makes a case that, 
sometimes, retreating from nature instead of fighting it can actually 
open up new opportunities for communities.

"There's a definite rhetoric of, 'We're going to build it back better. 
We're going to win. We're going to beat this. Something technological is 
going to come and it's going to save us,'" said A.R. Siders, an 
assistant professor with the disaster research center at the University 
of Delaware and lead author of the paper.

"It's like, let's step back and think for a minute," she said. "You're 
in a fight with the ocean. You're fighting to hold the ocean in place. 
Maybe that's not the battle we want to pick."...
- - -
The article not only stresses the viability of retreat but challenges 
the idea that retreat is based exclusively on geographical factors like 
elevation and proximity to the coast. "Retreat, in practice, depends at 
least as much on sort of social, economic, cultural geography," Dr. 
Koslov said.

"It's not that everywhere should retreat," Dr. Siders said. "It's that 
retreat should be an option. It should be a real viable option on the 
table that some places will need to use."
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/22/climate/sea-level-managed-retreat.html

[runaway danger]
*Tipping Points*
James Hansen has addressed the enormous danger of tipping points in one 
of his lectures (2009).
"Here are several climate tipping points of special concern. Tipping 
points are "non-linear" phenomena, which means that they can reach a 
point at which rapid catastrophic change occurs.
It is inherently difficult to determine the time at which non-linear 
collapse will occur, even in cases where such rapid change is certain.
Ice sheet disintegration The mechanism seems to be most important for 
disintegration of the great ice sheets that cover Antarctica and 
Greenland begins with ocean warming. Ocean warming leads to melting of 
ice shelves, which are tongues of ice that stretch out into the ocean. 
The ice shelves buttress the ice sheets, so when ice shelves disappear 
the more mobile parts of the ice sheet, the ice streams, can surge into 
the ocean - thus removal of the ice shelves is somewhat akin to taking 
the cork out of a bottle - it allows the material behind to flow 
rapidly. We know from Earth's history that once ice sheet disintegration 
is well underway, sea level can rise by several meters per century.
Species extermination is also a non-linear problem. Today we are placing 
many species under multiple stresses, but one stress that is growing 
rapidly is the shifting of climate zones due to global warming...Because 
of interdependencies of species, the loss of key species can cause 
entire ecosystems to collapse.
Arctic methane. Methane is an especially powerful greenhouse gas. There 
are large amounts of methane presently locked up, frozen, in high 
latitude tundra and, especially, in ocean sediments on continental 
shelves. We know from Earth's history that this frozen methane can be 
released suddenly by sufficient warming - thus this methane has the 
potential to greatly amplify human made global warming, if that warming 
reaches a level, a tipping point, such that large volumes of frozen 
methane begin to melt."
The research on tipping points is directed not at compelling governments 
to curb emissions on an emergency basis, but to look for early warning 
indicators of tipping points. It is intuitive that there won't be early 
warnings and even if there jt would far to late to stop or slow the 
warming.
A 2010 study on tipping points: Early warning and wishful thinking finds 
that they have very limited predictability. The worst tipping point 
would be an abrupt large increase in global temperature. This paper 
takes the ice core abrupt warming events and finds no early warning 
indicators.

Like James Hansen, Andrew Gliskson finds from the ice core distant past 
that the planet tends to warm abruptly and we have added too much GHG 
heat to the system for any security of avoiding tipping points. Trends 
and tipping point in the climate system: portents for the 21st century. 
Past and current trends in the atmosphere/ocean system Andrew Glikson 
Earth and Palaeoclimate science Australian National University.

The Australia government office for science has background paper 
Dangerous Climate Change and Tipping Points includes a list of 
potential tipping points:

-rapid melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet
-collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
-abrupt retreat of Arctic summer sea-ice
-shut-down of the over-turning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean -
also known as the 'Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation'
(AMOC) or the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation
-dieback of the Amazon rainforest
-rapid release of methane from permafrost or 'methane hydrates'.
Methane hydrates are structures consisting of methane locked into a
water-ice lattice. They are sometimes referred to as 'methane
clathrates'. They occur in deep ocean sediments and under permafrost
(frozen ground)
-sudden changes to marine ecosystems resulting from ocean acidification

What has been little attention is the possibility of self reinforcing 
+ve feedbacks or multiple cascading catastrophes reaching planetary 
tipping levels for a megacatastrophe. A Harvard discussion paper  
Responding to Threats of Climate Change Mega- Catastrophes does consider 
and how to respond to such a risk. This addresses the important question 
of rapid abatement and geo-engineering.
https://www.climateemergencyinstitute.com/tipping_pts.html
- - -
[video cartoon defines tipping points - 4 mins]
*Is our climate headed for a mathematical tipping point? - Victor J. Donnay*
TED-Ed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoYSToa2Yfw

[Beckwith video discusses impact of Amazon rainforest]
*Amazon Rainforest as a Significant but Highly Vulnerable Global Climate 
Tipping Element*
Paul Beckwith
Published on Aug 27, 2019
The Amazon Rainforest is one of the very significant yet vulnerable 
tipping elements in the overall climate system. Willful human 
destruction of the rainforest by slash-and-burn techniques (trees are 
toppled by chainsaw or tractors with chains, allowed to dry out, and are 
then torched) is behind 99% of the present fires, according to some 
accounts. In this first of a series of 5 videos, I wade through the 
science and attempt to determine the most acc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDblhtPuyGk
- - -
[followup video]
*Amazon Rainforest: Crunching the Numbers*
Paul Beckwith
Published on Aug 27, 2019
As far as I can tell in my analysis, the most accurate numbers on carbon 
sink and oxygen production sizes for the Amazon Rainforest in a global 
photosynthesis context are in a blog by ecologist Yadvinder Malhi, which 
I discuss in detail within this series of 5 videos (this one is 3/5). If 
the entire Amazon Rainforest was to collapse (burn) then about 90 Pg of 
carbon would be released to the atmosphere (adding about 40 ppm, an 
increase of almost 10% of our present 415 ppm), using up 240 Pg of 
oxygen (a very small 0.02% of the oxygen level in the atmosphere).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZPGLRKJHn8
- - -
[Third video on the importance of the Amazon Rainforest]
*Vital Significance of Amazon Rainforest as Carbon Sink*
Paul Beckwith
Published on Aug 27, 2019
How significant, on a global scale, is the Amazon Rainforest? Best I can 
tell, correct annual numbers are: Tropical rainforests account for 34% 
of land-based global photosynthesis; Amazon Rainforest is almost half 
that, namely 16%. Total oxygen produced by land-based photosynthesis is 
330 Pg, thus Amazon is 54 Pg. Ocean phytoplankton oxygen production is 
240 Pg. Total global photosynthesis is 330 + 240 = 570 Pg of oxygen (58% 
land, 42% ocean). Amazon produces 54/570=9.5% of total global oxygen; 
with carbon sink being 9.5% of global plant total sink.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=raQdEwJIMaM
- - -
[Summary of Ramifications]
*Playing with Amazon Fire will get us all Burned*
Paul Beckwith
Published on Aug 27, 2019
According to the Wiki on Amazon Rainforest: "In 2018 about 17% of the 
Amazon Rainforest was already destroyed. Research suggests that upon 
reaching about 20-25% (hence 3-8% more), the tipping point to flip it 
into non-forest ecosystems - degraded savannah - (in eastern, southern 
and central Amazonia) will be reached." Given 3 recent century scale 
droughts in the Amazon Rainforest in 2005, 2010, and 2015-2016, and 
slash-and-burn human practices accelerating again, we are quite 
literally playing with fire in a game we cannot win.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCgoLXZGDOw
- - -
[another 15 minute rant]
*We Need to Plant Many New Amazon Equivalents, Not Destroy Our Existing One*
Paul Beckwith
Published on Aug 27, 2019
If the entire Amazon burned down, a release of 90 Pg of carbon to the 
atmosphere, equivalent to a 40 ppm rise in atmospheric CO2, was 
mentioned in the previous video description based on Yadvinder Malhi 
blog. By the same token, if people on Earth got their act together and 
planted a new Amazon (about 390 billion trees, estimated from Amazon 
Wikipedia) this would drawdown about 40 ppm (90 Pg) or 10% of 
atmospheric concentration. At present, atmospheric CO2 rises 2-3 
ppm/year, so 40 ppm is only between13-20 years worth of global emissions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZS4kE1xv_E
- - -
[A great data visualization Earth.Nullschool.net]
Data display
*Data | Wind + Carbon Monoxide Conc. @ Surface*
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/chem/surface/level/overlay=cosc/orthographic=-64.05,-9.50,486
- - -
[Source material]
*Rainforests News *
https://news.mongabay.com/list/rainforests/

[no escape]
*Heat Deaths Jump in Southwest United States, Puzzling Officials*
WASHINGTON -- Heat-related deaths have increased sharply since 2014 in 
Nevada and Arizona, raising concerns that the hottest parts of the 
country are struggling to protect their most vulnerable residents from 
global warming.

In Arizona, the annual number of deaths attributed to heat exposure more 
than tripled, from 76 deaths in 2014 to 235 in 2017, according to 
figures obtained from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and 
Prevention. Heat-related deaths in Nevada rose almost fivefold during 
the same period, from 29 to 139...
- - -
...In a paper published this year, Dr. Bandala examined the ages of all 
437 people who were determined to have died from heat-related causes in 
Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, between 2007 and 2016. He found 
that 76 percent of those who had died were older than 50.

"I would put my money on the increase of retirees coming to live in town 
in the last eight to 10 years," Dr. Bandala said, but added that more 
demographic information is still needed.

Others worried that the problem might be worse than it seems. 
"Heat-related deaths are just very underreported," said Dr. Basu, the 
California official, because coroners often mark a death as heat-related 
only if no other cause of death is suspected. But that can miss cases in 
which heat contributed to a death from another cause.

What's clear so far is that governments need to do a better job 
protecting people from extreme heat before conditions get worse. "Our 
strategies are insufficient for the current climate," Dr. Hondula said, 
"let alone what might be coming."
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/26/climate/heat-deaths-southwest.html

[Serious Humor - Trump trolled for a few minutes in video]
*Trump trolled by a parliamentarian from Denmark ..pure gold*
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okkDbagWa7I

*This Day in Climate History - August 28, 2014 - from D.R. Tucker*
August 28, 2014: The New York Times reports:

"At a private conclave with the billionaire Koch brothers' political
apparatus this year, Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the
Republican leader, laid out a confrontational agenda for a
Republican-controlled Senate aimed at dismantling President Obama's
legislative successes through the federal budget.

"In an audio recording leaked to The Undercurrent, a liberal-leaning
YouTube channel, and initially reported by the magazine The Nation,
Mr. McConnell told the mid-June gathering in Dana Point, Calif.,
that if the Republicans gained control of the Senate and retained
control of the House in November, Congress could use the budget
process to force the president to roll back his priorities.

"'In the House and Senate, we own the budget,' he said, explaining
that the initial blueprint on taxes and spending does not require
the president's signature.So what does that mean? That means that we
can pass the spending bill. And I assure you that in the spending
bill, we will be pushing back against this bureaucracy by doing
what's called placing riders in the bill. No money can be spent to
do this or to do that. We're going to go after them on health care,
on financial services, on the Environmental Protection Agency,
across the board. All across the federal government, we're going to
go after it.'

"The channel released audio of three other Republicans in tough
Senate races -- Representative Tom Cotton of Arkansas,
Representative Cory Gardner of Colorado and Joni Ernst, a state
senator in Iowa -- all of whom praised Charles G. and David H. Koch
and the millions of dollars they have provided to help Republican
candidates."

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/28/us/politics/on-tape-mcconnell-envisions-using-budget-to-undo-obama-initiatives.html
http://www.msnbc.com/watch/mitch-mcconnell-s-promise-to-the-koch-brothers-322691139574
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