[TheClimate.Vote] December 1, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/*December 1, 2019*/

[Top US leadership]
*Pelosi heading to Madrid for UN climate change convention*
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/472466-pelosi-heading-to-madrid-for-un-climate-change-convention



[Release the Star Power]
*John Kerry Launches Star-Studded Climate Coalition*
By Lisa Friedman - Nov. 30, 2019

WASHINGTON -- John Kerry, the former senator and secretary of state, has 
formed a new bipartisan coalition of world leaders, military brass and 
Hollywood celebrities to push for public action to combat climate change.

The name, World War Zero, is supposed to evoke both the national 
security threat posed by the earth's warming and the type of wartime 
mobilization that Mr. Kerry argued would be needed to stop the rise in 
carbon emissions before 2050. The star-studded group is supposed to win 
over those skeptical of the policies that would be needed to accomplish 
that.

Former presidents Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter are part of the effort. 
Moderate Republican lawmakers like Arnold Schwarzenegger, the former 
governor of California, and John Kasich, the former governor of Ohio, 
are on the list. Stars like Leonardo DiCaprio, Sting and Ashton Kutcher 
round out the roster of more than 60 founding members. Their goal is to 
hold more than 10 million "climate conversations" in the coming year 
with Americans across the political spectrum. With a starting budget of 
$500,000, Mr. Kerry said, he and other coalition members intend to hold 
town meetings across the country starting in January. Members will head 
to battleground states key to the 2020 election, but also to military 
bases where climate discussions are rare and to economically depressed 
areas that members say could benefit from clean energy jobs...
- - -
The launch of the new group on Sunday comes as diplomats gather in 
Madrid on Monday for global climate negotiations aimed at strengthening 
the 2015 Paris Agreement, from which President Trump has vowed to 
withdraw next year. Earlier this week the United Nations found that the 
world's richest countries, responsible for emitting more than 
three-fourths of planet-warming pollution, are not doing enough to keep 
Earth's temperature from rising to dangerously high levels. Net carbon 
emissions from the two largest polluters, the United States and China, 
are expanding....
- - -
Mr. Kerry said while individual members might personally promote 
specific climate policy proposals, like a tax on carbon dioxide 
pollution, or the Green New Deal, the coalition is not aimed at 
promoting any particular plan.

"We're not going to be divided going down a rabbit hole for one plan or 
another," he said.

The Green New Deal envisions addressing climate change and income 
inequality in tandem, with a federal job guarantee and federal mandates 
like ensuring the country's power and electricity systems run entirely 
on renewable energy by 2030. The Sunrise Movement, a climate activist 
group that promotes the Green New Deal, has been critical of global 
warming efforts that do not embrace that vision, but its leaders held 
their fire on Mr. Kerry's group.

Some members of Mr. Kerry's coalition hold positions that many in the 
environmental movement oppose, like support for natural gas as a 
transition fuel from coal.

Combustion of natural gas emits about half as much carbon dioxide as 
coal and 30 percent less than oil, and its expansion is widely credited 
for helping the United States curb emissions in the past decade. It also 
produces methane, a fast-acting greenhouse gas with enormous short-term 
impacts on the climate.

United Nations scientists have said the world needs to cut carbon 
emissions in half by 2030, and must eliminate them by 2050 to limit 
warming to relatively safe levels. To do that, the United States would 
need to phase out all fossil fuels, including gas, as rapidly as possible...
- - -
Katie Eder, founder of The Future Coalition, a network for youth-led 
organizations that helped organize climate strikes around the country in 
September, supports the Green New Deal and is a member of Mr. Kerry's 
coalition. She said people who cared about climate change needed to look 
past their differences.

"While I may be disagreeing with some of the things that other folks 
involved in World War Zero believe, that doesn't mean we can't work 
together," she said. "Collaboration is our key to survival."
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/30/climate/john-kerry-climate-change.html



[another 5 explanations for denial]
*The five corrupt pillars of climate change denial*
November 28, 2019
Author Mark Maslin - Professor of Earth System Science, UCL
Mark Maslin is a Founding Director of Rezatec Ltd, Director of The 
London NERC Doctoral Training Partnership and a member of Cheltenham 
Science Festival Advisory Committee.

The fossil fuel industry, political lobbyists, media moguls and 
individuals have spent the past 30 years sowing doubt about the reality 
of climate change - where none exists. The latest estimate is that the 
world's five largest publicly-owned oil and gas companies spend about 
US$200 million a year on lobbying to control, delay or block binding 
climate policy.

Their hold on the public seems to be waning. Two recent polls suggested 
over 75% of Americans think humans are causing climate change. School 
climate strikes, Extinction Rebellion protests, national governments 
declaring a climate emergency, improved media coverage of climate change 
and an increasing number of extreme weather events have all contributed 
to this shift. There also seems to be a renewed optimism that we can 
deal with the crisis.

But this means lobbying has changed, now employing more subtle and more 
vicious approaches - what has been termed as "climate sadism". It is 
used to mock young people going on climate protests and to ridicule 
Greta Thunberg, a 16-year-old young woman with Asperger's, who is simply 
telling the scientific truth.

At such a crossroads, it is important to be able to identify the 
different types of denial. The below taxonomy will help you spot the 
different ways that are being used to convince you to delay action on 
climate change.

*1. Science denial*
This is the type of denial we are all familiar with: that the science of 
climate change is not settled. Deniers suggest climate change is just 
part of the natural cycle. Or that climate models are unreliable and too 
sensitive to carbon dioxide.

Some even suggest that CO₂ is such a small part of the atmosphere it 
cannot have a large heating affect. Or that climate scientists are 
fixing the data to show the climate is changing (a global conspiracy 
that would take thousands of scientists in more than a 100 countries to 
pull off).

All these arguments are false and there is a clear consensus among 
scientists about the causes of climate change. The climate models that 
predict global temperature rises have remained very similar over the 
last 30 years despite the huge increase in complexity, showing it is a 
robust outcome of the science...

The shift in public opinion means that undermining the science will 
increasingly have little or no effect. So climate change deniers are 
switching to new tactics. One of Britain's leading deniers, Nigel 
Lawson, the former UK chancellor, now agrees that humans are causing 
climate change, despite having founded the sceptic Global Warming Policy 
Foundation in 2009.

It says it is "open-minded on the contested science of global warming, 
[but] is deeply concerned about the costs and other implications of many 
of the policies currently being advocated". In other words, climate 
change is now about the cost not the science.

*2. Economic denial*
The idea that climate change is too expensive to fix is a more subtle 
form of climate denial. Economists, however, suggest we could fix 
climate change now by spending 1% of world GDP. Perhaps even less if the 
cost savings from improved human health and expansion of the global 
green economy are taken into account. But if we don't act now, by 2050 
it could cost over 20% of world GDP.

We should also remember that in 2018 the world generated 
US$86,000,000,000,000 and every year this World GDP grows by 3.5%. So 
setting aside just 1% to deal with climate change would make little 
overall difference and would save the world a huge amount of money. What 
the climate change deniers also forget to tell you is that they are 
protecting a fossil fuel industry that receives US$5.2 trillion in 
annual subsidies - which includes subsidised supply costs, tax breaks 
and environmental costs. This amounts to 6% of world GDP.

The International Monetary Fund estimates that efficient fossil fuel 
pricing would lower global carbon emissions by 28%, fossil fuel air 
pollution deaths by 46%, and increase government revenue by 3.8% of the 
country's GDP.

*3. Humanitarian denial*
Climate change deniers also argue that climate change is good for us. 
They suggest longer, warmer summers in the temperate zone will make 
farming more productive. These gains, however, are often offset by the 
drier summers and increased frequency of heatwaves in those same areas. 
For example, the 2010 "Moscow" heatwave killed 11,000 people, devastated 
the Russian wheat harvest and increased global food prices.

More than 40% of the world's population also lives in the Tropics - 
where from both a human health prospective and an increase in 
desertification no one wants summer temperatures to rise.

Deniers also point out that plants need atmospheric carbon dioxide to 
grow so having more of it acts like a fertiliser. This is indeed true 
and the land biosphere has been absorbing about a quarter of our carbon 
dioxide pollution every year. Another quarter of our emissions is 
absorbed by the oceans. But losing massive areas of natural vegetation 
through deforestation and changes in land use completely nullifies this 
minor fertilisation effect.

Climate change deniers will tell you that more people die of the cold 
than heat, so warmer winters will be a good thing. This is deeply 
misleading. Vulnerable people die of the cold because of poor housing 
and not being able to afford to heat their homes. Society, not climate, 
kills them.

This argument is also factually incorrect. In the US, for example, 
heat-related deaths are four times higher than cold-related ones. This 
may even be an underestimate as many heat-related deaths are recorded by 
cause of death such as heart failure, stroke, or respiratory failure, 
all of which are exacerbated by excessive heat...

*4. Political denial*
Climate change deniers argue we cannot take action because other 
countries are not taking action. But not all countries are equally 
guilty of causing current climate change. For example, 25% of the 
human-produced CO₂ in the atmosphere is generated by the US, another 22% 
is produced by the EU. Africa produces just under 5%.

Given the historic legacy of greenhouse gas pollution, developed 
countries have an ethical responsibility to lead the way in cutting 
emissions. But ultimately, all countries need to act because if we want 
to minimise the effects of climate change then the world must go carbon 
zero by 2050.

Per capita annual carbon dioxide emissions and cumulative country 
emissions. Data from the Global Carbon Project. Nature. Data from the 
Global Carbon Project
Deniers will also tell you that there are problems to fix closer to home 
without bothering with global issues. But many of the solutions to 
climate change are win-win and will improve the lives of normal people. 
Switching to renewable energy and electric vehicles, for example, 
reduces air pollution, which improves people's overall health.

Developing a green economy provides economic benefits and creates jobs. 
Improving the environment and reforestation provides protection from 
extreme weather events and can in turn improve food and water security.

*5. Crisis denial*
The final piece of climate change denial is the argument that we should 
not rush into changing things, especially given the uncertainty raised 
by the other four areas of denial above. Deniers argue that climate 
change is not as bad as scientists make out. We will be much richer in 
the future and better able to fix climate change. They also play on our 
emotions as many of us don't like change and can feel we are living in 
the best of times - especially if we are richer or in power.

But similarly hollow arguments were used in the past to delay ending 
slavery, granting the vote to women, ending colonial rule, ending 
segregation, decriminalising homosexuality, bolstering worker's rights 
and environmental regulations, allowing same sex marriages and banning 
smoking.

The fundamental question is why are we allowing the people with the most 
privilege and power to convince us to delay saving our planet from 
climate change?
https://theconversation.com/the-five-corrupt-pillars-of-climate-change-denial-122893



[wondrous life]
*David Attenborough on Spiders, Mortality, and Nature's Resilience | The 
New Yorker*
Nov 21, 2019
The New Yorker
The celebrated naturalist discusses the resilience of nature and his 
optimistic outlook on mortality.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EntGr1PprW4



[Darn]
*Climate Tipping Points Are Closer Than We Think, Scientists Warn*
 From melting ice caps to dying forests and thawing permafrost, the risk 
of 'abrupt and irreversible changes' is much higher than thought just a 
few years ago.
BY BOB BERWYN, INSIDECLIMATE NEWS
NOV 27, 2019
Humans are playing Russian roulette with Earth's climate by ignoring the 
growing risk of tipping points that, if passed, could jolt the climate 
system into "a new, less habitable 'hothouse' climate state," scientists 
are warning ahead of the annual UN climate summit.

Research now shows that there is a higher risk that "abrupt and 
irreversible changes" to the climate system could be triggered at 
smaller global temperature increases than thought just a few years ago. 
There are also indictations that exceeding tipping points in one system, 
such as the loss of Arctic sea ice, can increase the risk of crossing 
tipping points in others, a group of top scientists wrote Wednesday in 
the scientific journal Nature.

"What we're talking about is a point of no return, when we might 
actually lose control of this system, and there is a significant risk 
that we're going to do this," said Will Steffen, a climate researcher 
with the Australian National University and co-author of the commentary. 
"It's not going to be the same conditions with just a bit more heat or a 
bit more rainfall. It's a cascading process that gets out of control."
The scientists focused on nine parts of the climate system susceptible 
to tipping points, some of them interconnected:

    *Arctic sea ice*, which is critical for reflecting the sun's energy
    back into space but is disappearing as the planet warms.
    The Greenland Ice Sheet, which could raise sea level 20 feet if it
    melts.
    *Boreal forests*, which would release more carbon dioxide (CO2) than
    they absorb if they die and decay or burn.
    *Permafrost*, which releases methane and other greenhouse gases as
    it thaws.
    The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, a key ocean
    current, which would shift global weather patterns if it slowed down
    or stopped.
    *The Amazon rainforest*, which could flip from a net absorber of
    greenhouse gases to a major emitter.
    *Warm-water corals*, which will die on a large scale as the ocean
    warms, affecting commercial and subsistence fisheries.
    *The West Antarctic Ice Sheet*, which would raise sea level by at
    least 10 feet if it melted entirely and is already threatened by
    warming from above and below.
    Parts of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that would also raise sea
    level significantly if they melted...

- - -
The new Nature article reinforces other recent similar warnings, said 
climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe, director of the Texas Tech 
University Climate Science Center. That includes a chapter in the latest 
U.S. National Climate Assessment on "potential surprises" in the climate 
system, "The scariest thing that you'll ever read that's not by Stephen 
King," Hayhoe said.

It explores climate impacts and feedback systems that we don't fully 
understand, she said, and "that may be far more worrisome than what we 
do know."
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27112019/climate-tipping-points-permafrost-forests-ice-antarctica-greenland-amazon-nature 



*
****This Day in Climate History - December 1, 1987 - from D.R. Tucker*
During a Democratic presidential debate on NBC, Rep. Richard Gephardt 
states that the US must work with the Soviet Union on addressing 
international environmental issues such as the ozone layer and 
greenhouse gas emissions, noting, “The problem we’ve had with these 
issues is not that we don’t know what to talk about; the problem we’ve 
had is that America hasn’t been a leader.”

http://www.c-span.org/video/?20-1/Presidential  (25:10—26:03)

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