[TheClimate.Vote] December 12, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/*December 12, 2019*/

[restricting language]
*Major emitters accused of blocking progress at UN talks*
Matt McGrath, BBC News
Delegates from developing countries have reacted angrily to what they 
see as attempts to block progress at the COP25 meeting in Madrid.

One negotiator told the BBC that the talks had failed to find agreement 
on a range of issues because of the blocking actions of some large emitters.
Carlos Fuller from Belize said that Brazil, Saudi Arabia, India and 
China were "part of the problem".
The central aim of the meeting is to "raise ambition" and set out a plan 
by which countries will put new climate pledges on the table before the 
end of next year.

But already there are signs that some major emitters are trying to limit 
the scale of what can be achieved in Madrid.
"There's an effort right now to block the words 'climate urgency' in 
text from Brazil and Saudi Arabia, saying we haven't used these words 
before in the UN, so we can't use them now," said Jennifer Morgan, 
executive director of Greenpeace International.

"This gap between what's happening on the outside and what's happening 
in the science, and this 'UN speak' that won't react and drive something 
is very frustrating."
Negotiators have told the BBC that the obstinacy of some countries was 
limiting agreement on non-contentious questions.

"I am very disturbed and angry," said Carlos Fuller, the chief 
negotiator for the small island developing states group of countries.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-50736617


[harsh video message]
*Climate Scientist William Moomaw Warning For Politicians and humanity*
Dec 11, 2019
Nick Breeze
Visit https://envisionation.co.uk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Avf-7xzFVo8


[for serious California land lords]
*PRIVATE FIREFIGHTERS -- THE HOTTEST LUXURY OF THE SUPER-RICH*
  - -
Where Climate Change and Insurance Companies Intersect
For decades, wildfire wasn't on the radar of insurance companies. But 
now, after years of unprecedented fires, they're getting pummeled with 
losses and are scrambling to reduce them, explained Pat Derland, a 
30-year wildland firefighting veteran and director of Stone Creek Fire LLC.

That's where offering fire protection services comes in. Providing fire 
protection allows insurance companies to avoid losses by proactively 
protecting the homes they insure, rather than rebuilding them from the 
ground up, explained Zac Taylor, who studies the intersection of  
climate change and insurance at the University of Leeds in England.
- -- 
"It's not discrimination, it's economics. I know one example, with one 
company, one individual was paying over one million dollars a year to 
provide protections. Not everyone can afford to send their kid to 
private school. Not all of us can afford a Range Rover … Some people 
have a ton of money and can afford insurance companies that will better 
protect their homes," said Derland, declining to reveal the details of 
the example he spoke of.

As climate change worsens, privatized firefighting will become ever more 
important. Companies like AIG have a proactive approach -- looking at 
problems before a fire occurs.
- - -
Taylor tells a different story. "The wealthiest in society are pulling 
up the proverbial gate over the moat. They are increasingly removed from 
the rest of us, politically, physically, and in indifference to the 
vulnerability of other people. Private insurance is a growing market to 
protect those who have and move beyond those who have not."
- - -
"In America, we believe that wealthy people have the right to pay more 
to protect their interests and give themselves greater opportunities. It 
exists in our healthcare system, it exists in our education system, it's 
a central organizing system of life in the United States," said Taylor. 
"We can already see a future where climate change exacerbates that."

No matter how you feel about the existence of private firefighters that 
protect the rich, they are an early symptom of the convergence of 
climate change and inequality -- two of the greatest man-made disasters 
of all time.
They may be the first, but they won't be the last.
https://whowhatwhy.org/2019/12/11/private-firefighters-the-hottest-luxury-of-the-super-rich/


[down under down]
*Hazardous Sydney smoke turns up heat in Australia's climate politics*
Colin Packham
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Devastating bushfires that blanketed Australia's 
largest city with hazardous smoke this week have heightened public anger 
and raised political pressure on the government to do more to battle 
climate change.
While cooler weather eased fires and haze around Sydney on Wednesday, 
the previous day's thick shroud of smoke triggered protests and prompted 
one conservative lawmaker to break with his party by directly tying 
recent weather to carbon emissions.

"We are in the middle of the worst drought in living memory, this is the 
second hottest year on record," New South Wales Environment Minister 
Matt Kean, from the centre-right Liberal-National coalition, told the 
Australian Broadcasting Corp Radio.
"Yesterday smoke was causing some of the worst air pollution in Sydney 
that we've ever seen - this is climate change."

People had choked in Sydney on Tuesday as more than 100 fires raged 
across the east coast, turning the daytime sky orange, obscuring 
visibility and disrupting public transport services as air quality plunged.
- - -
As many Sydneysiders finished work, several thousand protesters, many 
wearing masks, marched through the main business district to demand 
stronger action.
- - -
"They (the government) are to blame for our largest city being poisoned 
and rather than taking meaningful action, they are fast tracking new 
coal mines," said Chloe Rafferty, an organiser for the Uni Students for 
Climate Change group holding the march.

Australia is one of the world's largest carbon emitters per capita 
because of its reliance on coal-fired power plants.

In June, it approved a new coal mine in Queensland state by India's 
Adani Enterprises that is expected to produce 8 million to 10 million 
tonnes of thermal coal a year.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-australia-bushfires/hazardous-sydney-smoke-turns-up-heat-in-australias-climate-politics-idUKKBN1YF08H


[general guide]
*How to help a friend through a tough time, according to a clinical 
psychologist*
It can be hard to know what to say. Just show compassion.
By Kathryn Gordon - Dec 10, 2019
Science supports what we intuitively understand: Strong relationships 
enhance the quality of our lives. We have all felt our outlook brighten 
after a meaningful conversation and our mood sour after conflict. We 
have all had a bad day turn around after an afternoon of laughter and 
story-swapping with good friends. That's because having social support 
not only boosts our mental health, research has found, it also softens 
the impact of stress.

Our desire to belong is so universal that psychologists have labeled it 
a fundamental motivational drive. Social isolation is linked to a 
variety of problems, including attempting suicide and premature death. 
Loneliness, in other words, is finally being recognized as a public 
health issue.

As a clinical psychologist, I provide therapy to people who have been 
through heart-wrenching experiences that can leave them feeling deeply 
alone -- the death of a family member, sexual assault, domestic 
violence, unemployment, and other hardships. One of my top priorities as 
a therapist is working with patients to increase their sources of social 
support. Many have loved ones who are eager to help. The problem is, 
they may not know how to.

When we are not equipped to support loved ones through a hard time, our 
discomfort can compel us to point out a bright side or offer a simple 
solution, which may come across as dismissive. Sometimes, my patients 
say they walk away feeling judged or burdensome. While putting ourselves 
in other people's shoes and treating people how we want to be treated 
are generally useful principles, they are not always the most effective 
ways to cultivate compassion. It is hard to imagine being in a situation 
that you have not actually been in, and people differ in what they find 
comforting.

Through years of working with therapy patients and conducting mental 
health research, I have found some useful approaches for comforting 
people in pain. These are the most effective:

    *Ask them how they are feeling. Then, listen non-judgmentally to
    their response.*
    The simple act of asking someone how they're doing, with an
    open-ended question, shows that you care. Listen attentively rather
    than interrupting or offering your opinion. Ask simple follow-up
    questions like, "What does that feel like?" or "What has been on
    your mind as you're going through this?" This communicates that you
    genuinely want to know how they're doing and feel comfortable
    hearing the truth.

    *Show them that you want to understand and express sympathy.*
    For example, if someone is struggling with a new medical diagnosis,
    you can say, "It sounds like you're most worried about the side
    effects of the treatment. Is that right?" If you're speaking in
    person, nonverbal communication, like a concerned facial expression,
    is a powerful way to convey support. You can also express kindness
    and validation through statements such as, "I'm sad that you're in
    so much pain right now," or "You're in such a tough situation."

    *Ask how you can support them and resist jumping in to problem-solve.*
    As a therapist, I help patients assert their requests for emotional
    support to friends and family members. You can't be expected to
    mindread and know what will comfort every person in every situation.
    Acknowledging that and asking, "How can I support you?" or "What can
    I do to help?" expresses a desire to assist without presuming you
    know what is best for them.

    *Check in to see if they are suicidal.*
    Emotional pain can feel unbearable at times, especially for people
    lacking support and resources. Sometimes, this leads to suicidal
    thoughts. If someone you care about is going through a hard time,
    especially if they've had suicidal thoughts in the past, ask them
    directly if they are thinking about hurting or killing themselves.
    You may feel uncomfortable bringing it up, but research shows that
    asking about suicide is unlikely to harm people and may benefit
    them. It opens opportunities to share mental health resources, like
    the Crisis Text Line or the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline.
    It's also helpful to talk about a plan for safety, including
    reducing access to firearms and other lethal means.

    *Reassure them, realistically.*
    Statements like "Everything will be fine," "It could be worse," or
    "You just need to stop thinking that way," often lead people to feel
    ashamed for expressing pain, and rarely set them on a better path.
    Instead, try saying things like, "There's help available; we'll find
    it together," "A lot of people love you. You don't have to get
    through this alone," or "I've seen you get through extremely
    challenging times in the past, I believe in you."

There's no perfect thing to say in the most difficult situations, but we 
can support each other by opening dialogue, expressing compassion, and 
listening with the goal of understanding. Though sometimes hard to 
initiate, these conversations are the ones that strengthen our 
relationships. They make us feel we have a place to turn the next time 
the world feels lonely and dark.

Kathryn Gordon, Ph.D., is a licensed clinical psychologist living in 
North Dakota. She is writing The Suicidal Thoughts Workbook: 
Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy Skills to Reduce Emotional Pain, Increase 
Hope, and Prevent Suicide for New Harbinger. You can follow her on Twitter
https://www.vox.com/first-person/2019/12/10/21003228/how-to-help-a-friend


[Science from Dr James Hansen - clip from a long essay]
*Fire on Planet Earth*
James Hansen
Dec 11, 2019
California fires are a minuscule piece of global change that will sweep 
through our planet this
century and beyond, and the role of humans in the fires is debatable. 
Yet the fires are symbolic,
an apt metaphor for consequences of global warming, if we do not alter 
our planet's course.
I am concerned that, despite all the recent publicity about climate 
change, the public and
policymakers are not well-informed about the implications of climate 
change for energy policy.
I have a reputation for bluntly speaking truth to power, but for the 
last few years I minimized
comments on energy policy, other than advocating a rising carbon fee & 
dividend. My rational:
the only way I can make the basis for my conclusions really clear is to 
finish Sophie's Planet.
The book is taking longer than planned, because of the need to do some 
science and write a
science proposal. Now we enter an election year. I tried, but failed, to 
influence politicians and
public opinion in the past. However, in a democracy, it is essential to 
keep trying...
- - -
The difficulty of changing minds arose again recently. I received a 
message from a reporter
in my hometown in Iowa. He told me about a wealthy person in New York 
who wanted to
support my program. Was I willing to meet with her?
Of course. I was getting desperate to find financial support. I 
suggested a place to have lunch. I
was surprised that she brought someone with her, an official in NRDC. 
Our conversation
wandered around my various experiences while working for the government, 
until finally she got
to her question: did I not regret some of the things that I said in the 
past?
I puzzled a bit, but could not think of an example. However, I admitted 
that I regretted that I
lacked diplomacy, because that inadequacy had an adverse effect on some 
employees at the
NASA Goddard Institute. As my deputy there once noted, I tended to 
"blurt out the truth"
without any sugar coating. It got us into trouble.
Specifically, I repeatedly criticized what I called a "Battlestar 
Galactica" approach to Earth
observations, a focus on billion-dollar missions, at the expense of 
cheaper, faster missions. The
consequence, it seemed to me, was retaliation. We had the two best 
people in the world in
polarimetry measurements and analysis, but their careers were affected 
negatively, because I
never succeeded in getting the small satellite mission that we wanted.
That brought our conversation to an end. As we left the restaurant, I 
walked north and they
walked south. I doubted that I would hear from them again. I did not.
I was wondering as I walked, will scientific facts ever matter, or will 
positions be intransigent,
based on beliefs? What if we fail to curb emissions, sea level rises 
faster, and a vast immigration
problem arises? Will that change minds?
I doubt it. But perhaps changing of minds is not essential. Young people 
are getting fed up with
the deal they are being handed. We need their idealism, their open 
minds, their honesty.
It is a heavy burden that we place on them. They will need to understand 
the situation. It is not
just a climate problem. It is an energy problem. And a human rights problem.
Perhaps the best we can do is explain what we have seen and let them 
decide how they want to
push the system.
Pdf available at: 
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2019/20191211_Fire.pdf


[Tamino offers high-geek-level statistics]
*A Century and More of Sea Level Acceleration*
We have several estimates of global sea level based on tide gauge data,..
- - -
The rate of sea level rise is not constant, in fact it does increase, 
and we call that "acceleration."...
- - -
Yet climate deniers continue to deny it.

The latest series of posts (about sea level) started with Dave Burton 
denying the existence of acceleration in tide gauge records from 
individual stations. We proved him wrong; he refused to admit his 
mistake. Our recent look at the satellite data from NOAA/STAR was 
because Kip Hansen claimed it not only failed to show acceleration, it 
demonstrated the absence of acceleration. We proved him wrong too, and 
he has yet to admit his mistake. As often happens with climate deniers, 
when confronted with actual analysis he resorted to claiming the data he 
picked wasn't good enough to do the job.

This post was inspired by another recent WUWT error which touts the 
Jevrejeva data as the solution to their sea level acceleration problem. 
It's just as foolish and mistaken as the others, but rather than dissect 
it I decided just to post about sea level, and what the tide gauge and 
satellite data sets have to say about it.

They're unanimous. Acceleration. Especially recently.
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2019/12/10/a-century-and-more-of-sea-level-acceleration/
- - -
data set available 
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UaePmF9fkKWK6pUxPWgZhuhTP-EvMud6/view



[watch out for pattern change]
*Newly Identified Jet-Stream Pattern Could Imperil Global Food Supplies*
A new study finds a 20-fold increase in the risk of simultaneous heat 
waves in major crop-producing regions when the pattern is in place

By Jeff Masters on December 9, 2019

During the summer of 2018, the future of climate change became the 
present. Highly amplified jet stream patterns remained stuck in place 
for unusually long periods of time, bringing the planet an onslaught of 
remarkable weather catastrophes--for example, unprecedented heat waves 
and drought in East Asia and Northern Europe, the start of the deadliest 
and most expensive fire season on record in California, and Japan's 
deadliest floods since 1982.

The extreme summer weather helped bring the 2018 tally of billion-dollar 
weather-related disasters to 39--the fourth highest such total for any 
year since 1990, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield. Among these 
were seven billion-dollar droughts--the highest number of billion-dollar 
droughts on record (previous record: six in 1999 and 2015). Total 
damages from drought in 2018 were near $33 billion--tied for the 
fifth-highest level of global drought damage since 1975.

Unfortunately, extreme jet stream patterns like those of 2018 may be 
getting more common and more extreme, representing a significant danger 
to global food security. An April 26 paper, Extreme weather events in 
early summer 2018 connected by a recurrent hemispheric wave-7 pattern, 
by climate scientist Kai Kornhuber of Columbia University and 
co-authors, found that the 2018 extremes were associated with a 
particular mode of "stuck in place" jet stream behavior--one that has 
increased in frequency and persistence in recent decades.

A just-published December 9 follow-up study, Amplified Rossby waves 
enhance risk of concurrent heatwaves in major breadbasket regions--also 
led by Dr. Kornhuber--found that stuck jet stream patterns like seen in 
2018 are prone to bringing simultaneous heat waves and associated 
drought conditions to multiple important grain-producing regions of the 
world. The authors wrote that these stuck jet stream patterns can cause 
"reductions of 4% in crop production in the affected regions, with 
regional decreases up to 11%. Given the importance of these regions for 
global food production, the identified teleconnections have the 
potential to fuel multiple harvest failures posing risks to global food 
security." (A teleconnection is a causal connection or correlation 
between meteorological phenomena which occur a long distance apart).

In a press release that accompanied the most recent paper, Dr. Kornhuber 
said, "We found a 20-fold increase in the risk of simultaneous heat 
waves in major crop-producing regions when these global-scale wind 
patterns are in place. Until now, this was an underexplored 
vulnerability in the food system. During these events there actually is 
a global structure in the otherwise quite chaotic circulation. The bell 
can ring in multiple regions at once."
- - -
*EARTH'S CHANGING JET STREAM BEHAVIOR*
Earth's atmosphere features a series of wave-like troughs and ridges in 
the jet stream called planetary (or Rossby) waves with a wavelength of 
several thousand miles, which march from west-to-east around the globe 
at about 15 - 25 mph. Their long wavelength means that typically 5 - 10 
of these Rossby waves circle the globe at any particular time.

Kornhuber and colleagues found that between 1979 and 2018, Rossby waves 
with specific wavelengths, termed wave-5 and wave-7--meaning that 
north-south wobbles in the jet stream that produce either 5 or 7 peaks 
and corresponding troughs around the planet's circumference--can lock 
into a grid of symmetric large meanders centered over predictable 
regions. The wave-5 patterns tend to get stuck in place with ridges of 
high pressure (and their associated heat waves and drought) located over 
central North America, eastern Europe and eastern Asia; the wave-7 
patterns bring heat waves and drought to western-central North America, 
western Europe and western Asia.

"Normally, low harvests in one region are expected to be balanced out by 
good harvests elsewhere," said study coauthor Dim Coumou of the 
Institute for Environmental Studies at VU University Amsterdam, who has 
co-authored several papers on extreme jet stream behavior in recent 
years. "These waves can cause reduced harvests in several important 
breadbaskets simultaneously, creating risks for global food production."

Though the current study did not find that wave-5 and wave-7 stuck jet 
stream patterns changed in frequency during the 1979 - 2018 period, a 
number of other studies have found evidence of an increase in stuck jet 
stream patterns in recent years, including Mann et al. (2018), Projected 
changes in persistent extreme summer weather events: The role of 
quasi-resonant amplification, Mann et al. (2017), Influence of 
Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme 
Weather Events, and Lehmann et al. (2015), Increased record-breaking 
precipitation events under global warming.

An October 2018 realclimate.org post by Michael Mann gave a good summary 
of these studies, which have generally found that human-caused climate 
change may be to blame for this highly concerning change in jet stream 
behavior. Dr. Mann predicted that our future climate is likely to bring 
a significant increase in stuck summertime jet stream patterns capable 
of bringing a rise in extreme destructive weather events like we 
experienced in 2018.

Even if stuck jet stream patterns do not increase in frequency, heat 
waves and their associated droughts are virtually certain to grow more 
intense in a warming climate. This behavior will bring a significant 
threat to global food security when a stuck jet stream brings intense 
long-lasting drought conditions to multiple grain-producing regions. As 
I wrote in a 2016 post, Food System Shock: Climate Change's Greatest 
Threat to Civilization, simultaneous droughts hitting multiple 
breadbasket regions are capable of delivering a dangerous global "food 
system shock". A "Food System Shock" report issued in 2015 by insurance 
giant Lloyds of London outlined a plausible extreme shock to global food 
production involving multiple droughts that could cause rioting, 
terrorist attacks, civil war, mass starvation and severe losses to the 
global economy. Lloyds gave uncomfortably high odds of this 
occurring--significantly higher than 0.5% per year, which works out to 
at least an 18% chance of occurrence in the next 40 years. Another 
excellent discussion of the dire food supply risks we have due to 
climate change is given in a very sobering book published in October 
called Food or War, by science writer Julian Cribb. I plan to review the 
book in a future post.
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/eye-of-the-storm/newly-identified-jet-stream-pattern-could-imperil-global-food-supplies/


*This Day in Climate History - December  12, 2007 - from D.R. Tucker*

The House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform releases the 
report "Political Interference with Climate Change Science under the 
Bush Administration."

http://mark-bowen.com/images/downloads/house_oversight_committee-rept_1207.pdf 


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