[TheClimate.Vote] December 22, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

December 22, 2019

[upwind]
*Fires west of Sydney burn over 2 million acres*
https://wildfiretoday.com/2019/12/21/fires-west-of-sydney-burn-over-2-million-acres/
- - -
[growing danger]
*Australia fires: Death toll rises as fires sweep across three states*
https://wildfiretoday.com/2019/12/21/fires-west-of-sydney-burn-over-2-million-acres/
- - -
[heat before the flames]
*Australia has its hottest day for a second straight day as areas face 
'catastrophic' fire conditions*
Records were shattered by wide margins as a huge swath of southeastern 
Australia went up in smoke.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/12/19/australia-has-its-hottest-day-second-straight-day-areas-face-catastrophic-fire-conditions/


[the term is 'displaced']
*Climate Change Displacement Is Not Hypothetical*
The next president needs to have a plan to relocate vulnerable 
populations out of environmental crisis zones. At Thursday's debate, no 
one seemed ready.
By NICK MARTIN
December 19, 2019
When climate change is discussed, especially in the political sphere, it 
doesn't take long for the word "existential" to start getting tossed 
around. This tends to frame the matter in the far-off yet-to-come--if we 
don't act now, things will be bad later. But for many communities, 
especially those inhabited by people of color and Indigenous citizens, 
climate change is not an issue of the future. It is an issue right now.

In what simultaneously served as both the most pleasant surprise and the 
most familiar disappointment of Thursday's Democratic debate, moderator 
Tim Alberta of Politico posed a fairly straightforward climate policy 
question: With the understanding that curbing all carbon emissions at 
this point will only stave off the worst effects of climate change, 
would the candidates seeking the Democratic nomination support the use 
of federal funds to relocate American families and businesses away from 
cities and towns made uninhabitable by environmental factors?

Alberta first tossed the question to Senator Amy Klobuchar, and in the 
span of 10 seconds, the presidential hopeful from Minnesota stumbled. "I 
very much hope we will not have to relocate entire cities, but we will 
probably have to relocate some individual residents," Klobuchar said.

Klobuchar at least knew well enough to cite a sad viral video from the 
devastating Paradise fire and quote an Ojibwe saying, recounting how 
"great leaders make decisions not for this generation but seven 
generations from now." For those who pay attention to such things, it's 
worth noting that Klobuchar's broken this line out before. Is it an 
Ojibwe saying? Or is it Iroquois? Or Seneca? Or is that beside the point 
when Klobuchar has yet to take a solid position on Enbridge's Line 3 
tar-sands oil pipeline that will cut through the land of the Fond du Lac 
Band of Lake Superior Chippewa and snake within miles of three other 
tribal nations? Who's to say?

Klobuchar wasn't alone in her sidestepping of the relocation issue. 
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders--who in his first remarks during the 
debate went out of his way to critique the updated North American trade 
deal passed by the House for not staking out a position on climate 
change as it is affected by international trade--also offered a subpar 
response to Alberta's question. Sanders attempted to turn the tables on 
the moderators, which, given the droll level of questioning in these 
affairs, is typically an easy task. But he fell into the same trap as 
Klobuchar, claiming that Alberta's question "misses the mark," because 
climate change "is not an issue of relocating people in towns. The issue 
now is whether we save the planet for our children and grandchildren."

Again, that is true--the problem is absolutely existential and will 
determine whether the human race gets to continue doing things like 
having three-hour debates. But it is also here, right now, at our gates. 
As Andrew Yang pointed out, relocation efforts are not a hypothetical 
challenge--which also speaks to an issue with Alberta's framing of the 
worthwhile inquiry--they are already underway.

In Louisiana, the state-recognized Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw tribe was 
forced to leave behind its lands on the Isle de Jean Charles. The lands 
were not the ancestral home of the tribe but rather a spot in the 
Louisiana wetlands where they were forced to seek refuge in the 
nineteenth century, during the harshest years of America's Manifest 
Destiny era. Relocation proved an arduous process given the state's 
initial refusal to involve them in discussions of where, exactly, they 
would be relocated. It was further compounded by the ironic reality that 
the flooding of their lands was not some unfortunate situation of 
happenstance but the result--in part--of rising Gulf-area water levels 
caused by the destruction of the natural waterways and state-sanctioned 
drilling in the Gulf and elsewhere.

As Alberta referenced, the future looks grim for a great many 
communities, Native and otherwise. The entirety of Miami and other 
coastal Florida locales are desperately in need of new flood-prevention 
infrastructure, and entire sections of that city will almost assuredly 
have to be relocated within the century. A report from the Center for 
Climate Integrity released in June outlined the multibillion-dollar 
effort that will be required to relocate the communities most at risk; a 
terrifying Popula feature by reporter Sarah Miller proved that those 
with a vested stake in squeezing every last dollar out of wealthy 
residents hoping to enjoy the skyline while it lasts are making it clear 
that such efforts will not be undertaken by private industry.

The American federal government has footed the bill for relocating whole 
communities plenty of times in its past. The only difference is that 
then, it did it with its weapons pointed at Native men, women, and 
children--and pulled the trigger on anybody who dared stand up for the 
ancestral lands coveted by that same government for development and the 
resulting capital. Sanders was right that Alberta's question missed the 
mark, he was just wrong about the manner in which it missed. As the 
United States--the imperialist, fossil-fuel-guzzling, wealthiest nation 
on earth--is forced to reckon with the climate disaster it has helped 
force upon those same communities, the question is not, and cannot be, 
one of "Should we help them?" It must be a question of "Why haven't we 
already started?"
Nick Martin is a staff writer
https://newrepublic.com/article/156075/climate-change-displacement-not-hypothetical



[money as payback]
*Alaska's government retaliates after Goldman Sachs drops Arctic oil 
investments*
This week, mega-bank Goldman Sachs said it would no longer finance new 
oil exploration in the Arctic as part of a broader move away from fossil 
fuels.

Now, Gov. Mike Dunleavy says he is reconsidering whether Alaska should 
do business with the bank, and the Alaska Department of Revenue has 
already booted Goldman from a billion-dollar plan to borrow money to pay 
oil and gas drillers.
"In response to Goldman's pledge, the governor's office has directed the 
review and where possible without financial or progress impairment, the 
removal of Goldman from business relations with the state," acting 
Revenue Commissioner Mike Barnhill wrote in a Friday letter to Goldman's 
CEO.

Wrapping up a weeklong trip to the East Coast, Dunleavy told reporters 
on Thursday that he has "serious questions" about doing business with 
any company that isn't willing to work with Alaska.

Visiting New York City, Dunleavy spoke about his concerns regarding 
Goldman to the Wall Street Journal's editorial board. Seventeen state 
legislators also signed a letter asking Goldman to reconsider.

"I think it's part of my role to advocate on behalf of Alaska," Dunleavy 
told reporters...
more at - 
https://www.adn.com/politics/2019/12/21/alaskas-government-retaliates-after-goldman-sachs-drops-arctic-oil-investments/



[transitional industry]
*Automakers Accelerating Climate Change, Failing to Put the Brakes on 
Emissions*
By Dana Drugmand - Saturday, December 21, 2019
Automakers are failing to drive a rapid shift towards low-carbon 
transport, according to a new analysis, indicating that the industry is 
not aligned with the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming 
below 2 degrees C.

That study, released earlier this month by CDP and the World 
Benchmarking Alliance (WBA), looked at 25 leading auto manufacturers and 
graded each company on its overall alignment with the transition to a 
low-carbon economy. No company managed to score an "A" grade, and most 
of the manufacturers continue to produce fleets made almost entirely of 
gasoline-powered vehicles...
- - -
"The vast majority of car companies aren't hitting their current targets 
or setting new ones for the future," said Vicky Sins, Climate and Energy 
Benchmark Lead at WBA. "Unless that changes right now, they won't hit 
the Paris goals and will face disruption to their business in the 
future. The transport industry is responsible for 25 percent of global 
emissions from fossil fuels so this should be a major concern to the 
industry, governments, investors, and the planet."...
- - -
*Turning a Corner? *
Automakers are starting to develop new zero-emission options to add to 
their fleets. In June, Toyota and Subaru announced a joint initiative to 
develop an electric SUV. Hyundai recently announced a "Strategy 2025" 
plan, and as part of it the automaker "aims to secure leadership in 
electrification by selling 670,000 electric vehicles annually and become 
one of the world's top three manufacturers of battery and fuel cell EVs 
by 2025." Mazda is developing its first electric car, which it plans to 
launch next year. Ford is also investing in electric vehicles, as are 
other automakers.

The market is expected to shift in favor of cleaner cars over the next 
decade as the technology continues improving, reducing costs. Automakers 
are slowly turning the corner towards de-carbonization, but whether they 
will accelerate down that path, or continue stalling, remains to be seen.

"Currently we're seeing a transition to a low carbon economy with the 
brakes on," Sins of WBA said.
https://www.desmogblog.com/2019/12/20/car-companies-accelerating-climate-change-failing-put-brakes-emissions



[Fun and games]
*Using Roleplaying To Imagine Life Under a Green New Deal--Dungeons & 
Dragons Style*
Instead of wizards and clerics, Iowans are envisioning roles like 
community planners and memory stewards, in an environmentally and 
economically just society.
BY GAVIN ARONSEN
DES MOINES, IOWA--"Who in this room has played Dungeons & Dragons?" asks 
Cat Rocketship, an organizer with the progressive advocacy group Iowa 
Citizens for Community Improvement (CCI), of a room of more than three 
dozen activists. They were envisioning the future under a Green New Deal 
during an experimental workshop Nov. 16, 2019, at the Central Library in 
downtown Des Moines.

Rocketship was introducing a small-group activity, imagining new social 
roles in a 2030 society that has taken significant steps toward 
environmental and economic justice. Instead of wizards and clerics (per 
Dungeons & Dragons), proposed roles ranged from the familiar, like 
community planners, to the more creative, such as memory stewards to 
record and preserve stories about their communities.

The workshop was led by Alex O'Keefe, creative director of the youth-led 
climate organization Sunrise Movement, and members of CCI. Roughly a 
quarter of attendees traveled from other states to discuss a "Green New 
Deal for Iowa and rural America."

"In Michigan, there is a very big divide between urban and suburban 
communities and rural communities," said Maria Ibarra-Frayre, 29, deputy 
director of working-class organizing group We the People Michigan, who 
traveled from Detroit. "There is very little overlay or 
relationship-building between those communities."

Participants were given notebooks (with covers fashioned from recycled 
posters promoting a past CCI event) to record their thoughts throughout 
a series of collaborative brainstorming sessions. They wrote letters to 
their 2009 selves amid the Great Recession, then letters to their 2030 
selves imagining equitable rural communities. Ideas for the future 
included affordable loans for beginning farmers, more robust local food 
distribution markets, and guaranteed union jobs to plant prairie land, 
build electric rail and enhance rural internet access.

At day's end, organizers collected the notebooks for delivery to a group 
of animators who will create a short video to galvanize support for a 
Green New Deal. It will be released in mid-January ahead of the Iowa 
caucuses February 3.

As a model, the workshop opened with an animated short, A Message From 
the Future with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, illustrated by Molly 
Crabapple, produced by The Intercept and narrated by the congresswoman. 
In the video, Ocasio-Cortez imagines the United States after Medicare 
for All (described as "the most popular social program in American 
history"), a federal jobs guarantee and nationwide high-speed rail, to 
help envision an inclusive, environmentally friendly, progressive future.

The idea appealed to Larry Ginter, a 79-year-old retired family farmer 
from Rhodes, a rural community of about 300 people in central Iowa where 
he grew up. He recounted how the New Deal revitalized his hometown...
- - -
"My fear is that our government and a lot of people won't buy into the 
idea that we need … real structural change to get things going on here" 
to fend off climate catastrophe, he tells In These Times. "If we don't 
get a handle on this, we're going to see things that we never dreamed 
of."...
http://inthesetimes.com/article/22200/imagining-role-playing-green-new-deal-iowa-midwest



[North, to Alaska]
*Where Farming is Booming BECAUSE of Global Warming*
By Tom Lewis | December 20, 2019
Most stories about climate change and agriculture are about the 
destruction of crops by droughts and floods and storms and plagues of 
migrating insects. But there is a place, in America, where agriculture 
of the right kind -- small-scale, diverse, regenerative, low-impact -- 
is flourishing because of global warming. Of all places, it's Alaska.

The number of farms in Alaska increased by 30% between 2012 and 2017, 
while the total number of farms in America declined. Most of that growth 
was in small farms of nine acres or less. And in that same time period 
the value of farm products sold directly to consumers doubled, to $4.4 
million. Warming temperatures (Anchorage experienced 90 degrees 
Fahrenheit last summer for the first time ever) and longer growing 
seasons (by 45% since 1900 in Fairbanks) have opened the way for growing 
plants that could not have survived there before.

Now we need an immediate disclaimer here. This sort of example is often 
used by climate-change deniers to try to make a case that climate change 
has both positive and negative effects that over time will even out, 
that people who see climate change as a catastrophic, even existential 
threat are looking only at the negatives and are ignoring the positives. 
Hogwash. AGW -- global warming caused by humans burning fossil fuels -- 
is going to play a large part in bringing industrial civilization down 
and drastically reducing human population.

So what's interesting about these developments in Alaska is not what 
they say about the effects of global warming, but what they say about 
our reactions to global warming. People all over the world, invisible to 
the industrial media, are abandoning industrial agriculture, learning 
Permaculture, moving to small acreages, figuring out how to feed 
themselves without industrial inputs, and to produce their own energy 
where the energy is to be used.

This approach is the last, best hope of humanity now. This is the only 
kind of resilience that could -- there are certainly no guarantees -- 
see a small number of our kind through the coming catastrophe. They will 
have to endure not only the loss of the cheap and abundant fossil fuel 
energy that made the Industrial Age possible, but the long-lasting 
effects of their consumption.

There is simply no way that anyone could successfully take up this kind 
of farming after the crisis hits, the learning curve is way too steep. 
And there are precious few people on this planet who will willingly 
renounce the comforts of the dying age to learn the hard lessons of a 
truly sustainable life. Those few -- the Hutterites, the Amish and 
Mennonites, the urban farmers of Cuba and the new farmers of Alaska, for 
example -- may not be there yet (that is, to a totally sustainable, 
off-the-grid life) but they are showing us the road less traveled, one 
that anyone with a life expectancy over 20 years or so will richly 
regret not having taken.

One other interesting thing about this development in Alaska. One of the 
outstanding successes there has been an urban farm and farm market 
combined in Anchorage. About 20 farmers are growing and selling produce 
there, and almost all of them are women refugees from places like 
Cambodia, Sudan, the Congo, Burma, Somalia. Climate refugees, showing us 
what they've learned. Showing the way forward in a state that has gorged 
on oil profits for half a century,  but has now almost completely run 
dry. Priceless.
http://www.dailyimpact.net/2019/12/20/where-farming-is-booming-because-of-global-warming/



[BBC overview of the true cost of fires]
*Australia fires: The huge economic cost of Australia's bushfires*
By Tim McDonald
BBC News - 20 December 2019
Australia is facing a massive bill from unprecedented, deadly fires that 
have burned an area bigger than Belgium.

Insurers have received claims worth A$240m (£126m ; $165m) since 
October, and they expect the number will grow significantly.

Medical bills from the fires and smoke haze could also run into the 
hundreds of millions.

And one analysis suggests disruptions caused by the fire and smoke haze 
could cost Sydney as much as A$50m a day.

The bushfires have killed eight people and destroyed 700 homes.

There appears to be no reprieve in sight, as temperatures are expected 
to hit 40C on the weekend, stoking fears of more fires.

The director of the Fire Centre Research Hub at the University of 
Tasmania, Prof David Bowman, has labelled them "absolutely 
transformative and unprecedented" and said they underscored a need for 
governments to rethink how they approach fires.

Health costs
Prof Bowman told the BBC the health bills from the current fires will 
run into the hundreds of millions of dollars.

He said Tasmania faced A$25m in health costs from bushfires and smoke 
haze at the beginning of 2019, but that the current crisis was on a much 
bigger scale.

Economic costs of Australia's bushfires
700houses have been destroyed by the fires.

2,306insurance claims have been made up to mid-December

A$240mis the value of those claims.

A$12-50mis the estimated cost of disruptions due to smoke in Sydney.

Source: Insurance Council of Australia, SGS Economics
"It's pretty much a third of the Australian population that has been 
impacted, with prolonged, episodic exposure and sometimes extreme health 
impacts," he said.

"But the broader social impact of the smoke and the loss of productivity 
is anybody's guess."

Up to A$50m a day in disruption
Consulting firm SGS Economics estimates that Sydney generates roughly 
A$1.2bn a day worth of economic activity, but the haze is causing 
between A$12m and A$50m worth of daily disruption.

Those costs are due to people missing work because they feel unwell, 
disruption to transport services, and workers abandoning their desks 
because the haze tripped the fire alarms.

The haze had, at least anecdotally, a clear effect on the hospitality 
sector as well.

"If I'm running a bar and I'm on the waterfront, I'm not selling any 
cocktails, because there's no-one there," said Terry Rawnsley who 
oversees social analysis for SGS Economics.

Rethink on volunteers
The direct cost of fighting the fires could blow out dramatically too, 
especially if there's a reliance on aviation.

"It's extremely expensive and extremely addictive," said Prof Bowman.

But Mr Rawnsley said aviation costs need to be weighed against other 
priorities.

"Flying in another water bomber's going to cost sixty million bucks, but 
you're going to lose that every day in the economy," he said.

PM Morrison apologises for US holiday amid crisis
All-time temperature record broken again
Australia has long relied on volunteers to fight fires, largely because 
there's a need for a surge of additional resources during emergencies, 
but also because it's extremely expensive to deploy paid firefighters 
over such large areas.

The New South Wales Rural Fire Service is the world's largest volunteer 
fire service, with about 70,000 volunteers, and Victoria's Country Fire 
Authority has about half that number.

But Prof Bowman thinks this year's fires are so extreme that they could 
force the authorities to rethink that model.

"It's not realistic anymore to think you can have volunteer brigades 
working for a protracted season," he said.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has pledged an additional A$11m for the 
National Aerial Firefighting Centre, but dismissed calls for more 
support for volunteer.

Spend now, save later
Both experts say there's a need to improve prevention strategies, which 
tend to be more cost effective.

This might involve better land management and fire mitigation 
strategies, new building standards, and more restrictive land use policies.

"The climate has changed, and now it's really about how we manage. How 
do we adapt and evolve?" said Mr Rawnsley.

An analysis by SGS, using insurance industry statistics, found that more 
than 1.6m people live in communities in New South Wales and Victoria 
that are are "high to extreme risk of bushfire".

Even though the Black Saturday bushfires killed 173 people in 2008, more 
people have moved into fire prone areas since then.

The numbers have increased by 29,000 in New South Wales and 110,000 in 
Victoria.

Black Saturday: The day Australia saw 'the gates of hell'
Thousands of insurance claims
It's still early in the bushfire season, which makes it impossible to 
know what other bills Australia's government agencies and the community 
might face.

Already, the Insurance Council of Australia says it has received claims 
worth A$240m since October, which is well in excess of claims in the 
past few years.

That figures includes 2,306 claims, worth an estimated A$182.6m, from 
fires on the New South Wales Mid-North Coast and Queensland.

Previous fire tragedies in Australia have run into the billions.

A royal commission called after the Black Saturday fires in 2008 put the 
cost at A$4.4bn.

That included insurance claims, which the Insurance Council of Australia 
said totalled about A$1.2bn.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50862349


*This Day in Climate History - December  22, 2010 - from D.R. Tucker*
The New York Times reports on the legacy of the late climate scientist 
Charles David Keeling.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/22/science/earth/22carbon.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

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