[TheClimate.Vote] Febuary 2, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/February 2, 2019/


[Audio podcast for ourselves an our posterity]
*The Fatherly Podcast Episode 28: How Do We Prepare Kids for Global 
Warming?*
Preparing a kid to live in the world isn't just about the kid -- it's 
about the world. And as the world gets warmer, it's also getting more 
dangerous.
By Fatherly - Jan 28 2019
As the global threat of climate change looms, parents worry (for good 
reason) about the state of the environment and the potential threat 
changing temperatures, water levels, and weather might pose to the 
future wellbeing of their children. The Fatherly Podcast host Joshua 
David Stein and co-host Jason Gay both worry about this in the abstract. 
But the abstract can only get you so far. So the duo reached out to 
legendary University of Hawaii climate scientist Dr. Camilo Mora, the 
author of a new, mind-blowing paper about future disasters.

Our two dads were looking for Mora, who is also a dad, to provide some 
reassurance. That did not happen.

Mora outlined a future in which the only constant is likely to be 
destructive change, further convincing Joshua and Jason that they need 
to teach their kids to always be prepared and to prepare themselves for 
the inevitable side effects of climate change. Eager to make some plans, 
Joshua and Jason then spoke with Patrick Coleman, Fatherly's parenting 
expert, on how to talk to kids about the environment. The takeaway: Try 
to do it in a way that won't terrify them. (Good luck with that!)

Enjoy our most terrifying and depressing podcast to date. Also, batten 
down the hatches.
https://www.fatherly.com/love-money/fatherly-podcast-global-warming-camilo-mora/


[sea changes]
*Major study uncovers 'sea change' in world's understanding of Atlantic 
conveyor belt*
An international research programme has uncovered data that could 
transform scientists' understanding of the Atlantic Ocean current - a 
circulation pattern that plays a central role in determining weather 
across the world.

The research, published in Science, challenges the long-held view that 
the strength of the "Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation" (AMOC) 
is primarily driven by processes in the Labrador Sea, which is in the 
north-west Atlantic.

Instead, the project finds that - over a 21-month period - the strength 
of the AMOC was most linked to processes in waters between Greenland and 
Scotland, more than 1,000 miles away in the north-east Atlantic.

The research is "very useful for our understanding of how climate change 
could affect the AMOC because it points us in the direction of which 
regions and processes might be particularly important for maintaining 
the overturning circulation", a scientist tells Carbon Brief.

*Conveyor belt*
The AMOC - which is sometimes referred to as the "Atlantic conveyor 
belt" - is a large-scale ocean current that moves warm, salty water from 
the tropics to regions further north, such as western Europe...
- -
The warm water that the AMOC carries northwards releases heat into the 
atmosphere, which means it plays a crucial role in keeping western 
Europe warm. Without it, winters in the UK could be around 5C colder.

Scientists fear that climate change could be causing the AMOC to "slow 
down". Last year, two studies published in Nature found that the AMOC 
had slowed by 15% since the mid-20th century. Further AMOC slowdown has 
been linked to an increased risk of intense storms in Europe and faster 
sea level rise in parts of the US, among other problems...
https://www.carbonbrief.org/major-study-uncovers-sea-change-in-worlds-understanding-of-atlantic-conveyor-belt
- -
[Science AAAS]
*A sea change in our view of overturning in the subpolar North Atlantic*
[clip from Abstract]
In a departure from the prevailing view that changes in deep water 
formation in the Labrador Sea dominate MOC variability, these results 
suggest that the conversion of warm, salty, shallow Atlantic waters into 
colder, fresher, deep waters that move southward in the Irminger and 
Iceland basins is largely responsible for overturning and its 
variability in the subpolar basin.
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6426/516
- - -
[Floating tubes gather data]
*Current Status of Argo*
The broad-scale global array of temperature/salinity profiling floats, 
known as Argo, has already grown to be a major component of the ocean 
observing system. Argo is a standard to which other developing ocean 
observing systems can look to. For example, Argo offers ideas on various 
topics such as how to collaborate internationally, how to develop a data 
management system and how to change the way scientists think about 
collecting data. Deployments began in 2000 and continue today at the 
rate of about 800 per year.
http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/About_Argo.html


[Activism March 16-18, 2019]
*The March for Fossil Fuel Freedom: A 34-mile Walk to Expose Oily Wells*
Wells Fargo Bank has a dirty-energy secret: it's a leading lender to the 
fossil-fuel industry. That's why we're ramping up our new campaign 
against "Oily Wells" by marching 34 miles, from Palo Alto to San Francisco.

We'll make 12 "stagecoach stops" along the way - one for every year that 
remains to take urgent action on climate change - and arrive at the 
bank's world headquarters just in time to crash their annual founding 
day celebration.
https://oilywells.com/


[video interview - "dangerous underestimating"]
*The Climate and Security Podcast Episode 6: The "Godmother of Climate 
and Security": Sherri Goodman*
The Center for Climate and Security
Published on Jan 14, 2019
In this episode, host Dr. Sweta Chakraborty talks to the "Godmother of 
Climate and Security," Sherri Goodman. Sweta asks Sherri about the 
Arctic, which is changing faster than any other place on earth! Sherri 
explains how the Arctic is warming at twice the rate of the rest of the 
planet--destabilizing infrastructure and resulting in a new ocean. She 
describes climate change is a "threat multiplier" (a term she coined!) 
in that it amplifies the impacts to various aspects of our lives, from 
the food we eat to the water we drink and to where we choose to live. 
This is an episode not to be missed!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=keyq57qQRvU
- -
[full interview]
Sherri Goodman is a Senior Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center's 
Environmental Change and Security Program and Polar Institute. She is 
also Chair of the Council on Strategic Risk and a Senior Fellow and 
Founder of the CNA Military Advisory Board. Sherri is credited with 
educating a generation of US military and government officials about the 
nexus between climate change and national security, using her famous 
coinage, "threat multiplier," to fundamentally reshape the national 
discourse on the topic. A former first Deputy Undersecretary of Defense 
(Environmental Security), CEO of the Consortium for Ocean Leadership, 
and staff member on the US Senate Armed Services Committee, Goodman has 
founded, led, or advised nearly a dozen research organizations on 
environmental and energy matters, national security, and public policy. 
She has degrees from Harvard Law School, Harvard Kennedy School, and 
Amherst College, from which she also received an honorary degree in 
Humane Letters. Sherri also studied at the London School of Economics 
and Political Science.
*
**Where do you see the most exciting research/debates happening in your 
field?*
The most exciting current research and debates on climate security are 
occurring in three inter-related areas: First, the emergence of the 
"Responsibility to Prepare" concept, developed by the Center for Climate 
and Security, is enabling both deeper research and more consequential 
action on the unprecedented risks and unprecedented foresight we face in 
the climate era. We now live in an era of unprecedented threats from 
climate change, nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, cyber attacks, 
hyper-nationalism and other disruptive trends. At the same time, we have 
access to unprecedented foresight from technological advances in 
improved predictive capabilities, data analytics, artificial 
intelligence, quantum computing, virtual reality and other advanced 
technologies. As we acquire capabilities to better predict alternative 
futures, we have a responsibility to prepare for these unprecedented 
risks. The goal of the Responsibility to Prepare agenda is to build an 
international security architecture at all levels (national, regional 
and international) that is resilient to systemic threats. Researchers 
and scholars of climate security will be better able to assess and 
analyze these risks as governments and others begin to mobilize to 
deploy these advanced predictive capabilities.

Second, and related to the Responsibility to Prepare, are the exciting 
developments in predictive capability that better link short-term 
weather predictions to medium to longer-term climate trends. Sometimes 
referred to as "subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting," this emerging 
capability will enable whole sectors of society, from agriculture to 
real estate to urban and military planners, to incorporate better 
forecasts about weather and climate, from short-term forecasts to 
12-month predictions, into their business planning. This capability can 
also be used better to evaluate climate security risks on a regional 
basis, integrating ecological, political, security and social risks into 
more accurate foresight tools.

The third exciting area of new research and debate is the growing 
convergence among core systemic risks to security in the 21st century. 
Cross-sectoral risks including climate change, nuclear, biological and 
chemical weapons, cyber-warfare and other advanced technologies to 
control and disrupt data connectivity and markets, as well as 
hyper-nationalism, are combining into dynamic new threats to the liberal 
world order. The relationships among core nuclear, biological, climate 
and security risks are growing more complex and interconnected, and 
these issues are likely to begin converging in new ways. A new field of 
research is emerging to explore the convergence of these risks and how 
to devise management methods and solutions that account for multiple, 
intersecting threats and opportunities from new nuclear and climate 
technologies.

*How has the way you understand the world changed over time, and what 
(or who) prompted the most significant shifts in your thinking?*
In the Cold War, when I came of age, the existential threat to our 
planet was widely thought to be a "bolt out of the blue" nuclear attack 
by the Soviet Union. We devoted billions of dollars to deterring and 
defending against an all-out nuclear attack. We characterized this as a 
"low probability, high consequence" event. In today's climate era, we 
recognize that climate risks pose an equally existential threat to human 
existence. Indeed, climate risks are "high probability, high 
consequence" events, for which we, as nations and communities, are 
largely unprepared today. The shift in my own thinking occurred during 
the course of leading and writing the first CNA Military Advisory Board 
(MAB) study in 2006-07. I learned from both world-class climate 
scientists and some of our most distinguished military leaders that 
climate risks pose serious national security threats.

*How did your government service influence your thinking about climate 
security?*
My service in the US Department of Defense and on the staff of the US 
Senate Armed Services Committee influenced my thinking by giving me the 
experience of assessing risks in terms of types of national security 
threats, levels of risks and ranges of solutions. It also enabled me to 
appreciate the importance of engaging military and national security 
leaders to address one of the most important threats of our time. At the 
same time, a whole of government approach and response, including 
science and technology, energy, foreign policy, development, disaster 
planning and response, agriculture, transportation, health and 
education, is essential to address the challenges of climate security.

*How does climate change act as a threat multiplier? What are the 
implications of thinking about climate change as a threat multiplier for 
the international security landscape?*
Climate change acts as a "threat multiplier" by exacerbating other 
security risks, from terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, mass 
migration and other preconditions of human desperation. When people lack 
adequate food and water, exacerbated by prolonged droughts, water 
scarcity, extreme weather events and sea level rise, they will seek to 
fulfill their immediate human needs by either fleeing into the hands of 
terrorists or migrating towards perceived safety. In this way, climate 
risks multiply other threats we already face.

Considering climate change as a threat multiplier prompts us to 
integrate climate risks throughout the international security planning 
framework, from risk assessment and characterization, to consequence 
management and disaster relief. Rather than isolating (or denying) 
climate risks from other security risks, the "threat multiplier" 
framework opens up new avenues of analysis, predictive risk assessment, 
response and action.

*What value does a national security framework bring to climate change 
that other frameworks might not? How has the field of climate security 
changed since your CNA report?*
First of all, it's important to note that the national security 
implications of climate change are not a "framework" in a communications 
sense. These risks are actually already happening, and we should deal 
with them as we do other national security risks. Nobody asks, for 
example, about how the national security framework brings value to 
terrorism or nuclear proliferation concerns. They are simply accepted as 
national security risks, and climate change should be as well. 
Acknowledging these real climate security risks enables clear-eyed 
thinking about some of the most serious risks from climate change. It 
also enables citizens who do not identify as environmentalists to 
appreciate the risks of climate change in a national security context. 
Furthermore, climate security risk assessment enables militaries to 
assess climate risk to operations and installations, to training and to 
capacity-building, and then to develop climate resilient responses for 
military operations, training, equipment and installations.

The CNA report launched the field of climate security, which did not 
previously exist. This report gave birth to a whole new field of 
research and analysis on climate security risks and enabled a new 
generation of climate security professionals to emerge. Their work is 
now integrating various dimensions of climate and security risks into 
the thinking and practice of a wide range of disciplines.
*
**What is the connection between climate change, water security, and 
national security? In what ways might climate change force us to 
reconsider traditional notions of national security in this context?*
Climate change as a "threat multiplier" will exacerbate already-scarce 
water and food resources (combined with population growth in some 
regions and other factors) and could exacerbate security threats, 
particularly where institutions and governance are weak or lacking. This 
causes the US to focus on new or additional areas, thereby stretching 
our defense resources. In addition, having to use our military resources 
for humanitarian purposes post-disasters at home and around the globe 
also stretches our limited resources.

Moreover, to date, more cooperation over resources has occurred than 
conflict. However, the impacts of climate change could mean that climate 
will be more of a "catalyst for conflict" over time, as CNA's MAB has 
noted in a 2014 report that updates its 2007 findings. China controls 
the headwaters of many of Asia's most important rivers. China's demand 
for water continues to grow with its population and economic 
development. It could be in a position to monopolize key water resources 
in Asia in the future. These resources are made even more scarce by dams 
that divert upstream waters from downstream riparian users in the lesser 
developed countries of Bangladesh, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and others, 
as well as by overuse of existing groundwater. China also faces 
significant climate risks, from prolonged droughts in the north to sea 
level rise, extreme weather events and inundation in the south. China 
could, in the future, both weaponize its water power by exerting further 
leverage over its downstream neighbors and geoengineer the climate 
through various emerging technologies that will enable it to reduce 
climate impacts to its people. In other words, Asia could become the 
frontline for the offensive or asymmetric use of climate engineering 
technologies for national purposes.

*What is the most exciting project you are currently working on, and how 
will it impact our understanding of climate security?*
I work on a variety of projects, all of which are very exciting. One of 
them involves the Woodrow Wilson Center's Polar Institute where we are 
exploring geostrategic change in the Arctic, from the potential for 
major powers to compete for both resources and influence in the region 
of the world changing fastest from climate change to the opportunity to 
develop resilient and sustainable Arctic infrastructure. The goal is 
both to better understand Arctic change from an integrated national 
security, science and policy perspective, and to help prepare people and 
institutions to operate in this region as it opens to greater human 
activity.

*What is the most important advice you could give to young scholars or 
practitioners of international politics?*
If you have a good idea, pursue it with passion and don't take no for an 
answer. But always work constructively with others to move concepts and 
actions forward. Recognize that sometimes, only in hindsight, do we see 
the fruits of our labor. Sustainable progress takes sustained personal 
investment.
https://climateandsecurity.org/2019/01/31/interview-with-sherri-goodman-a-responsibility-to-prepare/


[Classic, important college lecture - from 11 years ago]
*Climate Change: What We Know and What We Need to Learn*
University of California Television (UCTV)
Published on May 1, 2008
How is human activity changing the climate and what are the 
consequences? Is global warming the cause of more frequent droughts, 
stronger storms and less snow in the mountains? Lawrence Livermore 
National Laboratory Scientist Dave Bader explores what scientists know 
about  climate change and the research tools used to study the climate. 
Series: Science on Saturday [10/2006] [Science] [Show ID: 11544]
https://youtu.be/eXa_VxdplkI


*This Day in Climate History - Febuary 2, 2007 - from D.R. Tucker*
February 2, 2007: The 4th IPCC report is released.
http://youtu.be/rBHjVN0dn6A
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/conference-on-global-warming/
http://abcnews.go.com/International/video/global-warming-fault-2843769
http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/video/bleak-assessment-global-warming-2845826
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