[TheClimate.Vote] January 20, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

Sun Jan 20 08:17:11 EST 2019

/January 20, 2019/

[must hurry]
*Climate change: how long do we really have to save the planet from 
catastrophe?*
Scientists cannot seem to agree on the numbers, but there is a consensus 
on one thing: the human race is in imminent danger
Mainstream media also cause confusion, neglecting to connect 
increasingly chaotic weather patterns with human behaviour
- - -
On current trends, the first year in which we will exceed 1.5 degrees 
above the 1850 to 1900 average will probably fall in the 2020s. But 
because climate is weather-averaged over many years, it would be 
premature to regard this as the passing of the limit. The threshold is 
likely to be crossed during an El Niño, a period in which warm waters 
spread across the Pacific and temporarily boost the global surface 
temperature.

A reasonable definition is that we will cross the limit when the 
average, long-term temperature rise exceeds 1.5 degrees. Following 
current trajectories, this is likely to happen around 2040 – 
sufficiently close that many scientists and politicians have adopted a 
somewhat different definition of reaching the 1.5-degree limit. Almost 
all of the scenarios considered in the IPCC report involve getting the 
temperature rise back below the 1.5-degree threshold by 2100 after 
exceeding it by the middle of this century....
- -
Without a change of course, we are actually heading for a world that is 
3 or 4 degrees warmer, which could lead to seas rising more than 20 
metres. The big unknown is how long this will take. Because the planet's 
temperature is rising much faster now than it did during any recent warm 
periods, the past is not a good guide to our future.

The prevailing view is that it will take many centuries or millennia. 
IPCC projections are for sea levels to rise by between 0.3 and 0.8 
metres by 2100 in a world that is 1.5 degrees warmer, and by 0.5 metres 
to one metre by the end of the century if emissions continue increasing 
unchecked. If it remains warm, there will be bigger sea-level rises to 
come in the 22nd century and beyond.

Some scientists regard these projections as conservative. Antarctica is 
losing ice much faster than expected, and a 2016 study based on a 
computer model of its ice sheets suggests the seas could rise by up to 
three metres by 2100.

*How long do we have to turn things around?*
"Scientists say we have 12 years to save the world." That is the message 
many seem to have taken from the latest IPCC report – but that is not 
quite what the report says.

It is true that at the current rate of emissions we will exceed the 
report's "most likely" remaining carbon budget in about 12 years. But as 
we have seen, carbon budgets are set at the midpoints of wide ranges, 
and the 1.5-degree target itself is an arbitrary one.

We have also been here before. Climate-change deniers gleefully point 
out that we have already been told several times that there are just X 
years to save the planet. So focusing on arbitrary deadlines is perhaps 
not the best way to sum up the science.
https://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-magazine/long-reads/article/2182663/climate-change-how-long-do-we-really-have-save

[GAO]
*Government watchdog to State Department: quit ignoring climate change*
The State Department "has dropped the ball" on climate migration issues, 
the Government Accountability Office says.
Researchers, aid groups, and diplomats have been warning for years that 
climate change is a key driver behind the growing global crisis of 
migration and displacement.

The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre reported that there were 
24.2 million people displaced by climate and weather disasters in 2016. 
Last year, the World Bank estimated that number would rise to 143 
million people by the middle of the century if climate change is left 
unchecked.

These mass movements can in turn threaten fragile governments and 
economies, potentially leading to conflicts. Rising sea levels, drought, 
more severe weather, and extreme heat are already fueling famines and 
creating refugees.
- - -

Go behind the scenes. Chat with creators. Support Vox video. Become a 
member of the Vox Video Lab on YouTube today. (Heads up: You might be 
asked to sign in to Google first.)

And the consequences can ripple back to the United States. "The 
worsening of climate change effects around the world, particularly in 
low-income countries, may increase the number of people wanting to 
immigrate to the United States," the Government Accountability Office 
wrote in a report released Thursday...
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/1/18/18188177/gao-climate-migration-report-state-department
- - -
[GAO Report]
*CLIMATE CHANGE:*
*Activities of Selected Agencies to Address Potential Impact on Global 
Migration*
GAO-19-166: Published: Jan 17, 2019
https://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-19-166?utm_source=outreach&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=climate_migration

[Important study]
*'Sleepwalking into catastrophe': Extreme weather is biggest global risk 
in 2019*
Published: Jan 18, 2019
The World Economic Forum's annual report found climate change accounting 
for more than half of the Top 10 risks facing the world
- - -
The five key environmental risks the report tracks-- biodiversity loss, 
extreme weather events, failure of climate-change mitigation and 
adaptation, man-made disasters and natural disasters--are once again 
listed in the high-impact, high-likelihood category, which means experts 
are worried that they are increasing and will have a huge effect.
"Of all risks, it is in relation to the environment that the world is 
most clearly sleepwalking into catastrophe," said the report...
- - -
Ranking    Top 5 risks by likelihood
1. Extreme weather events
2. Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation
3. Major natural disasters (e.g. earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption, 
geomagnetic storms)
4. Massive incident of data fraud/theft
5. Large-scale cyberattacks
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sleepwalking-into-catastrophe-extreme-weather-is-biggest-global-risk-in-2019-2019-01-16

[Video Debunking the debunker- video debate]
*Response to Tony Heller*
potholer54
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLjkLPnIPPw

[Paul Beckwith 2nd video - huge weather disruptions]
*Status Report on our Abruptly Changing Climate: 2 of 2*
Paul Beckwith - Published on Jan 18, 2019
Here is an overdue chat on our abruptly changing climate. After a hiatus 
for chess study and competition and to recharge my internal batteries, I 
am refreshed and chomping at the bit, like the proverbial Energizer Bunny:)
I join-the-dots on extreme events like Australia's heat waves (50 C; 122 
F), eastern North America and European deep freezes, torrential rains in 
Europe and California, accelerating ice melt from Greenland and 
Antarctica releasing methane, and huge insect kills in near-equator 
rainforests.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkQqkrZ6_Dg

[Ocean warming]
*Multi Meter Sea Level Rise, Antarctic Sea Ice & Ice Melt Acceleration*
Climate State
Published on Jan 19, 2019
A pair of new studies released on Monday share a same ominous message -- 
that our planet's ice is melting at an alarming rate, which is bad news 
for global sea levels. https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/14/wo...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ooJiG9zHWKA

[video Real News Network]
*New Study Concludes Greenland Ice Sheet Is Melting Even In Winter*
The Real News Network - Published on Jan 17, 2019
Dr. Neil Fraser explains that warm water below the surface enters 
Greenland's fjords in winter-time
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7P5ActMUjZE

[television weathercaster convention]
*Weather and Climate Summit*
January 15-18, 2018
Breckenridge, CO
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJbieZaCt1igu6WSRGRfSJQ

[Tamino]
*The Oz Heat Distribution*
Posted on January 19, 2019 | Leave a comment
We've spoken before (as have many before us) of the fact that climate 
isn't just about the average, it's about the whole distribution (the 
probability distribution if you want to get technical).
We also emphasized that the tails of the distribution -- the 
probabilities for extreme values (very very cold or very very hot, if 
we're talking about temperature) can change profoundly when we shift the 
distribution left or right, without otherwise changing its shape; we 
illustrated this with July temperature in Moscow:
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2019/01/19/the-oz-heat-distribution/

[Important from DeSmogBlog]
*Never Underestimate the Power of Fossil Fueled Misinformation, Say Top 
Researchers*
By Graham Readfearn - Friday, January 18, 2019
Climate action advocates have underestimated the strength and 
sophistication of decades-long fossil fuel-funded misinformation 
campaigns and need a coordinated set of strategies to fight back, say 
leading academics.

Among those strategies, say the three researchers from Yale and Brown 
University, are promoting financial transparency, suing misinformers and 
their funders, and researching the vast networks of think tanks and 
front groups.

Writing in the journal Nature Climate Change, Yale University' 
professors Justin Farrell and Kathryn McConnell, together with Brown 
University's Professor Robert Brulle, say people working on responses to 
climate change "cannot afford to underestimate the economic influence, 
institutional complexity, strategic sophistication, financial 
motivation, and societal impact of the networks" behind climate 
misinformation campaigns.

Brulle, who is also an academic at Drexel University, told DeSmog that 
after conversations with leaders of environment groups and foundations, 
he had concluded "there is virtually no understanding of the nature or 
extent of misinformation efforts and organized efforts to stop climate 
action."

*Misinformation Ignored*
He said: "So in my opinion, the efforts to promote climate action are 
failing to take into account opposition efforts in their strategies. I 
can assure you that this is not the situation for the organized efforts 
to stop climate action -- which I call the climate countermovement."

Brulle and Farrell have each produced several major studies in leading 
academic journals on the funding and influence of the "climate 
countermovement" and its fossil fuel interests. In 2018, Brulle joined 
several academics in criticizing the United Nations Intergovernmental 
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for ignoring in a major report swaths of 
research and evidence on the impact of organized climate science denial.

In this most recent commentary, they lay out the pervasive nature of 
misinformation campaigns on climate change in the United States and how 
those campaigns captured Republicans.

Singled out in the paper are groups including the Heartland Institute, 
companies including oil giant Exxon, individuals like former Trump 
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) transition team members Steve 
Milloy and Myron Ebell, and the vast network of groups funded by 
billionaire Robert Mercer and the petrochemical businesses controlled by 
Charles Koch and brother David Koch.

But the bulk of the paper covers a suite of strategies that could be 
rolled out to combat the misinformation springing from these groups and 
individuals.

"Any political strategy to combat scientific misinformation must 
confront the partisan gridlock around climate change that has been 
institutionalized into the U.S. political process," the scholars write.

McConnell said: "The spread of climate misinformation is a political 
tool that is used to influence both the general public and key 
decision-makers -- and it's clear that these efforts have had major 
impacts on public opinion and public policy. To this end, climate action 
advocates would do well to pay close attention to climate denial."

Three approaches are suggested and detailed by McConnell, Brulle, and 
Farrell:

    - Deploy social science research and public vigilance to show how
    political processes are manipulated.
    - Encourage institutions to divest from fossil fuel corporations.
    - Target areas impacted by climate change where widespread public
    skepticism exists (such as Florida and Alaska).
    Inoculation

In addition, the researchers suggest using an emerging communications 
technique known as "inoculation" in which the public and policymakers 
are made aware of key misinformation techniques as myths are being busted.

Denial101x lecture on debunking myths and innoculation theory. 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfq0Xrgsn_4
They also pointed to the need for continued research into the "networks 
and mechanisms of scientific misinformation campaigns" that could help 
scientists defend themselves against "a rise in ad hominem attacks."

Brulle told DeSmog: "A first step in providing reliable and meaningful 
information that can aid the climate movement organizations and the 
foundation funders is to develop a research program on this organized 
effort to stop climate action.

"Right now, this research effort is based in a number of part-time, 
unfunded researchers, who all work independently and without an overall 
guiding research program.

"So the information developed is piecemeal, and sporadic. Developing a 
coherent and funded research program is a crucial research need."

Graphic showing fact-myth-fallacy structure to debunking climate change 
misinformation 
https://www.desmogblog.com/sites/beta.desmogblog.com/files/Denial101x-lectures-Fact-Myth-Fallacy-climate_creative-commons.png

Together with fossil fuel-backed public relations campaigns, research 
from Brulle has shown that environmental sectors are being massively 
outspent in lobbying efforts.

In research published in 2018, Brulle found that "environmental 
organizations and the renewable energy sector lobbying expenditures were 
dwarfed by a ratio of 10:1 by the spending of the sectors engaged in the 
supply and use of fossil fuels."

Brulle added: "I think it is pretty much impossible to determine the 
extent of delay in action that the climate countermovement has been able 
to cause. We can certainly say it has not been helpful, and has assisted 
in blocking action on climate change for over 30 years.

"To move forward in addressing climate action, understanding and 
addressing the climate countermovement is a critical component."
https://www.desmogblog.com/2019/01/18/climate-advocates-underestimate-power-fossil-fuel-misinformation-campaign-brulle?utm_source=dsb%20newsletter
- - -
[video on debunking misinformation - inoculation theory]
*UQx DENIAL101x 6.3.3.1 Flu Shots*
UQx Denial101x Making Sense of Climate Science Denial
Published on Jun 1, 2015
John Cook explains the most effective way to debunk misinformation: 
fight sticky myths with even stickier facts and structure your debunking 
argument in three parts: fact, then myth, then fallacy. Subtitles 
available: ENGLISH, SLOVENŠČINA (Slovenian)
About Denial101x:
Climate change is real, so why the controversy and debate? Learn to make 
sense of the science and to respond to climate change denial in 
Denial101x, a massive open online course (MOOC) from UQx and edX. 
Denial101x isn't just a MOOC about climate change; it's a MOOC about how 
people think about climate change.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfq0Xrgsn_4

[audio read of classic article from August 2018]
*He wrote a Story on the Worst Scenarios of Climate Change*
Climate State
Published on Aug 1, 2018
*The Uninhabitable Earth* is a New York magazine article by American 
journalist David Wallace-Wells published on July 9, 2017. The long-form 
article depicts a worst-case scenario of what might happen in the future 
due to global warming.
Famine, economic collapse, a sun that cooks us: What climate change 
could wreak -- sooner than you think.
By David Wallace-Wells
Release at NYMag The Uninhabitable Earth 
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html?gtm=bottom&gtm=bottom
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9RlqNKmP-A

[penultimate alarmism is exhausting, but valid]
*In 10-15 Years World May Hit 2C of Warming*
Climate State - Published on Apr 12, 2018
Back in 2011, a Cornell University research team first made the 
groundbreaking discovery that leaking methane from the shale gas
fracking boom could make burning fracked gas worse for the climate than 
coal. 
https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/04/11/climate-change-two-degree-warming-fracking-natural-gas-rush-ingraffea
Why a half-degree temperature rise is a big deal 
https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2458/why-a-half-degree-temperature-rise-is-a-big-deal/
Paris 1.5-2C target far from safe, say world-leading scientists 
http://www.climatecodered.org/2017/07/paris-15-2c-target-far-from-safe-say.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6j0y8ml74E

[Download the paper from AMS - American Meteorological Society]
*Explaining Extreme Events from a Climate Perspective*
This BAMS special report presents assessments of how human-caused 
climate change may have affected the strength and likelihood of 
individual extreme events.

The U.S. Northern Plains and East Africa droughts of 2017, floods in 
South America, China and Bangladesh, and heatwaves in China and the 
Mediterranean were all made more likely by human-caused climate change, 
according to new research published today in the Bulletin of the 
American Meteorological Society (BAMS).

The seventh edition of the report, Explaining Extreme Events in 2017 
from a Climate Perspective, also included analyses of ocean heat events, 
including intense marine heatwaves in the Tasman Sea off of Australia in 
2017 and 2018 that were "virtually  impossible" without human-caused 
climate change. Also included are analyses of Australian fires and 
Uruguay flooding.

This is the second year that scientists have identified extreme weather 
events that they said could not have happened without warming of the 
climate through human-induced climate change.
https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/explaining-extreme-events-from-a-climate-perspective/

*This Day in Climate History - January 20, 2011 - from D.R. Tucker*
January 21, 2011:
MSNBC cancels "Countdown with Keith Olbermann," one of the very few
cable news programs to feature strong criticism of climate-change
deniers.
http://youtu.be/pasaYEpw4Qg
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