[TheClimate.Vote] July 12, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Fri Jul 12 10:30:34 EDT 2019
/July 12, 2019/
[Live TV NBC]
*Watch Live: Radar tracks Tropical Storm Barry as it heads towards Gulf
Coast*
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMbR50ii73U
[newest candidate]
*Steyer Takes on Corporate Accountability for Climate Change in
Presidential Bid*
Billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer jumped into a crowded field of
Democratic presidential candidates this week, prompting the question of
whether he can lift climate change out of the shadows and into a major
campaign issue. With the Democratic National Committee desperately
dodging the idea of a climate-focused debate, and Washington Gov. Jay
Inslee failing to get much attention for his climate-action message,
Steyer at least brings the prospect of spending his ample resources to
amplify the issue. Also, Steyer is outspoken in calling out the fossil
fuel industry for its role in the crisis and the country's need to hold
it accountable. That adds an urgency to the message behind the growing
number of climate liability suits.
https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2019/07/09/tom-steyer-climate-change-corporations/
[Polar regions]
*Alaska Chokes on Wildfires as Heat Waves Dry Out the Arctic*
Fires are spreading farther north, burning more intensely and starting
earlier, in line with what scientists have warned would happen with
climate change.
By Bob Berwyn, *InsideClimate News*
Jul 11, 2019
Under the choking black smoke from the bog and forest fires in Siberia
and Alaska, it can feel like the Earth itself is burning. The normally
moist, black organic peat soil and lush forests have been drying, and
when they catch fire, they burn relentlessly.
Global warming has been thawing tundra and drying vast stretches of the
far-northern boreal forests, and it also has spurred more thunderstorms
with lightning, which triggered many of the fires burning in Alaska this
year, said Brian Brettschneider, a climate scientist with the
International Arctic Research Center who closely tracks Alaskan and
Arctic extreme weather.
So far this year, wildfires have scorched more than 1.2 million acres in
Alaska, making it one of the state's three biggest fire years on record
to this date, with high fire danger expected to persist in the weeks ahead.
- -
A region of Alaska about the size of California has been sizzling under
an intense, record-length heat wave for weeks. And it isn't just the
land that's warming: the northern coast is losing its sea ice about two
months earlier than average and ocean surface temperatures are as much
as 9 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in the Chukchi Sea. Across the state:
- For the first time in the 95-year record, the year-long
July-to-June average temperature for Alaska as a whole was above
freezing, showing the persistence of much warmer than average
temperatures over state.
- For the year to date, the Alaska statewide average temperature was
7.9F above average, according to NOAA's latest National State of the
Climate report.
- During the last 67 years, Anchorage saw a total of 17 days with a
temperature of 81F or above. This year, 81 was the average
temperature for a 12-day stretch in late June and early July,
Brettschneider posted on Twitter.
- On July 4, Anchorage hit 90F, breaking the city's all-time record
by 5 degrees.
In Anchorage this time of year, "our normal high is 66 (degrees
Fahrenheit), and today, it's already 74 or 75 degrees at 10:30 in the
morning," Brettschneider said via Skype on July 8.
Sitting outside in the morning in a T-shirt and sweating is not normal
in Anchorage, he said. "We keep our doors and windows closed at night to
keep the smoke out. This morning I got up and it was 80 degrees in the
house," he said.
- -
The large Arctic fires in June could be a sign of a climate tipping
point, said Thomas Smith, a climate researcher at the London School of
Economics and Political Science.
Responding to a post about the record Arctic wildfire activity on
Twitter, Smith wrote that if temperatures stay above a certain
temperature threshold long enough, fuels dry out and become ignitable.
"It really is unprecedented, a word we should not use lightly," he
wrote. "It may be that in most previous years, temperatures have never
been warm enough to drive off moisture from the winter frost and
snowpack. The ground is likely covered in mosses that act as a sponge,
staying moist all summer long before freezing again in winter. But now
that sponge is drying out."
Amid all of this, scientists in Alaska are worried about the future of
scientific research at the region's universities--the state legislature
is struggling to get enough votes by Friday to override a veto by the
Republican governor that would effectively slash state funding for the
university system by 41 percent.
*June's Unprecedented Smoke & Fire Intensity*
There are seasonal and regional nuances, and natural climate cycles are
also a factor, but wildfire experts in Alaska are generally expecting
conflagrations to increase through at least 2100, said Scott Rupp,
deputy director of the International Arctic Research Center.
A 2016 paper in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
showed that human-caused climate change increased the risk of extreme
fire seasons in Alaska by 34 percent to 60 percent by drying out fuels,
he said. Trees, grass, shrubs and tundra are more flammable with warmer
temperatures if the warmth is not offset by wetter conditions.
"A rule of thumb is that, for every 1 degree Celsius temperature
increase, you need a 15 percent increase in precipitation to offset the
drying effects," he said. "In interior Alaska we have seen increases of
2-3 degrees Celsius over the past 40 years." Precipitation has not
increased enough to offset the warming, so fire conditions are
worsening, he said.
Chart: Arctic Wildfire Emissions Spike
https://insideclimatenews.org/sites/default/files/styles/icn_centered_medium/public/alaska-temps-070819_nasa-earth-observatory.png?itok=1hJ0q3Bk
A European climate-monitoring satellite this week confirmed that the
recent levels of smoke emissions and fire intensity in Alaska and
throughout the Arctic were unprecedented for June, said Mark Parrington,
a senior scientist with the ECMWF and Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring
Service.
Reinforcing the link between extreme heat and wildfires, the Copernicus
monitoring shows that the June wildfires in Siberia started burning in a
region that was a global hotspot at the time--during Earth's warmest
June on record, Parrington said.
"I am concerned about how bad it can potentially get in terms of the
size of the fires and the impact of smoke pollution in the Arctic, which
is often thought of as a remote and pristine environment," Parrington
said. "We know that the Arctic climate has been changing at a much
faster rate than the rest of the world, and it is worrying to think that
we could now be witnessing the effect of this directly in the Arctic
Circle."
New Threats to Alaska & Places Not Used to Fires
Several recent studies have shown serious health risks from wildfire
smoke that increasingly hangs in noxious shrouds over fire-prone regions
like Southern Alaska...
- -
"We passed a million acres, and the potential for continued extreme fire
activity will be sticking with us for the foreseeable future," Rupp
said. "Fairbanks in particular is surrounded by fire, and residents are
dealing with the worst air quality anywhere on the globe. That is likely
not to change for some time."
Around the world, global warming has clearly contributed to an increase
in extreme fires in most biomes, from tropical rainforests to boreal
evergreen forests, and they are often linked with heat waves, said
University of Tasmania fire geographer David Bowman.
That poses new fire threats to places that aren't used to seeing much
fire at all, including temperate mid-latitude forests near regions with
dense populations, as shown by unusual wildfires in places like Germany
during last summer's European heat wave and drought.
"We crossed the line in the last few years," said Bowman. "It's hard to
keep pace with the growth of unusually extreme fires burning across
South America, Australia and western North America. Fires are starting
to burn more in places with vegetation that isn't by nature highly
combustible."
Bowman analyzed the growth of Earth's most intense fires between 2002
and 2013 in a study showing a close link between disastrous fires and
extreme droughts and heat waves. It projected that the number of days
conducive to extreme fires would increase by 20 to 50 percent globally
by mid-century.*
*
*Oceans Heat, Sea Ice--It's all Connected*
It's not only land areas that are heating up. The ocean around Alaska
has also been running a fever for months, and it's all connected.
Summer ocean heat waves contribute land heat waves; in the fall, warmer
ocean and land temperatures delay the freeze-up of ice near the shore,
which leads to even more heat buildup in the ocean, part of the death
spiral of the Arctic climate system as we know it, now headed toward an
uncertain future, according to scientists.
The changes in ocean temperatures and sea ice extent likely represent a
climate shift for Alaska, said Rick Thoman, with the International
Arctic Research Center.
"But there's no reason to think that we're at a new equilibrium," he
said. He likens it to a five-year-old on an escalator: "The climate will
likely feature big swings all the while trending up. Sure, the 5-year
can run up or down and so get to the top faster or slower, but in the
end the escalator 'wins.'"
Rick Thoman Tweet on Alaska temperature trends
More directly, the warm ocean temperatures have resulted in significant
die-offs of large numbers of animals in Western Alaska, Thoman said. The
reports of dead fish, marine mammals and birds are piling up on the
Local Environmental Observer network, a citizen science database that
helps resource agencies track impacts in far-flung locations across the
vast state.
Kotzebue, a coastal town in Northwestern Alaska, has reported above
average temperatures for more than 112 days in a row, and there's no
doubt warm ocean waters are influencing those readings, said Mark
Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
"It's a two-way street. Fires are linked to warming, but fires also
deposit dark soot on the ocean and hastens sea ice melt. Fire also
alters landscape to hasten thaw of permafrost. And the permafrost is not
coming back," he said.
Thoman added, "In many areas, it is clear we've crossed thresholds and
the change is abrupt, for example multiple aspects (extent, thickness,
volume) of sea ice. Given the amount of heat going into the ocean, it's
not physically reasonable to expect the system to 'go back' for any
length of time."
Blows to Universities & Alaskan Ways of Life
The spiraling cycle of climate impacts is bad enough, but Alaska is also
facing a political attack on its science institutions, said Uma Bhatt,
chair of the atmospheric sciences department at the University of Alaska
Fairbanks. Gov. Mike Dunleavy's budget battle with the state legislature
could result in big cuts to university funding, including climate research.
"What keeps me up at night is that the climate problem is a complex
problem. It's not just a science problem, it's a social problem and a
political problem," Bhatt said. "I should be doing climate research
rather than worrying about whether the university will be standing."
Concerns about climate change impacts are growing in the state, she said.
"I talk to a lot of people in rural areas, and they are concerned about
how ecosystem services are changing. There is a notable population in
Alaska who live a subsistence lifestyle, hunting and fishing, and that
is changing. It's changing fast, within a generation, so the knowledge
about things like hunting in the coastal ice will have to shift very
quickly," she said.
Even if people and communities can at least partly adapt, some things
will disappear forever.
"You can never get back that plants and animals that will go extinct
because of global warming," she said.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/11072019/arctic-wildfires-alaska-climate-change-heat-wave-2019-university-funding
- - -
[from WILDFIRE TODAY]
*Wildfires produce heavy smoke in Alaska, Canada, and the Midwest*
Wildfires in Alaska and Ontario are creating large quantities of smoke
that is affecting not only those areas but Yukon, British Columbia,
Quebec, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and the Midwestern states. Tuesday
morning the smoke is unusually noticeable in Milwaukee, Grand Rapids,
Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, and Toronto.
The NOAA map above shows the extent of smoke at 6:48 a.m. MDT July 9.
The one below produced by the Canadian government is the forecast for 6
p.m. MDT July 10 but only covers the area within the black border.
map:
https://i0.wp.com/wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/US_Smoke_648amMDT_7-9.jpg?ssl=1
https://wildfiretoday.com/2019/07/09/wildfires-produce-heavy-smoke-in-alaska-canada-and-the-midwest/
- - -
[GIZMODO report]
*Alaska's Wildfire Season Is Exploding, Spreading Smoke Across the State*
Maddie Stone
Historic, record-breaking heat isn't the only environmental malaise
that's gripped Alaska this summer. So has wildfire smoke.
An incredible satellite image taken on July 8 shows smoke spreading far
and wide across Alaska as a spate of hot, dry weather causes the state's
wildfire season to kick into high gear. Dense smoke advisories and red
flag fire warnings are currently in effect across interior Alaska and on
the Kenai Peninsula, while concentrations of particulate matter, which
can lodge in the lungs and cause breathing problems, have surged to
dangerous levels around Fairbanks and surrounding communities. Alaska
Center for Climate Assessment and Policy climatologist Rick Thoman,
who's based in Fairbanks, said that visibility is currently about a mile
and described the air quality as "terrible," noting that one air quality
station notched a particulate matter reading of over 700 this morning.
Levels over 250 are considered hazardous to human health.
"You can look right at the Sun and it's that blood orange color" Thoman
said.
All the smoke is the result of an explosive intensification of Alaska's
wildfire season over the past week. Between July 3 and 10, more than
600,000 acres burned statewide, more than doubling the year-to-date burn
total which now sits at 1.28 million acres. And it's only July 10.
Thoman said he'd give it a 50-50 chance that the state crosses the
2-million-acre-burned threshold by the end of the year, and he wouldn't
rule out a 3-million-acre year, which would place 2019 among the top
fire seasons on record.
"It is now unquestionably a big [fire] year," Thoman said.
[Graph of cumulative acreage burned
https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--QYM4nlP9--/c_scale,f_auto,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/bkaeqb49jc850fs00jtp.png]
The 41 large fires the National Interagency Fire Center is currently
tracking in Alaska include the Swan Lake fire south of Anchorage, which
has topped 100,000 acres in size but is getting closer to containment,
and the Hess Creek fire northwest of Fairbanks, now the largest fire in
the U.S. at over 149,000 acres. Sparked by lightning on June 21, the
fire has expanded dramatically on the heels of the last week's hot
weather and remains entirely out of control.
These fires and many others are being fueled by a week of
record-shattering heat, which, after the second-warmest June in Alaska's
history, has turned much of interior and southern part of the state into
a tinderbox. Merritt Turetsky, a fire ecologist at the University of
Guelph who studies the ecosystems Alaska and northern Canada, explained
that very warm, dry weather following a period of "pretty ample
lightning activity" has created the ideal conditions for fire to spread.
And even though temperatures are forecast to fall from record-breaking
levels back to simply warm by late week, Turetsky expects the extreme
fire activity will persist--in part because of deeper layers of the
forest floor have become very dry.
"Because of the intense heat wave we've had, those deep duff layers
[layers of moss and lichen] are now dry," Turetsky said. "It's going to
take significant rainfall to wet those layers up. And I think it's
pretty unlikely to happen."
Thoman also wasn't optimistic about the fire season letting up soon.
"The heat wave in south Alaska is breaking and temperatures will likely
tail off a bit in the interior with more thundershowers expected, but
we're going from much above normal to above normal," he said. "And with
the return of thunderstorms and the ground very dry, the fuels are very
receptive [to burning]. The fear is that things will get much worse
before they get better."
Alaska has always had big fire seasons, but with climate change turning
up the heat on the state, scientists expect to see more of them. They're
also worried about the very nature of fire season changing and what it
could mean for the climate if, say, we start to see more deep-burning
fires that torch carbon that's been sequestered for thousands of years.
And Turetsky said, researchers are watching for ecological shifts as
fire becomes more prevalent in ecosystems that didn't use to burn often,
like the currently ablaze Kenai Peninsula.
"We know that these large fire seasons and extreme fire weather
conditions are on the rise," Turetsky said. "This is part of the
consequence of climate change."
https://earther.gizmodo.com/alaskas-wildfire-season-is-exploding-spreading-smoke-a-1836244513
[From Mother Jones magazine]
*It's the End of the World as They Know It*
The distinct burden of being a climate scientist
Story by David Corn - July 8, 2019
- - -
It's hardly surprising that researchers who spend their lives exploring
the dire effects of climate change might experience emotional
consequences from their work. Yet, increasingly, Cobb, Shukla, and
others in the field have begun publicly discussing the psychological
impact of contending with data pointing to a looming catastrophe,
dealing with denialism and attacks on science, and observing government
inaction in the face of climate change. "Scientists are talking about an
intense mix of emotions right now," says Christine Arena, executive
producer of the docuseries Let Science Speak, which featured climate
researchers speaking out against efforts to silence or ignore science.
"There's deep grief and anxiety for what's being lost, followed by rage
at continued political inaction, and finally hope that we can indeed
solve this challenge. There are definitely tears and trembling voices.
They know this deep truth: They are on the front lines of contending
with the fear, anger, and perhaps even panic the rest of us will have to
deal with."...
While Americans feel "an increasing alarm" about climate change,
according to a survey conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change
Communication, scientists have been coping with this troubling data for
decades--and the grinding emotional effects from that research are
another cost of global warming that the public has yet to fully
confront. Before you ask, there is no scientific consensus regarding the
impact of climate research on the scientists performing it. It hasn't
been studied in a systematic way. ...
But in a single study, two years ago, Lesley Head and Theresa Harada,
two geography scientists in Australia, published a paper examining
"emotional management strategies" used by a sample of Australian climate
scientists. Head and Harada found that daily immersion in the subject
caused anxiety for the scientists, exacerbated by the difficulty of
"protecting the psyche from the subject matter of climate change." The
scientists' thinking was more often "pessimistic than optimistic," and
they tended to use "diverse distancing practices" to "separate
themselves from emotions." They generally said they enjoyed their work,
but Head notes that "it's hard to imagine it's not something that could
cause manifestations down the track. For the most part, these academics
are well-established in their jobs and already have demonstrated
resilience in a competitive system. But you can't help but wonder what
the burden is doing to people that may or may not be visible."
Are scientists, then, canaries in a psychological coal mine? Is
understanding their grief important because their anxiety could become
more widespread within the general population? "That's why," Head
explains, "I chose them as a research sample."
Put another way, climate scientists often resemble Sarah Connor of the
Terminator franchise, who knows of a looming catastrophe but must
struggle to function in a world that does not comprehend what is coming
and, worse, largely ignores the warnings of those who do. "An accurate
representation" of the Connor comparison, one scientist darkly notes,
"would have more crying and wine."...
- - -
"I'm always thinking about it," he says. "That can be a burden. Whenever
friends talk about flying off to vacation, I feel compelled to point out
the large carbon cost to flying. I'd like to take a vacation from
thinking about it. I'm not sure that is psychologically possible."...
- - -
Sarah Myhre, a former senior research associate at the University of
Washington's School of Oceanography, experiences "a profound level of
grief on a daily basis because of the scale of the crisis that is
coming, and I feel I'm doing all I can but it's not enough," she says.
"I don't have clinical depression. I have anxiety exacerbated by the
constant background of doom and gloom of science. It's not stopping me
from doing my work, but it's an impediment." She tried anti-anxiety
medication, which didn't improve things, so she cut back on caffeine.
She tries not to think too much about the future that awaits her
five-year-old son....
- - -
Jacquelyn Gill, a paleontologist at the University of Maine who co-hosts
a podcast on climate change called Warm Regards, says she's "not
depressed but angry, all the time, and anger can be empowering or
debilitating. I swing between both. Being constantly angry is
exhausting." But, she adds, it takes a certain resilience to be a
scientist in America: "There are so few jobs, so few grants. You're
always dealing with rejection. You have to have a built-in ability to
say 'fuck it.'"...
- - -
Katharine Wilkinson, who has a Ph.D. in geography and the environment,
is vice president for communication and engagement at Project Drawdown,
a group of scientists and activists that assembles proposed climate
change solutions. She makes a distinction between denialism and
bystanderism, which takes the form of people saying "they care about it"
but not engaging in meaningful action: "That's when I want to shake
people and say, 'You know how little time we have?'" She has noticed
that almost everyone in her line of work seems "to have one dark emotion
that is dominant. For some, it's anger or rage. For me, it's deep
grief--having eyes wide open to what is playing out in our world, and we
have a lukewarm response to it. There is no way for me not to have a
broken heart most days."
For several years, Eric Holthaus, a meteorologist-turned journalist, has
written about his own efforts to contend with climate change–induced
depression. "I lose sleep over climate change almost every single
night," he wrote last year. "I can't remember how long this has been
happening, but it's been quite a while, and it's only getting worse. I
confess: I need help." Holthaus went to see a counselor and, as he put
it, the therapist "seemed unprepared for my emotional crisis. His simple
advice was, 'Do what you can.'"...
- - -
She finds it painful to watch "scientific colleagues standing on the
sidelines being silent" and not participating in the political fray over
climate change. With her expertise undervalued generally, she observes,
"I feel like I'm walking around in an isolation chamber." Kalmus notes
that when he moved into climate change science, "I felt totally
alienated from the people around me. My parents didn't get it. My
friends didn't want to talk about it. Other graduate students didn't
want to talk about it…It was a very weird disconnected feeling." About a
year ago, Shukla and her partner decided not to have children out of a
concern about contributing to climate change. "I feel uncomfortable
discussing this with colleagues," she says. "It seems nihilistic." She
avoids conversations in which she might have to explain this decision,
which further exacerbates her "sense of isolation."...
- - -
"I still haven't figured out a good venue for talking about this.
Scientists are not trained to discuss how data makes us feel. They are
trained to quantify and evaluate and communicate it with clarity to our
colleagues." Perhaps scientists discussing their distress is a good
first step: "Once we figure out how to talk about this with each other,
maybe we can figure out how best to talk to the public. To pretend we
are Vulcans without emotions and are perfect machines makes the problem
worse."
Are these scientists experiencing the Cassandra Dilemma: seeing the
potential calamity ahead yet not being heeded by much of society? That
could certainly throw anyone into a psychological tailspin and cause
them to wonder, what's the damn point? Yet Cobb notes the goal is to
avoid such despair: "The way I see it, my role is to provide hope…And
right before folks decide whether they're going to care or not, whether
it's worth the fight…they will likely look to those of us who were
proven correct, who have always had their facts straight."
But the despair experienced by some scientists might have a benefit.
"More scientists are bringing their emotions and hearts to the forefront
of their work--getting bolder, more impassioned, more provocative," says
Christine Arena, the producer of the docuseries on climate change. "In a
way, this collective grief is making their outreach more effective."
Katharine Wilkinson points out, "Right now, we prioritize technical
training in science and policy. But the tools of the trade will become
increasingly emotional and psychological." At a recent panel discussion,
she recalls, she blurted out, "I have no child and I have one dog, and
thank god he'll be dead in 10 years." Afterward, people asked Wilkinson
if she truly believed that. "The truth is, I do," she says. "And it's
only going to get more intense--the emotional nature of this work--as
climate change happens and the necessary actions become more urgent."
https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2019/07/weight-of-the-world-climate-change-scientist-grief/
*This Day in Climate History - July 12, 2013- from D.R. Tucker*
July 12, 2013: USA Today reports:
"U.S. energy supplies will likely face more severe disruptions
because of climate change and extreme weather, which have already
caused blackouts and lowered production at power plants, a
government report warned Thursday.
"What's driving these vulnerabilities? Rising temperatures, up 1.5
degrees Fahrenheit in the last century, and the resulting sea level
rise, which are accompanied by drought, heat waves, storms and
wildfires, according to the U.S. Department of Energy."
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/07/11/climate-change-energy-disruptions/2508789/
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