[TheClimate.Vote] July 18, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Thu Jul 18 09:41:03 EDT 2019
/July 18, 2019/
[Heatwave]
More than half the US experiencing dangerous heat wave
*ABC News - Published on Jul 17, 2019*
In 1995, a heat wave in Chicago killed more than 700 people; emergency
rooms are on alert, bracing for an influx of heat-related emergencies.
WATCH THE FULL EPISODE OF 'WORLD NEWS TONIGHT': https://bit.ly/2GhMy6x
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99F1lP9QXfY
[EuroNews Heatwave in Europe]
*Europe could experience another heatwave next week*
After a brief spell of respite from a scorching heatwave that gripped
Europe last month, projections show that temperatures are likely to soar
once again next week in areas including France, Germany, Austria, the
UK, Norway, the Netherlands Spain, and Portugal.
Meteo France, the country's national weather agency, said on Wednesday
that we could be heading towards a second heatwave, but that forecasts
were not yet definitive....
https://www.euronews.com/2019/07/17/europe-could-experience-another-heatwave-next-week
[International heat warning]
*Red Cross to World's Cities: Here's How to Prevent Heat Wave Deaths*
The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies put
out a 96-page guidebook designed to help city officials prepare for heat
waves. It repeatedly points out that heat waves are predictable,
sometimes days and weeks in advance, and that city officials, and,
sometimes private employers, can take steps to save lives.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/16/climate/red-cross-heat-waves.html
- - -
[Download the 96 page document ]
*Heatwave Guide For Cities*
Introduction
The impacts of extreme heat are deadly, on the rise globally and
preventable. In recent years, heatwaves have broken temperature records
and led to the deaths of thousands of people. The 2003 European heatwave
killed more than 70,000 people, and the 2015 heatwave in India
reportedly killed over 2,500 people.1 These are likely underestimates
since deaths from heatwaves are often not attributed to the heatwave,
but to illnesses that are made worse by heat, such as heart disease...
- - -
*HOW TO USE THIS GUIDE*
This practical guide is designed with, and for, people working in city
government to understand, reduce the risk of, and respond to, heatwaves
in their cities. The guide provides information and recommendations for
technical staff within city government, including on: working with
partners to understand city-specific heatwave risks; operational
approaches to prepare for an imminent heatwave; response strategies to
reduce human harm during a heatwave; and ways to learn from a heatwave
that has just ended. Case studies from cities around the world are
included in this guide to highlight effective urban heat adaptation
strategies, including early warning systems, climate-sensitive designs
and public information campaigns. Throughout each chapter there are
recommended actions that can be taken and online resources for more
detailed guidance on heatwave risks...
- - -
*IMPACTS OF A HEATWAVE*
Heatwaves impact different aspects of life in a city including human
health, surrounding nature, critical infrastructure, the economy and
essential services. While this guide focuses on the impacts of heat
on human health in cities, it is important to know that there are
other impacts such as those on water availability and agricultural
production in rural areas.
*DIRECT IMPACTS*
Exposure to extreme heat can lead to dehydration, heat exhaustion,
heat stroke, loss of consciousness and other medical emergencies.
Heatwaves can also exacerbate pre-existing conditions such as
cardiovascular disease and respiratory illnesses and have deadly
consequences. Extreme heat can also directly affect infrastructure,
for example, by causing road surfaces to melt, making them
inaccessible or unsafe. In India during a heatwave in 2016 the heat
softened the tarmac on the roads making it difficult for people to
cross them.
*INDIRECT IMPACTS*
In addition to the direct impacts on human health, heatwaves stretch
existing health systems by increasing in the number of emergency
hospital admissions. Heatwaves also impact the city economy as well
as the provision of essential services by reducing the number of
hours outdoor workers can be employed safely; reducing productivity
in offices without adequate cooling; and impacting sectors such as
tourism. In addition, physical infrastructure such as energy
systems, water storage, delivery and treatment, and transport are
affected by extreme heat both directly and indirectly. For example,
demands for water and electricity tend to increase during a
heatwave, straining existing systems and potentially leading to
shortages.
https://www.climatecentre.org/downloads/files/IFRCGeneva/RCCC%20Heatwave%20Guide%202019%20A4%20RR%20ONLINE%20copy.pdf
[21C, that's about 70 degrees F]
*'Quite phenomenal': Arctic heatwave hits most northerly settlement in
world*
'It's an absolute record, we've never seen that before,' says Canadian
meteorologist ...
Canada's weather agency confirmed on Tuesday that temperatures in Alert,
Nunavut, peaked at 21C at the weekend - far exceeding the July average
for the area of around 5C.
Overnight temperatures on Sunday remained above 15C; again, well in
excess of nighttime lows that usually hover around freezing in a
settlement that lies less than 900km from the North Pole...
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/arctic-heatwave-canada-climate-change-temperature-record-alert-nunavut-alaska-a9008181.html
[opinion and report]
*What 2019's Hottest June Ever Recorded Says About the Climate Crisis*
Hint -- It's accelerating.
- - -
What all this data means is that we have now turned the ratchet of
climate crisis at least once. A set of serious impacts are now locked
in. Indeed, we are seeing them. But if we keep burning fossil fuels and
turn the ratchet again, it gets much worse from here on out.
https://robertscribbler.com/2019/07/16/what-2019s-hottest-june-ever-recorded-says-about-the-climate-crisis/
[July currently on pace to be the hottest month ever recorded on Earth.
Hottest July and hottest month ever.]
[Methane problem]
*Atmospheric Methane Levels Are Going Up--And No One Knows Why*
Jonathan Mingle
- - -
These air samples--collected at observatories in Hawaii, Alaska,
American Samoa, and Antarctica, and from tall towers, small aircraft,
and volunteers on every continent--have been coming to Boulder for more
than four decades, as part of one of the world's longest-running
greenhouse gas monitoring programs. The air in the flasks shows that the
concentration of methane in the atmosphere had been steadily rising
since 1983, before leveling off around 2000. "And then, boom, look at
how it changes here," Dlugokencky says, pointing at a graph on his
computer screen. "This is really an abrupt change in the global methane
budget, starting around 2007."
The amount of methane in the atmosphere has been increasing ever since.
And nobody really knows why. What's more, no one saw it coming. Methane
levels have been climbing more steeply than climate experts anticipated,
to a degree "so unexpected that it was not considered in pathway models
preparatory to the Paris Agreement," as Dlugokencky and several
coauthors noted in a recently published paper...
- - -
Two new studies published in February seem to reinforce the urgency of
plugging leaks. In their recent paper, Dlugokencky and colleagues
concluded that, regardless of whether it's due to a changing sink or
changing tropical wetlands, the renewed growth in methane scrambles
plans to meet the target of staying below two degrees of warming over
preindustrial levels--the target agreed to by nations gathered in Paris
in 2015. Methane's wild climb leaves much less room--and less time--in
our global emissions budget than we expected to have.
Another new study, however, offers some measure of hope, citing modeling
that shows that reducing anthropogenic methane emissions can still
offset the "natural" leakage that the thawing Arctic will produce under
warmer temperatures. If true, it would suggest that a disastrous
feedback loop--in which human-driven greenhouse gas emissions melt the
planet's permafrost, turning it from a vast carbon storage unit into a
huge new source of planet-warming methane, driving further
warming--might yet be averted. But scientists also say the time
available for avoiding that runaway-train scenario is quickly disappearing.
"The bottom line," says Canadell, "is that methane is going up, and it
doesn't look like that will stop anytime soon."
https://www.wired.com/story/atmospheric-methane-levels-are-going-up-and-no-one-knows-why/
[Calm stories about water and resources from Climate One]
*The Land of Dreams and Drought**
*Climate One
Streamed live and posted 7-17-2019
Cycles of drought and rain have shaped California life since John
Steinbeck's writing seared the state's water woes into national
consciousness. Amplified by climate change, California and other western
states now experience regular weather whiplash, careening between record
drought and rainfall every few years.
In his new book The Dreamt Land: Chasing Water and Dust Across
California, author Mark Arax reveals the tumultuous history behind the
myth of abundance in the Golden State. LA Times reporter Diana Marcum
and water expert Faith Kearns explore the complex intersections between
drought, climate change, and life in rural California. Can a decades-old
distribution system meet the water needs of the future? Will redirecting
rivers, drilling deeper wells, and building higher dams quench
California's demand for water? How will the state's robust agricultural
economy -- one that produces two-thirds of the country's produce and
nuts year-round -- survive the next record-breaking drought?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vsfuh-zCPfg
[BBC acts like FOX in its taunting of XR]
*Dr. Rupert Read | BBC Radio 4 Today | Extinction Rebellion*
Extinction Rebellion
Published on Jul 17, 2019
17.07.2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIBxjdMECqg
[CAL FIRE TV published July 10, 2019 from Wildfire Today]
*"Into the Fire", a new film about the Camp Fire*
The fire burned through Paradise, California November 8, 2018
The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection has released a
new 17-minute film about the 2018 Camp Fire, the blaze that killed 85
people, blackened 153,336 acres, and destroyed 18,804 structures.
It is titled Into the Fire: The First Hours of the Camp Fire, and was
uploaded to YouTube Wednesday.
https://wildfiretoday.com/2019/07/14/into-the-fire-a-new-film-about-the-camp-fire/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7OUG_6QCG0
[And will only grow larger]
*California's Wildfires Are 500 Percent Larger Due to Climate Change*
"Each degree of warming causes way more fire than the previous degree of
warming did. And that's a really big deal."
Robinson Meyer - Jul 16, 2019
- -
Californians may feel like they're enduring an epidemic of fire. The
past decade has seen half of the state's 10 largest wildfires and seven
of its 10 most destructive fires, including last year's Camp Fire, the
state's deadliest wildfire ever.
A new study, published this week in the journal Earth's Future, finds
that the state's fire outbreak is real--and that it's being driven by
climate change. Since 1972, California's annual burned area has
increased more than fivefold, a trend clearly attributable to the
warming climate, according to the paper.
The trend is dominated by fires like the Mendocino Complex Fire--huge
blazes that start in the summer and feed mostly on timberland. Over the
past five decades, these summertime forest fires have increased in size
by roughly 800 percent. This effect is so large that it is driving the
state's overall increase in burned area...
- -
Since the early 1970s, summers in Northern California have warmed by
about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit (1.8 degrees Celsius) on average. A few
degrees may not sound like much, but heat has an exponential
relationship with forest fire.
"Each degree of warming causes way more fire than the previous degree of
warming did. And that's a really big deal,"...
- - -
And it matters that heat is prompting this 800 percent explosion in
forest fire--because among the many ways climate change might be messing
with the environment, extra heat is among the simplest and most obvious.
"Heat is the most clear result of human-caused climate change," Williams
said.
In other words, the climate models say that Northern Californian summers
should be getting hotter as climate change takes hold. And that's
exactly what the data show--and exactly what's driving an unprecedented
outbreak of forest fires...
- - -
Williams recently asked some of his students to simulate the survival
of the state's forests forward to the end of the century under a
worst-case carbon-pollution scenario. They couldn't do it. "It's
basically impossible," he said. The state gets so hot that "in the
2070s, you have individual years where a quarter to a half of all the
forest area in California is burning."
But that couldn't happen: By then, there will be no more forest left to
burn. Fires will have finished clearing all of California's woods. The
once-mighty Californian forest will have given way to scrub, grassland,
and desert--types of ecosystem that can rebound quickly after a
wildfire, or that never burn at all.
It's not a foregone conclusion that all of California's timberlands will
vanish, Williams said. It depends on how we reduce carbon pollution now
and in the years to come. The future of the state's forests, it seems,
is up to us.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/07/climate-change-500-percent-increase-california-wildfires/594016/
- - -
[Source material - The worst case is RCP 8.5]
*Are We Living Through Climate Change's Worst-Case Scenario?*
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/01/rcp-85-the-climate-change-disaster-scenario/579700/
- - -
[Earth's Future]
*Observed impacts of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire in California*
A. Park Williams, John T. Abatzoglou, Alexander Gershunov, Janin
Guzman‐Morales, Daniel A. Bishop, Jennifer K. Balch, Dennis P. Lettenmaier
Abstract
Recent fire seasons have fueled intense speculation regarding the
effect of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire in western North
America, and especially in California. During 1972-2018, California
experienced a five‐fold increase in annual burned area, mainly due
to more than an eight‐fold increase in summer forest‐fire extent.
Increased summer forest‐fire area very likely occurred due to
increased atmospheric aridity caused by warming. Since the early
1970s, warm‐season days warmed by approximately 1.4C as part of a
centennial warming trend, significantly increasing the atmospheric
vapor pressure deficit (VPD). These trends were consistent with
anthropogenic trends simulated by climate models. The response of
summer forest‐fire area to VPD is exponential, meaning that warming
has grown increasingly impactful. Robust interannual relationships
between VPD and summer forest burned area strongly suggest that
nearly all of the increase in summer forest‐fire area during
1972-2018 was driven by increased VPD. Climate‐change effects on
summer wildfire were less evident in non‐forest. In fall, wind
events and delayed onset of winter precipitation are the dominant
promoters of wildfire. While these variables did not change much
over the past century, background warming and consequent fuel drying
is increasingly enhancing the potential for large fall wildfires.
Among the many processes important to California's diverse fire
regimes, warming‐driven fuel drying is the clearest link between
anthropogenic climate change and increased California wildfire
activity to date.
*Key Points*
-- Annual burned area in California increased five‐fold during
1972-2018, mainly due to summer forest fire
-- Anthropogenic warming very likely increased summer forest fire by
drying fuels. This trend is likely to continue
-- Large fall fires are likely to become increasingly frequent with
continued warming and possibly gradual declines in fall precipitation
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019EF001210
[Not a joke opinion, that a financial paper goes off full optimist message]
*It is probably too late to stop dangerous global warming*
We must start planning to live with the consequences of climate change
https://www.ft.com/content/ef7b2fc8-a16f-11e9-a282-2df48f366f7d
*This Day in Climate History - July 18, 2016 - from D.R. Tucker*
July 18, 2016: The Houston Chronicle reports:
"Texas Congressman Lamar Smith has made a name for himself as one of
the country's leading climate change deniers, issuing subpoenas to
state attorneys general investigating oil companies and questioning
the scientific chops of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration.
"But earlier this month, the San Antonio Republican was back in his
seat as chairman of the House Committee on Science, Space and
Technology arguing to expand government spending on solar and energy
storage technologies. Avoiding terms like fossil fuels or climate
change, Smith stuck to statements like, 'breakthroughs in energy
storage are one of the next frontiers, without costly subsidies or
mandates.'
"The seeming contradiction of endorsing government research into
clean technology while arguing against one of its fundamental
reasons for being - climate change - is not uncommon in Washington
these days. As Republicans maintain their party's long-standing
blockade against action to reduce carbon emissions, they also are
embracing a renewable energy industry that is driving investment and
jobs in GOP strongholds like Texas.
"The balancing act comes as the battle lines around climate change
are being redrawn. Exxon Mobil, the country's largest oil company,
is supporting a tax on carbon emissions, falling in line with
European competitors like BP and Royal Dutch Shell. Prominent
Republican donors are putting millions into the congressional
campaigns of candidates willing to offer their support for the
renewable energy industry."
http://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/For-Republicans-clean-energy-boom-shifting-8383421.php
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