[TheClimate.Vote] July 25 , 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/July 25, 2019/

[Europe heatwave continues]
*Europe heatwave breaks more temperature records*
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49108847


[Climate scientist Michael Mann in news interview]
*Climate Change Is Impacting Every Aspect of Modern Life, But the Press 
Fails to "Connect the Dots"*
Democracy Now!
Published on Jul 24, 2019
July is slated to become the hottest month in recorded history, as 
extreme weather fueled by global warming wreaks havoc across the globe, 
from extreme heat waves in Europe and the U.S. to deadly monsoon 
flooding in South Asia. Severe rains have killed at least 660 people 
across India, Nepal, Bangladesh and Pakistan in a monsoon that is 
expected to continue throughout the week. A record heat wave is hitting 
Europe for the second time this summer, with Paris, Brussels and 
Amsterdam all at risk of hitting all-time high temperatures, and Spain 
facing the threat of severe fires. We speak with climate scientist 
Michael Mann, a distinguished professor and director of the Earth System 
Science Center at Penn State University, about the latest weather 
extremes across the globe and how the media can responsibly cover 
climate change.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nM4ud4oElmg



[youth activism]
*This is Zero Hour.*
The mission of the Zero Hour movement is to center the voices of diverse 
youth in the conversation around climate and environmental justice. Zero 
Hour is a youth-led movement creating entry points, training, and 
resources for new young activists and organizers (and adults who support 
our vision) wanting to take concrete action around climate change. 
Together, we are a movement of unstoppable youth organizing to protect 
our rights and access to the natural resources and a clean, safe, and 
healthy environment that will ensure a livable future where we not just 
survive, but flourish.
This is Zero Hour.
http://thisiszerohour.org/



[Radio Eco-Shock]
*Coming Crash of Civilization--David Spratt: climate emergency & 
collapse--Radio Ecoshock 2019-06-19*
Stop Fossil Fuels
Published on Jul 24, 2019
Civilization may unravel just 30 years from now, without emergency 
action to save the climate. Climate-driven storms, droughts, and fires 
are coming much sooner than scientists predicted. Now an Australian 
report suggests civilization as we know it could break down--starting as 
early as 2050. It comes from former fossil fuel lobbyist Ian Dunlop and 
Code Red author David Spratt, with an introduction by Admiral Chris 
Barrie, once Australia's top military officer.
"Existential climate-related security risk: A scenario approach" was 
published by Australia's Breakthrough National Centre for Climate 
Restoration. It got incredible press coverage and viral social media 
buzz around the world.
https://www.ecoshock.org/2019/06/the-end-is-in-sight.html
- - -
[Water]
*Glaciologist Eric Rignot (NASA/JPL) speaking at the American 
Philosophical Society meeting April 2019. *Climate warming caused by 
human activities has woken up the sleeping ice giants in Greenland and 
Antarctica, elevating risks of multiple meters of sea level rise in the 
coming centuries.

Rignot will discuss how satellites, airborne platforms, robotic devices 
and advanced numerical models have provided new insights about the 
mechanics of interaction between ice and climate and revealed that ice 
sheets started to melt sooner, faster, and on larger scale than anticipated.
Glaciologist Eric Rignot (NASA/JPL) speaking at the American 
Philosophical Society meeting April 2019.

April 27, 2019 - Climate warming caused by human activities has woken up 
the sleeping ice giants in Greenland and Antarctica, elevating risks of 
multiple meters of sea level rise in the coming centuries.

Rignot will discuss how satellites, airborne platforms, robotic devices 
and advanced numerical models have provided new insights about the 
mechanics of interaction between ice and climate and revealed that ice 
sheets started to melt sooner, faster, and on larger scale than anticipated.

Release, American Philosophical Society - On Sheet Ice Melt in a Warming 
Climate and What We Should Do About It 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnOykSCOf0c

http://climatestate.com/2019/07/24/eric-rignot-on-the-current-state-of-sea-level-rise-estimates-2019/
https://climatestate.uscreen.io/programs/eric-rignot-on-the-current-state-of-sea-level-rise-estimates
- - -
[April 2019 meeting w Dr Eric Rignot]
*On Sheet Ice Melt in a Warming Climate and What We Should Do About It*
amphilsoc
Published on Jun 21, 2019
Eric Rignot speaking at the April 2019 APS meeting



[The danger of setting deadlines - from Carbon Brief}
A group of academics write in the journal Nature Climate Change to argue 
against "the rise of the political rhetoric of setting a fixed deadline 
for decisive actions on climate change". The findings of the 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's special report on 1.5C of 
global warming, the group argues, were interpreted by some to mean that 
the world has a "12-year deadline for [avoiding] catastrophic climate 
change". This "sparked widespread calls for urgent radical actions, 
ranging from the Green New Deal proposal in the United States to the 
youth activism of climate school strikes around the world, civil 
disobedience by the Extinction Rebellion group", the group says. They 
continue: "However, setting a near-term deadline to urge immediate 
policy actions could do the opposite of what is intended. The speed of 
the countdown to a climate deadline is set by the rate of CO2 emissions. 
Emissions reductions slow the countdown. Whereas policymakers are urged 
to take policy actions to meet the deadline, they might instead be 
motivated to extend the deadline."]
- -
*Why setting a climate deadline is dangerous*
Shinichiro Asayama, Rob Bellamy, Oliver Geden, Warren Pearce & Mike Hulme
The publication of the IPCC Special Report on global warming of 1.5C 
paved the way for the rise of the political rhetoric of setting a fixed 
deadline for decisive actions on climate change. However, the dangers of 
such deadline rhetoric suggest the need for the IPCC to take 
responsibility for its report and openly challenge the credibility of 
such a deadline.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0543-4
- - -
[BBC news says:]
*Climate change: 12 years to save the planet? Make that 18 months*
Matt McGrath
Environment correspondent
@mattmcgrathbbc on Twitter

Do you remember the good old days when we had "12 years to save the planet"?

Now it seems, there's a growing consensus that the next 18 months will 
be critical in dealing with the global heating crisis, among other 
environmental challenges.

Last year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported 
that to keep the rise in global temperatures below 1.5C this century, 
emissions of carbon dioxide would have to be cut by 45% by 2030.

But today, observers recognise that the decisive, political steps to 
enable the cuts in carbon to take place will have to happen before the 
end of next year.

The idea that 2020 is a firm deadline was eloquently addressed by one of 
the world's top climate scientists, speaking back in 2017.

"The climate math is brutally clear: While the world can't be healed 
within the next few years, it may be fatally wounded by negligence until 
2020," said Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, founder and now director emeritus 
of the Potsdam Climate Institute.

The sense that the end of next year is the last chance saloon for 
climate change is becoming clearer all the time.

"I am firmly of the view that the next 18 months will decide our ability 
to keep climate change to survivable levels and to restore nature to the 
equilibrium we need for our survival," said Prince Charles, speaking at 
a reception for Commonwealth foreign ministers recently.

The Prince was looking ahead to a series of critical UN meetings that 
are due to take place between now and the end of 2020.

Ever since a global climate agreement was signed in Paris in December 
2015, negotiators have been consumed with arguing about the rulebook for 
the pact.

But under the terms of the deal, countries have also promised to improve 
their carbon-cutting plans by the end of next year.

Prince Charles has stressed how important the next 12 months are in 
tackling climate change
One of the understated headlines in last year's IPCC report was that 
global emissions of carbon dioxide must peak by 2020 to keep the planet 
below 1.5C.

Current plans are nowhere near strong enough to keep temperatures below 
the so-called safe limit. Right now, we are heading towards 3C of 
heating by 2100 not 1.5.

As countries usually scope out their plans over five and 10 year 
timeframes, if the 45% carbon cut target by 2030 is to be met, then the 
plans really need to be on the table by the end of 2020.

What are the steps?
The first major hurdle will be the special climate summit called by UN 
Secretary General Antonio Guterres, which will be held in New York on 
September 23.

Mr Guterres has been clear that he only wants countries to come to the 
UN if they can make significant offers to improve their national carbon 
cutting plans.

This will be followed by COP25, in Santiago Chile where the most 
important achievement will likely be keeping the process moving forward.

But the really big moment, will most likely be in the UK at COP26, which 
takes place at the end of 2020.

The UK government believes it can use the opportunity of COP26, in a 
post-Brexit world, to show that Britain can build the political will for 
progress, in the same way the French used their diplomatic muscle to 
make the Paris deal happen.

"If we succeed in our bid (to host COP26), then we will ensure we build 
on the Paris agreement and reflect the scientific evidence accumulating 
now that we need to go further and faster," said Environment Secretary 
Michael Gove, in what may have been his last major speech in the job.

"And we need at COP26 to ensure other countries are serious about their 
obligations and that means leading by example. Together we must take all 
the steps necessary to restrict global warming to at least 1.5C."

Reasons to be cheerful?
Whether it's the evidence of heatwaves, or the influence of Swedish 
school striker Greta Thunberg, or the rise of Extinction Rebellion, 
there has been a marked change in public interest in stories about 
climate change and a hunger for solutions that people can put in place 
in their own lives.

People are demanding significant action, and politicians in many 
countries have woken up to these changes.

The rise of school strikers like Great Thunberg has reflected growing 
interest in the climate question
Ideas like the green new deal in the US, which might have seemed 
unfeasible a few years ago have gained real traction.

Some countries like the UK have gone even further and legislated for net 
zero emissions by 2050, the long term goal that will keep temperatures down.

Prince Charles' sense that the next 18 months are critical is shared by 
some climate negotiators.

"Our group of small island developing states share Prince Charles's 
sense of the profound urgency for ambitious climate action," said 
Ambassador Janine Felson from Belize who is the chief strategist for the 
Alliance of Small Island States group in the UN.

"All at once we are witness to a collective convergence of public 
mobilization, worsening climatic impacts and dire scientific warnings 
that compel decisive climate leadership."

"Without question, 2020 is a hard deadline for that leadership to 
finally manifest itself."

Reasons to be fearful?
With exquisite timing, the likely UK COP in 2020 could also be the 
moment the US finally pulls out of the Paris agreement.

But if Donald Trump doesn't prevail in the presidential election that 
position could change, with a democrat victor likely to reverse the 
decision.

Either step could have huge consequences for the climate fight.

Right now a number of countries seem keen to slow down progress. Last 
December the US, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Russia blocked the IPCC 
special report on 1.5C from UN talks.

Just a few weeks ago in Bonn, further objections from Saudi Arabia meant 
it was again dropped from the UN negotiations, much to annoyance of 
small island states and developing nations.

The US and Saudi Arabia have joined forces to restrict the use of IPCC 
science reports in climate talks
There will be significant pressure on the host country to ensure 
substantial progress. But if there's ongoing political turmoil around 
Brexit, then the government may not have the bandwidth to unpick the 
multiple global challenges that climate change presents.

"If we cannot use that moment to accelerate ambition we will have no 
chance of getting to a 1.5 or 2C limit," said Prof Michael Jacobs, from 
the University of Sheffield, a former climate adviser to Prime Minister 
Gordon Brown.

"Right now there's nothing like enough understanding of or commitment to 
this among leading countries. That's why the UN Secretary General is 
holding a summit in September."

"It's great that the COP might be in UK because we have a big civil 
society ecosystem and much higher climate awareness than in most other 
countries. But the movement here has barely started to think about how 
to apply sufficient pressure."

There's also been a strong warning shot from the UK's Committee on 
Climate Change (CCC).

At the launch of their review of progress made by the UK government on 
tackling climate change, the country was not on track despite 
legislating for net zero emissions by 2050.

"The government must show it is serious about its legal 
obligations…[its] credibility really is at stake here," said CCC chief 
executive Chris Stark.

"There is a window over the next 12-18 months to do something about 
this. If we don't see that, I fear the government will be embarrassed at 
COP26."

And it's not all about climate change

While the decisions taken on climate change in the next year or so will 
be critical, there are a number of other key gatherings on the 
environment that will shape the nature on preserving species and 
protecting our oceans in the coming decades.

Earlier this year a major study on the losses being felt across the 
natural world as result of broader human impacts caused a huge stir 
among governments.

The IPBES report showed that up to one million species could be lost in 
coming decades.

To address this, governments will meet in China next year to try and 
agree a deal that will protect creatures of all types.

The Convention on Biological Diversity is the UN body tasked with 
putting together a plan to protect nature up to 2030.

Next year's meeting could be a "Paris agreement" moment for the natural 
world. If agreement is found it's likely there will be an emphasis on 
sustainable farming and fishing, it will urge greater protection for 
species and a limit on deforestation.

Next year, the UN Convention on the Laws of the Sea will also meet to 
negotiate a new global oceans treaty.

This has the potential to make a real difference, according to UK 
Environment Secretary Michael Gove.

"We have been convinced by the evidence of environmental degradation 
which occurs without adequate protection," he said in a speech last week.

"And that is why the United Kingdom has taken the lead in ensuring at 
least 30% of the ocean we are responsible for is protected by 2030 - a 
trebling of the present target. We will be asking all nations to sign up 
to that goal."

If all this comes to pass, the world might have a fighting chance of 
preserving our natural environment.

But the challenges are huge, the political involvement patchy.

So don't hold your breath!
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-48964736



*This Day in Climate History - July 25, - from D.R. Tucker*
July 25, 1977: The New York Times runs a front-page story entitled: 
"Scientists Fear Heavy Use of Coal May Bring Adverse Shift in Climate."

    The central recommendation of the report, prepared with help from a
    number of Government agencies, laboratories and computer facilities,
    is initiation of farreaching studies on a national and international
    basis to narrow the many uncertainties that affect assessment of the
    threat.

    To this end, it proposes creation by the Federal Government of a
    climatic council to coordinate American efforts and to participate
    in the development of international studies. Representatives of the
    White House and Government agencies that would be involved in such
    an effort were at the academy on Friday to hear presentations on the
    281‐page report.

    These were offered by Roger R. Revelle, chairman of the 15‐member
    panel, and by Philip H. Abelson and Thomas F. Malone, co‐chairmen of
    the academy's geophysics study committee, which initiated the project.

    Dr. Revelle heads the Center for Population Studies at Harvard
    University and was formerly director of the Scripps Institution of
    Oceanography in La Jolla, Calif. Dr. Abelson heads the Carnegie
    Institution of Washington. Dr. Malone, who directs the Holcomb
    Research Institute at Butler University in Indianapolis, has for
    many years been a leader in weather research.

    Dr. Malone said that the report was not a red light on coal use, nor
    a green light, but rather a "flashing yellow light" saying, "Watch
    out." Dr. Revelle, in a summary of the findings, said that early
    action was needed because it would take decades to narrow the
    uncertainties and then a full generation to shift to new energy
    sources if that, as expected, proves necessary.

    Problem of Change Stressed

    "An interdisciplinary effort of an almost unique kind" is needed, he
    said, bringing together specialists from such fields as mathematics,
    chemistry, meteorology and the social sciences. A major challenge
    would be to find ways to bring about the needed institutional
    changes, persuading governments and people to act before it was too
    late.

    By the end of this century, Dr. Revelle said, it is expected that
    the carbon dioxide content of the air will have risen 25 percent
    above its level before the Industrial Revolution. By the end of the
    next century, it will have doubled, based on predicted increases in
    population and fuel consumption.

    By the middle of the 22d Century, he added, it should have increased
    from four to eight times and, even if fuel burning diminishes then,
    it will remain that high "at least 1,000 years thereafter."

    It is estimated that in the last 110 years 127 billion tons of
    carbon derived from fuel and from limestone used to make cement have
    been introduced into the atmosphere. Cement manufacture accounted
    for 2 percent of that amount and burning for the rest.

    A considerable part of the carbon dioxide increase is attributed to
    clearing land for agriculture. This added 70 billion tons, according
    to an estimate that Dr. Revelle, however, described as "very
    uncertain." He noted that one acre of a tropical forest removes 100
    tons of carbon from the atmosphere. When the land is cleared that
    carbon, through burning or decay, returns to the air. More than half
    of land clearing for agriculture has occurred since the mid‐19th
    Century, he said.

    Dr. Revelle termed the predicted worldwide rise of 11 degrees in the
    22d century "a very shaky conclusion" based on inadequate knowledge.
    But, he added, it is "a possibility that must be taken seriously."
    Part of the uncertainty concerns the amount of added atmospheric
    carbon dioxide that would be absorbed by the oceans and plant
    growth. He predicted that a research program to achieve more
    reliable estimates would cost $20 million to $100 million.

    Shift in Corn Belt Seen

    Much of the report deals with expected effects of a global warming.
    Agricultural zones would be transferred to higher latitudes. The
    corn belt, for example, would shift from fertile Iowa to a Canadian
    region where the soil is far less fertile, Dr. Revelle said.

    Particularly vulnerable, he added, would be the fringes of arid
    regions, where a large part of the world population derives its
    sustenance, though the effect is difficult to predict. Marine life
    would suffer from lack of nutrients because a "lid" of warm water
    would impede circulation that normally brings nutrients to the surface.

    On the other hand, plant productivity, Dr. Revelle noted, could rise
    50 percent because plants would be "fertilized" by the higher carbon
    dioxide content of the air. The warmer climate could melt the
    floating pack ice of the Arctic Ocean, leading to radical changes in
    the Northern climate.

    The report suggests that increased snowfall on Antarctica could
    overload the West Antarctic ice sheet, sending large sections of it
    into the sea. This would raise global sea levels 16 feet. The oceans
    would swell from being warmed to make the total rise 20 feet.

    The study assumed a world population of 10 billion by late in the
    next century and a fivefold increase over present ener‐i gy
    consumption. The direct effect of heat from such energy use would be
    insignificant except locally, the report says.

http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=FB0F11F8395E137B93C7AB178CD85F438785F9


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