[TheClimate.Vote] June 13, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/June 13, 2019/

[follow the money]
*World's biggest sovereign wealth fund to ditch fossil fuels*
Jillian Ambrose Energy correspondent - 12 Jun 2019
Norway's Government Pension Fund Global gets go ahead to divest $13bn of 
investments
The world's largest sovereign wealth fund, which manages $1tn (£786bn) 
of Norway's assets, has been given the go ahead for the largest fossil 
fuel divestment to date by dropping more than $13bn of investments.

Norway's parliament voted plans into law on Wednesday for the fund to 
dump investments in eight coal companies and an estimated 150 oil producers.

The divestment plan means the fund will drop coal investments worth an 
estimated $6bn, which could include shares in the mining companies 
Anglo-American, Glencore and the German energy firm RWE.

The Government Pension Fund Global, which is built on Norway's legacy 
oil earnings, will also move ahead with plans to scrap investments worth 
$7bn in oil exploration and production companies.
Advertisement

It will, however, retain stakes in oil companies which are limiting 
their exposure to fossil fuels by investing in clean energy 
technologies. These include BP and Shell, but rule out London-listed 
North Sea companies including Premier Oil and Tullow Oil...
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jun/12/worlds-biggest-sovereign-wealth-fund-to-ditch-fossil-fuels


[Family Field Guide from NatGeo - 5, 10 and 15 minutes]
*Talking to Your Kids About Climate Change*
Climate change is a hot topic, and your kids probably have questions 
about it. But it's not exactly the easiest issue to explain. Use these 
ideas from Nat Geo Kids to help you empower your children to understand 
not only what climate change is all about--but also what they can do to 
help.
By Andrea Silen
*Got 5 minutes?*
Not sure how to explain climate change? No problem! First, remind kids 
how awesome our planet is with this amazing photo gallery. Then show 
them a simple video to teach them about…
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/family/talking-to-your-kids-about-climate-change/#/ww-nature-great-blue-hole-belize.jpg
*Got 15 minutes?*
Get kids excited about fighting climate change by playing the online 
game Recycle Roundup, then investigate ideas the whole family can do 
together to help save the planet. Whether they're creatively reusing 
household items, waging a war on plastic, or decreasing the amount of 
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, kids will feel empowered to make a 
difference.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/family/talking-to-your-kids-about-climate-change/#/recycle-roundup.png
*Got 30 minutes?*
Your kids probably have something to say about climate change, so help 
their voices be heard. Watch some videos to spark ideas, then use these 
letter-writing tips to show them how to craft compelling letters asking 
for support from politicians and other leaders.
Got More Time?
Want to get the entire neighborhood involved? Work with your kids to 
start a petition. Get them ready to present their case to others by 
helping them research the topic and practice public speaking.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/family/talking-to-your-kids-about-climate-change/


[controversial in climate modeling - audio]
*ABRUPT PERMAFROST THAW WITH MERRITT TURETSKY*
Posted on June 5, 2019, by Radio Ecoshock
A faster permafrost thaw means even the worst scenarios underestimated 
the pace and severity of climate change. Canadian scientist Merritt 
Turetsky explains "abrupt permafrost thaw". Then from Princeton, 
atmospheric scientist Jane Baldwin: back-to-back heat waves are in your 
future.
- - -
Scientists on Merritt's team warn that *greenhouse gas emissions from 
thawing permafrost could be twice what current models expect.* Formerly 
all estimates on the amount of carbon dioxide and methane coming out of 
thawing vegetative matter in the far north were based on a slow general 
warming. However, there are large areas which contain a lot of frozen 
water with that soil. These regions can thaw abruptly - and may result 
in the formation of millions of small ponds and lakes. When vegetation 
rots below water, the more powerful greenhouse gas methane rises up into 
the atmosphere. About one-quarter of the land in the Northern Hemisphere 
is frozen - that is a vast area that we ignore at our peril!

As Merritt's team write in Nature:

"Current models of greenhouse-gas release and climate assume that 
permafrost thaws gradually from the surface downwards. Deeper layers of 
organic matter are exposed over decades or even centuries, and some 
models are beginning to track these slow changes.

But models are ignoring an even more troubling problem. Frozen soil 
doesn't just lock up carbon -- it physically holds the landscape 
together. Across the Arctic and Boreal regions, permafrost is collapsing 
suddenly as pockets of ice within it melt. Instead of a few centimeters 
of soil thawing each year, several meters of soil can become 
destabilized within days or weeks. The land can sink and be inundated by 
swelling lakes and wetlands."

A graphic with that paper says:

"One-fifth of frozen soils at high latitudes are thawing rapidly and 
becoming unstable, leading to landslides and floods that release carbon 
into the atmosphere."

Previous estimates, including those used by the Intergovernmental Panel 
on Climate Change to advise governments, did not include this abrupt 
thaw and formation of gases. Keep in mind, in total there is twice as 
much carbon locked up in the Arctic than in the atmosphere now. If it 
was all released, or even a significant fraction, this would dwarf human 
emissions. There would be nothing we could do to stop it.

However, the IPCC's "Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a 
Changing Climate", expected later this year, should contain updated 
estimates including abrupt permafrost thaw, thanks in part to the 
Permafrost Carbon Network.

Nothing resembling a total thaw is going to happen in the next few 
hundred years. It takes time, but permafrost lands containing a lot of 
frozen water (ice) can melt within a decade (not all of it, but in 
places). One of those land-types is called "Yedoma". This is widespread 
in Russian Siberia, but also in northern Canada and Alaska...
https://www.ecoshock.org/2019/06/abrupt-permafrost-thaw-repetitive-heat-waves.html
- - -
[new term: Yedoma defined in Wikipedia]
*Yedoma is an organic-rich (about 2% carbon by mass) Pleistocene-age 
permafrost with ice content of 50-90% by volume.* The amount of carbon 
trapped in this type of permafrost is much more prevalent than 
originally thought and may be about 210 to 450 Gt, that is a multiple of 
the amount of carbon released into the air each year by the burning of 
fossil fuels.[2] Thawing yedoma is a significant source of atmospheric 
methane (about 4 Tg of CH4 per year).

The Yedoma region currently occupies an area of more than one million 
square kilometers from northeast Siberia to Alaska and Canada, and in 
many regions is tens of meters thick. During the Last Glacial Maximum, 
when the global sea level was 120 m lower than that of today, similar 
deposits covered substantial areas of the exposed northeast Eurasian 
continental shelves. At the end of last ice age, at the Pleistocene -- 
Holocene transition, thawing yedoma and the resulting thermokarst lakes 
may have produced 33 to 87% of the high-latitude increase in atmospheric 
methane concentration.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yedoma
- - -
[more on Yedoma]
*Deep Yedoma permafrost: A synthesis of depositional characteristics and 
carbon vulnerability*
Abstract

    Permafrost is a distinct feature of the terrestrial Arctic and is
    vulnerable to climate warming. Permafrost degrades in different
    ways, including deepening of a seasonally unfrozen surface and
    localized but rapid development of deep thaw features. Pleistocene
    ice-rich permafrost with syngenetic ice-wedges, termed Yedoma
    deposits, are widespread in Siberia, Alaska, and Yukon, Canada and
    may be especially prone to rapid-thaw processes. Freeze-locked
    organic matter in such deposits can be re-mobilized on short
    time-scales and contribute to a carbon-cycle climate feedback. Here
    we synthesize the characteristics and vulnerability of Yedoma
    deposits by synthesizing studies on the Yedoma origin and the
    associated organic carbon pool. We suggest that Yedoma deposits
    accumulated under periglacial weathering, transport, and deposition
    dynamics in non-glaciated regions during the late Pleistocene until
    the beginning of late glacial warming. The deposits formed due to a
    combination of aeolian, colluvial, nival, and alluvial deposition
    and simultaneous ground ice accumulation. We found up to 130
    gigatons organic carbon in Yedoma, parts of which are well-preserved
    and available for fast decomposition after thaw. Based on incubation
    experiments, up to 10% of the Yedoma carbon is considered especially
    decomposable and may be released upon thaw. The substantial amount
    of ground ice in Yedoma makes it highly vulnerable to disturbances
    such as thermokarst and thermo-erosion processes. Mobilization of
    permafrost carbon is expected to increase under future climate
    warming. Our synthesis results underline the need of accounting for
    Yedoma carbon stocks in next generation Earth-System-Models for a
    more complete representation of the permafrost-carbon feedback.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825217300508
- - -
[New permafrost map]
*Advances in hemispheric permafrost mapping*
New permafrost mapping at the hemispheric scale has just been published 
by Dr. Jaroslav Obu (University of Oslo) and co-authors. Here is Dr. 
Obu's introduction to the work: We are delighted to present a new 
permafrost map of the Northern Hemisphere, which is a result of joint 
collaboration between 21 permafrost experts from 9 different countries. 
The map presents mean annual ground temperature, permafrost occurrence 
probability and permafrost zones at 1km2 resolution.

Access the article here: 
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825218305907
https://ipa.arcticportal.org/news/931-advances-in-hemispheric-permafrost-mapping
- - -
[June study]
*Northern Hemisphere permafrost map based on TTOP modelling for 
2000-2016 at 1 km2 scale*
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825218305907



[more heat due]
*Planet is entering 'new climate regime' with 'extraordinary' heat waves 
intensified by global warming, study says*

Simultaneous heat waves scorched land areas all over the Northern 
Hemisphere last summer, killing hundreds and hospitalizing thousands 
while intensifying destructive and deadly wildfires.

A study published this week in the journal Earth's Future concludes that 
this heat wave epidemic "would not have occurred without human-induced 
climate change."

The alarming part? There are signs record-setting heat waves are 
beginning anew this summer -- signaling, perhaps, that these exceptional 
and widespread heat spells are now the norm.

In the past few days, blistering, abnormal heat has afflicted several 
parts of the Northern Hemisphere, including major population centers.

New Delhi, India's capital, soared to 118.4 degrees (48 Celsius) Monday, 
its highest temperature ever recorded in June. Some parts of India have 
seen the mercury eclipse 122 degrees (50 Celsius) in recent days, not 
far off the country's all-time high.


On the other side of the hemisphere, the temperature in San Francisco 
shot up to 100 degrees (37.8 Celsius) Monday, its highest temperatures 
ever recorded in the months of June, July or August, or this early in 
the calendar year.

Heat spread unusually far north, even up into the northern reaches of 
Scandinavia. Mika Rantanen, a meteorologist at the University of 
Helsinki, tweeted last Friday that there "are no known cases in 
Finland's climate history when it has been hotter than now so early in 
the summer." Temperatures above 86 degrees (30 Celsius) penetrated 
inside the Arctic Circle, he noted.
- -
So far, Earth has warmed by approximately 1.9 degrees (1.05 Celsius) 
since 1880. The goal of the Paris agreement on climate change is keep 
the global temperature rise to 3.6 degrees (2 Celsius) or less.

Last week, a study in the journal Science Advances found that keeping 
warming to 2.7 degrees (1.5 Celsius), compared with 5.4 degrees (3 
Celsius), could avoid between 110 and 2,720 heat-related deaths annually 
in 15 different U.S. cities.

"A strong reduction in fossil fuel emissions is paramount to reduce the 
risks of unprecedented global-scale heat-wave impacts," the Earth's 
Future study concluded.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/06/11/climate-change-intensified-last-summers-northern-hemisphere-heat-wave-it-may-be-starting-all-over-again/?utm_term=.2cc5293f2f55



[audio interview w/ partial transcript]
*The End of Ice: Climate science roundup--Interview w/Paul 
Beckwith--Radio Ecoshock 2019-02-14*
Stop Fossil Fuels
Published on Feb 17, 2019
Greenland, Antarctica, South America, the Himalayas--it's all going, the 
ice is leaving the Earth. This is a whirl-wind roundup of new science 
with Ottawa climate expert Paul Beckwith. We talk pollution (is it 
saving us?), vanishing glaciers, Tasmanian dry lightening fires, James 
Hansen's latest, tech to draw down carbon dioxide, and why this 
scientist made 500 videos to educate and warn the public via YouTube. 
Catch up quick, with this week's Radio Ecoshock.

Show by Radio Ecoshock, reposted under CC License. Episode details at 
https://www.ecoshock.org/2019/02/the-end-of-ice.html

TRANSCRIPT EXCERPT
WE ARE WITNESSING THE END OF THE AGE OF ICE ON EARTH
Sea level rise is going to be wicked this century, and for centuries 
after that. We will redraw the maps, withdraw from our ports, lose the 
weather we need for agriculture, and maybe regroup into tribes that will 
survive. New revelations from climate science are coming in so fast, no 
single scientist or radio host can keep track of it all. It is like 
standing in front of a fire-hose.

We are going to surf some of the highlights with our favorite climate 
generalist, Paul Beckwith. Paul has a Masters degrees and an engineering 
degree. He taught climate science at two Canadian Universities. Now he 
is without a doubt, the world's biggest climate teacher on YouTube, with 
over 500 videos full of charts, satellite images, and explanations of 
the bizarre unfolding of climate change. We are going to cover the whole 
wild world, from the South Pole through Australia to Europe, North 
America, all the way to the North Pole.

THE POLAR VORTEX AND THE WINTER OF CLIMATE CHANGE
When we think of global warming, we imagine hot days, way too hot days 
and fires. But Paul and I discuss what I call "The Winter of Climate 
Change". A while back we had pro meteorologist Judah Cohen on the air. 
He said the term "polar vortex" really only applies to events in the 
Stratosphere, but now it has been stolen and popularized by TV weather 
forecasters. What we are really describing is a blast of super-cold 
Arctic air escaping lower down to the mid-latitudes, partly due to a 
weak and wavering Jet Stream.

In Paul's YouTube videos, he often talks about whip-saw events where 
temperatures can shift as much as 70F (21C) within 24 hours. This is 
very hard on human infrastructure, but it's really toxic to plants. I 
worry we'll see tree die-off, and lost perennials from those sub-zero 
chills followed by spring-like warmth the next day.

A week ago photos in the Tasmanian highlands of Australia showed giant 
forest fires on the horizon, during record hot heat. Fast forward to 
Tuesday 12th, and you would see an unusual summer snow storm at the same 
spot! Whipsaw.

ICE SHEET LOSS
There is new science out, saying "Melting ice sheets may cause 'climate 
chaos' according to new modeling" and "Current international climate 
policies do not take into account full effects on global climate".

Professor Natalya Gomez, from the Department of Earth and Planetary 
Sciences at McGill modeled projected changes to water levels around the 
globe as ice melts into the ocean. The ice sheet simulations suggest 
that the fastest increase in the rise of sea levels is likely to occur 
between 2065 and 2075. Melting ice sheets will affect water temperatures 
and circulation patterns in the world's oceans, which will in turn 
affect air temperatures in a complex ice-ocean-atmosphere feedback loop.

"Water levels would not simply rise like a bathtub," says Gomez. "Some 
areas in the world, such as the island nations in the Pacific, would 
experience a large rise in sea level, while close to the ice sheets the 
sea level would actually fall."

The effects of ice sheet melt are far more widespread than simply 
leading to changes in sea levels. As warmer melt water enters the 
oceans, major currents such as the Gulf Stream will be significantly 
weakened. This will lead to warmer air temperatures in the high Arctic, 
Eastern Canada and Central America, and cooler temperatures over 
northwestern Europe."

HEAT RECORDS AND PREDICTIONS
People mistakenly think Tasmania is tropical, but it is the closest part 
of Australia to Antarctica. The weather should be very temperate if not 
cold and wet there, most of the year. Tasmania has world-class forests 
that have not burned in thousands of years, until the last few years. 
Like me in British Columbia, Tasmanians have felt the terror of 
wildfires that plague the rest of Australia, now that every year is a 
fire year. Nowhere is safe anymore.

THE HOT SEAS
"Our model-based analysis suggests that nearly half of the 
industrial-era increases in global OHC have occurred in recent decades, 
with over a third of the accumulated heat occurring below 700m and 
steadily rising."
https://www.ecoshock.org/2019/02/the-end-of-ice.html


[Experts say]
*Experts say climate change poses a real threat to global peace in the 
next 10 years*
Institute for Economics and Peace predicts climate change could cause 
conflict due to competition over diminishing resources
Thomson Reuters Foundation
Published: 12 Jun, 2019

Climate change poses a threat to peace in countries around the world in 
the coming decade, according to an annual peace index released on 
Wednesday that factored in the risk from global warming for the first time.

Nearly a billion people live in areas at high risk from global warming 
and about 40 per cent of them are in countries already struggling with 
conflict, said the Australia-based Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP).
- - -
Climate change causes conflict due to competition over diminishing 
resources and may also threaten livelihoods and force mass migration, it 
said.

"Going forward, climate change is going to be a substantial problem," 
Steve Killelea, executive chairman of the IEP, told the Thomson Reuters 
Foundation.

"We can actually get a much better idea of which countries are most at 
risk, what are the types of risk and what would be the level of impact 
before it leads to a break or an implosion within the country."

In 2019, the world became very slightly more peaceful for the first time 
in five years, said the IEP, which used data from groups including think 
tanks, research institutes, governments and universities to compile the 
index.

However, it remains significantly less peaceful than 10 years ago due to 
factors including conflicts in the Middle East, a rise in terrorism, and 
increasing numbers of refugees.
- - -
The index assigns each country a score between one and five, where one 
is the most peaceful and five is the least, based on 23 indicators 
ranging from homicide levels to weapons imports.

The effects of climate change can create a "tipping point", exacerbating 
tensions until a breaking point is reached, particularly in countries 
that are already struggling, said Killelea.

Tackling entrenched conflicts may also help countries cooperate better 
on global warming, he said..
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-climatechange-peace/climate-change-seen-posing-threat-to-global-peace-in-next-10-years-idUSKCN1TD0C6


*This Day in Climate History - June 13, 2018 - from D.R. Tucker*
June 13, 2018:
The New York Times reports:

    "Between 60 and 90 percent of the world's fresh water is frozen in the
    ice sheets of Antarctica, a continent roughly the size of the United
    States and Mexico combined. If all that ice melted, it would be enough
    to raise the world's sea levels by roughly 200 feet.

    "While that won't happen overnight, Antarctica is indeed melting, and
    a study published Wednesday in the journal Nature shows that the
    melting is speeding up.

    "The rate at which Antarctica is losing ice has tripled since 2007,
    according to the latest available data. The continent is now melting
    so fast, scientists say, that it will contribute six inches (15
    centimeters) to sea-level rise by 2100. That is at the upper end of
    what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has estimated
    Antarctica alone could contribute to sea level rise this century."

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/13/climate/antarctica-ice-melting-faster.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news


/-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------/

/Archive of Daily Global Warming News 
<https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote/2017-October/date.html> 
/
https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote

/To receive daily mailings - click to Subscribe 
<mailto:subscribe at theClimate.Vote?subject=Click%20SEND%20to%20process%20your%20request> 
to news digest./

*** Privacy and Security:*This is a text-only mailing that carries no 
images which may originate from remote servers. Text-only messages 
provide greater privacy to the receiver and sender.
By regulation, the .VOTE top-level domain must be used for democratic 
and election purposes and cannot be used for commercial purposes.
To subscribe, email: contact at theclimate.vote 
<mailto:contact at theclimate.vote> with subject subscribe, To Unsubscribe, 
subject: unsubscribe
Also you may subscribe/unsubscribe at 
https://pairlist10.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/theclimate.vote
Links and headlines assembled and curated by Richard Pauli for 
http://TheClimate.Vote <http://TheClimate.Vote/> delivering succinct 
information for citizens and responsible governments of all levels. List 
membership is confidential and records are scrupulously restricted to 
this mailing list.