[TheClimate.Vote] June 15, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/June 15 , 2019/

[News - previous big one was in 2015]
*India heat wave: Experts urge more can be done as death toll rises*
Numerous cities need to modify heat protection schemes as India seeks to 
protect its homeless population. Temperatures have soared above 50 
degrees Celsius (122 Fahrenheit).
A number of Indian cities can do more to prevent deaths and illnesses, 
experts said on Friday.

Until now, there have been at least 36 deaths as a result of this year's 
heat wave, during which temperatures have exceeded 50 degrees Celsius 
(122 degrees Fahrenheit).

Indeed, a scarcity of water has led to fighting in the streets, with a 
number of stabbings, injuries and even deaths.

Urban heat islands

The hot weather has turned cities into "urban heat islands," said 
Sayantan Sarkar, citing a lack of tree cover that was causing 
temperatures to soar on paved surfaces. Sarkar had helped implement 
India's first Heat Action Plan (HAP) in Ahmedabad in 2013.

"Cities bear the brunt of a heat wave because they are so densely 
populated and because the effects are more pronounced," he said...
- -
*Hot nights pose added risk*
Arup Kumar Srivastava, an expert at India's National Disaster Management 
Authority, said improvements were needed to cope with a heat wave like 
the one currently hitting India. "This year, night-time temperatures 
have also remained high, which poses additional risks. So the plans need 
to be modified accordingly," he said.

A critical feature of HAP is monitoring India's poverty-stricken population.

Shivani Chaudhry, executive director of advocacy group Housing and Land 
Rights Network (HLRN), said: "Homeless persons are most vulnerable to 
the heat, as the majority live outdoors and do not have access to 
adequate shelter, drinking water and health care."

"The city has a winter plan for the homeless, which includes setting up 
temporary tents, but there is no similar effort in the summer -- even 
though they suffer as much, if not more in the severe heat," she said.
https://www.dw.com/en/india-heat-wave-experts-urge-more-can-be-done-as-death-toll-rises/a-49191772


[CNBC video documentary 13 mins]
*How The United States Got Hooked On Foreign Oil*
CNBC - Published on Jun 14, 2019
The United States is predicted to become a net energy exporter by 2020. 
This will be the first time since 1953 that the country exports more 
fossil fuels than it imports. For almost a century prior, the United 
States of America was the largest oil producer in the world. So how did 
the United States get hooked on foreign oil.

Every American president since Richard Nixon has pledged energy 
independence as a way to strengthen us geopolitically, make us more 
secure, or boost our economy.

The story of American oil begins in 1859 in Titusville, Pennsylvania. 
Small amounts of oil had seeped from the ground for a long time, but no 
one knew how to extract it. Until, Edwin Laurentin Drake, a former 
conductor, was hired. After many failed attempts, he finally struck gold 
-- black gold.

The next FEW  decades, major oil finds in Texas, California and Oklahoma 
contributed to U.S. emergence as a major economic power. The 1901 
Spindletop gusher in Texas nearly tripled U.S. oil production.

Henry Ford's Model T invention in 1908 - the first mass-produced car - 
made America the most motorized country in the world. Other 
industrialized countries like France, Britain and Germany were ways behind.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwjh7aZIylA



[Interview with scientists]*
**Out Of The Smog, Into The Sea*
Posted on February 21, 2019, by Radio Ecoshock
Melting glaciers lead to a hotter world. Episodes of glaciers and ice 
falling into the sea make our weather one year very different from the 
next. New Zealand ice-expert Nicholas Golledge joins us. But first, from 
California Dr. Robert Allen reveals pollution has hidden up to half a 
degree C. of warming. I think the two degree supposed "safe" line is 
already in the rear-view mirror. This is Radio Ecoshock. Prepare to live 
in a very different world.

    Listen to or download this Radio Ecoshock show in CD Quality (57 MB)
    or Lo-Fi (14 MB)
    https://www.ecoshock.net/downloads/ES_190220_Show.mp3
    https://www.ecoshock.net/downloads/ES_190220_LoFi.mp3

It is already pretty strange. Talking with CKUW radio in Winnipeg 
Canada, a weak Jet Stream left the freezer door open. After a few weeks 
getting down to 39.9 degrees C, about the same in Fahrenheit, folks 
there are ready for some global warming. Where Tasmania was super hot 
with giant fires, it snowed in the highlands a few days later, just like 
the strange snow in Hawaii last week. California has been drowning with 
rain, which is mega-snow in the mountains, while the slopes burned out 
in last years fires break into rivers of mud taking out homes and 
highways. Back in Australia, following that brutal heat, a "mega-river" 
up to 37 miles wide, 60 kilometers, suddenly appeared in the bed of a 
smallish river in Queensland. Folks in the Swiss and Austrian Alps are 
digging out mountains of snow. That is all during "neutral ocean 
conditions, but scientists have just announced a new tilt: an El Nino 
has formed in the Eastern Pacific. That usually leads to more record hot 
weather around the world. Prediction is hard. The future has been 
destabilized.
https://www.ecoshock.org/2019/02/out-of-the-smog-into-the-sea.html
hear more from - 
https://www.ecoshock.org/audio-on-demand/2019-radio-ecoshock-show
- - - - -
[about the complexity, Interview with an atmospheric scientist]
Out of the Smog: Aerosols mask global warming--Interview w/Dr. Robert 
Allen--Radio Ecoshock 2019-02-21
Published on Mar 24, 2019
*UP TO HALF A DEGREE MORE WARMING HIDDEN IN POLLUTION*
You can't see them, but you are surrounded by billions of tiny 
particles. When bits of dust or droplets hang in the air, scientists 
call them "aerosols". In the atmosphere, aerosols protect us a little 
from being too hot. They hide some of the warming we have already 
created. As smog, they kill us by the millions every year. What happens 
to aerosols as the world heats up even more? We need to know.
Our guest Dr. Robert Allen wades into what may be one of the most 
complex questions of science. After getting his Pd.D. in Atmosphere, 
Ocean and Climate Dynamics at Yale, Robert was a Postdoctoral Scholar at 
various places, including at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. I 
called Dr. Allen about his new paper "Enhanced land-sea warming contrast 
elevates aerosol pollution in a warmer world". It was published February 
4th, 2019 in the prestigious journal Nature Climate Change.

The composition of these little drops or flecks is not simple. There are 
so many things that could be up there, scientists talk about aerosol 
"species" and "populations". I've seen a greatly-magnified photo of a 
tiny solid piece which looked like an asteroid. It had other things 
smeared on it, like maybe pesticides or materials from car exhausts.

When sunlight arrives on Earth, some of it bounces and radiates back out 
into space. But some of the Sun's energy is held within the Earth's 
atmosphere by greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide. A significant 
portion of the Sun's light never reaches the surface, because it strikes 
aerosol particles first.

There is a stunning statement in the introduction, which says "aerosols 
cause a net cooling effect, which has probably offset ~40% of 
[Greenhouse Gas] GHG warming." That is almost half the real warming 
potential getting shielded by pollution, both man-made and natural. Does 
that mean the warming we have already created is really 40% WORSE than 
we are experiencing so far, or does it imply a change in time, putting 
off the arrival of the heat?

Robert Allen says the amount of heating hidden by aerosols could be up 
to half a degree C. If we are currently approaching 1.5 degrees C of 
warming, as suggested by several scientists on this show, doesn't that 
mean we really risk 2 degrees of warming as soon as pollution is greatly 
reduced? Because the citizens of Asian cities like New Delhi, Mumbai, 
and dozens of giant cities in China are complaining, and dying from 
smog, cleaning it up is a high political priority. The United States 
started lowering pollution in the 1970's with the Clean Air Act, and it 
did reduce both smog and acid rain. It seems almost certain that other 
countries will cut aerosol production, especially as coal power plants 
are phased out in favor or renewable energy. So we will get that extra 
heat. Meanwhile, it drives me crazy that other scientists, the IPCC and 
governments don't mention the extra load of heat just waiting for us, as 
though aerosol cooling isn't a real factor the public needs to know.

What is the share of total aerosol shielding coming from natural 
sources, and how much from human activity? I know Robert Allen published 
on that question back in 2010, with Australia's Steven Sherwood from the 
University of New South Wales, Australia, Climate Research Centre.

It turns out that while the majority of aerosols (like dust) in the 
atmosphere are natural, the CHANGE of additional aerosols from humans 
can make a big difference. "Our" aerosols come from burning fossil 
fuels, including cars, trucks, planes and ships, and from human 
activities like farming, agrochemicals, and land-use changes. For 
example, in many parts of the world people slash and burn forests to 
create new fields, or burn off existing fields to prepare for the next 
planting. Smoke from those activities is visible from space.

*KILLER SMOG*
 From this new paper:

    "Aerosols can also adversely affect air quality and human health,
    with a recent study attributing 3.3 million premature deaths each
    year to aggravated aerosol pollution, led by fine particulate matter
    (PM2.5)8, particularly in heavily polluted areas such as India and
    China."

According to this paper, the latest models show (a) a greater shielding 
of Earth from the Sun during hottest times of the year in the Northern 
Hemisphere summer (b) this is due to less "large-scale precipitation" 
and (c) the increase in summer pollution will cause more people to die 
prematurely.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC, uses a figure 
of 0.9 Watts per meter squared for radiative forcing from aerosols. But 
the uncertainty range is huge. The IPCC suggests radiative forcing could 
be twice as much, or 1/9th as much as their .9 Wm2 figure. Have 
scientists narrowed that range since? Does that uncertainty greatly 
affect the results of this paper? The paper uses methods that do not 
depend on the uncertainty (I understand), but this does show how really 
difficult calculating aerosols and their impacts can be. This is still 
one of those frontiers of science.

*FINDING THE DOMINANT DRIVER*
This team of scientists find the main driver of increased aerosols 
(smog, pollution) in the Northern Hemisphere will be driven by the 
difference in warming over land, compared to the sea. Many scientists 
and Ecoshock guests have told us the "global warming" will be felt much 
more by land dwellers, higher than the global mean temperature, which 
includes the ocean that covers the majority of Earth's surface. Oceans 
have depth and circulation, which means some of the heat is transferred 
into the deep. Thus oceans will heat more slowly, while the land will be 
hotter. Keep this in mind when the IPCC talks about 2 or 3 degrees C of 
warming by the year 2100. We on land could experience 4 or 5 degrees C 
or more hotter lives!

The paper says:

    "However, some climate warming responses are more robust than
    others. The land-sea warming contrast (LSWC), where continents warm
    more than the ocean is a robust feature found in both observations
    and climate model simulations. This phenomenon is caused by
    contrasts in surface sensible and latent fluxes over land,
    land-ocean contrasts in boundary-layer lapse rate changes,
    boundary-layer relative humidity and associated low-level cloud
    cover changes over land, and soil moisture reductions.

    Thus, enhanced continental warming is associated with an increase in
    land aridity, which in turn may affect the burden of anthropogenic
    aerosols. Here, we demonstrate, using novel simulations, that the
    LSWC is a dominant driver of the anthropogenic aerosol increase
    under future warming."

I wonder how will aerosols change if large-scale droughts invade more of 
the Earth, and the hydrological cycle is changed due to disappearing 
Glaciers, as in the Andes, or the Himalayas. The studies by Robert 
Allen, and our previous Radio Ecoshock guest Yangyang Xu, show that 
expected meteorological changes will enhance the effect of aerosols. Yes 
a warmer atmosphere will hold more moisture, but that is expected to 
show up in more extreme rainfall events. In between those extreme rains, 
in some parts of the world there will be more dry days in between, and 
more stagnant weather patterns. This leads to a worsening pollution 
(with all the attendant health affects, and a slight cooling when those 
conditions exist).

The paper led by Robert Allen deals mainly with the effects of climate 
change on aerosols in the Northern Hemisphere. I have not forgotten my 
listeners in Australia and New Zealand. But most of the aerosol 
pollution comes out of the much more heavily populated northern 
hemisphere. Unlike carbon dioxide, which distributes itself evenly 
around the world's atmosphere over time, aerosol pollution mainly stays 
in the hemisphere where it was created. A lot of the excess 
unfortunately collects in the Arctic, where glaciers and snows are 
darkening. That leads to earlier spring melts, and more exposed darker 
land for longer periods, another spin-off effect that adds to the 
heating of the planet.

In a Comment in Nature, scientists Ramanathan, Victor and Xu warned 
"Global warming will happen faster than we think". Changes in air 
pollution was one of three key factors in faster heating of the planet.

*THE TROPICS ARE EXPANDING TOWARD YOU*
We break off for a minute to discuss something I learned from Allen's 
previous paper in 2012 "Recent Northern Hemisphere tropical expansion 
primarily driven by black carbon and tropospheric ozone". I did not know 
the Tropics are expanding north and south as the world warms. Although 
emissions are a factor, that is not directly causing tropical expansion, 
but something else. Dr. Allen tells us the drivers of tropical expansion 
are different for the North and Southern Hemispheres.

This is not a small thing. An earlier paper (2008) paper by Seidel et 
al. suggests the Tropics expanded 2-5 degrees of latitude since 1979. 
Using rough calculations, at the high end of 5 degrees latitude, that 
moves the Tropics about 350 miles, or 550 kilometers, closer to most of 
my listeners. But Robert says more recent science has refined that, 
bringing Tropical expansion to the lower end, around 2 degrees of 
latitude. That is still about 138 miles since 1979, or 222 kilometers. 
We presume that tropical insects and plants are moving north and south, 
toward the poles, along with tropical weather.
You can also check out this article in Yale360 which says the Tropics 
are expanding at about 30 miles/48 km per decade.
*POLLUTION CAN DECREASE CLOUDS?*
A description of Robert Allen's research on his web page introduces 
another unsettling complexity into the aerosol problem. He describes a 
process where aerosols have an indirect affect of reducing cloud 
formation. We discuss that in our interview.

Allen cautions that the whole science of this semi-direct effect of 
aerosols is still uncertain. It may be possible that up to 100% of 
aerosol effects on surface heating may be negated by semi-direct effects 
reducing clouds. Does that mean it is possible that aerosols - pollution 
as we call it - might not cool the Earth's surface at all? We'll have to 
wait the results of future science to know. It is super-hard to nail 
down how mists, smoke, and invisible particles move around, especially 
in an uncertain future with climate change.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rK2ampF55VA



[permafrost underestimated - brief video]
*Ben Abbott on Permafrost Lakes*
greenmanbucket
Published on Jun 13, 2019
Permafrost expert Ben Abbott describes new research on the processes 
that create "thermokarst" lakes in the arctic, releasing large amounts 
of greenhouse gases.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhLeyyRS4NY
- -
[more on Ben Abbott from 2014]
*Meet Dr Ben Abbott*
https://youtu.be/O1523wpRM6g
http://www.thetippingpoints.com/expedition/the-permafrost-of-the-high-arctic/meet-dr-ben-abbott/



[Already uncomfortable - pretty obvious to me]
*Seattle unprepared for deadly heat waves made worse by global warming, 
researchers say*
June 14, 2019
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/environment/heat-waves-could-kill-hundreds-more-in-seattle-as-globe-warms-researchers-say/



[A great little song.. by Lauren Mayer]
*Global Weirding*
Lauren Mayer Comedy Songs
Published on Jun 14, 2019
Maybe if we call it what it really is, we can get through deniers' thick 
skulls.  (We've known the science behind climate change for awhile, 
which explains the '80s makeup & music style . . . )
Lauren makes current events fun (or at least helps you laugh at them) 
with literate humor and witty
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=idfAuKEJ6j8

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