[TheClimate.Vote] June 23, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Sun Jun 23 07:53:51 EDT 2019
/June 23, 2019/
[Grey Lady Insulted]
*Police arrest 70 climate change protesters outside New York Times*
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Police arrested 70 environmental protesters outside
the New York Times headquarters who laid down in the street and climbed
onto the building to demand the newspaper start referring to climate
change as a climate emergency, police and media reports said.
New York police arrested 67 people and Port Authority police arrested
three others, a police spokesman said. Charges were pending.
Protesters blocked the street by lying down in a "die-in" and affixed a
banner to the skyscraper in midtown Manhattan saying "climate change =
mass murder," with the word "change" crossed out and replaced with
"emergency," according to pictures posted by the website of 1010 Wins radio.
Another banner was attached to the Port Authority Bus Terminal across
the street saying simply "climate emergency."
Demonstrators chanted "tell the truth," a reporter for The Guardian on
the scene tweeted.
According to 1010 Wins, a spokeswoman for Extinction Rebellion, Eve
Mosher, said the group wants the media to report on "the climate
emergency" so that "people can start pushing for more radical responses."
---
"There is no national news organization that devotes more time, staff or
resources to producing deeply reported coverage to help readers
understand climate change than The New York Times," spokeswoman Danielle
Rhoades Ha told The Guardian, saying the newspaper published 795
articles about the issue in 2018.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-climate-arrests/police-arrest-70-climate-change-protesters-outside-new-york-times-idUSKCN1TN0RQ
- -
[Other activism]
*Extinction Rebellion brings protest in Cannes to Facebook's private beach*
Activists occupied Facebook's beachfront presence, continuing their call
for the advertising industry to address climate change head-on.
https://www.thedrum.com/news/2019/06/20/extinction-rebellion-brings-protest-cannes-facebooks-private-beach
[CBC TV report on permafrost ]
*Climate change thawing permafrost in Northern Canada*
CBC News: The National
Published on Jun 17, 2019
Permafrost in Northern Canada is thawing, shifting the ground under
people's feet and altering the foundations beneath buildings.
Welcome to The National, the flagship nightly newscast of CBC News
Voice Your Opinion & Connect With Us Online:
The National Updates on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thenational
The National Updates on Twitter: https://twitter.com/CBCTheNational
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8ynabSmGGs
[assaults to eyes and lungs last year, not fun]
*Seattle is already prepping for another hellish summer of smoke*
By Zoya Teirstein on Jun 21, 2019
In Seattle, blissfully blue summer skies are usually the reward you get
for suffering through months of clouds and soggy weather. But given
climate predictions, Seattleites are getting used to a new summertime
weather phenomenon: ash.
Wildfire season in the Pacific Northwest is objectively terrible. Last
year, when smoke blew in from fires burning in British Columbia and
Eastern Washington, the usually dry air in Seattle turned muggy and
thick, and the sun glowed a creepy shade of hot-orange. Air quality in
the region was the worst in the world; just existing outside was the
equivalent of smoking seven cigarettes a day. Playgrounds and parks
emptied out as parents were told to keep kids inside. The downtown
skyline vanished behind a cloud of smoke. Hospital visits surged.
It never used to be like this, Seattleites wearing smoke masks kept
assuring me last year, but smokey, apocalyptic Augusts are becoming the
new norm, with Seattle coughing its way through roughly three of the
last four.
This year's season is expected to stick to the trend, or maybe get
worse. The region's snowpack is far below average, and forecasters
expect a dry, warmer-than-usual summer. As of May, dry weather had
spurred an unusual number of wildfires -- 239 blazes since the first of
the year, according to the state's Department of Natural Resources.
This year, the city is hoping to get ahead of smoke season before it begins.
To combat poor air quality, officials announced on Wednesday that five
public buildings across the city will be outfitted with special filters,
sensors, and retrofitted air ventilation systems to serve as safe places
for Seattleites during days with harmful air quality. At an event to
announce the move, Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan said some of the buildings
could be used to safeguard the city's homeless residents during smoke
season.
Seattle is the least air-conditioned metro area in the U.S. with a
general population of roughly 755,000, approximately 1.5 percent of whom
are homeless. And when smoke descended on Seattle last August, locals
quickly ran out of options. N95 masks, the type that filter out harmful
particulate matter, flew off store shelves. [Oregon Public Health Dept
says they offer "some protection"] Officials warned people to stay
indoors, but unfiltered air indoors wasn't much better than the air
outside. And if you were homeless and couldn't get into a shelter, you
didn't have a choice.
"We were hoping the first year that it was an aberration, and the second
year that maybe it was a second aberration," Durkan said on Wednesday,
"but we now know it may be the new normal."
https://grist.org/article/seattle-is-already-prepping-for-another-hellish-summer-of-smoke/
- - -
[Oregon Dept of Public Health]
*Wildfire Smoke and Your Health*
Keep indoor air as clean as possible.Keep windows and doors closed. Use
a high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filter to reduce indoor air
pollution. Avoid smoking tobacco, using wood-burning stoves or
fireplaces, burning candles, incenses or vacuuming.Reduce the amount of
time spent in the smoky area.Reduce the amount of time spent
outdoors.Avoid vigorous outdoor activities. If you have to spend time
outside when the air quality is hazardous:Do not rely on paper or dust
masks for protection. N95 masks properly worn may offer some protection.
*Frequently asked questions about wildfire smoke and public health*
http://Public.Health.Oregon.gov
https://www.oregon.gov/oha/ph/Preparedness/Prepare/Documents/OHA%208626%20Wildfire%20FAQs-v6c.pdf
- --
Washington State Dept of Health
*Smoke from Fires*
https://www.doh.wa.gov/CommunityandEnvironment/AirQuality/SmokeFromFires
- - -
[other words from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ]
*Wildfire Smoke*
Wildfire smoke can harm you in multiple ways. Smoke can hurt your eyes,
irritate your respiratory system, and worsen chronic heart and lung
diseases. This fact sheet tells you how you can protect your health and
be safe if you are exposed to wildfire smoke.
- -
*#7 Do not rely on dust masks for protection.* Paper "comfort" or "dust"
masks commonly found at hardware stores trap large particles, such as
sawdust. These masks will not protect your lungs from smoke. An "N95"
mask, properly worn, will offer some protection. If you decide to keep a
mask on hand, see the Respirator Fact Sheet provided by CDC's National
Institute for Occupational Safety and Health...
https://www.cdc.gov/disasters/wildfires/smoke.html
[Raido Ecoshock interview 6 months ago]
*Warming Faster Than We Think*
Professor David Victor delivers stiff warning from Nature: "Global
warming will happen faster than we think".
WARMING FASTER: DAVID VICTOR
You may believe climate disruption is arriving sooner than we were told.
You are right. Three power-house scientists have published a warning:
"Global warming will happen faster than we think." They explain three
emerging threats that combine to bring climate danger out of the year
2100, and right into the next decade.
Our guide to the Comment published by the prestigious journal Nature in
December, is co-author David G. Victor. At the University of California
San Diego, Dr. Victor is a professor of international relations, and
director of the Laboratory on International Law and Regulation. He is a
connected guy, often producing reports for the Brookings Institution,
while publishing articles in magazines like The New Yorker. David Victor
is author of the book "Global Warming Gridlock" published by Cambridge
University Press.
https://www.ecoshock.org/2019/01/warming-faster-than-we-think.html
- - -
[the comment in journal Nature]
*Global warming will happen faster than we think*
Three trends will combine to hasten it, warn Yangyang Xu, Veerabhadran
Ramanathan and David G. Victor.
Prepare for the "new abnormal". That was what California Governor Jerry
Brown told reporters last month, commenting on the deadly wildfires that
have plagued the state this year. He's right. California's latest crisis
builds on years of record-breaking droughts and heatwaves. The rest of
the world, too, has had more than its fair share of extreme weather in
2018. The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change announced last
week that 157 million more people were exposed to heatwave events in
2017, compared with 2000.
Such environmental disasters will only intensify. Governments, rightly,
want to know what to do. Yet the climate-science community is struggling
to offer useful answers.
In October, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
released a report setting out why we must stop global warming at 1.5 C
above pre-industrial levels, and how to do so. It is grim reading. If
the planet warms by 2 C -- the widely touted temperature limit in the
2015 Paris climate agreement -- twice as many people will face water
scarcity than if warming is limited to 1.5 C. That extra warming will
also expose more than 1.5 billion people to deadly heat extremes, and
hundreds of millions of individuals to vector-borne diseases such as
malaria, among other harms.
But the latest IPCC special report underplays another alarming fact:
global warming is accelerating. Three trends -- rising emissions,
declining air pollution and natural climate cycles -- will combine over
the next 20 years to make climate change faster and more furious than
anticipated. In our view, there's a good chance that we could breach the
1.5 C level by 2030, not by 2040 as projected in the special report (see
'Accelerated warming'). The climate-modelling community has not grappled
enough with the rapid changes that policymakers care most about,
preferring to focus on longer-term trends and equilibria. Sources: Ref.
1/GISTEMP/IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014)
Policymakers have less time to respond than they thought. Governments
need to invest even more urgently in schemes that protect homes from
floods and fires and help people to manage heat stress (especially older
individuals and those living in poverty). Nations need to make their
forests and farms more resilient to droughts, and prepare coasts for
inundation. Rapid warming will create a greater need for emissions
policies that yield the quickest changes in climate, such as controls on
soot, methane and hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) gases. There might even be a
case for solar geoengineering -- cooling the planet by, for instance,
seeding reflective particles in the stratosphere to act as a sunshade.
Climate scientists must supply the evidence policymakers will need and
provide assessments for the next 25 years. They should advise
policymakers on which climate-warming pollutants to limit first to gain
the most climate benefit. They should assess which policies can be
enacted most swiftly and successfully in the real world, where
political, administrative and economic constraints often make abstract,
'ideal' policies impractical.
Speeding freight train
*Three lines of evidence suggest that global warming will be faster than
projected in the recent IPCC special report.*
First, greenhouse-gas emissions are still rising. In 2017, industrial
carbon dioxide emissions are estimated to have reached about 37
gigatonnes2. This puts them on track with the highest emissions
trajectory the IPCC has modelled so far. This dark news means that the
next 25 years are poised to warm at a rate of 0.25-0.32 C per decade.
That is faster than the 0.2 C per decade that we have experienced since
the 2000s, and which the IPCC used in its special report.
Second, governments are cleaning up air pollution faster than the IPCC
and most climate modellers have assumed. For example, China reduced
sulfur dioxide emissions from its power plants by 7-14% between 2014 and
2016. Mainstream climate models had expected them to rise. Lower
pollution is better for crops and public health. But aerosols, including
sulfates, nitrates and organic compounds, reflect sunlight. This shield
of aerosols has kept the planet cooler, possibly by as much as 0.7 C
globally.
Third, there are signs that the planet might be entering a natural warm
phase that could last for a couple of decades. The Pacific Ocean seems
to be warming up, in accord with a slow climate cycle known as the
Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. This cycle modulates temperatures over
the equatorial Pacific and over North America. Similarly, the mixing of
deep and surface waters in the Atlantic Ocean (the Atlantic meridional
overturning circulation) looks to have weakened since 2004, on the basis
of data from drifting floats that probe the deep ocean8. Without this
mixing, more heat will stay in the atmosphere rather than going into the
deep oceans, as it has in the past.
These three forces reinforce each other. We estimate that rising
greenhouse-gas emissions, along with declines in air pollution, bring
forward the estimated date of 1.5 C of warming to around 2030, with the
2 C boundary reached by 2045. These could happen sooner with quicker
shedding of air pollutants. Adding in natural decadal fluctuations
raises the odds of blasting through 1.5 C by 2025 to at least 10%. By
comparison, the IPCC assigned probabilities of 17% and 83% for crossing
the 1.5 C mark by 2030 and 2052, respectively.
*Scientists and policymakers must rethink their roles, objectives and
approaches on four fronts.*
Assess science in the near term. Policymakers should ask the IPCC for
another special report, this time on the rates of climate change over
the next 25 years. The panel should also look beyond the physical
science itself and assess the speed at which political systems can
respond, taking into account pressures to maintain the status quo from
interest groups and bureaucrats. Researchers should improve climate
models to describe the next 25 years in more detail, including the
latest data on the state of the oceans and atmosphere, as well as
natural cycles. They should do more to quantify the odds and impacts of
extreme events. The evidence will be hard to muster, but it will be more
useful in assessing real climate dangers and responses.
Rethink policy goals. Warming limits, such as the 1.5 C goal, should be
recognized as broad planning tools. Too often they are misconstrued as
physical thresholds around which to design policies. The excessive
reliance on 'negative emissions technologies' (that take up CO2) in the
IPCC special report shows that it becomes harder to envision realistic
policies the closer the world gets to such limits. It's easy to bend
models on paper, but much harder to implement real policies that work.
Realistic goals should be set based on political and social trade-offs,
not just on geophysical parameters. They should come out of analyses of
costs, benefits and feasibility. Assessments of these trade-offs must be
embedded in the Paris climate process, which needs a stronger compass to
guide its evaluations of how realistic policies affect emissions. Better
assessment can motivate action but will also be politically
controversial: it will highlight gaps between what countries say they
will do to control emissions, and what needs to be achieved collectively
to limit warming. Information about trade-offs must therefore come from
outside the formal intergovernmental process -- from national academies
of sciences, subnational partnerships and non-governmental organizations.
Design strategies for adaptation. The time for rapid adaptation has
arrived. Policymakers need two types of information from scientists to
guide their responses. First, they need to know what the potential local
impacts will be at the scales of counties to cities. Some of this
information could be gleaned by combining fine-resolution climate impact
assessments with artificial intelligence for 'big data' analyses of
weather extremes, health, property damage and other variables. Second,
policymakers need to understand uncertainties in the ranges of probable
climate impacts and responses. Even regions that are proactive in
setting adaptation policies, such as California, lack information about
the ever-changing risks of extreme warming, fires and rising seas.
Research must be integrated across fields and stakeholders -- urban
planners, public-health management, agriculture and ecosystem services.
Adaptation strategies should be adjustable if impacts unfold
differently. More planning and costing is needed around the worst-case
outcomes.
Understand options for rapid response. Climate assessments must evaluate
quick ways of lessening climate impacts, such as through reducing
emissions of methane, soot (or black carbon) and HFCs. Per tonne, these
three 'super pollutants' have 25 to thousands of times the impact of
CO2. Their atmospheric lifetimes are short -- in the range of weeks (for
soot) to about a decade (for methane and HFCs). Slashing these
pollutants would potentially halve the warming trend over the next 25
years10.
There has been progress on this front. At the Global Climate Action
summit held in September in San Francisco, California, the United States
Climate Alliance -- a coalition of state governors representing 40% of
the US population -- issued a road map to reduce emissions of methane,
HFCs and soot by 40-50% by 2030. The 2016 Kigali amendment to the
Montreal Protocol, which will go into force by January 2019, is set to
slash HFC emissions by 80% over the next 30 years.
Various climate engineering options should be on the table as an
emergency response. If global conditions really deteriorate, we might be
forced to extract large volumes of excess CO2 directly from the
atmosphere. An even faster emergency response could be to inject
aerosols into the atmosphere to lower the amount of solar radiation
heating the planet, as air pollution does. This option is hugely
controversial, and might have unintended consequences, such as altering
rainfall patterns that lead to drying of the tropics. So research and
planning are crucial, in case this option is needed. Until there is
investment in testing and technical preparedness -- today, there is
almost none -- the chances are high that the wrong kinds of
climate-engineering scheme will be deployed by irresponsible parties who
are uninformed by research11.
For decades, scientists and policymakers have framed the climate-policy
debate in a simple way: scientists analyse long-term goals, and
policymakers pretend to honour them. Those days are over. Serious
climate policy must focus more on the near-term and on feasibility. It
must consider the full range of options, even though some are
uncomfortable and freighted with risk.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07586-5
[Classic from April 1st 2019]
*New NAACP Report "Fossil Fueled Foolery": Group Highlights Top Ten Ways
in Which Fossil Fuel Companies Fool the Public*
The NAACP's mission is to uphold and defend civil and human rights.
Accordingly, we are duty-bound to confront corporations wielding power
to manipulate systems and oppress communities to the detriment of the
sustainability of the environment and the wellbeing of all life on
earth. Even as we work with partners to advance sustainable and just
policies and practices, we are compelled to expose the ways that the
fossil fuel industry invests millions of dollars in undermining our
civil rights agenda. They manipulate academia, politics, media, and our
economy. We must break the tethers of puppetry that suppress democracy
and hold sway over these key systems.
*Some, but not all, fossil fuel companies and most, but not all, fossil
fuel trade associations, engage in these tactics!*
- - -
*Top Ten Fossil Fuel Industry Tactics*
1.Invest in efforts that undermine democracy.
2.Finance political campaigns and pressure politicians
3.Fund scientists and scientific institutions to publish
biasedresearch studies.
4.Contend that government regulations hurt the economy,
ratepayers, and poor people.
5.Deny or understate the harms polluting facilities cause topeople
and the environment.
6.Deflect responsibility-- Shift blame to the very communitiesthey
pollute.
7.Exaggerate the level of job creation and downplay lack ofquality
and safety of jobs.
8.Pacify or co-opt community leaders and organizations
andmisrepresent the interests and opinions of communities.
9.Praise false solutions while claiming that real solutions
areimpractical or impossible.
10.'Embrace' renewables, seek to control the new energyeconomy, and
quell energy sovereignty.
https://www.naacp.org/latest/new-naacp-report-fossil-fueled-foolery-group-highlights-top-ten-ways-fossil-fuel-companies-fool-public/
[31 years ago]
*This Day in Climate History - June 23, 1988- from D.R. Tucker*
June 23, 1988: NASA scientist James Hansen warns the US Senate about the
risks of human-caused climate change. *
*
*Global Warming Has Begun, Expert Tells Senate*
By PHILIP SHABECOFF and SPECIAL TO THE NEW YORK TIMES JUNE 24, 1988
The earth has been warmer in the first five months of this year than
in any comparable period since measurements began 130 years ago, and
the higher temperatures can now be attributed to a long-expected
global warming trend linked to pollution, a space agency scientist
reported today.
Until now, scientists have been cautious about attributing rising
global temperatures of recent years to the predicted global warming
caused by pollutants in the atmosphere, known as the ''greenhouse
effect.'' But today Dr. James E. Hansen of the National Aeronautics
and Space Administration told a Congressional committee that it was
99 percent certain that the warming trend was not a natural
variation but was caused by a buildup of carbon dioxide and other
artificial gases in the atmosphere.
Dr. Hansen, a leading expert on climate change, said in an interview
that there was no ''magic number'' that showed when the greenhouse
effect was actually starting to cause changes in climate and
weather. But he added, ''It is time to stop waffling so much and say
that the evidence is pretty strong that the greenhouse effect is
here.'' An Impact Lasting Centuries
If Dr. Hansen and other scientists are correct, then humans, by
burning of fossil fuels and other activities, have altered the
global climate in a manner that will affect life on earth for
centuries to come.
Dr. Hansen, director of NASA's Institute for Space Studies in
Manhattan, testifed before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources
Committee
He and other scientists testifying before the Senate panel today
said that projections of the climate change that is now apparently
occurring mean that the Southeastern and Midwestern sections of the
United States will be subject to frequent episodes of very high
temperatures and drought in the next decade and beyond. But they
cautioned that it was not possible to attribute a specific heat wave
to the greenhouse effect, given the still limited state of knowledge
on the subject. Some Dispute Link
Some scientists still argue that warmer temperatures in recent years
may be a result of natural fluctuations rather than human-induced
changes.
Several Senators on the Committee joined witnesses in calling for
action now on a broad national and international program to slow the
pace of global warming.
Senator Timothy E. Wirth, the Colorado Democrat who presided at
hearing today, said: ''As I read it, the scientific evidence is
compelling: the global climate is changing as the earth's atmosphere
gets warmer. Now, the Congress must begin to consider how we are
going to slow or halt that warming trend and how we are going to
cope with the changes that may already be inevitable.'' Trapping of
Solar Radiation
Mathematical models have predicted for some years now that a buildup
of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and
oil and other gases emitted by human activities into the atmosphere
would cause the earth's surface to warm by trapping infrared
radiation from the sun, turning the entire earth into a kind of
greenhouse.
If the current pace of the buildup of these gases continues, the
effect is likely to be a warming of 3 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit from
the year 2025 to 2050, according to these projections. This rise in
temperature is not expected to be uniform around the globe but to be
greater in the higher latitudes, reaching as much as 20 degrees, and
lower at the Equator.
The rise in global temperature is predicted to cause a thermal
expansion of the oceans and to melt glaciers and polar ice, thus
causing sea levels to rise by one to four feet by the middle of the
next century. Scientists have already detected a slight rise in sea
levels. At the same time, heat would cause inland waters to
evaporate more rapidly, thus lowering the level of bodies of water
such as the Great Lakes.
Dr. Hansen, who records temperatures from readings at monitoring
stations around the world, had previously reported that four of the
hottest years on record occurred in the 1980's. Compared with a
30-year base period from 1950 to 1980, when the global temperature
averaged 59 degrees Fahrenheit, the temperature was one-third of a
degree higher last year. In the entire century before 1880, global
temperature had risen by half a degree, rising in the late 1800's
and early 20th century, then roughly stabilizing for unknown reasons
for several decades in the middle of the century. Warmest Year Expected
In the first five months of this year, the temperature averaged
about four-tenths of a degree above the base period, Dr. Hansen
reported today. ''The first five months of 1988 are so warm globally
that we conclude that 1988 will be the warmest year on record unless
there is a remarkable, improbable cooling in the remainder of the
year,'' he told the Senate committee.
He also said that current climate patterns were consistent with the
projections of the greenhouse effect in several respects in addition
to the rise in temperature. For example, he said, the rise in
temperature is greater in high latitudes than in low, is greater
over continents than oceans, and there is cooling in the upper
atmosphere as the lower atmosphere warms up.
''Global warming has reached a level such that we can ascribe with a
high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship between
the greenhouse effect and observed warming,'' Dr. Hansen said at the
hearing today, adding, ''It is already happening now.''
Dr. Syukuro Manabe of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory of
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration testified today
that a number of factors, including an earlier snowmelt each year
because of higher temperatures and a rain belt that moves farther
north in the summer means that ''it is likely that severe
mid-continental summer dryness will occur more frequently with
increasing atmsopheric temperature.'' A Taste of the Future
While natural climate variability is the most likely chief cause of
the current drought, Dr. Manabe said, the global warming trend is
probably ''aggravating the current dry condition.'' He added that
the current drought was a foretaste of what the country would be
facing in the years ahead.
Dr. George Woodwell, director of the Woods Hole Research Center in
Woods Hole, Mass., said that while a slow warming trend would give
human society time to respond, the rate of warming is uncertain. One
factor that could speed up global warming is the widescale
destruction of forests that are unable to adjust rapidly enough to
rising temperatures. The dying forests would release the carbon
dioxide they store in their organic matter, and thus greatly speed
up the greenhouse effect. Sharp Cut in Fuel Use Urged
Dr. Woodwell, and other members of the panel, said that planning
must begin now for a sharp reduction in the burning of coal, oil and
other fossil fuels that release carbon dioxide. Because trees absorb
and store carbon dioxide, he also proposed an end to the current
rapid clearing of forests in many parts of the world and ''a
vigorous program of reforestation.''
Some experts also believe that concern over global warming caused by
the burning of fossil fuels warrants a renewed effort to develop
safe nuclear power. Others stress the need for more efficient use of
energy through conservation and other measures to curb fuel-burning.
Dr. Michael Oppenheimer, an atmospheric physicist with the
Environmental Defense Fund, a national environmental group, said a
number of steps can be taken immediately around the world, including
the ratification and then strengthening of the treaty to reduce use
of chlorofluorocarbons, which are widely used industrial chemicals
that are said to contribute to the greenhouse effect. These
chemicals have also been found to destroy ozone in the upper
atmosphere that protects the earth's surface from harmful
ultraviolet radiation from the sun.
https://www.nytimes.com/1988/06/24/us/global-warming-has-begun-expert-tells-senate.html
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