[TheClimate.Vote] June 29, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Sat Jun 29 09:19:51 EDT 2019
/June 29, 2019/
[benchmark moment ]
*US generates more electricity from renewables than coal for first time
ever*
In April, renewables provided 23% compared to coal's 20%
'The fate of coal has been sealed. The market has spoken'
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/26/energy-renewable-electricity-coal-power
[PBS video report]
*Why is it so hot in Europe?*
PBS NewsHour
Published on Jun 28, 2019
An extreme heat wave is gripping much of Europe, breaking records and
causing widespread misery. Temperatures soared well over 100 degrees
Fahrenheit in France, Germany and Spain. While the heat is coming from
sub-Saharan Africa, some researchers say climate change is exacerbating
and prolonging it. They warn more record highs are likely--and along
with them, more deaths. William Brangham reports.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61smwVyp8Iw
- - -
[Serious heatwave in Europe - report from CBC - 109F]
*Europe's heat wave breaks France's record high*
CBC News: The National
Published on Jun 28, 2019
Thousands of schools were closed, outdoor events cancelled and
volunteers were visiting the elderly as France and other nations battle
a record-setting heat wave baking much of Europe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fbg2gUsFKnE
- - -
[formidable]
*France records all-time highest temperature of 44.3C - (112F)*
Record for mainland France falls in south-eastern Vaucluse departement
as Europe swelters in heatwave
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/28/france-on-red-alert-as-heatwave-forecast-to-reach-record-45c
- - -
[California]
*Heatwave cooks mussels in their shells on California shore*
Temperatures lead to what appears to be largest local die-off in 15
years, raising fears for broader ecosystem
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/28/california-mussels-cooked-heat
- - -
[Heatwave background]
*Abrupt Climate Change Mechanisms Causing Profoundly Disturbing European
Heatwave: Part 1 of 2*
Feline "Shackleton the Explorer" puts on a brave faced cameo appearance
as a prelude to my exceedingly profoundly disturbing chat on the ongoing
European Heatwave. Almost 500 million people in Europe are being subject
to exceedingly high heatwave temperatures in June that exceed those
dangerous conditions in the 2003 July/August heatwave that killed 70,000
Europeans (50,000 in France alone). A very slow, very wavy, persistently
stuck Jet Stream ridge lies over Europe; carrying exceedingly hot dry
air from the Sahara Desert northward, humidifying it over the rapidly
warming Mediterranean Sea, and transporting this very hot humid air over
vast regions of densely populated Europe, with its lack of air
conditioning (2% in Germany; 5% in France).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=awnHOZ_zH6M
- - -
[Heat stress ]
*European Sauna: A Profoundly Serious Heatwave: Part 2 of 2*
Paul Beckwith
Published on Jun 28, 2019
A packet of air sitting over the Sahara Desert gets rapidly warmed up by
the relentless heat of the Sun in a cloudless sky, with single digit
relative humidity (dry) conditions, and 50+ C temperatures. Transported
northward by the stuck jet stream ridge, it crosses the rapidly warming
water surface of the Mediterranean Sea where it reaches relative
humidities of 70 to 80%. Saturated with water vapour, it continues
northward guided under the jet stream ridge to cover vast areas of
Europe with unbearable temperatures (reaching 45.9 C) and high
humidities. And it is only June; what will July and August be like?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fu1gvMkEhw
- - -
[classic Australian video about the body and houses and heat]
*Why 25 degrees really is hot in the UK | Did You Know?*
ABC News (Australia)
Published on Sep 17, 2018
Do the Brits just need to toughen up?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMqkuAb-HYg
Book review
*Petroleum and Propaganda*
*The Anatomy of the Global Warming Denial Industry*
by John W. Farley - May 01, 2012
...John W. Farley teaches physics at the University of Nevada, Las
Vegas. "Our Last Chance to Save Humanity?" a review of James Hansen's
Storms of My Grandchildren, appeared in Monthly Review in September
2010. He blogs at rabett.blogspot.com.
- - -
James Powell was inspired to write this important new book because of a
remarkable paradox: among climate scientists, there is a near-unanimous
consensus that global warming is occurring now, is largely human-made,
and will cause very severe environmental problems if humanity continues
business as usual. However, among the lay public the picture is much
more mixed: only about half of the U.S. public agrees with the climate
scientists. Why the enormous discrepancy?
Powell argues that "in the denial of global warming, we are witnessing
the most vicious, and so far most successful, attack on science in
history." Although Powell himself is not a climate science researcher,
he has an appropriate background to understand the field: he holds a
doctorate in geochemistry from MIT and became a geology professor,
teaching at Oberlin College for over twenty years. He has been a college
president at three institutions, and served for a dozen years on the
National Science Board. Powell's book is a sharp attack on the
global-warming denial "industry," a network comprised of corporate
funding, think tanks, popularizers, and propagandists, who all work with
a compliant mass media.
*Corporate Funders*
Powell details the support of ExxonMobil for denialism, but omits the
combative Koch brothers, owners of Koch Energy, the world's largest
privately held energy company. ExxonMobil is the biggest funder of
global-warming denialism, spending nearly $16 million on more than forty
organizations over the period 1998–2005. Powell also mentions in passing
funding by ideological conservative foundations, motivated by opposition
to government regulation of the economy.
*Think Tanks*
Chapter nine describes "Toxic Tanks"--think tanks that promote
global-warming denial. These toxic tanks have swell-sounding names
(e.g., "Frontiers of Freedom") that do not hint they are climate-change
deniers. Powell describes in detail four (out of a much larger number)
of these fossil-fuel-company-funded think tanks.
1. The now-defunct Global Climate Coalition (GCC) included Exxon-Mobil,
Amoco, Chevron, American Petroleum Institute, Shell, Texaco, U.S.
Chamber of Commerce, Chrysler, General Motors, Ford, and the American
Forest and Paper Association. The GCC, established in 1989, operated
from the offices of the National Association of Manufacturing. The GCC
hired a PR firm which produced a video to combat the 1997 Kyoto
Protocol. However, some of its member companies left the GCC; they
thought it too risky to be publicly identified with global-warming
denial, and feared the fate of Big Tobacco; it had ended up losing
lawsuits for health-care costs of smokers, ultimately settling for
damages of $251 billion. Beset by the defections, the GCC disbanded in 2001.
During its lifetime, the GCC established a research arm, the Science and
Technology Assessment Committee, which was staffed by industry
scientists. A committee led by Mobil Oil chemical engineer L. C.
Bernstein produced a confidential 1995 report which was circulated to
the members of GCC: oil and coal companies, electric utilities,
attorneys, National Mining Association, etc. In a stunning admission,
the Bernstein Report concluded that "the scientific basis for the
greenhouse effect and the potential impact of human emissions of
greenhouse gases such as CO2 on climate is well established and cannot
be denied." The report knocked down one of the most popular contrarian
arguments: that global warming could be attributed to changes in the
Sun's brightness. In opposition to the contrarian view, the Bernstein
Report stated that changes in the brightness of the Sun were too small
by at least a factor of five to cause the temperature change observed in
the last 120 years. It pointed out that the deniers had no alternative
theory of their own, saying "The contrarian theories raise interesting
questions about our total understanding of climate processes, but they
do not offer convincing arguments against the conventional model of
greenhouse gas emission-induced climate change."
Thus, while the oil companies and their hired hands were proclaiming in
public that global warming was not caused by burning fossil fuels, their
own scientists were saying exactly the opposite in private. If you have
never heard of the Bernstein Report, you have lots of company. It did
not surface until 2007, a dozen years after it was written, during a
discovery process in a California court proceeding.
2. Another ExxonMobil-funded think tank discussed by Powell is the
Chicago-based Heartland Institute, which originated as a Libertarian
propaganda outfit supported by Big Tobacco. The manager for industry
affairs for Philip Morris, Roy E. Marden, served for years on the
Heartland board of directors. The Heartland Institute raised $676,500
from ExxonMobil between 1996 and 2006; after 2006 Heartland stopped
identifying their contributors. The institute published a slim booklet,
The Skeptic's Handbook, whose publication costs were paid by "an
anonymous donor," and whose author, "Joanna Nova," is a pseudonym. Vast
numbers of the handbook were distributed for free--and in total over
150,000 copies have been distributed in fifteen languages. The
recipients include 850 journalists, 26,000 schools, and 19,000 leaders
and politicians. The largest single recipients are black churches (over
25,000 copies) and trustees at colleges and universities (over 20,000
copies). In addition, over 60,000 free copies have been downloaded from
their website.
In February 2012, too late for inclusion in Powell's book, confidential
documents from the Heartland Institute were leaked to bloggers. Damaging
revelations included the identification of some corporate funders of
Heartland: Microsoft, tobacco giant Altria, the pharmaceutical giant
GlaxoSmithKline, and the General Motors Foundation. The documents
describe payments by Heartland to some contrarian scientists: for
example, Craig Idso, head of an organization of climate change deniers
in Arizona, was receiving over $139,000 annually. The documents also
describe Heartland's plans for a "Global Warming Curriculum for K-12
Classrooms," and the planned "curriculum that shows that the topic of
climate change is controversial and uncertain--two key points that are
effective at dissuading teachers from teaching science."
3. The George C. Marshall Institute, in Washington, D.C., was originally
established in 1984 to flack for Reagan's Star Wars program (officially
SDI, the "Strategic Defense Initiative"), a scheme for shooting down
incoming enemy missiles. A scholarly study by the American Physical
Society found that Star Wars would not work, but nobody who mattered
minded at all. If you think the goal was to defend the United States
from attack, Star Wars showed itself to be useless against the 9/11
attacks. But if you think that one of the real goals of SDI was to spend
money, then the program was a big success: by September 2001, Star Wars
had homed in on the taxpayer for over $40 billion.
The Marshall Institute adopted other issues in addition to Star Wars,
including second-hand smoke and global warming. The Marshall Institute
proclaims that the health hazards of second-hand smoke are unproven.
Regarding global warming, the scientists associated with the Marshall
Institute have claimed at different times that (a) the twentieth century
is not unusually warm, (b) global warming stopped in 2005, and (c) in
any event increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide will stimulate
plant growth, thus fertilizing the earth. Therefore, increased carbon
dioxide will be good for the planet.
Some of the scientists at the Marshall Institute have scientific
credentials, but in fields that are remote from global-warming research.
For example, Sally Baliunas and Willy Soon are both associated with the
Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. If you think that global
warming is caused by increased brightness of the Sun, then Baliunas and
Soon, both astrophysicists, have the relevant scientific background. If
you do not think that the Sun is causing global warming, then Baliunas
and Soon do not have expertise in the relevant discipline.
The claim that the Sun is causing global warming was refuted decades
ago. If it were true, then both the surface of the earth and the
stratosphere would warm. But if increased atmospheric greenhouse gases
caused global warming, then the surface of the earth would warm, while
the stratosphere would cool. In fact, stratospheric cooling has been
observed, and it includes both natural contributions (volcanoes) and
human-made contributions.1
Since 1979, direct observation of the Sun's output by satellite has
established a high-quality data base. The output exhibits periodic small
(less than 0.1 percent peak-to-trough) oscillations, caused by the
eleven-year sunspot cycle. After averaging over the sunspot cycle, there
has been no increase from one cycle to the next in the intensity of the
Sun. The latest solar data can been seen at the website of James Hansen
and Makiko Sato.2
Baliunas and Soon published a paper in 2003 in the journal Climate
Research. It claimed that there was nothing special about global
temperatures in the twentieth century. Three editors for the journal
resigned in protest against publishing the flawed paper.
The founder of the Marshall Institute, the late Frederick Seitz, was a
distinguished physicist whose 1940 textbook, The Modern Theory of
Solids, was a standard in solid-state physics, albeit a field very
remote from climate-change science. Seitz served as President of the
National Academy of Sciences and then President of Rockefeller
University. Shortly before retiring from Rockefeller University, he
began working as a consultant to R.J. Reynolds tobacco company, helping
Reynolds to spend $45 million for research that was intended to
discredit or downplay the health hazards of smoking. Seitz and Reynolds
were especially interested in second-hand smoke. Seitz's scientific
credentials were impressive in their own field, but utterly nonexistent
in the fields of the hazards of smoking or climate change.
The Baliunas-Soon study was funded by the American Petroleum Institute.
The Marshall Institute received $630,000 from ExxonMobil between 1998
and 2005, in addition to funds received from the Sarah Mellon Scaife and
John M. Olin Foundations. Like the Heartland Institute, the Marshall
Institute no longer publishes its donor list. Baliunas was paid $52,000
by the Marshall Institute in 1997 for serving as a director. The CEO of
the Marshall Institute, William O'Keefe, was formerly the COO of the
American Petroleum Institute and chairman of the GCC, mentioned above.
One executive director of the Marshall Institute, Matthew Crawford,
became so disillusioned that he resigned after only five months on the
job. Crawford wrote that "the trappings of scholarship were used to put
a scientific cover on positions arrived at otherwise. These positions
served various interests, ideological or material. For example, part of
my job consisted of making arguments about global warming that just
happened to coincide with the positions taken by the oil companies that
funded the think tank."3
The current Chairman of the Board of Marshall is Princeton physicist
Will Happer, who was also my doctoral advisor at Columbia University in
the early 1970s. Happer has had a distinguished career in atomic and
laser physics, with over 200 publications in the peer-reviewed
scientific literature, but none of them about climate change. In spring
2010, he testified before a committee of the U.S. House of
Representatives that increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are
beneficial because they fertilize plant growth. It is a fact that the
source of carbon for plant growth is atmospheric carbon dioxide. In
support of his position, Happer noted that greenhouses use greatly
elevated carbon dioxide levels to increase plant growth.
However, a German scientist, Justus Liebig, discovered in the 1830s
"Liebig's Law of the Minimum": plant growth is controlled not by the
total resources available, but by the scarcest resource (limiting
factor). For example, in a desert, the limiting factor is typically
water, not atmospheric carbon dioxide. Experiments have been conducted
to seek increased plant growth caused by increased atmospheric carbon
dioxide levels in a realistic agricultural environment. These
experiments have yielded meager results, as demonstrated in an article
written by my University of Nevada, Las Vegas colleague Stan Smith and
published in 2000 in Nature, perhaps the most prestigious academic
journal in the natural sciences, or indeed anywhere.
Another study at Stanford University published in Science in 2002
reached the same conclusions. "Most studies have looked at the effects
of CO2 on plants in pots or on very simple ecosystems and concluded that
plants are going to grow faster in the future," said Field, co-author of
the Science study. "We got exactly the same results when we applied CO2
alone, but when we factored in realistic treatments--warming, changes in
nitrogen deposition, changes in precipitation--growth was actually
suppressed."4
Like fellow physicist Frederick Seitz, Happer has a great deal of
expertise, but none in the relevant scientific discipline (plant biology
in this case).
4. The Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) was founded in 1984 to
oppose government regulation in an astonishing range of fields: air
quality, dioxin, drug safety, fuel-efficiency standards, labeling of
alcoholic beverages, rent control, and security law. If that were not
enough, CEI also opposes government regulation of high technology,
e-commerce, intellectual property, and telecommunications. Whatever the
field, government regulation is always bad. CEI filed lawsuits in the
late 1990s challenging the Big Tobacco Master Settlement Agreement.
The CEI's "expert" on global warming is Myron Ebell, who claimed, in a
2007 interview in Vanity Fair, that the "hockey stick" paper by Michael
Mann and co-authors was wrong: the oceans are not warming, warming is
not causing animal habitats to shift, and global warming does not
threaten polar bears. Ebell has attacked eminent climate scientist James
Hansen because the latter was trained as a physicist, not as a climate
scientist. It seems fair therefore to ask about Ebell's training. He
holds an undergraduate degree in philosophy, and later studied political
theory at the London School of Economics and history at Cambridge
University.
CEI has been actively opposed to doing anything about global warming; it
funded a PR program, "Earth Summit Alternatives," which generated
articles and interviews opposing the results of the 1992 Rio Climate
Summit. In 1997, CEI offered to provide experts to promote the claim
that global warming is "a theory, not a fact." The experts included
Sallie Baliunas, Patrick J. Michaels, and S. Fred Singer (on Singer, see
below). In 2006, CEI ran television advertisements in fourteen U.S.
cities to counteract Al Gore's film, An Inconvenient Truth. Not
surprisingly, CEI has received funding from Amoco, Philip Morris, and
ExxonMobil, with ExxonMobil giving $2 million between 1998 and 2005.
*Popularizers and Propagandists*
Powell discusses and dismisses several non-scientist deniers, including
former weatherman Anthony Watts, British journalist Christopher
Monckton, Danish statistician Bjorn Lomborg, and fictional thriller
writer Michael Crichton. Powell also sketches a small number of
contrarian scientists; in addition to Frederick Seitz, Sallie Baliunas,
and Willie Soon, Powell discusses S. Fred Singer, Freeman Dyson, Richard
Lindzen, and Tim Ball.
Singer, a physicist, is a "utility infielder" of contrarian science,
with claimed expertise on second-hand smoke, the ozone hole, and global
warming. His swell-sounding Science and Environmental Policy Program
(SEPP) has only one employee--Fred Singer himself.
Freeman Dyson is a mathematical physicist at the Princeton Institute for
Advanced Study. His mathematical abilities are impressive, but he knows
very little about climate or climate science. Dyson is member of the
Jasons, a group of scientists, mostly physicists, who advise the
Pentagon. In the 1970s the Jasons did some computer modeling of climate,
although nobody in the group had any background in climate science.
Powell remarks, "If Dyson's last brush with climate models was in the
1970's, no wonder he scoffs at the models and derides those who use
them" (69). Dyson advocates developing a "supertree" that can gobble
carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and bury it underground or convert it
to useful liquid fuels. Selective breeding of plants goes back to Luther
Burbank over a century ago, but there is no evidence that such a
supertree is anything but a figment of Dyson's imagination.
Richard Lindzen actually does have climate-related expertise. He earned
his Ph.D. from Harvard, and holds an endowed chair in meteorology at
MIT. His CV runs to 350 publications, and he is a member of the National
Academy of Sciences. He helped to prepare the 1995 and 2001
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports.
Lindzen is convinced that the climate system somehow has negative
feedbacks that tend to cancel out the effect of any external change. He
proposed a specific model that he thought would produce negative
feedback, the "adaptive iris" model. Unfortunately for Lindzen, when
field measurements were made, they disproved his model instead of
confirming it. The vast majority of climate scientists believe the
feedbacks are positive, over the time scales relevant to humanity,
decades to hundreds of thousands of years, with negative feedbacks
(caused by weathering of rocks) operating on a longer time scale of
millions of years or longer.5 He claims that the mainstream climate
scientists have not proven global warming. This naturally raises the
issue of how much proof is required. Lindzen has such an extremely high
standard of proof that he believes that the link between cigarette
smoking and cancer is unproven.
Lindzen has accused mainstream science of selling out for money, while
claiming that skeptics of global warming have lost their grants.
Actually, Lindzen himself has been awarded over $3.5 million since 1975
from the National Science Foundation alone.
Timothy Ball, a less well-known denier, is a former professor at the
University of Winnipeg. Over the last decade he has given over 600
public talks on science and the environment, at the breakneck pace of
over one talk every six days. Between 2002 and 2007 he wrote thirty-nine
opinion pieces and thirty-two letters to the editor in twenty-four
Canadian newspapers, a rate of one a month. Despite this rapid pace, he
found time to write for the denier website Tech Central Station, and to
appear in both the denier documentary The Great Global Warming Swindle
and in a Fox News special, Exposed: The Climate of Fear, hosted by Glenn
Beck. Ball was associated with Friends of Science, a great-sounding name
but in practice funded by oil and gas companies. Ball then left Friends
of Science in order to establish the (even greater sounding) Natural
Resources Stewardship Project. Two of its three directors were PR flacks
for energy industry clients.
In 2006, Ball rashly initiated a battle that ended in defeat. In an
opinion piece published in the Calgary Herald newspaper, he claimed both
that he held Canada's first Ph.D. in climatology, and that he was a
professor of the subject at the University of Winnipeg for twenty-eight
years. Ball also disparaged another Canadian professor, Dan Johnson,
Professor of Environmental Science at the University of Lethbridge.
Johnson wrote a letter to the Herald accusing Ball of inflating his
(Ball's) resume, and claiming that Ball "did not show any evidence of
research regarding climate and atmosphere." Ball sued everybody in sight.
In the ensuring legal battle, Ball confessed to inflating his resume,
admitted that he had been a professor for only eight years (not
twenty-eight), and acknowledged that his doctoral degree was in
geography, not climatology. The Herald newspaper expressed confidence in
Johnson's letter, and wrote "The plaintiff (Ball) is viewed as a paid
promoter of the agenda of the oil and gas industry rather than as a
practicing scientist." In June 2007, the time came to show up in court;
with his reputation in ruins, Ball dropped his lawsuit (72).
Four years later, Ball appeared to have learned nothing from his defeat
in 2007. He wrote an article in 2011 for the Canada Free Press (CFP), a
conservative website, in which he attacked Professor Andrew Weaver, a
climate scientist at the University of Victoria, Canada.
Weaver sued. The CFP folded, issuing a groveling apology:
CFP also wishes to dissociate itself from any suggestion that Dr. Weaver
"knows very little about climate science." We entirely accept that he
has a well-deserved international reputation as a climate scientist and
that Dr. Ball's attack on his credentials is unjustified…. CFP sincerely
apologizes to Dr. Weaver and expresses regret for the embarrassment and
distress caused by the unfounded allegations in the article by Dr. Ball.
The CFP removed Ball's article from its website, and for good measure
removed nearly all of the 200 other articles that the prolific Ball had
written from the CFP website as well.6
*Politicians and the Mainstream Media*
The oil companies control rafts of state and federal politicians through
the system of campaign contributions. This is hardly news, and Powell
devotes little space to the hordes of Senators and Congressional
Representatives with campaign contributions from the energy industry.
The fundraising champion in the Senate is James Inhofe (R-OK), who has
received more oil company money than any other Senator, raking in over
$662,000 between 2000 and 2008. Over in the House, Congressman Joe
Barton has taken over $1 million in oil and gas company money during his
twenty-seven-year House career.
Ken Cuccinelli, Attorney General of Virginia, is a favorite of the Tea
Party, which was shown to be a Republican front group by Paul Street and
Anthony Dimaggio.7 Cuccinelli issued a Civil Investigating Demand (CID)
in 2010, demanding that the University of Virginia produce a wide range
of documents relating to Michael Mann, a former professor at Virginia
(and now at Penn State). Claiming to be determining whether or not Mann
defrauded the taxpayers of Virginia by researching global warming,
Cuccinelli demanded every document relating to Mann over the previous
eleven years. To its credit, the University of Virginia rejected
Cuccinelli's demands and fought him. Cuccinelli lost in court on August
20, 2010, but his CID was dismissed without prejudice, meaning that he
could file again. At the time of the original CID, three university
committees had exonerated Mann, and three more committees exonerated him
later. Cuccinelli attempted to continue his fishing expedition in August
2010 when he filed a new CID, but in March 2012 it was also dismissed,
this time with prejudice.
Powell compares global-warming deniers to various other groups,
including: the persecution of Galileo by the Catholic Church (the book
cover depicts the trial of Galileo); Lysenko and his associates, who did
a tremendous amount of damage to biological science in the Soviet Union;
Creationists, who do not believe in Darwinian evolution; and AIDS
denialists, who deny that HIV causes AIDS. In fact, "there is more
evidence that HIV causes AIDS than there is for any other single human
disease caused by an infectious agent, past or present," according to
Robert Gallo, co-discoverer of the AIDS virus.
Powell also attributes some of the success of the deniers to a failure
of the mass media. The mainstream media typically are limited to one of
two "frames" of the issue:
The first is open support for climate change denial by Fox News, Rush
Limbaugh, Glen Beck, etc. The second is "fake balance" from the more
responsible mainstream media. The media loves controversy--at least if
it can be kept within certain controlled limits. There must be two sides
to every controversy. So climate change deniers, representing 3 percent
of climate scientists (if that), are granted equal weight with the vast
majority of climate scientists, representing 97 percent of climate
scientists.8
In an Appendix, Powell lists thirty-three countries or regions whose
scientific academies have accepted the basic findings of human-caused
global warming, as well as sixty-seven professional societies. None of
these scientific academies have denied the basic science of human-caused
global warming. (Powell has excluded denier websites and front groups.)
*The Tobacco Strategy: "Doubt Is Our Product"*
One important source for Powell is Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway's
Merchants of Doubt: How A Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on
Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming.9 The global-warming deniers
do not have to win the argument, they just have to get a draw. Their
goal is to create the impression that there is a serious scientific
controversy about whether or not modern anthropogenic global warming is
really happening. The global-warming deniers are following today the
same strategy adopted by the tobacco companies decades earlier--as one
tobacco company executive proclaimed, "Doubt is our product."
*Climategate: Much Ado About Nothing*
Powell devotes chapter fourteen to "Climategate," which he justifiably
subtitles "Much Ado About Nothing." In November 2009, some still-unknown
person burgled the emails of the Climate Research Unit of the University
of East Anglia in the United Kingdom. Thousands of emails were posted on
the internet. The denialist network took a handful of emails out of
context, and claimed that the emails showed global warming to be a big
hoax. The burglary and ensuing propaganda uproar occurred just weeks
before the December 2009 Copenhagen climate summit, and it is hard to
believe that the timing was coincidental.
A series of investigations followed, in both the United States and the
United Kingdom. Every single one exonerated the scientists on the issue
of scientific integrity.
The denialists claimed that the emails proved that climate scientists
were admitting one thing in private while proclaiming something else in
public. Actually, the topics covered in the emails were also discussed
in the published scientific literature. The denialists were not familiar
with this because most of the denialists are not scientists and do not
read scientific literature.
For example, an email from climate researcher Kevin Trenberth laments
that "it's a travesty that we can't account for the lack of warming at
the moment." The background is that we know that the earth is
accumulating energy, but the temperature of the surface of the earth
experiences short-term increases and short-term decreases along with a
long-term increase. What Trenberth regretted was the lack of ability to
predict how the energy flows among the various parts of the earth
climate system (land surface, ocean surface, atmosphere, and deep
ocean). Trenberth's email was announcing the publication of his article
"An Imperative for Climate Change Planning: Tracking Earth's Global
Energy."10 In it, these issues were discussed in detail. The Trenberth
email did not differ in any essential way from the published article.
The email, as a communication from one expert to another, used shorthand
that made it possible for deniers to take it out of context and distort
its meaning.
What the emails did show was that the climate scientists were frustrated
by constant attacks by denialists.
*Sources, Dedication, and Limitations*
Powell's book ends with nineteen pages of notes and a seven-page
bibliography. He draws upon a number of sources, including Naomi Oreskes
and Erik Conway's admirable Merchants of Doubt; the Skeptical Science
website which features frequently raised skeptical arguments; the blog
realclimate.org (run by climate scientists); and helpful information
from Greenpeace.
Powell's book is dedicated to James Hansen, Michael Mann, Benjamin
Santer, and the late Stephen Schneider, "scientists of courage and
integrity." James Hansen is a NASA scientist and one of the leading
climate change researchers in the world. (For a review of Hansen's book
Storms of My Grandchildren, see the September 2010 Monthly Review.11)
Michael Mann, a physicist and climatologist currently at Penn State
University, was the lead author on the famous "hockeystick" paper in
1998, which became a lightning rod for attacks by deniers. Benjamin
Santer, a scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, was a
lead author for a chapter in the 1995 IPCC report. Santer was a target
for many personal attacks by the deniers for his role. And the late
Stephen Schneider, biology professor at Stanford and consultant to many
government agencies, was an early (1980s) activist on the global-warming
issue.
While Powell's book is invaluable, the climate science background
consists of a skimpy three-page chapter, including only one graph. Also
barely discussed are the impacts of global warming. And outside the
purview of the book is what to do about global warming.
One significant omission in the book is that Powell attributes the
attacks on global warming to fossil-fuel companies (mainly ExxonMobil),
and their hired hands, following the strategy pioneered by Big Tobacco.
He does not consider that efforts to transition to non-carbon-emitting
forms of energy also provokes opposition, or at least lack of support,
from the rest of business. Many non-carbon forms of energy are more
expensive than fossil fuels. Business wants to minimize costs, including
the cost of energy; renewable energy imposes additional costs on
business. Also, the largest consequences of global warming will start to
occur a few decades in the future, beyond the time horizon of big and
small businesses. Business has to meet a payroll every month, and many
businesses must keep the stockholders happy with quarterly statements of
earnings. A problem, however severe, that is decades in the future is so
far off that many businesses are unwilling to make sacrifices now to
prevent the problems in the future.
Many non-energy businesses are perfectly happy to sit out the battle,
letting ExxonMobil take the lead in organizing and funding
global-warming denial efforts. For their part, many politicians are
perfectly willing to do nothing, rather than impose additional costs on
their campaign contributors. The "flack" by the deniers provides a
wonderful excuse; since the science is (supposedly) uncertain, do not do
anything.
While the Republicans come in for a lot of justifiable criticism, many
Democrats are pretty bad also. Recall also that at the time of the 1997
Kyoto Protocol, the U.S. Senate passed a Byrd-Hagel resolution
expressing the Senate's opposition to the Kyoto treaty. It passed the
U.S. Senate by a lopsided 95–0. Despite the title of Chris Mooney's
book, The Republican War on Science, the Democratic Party is part of the
problem as well, as demonstrated by the bipartisan and utterly
overwhelming anti-Kyoto vote. Clinton and Gore went to Kyoto and signed
the Kyoto Protocol but did not bother to take the treaty to the U.S.
Senate for ratification where it would have been dead on arrival. So
Clinton and Gore got credit for good intentions, thus winning on
symbolism, while the fossil-fuel companies won on substance.
In the global-warming denial industry, the upper-level funders and
fundraisers must be aware that the think tanks are partisans of their
financial contributors. The lower-level employees may or may not be
aware. Certainly many of the consumers of the propaganda are unaware of
the industry funding. Not surprisingly, in recent years, many think
tanks have stopped listing their financial contributors. And a few
liberal and leftist writers have been sufficiently misled by the
denialist arguments that they have become deniers themselves. But I
would be astounded if they too were on the ExxonMobil payroll.
This arrangement is reminiscent of another large-scale opinion-forming
project, the Congress for Cultural Freedom, an organization that was
secretly funded by the CIA during the Cold War. The goal was to promote
intellectuals who supported U.S. power and capitalism generally,
criticizing the Soviet Union specifically and communism generally.
Participants were not required to defend each and every U.S. policy, and
this enhanced the credibility of the authors. The CCF supported
magazines and conferences, and at its peak had branches in some
thirty-five countries. Those at the top of the CCF knew about the CIA
funding, while some contributors to magazines did not.
CIA funding was kept secret for two reasons: first, to promote the
notion that Soviet citizens and their supporters were slaves to the
government, while Western intellectuals were free men and women. Public
acknowledgment of support by the CIA would ruin this pretty picture. (In
fact, the 1967 exposure of the CIA funding led to the CCF becoming
moribund.) The second reason was that many CCF intellectuals were social
democrats, and U.S. conservatives would have objected to funding them.12
The CCF/CIA analogy holds lessons for the climate change denial
industry. Those at the top of the organizations certainly know of their
funding by fossil-fuel companies, but many members of the general public
are unaware of the funding of denialist think tanks. Casual readers of
denialist blogs are unaware of the funding, and it would be an error to
assume that everyone spouting the denialist arguments is on the
ExxonMobil payroll.
*Conclusion*
Powell is not a radical or leftist in any way, but his book could be
evaluated bearing in mind Marx's dictum that the ideas of the ruling
class become the ruling ideas of the whole society. The Inquisition of
Climate Science explains in detail how the global-warming-denialist
ideas that serve the interests of the oil companies (and fossil-fuels
industry) become sincerely held beliefs for a significant fraction of
society. Denialist ideas are rejected by the vast majority of climate
scientists, and the oil companies themselves know better from their own
scientists (as the Bernstein Report mentioned above shows).
Nevertheless, they continue to promote and subsidize a denialist
literature blocking the crystallization of mass demands for far-reaching
social transformation, even though this is precisely what is required to
avoid catastrophic global warming.
My bookshelf holds a number of books about global warming, but The
Inquisition of Climate Science is unequalled, combining scientific
accuracy with clarity of exposition. It is comprehensive in its scope
despite its modest length of 232 pages. A typical chapter is ten pages
long, with cute titles and subtitles ("Aren't You Embarrassed, Mr.
Will?"). The book is written in a lively manner that is accessible to
the lay public; Powell is able clearly to explain phenomena that only a
few decades ago were unclear even to specialists. Inquisition is the
definitive popular refutation of many of the denialist arguments that
are frequently heard in the media and on the web. Everyone who cares
about global warming should have a copy.
https://monthlyreview.org/2012/05/01/petroleum-and-propaganda/
- - -
[The best lists of denialist individuals and organizations is at DeSmogBlog]
*DeSmog Climate Disinformation Research Database*
An extensive database of individual climate deniers involved in the
global warming denial industry.
DeSmogBlog thoroughly investigates the academic and industry backgrounds
of those involved in the PR spin campaigns that are confusing the public
and stalling action on global warming. If there's anyone or any
organization, (i.e. scientist, self-professed "expert," think tank,
industry association, company) that you would like to see researched and
reported on DeSmogBlog,
https://www.desmogblog.com/global-warming-denier-database
[WOTUS]
*Opinion: The proposed change to the definition of "waters of the United
States" flouts sound science*
S. Mazeika P. Sullivan, Mark C. Rains, and Amanda D. Rodewald
PNAS June 11, 2019 116 (24) 11558-11561;
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1907489116
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Army Corps of
Engineers (hereafter, "the agencies") have issued a proposed rule (1)
that would remove Clean Water Act (CWA) protections from more than half
of wetlands and one-fifth of streams in the United States (2). This move
sharply contrasts with reports indicating that US waters remain
threatened by storms, droughts, contaminants, algal blooms, and other
stressors. Even the EPA's National Water Quality Inventory detected poor
conditions in 46% of stream and river miles and 32% of wetlands (3). In
short, the proposed rule does not reflect the best-available science
and, if enacted, will damage our nation's water resources.
Despite the CWA's mandate "to restore and maintain the chemical,
physical, and biological integrity of the Nation's waters" (4),
controversy persists over jurisdiction. For decades, the protected
"waters of the United States" (WOTUS) included traditionally navigable
waters (TNWs), such as large rivers, lakes, and territorial seas, as
well as waters meaningfully connected to or affecting the integrity of
TNWs. Operationalizing this connection has become a flashpoint for the
science and politics of water protection...
- - -
The Trump administration's proposed rule largely ignores or
misrepresents several conclusions of the Connectivity Report and SAB
review. In relying more upon case law than science, the proposed rule
would remove protection for millions of stream miles and acres of
wetlands that keep waters and watersheds healthy. Some of our most
vulnerable waters will lose protection, including ephemeral streams,
non-floodplain wetlands, and some floodplain wetlands. The proposed rule
is inconsistent with the best-available science regarding scale,
structural and functional connectivity, and consideration of multiple
dimensions of connectivity.
*Delicate Balance*
Clean water depends on complex and highly variable interactions among
climate, geology, topography, land use–land cover, human perturbations,
and ecosystem processes operating across multiple spatial and temporal
scales. As such, the SAB cautioned that connectivity of any single
waterbody must be evaluated from systems-level perspectives, such as
watersheds and riverscapes, groundwater basins, and fluvial
hydrosystems. Although the contribution of a single wetland or stream to
water health may be small, the cumulative effects are striking. For
example, ephemeral and intermittent streams constitute more than
two-thirds of all streams in the conterminous United States (10), more
than half of which feed public water systems supporting about a third of
Americans. The proposed rule fails to consider watersheds from such a
broad perspective, instead excluding the ephemeral streams and
non-floodplain wetlands that maintain watershed integrity.
The proposed rule further deviates from science by improperly
recognizing structural connectivity (i.e., how waterbodies are
physically connected to one another) and functional connectivity (i.e.,
interactions among elements, such as the movement of sediments along
river networks). Both mediate the movement of mass, energy, and biota
among waterbodies (6, 10). Although streams are structurally connected
to downstream waters through networks of continuous beds and banks, the
proposed rule ignores the typical physical evidence (e.g., use of bed,
banks, and an ordinary high-water mark) and suggests potentially using
blue-line streams on U.S. Geological Survey topographic or National
Hydrology Dataset maps as a way to indicate a jurisdictional stream.
Although the agencies indicate that combining this information with
other measures (for example, with fieldwork and the relative size of a
stream, also known as "stream order") will be important to avoid
overestimating flow and erroneously concluding the presence of a
jurisdictional tributary, they fail to recognize the opposite problem.
In fact, the poor resolution of currently mapped drainage networks can
miss one-third of stream lengths relative to higher-resolution data
(e.g., Light Detection and Ranging [LIDAR]) and thus lead to a gross
underestimation of presence of streams...
https://www.pnas.org/content/116/24/11558
*This Day in Climate History - June 29, 2014- from D.R. Tucker*
June 29, 2014: On CNN's "Fareed Zakaria GPS," Henry Paulson and Robert
Rubin discuss the risky business of carbon pollution.
http://cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/2014/06/29/fmr-u-s-treasury-secy-rubin-on-climate-change-the-risk-here-is-catastrophic/
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/210939-former-treasury-secretary-gop-ready-for-serious-climate-discussion
https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2014/07/01/how-business-media-covered-risky-business-clima/199953
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