[TheClimate.Vote] March 30, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/March 30, 2019/


[Post Cyclone cleanup- searching for survivors]
*Inside the desperate rescue mission in Mozambique *
Hundreds of thousands of people are still without food, clean water, or 
homes almost two weeks after Cyclone Idai tore through Mozambique, 
Zimbabwe, and Malawi and left at least 700 dead.
Now, the first outbreak of cholera has been reported, with 138 confirmed 
cases in the port city of Beira, sparking fears that this disaster 
recovery will soon become a long-term health emergency. Villagers in the 
hardest-hit communities remain stranded while relief workers struggle to 
reach them on roads decimated in the disaster.

More than 100,000 people are now living in refugee camps. Many others 
are taking shelter in schools, churches, and orphanages -- overcrowded 
temporary homes surrounded by pools of putrid flood water, which some 
are still using to drink and wash in.

Whole towns are flooded, roads are blocked by mud, and bridges are 
ruined. VICE News tracked the destruction as far inland as Gondola, more 
than 120 miles from the epicenter of the crisis.
https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/pan5nv/inside-the-desperate-mission-to-rescue-people-in-mozambique-after-cyclone-idai


[AOC interview worth hearing]
*All In with Chris Hayes 3/29/19 | Chris Hayes MSNBC NEWS Today Mar 29, 
2019*
[Video Interview may be taken down, look for it on YouTube]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dooodfriv24


*For a flooded Midwest, climate forecasts offer little comfort*
Shuang-Ye Wu, University of Dayton - March 29, 2019

Flooding in the Midwest, triggered by an intense "bomb cyclone," has 
devastated parts of the region, which has been plagued by flood events 
in recent decades.

Floods are triggered by extreme rainfall events, often combined with 
ground conditions, such as saturated or frozen ground, that make it 
harder for water to percolate down into soil, which increases runoff.

Global warming has the potential to intensify the Earth's water cycle, 
which will alter the quantity, frequency, intensity and duration of rain 
and snowfall. As my research and work by others has shown, all of these 
changes raise the risk of floods for Midwest states.

A wetter Midwest
There is strong consensus among scientists that climate change will make 
many parts of the world wetter. This happens because higher temperatures 
increase the rate at which moisture evaporates from Earth's surface, and 
warmer air holds more moisture than cool air. For every 1 degree Celsius 
of warming, the moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere increases by 
about 7 percent, based on well-established laws of physics.

As the air becomes moister, we can expect more precipitation - but the 
increase is not uniform. Assuming that wind patterns don't change 
significantly, more moisture will be transported into some regions under 
the influence of storm tracks. This means that storm-affected areas are 
likely to experience larger-than-average increases in precipitation and 
flood risks, while areas located away from storm tracks are likely to 
have less precipitation and greater risk of drought.

The U.S. Midwest is located in a convergence zone where prevailing winds 
blowing from the east and west meet. The polar jet stream blows from 
west to east along the boundary between warm and cold air and regularly 
brings in storms, particularly in cold seasons.

Using data from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network, I have shown 
that from 1951 to 2013, mean precipitation for the United States 
increased by 1.6 percent per decade. In the Midwest, however, it rose by 
about 2.1 percent per decade, and winter precipitation increased by 3.7 
percent per decade. About half of this growth was caused by more 
frequent storms, and the other half can be attributed to an increase in 
storms' intensity.

I have also used high-resolution regional climate models to simulate 
future climate change in the Midwest for the period 2040-2070 compared 
to 1970-2000. In this study I found that mean precipitation across the 
region is likely to increase by 8 percent by mid-century, and winter 
precipitation is likely to increase by as much as 12 percent. The 
northern part of the region could see an even larger increase, likely 
due to greater evaporation from the Great Lakes resulting from higher 
temperatures and less ice cover in winter as the region warms.

Stormier weather
With more moisture in the atmosphere, storm systems are likely to 
produce heavier rainfall events. Enhanced moisture in the atmosphere 
also increases latent heat - warmth released by water vapor as it 
condenses into liquid drops in the air. This heat provides more energy 
to increase the intensity of storms.

These factors mean that climate change is likely to cause a 
disproportionate increase in heavy precipitation events in the Midwest, 
a trend that is already apparent when looking at historic climate data. 
 From 1951 through 2013, my study found that light and moderate 
precipitation across the Midwest increased by about 1 percent per 
decade, while heavy precipitation increased by 4.4 percent per decade.

Average precipitation for the region is projected to increase by about 8 
percent by mid-century, but heavy storms - those of a scale only likely 
to occur once in 25 years - are projected to increase by 20 percent.

More frequent flooding
All of these changes will significantly alter flood hydrology. A 2015 
study that examined discharge data from 774 U.S. Geological Survey 
stream gauge stations across the Midwest from 1962 through 2011 found 
that 34 percent of the stations showed significant increases in the 
frequency of flood events. The most pronounced increase occurred in 
springtime for floods associated with snowmelt, rain falling on frozen 
ground and rain-on-snow events. In addition to increasing precipitation, 
this analysis showed that earlier snow melting and changes in the 
rain-to-snow ratio caused by higher temperatures are also driving the 
strong increase in Midwest spring flooding.

Another study projected shifts in flooding due to climate change and 
calculated how frequently an average 20th-century 100-year flood - that 
is, large enough to have just a 1 percent chance of occurring in any 
given year, or once in a century - is likely to recur in the 21st 
century. For most of the Midwest, the authors estimated that the 
probability of such floods was likely to double in the 21st century, so 
that what was once a 100-year flood can be expected to occur on average 
every 50 years.

A third study, published in 2016, examined how climate change could 
alter streamflow in the Northeast and Midwest. The magnitude and timing 
of streamflow can affect water supplies and quality, infrastructure 
systems and aquatic life. This study found that over this century, 
average 100-year three-day peak flow levels were likely to increase by 
10 to 20 percent for the Midwest region.

Meanwhile, people in Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and South 
Dakota affected by the most recent storm are assessing the damage. NOAA 
earlier this month forecast that the historic floods will be followed by 
more rain and flooding this spring. Current flood waters are expected to 
remain for months.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative 
Commons license. Read the original article here: 
http://theconversation.com/for-a-flooded-midwest-climate-forecasts-offer-little-comfort-114140.



[also, we should tax stupidity, and punish intentional ignorance, 
execute criminal saboteurs of the future]
*The destruction of the Earth is a crime. It should be prosecuted*
George Monbiot
Businesses should be liable for the harm they do. Polly Higgins has 
launched a push to make ecocide an international crime
I want to tell you about the world-changing work of Polly Higgins.

She is a barrister who has devoted her life to creating an international 
crime of ecocide. This means serious damage to, or destruction of, the 
natural world and the Earth's systems. It would make the people who 
commission it - such as chief executives and government ministers - 
criminally liable for the harm they do to others, while creating a legal 
duty of care for life on Earth.
- - -
There are no effective safeguards preventing a few powerful people, 
companies or states from wreaking havoc for the sake of profit or power. 
Though their actions may lead to the death of millions, they know they 
can't be touched. Their impunity, as they engage in potential mass 
murder, reveals a gaping hole in international law

Until 1996, drafts of the Rome statute, which lists international crimes 
against humanity, included the crime of ecocide. But it was dropped at a 
late stage at the behest of three states: the UK, France and the 
Netherlands. Ecocide looked like a lost cause until Higgins took it up 
10 years ago.

She gave up her job and sold her house to finance this campaign on 
behalf of all of us. She has drafted model laws to show what the crime 
of ecocide would look like, published two books on the subject and, 
often against furious opposition, presented her proposals at 
international meetings. The Earth Protectors group she founded seeks to 
crowdfund the campaign. Recently she has been working with the Republic 
of Vanuatu with a view to tabling an amendment to the Rome statute, 
introducing the missing law.

Last week Polly was diagnosed, at the age of 50, with an aggressive 
cancer that has spread through much of her body. The doctors have told 
her she has six weeks to live. Given her determination and the support 
of those around her, I expect her to defy the prediction, which she has 
met with amazing fortitude. "If this is my time to go," she told me, "my 
legal team will continue undeterred. But there are millions who care so 
much and feel so powerless about the future, and I would love to see 
them begin to understand the power of this one, simple law to protect 
the Earth - to realise it's possible, even straightforward. I wish I 
could live to see a million Earth Protectors standing for it - because I 
believe they will."

She has started something that will not end here. It could, with our 
support, do for all life on Earth what the criminalisation of genocide 
has done for vulnerable minorities: provide protection where none 
existed before. Let it become her legacy.
George Monbiot is a Guardian columnist
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/28/destruction-earth-crime-polly-higgins-ecocide-george-monbiot


[Extinction Rebellion]
*Culture Declares Emergency - Extinction Rebellion*
ExtinctionRebellion
Published on Mar 27, 2019
Inspired by the work of Extinction Rebellion and @YouthStrike4Climate, 
Culture Declares Emergency invites you to write 'Letters to the Earth' 
as a response to the climate and ecological emergency we are all facing.
Deadline for submissions is midnight this Friday 29 March - more 
information at https://www.letterstotheearth.com.
Your responses will be read and given expression as part of a day of 
action on Friday 12 April in arts and cultural spaces across the UK 
including The Royal Court Theatre, @Shakespeare's Globe and National 
Theatre Wales and a host of others. More news soon!

Are you an individual or an institution that wants to declare a climate 
emergency? More than 28 institutions and 48 individuals from the arts 
and culture sectors have already pledged.Arts practitioners and cultural 
institutions are now invited to be part of the first wave of climate 
emergency declarers in the UK. Deadline is this Friday, see the website 
for details - https://sites.google.com/view/culture...

The 10 Working Principles of Extinction Rebellion
https://Rebellion.Earth/who-we-are/#p...
1.   We have a shared vision of change
2.   We set our mission on what is necessary
3.   We need a re-generative culture
4.   We hopefully challenge ourselves, and this toxic system
5.   We value reflection and learning
6.   We welcome everyone, and every part of everyone into Extinction 
Rebellion
7.   We actively mitigate for power
8.   We avoid blaming and shaming
9.   We are a non-violent movement
10. We are based on autonomy and de-centralization


[Plastic flotsam ]
*Global Linkages: A Graphic Look at the Changing Arctic*
Paul Beckwith
Published on Mar 29, 2019

My third video discussing the new UN Environmental Report titled "Global 
Linkages: A Graphic Look at the Changing Arctic" (Google it!). 
Mainstream Media focused on only one small part of the report (namely 
the question as to whether 3-5C of warming is locked-in for the Arctic) 
and ignored the rest of the report. The report contains many excellent 
graphics that I chat about; namely the cryosphere, permafrost, 
short-lived climate pollutants, ocean acidification, persistent organic 
pollutants, plastics, mercury, and biodiversity, including migration and 
invasive species.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MlX85wtvSFI


[Coldest is melting]
MARCH 29, 2019
*The Coldest Spot on Earth, Melting*
by ROBERT HUNZIKER
Joe Mastroianni, National Science Foundation - Public domain

Global warming is a fact of life that haunts society with consequences 
that hit hard, exponentially, but where nobody lives. It is happening 
hyper fast, and it's downright scary as major ecosystems of the planet 
turn upside down in nasty fashion.

But none of the ecosystems has the punch of East Antarctica. Its clout 
is humongous with a couple hundred feet of fresh water contained in ice. 
When it rumbles, scientists pay attention.

In that regard, as a potential savior in the face of irrefutable global 
warming dangers, America is fortunate to have a powerful fighting spirit 
in Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). She has strong instincts about 
the dangers of global warming. She is beating the drums for a Green New 
Deal, which cannot come soon enough and, in fact, may not come soon 
enough to save most life on the planet. Meanwhile, Republicans belittle 
her as foolhardy, not in the spirit of America's capitalistic 
enterprise. A socialist?

But, brushing aside off-putting Republican obstructionism, the planet is 
endorsing AOC, as it sends clear signals of impending disaster straight 
out of East Antarctica. After all, no signal can be as strong as the 
melting of the coldest spot on the planet, which is comparable to 
knocking someone in the head with a ball-peen hammer as a wake up call.

(As an aside: Nicola Jones has an excellent article about East 
Antarctica entitled: Polar Warning: Even Antarctica's Coldest Region Is 
Starting to Melt, YaleEnvironment360, March 28, 2019, which, in part, 
inspired this article.)

East Antarctica is the final frontier of global warming, but alas, 
overwhelmed by too much heat from ocean waters heating up way too soon. 
The evidence is compelling. AOC has got it right! Global warming is in 
full throttle, haunting 10,000 years of the Holocene Era's Goldilocks 
"not too hot, not too cold" pitch perfect planet coming to an end much 
sooner than scientists ever realized. It's happening that fast, and AOC 
knows it.

The scientific community has always maintained that East Antarctica was 
not a major concern. With ice up to three miles thick and temperatures 
on average running around -65 F, seemingly it was immune to the ravages 
of global warming. But, shocking new discoveries are turning heads in 
the scientific community.

For example, Eric Rignot (professor, University of California/Irvine and 
principal scientist for the Radar Science & Engineering Section at 
NASA's Jet Propulsion laboratory) gave a recent lecture "Sea Level Rise 
and What To Do About It" at The National Academies of Sciences, 
Engineering, and Medicine in Washington, D.C. on March 27th. Dr. Rignot 
has been responsible for groundbreaking research on the melting of 
glacial ice due to global warming.

Rignot opened his lecture by saying that polar ice caps are changing 
fast as a result of global warming, which is intriguing from a 
scientific viewpoint, But, for society at large, the bearer of bad news, 
stating: "I don't think you need to run for the hills, but I would 
walk." Which is a bold statement with grave undertones.

Rignot's lecture was laced with risks of rapid acceleration of glacial 
flow into the seas. It's the flow of glaciers that carries the biggest 
risks, for example, if glacier flow overall happens to accelerate six 
times, it would produce 12-13 feet of sea level rise per century. 
Fortunately, that's mostly in the abstract as of today, but some 
exceptions are now showing major cause for alarm.

East Antarctica is sending discomforting signals, and year-over-year 
scientists' opinions have been sideswiped by acceleration of climate 
change. It happens where nobody lives, until it hits home. Then, 
everybody will see what scientists see at the fringes of continents and 
on vast uninhabited plains of tundra. Global warming's impact is 
happening faster than scientists' models can compute. Hidden danger 
exists all the way from the North Pole to the South Pole. It's happening 
remarkably fast.

Nothing on the planet is so deeply troubling as East Antarctica melting… 
period! In fact, one of the fastest moving glaciers, the Totten Glacier 
alone contains ice equivalent to 12 feet sea level rise.

Here's the grisly truth about the consequences of global warming: The 
following statistics come from an article in The National Academy of 
Sciences: Eric Rignot, et al, Four Decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet Mass 
Balance from 1979-2017, January 22, 2019:

"The total mass loss from Antarctica increased from 40+/-9 Gt/y in the 
11-y time period 1979-1990 to 50+/-14 Gt/y in 1989-2000, 166+/-18 Gt/y 
in 1999-2009, and 252+/-26 Gt/y in 2009-2017, that is, by a factor 6."

That's acceleration-plus, to wit, ten year cycles, except for 2009-17 (8 
yrs.), demonstrated increasingly rapid acceleration year-over-year, as 
follows: 40 Gt (1979-1990), 50 Gt (1989-2000), 166 Gt (1999-2009), 252 
Gt (2009-2017) sure looks like rapid acceleration. Doesn't it?

According to Rignot, acceleration of Antarctic glaciers of 5-to-8 times 
already happened with the Larsen B ice shelf collapse years ago. 
Significantly, ice shelves hold back glacial flow like a hockey goalie, 
when he leaves the game the net is open, similarly when the ice shelf 
collapses, glacial flow rolls ahead faster and faster without the ice 
shelf to stop it. In Larsen B's case, sure enough glacial flow sped up 
5-to-8 times. That's big acceleration for a glacier. What if all of 
Antarctica's glaciers follow suit?

According to Rignot, "Theoretically, if that happens continent-wide, it 
would raise sea levels by 13 feet per century."

The main issue is: As the oceans have absorbed 85%-90% of planetary 
warming, those warmer waters are now registering heavy-duty impact in 
Antarctica.

Keeping in mind, it's the first few feet of sea level rise that takes 
down one city after another and then another, starting with Miami Beach 
where global warming has already forced the city to raise streets by 2 feet.

For a photo of raised streets in Miami Beach, Google: "Miami Beach is 
Raising Streets by 2 Feet to Combat Rising Seas" or "Miami is Racing 
Against Time to Keep Up with Sea-Level Rise."

Alas, the worst-case scenario is already in motion along shorelines 
around the world, including, the Trump Resort in Ireland permit 
application to "build a seawall because of climate change" (see here).
https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/03/29/the-coldest-spot-on-earth-melting/



[croaks missing]
*Alarming Study Concludes Frogs Are Undergoing a 'Catastrophic' Global 
Die Off *
Scientists aren't known for being alarmists. And that's exactly what 
makes a new study released Thursday on amphibians so, well, alarming.
The paper, published in Science, chronicles a "catastrophic and ongoing 
loss" of amphibians around the world. In the paper's self-described 
"conservative" estimate, 501 frog and other amphibian species have been 
ravaged by chytridiomycosis, a disease caused by a fungus that has 
traveled the world on the back of globalization and wildlife trade. 
Nearly 20 percent of those species are presumed extinct in the wild, and 
more species could be wiped out as humans speed along the sixth mass 
extinction.
Chytridiomycosis--caused by two strains of the fungus Batrachochytrium 
and known as chytrid for short--has spread from its original home on the 
Korean Peninsula to the rest of the world in an astonishingly short 
time. The disease causes amphibians to shed their skin and eventually 
die of heart failure. Chytrid has likely driven amphibian declines since 
the 1980s, but the two strains were only discovered in 1998 and 2013 
respectively. That has researchers playing catch up, and the new study 
is the first to take a global view of the toll chytrid has taken...
- -
The findings, which rely on data gathered by the International Union for 
the Conservation of Nature, other studies, and interviews with amphibian 
experts, show that chytrid has caused the single greatest biodiversity 
loss attributed to a disease, period. The researchers place chytrid 
fungus among cats and rodents--ignominious company--as the most harmful 
invasive species on the planet.

In addition to 18 percent of amphibians hit by chytrid going extinct, 
another 124 species have seen their populations dip by 90 percent or 
more, putting them on the cusp of extinction. Only 60 species have shown 
signs of recovery, though Pasmans said it appears that the worst of the 
epidemic has passed in places where the disease has been found, 
following a spike in the 2000s in western South America, the region that 
has been hit hardest overall by chytrid. But that doesn't mean it's over...
- - -
"With global change, the interaction between the fungus and the frog may 
change," Pasmans said in an email. One of the strains of chytrid fungus, 
which primarily affects salamanders, could also spread to Europe or the 
Americas, "regions rich in highly susceptible salamander species.

"This should make us reflect on the damage that uncontrolled 
globalization may do to biodiversity. Amphibians are currently the most 
emblematic example of this, but similar situations can happen in any 
organism. If we want to preserve biodiversity, we will have to introduce 
barriers."
- - -
Globalization has opened a Pandora's box of invasive species and 
diseases, and climate change is adding further stress.
https://earther.gizmodo.com/alarming-study-concludes-frogs-are-undergoing-a-catast-1833642045?utm_source=earther_newsletter


*This Day in Climate History - March 30, 2011 - from D.R. Tucker*
March 30, 2011: President Obama addresses energy and climate change in a 
speech at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HpRTtfmXXLY
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/03/30/remarks-president-americas-energy-security
http://blogsofbainbridge.typepad.com/greenfront/2011/03/joseph-romm.html
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/03/30/207788/drinking-game-for-obama-energy-speech-today/
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