[TheClimate.Vote] May 21, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Tue May 21 10:53:58 EDT 2019
/May 21, 2019/
[expanding fast]
*Wildfire in Alberta burns more than 100,000 acres*
The fire is seven miles southwest of High Level, AB
Mandatory evacuation order issued for an area near High Level, Alberta,
due to the Chuckegg Creek Fire. At 11:40 a.m. May 20 Mackenzie County
declared a State of Local Emergency and issued the order for residents
living south and southeast of the Town of High Level, Alberta. All
evacuees must register at the High Level Arena (10101 105 Ave). Crews
will be going door to door to notify affected residents. Manned
barricades will be set up on all roads to prevent unauthorized entry
into the evacuated areas...
https://wildfiretoday.com/2019/05/19/wildfire-in-alberta-approaches-megafire-size/
- - -
[fast growing ]
*Growing wildfire prompts evacuation of High Level, Alta.*
Canadian Press
Updated: May 20, 2019 11:30 PM EDT
HIGH LEVEL, Alta. -- A northern Alberta town and a nearby First Nation
are being evacuated due to the threat of an encroaching wildfire.
Thousands of people are being told to leave High Level, as well as the
Bushe River Reserve, via Highway 58 east of the communities since
highways south and west have already been closed due to the blaze.
The Chuckegg Creek fire has been burning for several days, but grew
substantially from Sunday, when it covered about 25,000 hectares, to an
estimated 69,000 hectares on Monday.
https://canoe.com/news/national/wildfires-close-alberta-highways-prompts-evacuations/wcm/53b0fbef-cc77-4270-b3c1-5f42f164d3e7
[Storms in March and April]
*FEMA-4435-DR-MO*
- The President approved a Major Disaster Declaration for the State of
Missouri on May 20, 2019
- For severe storms, straight-line winds, and flooding that occurred
March 11 to April 16, 2019
- Provides:
- Public Assistance for Andrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Carroll, Chariton,
Holt, Mississippi, New Madrid, Pemiscot, Perry, Platte, Ray, and Ste.
Genevieve Counties
- Hazard Mitigation statewide
SUMMARY 4435-DR.pdf
http://links.govdelivery.com/track?type=click&enid=ZWFzPTEmbWFpbGluZ2lkPTIwMTkwNTIxLjYxMDQwODEmbWVzc2FnZWlkPU1EQi1QUkQtQlVMLTIwMTkwNTIxLjYxMDQwODEmZGF0YWJhc2VpZD0xMDAxJnNlcmlhbD0xNzYxMzc3OCZlbWFpbGlkPXJpY2hhcmRAY2xpbWF0ZS52b3RlJnVzZXJpZD1yaWNoYXJkQGNsaW1hdGUudm90ZSZmbD0mZXh0cmE9TXVsdGl2YXJpYXRlSWQ9JiYm&&&100&&&https://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/USDHSFEMA/2019/05/21/file_attachments/1214946/SUMMARY%204435-DR.pdf
[Methane]
MAY 20, 2019
*Satellites yield insight into not so permanent permafrost*
Ice is without doubt one of the first casualties of climate change, but
the effects of our warming world are not only limited to ice melting on
Earth's surface. Ground that has been frozen for thousands of years is
also thawing, adding to the climate crisis and causing immediate
problems for local communities...
- - -
When permafrost warms and thaws, it releases methane and carbon dioxide,
adding these greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and making global
warming even worse.
With permafrost covering about a quarter of the northern hemisphere,
extensive thawing could trigger a feedback loop that could potentially
turn the Arctic from a carbon sink into a carbon source.
Thawing permafrost isn't just releasing more greenhouse gases into
air--it's also changing the landscape and destabilising the ground, and
so causing real practical problems for society...
- -
Other advances are also being made through the Glob Permafrost project;
notably the Permafrost Information System, which consists of a database
as well as a visualisation platform of satellite-derived information
relevant for permafrost monitoring. It includes the permafrost map and
land-cover change information, ground subsidence, rock glaciers and
information on lake properties for key regions.
With the damage that thawing permafrost can unleash on the climate
system and on the local environments, it is no surprise that this is a
hot topic. Scientists are drawing on all resources at hand to understand
and monitor the situation, which, in turn, arms decision-makers with the
information they need to take action...
https://phys.org/news/2019-05-satellites-yield-insight-permanent-permafrost.html
[military]
*EU Security and Military Community Considers Climate Security Issues*
https://climateandsecurity.org/2019/05/20/17415/
[worms?, worms]
*'Earthworm Dilemma' Has Climate Scientists Racing to Keep Up*
Worms are wriggling into Earth's northernmost forests, creating major
unknowns for climate-change models.
- - -
Native earthworms disappeared from most of northern North America 10,000
years ago, during the ice age. Now invasive earthworm species from
southern Europe -- survivors of that frozen epoch, and introduced to
this continent by European settlers centuries ago -- are making their
way through northern forests, their spread hastened by roads, timber and
petroleum activity, tire treads, boats, anglers and even gardeners...
As the worms feed, they release into the atmosphere much of the carbon
stored in the forest floor. Climate scientists are worried.
"Earthworms are yet another factor that can affect the carbon balance,"
Werner Kurz, a researcher with the Canadian Forest Service in Victoria,
British Columbia, wrote in an email. His fear is that the growing
incursion of earthworms -- not just in North America, but also in
northern Europe and Russia -- could convert the boreal forest, now a
powerful global carbon sponge, into a carbon spout...
- - -
In 2015, Dr. Cameron published the results of a computer model aimed at
figuring out the effect on leaf-litter over time. "What we see with our
model is that forest-floor carbon is reduced by between 50 percent and
94 percent, mostly in the first 40 years," she said. That carbon, no
longer sequestered, goes into the atmosphere.
Not only that, in a 2009 study she calculated that earthworms had
already wriggled their way into 9 percent of the forest of northeastern
Alberta, and would occupy half of it by 2049.
Ms. Shaw, of the Canadian Forest Service, found that 35 to 40 percent of
the plots she examined in northern Alberta contained earthworms. The
leaf litter, which can be more than a foot thick, was thin and churned
up where earthworms were present.
If Dr. Cameron's calculations bear out, it means the lowly earthworm
stands to alter the carbon balance of the planet by adding to the load
in the atmosphere...
- -
His biggest concern is that earthworms will penetrate even further north
in the boreal and spread into the permafrost. "Their impact alone could
be quite devastating, based on what we have been seeing in Minnesota and
New England and in parts of Canada," said Dr. Yoo.
No mechanism exists to eradicate earthworms from the boreal forest;
their impact is permanent. However, earthworms move less than 30 feet a
year on their own. Educating people to not transport them into
unaffected parts of the forest might help keep those areas
earthworm-free, said Mr. Wackett.
As scientists analyze the effects of the earthworms they know about,
they also are keeping an eye on a new invader: Asian earthworms, which
have made their way to southern Quebec and Ontario.
"I'm not sure what their implications are for carbon, but they're pretty
aggressive and they seem potentially to be better competitors than
European earthworms," said Dr. Cameron. "That's another issue on the
horizon."
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/20/science/earthworms-soil-climate.html
[more than estimated before]
*Earth's oceans could rise over 6 feet by 2100 as polar ice melts,
swamping coastal cities such as NYC*
Doyle Rice, USA TODAY Published 3:51 p.m. ET May 20, 2019
Miami? Underwater. Norfolk? Swamped. New York City? Fuggedaboutit.
Top experts say that in a worst-case scenario, portions of these and
other U.S. coastal cities could be lost to the sea by the end of the
century as ocean levels rise because of global warming, a study released
Monday said. In fact, on average, seas around the world could be as much
as 6.5 feet higher by the end of the century if climate change continues
unchecked.
This is an estimate that a group of 22 top scientists came up with by
using new techniques to measure how the ice will melt in the world's
polar regions. The primary cause of the rising seas will be the ongoing
melt of the gigantic ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica.
While admittedly a high-end estimate, "we should not rule out a
sea-level rise of over two meters (6.5 feet) if we continue along a
business-as-usual emissions trajectory," said study lead author Jonathan
Bamber of the University of Bristol in the United Kingdom...
- --
This is potentially twice the upper limit suggested by the United
Nations' climate science panel's last major report, according to New
Scientist.
Man-made climate change, aka global warming, is caused by the burning of
fossil fuels such as gas, coal and oil, which release greenhouse gases
such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane into the atmosphere. This extra
CO2 causes temperatures of the atmosphere and oceans to rise to levels
that can't be explained by natural causes...
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/05/20/sea-level-rise-rising-oceans-could-swamp-coastal-cities-worldwide/3742291002/
- -- *Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured
expert judgment*
Jonathan L. Bamber, Michael Oppenheimer, Robert E. Kopp, Willy P.
Aspinall, and Roger M. Cooke
PNAS first published May 20, 2019 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817205116
Significance
Future sea level rise (SLR) poses serious threats to the viability of
coastal communities, but continues to be challenging to project using
deterministic modeling approaches. Nonetheless, adaptation strategies
urgently require quantification of future SLR uncertainties,
particularly upper-end estimates. Structured expert judgement (SEJ) has
proved a valuable approach for similar problems. Our findings, using
SEJ, produce probability distributions with long upper tails that are
influenced by interdependencies between processes and ice sheets. We
find that a global total SLR exceeding 2 m by 2100 lies within the 90%
uncertainty bounds for a high emission scenario. This is more than twice
the upper value put forward by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change in the Fifth Assessment Report.
Abstract
Despite considerable advances in process understanding, numerical
modeling, and the observational record of ice sheet contributions to
global mean sea-level rise (SLR) since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, severe limitations
remain in the predictive capability of ice sheet models. As a
consequence, the potential contributions of ice sheets remain the
largest source of uncertainty in projecting future SLR. Here, we report
the findings of a structured expert judgement study, using unique
techniques for modeling correlations between inter- and intra-ice sheet
processes and their tail dependences. We find that since the AR5, expert
uncertainty has grown, in particular because of uncertain ice dynamic
effects. For a +2 degrees C temperature scenario consistent with the
Paris Agreement, we obtain a median estimate of a 26 cm SLR contribution
by 2100, with a 95th percentile value of 81 cm. For a +5 degrees C
temperature scenario more consistent with unchecked emissions growth,
the corresponding values are 51 and 178 cm, respectively. Inclusion of
thermal expansion and glacier contributions results in a global total
SLR estimate that exceeds 2 m at the 95th percentile. Our findings
support the use of scenarios of 21st century global total SLR exceeding
2 m for planning purposes. Beyond 2100, uncertainty and projected SLR
increase rapidly. The 95th percentile ice sheet contribution by 2200,
for the +5 degrees C scenario, is 7.5 m as a result of instabilities
coming into play in both West and East Antarctica. Introducing process
correlations and tail dependences increases estimates by roughly 15%....
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/05/14/1817205116/tab-article-info
[Science Friday - salt water moves under ground]
*Embracing The Salt And Adapting To Sea Level Rise*
The Ghost Forests Of North Carolina
As the frequency of tropical storms and droughts increase and sea levels
rise with climate change, forested wetlands along the Atlantic coast are
slowly filling with dead and dying trees. The accelerating spread of
these "ghost forests" over the past decade has ecologists alarmed and
eager to understand how they are formed and what effect they will have
regionally and globally.
One interdisciplinary group of researchers from North Carolina State
University and Duke University are examining the causes and effects of
repeated saltwater exposure to the coastal wetlands of North Carolina.
Using soil and sediment sampling, remote hydrological monitoring,
vegetation plotting, as well as spatial maps, the research team is
determining the tipping point for when a struggling forest will become a
ghost forest. According to ecologist Emily Bernhardt, their preliminary
findings suggest that climate change is not the only culprit in the region.
Agricultural irrigation and wastewater ditches that criss-cross much of
the Albemarle-Pamlico Peninsula facilitate the flow of saltwater
intrusion deep into the landscape, wreaking ecological and economic
havoc. Working with Brian Boutin, director of the Nature Conservancy's
Albemarle-Pamlico Program, Dr. Bernhardt and colleagues hope to provide
valuable scientific insights to local farmers, wetlands managers, and
regional decision-makers to plan for the further intrusions and
hopefully mitigate the effects.
Acting On Sea Level Rise In Virginia
Meanwhile, less than 100 miles up the coast from the Albemarle-Pamlico
peninsula, the cities of Hampton Roads, Virginia along the Chesapeake
Bay are facing some of the worst flooding due to sea level rise in the
country. In Norfolk, home of the United States Navy, tides have
increased as much as eight inches since the 1970s, and roads that lead
from the community directly to naval installations are particularly
vulnerable to flooding.
But in the last 10 years, Hampton Roads has begun to adapt. "When we
first started having these discussions, there was a lot of concern
about, should we be having discussions like this in public. What would
be the potential impacts on economic development or on the population
growth here?" said Ben McFarlane, senior regional planner with the
Hampton Roads Planning District Commission. "Now it's recognized and
people know it's happening. I think the strategy has changed to being
more of a 'Let's stop talking about how bad it is and how bad it's going
to get. And let's start talking about solutions.'"
The Planning District Commission supports the use of living shorelines
and ordinance changes that discourage developing in flood prone areas.
Norfolk has even been named one of the Rockefeller Foundation's 100
Resilient Cities in part for its efforts promoting coastal resiliency in
the face of sea level rise.
McFarlane joins Ira and Virginia Institute of Marine Science researcher
Derek Loftis to discuss how Hampton Roads is embracing the sea and
adapting to climate change.
https://www.sciencefriday.com/segments/embracing-the-salt-and-adapting-to-sea-level-rise/
- - -
[drainage, agriculture, drought, salt and groundwater ]
*The Seeds of Ghost Forests*
SciFri video 10 min
Published on May 15, 2019
Please support our video productions on Patreon: patreon.com/scifri
As storms and droughts increase and sea levels rise with climate change,
forested wetlands up and down the Atlantic coast are transforming from
vibrant ecosystems fill with dead or dying trees. The accelerating
spread of these "ghost forests" from New Jersey to Florida over past
decade has ecologists alarmed and eager to understand how they are
formed and what effect they will have regionally and globally.
One interdisciplinary group of researchers from North Carolina State
University and Duke University are examining the causes and effects of
repeated salt-water exposure to the coastal wetlands of North Carolina.
Using soil and sediment sampling, remote hydrological monitoring,
vegetation plotting, as well as spatial maps, the research team is
determining the tipping point for when a struggling forest will become a
ghost forest. Their preliminary findings suggest that climate change is
not the only culprit in the region: agricultural irrigation and
wastewater ditches that criss-cross much of the Albermarle Pamlico
Peninsula, are facilitating the flow of salt-water intrusion into the
landscape by allowing sea water to surge far inland and wreak ecological
and economic havoc.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQDRj6Huqgc
[reaction to Bill Nye the Fire Guy]
*Climate scientist reacts to Bill Nye: "The planet's on f@*&ing fire!"*
ClimateAdam
Published on May 15, 2019
On Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, Bill Nye went on a sweary tirade
about climate change. But does shouting at the audience about global
warming make anyone more likely to do anything about it?
https://youtu.be/Tu3jVmRppBI
*This Day in Climate History - May 21, - from D.R. Tucker*
May 21, 2010: In the New Republic, Al Gore notes:
"During the last 22 years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change has produced four massive studies warning the world of the
looming catastrophe that is being caused by the massive dumping of
global-warming pollution into the atmosphere. Unfortunately, this
process has been vulnerable to disruption and paralysis by a cynical
and lavishly funded disinformation campaign. A number of large
carbon polluters, whose business plans rely on their continued
ability to freely dump their gaseous waste products into the global
atmospheric commons--as if it is an open sewer--have chosen to
pursue a determined and highly organized campaign aimed at
undermining public confidence in the accuracy and integrity of the
global scientific community. They have attacked the scientific
community by financing pseudo-studies aimed at creating public doubt
about peer-reviewed science. They have also manipulated the
political and regulatory process with outsized campaign
contributions and legions of lobbyists (there are now four
anti-climate lobbyists for every single member of the House and Senate).
"This epic public contest between the broad public interest and a
small but powerful special interest has taken place during a time
when American democracy has grown sclerotic. The role of money in
our politics has exploded to a dangerous level. Our democratic
conversation is now dominated by expensive 30-second television
commercials, which consume two-thirds of the campaign budgets of
candidates in both political parties. The only reliable source of
such large sums of campaign cash is business lobbies. Most members
of the House and Senate facing competitive election contests are
forced to spend several hours each day asking special interests for
money to finance their campaigns. Instead of participating in
committee hearings, floor debates, and Burkean reflection on the
impact of the questions being considered, they spend their time as
supplicants. Though many struggle to resist the influence their
donors intend to have on their decision-making process, all too
frequently human nature takes its course.
"Their constituents now spend an average of five hours per day
watching television--which is, of course, why campaigns in both
political parties spend most of their money on TV advertising.
Viewers also absorb political messages from the same special
interests that are wining and dining and contributing to their
elected officials. The largest carbon polluters have, for the last
17 years, sought to manipulate public opinion with a massive and
continuing propaganda campaign, using TV advertisements and all
other forms of mass persuasion. It is a game plan spelled out in one
of their internal documents, which was leaked to an enterprising
reporter, that stated: 'reposition global warming as theory rather
than fact.' In other words, they have mimicked the strategy
pioneered by the tobacco industry, which undermined the scientific
consensus linking the smoking of cigarettes with diseases of the
lung and heart--successfully delaying appropriate health measures
for almost 40 years after the landmark surgeon general's report of
1964."
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/politics/the-crisis-comes-ashore
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