[TheClimate.Vote] October 30, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest.

[Richard Pauli]

/October 30, 2019/

[Wildfire Today]
*Can southern California wildfire conflagrations be stopped?*
https://wildfiretoday.com/2019/10/29/can-southern-california-wildfire-conflagrations-be-stopped/
- - -
[1.1 million without power in California]
*California Wildfires: Tuesday night wrap of Kincade Fire, PG&E Shutoffs 
and Getty Fire*
ABC10
California Wildfires: Tuesday night wrap of Kincade Fire, PG&E Shutoffs 
and Getty Fire
The latest information on the PG&E power shutoffs and the wildfires 
burning across California
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLx7flzpWh4


[Wired opinion]
*California's Wildfires Are the Doom of Our Own Making*
Matt Simon - 10.28.2019
The state is being squeezed by uber-wildfires and rising seas--climate 
change's twin agents of chaos. It's a struggle that will define us.
Every generation claims an event that defines it more than any 
other--winning a World War, or landing humans on the moon, or tearing 
down the Berlin Wall. But at this very moment, we have the dubious honor 
of living through an event whose impact will span generations: climate 
change. Never before has our kind faced such omnipresent peril, from 
supercharged storms to rising seas to drought to crop failure to 
biodiversity crises...
- - -
It's no coincidence that these [California] wildfires are all burning at 
once. Climate change has stolen the rain that normally would rehydrate 
the state at this time of year. Seasonal winds blowing from the 
northeast have sucked out what little moisture that vegetation still 
holds after a dry summer, turning whole landscapes into tinder. A single 
spark can ignite a wind-driven wildfire that moves with such speed 
firefighters can't safely confront it, even from the air, as flame 
retardants dropped from planes and helicopters blow off course in the 
gusts. Mounting evidence is also suggesting that climate change is 
creating ever-fiercer windstorms that tear through California. The 
result is what fire historian Steve Pyne calls the Pyrocene: climate 
change and land misuse conspiring to create a unique period in Earth and 
human history, a sort of Ice Age, but with flames.

History will remember the burning of California as a generation-defining 
crisis, nestled within the species-defining crisis that is climate 
change. California is being squeezed from both sides, with wildfires in 
the east and rising seas in the west. The state is in a palpable state 
of shock, flailing with stop-gap solutions like cutting off power to 
millions of people because Pacific Gas & Electric Company's equipment 
won't stop lighting fires, while on the coast, the city of Del Mar 
refuses to embrace the "r" word--retreat--and instead is taking its 
chances on trying to adapt to a force that will inevitably consume it...
- - -
These kinds of power outages further expose inequity in the state. For 
the poor, food spoiling in fridges comes at an enormous cost. For the 
sick and elderly, losing electricity sometimes means losing medical 
devices. Small businesses close and lose income. Gas stations can't pump 
gas. Meanwhile, the rich can head west to wait out the flames and smoke.
But the coast is also damned, even if its gradual, climate-change-driven 
erosion produces less drama. Here, too, inequality is glaring. A growing 
number of homes is increasingly at risk of dropping into the ocean or 
falling victim to catastrophic flooding. Those who can afford to move 
away will do so, while the less fortunate, especially in the low-lying, 
highly populated coastal areas of Southern California, will endure the 
encroaching waters until they are forced to become climate refugees. And 
Californians can't agree what the hell to do about the problem.
California is being squeezed by uber-wildfires and rising seas--climate 
change's twin agents of chaos. Somehow saving the state--all of its 
people, especially the poor who need help the most--will be this 
generation's moon landing.
https://www.wired.com/story/californias-wildfires-are-the-doom-of-our-own-making/



[Security threats - Beckwith video talk]
*Waging War Has Gigantic Carbon Footprint that is NOT even Counted in 
Overall Global Emissions*
Oct 28, 2019
Paul Beckwith
Horribly, some major industries that cross borders,  most significantly 
container shipping transport, and airline transport, for both goods and 
people, are not counted in global carbon budgets. The military carbon 
footprints in most countries are not counted either, or even calculated 
consistently and publicly reported on or even acknowledged. Many, like 
the U.S. military, which has waged war since 2001, have an enormous 
carbon footprint. This has to change, with our climate emergency nobody 
gets a free pass. In this video and the next two, I continue to chat on 
risks of collapse of the U.S. military from abrupt climate system change.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcCxbFV722A




[Tamino talks]
*Western Wildfire: Climate Change is Serious Business*
Posted on October 29, 2019 | Leave a comment
Over the last few years we've heard story after story about massive 
wildfires in the western USA which threatened thousands of homes and 
lives and cost people billions of dollars. California seemed especially 
hard hit, especially last year. For me, the story of a great-grandmother 
dying in a fire with her two great-grandsons in her arms, is a sadness 
too great to bear.

So I've been glad that this year, I haven't noticed such news stories 
about truly horrific gargantuan western wildfires. Until…now. In California.

Why, one wonders, has the situation gotten out of hand? There are many 
factors, but one thing that we know, without doubt, affects wildfire is 
the climate. Ask firefighters. One of the faces of climate change, is a 
change of the average weather -- and weather affects wildfire 
profoundly. The hotter and dryer it is, the more likely it becomes for 
fires that do spark -- and fires will spark -- to explode in size and 
fury with such speed we have no hope of keeping up. Ask firefighters.

The climate is changing, and in SoCal this shows most clearly as a rise 
in average temperature. Here's what it's been up to during the summer 
months (June, July, and August) since 1895 in the "South Coast Drainage" 
climate division of California:

The temperature increase is as plain as day. Higher temperature makes 
wildfire worse. Ask firefighters.

Another obvious weather effect is precipitation. However, we haven't 
really seen any trend in precipitation amounts during the southern 
California summer; there are hints, but nothing "statistically 
significant." What this means is that we can expect (for the time being 
at least) the same behavior we've seen in the past. We'll get wet 
summers in southern California, we'll get dry ones. The dry ones will be 
extra-vulnerable to wildfire, and they'll come at unpredictable but 
unavoidable times. And when they do, temperatures will be hotter.

The combination of dry and hot is getting far more frequent, because 
these days a "hot" summer is a sure thing. These days, a "very hot" 
summer is a sure thing. That's making wildfire worse, not just in SoCal 
but all over the western USA. Ask firefighers.

Some people try very hard to persuade you that fighting climate change 
won't help with the wildfire problem. Some even try to convince you that 
climate change has nothing to do with it. It's all about the fact that 
there are more people at risk, more property in vulnerable areas, so of 
course there's more damage. It's all about how we've mismanaged forest 
fire suppression, making things more dangerous. Climate change, they 
argue, is either too small an effect to be relevant, or none at all.

I suggest they talk to some firefighters.

Those risk factors are real. They even give us valuable clues about how 
to mitigate the damage. If we have less development in fire-prone areas, 
we'll suffer less. If we manage fires with a view toward not just 
suppressing fire, but suppressing fire conditions, we can help 
significantly. We really should pay attention to those things, and act 
on that knowledge.

But if you don't believe that climate change is a significant factor, 
not just a trivial one, then you need to talk to firefighters. A lot of 
them.

The American southwest is hardly the only place on earth suffering such 
conflagrations. Last year we saw them not just explode, but turn deadly 
all over the northern hemisphere, including places you wouldn't expect 
like the Arctic circle. The southern hemisphere hasn't gone unscorched 
either; they're feeling the heat in Australia and New Zealand too. Why? 
In Australia, a nation that's already inherently dry is getting hotter 
too. Here's what summertime average temperature has been doing in the 
Australian state of New South Wales (hard hit by wildfire, which they 
call "bushfire," right now; Australian states are big, like Texas) 
during the summer season (summer in the southern hemisphere being 
December, January, and February):

As hot as it is already in California, in Australia, in most of the 
world, because of climate change, it will get hotter. That means 
wildfire is going to get worse. Really. It's already bad, it's already 
serious. Imagine that as much as it's costing us now, it gets twice as 
bad. Imagine it gets five times as bad. Or more. That's what we're 
headed for, because as temperatures continue to rise it will transform 
the ecosystem, and in southern California and Australia and other 
places, much of that transformation will revolve around wildfire. Hotter 
makes wildfire worse, especially encouraging large wildfires.

The important question is: how much worse will it get? That's where 
fighting climate change comes in: how much worse it gets depends, 
significantly, on how much hotter it gets. I don't know how much worse 
it will get even if we do shoulder the burden of option #1: get serious 
about fighting climate change, or if we stick with option #2: do nothing 
(business as usual). But this much I do know: option #2 is a lot worse 
than option #1. A lot.
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2019/10/29/western-wildfire-climate-change-is-serious-business/


[Activism analysis and opinion]
*Do protests actually work?*
Oct 25, 2019
Our Changing Climate
In this Our Changing Climate environmental video essay, I look at why 
protest matters. Specifically, I look at environmental protests like the 
recent September climate strikes in order to understand protest's place 
in creating much-needed climate action. Via various organizations like 
the Sunrise Movement, Zero Hour, Fridays for Future, and One Million of 
Us, youth protests across the world are crying out to world leaders to 
act strongly on climate change. Greta Thunberg certainly has added fuel 
to this growing fire, but she's not the only climate protest leader. 
These movements show not only the strength and solidarity of a new wave 
of climate activists but the mounting pressure on politicians to create 
broad-based, inclusive, and transformative policies that combat climate 
change.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sP9TGpBGy08



[Lawsuits]
*Farmer to sue German government over failure to tackle climate change*
'New records are being set around the world due to climate change, and 
the adverse effects are already affecting agricultural production in 
Europe', says European Environment Agency
William Wilkes
The German grain production in 2019 has been mediocre and is causing 
massive pressure on the industry

After three straight years of crop losses due to soaring temperatures 
and crippling droughts, Heiner Luetke Schwienhorst has had enough and is 
taking Europe's most powerful government to court.

The dairy farmer from the edge of the Spreewald forest, just south of 
Berlin, blames German chancellor Angela Merkel's government for stoking 
climate change and wants to know why efforts to rein in greenhouse gas 
emissions have fallen short and put his livelihood at risk.

"We've lost over a third of our millet crop, half our hay crop," Mr 
Schwienhorst said. "It's a catastrophe."

At the end of October, judges in the German capital will hear his case, 
which is backed by environmental group Greenpeace and two other farmers...
- - -
For Mr Schwienhorst and other farmers near Berlin, this has come too late.

The final grain haul for 2019 was just as grim as the previous year, 
according to the region's agricultural association. Their plight shows 
how farmers in Europe, one of the world's leading producers and 
exporters, are on the front line of global warming.

Rising temperatures in Italy have created a plague of crop-eating bugs, 
causing hundreds of millions of euros in losses.

The Swiss government has recently said that last year's record 
temperatures, followed up by more heat waves this year, bring "grave 
consequences" for agriculture.

And in Finland, a major producer of spring barley and oats, soil 
fertility is declining as more frequent wet and dry spells strip the 
earth of nutrients, according to a recent European Environment Agency 
report.

"New records are being set around the world due to climate change, and 
the adverse effects are already affecting agricultural production in 
Europe, especially in the south," said Hans Bruyninckx, the agency's 
executive director.

Asked about Mr Schwienhorst's lawsuit, a spokesman for Germany's 
environment ministry said the government would not comment on ongoing 
legal cases.

He acknowledged Germany will miss its 2020 climate goals and said it 
will instead focus on recent plans to hit more stringent 2030 targets.

Turning to the courts has become an increasingly common weapon in the 
battle to curb environmental pollution.

Exxon Mobil is on trial in the US for allegedly hiding its early 
knowledge of climate change, while the US Supreme Court this week let 
government officials press ahead with three lawsuits that accuse more 
than a dozen oil and gas companies of contributing to climate change.
- - -
The European Union does have plentiful grain supplies – at least for the 
time being. This season's soft-wheat harvest in France, the bloc's top 
producer, was among the largest on record, alongside bumper barley 
supplies. That is helping to boost global wheat reserves to an all-time 
high this season, the USDA forecasts.

Warmer temperatures have aided crops in some regions, with the 
winter-wheat area in Russia - the top shipper - expanding due to 
improved seed quality and mild weather. Climate change may benefit wheat 
and corn yields in eastern Europe, according to a European Commission paper.

Rising temperatures are impacting agriculture around the world, not just 
in Europe. The best growing conditions for many crops are shifting away 
from the tropics, and from lower lying land, to cooler climes. Fish and 
other underwater catches, too, are migrating to colder seas as their 
habitats warm...
- -
Europe is particularly exposed because its weather is dominated by the 
jet stream. Disturbances to the narrow bands of air that blow west to 
east across the Atlantic have allowed hot blasts to drift in from the 
Sahara desert, further damaging crops that evolved to cope with milder 
conditions.

In Italy, the rising temperatures have unleashed a swarm of Brown 
marmorated stink bugs, a pest that feeds on grain crops and orchard fruits.

"It's an emergency," said Nicola Dalmonte, owner of a 50-hectare fruit 
farm on the outskirts of Ravenna, who this year lost around 30 per cent 
of his crops to the bugs. He has covered his peach and apricot plants in 
nets, but said that has sometimes made things worse when the insects get 
trapped inside. "They breed explosively."

Celine Imart, a farmer near Toulouse, France, said in recent years there 
have been many unusual weather events affecting the land her family has 
cultivated for six generations, producing crops like sunflowers, peas, 
sorghum, soybeans and corn.

Hailstorms are becoming more intense and damaged as much as 50 per cent 
of this season's crops.

Back in Germany, Mr Schwienhorst hopes his case will help raise 
awareness of climate change. He wants the court to force the government 
to come up with a plan to hit its lapsed 2020 climate goals as soon as 
possible. He argues failure to honour the pledges has infringed 
property, occupational and health rights.

"It's not that I blame Ms Merkel," Mr Schwienhorst said. "This is a 
problem caused by our whole society."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/farmer-court-germany-government-climate-change-crop-failure-a9174451.html



[at Harvard University]
*How America Lost Its Mind*
Americans are losing touch with reality. On issues from climate change 
to immigration, tens of millions of Americans have opinions wildly at 
odds with the facts, rendering them unable to think sensibly about 
politics. In How America Lost Its Mind, I examine the rise of a world of 
"alternative facts" and the resulting consequences.

We don't have to search far for the forces that are misleading us and 
tearing us apart: politicians for whom division is a strategy; talk show 
hosts who have made an industry of outrage; news outlets that wield 
conflict as a marketing tool; and partisan organizations and foreign 
agents who spew disinformation to advance a cause, make a buck, or 
simply amuse themselves. The consequences are severe. How America Lost 
Its Mind maps a political landscape convulsed with distrust, gridlock, 
brinksmanship, petty feuding, and deceptive messaging.

As philosopher Hannah Arendt wrote decades ago, demagogues thrive when 
"people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and 
false, no longer exists." In How America Lost Its Mind, I make the case 
for engaging on the side of truth.

To obtain a copy:
https://scholar.harvard.edu/thomaspatterson/how-america-lost-its-mind


*This Day in Climate History - October 30, 2003 - from D.R. Tucker*
The US Senate rejects the McCain-Lieberman Climate Stewardship Act of 
2003 in a 55-43 vote. The bill failed after an all-out assault on the 
legislation aided by ExxonMobil-funded "researcher" Willie Soon.

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/31/us/senate-defeats-climate-bill-but-proponents-see-silver-lining.html
http://youtu.be/eJFZ88EH6i4
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