[TheClimate.Vote] December 28, 2020 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/*December 28, 2020*/

[touching all]
*For young Californians, climate change is a mental health crisis too*
By BRIAN CONTRERAS
DEC. 27, 2020
Maddie Cole in eighth grade stopped running cross country. She’d 
competed the year before, but the air quality in her native Sacramento 
was so bad that she got sick during a race; she soon learned she had asthma.

The next year the sky above Sacramento turned gray with smoke from the 
2018 Camp fire. Maddie and her classmates went to school with masks on. 
“It felt,” she said, “like a futuristic apocalypse.”

The situation has only worsened as wildfires and their devastation have 
become so routine that she and her classmates are “just used to it,” 
said Maddie, now 16 and a junior. This fall “it was just like, ‘Yeah, 
California’s on fire again. It’s that time of year.’”

Neither the polluted air nor the wildfires punctuating Maddie’s 
adolescence are random. Both are being exacerbated by climate change, 
and the future they portend has left Maddie feeling helpless, anxious 
and scared. Climate anxiety and other mental health struggles are 
rampant among Maddie’s generation, according to experts who warn that 
young Californians are growing up in the shadow of looming catastrophe — 
and dealing with the emotional and psychological fallout that comes with it.

The scope of the problem is enormous.

The Earth’s temperature has skyrocketed since the Industrial Age, fueled 
by human activity and accompanying greenhouse gas emissions. Dramatic 
reductions in those emissions, and in fossil fuel use, will be necessary 
to prevent temperatures from reaching a tipping point by 2030, the 
United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned two 
years ago.

Without reducing those emissions, climate change will make natural 
disasters, food shortages and rising sea levels even worse, experts say. 
The world is not yet on track to make the changes necessary to 
ameliorate its worst effects.

Such dire predictions can affect mental health, particularly among young 
people. Polls have found that climate change-related stress affects 
daily life for 47% of America’s young adults; over half of teenagers 
feel afraid and angry about climate change; and 72% of young adults are 
concerned that it will harm their community.

Climate depression played a central role in teenage activist Greta 
Thunberg’s political awakening, and according to Varshini Prakash — 
executive director of youth-focused climate activism group the Sunrise 
Movement — it’s not uncommon for her group to meet kids who have 
contemplated suicide over the climate crisis.

“Surveys have found that young people often experience more fear, 
sadness and anger regarding climate change than their older 
counterparts, as well as an increased sense of helplessness or 
hopelessness,” said Hasina Samji, an assistant professor at Simon Fraser 
University who has explored the mental toll of climate change on young 
people, in an email. In particular, “areas that suffer direct, visible 
effects of climate change … have been observed to face acute impacts 
such as trauma, shock and PTSD.”

Young Angelenos described similar emotions and mental stress when 
contemplating the climate crisis. Kate Shapiro, 15, said humanity’s 
selfishness, greed and “lack of foresight” about the warming planet 
contributes to her depression. Sarah Allen, 25, said she shudders in 
“real terror” when contemplating the plight of future generations. And 
Sam Jackson, 29, said the enormity of the problem leaves him feeling 
“exhausted.”

To cope, many have become activists or taken steps to reduce their own 
effect on the planet. Some go vegetarian or vegan. Others have opted not 
to buy a car, even in car-centric Los Angeles, or are making plans to 
leave Los Angeles before the fires and droughts become unbearable. And a 
few said the looming environmental disaster has discouraged them from 
having children.

“As I’ve gotten to learn more about how much or how disproportionate an 
impact an additional American has … [I’m] less and less inclined to 
create a new person,” said Elliott Lee, 26, of Palms.
- -
Lifestyle changes “empower individuals to feel like they can act,” said 
Abby Austin, 23, the political lead for the Sunrise Movement’s L.A. 
branch — echoing medical professionals who say that even small personal 
actions can help people feel like broader change remains possible.

Getting involved with activism can serve a similar function. Many young 
Californians said volunteering with climate advocacy groups like the 
Sunrise Movement or for politicians who have made climate change a 
central plank in their platforms has given them a sense of purpose.

“A lot of the people who are in Sunrise,” Austin said, “are literally 
organizing out of climate anxiety

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-12-27/for-young-californians-climate-change-is-a-mental-health-crisis-too



[construction good news]
*Passive House . A low carbon future for our homes?*
Dec 27, 2020
Just Have a Think
Passive House or Passivhaus, whichever you prefer. These amazing ultra 
low energy buildings have been around for thirty years and save their 
owners thousands in energy bills each year, not to mention the huge 
reduction in carbon dioxide emissions up into the atmosphere. Some broad 
minded builders have embraced the techniques, but not yet enough to 
ensure a transformation in our future building stock. So what are the 
principles of Passive House?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7WWHhcMCdU



[Video and text]
*International Scholars Warning on Societal Disruption & Collapse*
Dec 26, 2020
Facing Future
More than 500 scientists and scholars have signed the *International 
Scholars Warning on Societal Disruption & Collapse*. It is a stark 
warning about the possibilities  of societal disruption and event 
collapse. These subjects can no longer be avoided in 'polite 
conversation' with the pretense of not wanting to upset people. What you 
don't discuss, you don't understand, and if it is a possible reality we 
may all need to face, then it is imperative that we allow ourselves to 
enter into it in conversation.
Engage further at http://www.ScholarsWarning.net
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0frHoqXLB0
- -
[Big warnings signed by many]
*University of Cumbria*
IFLAS - Initiative for Leadership and Sustainability
Sunday, 6 December 2020
International Scholars Warning on Societal Disruption and Collapse
If you are a scientist or scholar you can still sign the letter before 
the end of 2020, and a final list will be published in January.

A public letter signed by over 250 scientists and scholars from 30 
countries, calls on policy makers to engage more with the growing risk 
of societal disruption and collapse due to damage to the climate and 
environment. The letter invites focus on how to slow, prepare for, and 
help those already suffering from, such disruptions. The signatories are 
specialists in a range of subject areas that relate to this challenge, 
who commonly believe it is time to listen to all the scholarship on 
humanity’s predicament.

The referenced letter and a full list of signatories, at the moment of 
publication on Dec 6th 2020, follows below. In English, an edited 
version of the letter appears in The Guardian (Monday 7th 2020). The 
letter will also be published in French.

If you could bring more attention to this letter, please use 
#scholarswarning #breakdownwarning hashtags in your social media posts. 
You can follow this Scholars Warning on twitter and direct people to 
this page via www.scholarswarning.net

*Subject: Only if we discuss collapse might we prepare*

    As scientists and scholars from around the world, we call on
    policymakers to engage openly with the risk of disruption and even
    collapse of our societies. After five years of failing to reduce
    carbon emissions in line with the Paris Climate Accord (1), we must
    now face the consequences.

    While bold and fair efforts to cut emissions and naturally drawdown
    carbon are essential, researchers in many areas now consider
    societal collapse to be a credible scenario this century (2a & 2b).
    A range of views exist on the location, extent, timing, permanence
    and cause of such disruptions; but the way modern societies exploit
    people and nature is a common concern (3a & 3b).

    Only if policymakers begin to discuss this threat of societal
    collapse might communities and nations begin to prepare and so
    reduce its likelihood, speed, severity, harm to the most vulnerable,
    and to nature.

    Some armed services already see collapse as an important scenario,
    requiring planning (4a and 4b). Surveys show many people now
    anticipate societal collapse (5). Sadly that is already the
    experience or memory of many communities in the Global South (6).
    However, the topic is not well reported in the media, and mostly
    absent from civil society and politics.

    When potential collapse is covered by the media, it typically cites
    people who condemn discussion of the topic. Ill-informed
    speculations, such as on foreign misinformation campaigns, or
    impacts on mental health and motivation, will not support serious
    discussion (7). Rather, such claims risk betraying the thousands of
    activists and community leaders whose anticipation of collapse is
    part of their motivation to push for change on climate, ecology, and
    social justice.

    People who care about environmental and humanitarian issues should
    not be discouraged from discussing the risks of societal disruption
    or collapse. That could risk agendas being driven by people with
    less commitment to such values.

    Some of us believe that a transition to a new form of society may be
    possible. That will involve bold action to reduce damage to the
    climate, nature and other people, including preparations for major
    disruptions to everyday life. We are united in regarding efforts to
    suppress discussion of collapse as hindering the possibility of that
    transition.

    We have experienced how emotionally challenging it is to recognise
    the damage being done, along with the growing threat to our own way
    of life. We also know the great sense of fellowship that can arise
    (8). It is time to invite each other into difficult conversations,
    so we can reduce our complicity in the harm, and be creative to make
    the best of a turbulent future (9).

    Signed, in a personal capacity, by:
    [See website]

https://iflas.blogspot.com/2020/12/international-scholars-warning-on.html



[classic video relates to text below]
*A Walk with Jem Bendell | Extinction Rebellion*
Oct 7, 2019
Extinction Rebellion
"Someone told me people come to XR because of fear, but they stay in it 
because of love.", Jim Bendell.

Dr Bendell is a Professor of Sustainability Leadership and Founder of 
the Institute for Leadership and Sustainability (IFLAS) at the 
University of Cumbria (UK). He focuses on leadership and communications 
for social change, as well as approaches that may help humanity face 
climate-induced disruption.

Dr Bendell's most widely read paper can be found here:
Deep Adaptation: A Map for Navigating ClimateTragedy
IFLAS Occasional Paper 2
July 27th 2018
Professor Jem Bendell BA (Hons) PhD
https://www.lifeworth.com/deepadaptation.pdf
https://youtu.be/3jtKemrEMzA

- -

[NYTimes]
*The Darkest Timeline*
“Deep Adaptation” made people confront the end of the world from climate 
change. Does it matter if it’s not correct?
Jonah Engel Bromwich
Dec. 26, 2020, 5:00 a.m. ET
Two years ago, an influential paper suggested that we were too late to 
save the world.

This paper helped rewrite the direction of British universities, played 
a major role in reshaping the missions of climate organizations and 
religious institutions, had a significant impact on British activism and 
has been translated into at least nine languages. It made its author 
into something of a climate change messiah.

The report’s prediction of an imminent and unavoidable “societal 
collapse” from climate change had a striking and immediate effect on 
many of its readers. Andrew Medhurst, a longtime banker, cited it as one 
of four factors that made him he leave his job in finance to become a 
radical climate activist. Joy Carter, the head of a British university, 
moved immediately to incorporate it into her curriculum.

Alison Green, then an academic, printed it out and passed it out at 
executive meetings at her university. Galen Hall, now a researcher in 
the climate and development lab at Brown University, said that it led 
him to question the value of the climate activism to which he had been 
committed.

Other high-profile papers, like “Trajectories of the Earth System in the 
Anthropocene,” also from 2018, and Timothy Lenton’s overview of tipping 
points, published in Nature the following year, have galvanized the 
climate movement. But this self-published paper, “Deep Adaptation: A Map 
for Navigating the Climate Tragedy,” had a different, more personal, feel.
The paper’s central thought is that we must accept that nothing can 
reverse humanity’s fate and we must adapt accordingly. And the paper’s 
bleak, vivid details — emphasizing that the end is truly nigh, and that 
it will be gruesome — clearly resonated.

“When I say starvation, destruction, migration, disease and war, I mean 
in your own life,” wrote the author, Jem Bendell. “With the power down, 
soon you wouldn’t have water coming out of your tap. You will depend on 
your neighbors for food and some warmth. You will become malnourished. 
You won’t know whether to stay or go. You will fear being violently 
killed before starving to death.”

Since publication, much of the way the science is summarized in the 
paper has been debunked by climatologists. But even if the math doesn’t 
add up, does that make the dark conclusion any less meaningful?

The most active Deep Adaptation forum is on Facebook, though believers 
can gather on other platforms, including LinkedIn. The forums were 
established by Mr. Bendell, 48.

“I had about 800 unsolicited emails in my inbox,” Mr. Bendell said, 
recalling the time shortly after publication. “I decided I’d launch a 
forum so all these 800 people could talk to each other.”

The forums were established for people who felt wide-awake after reading 
the paper. Psychologists who wanted to change their practices to help 
those who had been uprooted by climate change; retired bankers in New 
York who wanted to introduce Mr. Bendell to their networks; single 
mothers who couldn’t stop crying when they looked at their young children.

Despair was an immediate pitfall. Because the groups attracted people 
who believed that human extinction was imminent, many talked about 
suicide. (Forum rules on Facebook bar the “discussion of suicide 
methods”; other rules bar discussion of climate news, asking 
participants to focus instead on how to adapt.)

“It did have an uncomfortable cult kind of feel about it,” said Ms. 
Green, now the executive director of Scientists Warning. She left the 
forum because she didn’t feel qualified to counsel someone considering 
suicide...
But despair wasn’t all that bound Deep Adaptation’s more dedicated 
adherents. David Baum, a 60-year-old Seattle mystic, “latched on to the 
spiritual implications.”

“Jem has the most massive intellectual bandwidth I have ever 
encountered,” he said. “He is one of the best writers alive today. And 
he has coped magnificently with unexpected celebrity based on a very 
difficult role that he is being asked to play.”

Mr. Bendell, who is a professor of sustainability leadership at the 
University of Cumbria in England, said: “My own conclusion that it is 
too late to prevent a breakdown in modern civilization in most countries 
within our lifetimes is not purely based on an assessment of climate 
science.”

“It’s based on my view of society, politics, economics from having 
worked on probably 25 countries across five continents, worked in the 
intergovernmental sector of the U.N., been part of the World Economic 
Forum, working in senior management in environmental groups, being on 
boards of investment funds,” he said. “You know, I’ve been a 
jack-of-all-trades.”

Others took comfort in the certainty of Mr. Bendell’s assessment. There 
was little of the unknown associated with usual scientific forecasting. 
Even those who thoroughly disagree understand that appeal.

“It’s really difficult to look at those probability distributions and 
know what to do,” said Kate Marvel, a climate scientist at Columbia 
University and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York. 
“I personally just want to be told, ‘This is what will happen. This is 
what you should do right now.’”...
Mr. Bendell said that full apprehension of the extent of the climate 
crisis is naturally deeply shocking. That, he said, was why the forums 
needed to exist, as well as why he created the retreats he began hosting 
in 2019.

For the first retreat, a “safely held and gently facilitated space” to 
be held on Mount Pelion in Greece, Mr. Bendell emphasized that the focus 
would be on the inner lives of the participants.

“The focus is on inner adaptation rather than policies for reducing the 
harm from societal collapse,” he wrote.

The retreat cost 520 euros to 820 euros, depending on the participant’s 
choice of lodging. Mr. Bendell said he didn’t take any money from it 
personally because “I don’t need it. And it will complicate my tax affairs.”

Shu Liang, 42, the head of a Dutch climate action organization called 
Day of Adaptation, attended. She had a marvelous time, bonding closely 
with other attendees, with whom she has kept in touch.

“It was quite a rejuvenating experience” she said.

Ms. Liang described the morning exercises. In one, she said, a 
mini-shrine was set up in the middle of the room, adorned with objects 
including a rock and a piece of driftwood. Participants were asked to 
hold the objects and talk about what they represented. For Ms. Liang, 
the rock represented the burden of having to work on climate change.

In another exercise, participants were given a set of archetypes — 
including the warrior, the leader and the caregiver — and asked to 
choose one that they’d like to embody in a time of crisis.

A third exercise, designed in part by Mr. Bendell, was called “Death to 
the Experts.” Participants wrote down words that they associated with 
experts and threw the papers into a fire.

Mr. Bendell said that this exercise was intended to diminish the cultish 
aspects of his own authority. “We realized that people who are coming 
all the way to a retreat from around the world that I’m hosting are 
coming because of the fact that I’m doing it,” he said. “And yet we 
wanted to emphasize that I’m not the person who can tell you how to make 
sense of this.”

Earlier this year, Emily Atkin, an environmental journalist who had not 
even heard of Deep Adaptation — let alone read it — wrote about a 
repeating cycle she’d observed.

“The phenomenon is some dude who is really smart in some other way, and 
has expertise in something else, perhaps stumbles upon climate change, 
takes about one month to a year to think about it — and then decides 
that all of a sudden they have the solution that nobody else has thought 
about,” she said, asked to explain the pattern in an interview. “And 
they don’t consult with a diverse array of experts before releasing it. 
They do reporting that confirms their own biases.

“And then they put out a product that uses very strong language, 
stronger language than the evidence that they have justifies, to paint a 
picture that the reason we haven’t solved this is because everyone has 
been wrong. No one has thought of their great idea yet. And the idea is, 
honestly, usually that we’re screwed.”

One criticism that emerged of Deep Adaptation more specifically was that 
this vague forthcoming disaster that Mr. Bendell was describing was 
already happening to many people — just not yet to the Western 
academics, bankers and journalists whose interests he had piqued.

Justine Huxley, the chief executive of St. Ethelburga’s Center for 
Reconciliation and Peace in London, said that the paper had strongly 
influenced the center’s work, but that some reality needed to be taken 
into account.

“The first thing that we did was really try and weave climate justice in 
how we teach it,” she said. “Because I think there was a real danger in 
the early days of the Deep Adaptation movement starting up was that it 
kind of looks like a bunch of privileged white people coming to terms 
with a reality that half of the global south is already living in the 
middle of.”

Another criticism that emerged was that the central fatalism of Deep 
Adaptation was based on misunderstood science. According to these 
critics, if you strip away the misconceptions, there’s room for the hope 
that Mr. Bendell has cast aside.

After his self-publication, the paper attracted criticism by climate 
scientists. (The paper was submitted to and rejected by a peer-reviewed 
sustainability journal. Mr. Bendell has framed the rejection almost as 
an advertisement of his paper’s provocation and import. He compared it 
to submitting a paper that says dental health is pointless to a journal 
of dentistry.)

Gavin Schmidt, a colleague of Dr. Marvel’s at the NASA Goddard 
Institute, corresponded with Mr. Bendell directly about his concerns. 
Mr. Bendell wrote a blog post about that experience in February. He 
ended with: “None of the conclusions from the climate science section of 
the paper need to be retracted.”

Dr. Marvel reviewed some of the science in the paper more recently and 
said that it was filled with errors and misconceptions. For instance, 
Mr. Bendell writes that the loss of the reflective power of ice in the 
Arctic is such that even a removal of a quarter of the cumulative carbon 
dioxide emissions of the last three decades would be outweighed by the 
damage already done.

Dr. Marvel said that this represents a basic misunderstanding. Though 
ice melting represented a feedback loop, she said, in which an effect of 
the climate becoming warmer itself contributed to further warming, there 
was a conflation in Mr. Bendell’s thought between that feedback loop and 
a so-called tipping point.

“It’s not an example of a tipping point,” she said. “This is something 
that is well understood. You make it warm. You get rid of ice. You make 
it cold. You get ice.”

Mr. Bendell provided a list of other scientists who supported him. He 
said climatology was too big a field for Dr. Marvel or Mr. Schmidt to be 
able to assess his claims knowledgeably and recommended against 
“establishment figures in climatology” altogether.

“You shouldn’t be talking to Kate Marvel or whatever,” he said. “Just 
actually go and look at the stuff yourself.”

As it happens, someone did.
Galen Hall, the 23-year-old Brown University researcher, was studying at 
Oxford when Deep Adaptation was published. He had joined Extinction 
Rebellion, a group of British climate activists, and became friends with 
a fellow member, Tom Nicholas, a doctoral candidate in computational 
physics. The paper had a profound effect on both of them, and on their 
network. A friend of Mr. Nicholas’s dropped out of university, believing 
that his studies were futile.

Mr. Nicholas had become familiar with Deep Adaptation when he started to 
hear the paper’s worldview parroted by activists.

“I basically noticed undercurrents of things I thought were 
scientifically dodgy being repeated again and again within Extinction 
Rebellion circles,” he said. “And then when I read Deep Adaptation paper 
I was like, ‘Ah, that’s where all of this is coming from.’”

Mr. Hall and Mr. Nicholas, 26, came to believe that Deep Adaptation was 
wrong to teach people that the struggle was already lost. In the fall of 
2019, they decided to write a rebuttal.

“The fundamental battle in climate change right now is whether or not we 
can understand it as a primarily political struggle — rather than a 
scientific or natural struggle — and then win that struggle,” Mr. Hall 
said. “Deep Adaptation or fatalism in general is just one way of 
depoliticizing it because it puts everything up to inhuman forces.”

In July, with Colleen Schmidt, who is 24 and has a degree in 
environmental biology from Columbia — and who acted as their de facto 
editor — they published a paper.

“I would call it a hit piece on the paper and by implication, the 
framework and the movement,” Mr. Bendell said. “It was quite upsetting, 
and I wasn’t sure how best to respond.”

About two weeks after Mr. Hall, Mr. Nicholas and Ms. Schmidt published 
their paper, Mr. Bendell released a second version of his Deep 
Adaptation paper.

“This paper appears to have an iconic status amongst some people who 
criticize others for anticipating societal collapse,” he writes. 
“Therefore, two years on from initial publication, I am releasing this 
update.”

The stark statement that had opened the original paper was altered. 
Once, it had said its purpose was to provide readers “with an 
opportunity to reassess their work and life in the face of an inevitable 
near term social collapse due to climate change.” Now, to emphasize that 
the idea remains unproven, it reads “in the face of what I believe to be 
an inevitable near-term societal collapse.” Mr. Bendell added a sentence 
stating plainly that the paper does not prove that inevitability.

As the summer of 2020 ended, he announced on his blog that he would be 
stepping back from the Deep Adaptation forum, a decision he said he’d 
been planning for a year.

In this quiet, he is working on a new paper. In it, he said, he plans to 
explain exactly how the coming catastrophe of our society will play 
itself out, describing the starvation and mass death that so many 
anticipate.

The three young people who wrote the paper rebutting Deep Adaptation 
agree that the climate crisis has already resulted in horrific loss and 
that it will continue to exact a heavy toll. But they also believe that 
governments around the world can still make a difference and should be 
held to account, instead of being lulled into inaction by despair.

“We’ve lost some things,” Ms. Schmidt said. “We could lose everything. 
But there is no reason not to try and make what can work, work.”

“Even if you somehow knew that the chance of success was small,” Mr. 
Nicholas said, “you would still be morally obligated to try your best to 
limit the damages and to keep working.”

Jonah Engel Bromwich is a news and features reporter. He writes about 
cultural change — shifts in the way we date, eat, think and use language 
and technology — for the Style section. @jonesieman
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/26/style/climate-change-deep-adaptation.html



[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - December 28, 2010 *

December 28, 2010:

On MSNBC's "Countdown," fill-in host Sam Seder and conservation 
biologist Dr. Reese Halter debunk the most recent effort by the Fox News 
Channel to promote the idea that snowstorms disprove human-caused 
climate change.

http://youtu.be/QexVjGayOew

David Jenkins, a former aide to Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM), ridicules the 
ultra-conservatives who insist that snowstorms disprove climate change:

"These skeptics, who are quiet as a mouse when summer temps soar into 
triple digits, brandish every winter weather event as irrefutable proof 
that climate change is a hoax. Fox News and right-wing talk radio will 
do their part to amplify the message, and invariably a few other media 
outlets will report on this spin and make it seem like there is a 
legitimate controversy."

http://web.archive.org/web/20101231192346/http://frumforum.com/climate-change-deniers-pull-off-a-snow-job/ 






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