[TheClimate.Vote] July 25, 2020 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

Sat Jul 25 10:28:32 EDT 2020

/*July 25, 2020*/

[Zoom today- book discussion with climate psychologists]
*Climate Author Series: Lise Van Susteren on Emotional Inflammation*
Saturday, July 25th at 1:00 PM EST, Merritt Juliano will interview Lise 
Van Susteren about her new book, Emotional Inflammation.
Climate Author Series
CPA-NA will be hosting a series of Zoom interviews to highlight and 
introduce authors in the field of climate psychology.  We will kick off 
this initiative with a discussion between CPA-NA co-president, Merritt 
Juliano JD LCSW and Lise Van Susteren, author of Emotional Inflammation: 
Discover Your Triggers and Reclaim Your Equilibrium During Anxious 
Times.  Dr. Susteren also serves as CPA-NA board member, and is a 
founding board member of Climate Psychiatry Alliance.  Dr. Susteren is a 
practicing psychiatrist in Washington, DC.  She served as assistant 
clinical professor of psychiatry at Georgetown University, and is a 
go-to commentator for CNN NBC, NPR, the Wall Street Journal, HuffPost 
and other media outlets.  Don't miss this unique opportunity to hear Dr. 
Susteren discuss her new book.  Participants will have an opportunity to 
submit questions for Dr. Susteren for a closing Q & A session.

When: Saturday, July 25th, 1:00 - 2:00 PM EST
Members: Free
Non-members: $15
Click to register - 
https://climatepsychology.us/event-tickets/climate-author-series-lise-van-susteren-on-emotional-inflammation 

[how hot will it get?]
*A New Solution to Climate Science's Biggest Mystery*
For the first time in 41 years, researchers have provided a new answer 
to one of the thorniest--and most fundamental--questions in Earth science...
- -
They wanted a better answer to the question, which is: If you greatly 
increase the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, how hot will 
the planet get?...
This week, a team of 25 researchers--drawn from across the earth 
sciences and descended from the Bavaria effort--published the first new 
answer in 41 years. Their estimate of this value, called "climate 
sensitivity," significantly reduces the amount of uncertainty involved 
in forecasting climate change. "It helps us answer this fundamental 
question, which is: How warm is it gonna get?" Kate Marvel, a climate 
scientist at NASA and an author of the paper, told me.

Since Arrhenius first tried to calculate climate sensitivity, scientists 
have talked about it by estimating how much temperatures would rise if 
CO₂ doubled. The new paper finds that doubling carbon dioxide will 
likely increase Earth's average temperature by 2.6 to 3.9 degrees 
Celsius (about 5 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit). That's much narrower than the 
old estimate, which said that a doubling of CO₂ would raise temperatures 
by 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius (about 3 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit)...
- -
"We've ruled out 'We'll be fine,' and we don't think 'doom' is very 
likely," Marvel said...
- -
The new work may represent the end of the era for this vein of climate 
science, Stevens said. At this point, policy makers have all the 
information about climate sensitivity they should need to act, he said. 
While it's not always clear what a change in the global mean temperature 
means for local climates, it is clear now that--with virtually no 
uncertainty--any doubling of atmospheric CO₂ would be a significant 
event. "I think science has done a good job of putting its foot forward 
on the global mean," Stevens said. "This could be the end."
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/07/a-new-solution-to-climate-sciences-biggest-mystery-sensitivity/614581/
- - - -
[What will happen with 5 degrees of warming - 2 min video drama]
*5 Degrees Warmer: Civilization Collapses | National Geographic*
If the world warms by five degrees the planet reaches a nightmare vision 
of life on Earth as traditional social systems break down.
http://youtu.be/7nRf2RTqANg

[Some educational videos]
*What Will Happen If Earth Keeps Getting Warmer? | Avoiding Apocalypse | 
Spark*
Jul 6, 2020
Spark
The Earth is heating up and this climate change will have cataclysmic 
consequences for humanity - namely the desertification of agricultural 
lands and submersion of some of the planet's most populated zones. This 
episode explores the best scientific solutions to rescue the climate and 
humanity, including carbon capture, artificial trees, production of 
Earth-cooling clouds, and many more.
Subscribe to Spark for more amazing science, tech and engineering videos 
- https://goo.gl/LIrlur
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3Q5OEfD9u8

[video discussion]
*Sustainable Food Workshop: What it means and how to cook it*
Streamed live July 22, 2020
Oxford Climate Society
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLaSplhYBwA

[Capital Weather Gang]
*Major new climate study rules out less severe global warming scenarios*
An analysis finds the most likely range of warming from doubling carbon 
dioxide to be between 4.1 to 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit
By Andrew Freedman and Chris Mooney - July 22 at 10:28 AM
The current pace of human-caused carbon emissions is increasingly likely 
to trigger irreversible damage to the planet, according to a 
comprehensive international study released Wednesday. Researchers 
studying one of the most important and vexing topics in climate science 
-- how sensitive the Earth's climate is to a doubling of the amount of 
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere -- found that warming is extremely 
unlikely to be on the low end of estimates.

These scientists now say it is likely that if human activities -- such 
as burning oil, gas and coal along with deforestation -- push carbon 
dioxide to such levels, the Earth's global average temperature will most 
likely increase between 4.1 and 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit (2.3 and 4.5 
degrees Celsius). The previous and long-standing estimated range of 
climate sensitivity, as first laid out in a 1979 report, was 2.7 to 8.1 
degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 to 4.5 Celsius).
If the warming reaches the midpoint of this new range, it would be 
extremely damaging, said Kate Marvel, a physicist at NASA's Goddard 
Institute of Space Studies and Columbia University, who called it the 
equivalent of a "five-alarm fire" for the planet.
The new range is narrower than previous studies but shows at least a 95 
percent chance that a doubling of carbon dioxide, which the world is on 
course to reach within the next five decades or so, would result in 
warming greater than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) relative 
to preindustrial temperatures. That is the threshold beyond which 
scientists say the Earth will suffer dangerous effects -- disruptive sea 
level rise, intolerable heat waves and other extreme weather and 
permanent damage to ecosystems...
- -
Staying below that is still possible. If steep emissions cuts are made 
in the near-term, a doubling of carbon dioxide levels could be avoided. 
But if a doubling does occur, there would be a 6 to 18 percent chance of 
exceeding the upper bound defined by the study of 8.1 Fahrenheit (4.5 
Celsius).

The study by 25 researchers from around the world, published in the 
journal Reviews of Geophysics, is the result of a four-year effort 
sponsored by the World Climate Research Program. It includes a narrower 
projected sensitivity range of 4.7 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit (2.6 to 3.9 
Celsius) that has a 66 percent chance of occurring.

*The 'holy grail' of climate science*
For decades, climate scientists have been seeking to answer the question 
of how much global temperatures would climb if the amount of carbon 
dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere were to double. This measure was 
estimated in a 1979 study from the National Research Council led by 
Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Jule Charney.

The "Charney Report" concluded that the planet's climate sensitivity was 
most likely within the range of 2.6 to 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 to 
4.5 Celsius).

Ever since, researchers have tried to narrow that range, contending with 
myriad uncertainties in how the oceans and atmosphere respond to 
historical changes in solar output, the planet's orbit, past periods 
with higher amounts of carbon dioxide in the air as well as feedback, 
such as how various cloud types act to trap or reflect heat energy. In 
addition, scientists have wrestled with uncertainties in models that 
simulate past, present and future climate change.

"Constraining climate sensitivity has been something of a holy grail in 
climate science for some time," said study co-author Zeke Hausfather, 
director of climate and energy at the Breakthrough Institute.

The climate sensitivity question has taken on new urgency as some of the 
newest computer models developed for the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on 
Climate Change (IPCC), due in a report next year, show a higher climate 
sensitivity than earlier models.

The new result narrows the range from what Charney and his colleagues 
calculated while raising the lower bound...
- -
*Knowing the climate sensitivity range could enable better decision-making*
The term "climate sensitivity" might seem like an academic construct, a 
metric that matters more in the grand theories and computer models of 
scientists than it does in our everyday lives.

In fact, the study has a message that matters to us a great deal: There 
is basically little or no chance that we are going to get lucky and find 
that the warming caused by our activities turns out to be minor.

There are at least two main lines of evidence that lead to the 
conclusion, based on the study. The first is simply the warming that has 
already occurred since the industrial revolution.

Currently, with atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide at 415 
parts per million (compared with a preindustrial level of 280 parts per 
million), the world is about halfway toward doubling atmospheric carbon 
dioxide (560 parts per million). And already, the Earth has warmed by at 
least 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial 
temperatures.

The new research finds that, in light of this, there is strong evidence 
refuting the notion that a doubling of carbon dioxide would only cause 
about 2.6 degrees (1.5 Celsius) of warming.

At the same time, researchers rejected the idea that there is any factor 
in the climate system that will counteract the warming trend in a 
meaningful way.

In the past, climate change contrarians and doubters have said that 
clouds might be such a factor. For instance, if as the planet warms the 
overall size, composition or surface area of clouds increases, they 
could reflect more sunlight from Earth, which would cool the planet 
some. But the study finds that isn't likely to happen.

"We find that a negative total cloud feedback is very unlikely," the 
authors write, concluding that for this reason the climate sensitivity 
cannot be very low.

"The uncertainty is really asymmetric here," Marvel said in an 
interview. "We can be very confident in ruling out sensitivities on the 
low end. So basically what we're saying here is that there is really no 
evidence for any sort of natural response, any sort of big, stabilizing 
feedback, that in the absence of human actions, is going to save us from 
climate change."

But Gavin Schmidt, the study's co-author and Marvel's colleague at NASA 
Goddard, offered some optimism, noting that collective action by nations 
could prevent the doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

"The primary determinant of future climate is human actions," Marvel said.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/07/22/climate-sensitivity-co2/

[Dose of positivism]
*What Could Possibly Go Right? | Episode 14 with Rob Hopkins*
Jul 23, 2020
postcarboninstitute
Rob Hopkins is an author and a cofounder of Transition Town Totnes and 
Transition Network. He approaches the question of "What could possibly 
go right?" with a fascination in the power of imagination for our 
future. His insights include:

That we need to create the conditions for the human imagination to 
re-emerge.

That trauma, anxiety, loneliness and systemic problems have caused our 
imaginations to shrink, which can put at risk our ability to reimagine 
everything needed in these times.

That to some extent, COVID has provided us some space for us to think in 
a different way and pause to "take a collective breath".

That we may each emerge from lockdown as different people than we went 
in, in a profound and extraordinary way.

That we need to be wary of governments without imagination, which are 
only thinking of how to get back to the way things were.

That this has been a phenomenal global act of love and solidarity in 
history.

That any solutions will start with us, working together in communities 
with a sense of solidarity and mutual aid.

That community movements need proper support and resources, with 
governments recognizing that allocating money effectively towards these 
has spin off benefits for public health, mental health and social 
cohesion strategies.
Learn more: https://bit.ly/pci-wcpgrseries
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTB53G6Bz5w

[Sarcasm photo - TheOnion]
*In-Flight Announcement Thanks Passengers For Choosing To Destroy Planet 
With Southwest*
https://www.theonion.com/in-flight-announcement-thanks-passengers-for-choosing-t-1844491537?utm_source=TheOnion_Daily_RSS&utm_medium=email

[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - July 25, 1977 *
The New York Times runs a front-page story entitled: "Scientists Fear 
Heavy Use of Coal May Bring Adverse Shift in Climate."
http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=FB0F11F8395E137B93C7AB178CD85F438785F9

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