[TheClimate.Vote] May 5, 2020 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Tue May 5 09:26:15 EDT 2020
/*May 5, 2020*/
[migration futures]
*Billions Could Live in Extreme Heat Zones Within Decades, Study Finds*
By Henry Fountain
May 4, 2020
As the climate continues to warm over the next half-century, up to
one-third of the world's population is likely to live in areas that are
considered unsuitably hot for humans, scientists said Monday.
- -
The researchers examined the "climate niche" for humans, or temperature
ranges at which most of the world's population has lived over time. They
wondered if human settlement would be restricted to areas within a
certain temperature range, just as other creatures occupy habitats with
suitable temperatures...
- -
While it is true that some people live in more extreme conditions, the
researchers found that the majority of the world's population lives in
areas within a narrow temperature range, with mean annual temperatures
of about 50 to 60 degrees Fahrenheit (or 11 to 15 degrees Celsius). A
smaller number of people live in areas with a range of 68 to 77 degrees
Fahrenheit (20 to 25 Celsius).
- -
"It's a kind of no-go area to talk about climate migration," Dr.
Scheffer said. But the possibility that hundreds of millions of people
may be forced to move to cooler areas means that society "needs to think
about how we can accommodate as much as we can."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/climate/heat-temperatures-climate-change.html
- - - -
[Source material]
*Future of the human climate niche*
Chi Xu, Timothy A. Kohler, Timothy M. Lenton, Jens-Christian Svenning,
and Marten Scheffer
PNAS first published May 4, 2020 - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910114117
*Significance*
We show that for thousands of years, humans have concentrated in a
surprisingly narrow subset of Earth's available climates, characterized
by mean annual temperatures around ∼13C. This distribution likely
reflects a human temperature niche related to fundamental constraints.
We demonstrate that depending on scenarios of population growth and
warming, over the coming 50 y, 1 to 3 billion people are projected to be
left outside the climate conditions that have served humanity well over
the past 6,000 y. Absent climate mitigation or migration, a substantial
part of humanity will be exposed to mean annual temperatures warmer than
nearly anywhere today.
*Abstract*
All species have an environmental niche, and despite technological
advances, humans are unlikely to be an exception. Here, we
demonstrate that for millennia, human populations have resided in
the same narrow part of the climatic envelope available on the
globe, characterized by a major mode around ∼11C to 15C mean annual
temperature (MAT). Supporting the fundamental nature of this
temperature niche, current production of crops and livestock is
largely limited to the same conditions, and the same optimum has
been found for agricultural and nonagricultural economic output of
countries through analyses of year-to-year variation. We show that
in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical
position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over
the coming 50 y than it has moved since 6000 BP. Populations will
not simply track the shifting climate, as adaptation in situ may
address some of the challenges, and many other factors affect
decisions to migrate. Nevertheless, in the absence of migration, one
third of the global population is projected to experience a MAT >29C
currently found in only 0.8% of the Earth's land surface, mostly
concentrated in the Sahara. As the potentially most affected regions
are among the poorest in the world, where adaptive capacity is low,
enhancing human development in those areas should be a priority
alongside climate mitigation.
more at - https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/28/1910114117
[As seen from space]
*Sea sparkle: Melting snow caps in the Himalayas are causing the spread
of toxic glowing green algae blooms so big they can be seen from SPACE,
study finds*
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/05/04/14/27985022-8284445-image-a-1_1588600774938.jpg
- NASA imagery shows prevalence of harmful Noctiluca scintillans blooms
in Asia -
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/05/04/12/27980426-8284445-Noctiluca_blooms_in_the_Arabian_Sea_as_seen_from_space_affecting-a-12_1588591335075.jpg
-The toxic algae forces out plankton that support the Arabian Sea's food
chain
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/05/04/12/27980410-8284445-Noctiluca_scintillans_a_millimetre_size_organism_that_can_both_p-a-13_1588591368027.jpg
- This depletes fish stocks in the region which affects economies
including India
The effect is triggered by warmer winds blowing offshore from melting
ice caps
- - -
The sheer size of Noctiluca blooms, which first appeared in the late
1990s, threaten the Arabian Sea's already vulnerable food chain.
'It also harms water quality and causes a lot of fish mortality,' Goes said.
Using lab experiments, field data and decades of NASA satellite imagery,
the researchers were able to link the rise of Noctiluca in the Arabian
Sea with melting glaciers and a weakened winter monsoon.
Normally, cold winter monsoon winds blowing from the Himalayas cool the
surface of the oceans.
Once cooled, these waters sink and are replaced with nutrient-rich
waters from below, which support phytoplankton – the primary producers
of the food chain.
- -
Loss of fishery resources has the potential to further exacerbate
socio-economic turmoil for countries in the region that are already
gripped by war and poverty.
The study provides new evidence of the 'cascading impacts' of global
warming on the Indian monsoons, they conclude.
'Most studies related to climate change and ocean biology are focused on
the polar and temperate waters, and changes in the topics are going
largely unnoticed,' said Goes.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8284445/Climate-change-lets-toxic-green-algae-thrive-Arabian-Sea.html
- - -
[Source mater in journal Nature]
*Ecosystem state change in the Arabian Sea fuelled by the recent loss of
snow over the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau region*
Abstract
The recent trend of global warming has exerted a disproportionately
strong influence on the Eurasian land surface, causing a steady decline
in snow cover extent over the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau region. Here we
show that this loss of snow is undermining winter convective mixing and
causing stratification of the upper layer of the Arabian Sea at a much
faster rate than predicted by global climate models. Over the past four
decades, the Arabian Sea has also experienced a profound loss of
inorganic nitrate. In all probability, this is due to increased
denitrification caused by the expansion of the permanent oxygen minimum
zone and consequent changes in nutrient stoichiometries. These
exceptional changes appear to be creating a niche particularly favorable
to the mixotroph, Noctiluca scintillans which has recently replaced
diatoms as the dominant winter, bloom forming organism. Although
Noctiluca blooms are non-toxic, they can cause fish mortality by
exacerbating oxygen deficiency and ammonification of seawater. As a
consequence, their continued range expansion represents a significant
and growing threat for regional fisheries and the welfare of coastal
populations dependent on the Arabian Sea for sustenance.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-64360-2
[stress test]*
* *Coronavirus and Climate Change Could Stretch FEMA Past Its Limit*
Staffing shortfalls at the U.S. disaster-response agency could impair
its ability to tackle a pandemic on top of extreme weather events.
- -
Problems at the agency have been mounting for years in the face of
record-breaking storms, wildfires and floods that have revealed widening
gaps in its abilities. A series of reports from the federal government's
General Accounting Office has shown the agency to be consistently
understaffed. FEMA's own after-action report in the wake of the 2017
hurricane season found that it had missed an internal target for what
the agency calls "force strength," the number of staff trained and
ready for deployment. The goal was to have around 12,400 personnel
ready, and FEMA's ranks at the time had fallen short by more than 1,700
people.
FEMA officials reject the idea that the agency isn't ready. In an
interview, a FEMA spokesperson said the agency's "incident management
workforce" had grown by more than 25% since Hurricane Harvey in 2017.
"Additionally, FEMA hired more than 1,500 temporary local hires to
support response and recovery missions in their communities," said the
spokesperson, who asked to be unnamed as a matter of departmental policy.
By its own count, however, FEMA remains below its 2017 target for force
strength. There are now around 11,000 personnel at the ready, FEMA said,
about 1,400 short. Right now, the spokesperson said, only 35% of its
employees are currently available to deploy, although more could be
freed up as necessary...
- - -
The response to the pandemic will be an extraordinary test for a
disaster-response agency with fewer resources. "It's a very unique
situation when you have to help people but not get within six feet of
them," said Tim Frazier, director of Georgetown University's emergency
and disaster management program. "Stretching the resources has more to
do with people power. FEMA doesn't have an unlimited supply of human
capital."
Even before the novel coronavirus reached the U.S., this year was
already shaping up to be exceptionally challenging for FEMA. Relentless
rains across the Southeast in February caused near-record flooding from
Jackson, Mississippi to Birmingham, Alabama. In early March, roughly 10
tornadoes touched down in Tennessee, leaving at least 25 dead.
Scientists have tied extreme weather such as unusually heavy
precipitation to warming temperatures, and early floods and tornadoes
are just the start of the looming risks. Flood season is around the
corner, and tornadoes usually peak in April. Atlantic hurricane season
begins June 1.
"We have a saying that hope is never a good strategy," Frazier said.
"But at the same time, we have to hope we don't get a hurricane, we
don't get a tsunami somewhere. Let's hope we don't have the flooding in
the Midwest."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-21/coronavirus-and-climate-change-could-stretch-fema-past-its-limit
[A short-sighted view]
*Inside Rev. Jesse Jackson's push for a natural gas pipeline*
by Amy Harder - May 4, 2020
Breaking from other progressives, Rev. Jesse Jackson is calling to build
a natural gas pipeline to serve an impoverished community near Chicago.
Why it matters: This is one example of the complex tug of war between
energy affordability and tackling climate change. The tension is poised
to grow as America and much of the world careen into pandemic-fueled
recessions.
Driving the news: The move puts Jackson at odds with some Democrats and
environmentalists who oppose fossil fuels because they drive climate
change. The famous civil rights activist says the largely black
community is being unfairly cut off from affordable energy.
The intrigue: For several months Jackson has been working with local,
state and federal officials in Illinois to get an $8.2 million, 30-mile
natural gas pipeline built for a community in a rural part of Illinois
65 miles south of Chicago.
Jackson, who has protested with environmentalists to oppose the Dakota
Access oil pipeline, told me in a February interview: "I really do
support the environmental movement."
However, he said, the people of this community -- called Pembroke --
have no gas at all and are paying exorbitantly high prices to heat their
homes with propane.
"When we move to another form of energy, that's fine by me, I support
that," Jackson said. "But in the meantime, you cannot put the black
farmers on hold until that day comes."
Where it stands: The area has about 400 homes, no manufacturing and only
a few commercial establishments, said Mark Hodge, mayor of Hopkins Park,
a town in the region.
The community is 80% black and has an average annual income of less than
$15,000, Hodge said. That's compared to more than $60,000 nationally.
The region, due at least partly to its rural setting, has never had
access to natural gas. The topic is reaching the forefront now because
Jackson has been focusing on it since last fall, largely at Hodge's
request, the mayor said.
What they're saying:
Cathy Vanderdyz, a city clerk in the area, said she pays roughly between
$500 and $800 to heat her home with propane over the course of a month
or two.
Hodge says businesses won't come to the area because heating costs are
too high. As for climate change: "It's not on my radar at this point,
not to say in the future it would not be. My main concern is cutting our
energy costs out here."
Hodge said he considered a 137-acre solar farm. He said he was told it
would cost $25 million to run an electric line to connect it: "So of
course we did not move forward with that."
While natural gas is cheaper per unit of energy compared to other forms,
the upfront cost is typically a deal-breaker in rural areas not already
connected to a pipeline network -- regardless of the income level and
race of people living there, said Warren Wilczewski, an expert at the
U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Because energy prices are roughly the same for everyone, people with
lower incomes pay a larger share of their income on energy.
This is especially so in black and Hispanic communities, where poverty
rates are higher.
By the numbers: Under current regulations, customers seeking natural gas
access often have to pay for at least part of the cost of getting that
service.
In this case, the roughly 400 Pembroke households would have to pay
$3.25 million of the total estimated $8.2 million pipeline, according to
Nicor Gas, the company that would build the project.
That means each household would, on average, have to pay an upfront cost
of $8,125 to be connected to natural gas.
"This is why propane is viable," Wilczewski said.
What we're watching: A bill pending in the state legislature would
designate Pembroke as a "designated hardship area," which would allow a
company (in this case Nicor Gas) to pay for the entire cost of the
pipeline, not just part of it.
Nicor would increase natural gas rates throughout its service area to
cover costs. With 2.2 million customers in the region, that'd equal
about a penny a month, a Nicor Gas spokeswoman says...
The other side: Environmentalists aren't fighting this pipeline project,
but Tamara Toles O'Laughlin, North America director for 350.org, one of
the most influential climate activist organizations in the world, said
it fits within the group's mandate to end fossil fuels.
"If there's one thing this pandemic is teaching us, it's that we need to
think about recovery in the long-term and that also means thinking about
sustainable energy needs in the long-term," she said, adding she is open
to talking with Jackson and others pushing the project.
Go deeper:
https://www.axios.com/jackson-natural-gas-3e1af88d-a823-4096-975d-c9b0ad207806.html
--
[Forbes sees a way]
*In A Post-Pandemic World, Renewable Energy Is The Only Way Forward*
The Economist's regular cartoonist, KAL, summed it up neatly in his
cartoon last week: the battle humanity is waging against the coronavirus
is only the preliminary round, and after that, we have a much bigger and
stronger opponent waiting for us, called the climate emergency. That
some people still may think that something as objectively and
scientifically proven is still up for debate could be seen as one of the
greatest achievements of the fossil fuel industry. It's not. It's the
greatest threat to human life.
- - -
A post-pandemic economic reconstruction based on restructuring the
energy map makes sense. We know we have to do it, and we know the reason
we haven't done it so far is because it challenges the interests of a
powerful few. The time has come to abandon outdated concepts, to change
our mindset, and to put the use of renewables at the top of our list of
priorities.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/enriquedans/2020/05/03/in-a-post-pandemic-world-renewable-energy-is-the-only-wayforward/#28f257c717b6
[What could be worse]
*'Murder Hornets' Spotted in U.S. for the First Time*
Olivia RosaneMay. 04, 2020
Invasive "murder hornets" have been spotted in the U.S. for the first
time, prompting concerns for the nation's honeybees and the trajectory
of a year that has already brought locust invasions and a global pandemic.
Four sightings of the world's largest hornets -- officially called the
Asian giant hornet (Vespa mandarinia) -- were reported and verified in
Washington State in December 2019, according to the Washington State
Department of Agriculture (WSDA). But "murder hornet" began trending
after the publication Saturday of a New York Times piece about
Washington's efforts to find and eradicate the insects before they take
hold, as NBC News reported.
"Murder hornets. Sure thing, 2020," actor and comedian Patton Oswalt
tweeted. "Give us everything. Hypno-frogs. Fecal blizzards. Toilet
tsunamis. A CATS sequel. We can take it."
[more terror at:]
https://www.ecowatch.com/murder-hornets-honeybees-us-2645912097.html?rebelltitem=7#rebelltitem7
[Superb debunking of Michael Moore video - 30 mins]
*Planet of the Humans : Let's just have a think...*
May 5, 2020
Just Have a Think
On the 50th Anniversary of the first ever Earth Day, Jeff Gibbs and
Michael Moore released a documentary film free on You Tube. The film is
called Planet of the Humans, and it proved quite popular. This week we
review the movie and consider its implications for climate activism.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmNjLHRAP2U
[Read The Washington Post stories that won the 2020 Pulitzer Prize]
*2*(degrees)*C: Beyond the Limit was awarded the Pulitzer for
explanatory reporting;*
Winner: 2020 Pulitzer Prize for Explanatory Reporting
The Staff of The Washington Post
For a groundbreaking series that showed with scientific clarity the dire
effects of extreme temperatures on the planet.
For its "2C: Beyond the Limit" series, The Washington Post analyzed
global datasets tracking nearly 170 years of temperature records to map
every place that has already warmed by 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees
Fahrenheit) -- the threshold international negotiators hope the planet
as a whole will never reach. This massive, pioneering use of temperature
data demonstrated that extreme climate change is already a life-altering
reality across 10 percent of the Earth's surface. Writers and
photographers were dispatched to produce deeply reported missives from a
warmer, more erratic future.
The series simultaneously relied on and demystified the science of
climate change -- for instance, allowing readers to interact with a
spinning globe that highlighted the areas of greatest warming. The work
was scientifically advanced, but the results were simple to understand.
The effort was prompted by a pair of alarming studies that found that
insects and birds were disappearing in Puerto Rico and the Mojave
Desert. The Post noticed a key detail: These locations were heating up
much faster than the global average. Working with data from Berkeley
Earth, a nonprofit climate research group, and that of other
researchers, we mapped temperature change across a century.
The multimedia series included 12 stories that took readers to places as
varied and far-flung as the troubled waters in the Sea of Okhotsk, the
outdoor air-conditioning in some of Qatar's stadiums and markets, and a
popular New Jersey resort whose lake once supplied the ice boxes of New
York City. Now the water no longer freezes thick enough to sustain ice
fishing.
The research added to our understanding of the erosion of winter and
rapidly changing ocean currents -- many of the latter not previously
reported. And it allowed The Post to create the graphics and animations
that let readers see how severe climate change has affected their own
counties and countries.
Extreme climate change has arrived in America
Dangerous new hot zones are spreading around the world
The climate chain reaction that threatens the heart of the Pacific
On land, Australia's rising heat is 'apocalyptic.' In the ocean,
it's worse.
Facing unbearable heat, Qatar has begun to air-condition the outdoors
Radical warming in Siberia leaves millions on unstable ground
Fires, floods and free parking: California's unending fight against
climate change
'The ice used to protect them. Now their island is crumbling into
the sea.'
Facing catastrophic climate change, they still can't quit Big Oil
'How we know global warming is real'
https://www.washingtonpost.com/pr/2020/05/04/read-the-washington-post-stories-that-won-2020-pulitzer-prize/
[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - May 5, 2013 *
New York magazine's Jon Chait declares that President Obama doesn't get
enough credit for being a climate hawk:
"The assumption that Obama's climate-change record is essentially
one of failure is mainly an artifact of environmentalists'
understandably frantic urgency. The sort of steady progress that
would leave activists on other issues giddy does not satisfy the
sort of person whose waking hours are spent watching the glaciers
melt irreversibly. But there is a difference between failing to do
anything and failing to do enough, and even those who criticize the
president's efforts as inadequate ought to be clear-eyed about what
has been accomplished. By the normal standards of progress, Obama
has amassed an impressive record so far on climate change."
http://nymag.com/news/features/obama-climate-change-2013-5/
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