[TheClimate.Vote] May 17, 2020 - Daily Global Warming News Digest.

Sun May 17 08:37:29 EDT 2020

/*May 17, 2020*/

[techno-fides]
*Big data and synthetic chemistry could fight climate change and pollution*
Scientists at the University of South Carolina and Columbia University 
have developed a faster way to design and make gas-filtering membranes 
that could cut greenhouse gas emissions and reduce pollution.
Their new method, published today in Science Advances, mixes machine 
learning with synthetic chemistry to design and develop new 
gas-separation membranes more quickly. Recent experiments applying this 
approach resulted in new materials that separate gases better than any 
other known filtering membranes.

The discovery could revolutionize the way new materials are designed and 
created, Brian Benicewicz, the University of South Carolina SmartState 
chemistry professor, said.

"It removes the guesswork and the old trial-and-error work, which is 
very ineffective," Benicewicz said. "You don't have to make hundreds of 
different materials and test them. Now you're letting the machine learn. 
It can narrow your search."

Plastic films or membranes are often used to filter gases. Benicewicz 
explained that these membranes suffer from a tradeoff between 
selectivity and permeability--a material that lets one gas through is 
unlikely to stop a molecule of another gas. "We're talking about some 
really small molecules," Benicewicz said. "The size difference is almost 
imperceptible. If you want a lot of permeability, you're not going to 
get a lot of selectivity."

Benicewicz and his collaborators at Columbia University wanted to see if 
big data could design a more effective membrane.

The team at Columbia University created a machine learning algorithm 
that analyzed the chemical structure and effectiveness of existing 
membranes used for separating carbon dioxide from methane. Once the 
algorithm could accurately predict the effectiveness of a given 
membrane, they turned the question around: What chemical structure would 
make the ideal gas separation membrane..
https://phys.org/news/2020-05-big-synthetic-chemistry-climate-pollution.html

[Sea Level Rise]
*Experts Warn: Sea Level Could Rise by More Than 1 Meter by 2100 (5 
Meters by 2300)*
An international study led by Nanyang Technological University, 
Singapore (NTU Singapore) scientists found that the global mean 
sea-level rise could exceed 1 meter by 2100 and 5 meters by 2300 if 
global targets on emissions are not achieved.

The study used projections by more than 100 international experts for 
the global mean sea-level changes under two climate scenarios - low and 
high emissions. By surveying a wide range of leaders in the field, the 
study offers broader assurance about its projections for the ranges of 
future sea-level rise.

In a scenario where global warming is limited to 2 degrees Celsius above 
pre-industrial levels, the experts estimated a rise of 0.5 meters by 
2100 and 0.5 to 2 meters by 2300. In a high-emissions scenario with 4.5 
degrees Celsius of warming, the experts estimated a larger rise of 0.6 
to 1.3 meters by 2100 and 1.7 to 5.6 meters by 2300.

Professor Benjamin Horton, Acting Chair of NTU's Asian School of the 
Environment, who led the survey, said that sea-level rise projections 
and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed 
mitigation and adaptation decisions.

Prof Horton said, -The complexity of sea-level projections, and the 
sheer amount of relevant scientific publications, make it difficult for 
policymakers to get an overview of the state of the science. To obtain 
this overview, it is useful to survey leading experts on the expected 
sea-level rise, which provides a broader picture of future scenarios and 
informs policymakers so they can prepare necessary measures."

Published in Nature Partner Journals Climate and Atmospheric Science 
today (May 8, 2020), the projections of sea-level rise exceed previous 
estimates by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The NTU-led international study was a collaboration with researchers 
from The University of Hong Kong, Maynooth University (Ireland), Durham 
University (UK), Rowan University (USA), Tufts University (USA), and the 
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany).

"We know that the planet will see additional sea-level rise in the 
future," says co-author Dr. Andra Garner, Assistant Professor of 
Environmental Science at Rowan University in the United States of 
America. "But there are stark differences in the amount of sea-level 
rise experts project for low emissions compared to high emissions. This 
provides a great deal of hope for the future, as well as a strong 
motivation to act now to avoid the more severe impacts of rising sea 
levels."

"This international study is based on the informed opinions of 106 
sea-level experts and underlines the critical importance of pursuing a 
low emissions policy to limit sea-level rise," says Dr. Niamh Cahill, 
Assistant Professor in the Dept of Mathematics and Statistics at 
Maynooth University in Ireland.

The 106 experts who participated in the survey were chosen as they were 
among the most active publishers of scientific sea-level studies (at 
least six published papers in peer-reviewed journals since 2014) 
identified from a leading publication database.

In response to open-ended questions, the climate change experts 
identified the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets as the greatest 
sources of uncertainty. These ice sheets are an important indicator of 
climate change and driver of sea-level rise. Satellite-based 
measurements show the ice sheets are melting at an accelerating rate. 
However, the experts also noted that the magnitude and impact of 
sea-level rise can be limited by successfully reducing emissions.

Dr. Andrea Dutton, Professor in the Department of Geoscience at the 
University of Wisconsin-Madison, who is not involved in this study, 
says, "One of the key take-aways from this study is that our actions 
today can make a profound difference in how much our coastlines will 
retreat in the future. That knowledge is empowering because it means 
that we can choose a better outcome through our actions."

Reference: "Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties 
by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey" by Benjamin P. Horton, Nicole S. 
Khan, Niamh Cahill, Janice S. H. Lee, Timothy A. Shaw, Andra J. Garner, 
Andrew C. Kemp, Simon E. Engelhart and Stefan Rahmstorf, 8 May 2020, npj 
Climate and Atmospheric Science.
https://scitechdaily.com/experts-warn-sea-level-could-rise-by-more-than-1-meter-by-2100/

- - -

[What scientist said in 2013]
*Sea-level rise: What the experts expect*
Filed under: Climate Science IPCC Oceans -- stefan @ 23 November 2013

In the long run, sea-level rise will be one of the most serious 
consequences of global warming. But how fast will sea levels rise? Model 
simulations are still associated with considerable uncertainty - too 
complex and varied are the processes that contribute to the increase. A 
just-published survey of 90 sea-level experts from 18 countries now 
reveals what amount of sea-level rise the wider expert community 
expects. With successful, strong mitigation measures, the experts expect 
a likely rise of 40-60 cm in this century and 60-100 cm by the year 
2300. With unmitigated warming, however, the likely range is 70-120 cm 
by 2100 and two to three meters by the year 2300.

http://www.realclimate.org/images//survey_histogram1.png

"There is no split into two groups that could be termed "alarmists" and 
"skeptics" - this idea can thus be regarded as empirically falsified. 
That is consistent with other surveys, such as that of continental ice 
experts by Bamber & Aspinell (Nature Climate Change 2013). Instead, we 
see in the distribution of responses a broad scientific "mainstream" 
with a normal spread (the large hump of three bars centered on 100 cm, 
in which I also find myself), complemented with a long tail of about a 
dozen "pessimists" who are worried about a much larger sea-level rise. 
Let's hope these outliers are wrong. At least I don't see a plausible 
physical mechanism for such a rapid rise."

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/11/sea-level-rise-what-the-experts-expect/

- -

[from 2103]
*Sea Level Rise Survey Reveals Researchers' Concern About High-End 
Scenarios*
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/sea-level-rise-survey_n_4324141

[It's really about climate change -- video about the release due tomorrow]
*I read the entire Hunger Games during lockdown and here's what happened.*

    A video essay / reading vlog about Suzanne Collins' teen series, The
    Hunger Games, and what it could say about social responsibility,
    greed and climate change.

    Here's the blurb if you're interested in the new prequel to the
    Hunger Games:
    The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
    Ambition will fuel him. Competition will drive him. But power has
    its price.
    It is the morning of the reaping that will kick off the tenth annual
    Hunger Games. In the Capitol, eighteen-year-old Coriolanus Snow is
    preparing for his one shot at glory as a mentor in the Games. The
    once-mighty house of Snow has fallen on hard times, its fate hanging
    on the slender chance that Coriolanus will be able to outcharm,
    outwit, and outmaneuver his fellow students to mentor the winning
    tribute.

    The odds are against him. He's been given the humiliating assignment
    of mentoring the female tribute from District 12, the lowest of the
    low. Their fates are now completely intertwined -- every choice
    Coriolanus makes could lead to favour or failure, triumph or ruin.
    Inside the arena, it will be a fight to the death. Outside the
    arena, Coriolanus starts to feel for his doomed tribute... and must
    weigh his need to follow the rules against his desire to survive no
    matter what it takes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8y-DflB3tY

- - -

[video about Extinction Rebellion book ]
*I read the Extinction Rebellion book so you don't have to!*
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJA28yp5BTE

- -

[More video from Leena Norms]*
**I was wrong about climate change: here's why*
https://youtu.be/GT7TTlNCGMI

[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - May 17, 2013 *
Andrew Sullivan points to the root cause of US climate-change denial:

    *The Climate Change "Debate" Is Over*
    A recent study reviewed the published literature and talked to
    climate scientists about whether human activities are driving
    climate change. Their results indicate a general consensus in the
    scientific community:

    An international team of scientists analyzed the abstracts of 11,944
    peer-reviewed papers published between 1991 and 2011 dealing with
    climate change and global warming. That's right -- we're talking
    about 20 years of papers, many published long before Superstorm
    Sandy, last year's epic Greenland melt, or Australia's "angry summer."

    About two-thirds of the authors of those studies refrained from
    stating in their abstracts whether human activity was responsible
    for climate change. But in those papers where a position on the
    claim was staked out, 97.1 percent endorsed the consensus position
    that humans are, indeed, cooking the planet.

    The scientists involved with the new study also asked the authors of
    the peer-reviewed papers for their personal reflections on the
    causes of global warming. A little more than one-third expressed no
    opinion. Of those who did share a view, 97.2 percent endorsed the
    consensus that humans are to blame. Out of the 1,189 authors who
    responded to the survey, just 39 rejected the idea that humans are
    causing global warming.

    But the main reason many Americans still refuse to believe it is
    religious fundamentalism. That is immune to science and reason. But
    it is the bedrock belief of one of our political parties.

http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2013/05/17/settled-among-scientists/

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