[TheClimate.Vote] November 30, 2020 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

Richard Pauli richard at theclimate.vote
Mon Nov 30 12:41:53 EST 2020 

/*November 30, 2020*/

[start with humorous video - thanks CW]
*Brief video show dangers of wind power*
https://twitter.com/i/status/1332804401648562176


[misunderstanding by shifting baselines]
*Climate change is often hidden in the way we are shown temperature data*
Shifting climate baselines conceal warming that occurred in the past; 
our new ‘normals’ differ strongly from normals decades ago...
- -
Pauly coined the term "shifting baseline syndrome" to explain how young 
fishery biologists entering the profession in the 1920s expected bluefin 
tuna to be around, but their children, and especially their 
grandchildren, never saw bluefin tuna in their waters, and thus they 
entered the profession with a new baseline, one that had gradually 
shifted. Pauly contrasted the fishery situation with that of climate 
statistics, where good, detailed climate information is available for 
more than 100 years for many places throughout the world and for much 
longer in some places.

Here is a personal example of the shifting baseline syndrome.

When I first lived in Washington nearly 40 years ago, I ice-skated 
outdoors quite often, including on pools on the Mall and on the C&O 
Canal. I’m too old and out of practice to ice-skate anymore, but even if 
I wanted to, the opportunities are fewer than they were.
- -
One "normal" could be based say on the period 1951-1980, which covers 
some cold and warm periods but also is recent enough that many current 
weather stations existed in their present locations then. It also is 
mostly before the effects of human-caused climate warming were clear. 
That could be used as a reference baseline, one that does not shift, so 
that people could clearly see how the current weather they experience 
has -- or has not -- changed.

The second would be the current 30-year "normals" that are updated 
regularly. They would both be presented, thus providing a clear picture 
of how one of the baselines is shifting. Doing this would heighten 
people’s awareness of climate change, would allow people to see whether 
and how urban sites are changing differently from rural sites, and would 
provide useful and accessible information for policymakers.

David Policansky is a retired scientist who worked in the Division on 
Earth and Life Studies at the National Academy of Sciences.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/11/29/climate-normals-hide-global-warming/
- -
*Anecdotes and the shifting baseline****syndrome of fisheries*
  https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.737.5584&rep=rep1&type=pdf



[5 min video - Antarctic ice loss ]
*Scientists: With Climate Action, Antarctic Melt Could Slow*
Nov 29, 2020
greenman3610
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpfMdAAF7fU

- -

[videos ask - where is the ice in the Arctic]
*Why has NO New Record-Minimum Arctic Sea-Ice Extent occurred since 
September, 2012?? - Part 1, 3 *
Nov 28, 2020
Paul Beckwith
The globe’s seven warmest years have all occurred since 2012, and Arctic 
Temperature Amplification has warmed the north at least 3 times faster 
than the global average. So WHY is Arctic sea ice still hanging on, and 
why hasn’t it set any new record September minimum since 2012? Since 
2000, new record minimums were set in 2003, 2005, 2007, and then 2012; 
but nothing since then. Clearly, there simply must be some negative 
feedbacks going on, but what are they, and what mechanisms are in play?  
I have suggested that the wavy jet streams have brought ridges (warm, 
humid air) from lower latitudes as far north as the North Pole, even 
during the completely dark four month winter periods; meanwhile jet 
stream troughs have carried cool dry polar air as far as the equator, 
and that the jets have even crossed the equator to join with Southern 
Hemisphere jet streams. Both these ridges and troughs result in 
transferring heat from the pole to the equator. I have also made the 
argument that there is Atlantification (and Pacificication) of the 
Arctic Oceans, namely marine heat waves in the northern Atlantic and 
Pacific result in warmer waters entering the Arctic below the surface; 
since density of sea water depends on both temperature and salinity, 
warmer but saltier water is more dense than colder fresher surface water 
and can shoal and melt sea ice from below, and also delay it refreshing 
in the fall after the minimum extent has been reached.

In the new peer reviewed scientific paper on this topic by Jennifer 
Francis and Abington Wu, they argue that since 2012 the ice melt rates 
have been extremely high in the Spring and early Summer from high Sea 
Level Pressure (SLP), leaving both Arctic scientists and the public with 
bated breath, thinking that a new record breaking melt year and minimum 
September sea ice extent was sure to occur. Then, during each 
August/September an abrupt atmospheric shift has occurred, bringing low 
SLP, extreme cloudiness, and unfavourable winds for ice reduction, 
dashing all hopes of a new record minimum or even a Blue Ocean Event 
(BOE) with near 100% ice loss.
Francis and Wu argue that the mechanism for this late melt season 
slowdown is associated with jet stream splitting from diminished spring 
snow cover on northern hemisphere continents, which acts as a negative 
feedback that stalls late summer Arctic sea ice loss. I chat about the 
data and analysis that is behind their ideas.
1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suojcDpmbss
3. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFs0-X4TRsA
- -
[from Yale in October]
*Warmer climate and Arctic sea ice in a veritable suicide pact*
Their 'death spiral' is a vicious melting-warming feedback, leading to 
more melting of snow and ice and still more warming, an ongoing cycle.
By Dana Nuccitelli - Wednesday, October 28, 2020
Think of it as a suicide pact on ice - global warming and Arctic sea ice 
in a mutually destructive relationship.

Earth’s rising temperatures melt Arctic snow and ice, which, as the 
reflective surface cover disappears, reveals the dark land and ocean 
surface beneath. That darkening surface causes the Arctic to absorb more 
sunlight and therefore to warm faster … which in turn leads to more 
melting of snow and ice, ergo resulting in more warming.

Scientists refer to Earth’s surface reflectivity as its "albedo," and to 
the vicious Arctic melting-warming cycle as a "feedback." One action 
precipitates and reinforces another, in this case with Arctic warming 
and ice loss each accelerating the other. As a result, the Arctic is 
warming three times faster than the global average and its sea ice is 
quickly melting away. In summers between 1979 and 2012, Arctic sea ice 
had lost half its surface area and three-quarters of its volume. Some 
climate scientists described this rapid decline as the "Arctic sea ice 
death spiral."

But then came the unexpected - the ice death spiral froze.

The years 2014 through 2020 have been the seven hottest ever recorded on 
Earth, with the resulting heat fueling monster hurricanes in the Gulf of 
Mexico and record wildfires in the western U.S. and Australia. "Ever 
since the record-smashing summer of 2012, Arctic scientists have watched 
melt seasons unfold with bated breath: Will this year break the record 
again? Will this year bring the long-anticipated sea-ice-free summer?" 
said climate scientist Jennifer Francis of the Woodwell Climate Research 
Center. "And almost every August, the rate of ice loss came to a 
screeching halt, averting a new record minimum. But why?"

Defying both the heat and scientists’ expectations, the record minimum 
set in September 2012 still stands, as illustrated in graphic artist 
Andy Lee Robinson’s video, below.
*What froze the death spiral?*
Francis and her co-author Bingyi Wu of Fudan University in Shanghai have 
a theory that the rapid warming in the Arctic prompted a change in the 
polar jet stream, the narrow band of strong wind circling the region; 
they theorize that this change helped preserve some sea ice. Their new 
study in Environmental Research Letters notes that the winter and spring 
sea ice extent reached record low levels nearly every year since 2012 … 
but then the trajectory took a sharp turn late into the summer season, 
with the loss curbing early and therefore avoiding setting a new record 
low annual minimum in September.

Francis and Wu identified a common pattern in atmospheric air 
circulations during many of the summers since 2012: Low-pressure systems 
would develop in the Arctic, forming clouds that kept temperatures cool 
by blocking sunlight and generating winds that spread out the remaining 
ice. These weather systems lingered because a split in the jet stream 
trapped them in light winds that failed to move them along. When the jet 
stream air current slows down, much like a slow water current in a 
river, it develops a meandering wavy pattern rather than a strong 
straight path.

A witch's brew may be leading to temporary decline in the inevitable 
Arctic snow and ice melting caused by global warming.
The authors suggest that the decline in northern latitude snow cover and 
Arctic sea ice resulting from global warming may be contributing to more 
frequent wavy jet stream events. The temperature difference between the 
cold Arctic and warmer lower latitudes creates a force that propels the 
atmospheric air currents. The rapid warming of the Arctic, due largely 
to its increased absorption of sunlight resulting from the melting of 
reflective snow and ice, is decreasing the temperature difference 
between that region and lower latitudes. This in turn has weakened the 
force on the jet stream, leading to more slow meandering air currents. 
The melting Arctic may be slowing its own decline by allowing more 
low-pressure cloudy weather systems to linger in the summer.

But it may only have delayed, not stopped the spiral …
The study finds that these recent atmospheric patterns resemble those 
identified in a 2018 study led by Michael Mann of Penn State University.

"This is a fascinating article, drawing a new linkage between seemingly 
disparate climate change impacts," Mann, not personally involved in the 
Francis/Wu work, wrote via email. "Jennifer Francis has been doing very 
innovative work for years now looking at the relationship between 
amplified Arctic warming and the behavior of the Northern Hemisphere jet 
stream," he wrote.

‘A little bit of good news,’ though only temporary, in ‘otherwise bleak’ 
outlook for Arctic snow and ice.

"In this new article, Francis and Wu demonstrate that a climate change 
impact my co-authors and I have investigated previously, known as 
‘planetary wave resonance,’ which is responsible for many of the extreme 
summer weather events we’ve seen in recent years, may also explain why 
the rate of decline in Arctic sea ice has decreased a bit in recent 
years. A little bit of good news, perhaps, given the otherwise bleak 
outlook for the Arctic as we continue to warm the planet."

As Mann hinted, this jet stream effect can only delay the inevitable 
Arctic sea ice death spiral because the melting effect of ever-rising 
temperatures can be held in check only for so long. In fact, Francis and 
Wu noted that the wind pattern that causes abrupt Arctic cooling didn’t 
occur in the summers of 2019 and 2020, and the sea ice minimum record 
was nearly broken in both years.

Another new study published in Nature Climate Change used the latest 
generation of climate models to simulate Arctic sea ice during the warm 
period 120,000 years ago before the last ice age. The simulations showed 
that during that era, the Arctic was very likely ice-free in the summer. 
The team also ran model simulations for the future and found that summer 
Arctic sea ice likely will be gone between about 2030 and 2050.

*And what happens in the Arctic doesn’t just stay there*
Hungry polar bears facing a shrinking hunting range are not the only 
ones affected by the rapid melting of ice and snow in the Arctic.  A 
growing body of scientific research suggests that while changes in the 
jet stream may have temporarily slowed the death spiral, they also have 
contributed to extreme heat, fires, drought, and floods in regions 
across the northern hemisphere.

The summer cloudy low-pressure Arctic systems, for instance, aren’t the 
only types of weather events made more frequent by the increasingly wavy 
jet stream. Francis and Wu found that conversely, high pressure systems 
have tended to develop at the same time in Canada, east Asia, 
Scandinavia, and the north Pacific Ocean, leading to frequent summer 
heatwaves in those regions.

In addition, a 2017 study in Nature Communications, lead authors Ivana 
Cvijanovic and Benjamin Santer, then with Lawrence Livermore National 
Laboratory, found that the Arctic sea ice decline will lead to more 
high-pressure ridges loitering off the coast of California. This type of 
persistent high-pressure system developed in the winters of 2012-2015, 
diverting rain systems to the north of the state, causing dry conditions 
that contributed to California’s most intense drought in over a millennium.

The 2018 study by Mann and colleagues noted also that other recent 
extreme weather events influenced by the wavy jet stream include the 
deadly 2003 European heat wave, 2010 wildfires in Russia and floods in 
Pakistan, and a 2011 heat wave and drought in Oklahoma and Texas. In 
2018, prominent jet stream waves coincided with high-pressure systems 
causing intense heat in Scandinavia, central Europe, and California 
(contributing to the state’s then-record wildfire season), and also with 
flooding in the eastern U.S. And in a 2018 paper in Nature, James Kossin 
of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found that 
hurricanes have slowed by 10% since 1950. That’s important because 
slower hurricanes wreak more flooding and destruction on the regions 
they strike. This hurricane slowing may also be a result of the 
increasingly wavy jet stream, an issue still a subject of ongoing 
scientific research.

As for the "surprise" of the recent lull in the death spiral, Francis in 
her formal statement about her and Wu’s study commented, "Accumulating 
greenhouse gases affect the Earth’s climate in sometimes unforeseen, 
counter-intuitive ways."

Melting ice opens doors for wider spread of contaminants, diseases
"We must do everything in our power to reduce emissions of greenhouse 
gases, accelerate efforts to remove carbon from the atmosphere, and 
prepare for more surprises ahead," Francis said.
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/10/warmer-climate-and-arctic-sea-ice-in-a-veritable-suicide-pact/

- -

[Francis, Wu paper]
*Why has no new record-minimum Arctic sea-ice extent occurred since 
September 2012?*
Jennifer A Francis and Bingyi Wu
Published 23 November 2020
Environmental Research Letters, Volume 15, Number 11
*Abstract*
One of the clearest indicators of human-caused climate change is the 
rapid decline in Arctic sea ice. The summer minimum coverage is now 
approximately half of its extent only 40 yr ago. Four records in the 
minimum extent were broken since 2000, the most recent occurring in 
September 2012. No new records have been set since then, however, owing 
to an abrupt atmospheric shift during each August/early-September that 
brought low sea-level pressure, cloudiness, and unfavorable wind 
conditions for ice reduction. While random variability could be the 
cause, we identify a recently increased prevalence of a characteristic 
large-scale atmospheric pattern over the northern hemisphere. This 
pattern is associated not only with anomalously low pressure over the 
Arctic during summer, but also with frequent heatwaves over East Asia, 
Scandinavia, and northern North America, as well as the tendency for a 
split jet stream over the continents. This jet-stream configuration has 
been identified as favoring extreme summer weather events in northern 
mid-latitudes. We propose a mechanism linking these features with 
diminishing spring snow cover on northern-hemisphere continents that 
acts as a negative feedback on the loss of Arctic sea ice during summer.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abc047



[opinion manipulation battleground]
*How the oil industry made us doubt climate change*
By Phoebe Keane
BBC News - 19 September. 2020
As climate change becomes a focus of the US election, energy companies 
stand accused of trying to downplay their contribution to global 
warming. In June, Minnesota's Attorney General sued ExxonMobil, among 
others, for launching a "campaign of deception" which deliberately tried 
to undermine the science supporting global warming. So what's behind 
these claims? And what links them to how the tobacco industry tried to 
dismiss the harms of smoking decades earlier?

To understand what's happening today, we need to go back nearly 40 years.

Marty Hoffert leaned closer to his computer screen. He couldn't quite 
believe what he was seeing. It was 1981, and he was working in an area 
of science considered niche.

"We were just a group of geeks with some great computers," he says now, 
recalling that moment.

But his findings were alarming.

"I created a model that showed the Earth would be warming very 
significantly. And the warming would introduce climatic changes that 
would be unprecedented in human history. That blew my mind."
https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-53640382



[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - November 30, 1999 *

Exxon and Mobil complete their merger.

http://money.cnn.com/1999/11/30/deals/exxonmobil/


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