[TheClimate.Vote] September 3, 2020 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/*September 3, 2020*/

[nation of courts]
*Mexican Court to Hear Youths' Climate Change Case Against Government*
By Reuters, Wire Service Content Sept. 2, 2020
MEXICO CITY (REUTERS) - A Mexican court will later this week hear a case 
brought on by 15 young people demanding the government of President 
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador set out clear policies on climate change, 
documents show.

Lopez Obrador is under increased pressure to help mitigate the effects 
of climate change.
The plaintiffs from the state Baja California filed a legal stay of 
proceedings, known locally as amparo, before a district court in 
administrative matters, several documents related to the case show.

In it, the youths, aged 17 to 23, demand clearer regulations and public 
policies derived from the country's existing General Law on Climate 
Change and the Mexican constitution, the documents showed.

All of the documents, which have not been made public, were provided by 
a representative of the plaintiffs.

The hearing is scheduled for Sept. 4 and comes just days after the 
country's environment minister quit.

"There's no bigger mistake than doing nothing based on a belief that one 
can only do little: However small or simple our actions may seem, they 
sow what future generations will reap," said Gema Osorio, one of the 
plaintiffs, aged 20.

"My wish is that even if we don't manage to repair the damages, at least 
we stop continuing to harm the planet," she said on Wednesday...
more at - 
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-09-02/mexican-court-to-hear-youths-climate-change-case-against-government



[maybe it's all about ethics]
*Hoosiers support climate policies -- even if they don't believe in 
climate change*
London Gibson
Indianapolis Star - Sept 2, 2020
- -
"Despite the fact that the problem of climate change is contentious, the 
solutions don't really seem to be, or at least are far less 
contentious," said Matt Houser, a principal investigator for the survey. 
"Not just the majority, but in many cases a strong majority of Hoosiers 
want these resilience policies, even policies we specify would be used 
to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions."...
- -
more at - 
https://www.indystar.com/story/news/environment/2020/09/02/indiana-university-survey-shows-hoosier-support-climate-policies/5677764002/



[coming right up]
*Natural disasters must be unusual or deadly to prompt local climate 
policy change, study finds*
August 24, 2020
CORVALLIS, Ore. -- Natural disasters alone are not enough to motivate 
local communities to engage in climate change mitigation or adaptation, 
a new study from Oregon State University found.

Rather, policy change in response to extreme weather events appears to 
depend on a combination of factors, including fatalities, sustained 
media coverage, the unusualness of the event and the political makeup of 
the community.

Climate scientists predict that the frequency and severity of extreme 
weather events will only continue to increase in coming decades. OSU 
researchers wanted to understand how local communities are reacting.

"There's obviously national and state-level climate change policy, but 
we're really interested in what goes on at the local level to adapt to 
these changes," said lead author Leanne Giordono, a post-doctoral 
researcher in OSU's College of Public Health and Human Sciences. "Local 
communities are typically the first to respond to extreme events and 
disasters. How are they making themselves more resilient -- for example, 
how are they adapting to more frequent flooding or intense heat?"

For the study, which was funded by the National Science Foundation, 
Giordono and co-authors Hilary Boudet of OSU's College of Liberal Arts 
and Alexander Gard-Murray at Harvard University examined 15 extreme 
weather events that occurred around the U.S. between March 2012 and June 
2017, and any subsequent local climate policy change.

These events included flooding, winter weather, extreme heat, tornadoes, 
wildfires and a landslide.

The study, published recently in the journal Policy Sciences, found 
there were two "recipes" for local policy change after an extreme 
weather event.

"For both recipes, experiencing a high-impact event -- one with many 
deaths or a presidential disaster declaration -- is a necessary 
condition for future-oriented policy adoption," Giordono said.

In addition to a high death toll, the first recipe consisted of 
Democrat-leaning communities where there was focused media coverage of 
the weather event. These communities moved forward with adopting 
policies aimed at adapting in response to future climate change, such as 
building emergency preparedness and risk management capacity.

The second recipe consisted of Republican-leaning communities with past 
experiences of other uncommon weather events. In these locales, 
residents often didn't engage directly in conversation about climate 
change but still worked on policies meant to prepare their communities 
for future disasters.

In both recipes, policy changes were fairly modest and reactive, such as 
building fire breaks, levees or community tornado shelters. Giordono 
referred to these as "instrumental" policy changes.

"As opposed to being driven by ideology or a shift in thought process, 
it's more a means to an end," she said. "'We don't want anyone else to 
die from tornadoes, so we build a shelter.' It's not typically a 
systemic response to global climate change."

In their sample, the researchers didn't find any evidence of 
mitigation-focused policy response, such as communities passing laws to 
limit carbon emissions or require a shift to solar power. And some 
communities did not make any policy changes at all in the wake of 
extreme weather.

The researchers suggest that in communities that are ideologically 
resistant to talking about climate change, it may be more effective to 
frame these policy conversations in other ways, such as people's 
commitment to their community or the community's long-term viability.

Without specifically examining communities that have not experienced 
extreme weather events, the researchers cannot speak to the status of 
their policy change, but Giordono said it is a question for future study.

"In some ways, it's not surprising that you see communities that have 
these really devastating events responding to them," Giordono said. 
"What about the vast majority of communities that don't experience a 
high-impact event -- is there a way to also spark interest in those 
communities?"

"We don't want people to have to experience these types of disasters to 
make changes."
https://today.oregonstate.edu/news/natural-disasters-must-be-unusual-or-deadly-prompt-local-climate-policy-change-study-finds

- -

[source material]
Published: 18 August 2020
*Local adaptation policy responses to extreme weather events*
Leanne Giordono, Hilary Boudet & Alexander Gard-Murray
*Abstract*

    At a global level, climate change is expected to result in more
    frequent and higher-intensity weather events, with impacts ranging
    from inconvenient to catastrophic. The potential for disasters to
    act as "focusing events" for policy change, including adaptation to
    climate change risk, is well known. Moreover, local action is an
    important element of climate change adaptation and related risk
    management efforts. As such, there is a good reason to expect local
    communities to mobilize in response to disaster events, both with
    immediate response and recovery-focused activities, as well as
    longer-term preparedness and adaptation-focused public policy
    changes. However, scholars also note that the experience of disaster
    does not always yield policy change; indeed, disasters can also
    result in policy inertia and failure, perhaps as often or more often
    than major policy change. This study poses two key research
    questions. First, we ask to what degree policy change occurs in
    communities impacted by an extreme weather event. Second, we seek to
    understand the conditions that lead to adaptation-oriented policy
    adoption in response to an extreme weather event. Our results
    suggest two main recipes for future-oriented policy adoption in the
    wake of an extreme weather event. For both recipes, a high-impact
    event is a necessary condition for future-oriented policy adoption.
    In the first recipe for change, policy adoption occurs in Democratic
    communities with highly focused media attention. The second, less
    expected recipe for change involves Republican communities that have
    experienced other uncommon weather events in the recent past. We use
    a comparative case approach with 15 cases and fuzzy set qualitative
    comparative analysis methods. Our approach adds to the existing
    literature on policy change and local adaptation by selecting a
    mid-N range of cases where extreme weather events have the potential
    to act as focusing events, thereby sidestepping selection on the
    dependent variable. Our approach also takes advantage of a novel
    method for measuring attention, the latent Dirichlet allocation
    approach.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11077-020-09401-3



[read write]
*Literary figures join Extinction Rebellion campaign against thinktanks*
Jessica Murray - 2 Sep 2020
Margaret Atwood among those supporting Writers Rebel group set to 
protest in London
A number of famous novelists, poets and playwrights including Margaret 
Atwood and Zadie Smith have lent their support to an Extinction 
Rebellion campaign against the political influence of rightwing 
thinktanks fighting against climate action.

On Wednesday evening the Writers Rebel group will demonstrate outside 55 
Tufton Street in London, a venue known to host meetings of thinktanks 
and lobbying outfits linked to climate science denial and the oil industry.
These include the the Global Warming Policy Foundation, the most 
prominent climate sceptic group in the UK, and free market thinktank the 
Centre for Policy Studies, whose deputy chair is Sir Graham Brady, chair 
of the influential 1922 Committee of backbench Conservative MPs.

A group of 20 high-profile writers will attend the event, including 
White Teeth author Zadie Smith, who said: "The heroes of this historical 
moment are climate activists: they are trying to save us all - primarily 
from ourselves. Anything the rest of us can do to acknowledge, support 
or further their work, we should try to do."

She will be speaking at the event, while The Handmaid's Tale author 
Atwood lent her support via video message. "Climate change due to human 
activity is not a theory, it is not an opinion, it is a fact," she said. 
"Denial of this fact in the interests of big money will lead to our 
extinction as a species."

Other attendees will include writer and activist George Monbiot, and Sir 
Mark Rylance, actor and first artistic director of Shakespeare's Globe 
Theatre.

At the launch of the campaign last week, writer and actor Stephen Fry 
said people had a duty to "expose the lies" of climate change denial.

"It's sickening how much money is being spent on thinktanks and 
professional lobbyists to spread confusion, lies and doubt on the 
subject of man-made climate change and its horribly real threat," he said.

"These people and their huge corporations funding them are utilising 
exactly the same playbook that big tobacco used to sow doubt and 
confusion over the clear scientific evidence that emerged about smoking."

The demonstration is being organised in conjunction with with the 
nascent Extinction Rebellion group Money Rebellion, which will target 
the finance industry for its inaction on the climate emergency.
Gail Bradbrook, co-founder of Extinction Rebellion, said: "The current 
economic system we have is killing life on earth and we desperately need 
a grown up conversation about something different.

"Bodies like [thinktank] the Institute of Economic Affairs won't reveal 
their funders and yet are often given airtime to advocate for free 
market fundamentalism, as if it is a law of nature.

"We want a citizens' assembly to rewire our economic system so that it 
stops harming and starts repairing the damage done."

The event is taking place as part of XR's 10-day protest to demand 
government action on the climate crisis, during which dozens have 
already been arrested.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/02/literary-figures-join-extinction-rebellion-campaign-against-thinktanks

- -

[Margaret Attwood speaks on video + transcript]
*Margaret Atwood | Writers Rebel | Extinction Rebellion UK*
Sep 2, 2020

*Transcript*

    Hello my name is Margaret Atwood, I'm a writer
    I've been writing about planet damage since the 1980s.
    Time is now running out faster and faster.
    Climate change due to human activity is not a theory.
    It is not an opinion. It is a fact.
    Denial of this fact, in the interests of big money will lead to our
    extinction as a species.
    If the oceans die so will we.
    They make 60 to 80 percent of the oxygen that we breathe.
    Politicians must now face up to facts.
    it's not too late,  but it's almost too late.
    I'm old, so I will most likely not live to see the worst effects of
    inaction -
    - but you will
    please act now for your own sakes
    it's in your hands
    good luck

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCGO-HTuMhM

- -

[More writers]
*Writers Rebel extinction rebellion*
https://writersrebel.com/



[long practiced in the US]
*Climate change: Power companies 'hindering' move to green energy*
By Matt McGrath
Environment correspondent
1 September 2020
New research suggests that power companies are dragging their feet when 
it comes to embracing green energy sources such as wind and solar.

Only one in 10 energy suppliers globally has prioritised renewables over 
fossil fuels, the study finds.

Even those that are spending on greener energy are continuing to invest 
in carbon heavy coal and natural gas.

The lead researcher says the slow uptake undermines global efforts to 
tackle climate change.

Bread price may rise after dire UK wheat harvest
How the UK contributes to global deforestation
What Greta Thunberg did with her year off school
New UK law to curb deforestation in supply chains
In countries like the UK and across Europe, renewable energy has taken a 
significant share of the
- -
"So it's not greenwashing. It is just that this parallel investment in 
gas dilutes the shift to renewables. That's the key issue."
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53951754

- -

[Nature Energy - source]
*A global analysis of the progress and failure of electric utilities to 
adapt their portfolios of power-generation assets to the energy transition*
Galina Alova
Published: 31 August 2020
*Abstract*
The penetration of low-carbon technologies in power generation has 
challenged fossil-fuel-focused electric utilities. While the extant, 
predominantly qualitative, literature highlights diversification into 
renewables among possible adaptation strategies, comprehensive 
quantitative understanding of utilities' portfolio decarbonization has 
been missing. This study bridges this gap, systematically quantifying 
the transitions of over 3,000 utilities worldwide from fossil-fuelled 
capacity to renewables over the past two decades. It applies a 
machine-learning-based clustering algorithm to a historical global 
asset-level dataset, distilling four macro-behaviours and sub-patterns 
within them. Three-quarters of the utilities did not expand their 
portfolios. Of the remaining companies, a handful grew coal ahead of 
other assets, while half favoured gas and the rest prioritized 
renewables growth. Strikingly, 60% of the renewables-prioritizing 
utilities had not ceased concurrently expanding their fossil-fuel 
portfolio, compared to 15% reducing it. These findings point to 
electricity system inertia and the utility-driven risk of carbon lock-in 
and asset stranding...
- -
In view of these findings, it is unsurprising that the utilities 
continue to dominate global FF-based electricity generation, holding 
over 70% of operating coal and gas capacity in 2018. A large share of 
these assets is far from its retirement age, with a third being added in 
the last ten years4; and unless retired early and resulting in asset 
stranding, these power plants are here to stay for decades, leading to 
carbon lock-in.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-020-00686-5


[excellent WBUR NPR audio report]
*28 Trillion Ton Ice Melt Spells Danger For Sea Level Rise, Climate Change*
A total of 28 trillion tons of ice has disappeared from the Earth's 
surface since 1994, according to the results of a study that shocked the 
U.K. researchers who conducted it.

This report fulfills the worst-case scenario that was predicted by the 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 30 years ago. Scientists from 
Leeds and Edinburgh universities and University College London predict 
that by the end of this century, sea level could rise by more than 3 feet..
- -
At this point, it's unrealistic to think we will be able to cool the 
planet back down, but what we can do is slow down the rate at which the 
Earth continues to warm, Shepherd says. Hopefully, we can do so at a 
rate slow enough to allow us to adapt.

"We're living in a time when ice is melting everywhere on the planet, 
and now we've got 20 or 30 solid years of satellite measurements," he 
says. "It's really impossible for people to deny that that's happening."
https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2020/09/01/28-trillion-ton-ice-melt

- -

[source material]
*Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 
2300 from an expert survey**
**Abstract*
Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are 
vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit 
projections from members of the scientific community regarding future 
global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally 
conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway 
(RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL 
rise of 0.30-0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54-2.15 m by 2300, relative to 
1986-2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise 
of 0.63-1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67-5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 
2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the 
projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original 
survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% 
(current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will 
exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the 
Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 
Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. 
Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in 
upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential 
studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the 
meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet...
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-020-0121-5



[peak is Sept 10th]
*Wednesday Morning Tropical Update: Hurricane Nana expected to form this 
week*
Sep 2, 2020
WWLTV
Tropical Storm Nana developed in the western Caribbean and is well on 
it's way to becoming a hurricane prior to landfall in Honduras or Belize 
on Thursday. Tropical Storm Omar, though upgraded this afternoon, 
remains very disorganized off the East coast and regardless of 
development, is not a threat to land.

Elsewhere, there are two waves the NHC is monitoring. One with a low 
chance for development between the Islands and the west coast of Africa 
and a wave about to emerge off Africa with a medium percent chance for 
development in the next 3 to 5 days. As I said, this is certainly not a 
surprise and all we can do is take the season one day at a time. And at 
this time, there are no immediate threats to Louisiana or the Gulf of 
Mexico.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_kqzgdNoRU


[video explanation]
*Return of Very Rapid, Record Setting Greenland Ice Sheet Loss as 
Detected by GRACE-FO Satellites*
Aug 28, 2020
Paul Beckwith
A brand spanking new paper (Sasgen et al.) analyzed data from Gravity 
Recovery And Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO) satellites launched 
3 years ago. Key finding: for 2019, the Greenland Ice Sheet lost a net 
equivalent of 1 million tonnes of ice per minute (7 Olympic size 
swimming pools per second). This 532 GT (billions of tonnes) year loss 
was the worst in centuries (even millennia) more than doubled the 
average loss per year between 2003-2019 of 255 GT; in fact July melt 
alone was around this yearly average. Persistent Jet Stream blocking 
over Greenland caused this new and alarming record.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vxloe_yJOo


[facing biggest threat - video]
*UCLA Launches Climate Change Health Center*
This is a threat to our planet and everyone one it, Dr. Jonathan Felding 
says. Patrick Healy reported on NBC4 News on Wednesday, Sept. 2, 2020.
https://www.nbclosangeles.com/on-air/ucla-launches-climate-change-health-center/2422643/



[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - September 3, 2008 *

In his address to the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, 
Minnesota, former Maryland Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele blows off 
concerns about climate change by proclaiming: "Drill, baby, drill!"

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/09/03/steele-gives-gop-delegates-new-cheer-drill-baby-drill/tab/article/ 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdSsOnVWhic 
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