[✔️] August 1, 2021 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[👀 Richard Pauli]

/*August 1, 2021*/

[a new month]
*Soaring heat, dry conditions in West lead to fire warnings; California 
faces potential power outages*
The Dixie Fire, the largest wildfire burning in California, is expected 
to see increased fire behavior Saturday due to drying conditions. 
Meanwhile, the state is preparing for potential power outages.
- -
Excessive heat -- combined with extreme drought in Western states -- is 
a challenge for battling wildfires. In Oregon, red flag warnings are in 
place as thunderstorms are expected to create new fire starts from 
lightning strikes over "critically dry fuels," the National Weather 
Service said Saturday. Nine new fires were reported in the last day, the 
National Interagency Fire Center said...
- -
At least 87 fires are burning across the country, with weather 
conditions over the weekend conducive to new fire starts in some areas 
of the West, including Oregon, according to the National Weather 
Service. More than 2,700 square miles have been consumed by fire so far...
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/07/31/wildfire-updates-new-fire-warnings-west-california-power-outages/5443378001/

- -

[cough, cough]
*Dangerous B.C. air quality is among the worst on the planet*
Isabella O'Malley
Digital Reporter, Environmental Scientist
Saturday, July 31st 2021 - Hundreds of wildfires in B.C. and a stagnant 
atmospheric pattern are contributing to hazardous air quality.
Friday brought the worst air quality on Earth to British Columbia. The 
usual culprits in China, India and Iran were fair in comparison to the 
southern Interior. Castlegar, B.C., had a daily average air quality 
index of 415 --marking the third worst day in the past seven years and 
the first time two days have exceeded 400 in the same year. Tuesday's 
index reading was 404.

Some of the most dangerous components in wildfire smoke are carbon 
monoxide and microscopic, ultrafine particles called PM 2.5, which are 
2.5 microns in diameter or smaller and cause health complications when 
they enter the lungs or bloodstream...
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/dangerous-british-columbia-air-quality-is-among-the-worst-on-the-planet

- -

[Near Paradise]
*In the shadow of Paradise, nearby residents make uneasy peace with fire*
Smoke, closed businesses and constant worry have changed life for those 
living with disaster on their doorstep
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/31/california-towns-fire



[video]
*Why fossil fuel companies should be lawyering up*
Jul 30, 2021
DW Planet A
Corporations and governments have mastered the art of dodging the bullet 
when it comes to tackling climate change. But now they're in trouble. 
Climate activists around the world are taking them to court in climate 
litigation cases– and they're winning.

We're destroying our environment at an alarming rate. But it doesn't 
need to be this way. Our new channel Planet A explores the shift towards 
an eco-friendly world — and challenges our ideas about what dealing with 
climate change means. We look at the big and the small: What we can do 
and how the system needs to change. Every Friday we'll take a truly 
global look at how to get us out of this mess.

0:00 Intro
0:52 Suing governments
3:21 Inaction as human rights violation
5:01 Children suing polluters
6:11 Fossil fuel companies losing
8:37 Climate litigation as a solution?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVYzHgHx8U4



[lower lake]
*Lake Oroville feet away from historic low, could beat record in coming 
days*
OROVILLE, Calif. — How low can Lake Oroville go? While losing over a 
foot of water each day, historically low is the answer.

The lake is on track to beat its lowest recorded record: 645 feet above 
sea level in September 1977. Friday, it sits at 646.97 feet, just feet 
away from a new record.

This could drop dramatically further to 620 feet by late October, 
according to Molly White, Water Operations Manager for the Department of 
Water Resources (DWR)...
https://krcrtv.com/news/local/lake-oroville-feet-away-from-historic-low-could-beat-record-in-coming-days 




[agreed]
*Our biggest enemy is no longer climate denial but climate delay*
Ed Miliband - Fri 30 Jul 2021
Nothing is more dangerous than the illusion of action – which is all 
that the British government is offering
Future generations will look back on the climate events of 2021 and say: 
“That was the year they ran out of excuses.”

Heatwaves and flooding here in the UK, temperatures topping 50C in 
Pakistan, hundreds killed by a heatwave in British Columbia, deadly 
floods in Germany and China. All within a single month. Add to that the 
recent dire warning from the Met Office that the age of extreme weather 
has just begun.

The wake-up call that this offers is not just the obvious one: that 
climate breakdown is already here. It also illustrates that we, in this 
generation, are in a unique position in the history of this crisis. 
Climate breakdown can no longer be plausibly denied as a threat etched 
only in the future. And all too soon, avoiding it may be a luxury lost 
to the past. The window to avoid catastrophe is closing with every 
passing day. We’re in the decisive decade in this fight, and we must 
treat the climate crisis as an issue that stands alone in the 
combination of its urgency and the shadow it casts over future generations..
The actions we take defy the normal rhythm of political cycles. What we 
do in the next few years will have effects for hundreds of years to 
come. Unless the world cuts emissions in half in this decade, we will 
probably lose the chance to avoid warming of significantly more than the 
1.5C set out in the 2015 Paris accord. We have seen the catastrophic 
effects of a world warmed by just 1.2C. What happens if we get to 2.5 or 
3C? By then, we’ll look back at recent summers as not the hottest we’ve 
ever had but, in all likelihood, the coolest we will ever have again.

The accompanying truth is that our biggest enemy is no longer climate 
denial but climate delay. The most dangerous opponents of change are no 
longer the shrinking minority who deny the need for action, but the 
supposed supporters of change who refuse to act at the pace the science 
demands. As Bill McKibben, environmentalist and climate scholar, says on 
climate: “Winning slowly is the same as losing.”...
- -
Meanwhile, we know that inaction is entirely unaffordable, leaving 
massive costs of climate damage racked up and left for future 
generations. The OBR also tells us that delay will significantly raise 
the cost of action, in part because we are baking high carbon into our 
infrastructure. We will have to make the transition at some point; 
failing to act now will betray our children and grandchildren and will 
just end up costing more.

We should act now not just because we must avoid future generations 
living in a disaster movie but because rewriting the script can produce 
a better world. Rapid decarbonisation is the imperative, but we can do 
so in a way that fixes the inequalities that exist in our current 
economic system. This is the promise of the Green New Deal – that this 
transformative programme of investment can also generate good jobs, help 
existing industries transition and create new ones, ensure warmer homes, 
cleaner air, and a lasting shift in wealth and power across our country. 
This is the vision we must fight for.

Particularly, in this year of all years, what we do here at home has 
real impacts around the world. If other governments believe that a 
country that has led the way on climate is full of hot air, it simply 
undermines trust and lets the big polluters off the hook. In the less 
than 100 days left to COP26, the prime minister must finally wake up to 
the fact that this is not a glorified international photo opportunity 
but a complex and fragile negotiation where he must deliver at home and 
engage in the hard yards of diplomacy.

Just over 50 years ago, Martin Luther King said of the fight for racial 
and economic justice: “We are now faced with the fact that tomorrow is 
today. We are confronted with the fierce urgency of now. In the 
unfolding conundrum of life and history, there is such a thing as being 
too late.” As the generation that stands astride the causes and 
consequences of this climate emergency, we must take heed of those words.

Ed Miliband is the Labour MP for Doncaster North and shadow business, 
energy and industry secretary
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/30/climate-denial-delay-inaction-british-government



[learning something from observations]
*Good wildfire news? Evidence from the Bootleg Fire supports thinning 
forests.*
A story from Oregon offers lessons for a dried-out, overheated West.
Nathanael Johnson - - Jul 26, 2021
The Nature Conservancy had been preparing for this moment for decades. 
The Jim Castles research station sits at the north end of the Sycan 
Marsh reserve: 30,000 acres of mixed wetland and dry pine forest in the 
Klamath Basin, which the nonprofit acquired in the 1980’s. The 
conservation group worked with the Klamath Tribes that call this area 
home to restore the forested areas to the landscape that existed before 
Americans took over the land and began putting out fires. They cut down 
small trees, leaving fire-adapted specimens like thick-barked ponderosa 
pines, and they began setting fires, allowing them to consume decades of 
needles and branches on the forest floor...
- -
In the next few years, scientists will scrutinize the Sycan Marsh to see 
how the Bootleg Fire reacted to different types of forest management, 
Caligiuri said, which will help people understand how to tame wildfires. 
There’s a long way to go, but neighbors across the West are organizing 
community groups to thin trees and conduct prescribed burns, while state 
and federal agencies are ramping up spending to increase this kind of 
management. People are starting to move in the right direction, Hepner 
said, “and yet sometimes conditions seem to be outpacing us.”
https://grist.org/extreme-weather/wildfire-bootleg-fire-news-forests/


[maybe change the name to Highway 61]
*Will climate change and a rising ocean mean the end of the road for NC 
Highway 12?*
The highway runs the length of the Outer Banks, supporting the economy, 
welcoming tourists and often providing a lifeline for residents. But as 
sands shift and the sea rises, can N.C. 12 survive?
The road runs the length of the developed Outer Banks. It is a crucial 
engine for the region’s economy and a lifeline for year-round residents 
of the region’s small coastal towns. Now, engineers, scientists and 
homeowners are making choices about how to best protect the highway and, 
thus, the villages it supports.

A handful of flood- and erosion-prone spots along Highway 12 have posed 
particular problems for local officials and transportation engineers for 
almost a century. Sea levels in the Outer Banks are rising twice as fast 
as they are along North Carolina’s southeastern coast and storms are 
strengthening, heightening urgency among officials to find new answers 
to an old problem.

The choices facing the Outer Banks are particularly stark, but they are 
similar to those people in many other parts of the state and country 
will face as climate change’s effects continue to worsen: At what cost 
do you maintain homes, businesses and livelihoods in a place that is 
gravely imperiled?...
- -
“When sand is deposited through overwash, that is the land form 
adjusting to changing conditions,” Moore said. “Every time we reset 
island elevation by removing that sand, we’re increasing vulnerability 
as sea level continues to rise. We’re trying to hold the elevation of 
the island fixed as the sea level is rising around it.”...
- -
“It’s scary having to worry about somewhere that you grew up your whole 
life and you slowly see the water coming up and you slowly see the 
storms taking more and more with it, and it’s hard making decisions and 
having to worry about other things other than here,” Barley said.

Barley isn’t sure she’ll come back to Hatteras Island after she walks 
across the graduation stage in Greenville, possibly as soon as 2023.

“If I find a better opportunity somewhere else, then I probably won’t,” 
Barley said.

“But this is always home,” she continued. “I don’t think anywhere that I 
ever move would ever feel as much like home as this place does.”
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/state/north-carolina/article252949138.html


[Dark outlook]
*Why the Paris Climate Agreement Might be Doomed to Fail*
An economist argues that the international accord, which depends on 
collective action, does not include the kinds of incentives and 
penalties that would ensure that countries do their part.

By Nicholas Kusnetz - - July 28, 2021
Not long before the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, Scott Barrett 
wanted to test how likely it was that the pact would work. As an 
economist who studies international cooperation, Barrett decided to 
design a game to model how the signatories might behave.

Poker chips stood in for emissions cuts. The goal was to avoid 
“catastrophe,” which players could achieve by contributing some of their 
chips to a collective pot. Just as no one knows the exact level of 
emissions cuts necessary to avoid a given amount of warming, the players 
did not know exactly how many chips the pot needed to avoid catastrophe, 
only that the threshold lay within a certain range.

Players were told to agree on a common goal for the pot, and to make 
pledges for their own contributions. If they avoided catastrophe, 
everyone received a substantial pay-out. If they failed, each player was 
given only a small number of chips, creating a clear incentive to reach 
the goal.
Barrett is the vice dean of Columbia University’s School of 
International and Public Affairs, and designed the experiment with 
Astrid Dannenberg, a behavioral and environmental economist at the 
University of Kassel, in Germany. The key question was whether the 
“name-and-shame” structure of the Paris Agreement, in which governments 
periodically review each others’ pledges, would lead countries to make 
steeper emissions cuts.

Barrett and his colleague ran many rounds of the game with different 
players, and the result was clear: The pact’s design led players to 
agree on a higher collective goal, and to make more ambitious individual 
pledges. But for the most part, players ended up contributing fewer 
chips than they had promised, barely giving more than they would have 
without the “name-and-shame” design, which did little to avoid catastrophe.

The outcome of the game illustrates a problem inherent to climate 
change: Success or failure is determined only by whether the collective 
goal is achieved, regardless of how much any single country contributes. 
So while countries are all but assured of a bad outcome if they don’t 
take action, they could be even worse off if they limit their own 
emissions sharply but others do not.

“What they want is some kind of assurance that others will contribute,” 
Barrett said.

The game showed that the Paris accord, like the global climate pacts 
that preceded it, fails to provide this assurance, Barrett said...
- -
India initially resisted joining the agreement. At the time, the country 
was planning to expand the production and use of CFCs. But in 1992, as 
it saw its potential trading market shrink because it could not make 
deals with countries that had signed, and with the promise of payments 
to help phase out CFCs if it joined, India signed the protocol.

In contrast, in 2015, not long before signing the Paris Agreement, India 
announced plans to double its coal production. “And the rest of the 
world just pretty much shrugged its shoulders,” Barrett said.

India wanted to develop its economy and reduce poverty. Burning more 
coal was the simplest way to do that, and the accord gave no compelling 
incentives to look at alternatives.

“If you have an effective system for negotiation,” Barrett said, “then 
what the rest of the world should have said is, ‘Of course we understand 
why you want to do that. But if you do that, you’re going to undermine 
your future development as well as that of everyone else. And’—this is 
really critical—‘Here’s another technology that gives you the same 
energy you would have gotten from coal, and the only reason you’re not 
going to it in the first place is because it’s more expensive. But we’re 
going to pay you the difference.’”...
To work, Barrett said, diplomats would also have needed a stick to 
punish India if it didn’t agree, as they did with the trade barrier in 
the Montreal Protocol.

One of the key shortcomings of the Paris Agreement, Barrett argues, is 
that it fails to address the “free-rider problem,” which stems from the 
fact that countries would enjoy the benefits of global efforts to limit 
emissions regardless of their contributions. This creates a temptation 
to ride on the emissions cuts of other nations, and can doom the overall 
effort: If everyone shirks, the global cuts never materialize.

“And that’s been the whole problem from the beginning,” he said. “We’ve 
had 30 years of negotiations, more diplomatic effort on this than any 
other in all of world history, and all this time global emissions have 
been rising.”...
- -
“Climate change is going to produce winners and losers, and if you’re a 
loser, you’re going to fight like hell to make sure that climate 
regulation doesn’t move forward,” said Jessica Green, an associate 
professor of political science at the University of Toronto. “And in 
fact, that’s what we’ve seen.”

Green and others identify the decades-long fight waged by the fossil 
fuel industry as the most important force holding back change. They 
point to studies that have demonstrated the well-known effects of 
lobbying by oil and gas companies, and to research findings that run 
counter to the idea that global climate efforts have been stymied by the 
collective action problems Barrett studies.

“I think that the capture of political processes by fossil capital is a 
huge, huge problem, and it is the first order problem,” Green said. 
“Unless you deal with that, you can’t make meaningful progress. You make 
incremental progress, and that’s what we’ve done.”

 From this perspective, Montreal’s success hinged on the support it 
received from the chemical industry. But this glosses over an important 
detail: It was the agreement itself that helped bring the industry on board.

“When the Montreal Protocol was signed, there was opposition all the way 
up to the signature,” said Stephen Andersen, who was working at the EPA 
on ozone-depleting substances at the time, and has devoted his career to 
supporting the protocol.

“In fact, when the deal was made in Montreal, industry was 
flabbergasted. They thought they’d blocked it,” Andersen said. Only 
about two-dozen countries joined the agreement initially, “but as soon 
as it was signed, industry started looking at it and saying, ’Well, if 
this is what’s happening, what should we do?’”...
- -
Barrett acknowledges that Montreal is an imperfect analogue for the 
Paris Agreement. While CFCs were used in a relatively narrow set of 
products, fossil fuels power the global economy. DuPont and other 
chemical companies were in the best position to produce alternatives, 
but it is not clear whether oil companies have any competitive advantage 
in the renewable energy sector or other fields.

But he is not alone in thinking that the Paris Agreement’s avoidance of 
trade restrictions misses an important opportunity to press countries to 
act.

“Trade is the thing that drives climate change,” said Diann Black-Layne, 
ambassador for climate change for Antigua and Barbuda and lead climate 
change negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States. “If you block 
the importation of goods and services—and please include services—you 
would have a transition like you would not believe.”
- -
“We do have good signs that the Paris Agreement is starting to work the 
way it was intended to work,” said Nathaniel Keohane, president of the 
Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, a climate change think tank. 
“If it works, it would be because it creates a framework where countries 
have to set targets and then are expected to live up to them, and where 
their progress is monitored and reported on and there’s a real degree of 
transparency. Now we are just on the cusp of that.”

Barrett said he is not optimistic. But he also doesn’t favor replacing 
or renegotiating the Paris Agreement. “The message isn’t that Paris is 
bad, it’s not,” he said. “The message is that Paris is not enough.”

Instead, Barrett points to a more obscure agreement as a model, one that 
piggy-backed on the Montreal Protocol and could help countries meet 
their targets under the Paris accord. In 2016, nations agreed on the 
Kigali Amendment, which targets hydrofluorocarbons, potent greenhouse 
gases that were developed as ozone-friendly replacements for CFCs. 
Notably, the chemical industry and Republican Senators pressed the Trump 
administration to join the agreement, but the White House delayed 
ratification of the amendment. President Joe Biden initiated the process 
in January.

Barrett said diplomats should work to create smaller, more technical 
agreements that could supplement the Paris Agreement, focusing, for 
example, on emissions cuts in particular industries. These agreements 
would lack the dramatic appeal of the Paris accord, especially because 
any gains they achieved would necessarily be incremental and limited. 
Barrett is not even convinced that these types of pacts could limit 
warming to within the Paris agreement targets, but he thinks it’s the 
best shot we’ve got.

“This approach we’re taking of trying to do everything together hasn’t 
worked,” he said. “Let’s try to build some other agreements. And yeah, 
each one is not going to solve the problem, but each one will do 
something. And maybe we can start, over a period of time, start to piece 
things together.”

Nicholas Kusnetz
Reporter, New York City
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28072021/pairs-agreement-success-failure/



[Oreskes video - historian of science]
*Is Climate Change the End? And if so, the End of What?*
Mar 28, 2019
Case Western Reserve University
Naomi Oreskes - -March 22, 2019
https://youtu.be/Gc7RNrh8i-A

- -

[David Suzuki]
*Why it’s time to think about human extinction | Dr David Suzuki*
Dec 16, 2018
Kerwin Rae
After listening to this ep with Dr David Suzuki, you’ll never be the 
same again. The environmentalist, activist, professor of genetics and 
science broadcaster hits us with some home truths about what our future 
will look like if we continue to live the way we have been. What will 
life be like for our children and grandchildren? Can the damage we’ve 
done to the planet be reversed? Is extinction of the human race imminent?

We talk about population control, the importance of renewable energy and 
discuss what we can do right now in our own lives that can actually make 
a difference. This is for anyone who cares about the future of mankind.
Timestamps:

    00:00 Introduction to Dr David Suzuki
    20:06 Why humanity has only got 1 minute left to live
    25:25 Humans are the only species that don't care about their own
    children
    29:17 Educate yourself on politics or don't complain about the
    government
    36:26 Can we be saved from our own extinction?
    59:09 A final challenge for entrepreneurs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktnAMTmgOX0



[Big Think has made an excellent video]
*Will America’s disregard for science be the end of its reign? | Big Think*
Oct 3, 2020
Big Think
--------------------------------------------
 From America's inception, there has always been a rebellious, 
anti-establishment mentality. That way of thinking has become more 
reckless now that the entire world is interconnected and there are added 
layers of verification (or repudiation) of facts.

As the great minds in this video can attest, there are systems and 
mechanisms in place to discern between opinion and truth. By making 
conscious efforts to undermine and ignore those systems at every turn 
(climate change, conspiracy theories, coronavirus, politics, etc.), 
America has compromised its position of power and effectively stunted 
its own growth.

A part of the problem, according to writer and radio host Kurt Andersen, 
is a new media infrastructure that allows for false opinions to persist 
and spread to others. Is it the beginning of the end of the American empire?
----------------------------------------------
TRANSCRIPT:

    KURT ANDERSEN: Americans have always been magical thinkers and
    passionate believers in the untrue. We were started by the Puritans
    in New England who wanted to create, and did create, a Christian
    utopia and theocracy as they waited for the imminent second coming
    of Christ and the end of days. And in the South by a bunch of people
    who were convinced, absolutely convinced, that this place they'd
    never been was full of gold just to be plucked from the dirt in
    Virginia. And they stayed there looking and hoping for gold for 20
    years before they finally, finally faced the facts and the evidence
    and decided that they weren't going to get rich overnight there.

    So that was the beginning. And then we've had centuries of 'buyer
    beware' charlatanism to an extreme degree and medical quackery to an
    extreme degree, and increasingly exotic, extravagant, implausible
    religions over and over again from Mormonism, to Christian science,
    to Scientology in the last century. And we've had this
    anti-establishment, "I'm not going to trust the experts. I'm not
    going to trust the elite," in our character from the beginning. Now,
    all those things came together and were supercharged in the 1960s
    when you were entitled to your own truth and your own reality. Then,
    a generation later when the internet came along, giving each of
    those realities, no matter how false or magical or nutty they are,
    their own kind of media infrastructure.

    We had entertainment, again, for our whole last couple 100 years,
    but especially in the last 50 years, permeating all the rest of
    life, including presidential politics, from John F. Kennedy through
    Ronald Reagan to Bill Clinton. So, the thing was set up for Donald
    Trump to exploit all these various American threads and
    astonishingly become president. But then you look at this history
    and it's like, "Oh, we should've seen this coming."

    TYSON: The power of journalism: A mistake becomes truth. The print
    journalism is taking what I said and turning it into an article, so
    it has to pass through the journalist, get processed, and then it
    becomes some written content on a page. One hundred percent of those
    experiences, the journalist got something fundamentally wrong with
    the subject matter. And just as an interesting point about the power
    of journalists, I had people read the article and say, "Neil, you
    must know better than that. That's not how this works." They assumed
    the journalist was correct about reporting what I said, not that I
    was correct and that the journalists was wrong. This is an
    interesting power that journalists have over whether you think what
    they're writing is true or not. That was decades ago. In recent
    years, what I think has happened is that they're more journalists
    who are science fluent that are writing about science than was the
    case 20 years ago. So now I don't have to worry about the journalist
    missing something fundamental about what I'm trying...

Read the full transcript at 
https://bigthink.com/videos/anti-science-pro-conspiracy-america
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S58vlJwhwDw



[Great question]
*Could sea level rise cut off Nova Scotia from the rest of North America?*
Friday, July 30th 2021, 5:18 pm - Experts say that sea level rise is 
having a noticeable impact in Atlantic Canada and is putting some towns 
in jeopardy.
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/could-sea-level-rise-cut-off-nova-scotia-from-the-rest-of-north-america 




[The news archive - looking back]
*On this day in the history of global warming August 1, 1988*

Sacramento, California-based right-wing talk radio host Rush Limbaugh 
begins his nationally syndicated program; over the next three decades, 
Limbaugh aggressively promotes the notion that climate science is a "hoax."

    RUSH TO JUDGMENT
    Attacking environmentalists as hippie-dip “wackos” who care more
    about spotted owls than people and use polar bears for propaganda,
    Rush Limbaugh has blinded millions of Americans to the climate crisis.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2007/05/wolcott200705
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2007/05/wolcott200705


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